Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at The University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
There were six UK national polls released last weekend. Four gave the Conservatives 13 to 17 point leads over Labour, with a Conservative vote in the mid 40s and a Conservative-plus-Brexit Party vote at 48-51%. The remaining two polls were better for Labour, but still had the Conservatives eight points ahead. It’s looking like a Conservative landslide on December 12.
My opinion of what has gone wrong for Labour is that the average voter doesn’t like politics, but there has been far too much front-page politics in the last year, which has been blamed on the 2017 election’s hung parliament – see this Guardian article by a BritainThinks founding partner.
Kevin Bonham has discussed the Tasmanian “bandwagon” effect, in which undecided voters go to the major party most likely to win a majority to keep the Greens from holding the balance of power. So UK voters may be moving to the Conservatives to prevent another hung parliament. Also, Labour’s left-wing proposals are exciting when most voters want politics to return to being boring.
On November 14, Labour announced a policy to make broadband free, paid for by a greater tax on tech giants. It would involve part-nationalisation. I think this is an attempt by Labour to increase youth turnout and win back voters who have turned to the Lib Dems over dislike for Labour’s Brexit policies.
There will be several TV debates, with the first one on Tuesday at 8pm UK time (Wednesday 7am AEDT). This debate will feature Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn head to head. The main risk for Johnson is that Corbyn can use this debate to consolidate the votes of those opposed to Johnson’s deal behind Labour.
Lib Dems: do they want to stop Brexit or stop Corbyn?
On November 12, Liberal Democrat candidate Tim Walker withdrew from Canterbury. In 2017, pro-Remain Labour candidate Rosie Duffield won Canterbury by just a 45.0% to 44.7% margin over the Conservatives, with 8.0% for the Lib Dems. However, the Liberal Democrats nominated a replacement candidate by the November 14 close of nominations. On November 5, party leader Jo Swinson said she was “absolutely categorically ruling out” Corbyn becoming PM via Lib Dem votes.
Commentator Stephen Bush says the Lib Dems are attempting to appeal to affluent voters in the south, who dislike both Brexit and Labour. I have two issues with this strategy. First, better-educated voters globally are more likely to swing to the left, so Labour may not be such a negative with these voters. If the Lib Dems won’t assist Corbyn, what is their plan to stop Brexit given they will win far fewer seats than Labour?
My second issue is that there are still some natural Labour voters in the southern seats the Lib Dems are targeting. The Lib Dems need these Labour supporters to tactically vote Lib Dem. But if Labour voters see it as a contest between “Blue Tories” and “Yellow Tories”, will they move to the Lib Dems?
Election updates: Spain, Israel, Louisiana and Sri Lanka
On November 12 – two days after the second 2019 Spanish election – the leaders of the centre-left Socialists and far-left Podemos reached a tentative deal to form a government. The two parties have 155 of the 350 lower house seats. A small leftist party would bring the left total to 158, but the stability of the government will depend on mostly leftist regional parties, which won 42 seats. Right-wing parties combined won 150 seats.
In Isreal, left-leaning Blue & White leader Benny Gantz has until Wednesday to form a government. If he fails, Israel likely faces its third election in a year.
At Saturday’s US Louisiana state election, the Democrats held the governorship by a 51.3-48.7 margin. Louisiana is normally a strong Republican state. Democrats won the highest office in four of five state elections this November.
At Saturday’s Sri Lankan presidential election, the right-wing Gotabaya Rajapaksa defeated his liberal opponent by a 52.3-42.0 margin. Rajapaksa is the brother of a former authoritarian president.
I attribute the current polling, to Boris Johnson rallying the Leave voters behind the Conservatives. While the Remain voters are divided between Labour, Liberal Democrats, Scottish National and Green Parties, which is fatal in a First Past the Post Electoral system.
Tristo
“While the Remain voters are divided between Labour, Liberal Democrats, Scottish National and Green Parties, which is fatal in a First Past the Post Electoral system.”
———————-
In Scotland, the SNP and the Greens are the only proper Remain voters.
The LibDems only support Scotland remaining in the EU if England remains. The LibDems support Scotland’s removal from the EU if England decides to leave.
Sorry “Remain voters” should be “Remain parties”.
the surge to the tories isnt exactly rocket science – it coincides perfectly with the self-implosion and collapse in support of the brexit party. Labour is also improving their polling, thanks to a similar collapse in the lib-dems. Its clearly not enough though – yet. Im still holding out for labour gaining momentum when the manifesto is released tomorrow and the debates start.
The only real questions now are how big will the Conservative victory be and will Corbyn resign?
I hope that once Boris has a good majority he puts WTO exit back on the negotiating table and pushes back at the EU over Northern Ireland.
Couple more polls. ICM is one of Labour’s better polls, but still has the Tories ten pts ahead. Survation is usually one of Labour’s better polls, but has a 14-pt Tory lead.
Britain Elects @britainelects
·
9h
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 32% (+1)
LDEM: 13% (-2)
BREX: 5% (-3)
GRN: 3% (-)
via @ICMResearch, 15 – 18 Nov
Chgs. w/ 11 Nov
Britain Elects @britainelects
·
21h
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42%
LAB: 28%
LDEM: 13%
BREX: 5%
GRN: 3%
via @Survation, 14 – 16 Nov
ft. new voting prompt, no changes recorded due to this, but previous Survation had just a 35-29 Tory lead.
of course Corbyn will resign if the tories get a majority. Along with McDonald and Abbott and probably everyone else in that clique. Corbyn himself will be the first to understand that he needs to go. He has never lusted for power for power’s sake – he was part of a team effort to ensure the left was always represented during leadership contests. He doesnt seek power for himself, he seeks influence and representation for the socialist left in the labour party, the members of which play tag team contesting leadership contests. The only thing he has to sort out before he leaves is to ensure the left maintain control of the party.
That’s a shame. Corbyn and Abbott are stand out performers for Labour.
Tory 42% nationally is an amalgam across safe seats, gainable seats, losable seats and unwinnable seats.
Tories on 42% can net zero gain or net +100 gain depending on where it distributes. We just dont know, only internal seat polling can really inform? FPTP allows a swathe of wins even in the mid-30s if Lab vote fractures left or right or both.
Really the only directionally tangible evidence are those 3 lab seat polls that show leakage to LibDems delivering the seat to the Tories with no swing to them as such.
That at scale is an electoral annhialation.
Lab to LibDem leakage to deliver seat to Tories, i would argue that this has no mandate value and is a perverse result of a fptp system. As long as this system is there, such perverse results should be subverted through (unofficial) cooperation. But instead we have Lab and Lib Dem playing prisoners dilemma to a lose-lose result where a win-win possibility is available. Thats on them.
Some post-debate YouGov polling. While Johnson won by 51-49, that’s a lot better for Corbyn than voting intentions or preferred PM polling.
Britain Elects @britainelects
·
1h
On who performed best in tonight’s ITV debate:
Boris Johnson: 51%
Jeremy Corbyn: 49%
#ITVDebate: on who came across as the most…
Prime Ministerial:
Boris Johnson: 54%
Jeremy Corbyn: 29%
#ITVDebate: on who come across as the most…
Likeable:
Johnson: 54%
Corbyn: 37%
24m
#ITVDebate: on who come across as the most…
Trustworthy:
Johnson: 40%
Corbyn: 45%
24m
#ITVDebate: on who come across as the most…
In touch with ordinary people:
Johnson: 25%
Corbyn: 59%
#ITVDebate: on how well or badly do you think [X] performed in tonight’s debate:
Boris Johnson:
Well: 59%
Badly: 41%
Jeremy Corbyn:
Well: 67%
Badly 32%
via @YouGov
Two voting intention polls also out today. YouGov has the Tory lead down from 17 pts to 12, with a direct Labour gain from the Tories. Labour needs more like that. The target for Labour is probably about a 39-35 Tory lead. The Kantar poll is a nightmare scenario for Remainers; the Tories get almost all the Leave vote while the Remain vote is split.
Britain Elects @britainelects
·
5h
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (-3)
LAB: 30% (+2)
LDEM: 15% (-)
BREX: 4% (-)
via @YouGov, 18 – 19 Nov
Chgs. w/ 15 Nov
Britain Elects @britainelects
·
7h
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 45% (+8)
LAB: 27% (-)
LDEM: 16% (-1)
GRN: 3% (-)
BREX: 2% (-7)
via @KantarTNS, 14 – 18 Nov
expat: “Really the only directionally tangible evidence are those 3 lab seat polls that show leakage to LibDems delivering the seat to the Tories with no swing to them as such.”
At this point the lib-dem vote is still sliding. By the time of the eleciton it may have slided so far (and assuming most of the leakage is scooped up by labour – a fair assumption I think) as to deliver the seats back to labour. That of course would reduce the chance of lib-dem gains in LD vs Tori seats – but I’ve been told that there are not too many of those.
Yes the polls are bad and getting worse for remainers, yet still even now they have the lesser hurdle to jump than the tories. They merely need to keep the tories in minority – and they can do that even if they net lose seats. On the tory side, to get a majority I would think they still need more than the ~40-43% they are currently polling – and there can’t be that many more votes to be gained.
They re pretty good debate numbers for Corbin, but will it change much? I still think Labour’s biggest problem in the end will be Brexit weariness; as in, Labour promises that Brexit stays centre stage for some time to come, the Conservatives get it done and move on, a very attractive prospect for those who don’t have strong feelings either way about it. Still three weeks to go, and while a Conservative majority seems likely, I wouldn’t say it is certain.
One thing I do hope is that if the Conservatives do win a majority, Boris Johnson goes back to the EU and makes it very clear that their demand to impose an economic united Ireland as their price for a Brexit deal is completely unacceptable, and that the UK is prepared to walk with no deal should this not be renegotiated.
TV Debates are meaningless for elections results.
I am really looking forward to Big Adrian’s post-election wrap. The Iranians might hire him to run their centrifuges.
possibly the biggest lie the tories are peddling this campaign is the “lets get brexit done” mantra. In reality the uk is headed for years of brexit stuffing around even if Boris’ deal gets through.
Though I agree few people would know or care about this.
“I am really looking forward to Big Adrian’s post-election wrap.”
Me too. Unfortunately it will most likely be little more than “Boris wins majority in landslide, Corbyn resigns after failing to cut through”.
@Adrian Beaumont
I plugged in both the ICM and Survation numbers into the Election prediction section on Electoral Calculus website.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/
ICM
Conservatives 346
Labour 234
Liberal Democrats 16
Green 1
SNP 31
Plaid Cymru 4
Northern Irish parties 18
Survation
Conservatives 376
Labour 195
Liberal Democrats 18
Green 1
SNP 39
Plaid Cymru 4
Northern Irish parties 18
@swamprat
Thanks for informing me about the situation in Scotland, in regards to Scotland I am convinced it will be a near clean sweep for the Scottish National Party. If that happens and the Tories win a majority, the Scottish government might just hold another Independence referendum.
Matt31,
But this then either puts the hard border back between NI and Eire, or makes Eire put a customs border between itself and the channel. Either way Eire loses economically and socially, in a fiasco in which they had no part.
I also cannot see what advantage there is to NI taking on the new, post-brexit UK rules for customs c.f. staying de Facto in the EU after Brexit for customs purposes.
UK: Based on the polling average up until 19 November,
@EuropeElects projects an 85% probability for a Conservative (CON-ECR) majority government, 13% for another CON-led hung parliament, and 2% for a Labour (S&D)-led centre-left and centre government coalition. #GE2019 #Brexit
I don’t particularly care what happens to Ireland. If they choose to put a hard border in then that’s their choice. They don’t have to- there are soft EU borders elsewhere.
Yesterday’s YouGov was relatively good for Labour, but today’s ComRes is relatively bad. I wonder if the polls are now herding. These two polls were both conducted pre-debate. There’s also been a scandal over the Tories’ renaming one of their Twitter accounts as “FactcheckUK” during the debate.
Britain Elects @britainelects
·
1h
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 31% (-2)
LDEM: 15% (+1)
BREX: 5% (-)
GRN: 2% (-)
via @SavantaComRes, 18 – 19 Nov
Chgs. w/ 14 Nov
In Israel, Benny Gantz failed to form a govt. There are now 21 days in which any Knesset member can form a govt, but that’s unlikely. So it looks like the 3rd election in a year for Israel.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/20/israel-opposition-leader-benny-gantz-fails-to-form-coalition-government
And here’s my US politics article for The Conversation about Buttigieg’s surge in Iowa and Democrats winning four of five US state elections in November.
https://theconversation.com/buttigieg-surges-to-clear-lead-in-iowa-poll-as-democrats-win-four-of-five-us-state-elections-127210
The Fact Check thing is only a scandal for a very minor group who would never vote Conservative.
Brexit Party collapse seems to have bottomed out now on~5%
…. I think that somebody will have to do a lot of thinking on UK general election day, to explain why the predictions based on the opinion polls went completely wrong…. and didn’t reflect the actual results…
I am looking forward to that…. 🙂
It is very hard to see how even the most favourable distribution of a 45% nat Tory vote against a Lab figure in the low 30s can deliver anything other than a comfortable Tory majority.
Can only hope that this doesnt prove true on the day. That exit poll indication on voting close is going to be a doozy (has proved highly accurate last 10 yrs)
Corbyn’s manifesto will never get enacted because he wont have a majority, ironically some watered down compromised version of some of it might prove quite popular.
The no of seats the Torys win is crucial… there are a number who will baulk at a no deal scenario, and for them to impact the majority could prove very important.
My hopes of a net Tory loss/standstill of seats are gone – this in line with most commentators here. My hopes of a small gain that keeps them in minority (even just short as now with DUP support) are just about gone.
To the extent this is facilitated by the lose-lose prisoner dilemma approach of Lab and the Lib Dems, well, they will have let themselves down and more importantly delivered carte blanche to Boris Johnson. Not winning is out of your hands, but failing to minimise loss and maximise influence is the worst incompetence.
“The Fact Check thing is only a scandal for a very minor group who would never vote Conservative.”
Still probably more people than would have been suckered in by this propaganda stunt.
Now this is straight forward questioning of a Tory minister on past performance!!
https://twitter.com/paul_stothard/status/1197568457853812736?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1197568457853812736&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fmunguin.wordpress.com%2F
Some more amusement:
A pranxter outfit called ‘Led by Donkeys’ previously bought the domain ‘theBrexitParty.com’, after Farrage apparently forgot to buy it when he launched the party. Now they are offering to sell it to him for the price of a million pound donation to the joint council of immigrant welfare
Possibly some more amusement?
Scottish Bishops to advise Catholics not to vote Tory!!
https://www.thenational.scot/news/18046887.bishops-advise-catholics-not-vote-tories-general-election/
Israel is a classic example of why not to have proportional representation.
As many of Israel`s voting blocks have high degrees of geographical concentration, single member electoral districts would not be particularly effective at reducing the number of parties in the Knesset. Single member electorates do not hurt geographically concentrated parties with high votes in their primary area, with the SNP and Bloc Quebecois being major examples.
My Wi Fi failed at 11am on Thursday, and is only back today.
This is the first post-debate poll, and has the Tory/Brexit combined vote down to 45% (-3), with just 3% for Brexit. If Labour increases its vote, either directly from the Tories, or by squeezing the Lib Dems a lot, things get interesting. The generic Remain-Leave gap narrowed to 51-49, so perhaps Labour’s campaign against Boris’ deal is starting to work. Many more polls tomorrow.
Britain Elects @britainelects
·
4h
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (-1)
LAB: 32% (+2)
LDEM: 14% (-1)
BREX: 3% (-2)
GRN: 3% (+1)
via @PanelbaseMD, 20 – 22 Nov
Chgs. w/ 14 Nov
Like the Kantar poll reported above, this Ipsos pre-debate poll is a nightmare for Remainers. And a seat poll is bad news for Labour.
Britain Elects @britainelects
·
21 Nov
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 44% (+3)
LAB: 28% (+4)
LDEM: 16% (-4)
GRN: 3% (-)
BREX: 3% (-4)
via @IpsosMORI, 15 – 19 Nov
Chgs. w/ Oct
Britain Elects @britainelects
·
21 Nov
Great Grimsby, constituency voting intention:
CON: 44% (+2)
LAB: 31% (-18)
BREX: 17% (+17)
LDEM: 4% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+3)
via @Survation, 14 – 15 Nov
Chgs. w/ GE2017
Early this morning in Aus, there was a BBC Question Time special involving the four main party leaders (Tory, Lab, Lib Dem and SNP) answering questions from the public for 30 mins each. If this Guardian commentary is any guide, Jo Swinson was the worst performer. That could shift some Lib Dem votes to Labour.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/22/question-time-leaders-special-who-won-johnson-corbyn-swinson-sturgeon
Swinson reportedly had a trainwreck leaders debate last night. That won’t help the LDs already sliding poll numbers.
A collapsed LD vote helps not only labour, but also remainers.
However countering that, Sturgeon is creating some headaches for Corbyn by basically asserting that a minority labour government, propped up by the SNP will have no choice but to roll over on a Scotish independence vote. The commentariat are currently making a big deal of this, and understandably drawing parrelels with 2015 (when the rise of SNP created fears of a minority labour propped up by SNP). Whether or not this is actually a significant consideration in the electorate is another matter though.
So why is Sturgeon appearing to want to sabotage the chances of the party that is the only realistic hope for remainers (which the SNP is)? On the surface it would seem to be asserting her authority in what she might see as a likely minority remainer government. However a cynic might say that she realises that a tory majority followed by a hard brexit is the best chance for Scotish independence.
Big A Adrian
“ Swinson reportedly had a trainwreck leaders debate last night. That won’t help the LDs already sliding poll numbers.”
——————
What if the SNP defeated Swinson in her seat?
The Tory candidate running dead is likely to save her.
“It’s not hard to construct a plausible-sounding case for the SNP being in with a shout. They’ve beaten Swinson, here before, in the 2015 landslide. They currently hold both of the overlapping Scottish Parliament constituencies, and the LibDems are in a dismal fourth place in those seats. In the European elections in May, the SNP comfortably outpolled the LibDems by 35% to 25% in the East Dunbartonshire Council area. And in the most recent elections to the council itself, they narrowly defeated the Tories, with the LibDems a fair distance back in third.”
https://www.thenational.scot/news/18046950.general-election-analysis-will-jo-swinson-lose-east-dunbartonshire/
Big A Adrian
“….. a minority labour government, propped up by the SNP will have no choice but to roll over on a Scotish independence vote. The commentariat are currently making a big deal of this,”
———
It is very informative that in the precious Union, the idea that the third largest Party in Westminster, should hold a “balance of power” or be in a governing coalition is a cause for horror!
The extremist DUP were able to extract a sizeable payoff to support a Tory government without much fuss.
Secondly, the “blackmail” that Sturgeon may wield is that the people of Scotland be “permitted” by the English controlled Parliament to hold a democratic vote!!
Could there be a better illustration of the disgrace that is Westminster.
Big A Adrian
“ However a cynic might say that she realises that a tory majority followed by a hard brexit is the best chance for Scotish independence.”
—————-
Indeed Big A.
Sturgeon, and the SNP leaders, have been subject to an increasing level of pressure in the independence movement for the degree of emphasis that they have given to campaigning against Brexit. Certainly, Scotland is significantly pro-EU and studies show that Brexit will harm Scotland so they are right to do so.
However, there is a counter argument that the SNP should support Brexit for England in return for English support for Scotland remaining. Then both countries get what they voted for!
Of course the Tories would never agree to that so it’s moot.
The idea that Sturgeon is “sabotaging” Corbyn is ludicrous. The SNP is fighting to remove the last 6 Labour Party seats in Scotland. The recent debate excluded the leader of the largest Westminster Party in Scotland from the debate but gave prominence to the leader of the smallest Westminster Party.
This did not prevent Boris Johnson launching into an attack on Sturgeon and the SNP with no ability of the Scottish Party to respond. Yet the cowardly eton bully boy refuses to debate with Sturgeon.
Mate, I think you better revise your opinion about who is doing the “sabotaging” here.
Swamprat- the people of Scotland had a democratic vote on independence and lost.
Bucephalus
Swamprat- the people of Scotland had a democratic vote on independence and lost..
———-
They certainly did. Lose that is.
1. Why does one vote 5/6 years ago preclude another vote?
2. The Unionists campaigned strongly on voting No in order to stay in the EU. That Scotland is now unwillingly being taken out of the EU is a very big change in circumstances.
3. In 2014 European and English residents in Scotland voted 80% No. it is pretty certain most of the EU residents would now vote Yes given Brexit.
4. In the last week of the 2014 campaign the Unionist forces panicked at polls showing a possible Yes victory and made far reaching “vows” about new federalism. Not one of these “vows” have been kept. Indeed the Tories, who were part of the vows have stripped more powers from the Scottish Government.
5. The Scottish people are entitled to decide when and what they will vote on. It’s a concept called democracy, opposed by Tories everywhere. 🙂
I think the Scottish people are entitled to another vote – on the basis that unlike the last referendum, Scotland is about to crash out of the EU against the wishes of the vast majority of their population.
The Labour Manifesto is even worse than 1983. These wallies still think socialism can work. Boris is going to cream them.
Great manifesto but fear will win and ordinary people suffer.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/11/19/uk-election-minus-three-weeks/comment-page-1/#comment-3289793
Even an England only/England and Wales only departure from the Customs Union will hurt Scotland, not just in trade with England/England and Wales but also through border checks slowing down trade with mainland Europe through England (driving to English ferry ports is often faster than longer ferry journeys because of ferry speeds).
Feels a foregone conclusion to me. The seat polling i can see that Lab is losing Tory target pickups all over the place at the same time as Tories losing little on the Lab/LibDem target pickup list.
So, taking the long-term lense, we’re talking a v hard if not no deal Brexit followed by a nationwide recession. Scotland and N Ireland clearly feel the consequences. These chickens should all have come home to roost in some form by 2024.
The irony is that Corbyn prob then might have the best opportunity for his hard left manifesto, but one presumes he wont stick around after this imminent humiliating loss even if he wants to.
Lab better start looking for its nxt Tony Blair, as the 1997 opportunity will surely be there. Any remotely electable leader and they would surely be in a winning position this time around.
Starmer?
I would be delighted if Swinson lost her seat, she too has proved a joke. Maybe some “we told you so” electoral comeback potential, its a pity all the real talented defections (Gymiah, Ummuna) are likely not going to be MPs.
The total drainage of quality MPs from the commons is the saddest part of it… all those from all sides who had a moderate centrist slant have pretty much all decided that its over or are in unwinnable situations.
I think there is a material chance of Boris going into the books as the guy who presided over the breakup of the UK
Such depressing times ahead. Morrisson winning in aus not really close to this degree of despair. Trump winning again next year will just complete it. From political tragic to, i suspect, completely switching off for many like me(?)
oh dear, latest opinium poll now has the tories on a massive 19 point lead, with the tories on 47%. First poll where brexit party not running in every seat is taken into account.
Big A, that Opinium looks like an outlier. The five other polls released this weekend have Tories plus Brexit at 44-47%, while Opinium has them at 50%. There’s too many Lib Dem votes for Labour to win, while the Brexit party vote is down to 3% in five polls, assisting the Tories.
Britain Elects @britainelects
·
52m
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (-)
LAB: 32% (+1)
LDEM: 15% (-)
BREX: 5% (-)
GRN: 2% (-)
via @SavantaComRes, 20 – 21 Nov
Chgs. w/ 19 Nov
Britain Elects @britainelects
·
1h
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 43% (-2)
LAB: 30% (-)
LDEM: 16% (+5)
BREX: 3% (-3)
via @DeltapollUK
Chgs. w/ 16 Nov
Britain Elects @britainelects
·
3h
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 41% (+4)
LAB: 28% (-1)
LDEM: 18% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)
BREX: 3% (-6)
via @BMGResearch, 19 – 21 Nov
Chgs. w/ 15 Nov
Britain Elects @britainelects
·
4h
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (+3)
LAB: 28% (-)
LDEM: 12% (-2)
BREX: 3% (-3)
via @OpiniumResearch
Chgs. w/ 15 Nov
Britain Elects @britainelects
·
9h
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (-)
LAB: 30% (-)
LDEM: 16% (+1)
GRN: 4% (-)
BREX: 3% (-1)
via @YouGov, 21 – 22 Nov
Chgs. w/ 19 Nov
Here are three seat polls showing Remain splits further assisting the Tories.
Britain Elects @britainelects
·
4h
Hendon, constituency voting intention:
CON: 51% (+3)
LAB: 33% (-13)
LDEM: 12% (+8)
GRN: 1% (-)
via @DeltapollUK, 14 – 20 Nov
Chgs. w/ GE2017
Britain Elects @britainelects
·
4h
Chelsea & Fulham, constituency voting intention:
CON: 48% (-5)
LDEM: 25% (+14)
LAB: 24% (-9)
via @DeltapollUK, 14 – 21 Nov
Chgs. w/ GE2017
Britain Elects @britainelects
·
4h
Cities of London & Westminster, constituency voting intention:
CON: 39% (-8)
LDEM: 33% (+22)
LAB: 26% (-12)
GRN: 1% (-1)
via @DeltapollUK, 14 – 21 Nov
Chgs. w/ GE2017