Big news on the polling front as Newspoll unveils its first set of results based on what The Australian describes as “an improved methodology following an investigation into the failure of the major published polls”. The old series had been limping on post-election with results appearing every three weeks, but this latest result emerges only a fortnight after the last, presumably portending a return to the traditional fortnightly schedule.
The poll credits the Coalition with a two-party lead of 51-49, compared with 50-50 in the result a fortnight ago, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (up one), Labor 33% (down two), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 5% (down two). Interestingly, both leaders’ personal ratings are a lot worse than they were in the old series: Scott Morrison’s approval rating is at 43% (down three) with disapproval at 52% (up nine), while Anthony Albanese is at 38% approval (down four, though he was up five last time) and 42% disapproval (up five, though he was down seven last time). No news yet on preferred prime minister, which is presumably still a thing (UPDATE: Morrison’s lead narrows from 46-32 to 46-35).
On the methodological front, the poll has dropped robopolling and is now conducted entirely online. The sample size of 1519 is similar to before (slightly lower in fact), but the field work dates are now Thursday to Saturday rather than Thursday to Sunday. In a column for the newspaper, Campbell White of YouGov Asia-Pacific, which conducts the poll, offers the following on why robopolling has been abandoned:
A decade or so ago, most people had landlines and they tended to answer them. There was very little call screening. This meant getting a representative sample was easier and pollsters did not need to be so skilled in modelling and scaling their data. The truth is, the old days are never coming back. In order to do better, we need to consider what we can do differently. We’ve seen a consistent pattern overseas where telephone polling has become less accurate and online polling more so as fewer people answer phone calls and more and more people are online.
White further notes that “annoying and invasive” robopolling is “answered largely by older people or those who are very interested in politics”, while “busy people who are less interested in politics either don’t answer or hang up”. He also reveals that the new series will “weight the data by age interlocked with education and have precise quotas for different types of electorate throughout Australia”, consistent with YouGov’s methodology internationally.
Hopefully the restated commitment to “greater transparency” means we will shortly see comprehensive details of demographic breakdowns and weightings, a commonplace feature of British and American polling that Australian poll watchers could only envy. Stay tuned.
“An ALP leader needs to be a super-persuasive communicator”
***
The last time an ALP leader was “super-persuasive” and was able to really connect with people during a campaign was in 2007.
Not even Rudd himself could repeat that Kevin 07 effort. Although, he was “persuasive” enough to return to the leadership, which was quite an achievement in itself considering how he was dumped. Did a lot of damage in the process but the feat of returning to the top job after having lost it is certainly not to be scoffed at on a personal level. It’s a rare feat indeed.
FMD there is more active measures for the day from Tucker Carlson at Fox news.
Waffle “Never Partisan” Woky
@wokyleeks
·
31m
HOLY SHIT now he’s peddling WikiLeaks deza about the chemical attacks in Syria.
Dude is PR for the enemy!!!
What the fuck is this and how does it not require a FARA?
@thespybrief
@MingGao26
@ericgarland
Quote Tweet
Acyn Torabi
@Acyn
· 33m
There’s a new Assad apologist in town
SH-Y: David Leyonhjelm tried to publicly shame me – I had to call him out
Sarah Hanson-Young
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/26/david-leyonhjelm-tried-to-publicly-shame-me-i-had-to-call-him-out
RI @ #647 Tuesday, November 26th, 2019 – 1:18 pm
Neither of us has to “deduce” much. Your views, like mine, are perfectly clear from our respective posts.
– You are in favor of opening new thermal coal mines, I am not.
– I am in favor of putting a price on carbon, you are not.
I didnt think of him as that good a communicator. He often lacked conciseness.
But he was likeable, from Queensland and here to help.
What I find most intriguing about that OECD graph that Guytaur posted at 12.33pm – is just how high up the ‘per capital emissions list New Zealand is. One could be forgiven for thinking that NZ had basically already solved its emissions problems given how regularly NZ is cited as an example of a ‘Green’ revolution. Also in a similar vein, look how Iceland is up on that graph as well. Something seems odd.
mexicanbeemer
“Would normally agree with this except Iowa seems to be in play this time thanks to Trump’s handling of the trade war, in the last mid-terms the Democrats won three of the four congressional districts”
Yes – and the Dems came close to winning IA-4 as well; the RWNJ Steve King held off a near 20% swing.
I agree that Iowa could be in play in 2020. Joni Ernst could be in strife as well.
However, I disagree that the results of the Iowa Dem caucus reflect the state at large.
“ It’s a rare feat indeed.”
Behold the Third Coming: #Kevin2027!
Nicholas says:
No, that is an absurdly broad definition of definition of capitalism that no economic historian would endorse. The essence of capitalism is that land and labour are treated as commodities, and there is a class structure that hinges on the distinction between a class that owns productive resources, and a class that has to earn a living by selling labour services to that owning class, and a professional managerial class that is employed by the owners to manage the labourers.
—————————————————–
That is a political structure because government has always been at the centre of the economy and society. Medieval kings would reward favorites with land but could also strip land owners of their land.
Senator Cash will be making a public apology in due course, aka never ever ever.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/illegal-pursuit-federal-court-quashes-awu-investigation-20191126-p53e6z.html
Capitalism may have developed out of the Monarchic/Aristocratic/Feudal order. But there is also very clearly a tendency for Capitalist development to give rise to neo-Feudal relations….to the re-instatement of property-in-humans, to the bonding of labour to the means of production, to the abolition of the rights of ‘free’ workers. It is the case that corporations are largely baronial in their privileges. They are exempt from the law much of the time. It is also the case that workers are largely held in a kind of bonded servitude within the system, within a system in which they have few choices. These days workers have the choices allowed them as ‘consumers’…as clients of the capitalist economy. But they have few rights as workers…as servants of the capitalist economy.
Andrew_Earlwood
says:
Tuesday, November 26, 2019 at 1:34 pm
“ It’s a rare feat indeed.”
Behold the Third Coming: #Kevin2027!
________________
Kevin did say he would return for Kevin27 in The Killing Season Vol. 2 The Shortening.
https://www.abc.net.au/7.30/the-killing-season-2/11167724
RI
says:
Tuesday, November 26, 2019 at 1:37 pm
Capitalism may have developed out of the Monarchic/Aristocratic/Feudal order. But there is also very clearly a tendency for Capitalist development to give rise to neo-Feudal relations
_________________________
Of course the Roman Republic/Empire had an advanced capitalist structure including banks, a stock market and commodity trading.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_economy
Roman mining was also quite advanced:
Hydraulic mining, which Pliny referred to as ruina montium (“ruin of the mountains”), allowed base and precious metals to be extracted on a proto-industrial scale.[16] The total annual iron output is estimated at 82,500 tonnes,.[17] Copper was produced at an annual rate of 15,000 t,[18] and lead at 80,000 t,[19] both production levels unmatched until the Industrial Revolution
Andrew_Earlwood @ #656 Tuesday, November 26th, 2019 – 1:32 pm
Although it is useful for pointing out how Australians “talk the talk” but don’t “walk the walk”, per-capita emissions is a actually a very poor measure. Total emissions is where Australia really “punches above its weight”, and New Zealand is way back in the dust. And if you use other accounting methods (such as extraction-based accounting) then Australia rockets right up to the top three.
Frydenberg and Morrison presumably want to claim credit for the departure of the Westpac CEO:
In reality they are claiming credit for this:
Feather duster punishment for corporate wrongdoers is what the LNP and IPA stand for.
A-E
The graph may be accurate, but what does it measure?
A balanced CO2 budget would be based on the total of consumption of CO2 emissions whether these emissions are created domestically or whether these emissions are created overseas.
This would radically re-arrange the graph.
This would get rid of the confusion that surrounds fossil fuel exports/imports.
It would also make possible an eventual CO2 tariff system.
There is a tendency by some commentators to count the latter twice: once as an export (as, for example, with Australia’s coal exports), and the second time when they are burned (as, for example, in China’s coal-fired CO2 emissions.)
The results of not getting this consistent and integrated can be ludicrous. Some folk in the UK look down on Australia for exporting coal but the UK imports the equivalent of around 800 million tonnes of CO2 emissions by way of imported food and manufactured items).
RI/Briefly
I think that could be argued is political. Essentially the political debate is about the role of the state and economics was called political science because they are mainly concerned with the allocation of resources which then flows into the political debate. The role of the state as in should it be passive or active is the simplest way of looking at the two wings of politics.
Player One @ #665 Tuesday, November 26th, 2019 – 1:42 pm
Actually, I just checked – since we are talking only about the OECD, Australia would rocket right up to number one. Yay!
How good is Australia?
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Tuesday, November 26, 2019 at 1:32 pm
Maybe they’re counting their volcanoes? 🙂
And the Romans also kept slaves. They were possibly ultra capitalist. Militarist. Corrupt. Elitist. Decadent. Patriarchal. Imperialist.
Marx’s ideas about capitalism were quite Anglo-centric, focused on conditions in the industrial economy of England, Wales and Scotland, and in part drawn from German philosophy. He did not know everything….quite obviously. He would probably not have predicted Revolutions in his name would be carried out in agrarian Russia and China.
$2.7 million for overseeing commission of around 20 million crimes?
Sick.
But, where do I sign up?
Kakapo emit methane?
This an indication of rampant All Black peptide use. Kinda like the fog of Skull Island.
Beemer,
Both Left and Right have schools of thought that are inherently anti-statist.
Well, let’s see where this leads.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/26/nsw-police-investigating-doctored-document-angus-taylor-used-in-clover-moore-attack
What a pity that victims of crime legislation does not allow the $2.7 million and more to be paid to the children who were horribly abused.
poroti @ #627 Tuesday, November 26th, 2019 – 1:05 pm
Too right. With this Orwellian government, ‘inspiration’ can be towards creating malign outcomes as much as benign or beneficial ones.
ItzaDream @ #676 Tuesday, November 26th, 2019 – 2:05 pm
So now Angus Taylor goes into, ‘I can’t comment as it’s the subject of investigation by the NSW Police’, mode.
RI
says:
Tuesday, November 26, 2019 at 1:47 pm
And the Romans also kept slaves. They were possibly ultra capitalist.
________________________
Slaves could also purchase their freedom. So they were marking money on emancipation and giving the slaves a nice carrot to work towards. Most of the Roman Empire was agrarian, but the Capital itself had some really advanced Capitalist structures.
“I didnt think of him as that good a communicator. He often lacked conciseness.”
Chaser did a couple of hillarious scetches making fun of that very deficit of Rudd’s. Reccomend looking up the ‘in due season’ song – a send up of the song of inspiring Obama quotes made during Obama’s election campaign. The point obviously to contrast the two.
RI
says:
Tuesday, November 26, 2019 at 1:47 pm
And the Romans also kept slaves. They were possibly ultra capitalist. Militarist. Corrupt. Elitist. Decadent. Patriarchal. Imperialist.
_____________________
They were the model for the British Empire and the USA. The USA based their entire political structure on the Roman Republic. The Senate was the Senate. The Plebian Assembly become the HoR. The Consul become the President. And in some ways the U.S Supreme Court was modelled on the Tribunes of the Plebians with the power of veto/unconstitutional. Term limits were also coped as was Roman architecture which the U.S Capital faithfully follows. They even adopted an Eagle as their emblem. Though not the wolf.
C@t
Thanks. So they have moved from considering the referral to investigating allegations. It will be interesting to see whether the Coalition maintains their form, which is to say ministers simply refuse to answer police questions.
Ya gotta luv Amy’s sense of humour over on The Grauniad blog:
And of course the Fasces. The symbol of Roman authority hangs on the wall:
Briefly:
I am glad to see that “essence” (which is absolute) has been reduced to the relative “very clearly a tendency”. I (in my eccentricity) would say the “very clear tendency” is in fact towards the corruption of capitalism by an overly strong theory of property.
Capitalists requires only sufficient property right to operate capital equipment (machines) at profit, no further property rights are required in capitalism, and any exploitation of property rights beyond what is strictly required is not capitalism, and indeed is opposed to it.
In particular, the supposed right to hold property idle (or otherwise withhold it from use) is no part of capitalism (for example because holding machines idle is not capitalist) and in fact is inimical to it.
Nicholas – being a student of history – will be aware that the modern notion of property was heavily informed by Locke. The so called “Conservatives” appeal to Locke often in support of “strong property rights”, but they forget what is now called the Lockean Proviso:
The Lockean notion of property – inclusive of the proviso – is sufficient for capitalism to prosper. It is rentiers, not capitalists, who seek to dispense with the proviso. Those with strong knowledge of economic history will be aware that in much of the 19th Century labourers and capitalists had common cause against the real enemies of humanity, namely the rentiers and owners of land and the banks. It was this common cause that built the modern economy with all its achievements.
nath
Nice pick up.
Danama Papers @ #684 Tuesday, November 26th, 2019 – 2:30 pm
You’ve got to keep hitting people over the head with it, apparently, or they might actually think well of Labor for a nanosecond. 😐
Is that Caracalla?
Mexicanbeemer
“Capitalism in its modern form originated around then but the concept of trade and markets (fruit & veg and other goods) are a common feature across human history.”
——-
Good lord. No wonder right wing Labor are strong supporters of Capitalism. They’ve reduced it to mean simple “trading”.
Australian aborigines had long distance trading tracks across the country. Valuablei commodities like flints and ochres, amongst other things, were traded over long distances.
But no one, apart obviously simple Laborites, think that Aborigonal societies operated red blooded capitalism!!
I don’t think anyone has put up Essential’s latest fortnightly poll yet:
https://essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport
Roman and U.S eagles compared:
swamprat @ #690 Tuesday, November 26th, 2019 – 2:36 pm
They were also into theft and war as well. So, likely the answer is yes, red-blooded capitalism was part of their DNA. 🙂
Nicholas:
Apparently I was not clear. I had no intention to define feudalism as some variant of capitalism, quite the opposite. Instead I am saying that most of not all of the undesirable features of what is now called capitalism are in fact the results of the unnecessary reimposition of an overly strong (tyrannical) model of property, inherited from the feudal era. That is, we do not currently have capitalism, we have capitalism corrupted by a sort of vestigial feudalism (or some other form of tyranny. And it’s currently getting worse.
If the NSW police investigation into Taylor takes the usual amount of time, the LNP will be able to claim “no comment” right up until the next election.
U.S Capital Building based upon the Paris Pantheon which is itself based upon the Pantheon in Rome:
https://www.wantedinrome.com/i/preview/storage/uploads/2017/11/pantheon.jpeg
C@tmomma
“They were also into theft and war as well. So, likely the answer is yes, red-blooded capitalism was part of their DNA. ”
—-
There is a logical error or two here.
While capitalists steal (the surplus value of labour) not all who steal are capitalists.
While the capital class are willing to engage in war not all who engage in war are capitalists 🙂
Australia did NOT at all have a capitalist society/economy before the first fleet arrived. 🙂
I’m not sure how many PBers have read Fernand Braudel’s “Civilization and Capitalism – 15thC to 18thC”? None?
This is from a review written by Alan Heston (Departments of Economics and South Asia
Regional Studies, University of Pennsylvania):
http://ricardo.ecn.wfu.edu/~cottrell/ope/archive/0308/0019.html
I think I’m going to go and watch “The Comedy of Terrors” starring Vincent Price, Boris Karloff, Peter Lorre, and Basil Rathbone. I’m in need of of some laughs.
Breifly:
Ok
This used to be widely accepted – it was thought that it was the aggregation of financial resources so as to fund aggregated capital was the main driver of growth in the capitalist model (hence why Marx thought it proper that the aggregated capital be owned by the people).
This might be called the “quantity of capital” theory.
However, Solow in the 1950s established that (a t that time) at least 75% of growth derives from technical change.
That is, it is “quality of capital” that counts.
So in fact it is all about technology.
The modern proponents of “property rights” quote Locke with approval but appear not to have read him (likewise with Smith, as Zoomster alluded to). Locke’s theory of property fully integrates “human rights” via the proviso “as much and as good for the rest”. Locke’s theory of property fully supports capitalism, the modern “conservative” notion of “strong property” is a perversion of Locke’s idea, and in fact omits key rights (contained in the proviso) that are in fact required for capitalism’s long term viability.