Big news on the polling front as Newspoll unveils its first set of results based on what The Australian describes as “an improved methodology following an investigation into the failure of the major published polls”. The old series had been limping on post-election with results appearing every three weeks, but this latest result emerges only a fortnight after the last, presumably portending a return to the traditional fortnightly schedule.
The poll credits the Coalition with a two-party lead of 51-49, compared with 50-50 in the result a fortnight ago, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (up one), Labor 33% (down two), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 5% (down two). Interestingly, both leaders’ personal ratings are a lot worse than they were in the old series: Scott Morrison’s approval rating is at 43% (down three) with disapproval at 52% (up nine), while Anthony Albanese is at 38% approval (down four, though he was up five last time) and 42% disapproval (up five, though he was down seven last time). No news yet on preferred prime minister, which is presumably still a thing (UPDATE: Morrison’s lead narrows from 46-32 to 46-35).
On the methodological front, the poll has dropped robopolling and is now conducted entirely online. The sample size of 1519 is similar to before (slightly lower in fact), but the field work dates are now Thursday to Saturday rather than Thursday to Sunday. In a column for the newspaper, Campbell White of YouGov Asia-Pacific, which conducts the poll, offers the following on why robopolling has been abandoned:
A decade or so ago, most people had landlines and they tended to answer them. There was very little call screening. This meant getting a representative sample was easier and pollsters did not need to be so skilled in modelling and scaling their data. The truth is, the old days are never coming back. In order to do better, we need to consider what we can do differently. We’ve seen a consistent pattern overseas where telephone polling has become less accurate and online polling more so as fewer people answer phone calls and more and more people are online.
White further notes that “annoying and invasive” robopolling is “answered largely by older people or those who are very interested in politics”, while “busy people who are less interested in politics either don’t answer or hang up”. He also reveals that the new series will “weight the data by age interlocked with education and have precise quotas for different types of electorate throughout Australia”, consistent with YouGov’s methodology internationally.
Hopefully the restated commitment to “greater transparency” means we will shortly see comprehensive details of demographic breakdowns and weightings, a commonplace feature of British and American polling that Australian poll watchers could only envy. Stay tuned.
William Bowe @ #6 Sunday, November 24th, 2019 – 11:12 pm
Of course they do. I notice unusual names popping up from time to time to make a comment then they fade back into the ether. So they must be reading it as well. Maybe most of them are on the East Coast and they were tucked up in bed last night?
lizzie @ #50 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 7:03 am
Because your short term memory goes before your long term memory does as you age.
C@t
I know that, but I’m wondering why this tiny snippet of knowledge has been saved when dates of my childhood have disappeared, or the name of my best friend at school.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. It appears the Fin Review has blocked Just Read from accessing articles.
Australian authorities are investigating claims that a Chinese espionage ring tried to install an agent for Beijing in a seat in Federal Parliament. Bloody hell!
https://www.smh.com.au/national/china-tried-to-plant-its-candidate-in-federal-parliament-authorities-believe-20191122-p53d9x.html
Peter Hartcher writes about Richard Marles’ suggestion calling for bipartisan group to make policy on China.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/unique-dilemma-calls-for-bipartisan-group-to-make-policy-on-china-20191124-p53dmy.html
The SMH editorial says that these China revelations are a major wake-up call.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/china-revelations-a-major-wake-up-call-20191124-p53dmx.html
An angry David Crowe explains how the Morrison government is flouting the laws on Freedom of Information.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-government-flouts-law-on-freedom-of-information-20191124-p53dn1.html
Eryk Bagshaw tells us how Coalition MPs are increasingly unpicking one of the few significant legacies of the former Labor government. Australia’s response to the global financial crisis.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-s-attempt-at-rewriting-history-unfolding-before-our-eyes-20191124-p53dkv.html
Sean Kelly concludes his interesting contribution with. “The only failures that matter now are the ones ahead. “Accepting the science” no longer means believing in climate change, it means accepting that catastrophic events are on their way unless we act pretty much immediately. We can ignore this if we like, go on deluding ourselves that politics can be discussed the way it used to be. But if we do, there will be consequences, and nobody will be able to protect us from them.”
https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-political-classes-are-stuck-and-the-consequences-could-be-catastrophic-20191124-p53di8.html
Westpac has just announced that it will scrap or trim the bonuses of its executive team following allegations it committed 23 million breaches of money laundering laws. Bloody bonuses! They SO often drive bad behaviour.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6508441/westpac-to-cut-executives-bonuses/?cs=14231&utm_source=website&utm_medium=home&utm_campaign=latestnews
Josh Taylor tells us how Scott Morrison continues to avoid questions about Brian Houston.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/24/gossip-how-scott-morrison-continues-to-avoid-questions-about-brian-houston
Dana McCauley explains how Labor will use the last parliamentary sitting weeks of the year to renew its attack on Angus Taylor over a seemingly doctored report released by his office, with climate change in voters’ minds amid ongoing drought and bushfires.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/angus-taylor-to-face-fresh-attack-over-doctored-council-travel-expenses-20191123-p53dev.html
In an industry where there is significant unused capacity Australia’s public dental service has a waiting list that is blowing out.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/public-dental-treatment-waiting-list-grows-to-almost-90-000-20191120-p53cg8.html
Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz says that it’s time to retire metrics like GDP. They don’t measure everything that matters.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/24/metrics-gdp-economic-performance-social-progress
John Pesutto explains why we all benefit if the public service is free to give frank and fearless advice, while understanding that its stature as an institution must be zealously guarded.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service-must-be-free-to-give-frank-and-fearless-advice-20191122-p53d39.html
Government’s Commonwealth Integrity Commission will not stamp out public sector corruption. Law academic Yee-Fui Ng explains why this is so.
https://theconversation.com/governments-commonwealth-integrity-commission-will-not-stamp-out-public-sector-corruption-heres-why-127502
Alan Jones’ 2GB Breakfast Show has lost about half its advertising revenue after a boycott over the radio veteran’s comments about Jacinda Ardern. Ha ha!
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/alan-jones-radio-show-revenue-down-by-50pc-as-boycott-bites-20191124-p53dif.html
Samantha Dick writes that South Australia is shifting to renewable energy faster than any other state or territory. This is despite the federal government’s “lack of leadership” and continued support for major fossil fuel projects, says the Climate Council.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/11/25/renewable-energy-winners/
And Nine Entertainment Co’s The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald were the most-read publications across print and digital in Sydney and Melbourne in September, surpassing their News Corp rivals.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/age-sydney-morning-herald-secure-biggest-audiences-in-september-20191124-p53dhg.html
The New Daily says that Sydney is considered “affluent” but a disproportionate chunk of locals’ wages go to rent or a mortgage, in a trend threatening to drive workers away and hurt the city’s future as a global economic leader.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2019/11/25/sydney-committee-housing/
Richard Flannagan blasts Morrison for treating us like children.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/25/scott-morrison-and-the-big-lie-about-climate-change-does-he-think-were-that-stupid
Analysis of more than 50 Victorian private schools – Catholic, independent, single sex and co-ed – has found that some are charging up to $500 for children to be added to a waiting list, with no guarantee of a place.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/i-don-t-envy-parents-trying-to-negotiate-it-the-waiting-game-for-private-school-enrolments-20191122-p53bxo.html
Dana McCauley tells us that health insurers are appealing to federal Health Minister Greg Hunt to fast-track reforms aimed at helping lower their costs.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/health-insurers-hit-back-after-minister-rejects-premium-rise-20191124-p53dl0.html
International security expert Dr Allan Orr has warned Australia needs to significantly ramp up investment in fire-fighting equipment and be prepared for the possibility of terrorists starting bushfires. He describes our fire strategy as abysmal.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/international-security-expert-slams-australia-s-abysmal-fire-strategy-20191121-p53cp2.html
Labor will not support the Ensuring Integrity Bill under any circumstances, writes William Olson.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/amendments-to-union-busting-bill-made-in-secret,13340
Michael Bloomberg has jumped into the US presidential race, ending months of speculation over whether he would join the Democratic contenders looking to unseat Republican President Donald Trump in the November 2020 election. Yet another old white rich man
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/billionaire-businessman-bloomberg-joins-the-race-for-the-white-house-20191125-p53dny.html
House intelligence committee chairman Adam Schiff blasted former national security adviser John Bolton for failing to appear for testimony in the impeachment inquiry while teasing a forthcoming memoir.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/nov/24/trump-impeachment-adam-schiff-bolton-republicans-democrats
Trump’s impeachment shows US officials at their best and his allies at their worst writes Robert Reich.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/24/trump-impeachment-fiona-hill-alexander-vindman-witnesses
A U.S. policy shift on the Israel settlements in the Middle East leaves no room for a two-state solution.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/illegal-israeli-settlements-find-us-support,13345
Reporting on Boris Johnson’s election manifesto release Latika Bourke reports that Australian nurses and other skilled workers could gain better access to the UK if he wins a majority in the British election.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/boris-johnson-unveils-progressive-manifesto-with-nhs-spending-blitz-20191125-p53do1.html
Jacqui Maley was appalled with Prince Andrew’s interview and can’t wait for a rekindled debate on Australia becoming a republic.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/prince-andrew-s-disgrace-will-revive-republic-debate-bring-it-on-20191122-p53d5z.html
And Catharine Mayer writes that until his actions put the monarchy at risk, Prince Andrew benefited from a culture of impunity that protects rich and powerful men.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/24/planet-windsor-like-westminster-has-a-real-problem-with-women-prince-andrew
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe. Words fail me!
Pat Campbell and Westpac’s laundering.
From Matt Golding
From the US
Ah, now I get it! Morrison’s secondary boycott legislation is being ginned up to help out 2GB and specifically Alan Jones:
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/alan-jones-radio-show-revenue-down-by-50pc-as-boycott-bites-20191124-p53dif.html
Among others. So it looks as though, Marketing Man Morrison has looked at this new form of activism and decided that he doesn’t like it so, as Prime Minister, he has decided to can it.
Also, speaking of Morrison, it was interesting to read a snippet about the way he conducts party room meetings compared to his predecessors. Apparently, he comes in with a Powerpoint presentation, tells everyone to be quiet while he speaks to it, tells them what to go out and do and say, and that’s it! Total. Control. 😯
‘Coalition MPs are increasingly unpicking one of the few significant legacies of the former Labor government. Australia’s response to the global financial crisis.’
And Labor will………..?
Any word on when Essential plans to start polling voting intention again?
Liberals must be proud to know they were chosen to represent China in the government!
HongKongFP tweets
Stand News reports as of 4am that the pro-democracy camp has won at least 240 confirmed District Council seats – over half of the 452 total elected seats – compared with the pro-Beijing camp’s 28 confirmed seats. https://twitter.com/HongKongFP/status/1198699544063574017/photo/1
lizzie @ #53 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 7:12 am
I read once that our brain has a lot to store in its memory and an ageing brain has more and more to store every day, so it prioritises. Thus an interesting line from a poem probably has more stickability than the name of a best friend who you don’t see anymore. 🙂
lizzie @ #58 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 7:28 am
*cough* Gladys Liu. If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again?
BK
“Bypass Paywalls” on Firefox seems to work ok for AFR articles.
Ignore that last one. Wrong publication.
Definitely too early in the morning for moi. It does work.
“Good morning Dawn Patrollers. It appears the Fin Review has blocked Just Read from accessing articles.”
***
To get around the AFR’s paywall all you need to do is prevent the article’s page from finishing loading. Start hitting your ESC key (PC version of Chrome) as soon as the full text of the article pops up to get it to stop loading before the paywall overlay loads on top of it.
Are Dutton and Morrison any better? Well, maybe a teensy bit.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/24/china-cables-leak-no-escapes-reality-china-uighur-prison-camp
lizzie @ #58 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 7:28 am
Pretty sure they didn’t want to be in opposition for the next 10 years.
mundo
That is a non-sequitur. Or, in English, off the subject.
I’m wondering how many of those insect-zapping ‘lights’ have been purchased in Australia.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/22/light-pollution-insect-apocalypse
lizzie @ #69 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 8:12 am
Sorry.
12 years.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/25/scott-morrison-and-the-big-lie-about-climate-change-does-he-think-were-that-stupid‘ asks Richard Flannergan.
Err, yes?
mundo
You’re 12 years old?
mundo certainly doesn’t have the stomach for the fight, does he? Snarking on PB at Labor involves much less energy expenditure.
C@t
It is said that Labor will attack Angus Taylor this week. This is their last week of the year. Do you think this is really the most important avenue of attack?
Morning all, thanks BK for the news of Alan Jones’ ad revenue woes. The problem is they invariably come back after the brouhaha has died down.
lizzie @ #75 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 5:22 am
If Labor didn’t keep the focus on Angus Taylor people would be criticising them for being silent about Angus Taylor.
Just face it, Labor is always in the wrong no matter what it does according to some people.
Labor should be focusing on climate change. Given the contents of Taylor’s missive to Clover Moore it’s doing exactly the right attack.
Highlighting the lengths the LNP will go to in running away from facts.
lizzie @ #73 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 8:18 am
51 years ago.
C@tmomma @ #52 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 7:05 am
I was listening to an interesting talk recently about the importance of forgetting. There are ‘memory’ neurotransmitters and ‘forgetting’ neurotransmitters (that’s a very rough sketch) and we just can’t store everything, and life would be impossible if we couldn’t forget a lot of stuff. How many women would have more than one child without forgetting.
Also, being in the ‘now’ involves eliminating the reality of the past and the prospect of the future.
Otherwise, good morning! Rain a comin’ I hear.
Looks like Team Trump went scrambling to assemble evidence that supported Trump’s Ukraine decision.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/white-house-review-turns-up-emails-showing-extensive-effort-to-justify-trumps-decision-to-block-ukraine-military-aid/2019/11/24/2121cf98-0d57-11ea-bd9d-c628fd48b3a0_story.html
I’ve just had my tonic to get me through another day in Morristan.
Anyone else care for a nip. He used to fight tories you know.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iJfPHuqu8ZA
If Angus Taylor had been a Labor Minister, the Noise Machine would have kept the ‘doctored documents’ affair on the pages thes elast few weeks since it arose.
frednk @ #41 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 6:47 am
You stuffwit, the whole of my post was about so-called thermal, or steaming coal. ALL metallurgical ‘coal’ is of much higher actual coal (ie combustible) content than steaming coal. Metallurgical (coking) coals form coke when heated in the absence of oxygen, thermal coals form a pile of ash.
Your drooling post quite beautifully demonstrates my point about pig ignorance.
Sean Kelly, former adviser to Labor prime ministers Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard
https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-political-classes-are-stuck-and-the-consequences-could-be-catastrophic-20191124-p53di8.html
Steve777 @ #83 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 8:44 am
And with a decent bit bastard-in-yer-face-tory-fighting Labor should have been able to achieve same. They’re not even trying.
I’m sorry.
I’m just the messenger.
lizzie @ #74 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 8:22 am
I thought there were 2 weeks to go.? And yes, it is always of utmost importance to claim a Minister’s scalp. Like taking a bishop or a knight in chess. Their removal damages the king. 🙂
Anyway, Angus Taylor, and his family, are bad for the polity in 7 different ways from Sunday!
So, who’s a Captain Haddock this morning, then?
yabba @ #84 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 8:44 am
‘To be fair most have worked out their is a difference between thermal and metallurgical coal.’
You mean like they’ve worked out the difference between fttp and fttn?
Yeah, right.
Confessions @ #80 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 8:38 am
Yeah. All that ‘I want nothing. No quid pro quo’ that Trump is rabbiting on about now are patently post facto attempts to tamper with the evidence, so to speak.
Steve777 @ #82 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 8:44 am
Which is why it is vitally important for Labor to try and compel Morrison to schedule more parliamentary sitting days next year. It’s the only place where they can put him under the scrutiny that is sorely needed.
guytaur
“ Highlighting the lengths the LNP will go to in running away from facts.”
—————
guytaur, telling lies and then further deliberately and falsely claiming a political opponent was responsible for inappropriate behaviour is far more serious than “running away from facts”.
Ms Macauley’s article on Mr Taylor’s forgery toils and troubles omits the answer to a significant question, ‘What is the status of Labor’s referral of Mr Taylor to the NSW police?’
The police had been taking a long time to consider the referral.
As I understand it, ‘considering a referral’ is what one does before either deciding NFA, or launching an investigation.
Given that the NSW justice system was being politcally corrupted on several fronts* when the referral was made it would hardly surprise were the NSW police to quietly decide to NFA the Referral.
But what sort of journalist fails to even ask that question?
IMO, a pathetic journalist.
*Including the ludicrous situation in which the NSW police were conducting an inquiry into their own minister’s behaviour while said minister had not been stood down, including the continuing failure to police water theft with any zest, and including the serial failure to prosecute farmers who have breached land clearing laws.
lizziesays:
Monday, November 25, 2019 at 8:18 am
Intellectually it would appear so! 🙂
lizzie
Don’t listen to the envious meanies.
You have the sort of cultural depth earned through three score years and ten.
With age comes wisdom, through youth comes scorn.
Well done!
You want to know what the secret to Alan Jones’ initial success was? He got up early and was there for the people who were also getting up early for work back in the day when Sydney began to expand beyond its natural physical boundaries and people moved further out to the exurbs where they could afford a house. Also because employers were making people start work earlier. So, Alan Jones was there for them to provide them with light entertainment and commentary on the issues of the day. Also, many cars back then only had AM radios, so there wasn’t much choice when you got into the car.
Of course, he also had the gift of the gab, but he also knew what his audience were interested in and so he could insert his own spin on that. And so people got used to him, and then they became dependant on him for a point of view that spoke to them. And they have remained loyal to him, pretty much, ever since.
I should know, my parents were a couple of those people.
Any Labor or Green peeps who criticize Morrison’s number of sitting days might care to know that the ACT has more or less the same number of sitting days per year.
Let’s face it, taking time to achieve nothing much is a political art form all its own.
Boerwar @ #95 Monday, November 25th, 2019 – 9:04 am
It’s me they’re being mean to.
Nobody is ever mean to Lizzie.
Boerwar:
The police investigation into the doctored documents is obviously going nowhere. It was a month ago that Labor referred the matter to police, and since then nothing.
mundosays:
Monday, November 25, 2019 at 9:06 am
Probably because Lizzie engages her brain before commenting.