Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

A slight lead for the Coalition in the first results to emerge from a new-look Newspoll, which has dropped automated phone calls in favour of an exclusively online polling method.

Big news on the polling front as Newspoll unveils its first set of results based on what The Australian describes as “an improved methodology following an investigation into the failure of the major published polls”. The old series had been limping on post-election with results appearing every three weeks, but this latest result emerges only a fortnight after the last, presumably portending a return to the traditional fortnightly schedule.

The poll credits the Coalition with a two-party lead of 51-49, compared with 50-50 in the result a fortnight ago, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (up one), Labor 33% (down two), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 5% (down two). Interestingly, both leaders’ personal ratings are a lot worse than they were in the old series: Scott Morrison’s approval rating is at 43% (down three) with disapproval at 52% (up nine), while Anthony Albanese is at 38% approval (down four, though he was up five last time) and 42% disapproval (up five, though he was down seven last time). No news yet on preferred prime minister, which is presumably still a thing (UPDATE: Morrison’s lead narrows from 46-32 to 46-35).

On the methodological front, the poll has dropped robopolling and is now conducted entirely online. The sample size of 1519 is similar to before (slightly lower in fact), but the field work dates are now Thursday to Saturday rather than Thursday to Sunday. In a column for the newspaper, Campbell White of YouGov Asia-Pacific, which conducts the poll, offers the following on why robopolling has been abandoned:

A decade or so ago, most ­people had landlines and they tended to answer them. There was very little call screening. This meant getting a representative sample was easier and pollsters did not need to be so skilled in modelling and scaling their data. The truth is, the old days are never coming back. In order to do better, we need to consider what we can do differently. We’ve seen a consistent pattern overseas where telephone polling has become less accurate and online polling more so as fewer people answer phone calls and more and more people are online.

White further notes that “annoying and invasive” robopolling is “answered largely by older people or those who are very interested in politics”, while “busy people who are less interested in politics either don’t answer or hang up”. He also reveals that the new series will “weight the data by age interlocked with education and have precise quotas for different types of electorate throughout Australia”, consistent with YouGov’s methodology internationally.

Hopefully the restated commitment to “greater transparency” means we will shortly see comprehensive details of demographic breakdowns and weightings, a commonplace feature of British and American polling that Australian poll watchers could only envy. Stay tuned.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

968 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 15 of 20
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  1. swamprat @ #697 Tuesday, November 26th, 2019 – 2:48 pm

    C@tmomma

    “They were also into theft and war as well. So, likely the answer is yes, red-blooded capitalism was part of their DNA. ”
    —-

    There is a logical error or two here.

    While capitalists steal (the surplus value of labour) not all who steal are capitalists.

    While the capital class are willing to engage in war not all who engage in war are capitalists 🙂

    Australia did NOT at all have a capitalist society/economy before the first fleet arrived. 🙂

    So, Indigenous Australians were simply bloodthirsty, thieving barbarians then? 😀

  3. Swamprat:

    While capitalists steal (the surplus value of labour) not all who steal are capitalists.

    One can wear two hats and be both a capitalist and an arsehole. If a sometime capitalist steals it is an exploration of the arsehole-capitalist’s arsehole side, not of the capitalist side.

    In short – all who steal are arseholes. Some may also be capitalists, but that is coincidental and (largely) irrelevant. Now one can observe a clear correlation between arseholes and people who called themselves capitalists, but that fact that someone claims to be a capitalist does not make it so. Just as it is the nature of an arsehole to steal, so too it is in the nature of of an arsehole to offer any excuse at all to justify arseholery.

  5. C@tmomma @ #691 Tuesday, November 26th, 2019 – 2:37 pm

    I don’t think anyone has put up Essential’s latest fortnightly poll yet:

    https://essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport

    Thanks. More confirmation of what most of us already know …

    61% believe that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity. This is consistent with previous results in Mar’19 (62%) and Oct’18 (63%).

    By age groups, those aged 18-34 were most likely to believe in man-made climate change (74%) and those over 55+ least so (50%).

    …

    60% now think Australia is not doing enough to address climate change, this has increased from 51% in March 2019.

    Those people most likely to think Australia was not doing enough include young people aged 18-34 (69%), Greens voters (87%) and Labor voters (72%).

    You would think Labor would be more interested in gaining the support of the progressive “18-34” voter (approx 27% of the population) than the more conservative “over 55” voter (about 24% of the population) … but apparently not.

    I guess they figure most of these votes will go to the Greens, and they will pick up a good chunk of them without any effort.

    They may be right … but this just highlights how counter-productive the attacks by some Labor people here on the Greens really are. They will drive away the very voters that could get them elected. 🙁

  6. nath, have you read Gibbons’ Rise and Fall?

    ??? Edward Gibbon? Do you mean “(The History of the) Decline and Fall (of the Roman Empire)”?

  7. sprocket
    “nath, have you read Gibbons’ Rise and Fall?”

    Has anyone? I haven’t. It’s apparently beautifully written, but now extremely outdated.

    For Roman history, I much prefer Adrian Goldsworthy.

  8. swamprat
    How society is structured is political and Australia’s indigenous groups did have clearly defined social structures. Political structures are closely related to capital as it is usually the case that people closest to power are the same people that own land and have money but like most things there isn’t an iron clad rule.

    Capital can also apply to knowledge because a person that is an expert will be sort after that is why many societies place a premium on education because knowledge is power.

    Capitalism in the neoliberal form is showing signs of failure because its a theory that downplays the importance of the state and all political/economic systems need strong administrative processes in place to be sustainable.

  10. bakunin:

    I’m not sure how many PBers have read Fernand Braudel’s “Civilization and Capitalism – 15thC to 18thC”? None?

    I haven’t, but I think it is highly relevant in particular to observe:

    capitalism is something different from the market economy, a distinction that should be kept in mind in understanding Civilization and Capitalism.

    Deliberate conflation of the two and associated obscurantism is at the core of the rentiers’ tricks.

  13. nath
    “Most of the Roman Empire was agrarian,”

    More so in the western half of the Empire. The eastern Roman Empire was much more urbanised (which they inherited from Hellenistic civilisation), hence why Christianity took root there more rapidly.

  14. Whoa!

    First sentence from Ch 1 of Gibbon’s Rome:

    ‘In the second century of the Christian Aera, the empire of Rome comprehended the fairest part of the earth, and the most civilized portion of mankind.’

  15. sprocket_
    says:
    Tuesday, November 26, 2019 at 3:02 pm
    nath, have you read Gibbons’ Rise and Fall?
    _________________
    Yes but its been a while.

  16. Rome some say was the most civilized with its willingness to accept different cultures as long as they bent the knee but at the same time it was a brutal society with a love of sports that would horrify most people today.

  17. Uh oh. A bad omen for wee Angus 🙂

    3m ago 23:29

    As the frontbench of the government moves out, Scott Morrison reaches across and pats Angus Taylor on the back.

    But he does it just inside the door, where it starts to go dark

  18. Braudel is equally uncomfortable with Max Weber and any attempt to tie capitalism to the Protestant reformation (see Stanley Engerman’s essay in this project). Again, his first line of attack would be to point to all of the developments in the Italian city states that long pre-dated Luther and Calvin.

    Dont forget Mandevilles bees.

    Capitalism can be just a tool. Its role is dependent on the culture of the society using it – which is where Weber is so useful and the comparisons in definition and history interesting.

    An axe can cut wood for warmth, shelter and to clear for farming. It can also be used to whittle. Or murder someone. Or threaten someone into doing what you want them to do.

    Capitalism must be view in the perspectives of time, place, culture and society. Culture can act as a restraint or softener on capitalism. It can also do the opposite.

    What is scary is that capitalism can itself be a changer of culture. Gordon Gecko is everywhere these days.

  19. I really liked Colleen McCullough’s historical fiction set in Rome. At least the first 3 books which were excellent. Her research was pretty good, and I find it easy to read historical fiction, as long as it is accurately researched.

  20. Amy Remeikis overheard a couple of Liberal backbenchers making snide remarks about The Guardian.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/nov/26/coalition-labor-china-morrison-albanese-politics-live

    If they are not worried, then they should be.

    Guardian Australia has grown to become the fifth most popular news website in the country, with 3 million unique visitors every month, according to the latest figures from Nielsen. It has more online readers than News Corp Australia’s mastheads the Australian and the Daily Telegraph.

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/jul/31/guardian-australia-reports-first-profit-2018-annual-results

    What’s more, The Australian print edition looks like the flush button has been pressed and it is spiralling around the pan.

    The Australian newspaper today claimed 1,803,000 print readers of their Monday to Friday newspaper – fake news? Roy Morgan average issue readership of The Australian (Monday to Friday) is 291,000 (down 12,000 in a year) and The Weekend Australian 547,000 (down 38,000 in a year).

    https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8209-roy-morgan-emma-readership-september-2019-201911250501

    News Ltd will only continue to prop up this loss maker while Rupert has control. After that ….?

    Anyway, it’s time the AEC investigated it as an “associated entity” of the Liberal Party

  21. @Maude Lynne

    I read the Australian edition of The Guardian, however not the British one, for various reasons.

    The British print edition of The Guardian is around 130,000 copies daily, maybe if an Australian print edition came out, maybe the copies sold could as much as The Australia (around 90,000 on weekdays) or even more.

  22. Victoria @ #711 Tuesday, November 26th, 2019 – 3:23 pm

    I thought Labor referred this to police a while ago.

    1

    Terry Australis
    @AustralisTerry
    ·
    1m
    NSW Police investigating documents used by Angus Taylor to accuse Clover Moore of excessive travel expenditure https://abc.net.au/news/2019-11-26/angus-taylor-clover-moore-fraudulent-documentation-investigation/11734708?pfmredir=sm… via
    @abcnews
    #auspol #qt #senate

    They have to go through a process of getting permission for, and establishing a task force, to look into the matter, setting out terms of reference and alotting investigators. It actually seems quite a quick turnaround to me.

  23. The Roman Republic (and the Principate that followed) assimilated local elites from across the Empire, not the common people. It was elitist, not egalitarian. Over time (usually several generations), these local elites were absorbed into the Roman imperial elite. Local grandees became senators, and could even go on to become emperors. There were senators (and emperors) of African, Gallic, Hellenic, Syrian, etc descent, all drawn from the local nobilities.

    Things changed in the third century AD, when professional soldiers rose through the ranks, and seized command by force. The empire was then ruled by military emperors, usually men of humble birth, raised in the camp.

  24. Maude Lynne
    I think the Guardian is okay but prefer the U.K version, i find the Australian edition presents a slanted view of the world that seems at odds with the outside world and plays to a commenting community that can be extreme. It does somethings well but it tends to focus on negative stories while ignoring positive stories so i can see why Liberal MP’s are dismissive of it. It will be interesting to see how it performs when there is a ALP government.

  26. 60% now think Australia is not doing enough to address climate change, this has increased from 51% in March 2019.

    Those people most likely to think Australia was not doing enough include young people aged 18-34 (69%), Greens voters (87%) and Labor voters (72%).

    Rising expectancies in relation to climate change – both that it is human-induced and that more should be done to respond to it – will translate into rising support for the LNP once that party revises its denialism and avows a more activist policy position. This is just about inevitable. They have been winning the politics of climate change hitherto. They will find a way to make it work for them in the future too.

  27. Tristo,

    The Australian print edition has been making serious losses for some years now. It survives because Rupert uses it as a propaganda sheet, which is why it should be investigated as an “associated entity”.
    Foxtel profits have subsidised it in the past, but even these profits are under threat.

    I doubt The Guardian will want to start another loss making print paper.

  29. Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, November 26, 2019 at 3:22 pm

    Chief Rabbi Mirvis gets stuck into the British Labor Party…

    This is a matter of great sadness.

  31. Poroti

    “The Australian newspaper is Rupert’s baby and he its proud father. It will be safe as houses while he is alive.”

    Indeed it will

  32. Albanese on Taylor:

    Anthony Albanese:

    This Prime Minister will do anything to avoid scrutiny and today the shutting down of the debate in the parliament about his embattled minister for emissions reduction just highlighted the lack of respect for scrutiny that this Prime Minister has.

    The Prime Minister mightn’t want scrutiny from the parliament or from the crossbench or indeed from the media where he refuses to answer questions but he can’t avoid scrutiny by the New South Wales Police Force with their strike force that they have launched, operation Garrad into the behaviour of the minister for emissions reductions.

    …We know from the scrutiny that has occurred from outside of the metadata from that website that this document did not come from the website.

    We don’t know where it came from but we know that it was given to The Daily Telegraph by the minister’s office. And now we have an investigation, a strike force by the New South Wales Police Force into this fraudulent document and the minister under section 7.1 of the ministerial Code of Conduct is subject to the Prime Minister’s decision as to whether he should step aside or not.

    Now Arthur Sinodinos, stepped aside, no doubt with the encouragement of the then coalition minister over something where there wasn’t a police investigation, there was an inquiry by the ICAC into his conduct.

    He stepped aside voluntarily.

    This minister cannot survive this day. The Prime Minister needs to stand him aside today.

    This farce where by a minister has continued to just have this born to rule mentality on display for all, thinking that he can get away with anything he likes because he’s above the common people, and indeed the parliament, well the fact is he is accountable.

  34. The government’s grubby union-busting bill looks to be getting support from Hanson, Centre Alliance and Lambie. Debate goes today, and tomorrow if needed.

    Only Labor and Greens opposed.

  36. For reasons unknown even to myself I’ve been watching reverse-scammer YouTubes over the last couple of days.

    These are where a computer savvy “victim” receives (actually often goes out looking for) scam calls or pop-ups (always from India) and then turn tables and plays the scammer for hours. They record these conversations and put them out as YouTube videos.

    The scammers sometimes end up making threats of imprisonment, court action, even murder against their victims if they don’t pay up. Some of their tactics are truly disgusting.

    The reverse scammers on their part sometimes disguise their voices to sound like “bimbos”, old ladies, rednecks etc. in order to get the scammers thinking they are on to an ignorant, but red hot prospect.

    It’s wonderful to watch the reverse scammers use the remote computer connection established at the scammer’s request to clandestinely delete or download hundreds of thousands of files from the scammer’s computer, while the scammer thinks they are the ones doing the ripping off.

    The point is that the initial scammer message and the threatening tones used against vulnerable people reminded me of what I have heard about the tactics used by the government’s Robodebt scammers: unsupported demands, claiming to be law enforcement officers, inflexibility, vicious greed, and lack of pity.

    Let us not forget that Robodebt was introduced under Morrison’s Treasurership.

    Pretty sick, actually.

  37. poroti says: Tuesday, November 26, 2019 at 4:06 pm

    The Australian newspaper

    ******************************************************************

    The Australian newspaper – a daily publication Making the Ignorant More Ignorant and the Crazy Crazier

  38. Nothing to see here hey zoomster:

    Deputy Premier James Merlino was one of seven Labor MPs and candidates who received donations from controversial property developer John Woodman ahead of the 2018 state election….
    The donations were part of significant backing by Mr Woodman and his companies to state Labor ahead of the 2018 election which totalled nearly $160,000….
    On Monday the inquiry heard Mr Woodman claim the Victorian Labor Party regularly indicated support for major development projects in return for political donations….

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/ibac-casey-hearings-kingmaker-developer-boasts-he-appointed-council-s-new-ceo-20191126-p53e6q.html

  40. RI @ #726 Tuesday, November 26th, 2019 – 4:00 pm

    Rising expectancies in relation to climate change – both that it is human-induced and that more should be done to respond to it – will translate into rising support for the LNP once that party revises its denialism and avows a more activist policy position. This is just about inevitable. They have been winning the politics of climate change hitherto. They will find a way to make it work for them in the future too.

    So there is nothing Labor can or should do except roll over and approve new coal mines?

    Are you sure you are a Labor party member?

  41. poroti says: Tuesday, November 26, 2019 at 4:21 pm

    phoenixRED

    Or as they like to think.

    The Australian : Rupert’s Hand on the Ship of State’s Tiller since 1964

    ***********************************************************

    If you don’t read The Australian you are UNinformed, If you do read The Australian you are MISinformed

  43. Morrison might care to poke his head outside Parliament House and observe the dust storm depositing free topsoil on our property and countless other parts of the ACT and NSW.

    He might then like to explain to the farmers and graziers what he intends to do about their denuded properties.

  44. Peter Lewis, Essential poll

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2019/nov/26/scott-morrison-is-no-paul-keating-but-he-risks-a-similar-fate-in-2022-if-hes-not-careful

    When it comes to climate change – despite all the self-serving assertions that Labor’s ambition cost it power – people still believe the government is asleep at the wheel. In fact the number of people thinking the government isn’t doing enough is at an all-time high of 60%, significantly up from pre-election polling.
    :::
    As for all that “climate manners” baloney that as the east coast burns “now is not the time” to talk about climate change, Australians are stronger than ever here too: call a spade a flaming shovel, PM!

    The last leader to try this line on, Tony Abbott, generated way more purchase. Back then half the population rejected the link. Now 60% see the connection, and most of these reckon now’s a reasonable time to have the discussion.

  45. IBAC

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-26/developer-john-woodman-used-councillors-like-pawns-ibac-hears/11735110

    The Victorian Greens said the community had lost faith in the state’s planning system in the wake of the IBAC investigation and called for a royal commission to investigate urban planning rezoning and land sales.

    Greens leader Samantha Ratnam introduced a motion into the Victorian Parliament, calling for a royal commission to examine a number of decisions including those relating to Fishermans Bend, Phillip Island and Docklands.

    “The IBAC hearings are providing hourly damning indictments on our planning system: the deep influence between property developers and the people elected to represent the community, who seem to represent property developers more than the community,” Ms Ratnam said.

    “We need a deep dive investigation into what’s happening and we need to clean up the system and restore the community’s faith in our planning system.

    “Casey is the tip of the iceberg. We’ve had decisions after decision over decades and we need this investigation broadened up.”

  46. boerwar:

    [‘It will be interesting to see whether the Coalition maintains their form, which is to say ministers simply refuse to answer police questions.’]

    Given Taylor’s propensity to stuff up everything he touches, and although he’s said he’d fully cooperate, he’d be a fool to submit himself to questioning by a task force established to enquire into the fraudulent travel records that he and/or his underling(s) passed to the DT – unless, that is, he can throw someone else under a bus. Again, excepting certain situations, one’s right to remain silent is a fundamental right.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/nsw-police-investigating-angus-taylor-over-alleged-fraudulent-documents-20191126-p53e9r.html

  47. Victorian Greens call for Royal Commission into planning system

    https://greens.org.au/vic/news/victorian-greens-call-royal-commission-planning-system

    Today the Victorian Greens will introduce a motion calling on the Government to establish a Royal Commission into the state’s planning system.

    The planning system is supposed to serve the community but too often decisions are made in the interests of property developers and their profits.

    The Royal Commission would investigate the integrity of a number of urban planning, rezoning and land sale decisions including:

    The rezoning of Fisherman’s Bend
    The Docklands redevelopment
    The Kensington public housing redevelopment and associated subsidised land sale
    The Ventnor rezoning of land in Phillip Island
    The development at 661 Chapel Street in South Yarra
    The proposed Commission would also investigate expansions of the urban growth boundary made by planning ministers since 2000.

    Leader of the Victorian Greens, Samantha Ratnam, said it was important that the relationship between political donations and planning decisions be made transparent.

    Quotes attributable to Leader of the Victorian Greens, Samantha Ratnam MLC:

    “Governments at all levels should represent their citizens, rather than accepting dodgy donations and caving to the demands of property developers.

    “The IBAC investigation into Casey council has already exposed what we’ve known all along – that property developers are in the pockets of our councillors and state politicians. This is only the tip of the iceberg.

    “A broader Royal Commission would ensure transparency behind potentially corrupt planning decisions and let Victorians know whether their best interests are being served or not.”

  48. EGT….

    The definition of ‘technology’ should be elaborated. Clearly, these days technology explicitly includes ‘knowledge’ and constitutes ‘intellectual property’. That is to say, technology is not necessary material. It is sometimes purely conceptual. This gives rise to the possibility – really, the certainty, that artificial intelligence will be proprietary too. Intelligence itself – and not merely the products of intellectual effort, which is a form of ‘labour’ – is in the process of being commoditised.

    In capitalism, every tangible and intangible object and/or process is capable of being turned into property; and once rendered that way may be monetised for private benefits without limit. We can see the process of monetisation applied to all manner of things….to goods and services; to the lands, the seas, the atmosphere and to space; to machines and their operating systems; to ideas, to socio-legal constructs such as ‘markets’ and other ‘domains’; to persons and their labour, to their rights of movement and residence, to their learning, to their very identities and futures; to time, to the means of exchange and to the rights of Sovereigns. Nature itself is being converted into private estates so that it can be monetised.

    We can say the process of capitalist development is that by which all things may be made into objects that can be held for exchange and monetised for private purposes.

    Even religion – itself a subset of the cognitive – is no longer exempt from this. Religious organs are now privately owned ‘businesses’ that offer festivities, observances and codes as marketable products…products that are in no particular way different from the indulgences sold by the pre-reform church.

    Capitalism is now ubiquitous. It is so pervasive it has become almost impossible to imagine a non-capitalist order.

  49. Kevin Rudd

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/rudd-calls-for-big-australia-to-deal-with-a-rising-china-20191126-p53eb0.html

    Kevin Rudd has called for a “big Australia” of 50 million people by the middle of the century to defend against a rising China.

    The former prime minister said a significantly bigger population would be needed over the coming decades to fund the defence and intelligence assets the nation would require without the support of the United States.

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