Welcome to another instalment of the now nearly complete Call of the Board series, a seat-by-seat review of the result of the May federal election. Now is the turn of South Australia, previous instalments having dealt with Sydney (here and here), regional New South Wales, Melbourne, regional Victoria, south-east Queensland, regional Queensland and Western Australia.
So far as the two-party swing was concerned, South Australia was largely a microcosm of the national result, with the Coalition picking up a swing of 1.6% (compared with 1.2% nationally) and no seats changing hands. Similarly, Labor did particularly badly in the regions, suffering big swings in Barker and Grey, compared with a highly consistent pattern of small swings in the metropolitan area. Labor won the statewide two-party preferred vote, as they have done at four out of the past five elections, albeit by a modest margin of 50.7-49.3.
As in previous recent instalments, I offer the following image with colour coding of swings at booth level. Compared with other metropolitan capitals, the divide between Labor swings in inner urban areas and Liberal swings further afield is somewhat less clear here, although the Labor swings are a fairly good proxy for general affluence. This would be even more apparent if the map extended further afield to encompass the Adelaide Hills areas covered by Mayo, where, as noted below, the tide seems to be running against the Liberals, and not just in comparison with Rebekha Sharkie.
On the primary vote, comparisons with 2016 are complicated by the Nick Xenophon factor. The Nick Xenophon Team scored 21.3% statewide in 2016, but its Centre Alliance successor fielded candidates only in the non-metropolitan seats of Mayo, Barker and Grey. Rebekha Sharkie was comfortably re-elected in Mayo, but the party’s vote was slashed in Barker and Grey. Primary votes elsewhere followed similar patterns – to save myself repetition in the seat-by-seat account below, the Xenophon absence left between 16.7% and 20.0% up for grabs in Kingston, Makin, Spence and Sturt, which resulted in primary vote gains of 5.1% to 6.2% for the Liberals, 5.2% to 6.6% for Labor and 2.6% to 3.9% for the Greens.
The other factor worth noting in preliminaries is a redistribution that resulted in the abolition of a seat, part of a trend that has reduced the state’s representation from 13 to 10 since 1990. This caused Port Adelaide to be rolled into Hindmarsh, creating one safe Labor seat out of what were formerly one safe Labor and one marginal seat. The eastern parts of Port Adelaide and Hindmarsh were transferred to Adelaide, setting the seal on a seat that has grown increasingly strong for Labor since the Howard years, while the Glenelg end of Hindmarsh went to Boothby, without changing its complexion as a marginal Liberal seat.
The table below compares two-party results with corresponding totals I have derived from Senate ballot papers, the idea being that this gives some sort of idea as to how results may have been affected by candidate and incumbency factors (two-party results for Labor are shown). This shows a clear pattern of Labor doing better in the House than the Senate in the seats than they hold, whereas there is little distinction in Liberal-held seats. My guess would be that there is a general tendency for Labor to score better in the House and the Senate overall, which is boosted further by sitting member effects in Labor-held seats, while being cancelled out by those in Liberal-held seats. Taking that into account, it would seem Labor’s sitting member advantages were relatively weak in Adelaide and Hindmarsh, which stands to reason given the disturbance of the redistribution.
On with the show:
Adelaide (Labor 8.2%; 0.1% swing to Liberal): The Liberal swing in this now safe Labor seat was below the statewide par despite the disappearance of Kate Ellis’s personal vote. In this it reflected the national inner urban trend, and also the long term form of a seat that has drifted from the Liberals’ reach since Ellis gained it in 2004. However, a divide was evident between a Liberal swing at the northern end and a Labor swing in the south, for reasons not immediately obvious. It may be thought to reflect the demographic character of the respective Enfield and Unley ends of the seat, but this doesn’t explain why the Liberals gained in Prospect immediatley north of the city, an area that would seem to refect the inner urban mould. Nor was there any particularly evident effect from the redistribution, which added to the west of the electorate parts of Hindmarsh, formerly held by Adelaide’s new member, Steve Georganas. The Centre Alliance registered a relatively weak 13.7% here in 2016 – the Greens did particularly well in their absence, lifting from 10.0% to 15.7%, although they are still a long way off being competitive.
Barker (Liberal 18.9%; 5.1% swing to Liberal): The Barossa Valley swung to Labor, but the rest of this seat followed the script of regional Australia in going strongly enough to the Liberals to substantially increase Tony Pasin’s already safe margin. A majority of the Centre Alliance collapse (from 27.6% to 2.9%) ended up with the Coalition, although the United Australia Party recorded an above average 5.9%, while the Labor primary vote made a weak gain of 4.7%.
Boothby (Liberal 1.4%; 1.3% swing to Labor): Labor once again failed to realise hopes of reeling in this southern Adelaide seat, despite it reflecting the national trend of affluent suburbia in recording a 1.3% Labor swing that overwhelmed whatever sophomore advantage may have accrued to Liberal member Nicolle Flint. The absence of the Centre Alliance left 18.5% of the vote up for grabs, and the Liberal, Labor and Greens primary votes were respectively up 3.5%, 7.7% and 3.8%.
Grey (Liberal 13.3%; 5.6% swing to Liberal): Another big regional swing to the Liberals, in this case to the advantage of Rowan Ramsey, who came within 2% of losing to the Nick Xenophon Team’s Andrea Broadfoot in 2016. Broadfoot ran again for the Centre Alliance this time and was down from 27.7% to 5.1%, of which a fair bit was accounted for by the entry of One Nation and the United Australia Party, a further fair bit went to the Liberals, while the Labor primary vote hardly budged.
Hindmarsh (Labor 6.5%; 1.9% swing to Liberal): The Liberals recorded a swing perfectly in line with the statewide result in a seat that is effectively a merger of the safe Labor seat of Port Adelaide, whose member Mark Butler now takes the reins in Hindmarsh, and what was previously the highly marginal seat of Hindmarsh, which extended into more Liberal-friendly territory further to the south. The income effect took on a very particular manifestation here in that the booths along the coast swung to Labor while those further inland tended to go the other way. With the Nick Xenophon Team taking its 17.0% vote into retirement, each of the main parties made roughly comparable gains on the primary vote.
Kingston (Labor 11.9%; 1.6% swing to Liberal): For the most part, this once marginal but now safe Labor seat followed the national outer urban trend in swinging to the Liberals, though not be nearly enough to cause serious concern for Labor member Amanda Rishworth. However, separate consideration is demanded of the northern end of the electorate, which is notably more affluent, particularly in comparison with the central part around Morphett Vale. This northern end consists of two parts separated by the Happy Valley Reservoir — the coast at Hallett Cove, and Flagstaff Hill further inland, the latter gained in the redistribution. For whatever reason, the former area behaved as did the rest of the electorate, whereas the latter swung to Labor.
Makin (Labor 9.7%; 1.1% swing to Liberal): So far as the electorate in aggregate is concerned, everything just noted about Kingston equally applies to Makin, which remains secure for Labor member Tony Zappia. There was perhaps a slight tendency for the more affluent parts of the electorate (in the north-east around Golden Grove) to do better for Labor than the low income parts, but not much.
Mayo (Centre Alliance 5.1%; 2.2% swing to Centre Alliance): As the Nick Xenophon/Centre Alliance vote tanked elsewhere, Rebekha Sharkie had no trouble repeating her feat of the 2016 election, when she unseated Liberal member Jamie Briggs, and the July 2018 Section 44 by-election, when she accounted for the now twice-unsuccessful Liberal candidate, Georgina Downer. Downer trod water on the primary vote this time, but nonetheless won the primary vote as Labor recovered market share from Sharkie after a particularly poor showing at the by-election. Sharkie’s winning margin of 5.1% was slightly down on her 7.5% by-election win. The Sharkie factor obscured what may be an ongoing trend to Labor in the seat, with Downer winning the Liberal-versus-Labor vote by a very modest 2.5%. This partly reflected a 2% shift in the redistribution, but there was also a 0.7% swing to Labor that bucked the statewide trend.
Spence (Labor 14.1%; 3.0% swing to Liberal): As well as changing its name from Wakefield, the redistribution removed the rural territory that formerly leavened the Labor margin in a seat that now encompasses Adelaide’s low-rent north, up to and including Gawler. For those with a long enough memory, it more resembles the long lost seat of Bonython, a Labor stronghold through a history from 1955 to 2004, than Wakefield, which was a safe Liberal seat until Bonython’s abolition drew it into the suburbs. Consistent with the national trend of low-income and outer urban seats, Labor member Nick Champion emerged with a dent in his still considerable margin.
Sturt (Liberal 6.9%; 1.5% swing to Liberal): In the seat vacated upon Christopher Pyne’s retirement, swing results neatly reflected the distribution of income, favouring Labor at the northern end and Liberal in the south. Whatever the impact of the loss of Pyne’s personal vote, it didn’t stop Liberal debutante James Stevens scoring a primary vote majority and 1.5% two-party swing.
I’ve got just the thing for overweight and unfit Prime Ministers:
Mavis
says:
Sunday, November 24, 2019 at 12:40 pm
nath:
Where does your hatred of Shorten and the SDA stem from? It borders on mania. I also noted your exchange the other night with Lars, both seemingly passed over for promotion, even preselection.
__________________
My Aunt was getting paid award wages until Shorten and Cleanevent orchestrated an EBA which slashed her pay. She unwittingly became an AWU member though. Isn’t that nice.
“Government can act efficiently but not be panicking.”
c@t…calling bullshit on that in the context of this Govt. They can barely walk and whistle at the same time.
P1,
Comprehension – fail!
Pegasus:
[‘The Greens and CPRS
The major parties and conservative media spend a lot of time cynically deflecting blame for a decade of inaction on climate change. Here’s what really happened.’]
https://greens.org.au/cprs#
Straight out of The Greens’ propaganda unit. The fact is that the CPRS was a start and could’ve been tinkered with down the line. But Green partisans wouldn’t allow Labor to get a foot in the door with their raison d’être. And look where that’s got us. Anyway, enough from me on the Labor/Green wars.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #258 Sunday, November 24th, 2019 – 12:50 pm
Yes, I know. But if you just tried a little harder, you might understand bits of it 🙁
Player Onesays:
Sunday, November 24, 2019 at 12:52 pm
Are you really this stupid?
In your case it certainly seems that ignorance is bliss!
Greg Jericho has got neoliberal centrists pegged, that is for sure. Another person who nailed the character of the centrist is Theodore Roosevelt:
“It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”
itsthevibe
‘Which of the Emerson/Weatherill report’s recommendations will be adopted, then?’
Is that in the control of ‘Labor supporters here’? Do we demand that ‘Green supporters here’ drive the actions of the Greens party?
nath:
[‘My Aunt was getting paid award wages until Shorten and Cleanevent orchestrated an EBA which slashed her pay. She unwittingly became an AWU member though. Isn’t that nice.’]
That’s a shame, but perhaps it’s time to move on?
But whatever you do Scotty old mate keep that flow of thermal coal export going…
Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery @ #261 Sunday, November 24th, 2019 – 12:56 pm
I don’t think I’ll try it. It doesn’t seem to have made you happy.
Mavis
says:
Sunday, November 24, 2019 at 12:57 pm
nath:
[‘My Aunt was getting paid award wages until Shorten and Cleanevent orchestrated an EBA which slashed her pay. She unwittingly became an AWU member though. Isn’t that nice.’]
That’s a shame, but perhaps it’s time to move on?
______________
Well I did enjoy the concession speech and his sad little face. But I’m sure there is some more satisfaction I can exact.
‘Has there been less backburning?
No. NSW Rural Fire Service deputy commissioner Rob Rogers denied there had been less hazard-reduction burning than in previous years.’
From https://greens.org.au/bushfires# peg linked to above.
If you’re talking about a policy area, it helps if you understand the terminology. ‘Backburning” is NOT ‘hazard reduction burning’. *
* Curiously, there are definitions provided at the end of the link.
Fine: which of the Emerson/Weatherill report’s recommendations do Labor supporters here believe should be adopted?
The QPS has charged a mother with murder over the deaths of two of her children in a car:
https://www.news.com.au/national/queensland/news/two-children-found-dead-in-a-car-south-of-brisbane/news-story/87a911fd04cfea344a2d6e094a4ef160
Given that our place is surrounded by ‘Advice warnings’ – in a nice little circle – we did a hose audit today.
It pointed out the importance of checking all your firefighting equipment well before you look like you’re in trouble – the fire pump would not start, hoses kinked, water pressure from some taps was below standard, etc.
Problems easily fixed, but not in the (er) heat of a crisis.
Part of the problem unions have when addressing issues such as underpayment is that it’s often casual workers who are affected – who aren’t union members.
Similarly, agreements tend to be negotiated on behalf of union members – who are generally permanent workers, not casuals or temporary staff.
So if you want to be paid properly, join a union.
The AWU/Cleanevent deal from emails at Cleanevent:
It has been alleged that the Cleanevent arrangements were intended to bolster AWU membership numbers, giving the union greater influence in decision-making within the Australian Labor Party.
A company email tendered in evidence today shows the company’s management had concerns about its “exposure” if it went ahead with the side deal.
Cleanevent’s general manager of human resources, Michael Robinson, wrote to the company’s finance manager, Julianne Page, in May 2010 to discuss the pros and cons of the deal.
“For a saving of $1.5 million we could make a donation of $20k to the union in some way, shape or form (tables at the AWU ball, paying our level 3 casuals membership, etc),” he wrote.
“I am sure that making this ‘donation’ in whatever form we choose would be legal, but then this becomes a question of scruples.
“While I share … concerns for any exposure we may be opening ourselves to, I feel there is definitely merit in fleshing this out simply for the massive competitive advantage that we will be creating for ourselves.”
It has been alleged that the Cleanevent EBA left workers worse off by paying them lower penalty rates.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-19/company-had-ethical-dilemma-over-proposed-deal-with-awu/6865562
itsthevibe
Do you have a link to the Greens’ review of their election campaign? I’d be interested in reading it.
zoomster
says:
Sunday, November 24, 2019 at 1:08 pm
Part of the problem unions have when addressing issues such as underpayment is that it’s often casual workers who are affected – who aren’t union members.
Similarly, agreements tend to be negotiated on behalf of union members – who are generally permanent workers, not casuals or temporary staff.
So if you want to be paid properly, join a union.
_______________________________
You actually have no idea what you are talking about.
A bit of leadership speculation in the ACT Liberal Opposition:
While Coe has put in a lacklustre performance, the big problem for the ACT Liberals is that they are dominated by the hard right including Seselja. The next election is in October 2020.
nath:
[‘Well I did enjoy the concession speech and his sad little face. But I’m sure there is some more satisfaction I can exact.’]
There’s evidence that holding grudges can untowardly affect one’s physical & mental health:
[‘When you hold onto grudges, you are constantly thinking about the events that caused you pain. This bitterness and anger can cause higher levels of stress and an increased heart rate. The only way to reduce the stress is to forgive the person who hurt you so you experience lower physiological stress responses.’]
I must take this advice myself.
Mavis
Thanks for drawing out the source of nath’s vindictiveness towards Shorten. I knew it had to be something personal, possibly irrational. I agree with you, carrying anger can be destructive to one’s health. Psychological counselling may be advisable.
Mavis @ #277 Sunday, November 24th, 2019 – 1:11 pm
Best advice: Don’t get mad … get even! 🙂
lizzie @ #278 Sunday, November 24th, 2019 – 1:24 pm
The exposure of these dodgy deals is actually a good thing for people to know.
Player One
Unfortunately when the source of the “mad” is a government department or a close relative, action is not always possible or advisable.
Rex D
With all goodwill, I look forward to your revealing all the dodgy deals of the LNP over, say 10 years. That should keep you occupied for a while.
Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery says:
Sunday, November 24, 2019 at 12:56 pm
Player Onesays:
Sunday, November 24, 2019 at 12:52 pm
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #258 Sunday, November 24th, 2019 – 12:50 pm
Comprehension – fail!
Yes, I know. But if you just tried a little harder, you might understand bits of it
Are you really this stupid?
In your case it certainly seems that ignorance is bliss!
Mark Twain.
“Do not argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience.”
In the end, having someone show their ignorance and lack of desire to do something about it just gets depressing.
Rex
‘The exposure of these dodgy deals is actually a good thing for people to know.’
We had a whole RC devoted to them.
Cheers, lizzie.
____________________________________________________________
Player One:
[‘Best advice: Don’t get mad … get even! ‘]
In that department, I often look to you for guidance.
https://about.bnef.com/blog/liebreich-energy-sector-transformed-must-energy-sector-reformed/
This is an old article, but it makes the point that most fossil fuels (except for gas) are inherently centralising and this energy centralisation leads to:
– centralised politics (state-ism on the right, socialism on the left)
– centralised financial sectors (and financial “capitalism”)
And militates against:
– real economy businesses, which tend to be partly decentralised (distributed supply chains with central hubs)
– individuals
I can see why those on the left might support centralised energy production, but why do modern “conservatives” like something that favours socialism and banks (ok, I see that one!) and is against businesses and individuals?
Watching a doco about Italy, I find myself regretting that Australia was not “colonised” by Europeans from a warm, Mediterranean climate, rather than a preponderance of Scots and northern English, who would have had no understanding of the benefits of a siesta in the heat, and whose influence has left us with so much unsuitable architecture, even in the tropics.
lizzie @ #282 Sunday, November 24th, 2019 – 1:29 pm
You beat me to the punch all the time.
Dont get even Begbie. Choose life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahxDiseuAak
Best take I saw today on the CPRS:
Like the Bourbons, Australian Labor have learned nothing and forgotten nothing.
Ouch!
Ben Eltham
@beneltham
NZ seem determined to draw this Test match now rather than waiting for tomorrow evening.
“We’ve made mistakes, I guess…”
(“What do you think those mistakes were, and how to you plan to avoid repeating them?”)
“Um… well, uh… BUT TEH EVIL GREENS!!!1!!1”
Honestly, I get that the AWU/SDA camp was deeply outraged at the report for having the gall to suggest that God Emperor Bill was not in fact the second coming of Christ, but does that really mean that the whole thing should be disregarded?
Why would anyone imagine that Sussan Ley would take any notice of hysterical conservationists?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace/2019/11/23/koalas-functionally-extinct-after-australia-bushfires-destroy-80-of-their-habitat/#159f8f657bad
Barney asks:
It is new politics, instead of trying things to see whether they work, politics today is about not trying things in case they work!.
The polar opposite of the experimentalism of (both) Roosevelts, Hawke and Keating
https://amp.news.com.au/finance/business/mining/tax-and-royalty-systems-for-australias-gas-and-oil-industries-need-reform-experts-argue/news-story/a900c328f1a01bf4e3aee8b867138262?__twitter_impression=true#
Edit addition:
In 2017, The West Australian reported that the Japanese oil company Inpex would export $195 billion worth of liquefied natural gas (LNG), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and condensate from Darwin over 30 years.
However, analysis commissioned by the company revealed no PRRT would be paid by its Ichthys LNG project, even after 30 years.
The year is 2059. Greens leader Salem Di Natale addresses the media in a solemn ceremony. ‘We are as proud today as we were 50 years ago on this day that we voted down the CPRS.’ Vowing to continue to hold out for the perfect solution to Australia’s rising greenhouse emissions….
adrian @ #291 Sunday, November 24th, 2019 – 1:45 pm
Ah, the increasingly irrelevant Ben Eltham, quoted by adrian. Hey, adrian, how’s Project Veritas going? Any more incendiary revelations to explode the blog with? 🙂
I missed this earlier, but like Parnas, Rudy also insists he has an ace up his sleeve in the event he gets #ETTD’d.
Confessions @ #298 Sunday, November 24th, 2019 – 1:58 pm
It’s almost like you think the CPRS was a better policy than the Clean Energy Package laws …?
lefty e:
Just make it illegal for media companies to trade whilst in tax loss (subject to a revenue threshold). There is no reason for a media company to do so (and to the contrary it is the failing business models that have led to big media becoming full of crap, not some cunning plan by Uncle Rupert) . If a reconstruction is required due to insolvency then the company cannot legally trade.
the media have a little to do with this. Governments are terrified of the bad press caused by small problems in government endeavours. Privatisation is a strange solution to this… is stirs the accountability pot so nobody knows exactly who to blame.
It frustrates me no end to see journos and presenters latch on to minor problems – gotchas – and miss the big picture. It is lazy, clickbait journalism. An example is the SA ALP infill development planning changes…. the media pounded them for the street parking issues that sometimes resulted because residents decided they wanted three cars (despite infill only being allowed on good public transport routes and close to amenities) and changed their garages into home theatres. So out went the baby with the street parking water.
Adelaide Hospital is another example. It has a myriad of problems and many of them big ones (although a lot caused by SAHealth rather than the new hospital alone) – yet all commentators refuse to acknowledge just how frigging good it is to have a big new hospital. They also refuse to be attentive to the problems in private hospitals or private health funds.
In the end, nothing gets built or changed. Or it gets given to private companies to skim their cream and ignore serving those who have no cream to offer.
frednk @ #283 Sunday, November 24th, 2019 – 1:30 pm
How’s your campaign going to open new coal mines so that we can stop our poor coal miners having to go and work in Indonesia? Or Barney’s campaign to build coal-fired power stations in India?
I wonder if I am the only one who thinks it is a bit weird that you are so obsessed with Indonesia, and Barney is so obsessed with India, and both of you would apparently rather talk about those countries than about Australia? 🙁
This is for the next time some idiot here says we just should ‘Stop Adani’ and selling Coal to India:
Coal reserves, million short tons, 2017
(million short tons, Source: The U.S. Energy Information Administration, TheGlobalEconomy.com)
1. USA
2. Russia
3. Australia
4. China
5. India
6. Ukraine
7. Germany
8. South Africa
9. Poland
10. Kazakhstan
11. Indonesia
12. Turkey
13. New Zealand
14. Serbia
15. Brazil
16. Canada
17. Colombia
18. Czech Rep.
19. Vietnam
20. Pakistan
21. Hungary
22. Greece
23. Mongolia
24. Bulgaria
25. Bosnia & Herz.
26. Mozambique
27. Uzbekistan
28. Mexico
29. Iran
30. Spain
31. Chile
32. Thailand
33. Kyrgyzstan
34. Venezuela
35. North Korea
36. Albania
37. Laos
38. Zimbabwe
39. Argentina
40. Netherlands
41. Tajikistan
42. Slovenia
43. Nigeria
44. Macedonia
45. South Korea
46. Philippines
47. Japan
48. Bangladesh
49. Romania
50. Tanzania
51. Georgia
52. Malaysia
53. Armenia
54. Swaziland
55. Montenegro
56. Slovakia
57. Botswana
58. Peru
59. DR Congo
60. UK
61. Afghanistan
62. Algeria
63. Zambia
64. Portugal
65. Ecuador
66. Egypt
67. Ireland
68. Morocco
69. Italy
70. Burma
71. Niger
72. C.A. Republic
73. Malawi
74. N. Caledonia
75. Bolivia
76. Nepal
77. Norway
78. Sweden
79. Taiwan
Just match the name of the country to the number.