The heat is on

An issues poll finds concern about climate change up since the May federal election, and national security down.

One sort-of-poll, and three items of Liberal preselection news:

• The latest results of the JWS Research True Issues survey records growing concern about the environment and climate change, which is now rated among the top five most important issues by 38% of respondents, compared with 33% in June and 31% a year ago. There is diminishing concern about immigration and border security (26%, down from 30% in June and 34% last November and defence, security and terrorism (18%, down from 20% in June and 29% a year ago). A range of measures of general optimism and perceptions of government performance produced weaker results than the June survey, which appeared to record a post-election spike in positive sentiment.

• Jim Molan will shortly return to the Senate after winning a party vote last weekend to fill the New South Wales Senate vacancy caused by Arthur Sinodinos’s resignation. Molan scored 321 votes to 260 for former state party director Richard Shields, adding a second silver medal to his collection after being shaded by Dave Sharma in Wentworth last year. This was despite Molan’s attempt to retain his seat from number four on the ticket at the May election by beseeching supporters to vote for him below the line, to the displeasure of some in the party (and still more of the Nationals, who would have been the losers if Molan had succeeded). Molan was reportedly able to secure moderate faction support due to the apprehension that he will not seek another term beyond the next election.

• The Victorian Liberal Party is embroiled in a dispute over a plan for preselection proceedings for the next federal election to start as soon as January, which has been endorsed by the party’s administrative committee but is bitterly opposed by affected federal MPs. The committee is determined not to see a repeat of the previous term, when preselections were taken out of the hands of branch members to head off a number of challenges to sitting members. Those challenges might now come to fruition, most notably a threat to Howard government veteran Kevin Andrews, whose seat of Menzies is of interest to Keith Wolahan, a barrister and former army officer. Tim Wilson in Goldstein and Russell Broadbent in Monash (formerly McMillan) have also been mentioned as potential targets. According to Rob Harris of The Age, votes in Liberal-held seats could happen as soon as late February, with marginal seats to unfold from April to August and Labor-held seats to be taken care of in October.

• Matthew Denholm of The Australian ($) reports Eric Abetz and his conservative supporters believe they have seen off a threat to his position at the top of the Liberals’ Tasmanian Senate ticket, following elections for the state party’s preselection committee. Abetz’s opponents believed he should make way for rising star Jonathan Duniam to head the ticket, and for the secure second seat to go to Wendy Askew, one of the Tasmanian Liberals’ limited retinue of women MPs.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,475 comments on “The heat is on”

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  2. Classic from the Daily Show highlighting Devin Nunes’ bad day:

    https://twitter.com/thedailyshow/status/1197253318713774082?s=21

    Tight analysis from Chris Cuomo here exposing the truth about how Nunes and Trump are knowingly parroting Vladimir Putin’s deliberate conspiracy theory that Ukraine was behind the 2016 US election interference, not Russia.

    https://twitter.com/cuomoprimetime/status/1198077662885007361?s=21

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/lev-parnas-ready-to-testify-about-devin-nunes-role-in-trumps-ukraine-dirt-digging-mission-cnn

    Rep. Eric Swalwell in the impeachment inquiry reveals to the world details of the Daily Beast article. Tells Nunes his desperate accusations against Adam Schiff are projection; and that in fact, it appears that Nunes is a fact witness in the impeachment inquiry itself. Not a good day for Nunes, Trump or Putin.

    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1197607345414660098?s=21

  5. Bloomberg is spending a few of the many dollars at his disposal:

    Michael R. Bloomberg is spending $30 million for a week’s worth of 60-second ads.

    Bloomberg Prepares Huge TV Blitz

    Michael Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York City and expected presidential candidate, is buying ads in more than two dozen states.

    4h ago (NYT headline)

  6. citizen:

    Bloomberg is the highest spending candidate ever in a single week.

    Advertising Analytics@Ad_Analytics
    8h8 hours ago
    He’s done it. @MikeBloomberg has spent the most money of any candidate ever on a single week of political advertising. We’re looking at $31M dollars from 11/25-12/3.

  7. PhoenixRed

    I still cant fathom how Devin Nunes is sitting as a ranking member on the impeachment proceedings, making accusations of the Democrats and witnesses. And yet he is right in the middle of the conspiracy. You seriously couldn’t make this shit up.

  8. As Eric Garland so eloquently put it.

    Eric Garland
    @ericgarland
    ·
    16h
    Replying to
    @ericgarland
    First, remember that while the American political system is driving inexorably toward impeaching Trump, he is but a symptom of the real crisis – a coup against civilization by oligarchs around the world looking to rid themselves of liberal democracy.

  9. Another funny thing about Lev Parnas is that he says he is singing because he was insulted that after he was arrested Trump said he didn’t know him! Of course there are multiple photos of the two together and I think 10 times they met.

  10. The jig was up when Lev Parnas and his associate were arrested and indicted weeks ago.
    Guiliani, Nunes, and the rest of the rat bag crew surely dont expect Trump to come to the rescue. LOL!

  19. Victoria says: Saturday, November 23, 2019 at 4:38 pm

    PhoenixRed

    I still cant fathom how Devin Nunes is sitting as a ranking member on the impeachment proceedings

    *******************************************************

    I still can’t understand the collective mentality of the US people who can’t seems to see through this whole list of characters who should be in jail instead of the Senate ……

    They were happy to impeach Bill Clinton over a BJ ….. but turn a blind eye to traitorous conduct of conspiring with a foreign country to falsely install a puppet President as well as destroying their – ” never ending battle for truth, justice, and the American way.”

  21. Rex

    Well, you’re welcome to start discussing Australian politics. I’ve never actually seen you discuss anything, but there’s always a first time.

  23. Victoria

    Yes, you are probably my right. He’s singing because he got caught. It’s just amusing that he’s made it known he wasn’t happy Trump cast him off as another coffee boy.

  24. PhoenixRed

    The public are most likely seeing it as partisan politics rather than what it really is.
    We will probably never know the full extent of the underground war that has been going on around the globe.
    Just look at the intersections of what has transpired in last few months.
    Assange ousted from Ecuadorian embassy.
    Stone convicted, Epstein arrested and then suicided.
    Lev Parnas and friend indicted.
    Impeachment proceedings.
    And UK election just to name a few.

  27. I always chuckle when commenters complain about the discussion of US politics here.

    Firstly it occupies a very small proportion of comments over the course of a day where discussion is literally dominated by electricity wars, goal shifting non-debate about AGW, Labor-Greens flame wars, or individual obsessions about the characteristics of other commenters.

    Secondly those of us who do engage with the subject don’t attack other commenters. We don’t troll, bait or seek to inflame or name-call others. We tend to discuss the issues, not individual commenters. I’ve noticed that those who complain tend to be those who say nothing when discussion descends into personal attacks and boring, circular go nowhere ‘debate’.

    Thirdly, individuals can post whatever they want subject to William’s tolerance, so if the discussion is boring you, why not lead by example and post something you want to discuss?

  29. Confessions says: Saturday, November 23, 2019 at 4:59 pm

    I always chuckle when commenters complain about the discussion of US politics here.

    ********************************************************

    Great Post Confessions – the greatness of Poll Bludger is the diversity of opinions and topics !!!!!

  30. Confessions @ #2377 Saturday, November 23rd, 2019 – 4:59 pm

    I always chuckle when commenters complain about the discussion of US politics here.

    Firstly it occupies a very small proportion of comments over the course of a day where discussion is literally dominated by electricity wars, goal shifting non-debate about AGW, Labor-Greens flame wars, or individual obsessions about the characteristics of other commenters.

    Secondly those of us who do engage with the subject don’t attack other commenters. We don’t troll, bait or seek to inflame or name-call others. We tend to discuss the issues, not individual commenters. I’ve noticed that those who complain tend to be those who say nothing when discussion descends into personal attacks and boring, circular go nowhere ‘debate’.

    Thirdly, individuals can post whatever they want subject to William’s tolerance, so if the discussion is boring you, why not lead by example and post something you want to discuss?

    I’d like to discuss how Lib-Labs backing of thermal coal exports is as murderous as the GOP/Dem backing of the NRA.

  31. What fools the Liberals are!
    The Liberals should just copy the Greens Zero/2030 lock, stock and barrel.
    If the Liberals really want to be in power for the next couple of decades, that is.

  32. Rex Douglas says: Saturday, November 23, 2019 at 5:02 pm

    I’d like to discuss how Lib-Labs backing of thermal coal exports is as murderous as the GOP/Dem backing of the NRA

    *************************************************************

    OK – there is the challenge for like minded PollBludger’s ….go for it …

  34. When Trump took over, he and the GOP theoretically enacted a better and more confrontational policy that included military aid to Ukraine. But that new policy was a sham; Hill and Holmes, with discipline and candor, made it clear that in fact Giuliani and Sondland, among others, were conducting a shadow operation designed to thwart the people who were trying to execute what, at the time, was stated U.S. government policy.

    The Ukraine situation could erupt into World War III. The people and Congress of the United States enacted a law to help Ukraine defend itself. But all Donald Trump wanted out of it was an announcement on American television that Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden was under investigation by a foreign country.

    There is no denying any of this anymore, and the Republicans are no longer even bothering to pretend that the attempted extortion of a friend didn’t happen. They have instead dumped a mushy, rancid pile of conspiracy theories and a jumble of names most of them don’t understand onto a situation shot through with moral clarity.

    Very few people in Washington know Russia and Ukraine as well as Hill and Holmes. They have told us that we are going down the road the Kremlin has gladly paved for us, while a war drags on in Europe and our elections face yet another attack from enemy intelligence services. But Donald Trump, his servile party and his resolutely cultish followers have never wanted to hear from honest experts, and they are unlikely to start now.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2019/11/22/trump-impeachment-fiona-hill-david-holmes-russia-testimony-column/4263318002/

  35. Player One

    It is this whole “Australia can be a Renewable Energy Powerhouse” shtick that gets me very angry. This is just an out-and-out lie, designed to distract from the fact that Australia is in fact one of the world’s largest “Greenhouse Gas Powerhouses”, and seems very likely to stay that way

    If Australia becomes a renewable energy powerhouse it will completely counteract the malign political influence of the Coal Lobby and allow rational decisions to be made. BHP and perhaps Rio have already scaled back their politicking (IIRC Rio joined BHP in threatening to leave the minerals council), leaving it to ratbags like Mr. Palmer.

    What’s needed is at least strong exports of clean aluminium (cf. extemely dirty Chinese coal-fired aluminium) and steel etc. Exporting power can work to East Timor at least (we should do a friendly deal in that case to compensate them for some rather regrettable behaviour) and PNG (where we need to recover lost ground on the diplomatic front), and once in can offer to Indonesia (e.g. Bali, West Timor) on terms that advance our interests. Indonesians might refuse of course… If someone wants to try getting from Timor to Sarawak, Brunei or Singapore without Indonesia it’s about 2500 km to Sarawak. Trick would be for Aus govt to support it properly, rather than allowing what’s happened to gas to happen again

  36. phoenixRed, Vic:

    It’s quite remarkable when you think about it, and testimony to Hill’s commitment to her job that she has lasted as long as she did in Trump’s Administration. Wolf Blitzer signed off his show tonight with a push back to Trumpists and their apologists with a sort of tribute to immigrants and children of immigrants like Hill.

    https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2019/11/23/wolf-blitzer-immigrant-witnesses-impeachment-sot-tsr-vpx.cnn

  38. Confessions says: Saturday, November 23, 2019 at 5:16 pm

    phoenixRed, Vic:

    It’s quite remarkable when you think about it, and testimony to Hill’s commitment to her job that she has lasted as long as she did in Trump’s Administration. Wolf Blitzer signed off his show tonight with a push back to Trumpists and their apologists with a sort of tribute to immigrants and children of immigrants like Hill.

    ******************************************************************

    I have lived in the US and China for a spell and found the average American/Chinese was just like the average Aussie – trying their best to provide for their own welfare and their family ….. and were disconnected to what their leaders acted upon

    I don’t have blinkers and can often understand why Americans enemies call it ‘The Great Satan” for what they have done in interfering in other countries …..

    Hopefully this Trump fiasco will end – and if Churchill summed them up correctly – “Americans Will Always Do the Right Thing… once all other possibilities have been exhausted.”

  39. @Rex: Well, what is there to discuss about Australian politics? How our “Government” are all shitheels – every single one – but Murdoch will make sure they get re-elected ad nauseum? Their blatant incompetence, cronyism and corruption – but Australians don’t care? The mile-wide anti-science, anti-compassion, anti-intellectual, anti-anything-but-memememe streak in the Australian consciousness?

    There’s only so many ways to say, “Australia’s totally fucked, but we deserve it because we keep voting for it!” before it gets both boring and depressing.

  42. Nath

    there is no positive view of the future that does not include an increasingly democratic China. But that is for them to work out.

    China can become a positive contributor by adopting the rule of law, and not necessarily democracy.

    Commerce was driving China towards the rule of law (commerce is always the most powerful driver towards law), unfortunately this has dissapated in recent years.

    Partly this is due to Mr Xi (although he is mainly exploiting the changed circumstances in an attempt to become the first Princeling Emperor of the Xi dynasty) but also:
    – Mr Trump’s idiotic (at best) destruction of the TPP, a security alliance that included Viet Nam (courtesy of the three Viet Nam Vet senator-amigos) for goodness sake has let PLAN (an army that long marches on water) continue its idiocy and undermined the rule of law as it applies to that dispute
    – If Mr Trump does a mercantilist trade deal with Mr. Xi then in addition to the great harm any plausible deal will do to Australia it will further undermine the rule of law regarding trade (as all mercantilism does)
    – Incompetent and possibly unlawful conduct by commercial agents of the Commonwealth government in PNG has undermined the rule of law and given the Chinese an opportunity to fill the breach
    – Locally, those who think the Commonwealth Goverment should override quasi-legal processes in an ad hoc manner further undermines the rule of law and is perceived by the Chinese that we’re not serious about the rule of law, further undermining it
    – Human rights law is principally a reaction to lack of access by the underpowered to real law; as such it is a necessary temporary measure, which would be superseded if the underpowered had proper access (with equality of means) to the rule of law. Attempting to embarrass the Chinese government in relation to human rights is pointless in any event, and counter productive because any one can see that the embedded political aspect tends to undermine the rule of law by confusion of properly separate powers (Note for the unsubtle: I am not saying human rights is currently unnecessary; I am saying it is sub-optimal in comparison to the ideal situation where parties are genuinely equal under the rule of law, in particular in relation to mean and thus access)

  43. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/23/malcolm-turnbull-says-liberals-struggles-with-climate-denial-are-hurting-australia

    Don’t get depressed. The states and local governments are working to Paris targets. The only fly in the ointment for Labor to attack on this is their environmental credibility. After the Queensland state election Labor can be strong on the environment again.

    Environmentalists will vote Green due to Adani because of the state government federally. Labor will mop up the rest.

    By the time of the next Federal election both the Labor and Green vote will have improved. The false promises of the Nationals (It’s already started happening) and One Nation will have been exposed.

    Already Rupert Murdoch has told shareholders that there are no climate denialists in his media empire. So we know a shift is going to happen. That’s before the impact of Democrats in the Whitehouse with maybe control of Congress.

    It will be a very different election. Just like it’s a very different election in 2020 from 2016 for the Democrats.

    Rex. That’s why the US election is so important. It’s going to change world politics and reinforce the move leftwards back to the centre we have seen voters taking in Europe and Israel.

    The left is pushing back against the right. It’s not going to be long before people remember the ACT and Adern government’s are Centre left. Not the radical left many try and make out.

    Even with Labor’s loss in NSW due to its toxic connection to corruption like the GOP is facing in the US, we still got abortion legalised and big spending on transport that are not roads.

    The right wing are fighting against what the people want but be in no doubt the progressive cause is advancing. Trump falling will mean a return to sane politics from everyone

    The only question is will we be a dictatorship being forced by external forces to move with humanitarian motives or a government that wants to move back that way faster. The best thing about the authoritarian push of the LNP is that the backlash could see Human Rights at the top of the agenda. Starting with making the government accountable.

    It could very well be an “It’s Time” momentum for change.
    Especially if asI think unlikely that Sanders is US President. The world benchmark that we measure against will have changed dramatically

  44. Rex Douglas @ #2380 Saturday, November 23rd, 2019 – 5:02 pm

    I’d like to discuss how Lib-Labs backing of thermal coal exports is as murderous as the GOP/Dem backing of the NRA.

    For goodness sake, Rex – haven’t we been discussing fossil fuel policy all day? Sure, often fossil fuels are not mentioned directly, but don’t be dense – this is what it is all about. Always. Every time.

    Did it never occur to you to wonder why so many of the same people who are keen to open new coal mines in Australia are also keen to build an undersea cable to export electricity from Australia to Asia, but who conveniently forget to mention that Australia generates the bulk of its electricity from coal, and will continue to do so for decades?

    Or why it is that so many of the same people are so keen to talk up the “hydrogen economy”, but who conveniently forget to mention that the most cost-effective way to generate hydrogen is from natural gas, and will continue to be for decades?

    And what is Australia the world’s leading exporter of these days? Is it just a coincidence that it is coal and natural gas?

    Now, don’t get me wrong – I’m not saying that everyone who is in favor of exporting electricity via undersea cables, or exporting hydrogen, is also in favor of fossil fuels, but do you think it is just a happy coincidence that those in favor of fossil fuels are also in favor of undersea cables and hydrogen?

    If you believe that, I have an undersea cable project you may want to invest in 🙁

  45. IBAC

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/ibac-probe-into-alleged-council-corruption-not-a-moment-too-soon-20191122-p53d15.html

    The opening statement of an investigation delving into alleged corruption at a council in Melbourne’s south-east lays out a simple proposition by quoting a High Court judge: “One universally recognised form of corruption is for a public official to receive money in a private capacity in circumstances calculated to influence the performance of the official’s public duties.” In many respects, the principle of quid pro quo goes to the heart of the anti-corruption probe by IBAC into the City of Casey.
    :::
    Among the IBAC inquiry’s stated goals is to take a very close look at the transparency and integrity of planning and property development decision-making within Victoria, including donations to political candidates, that may result in possible corruption. It will also focus in on whether the use of professional lobbyists or planning consultants to lobby governments has resulted in undue influence over those making the decisions. By the looks of what is going on at the City of Casey, and possibly statewide, it is not a moment too soon.

  46. Simon Love @SimoLove
    · 7h

    Josh Frydenberg has taken a swing at @billshortenmp & @DanielAndrewsMP for having a celebratory drink the day before May’s federal election. But – they were actually having a toast to Bob Hawke at the John Curtin hotel the day after the former PM died. @10NewsFirstMelb

    Josh isn’t backing down. He believes his own lies.

  47. Marty Fargo @MartinRolfe2
    ·
    27m

    Yes, I live in the hills. Just last year, of a night, my lone light stood out like a beacon, moths and beatles and bugs tapping incessantly upon the glass. This year, it is absolutely silent. The night carries barely a sound. I think we’ve friggin blown it folks.

  48. Zoomster re Darwin port leased to Chinese

    Is it occupied and administered directly by the Chinese military? Are Australians banned from accessing it? Are we able to find out what goes on there?

    My answers are:
    – No, but… (but Chinese corporate law deems every coporation to be a (usually later) organ of the government (effectively the government is automatically the only permitted holder of the single permitted golden share in every Chinese corporation)
    – No, nor is this likely to occur
    – Yes, but the are limits, particularly in relation to capability and perhaps (Aus spy agencies need more NSA/GCHQ culture and less CIA culture)
    The Darwin Port situation (triggered by vertical fiscal imbalance, which is a national security risk) being allowed to proceed is monumental incomptentece by the Commonwealth government, but probably nothing more.

  50. Oh, and one more thing about building a solar farm in Australia to export electricity to Singapore.

    In Australia, electricity is worth about 25-40c per kWh.
    In Singapore, electricity is worth about 17c per kWh.

    Now, hands up anyone who thinks it makes sense to build a solar farm in Australia, but instead of selling the electricity to Australians at up to 40c per kWh, to export it 3,800 miles across a cable that is predicted to cost around $20 billion dollars to build, and into a market where it is worth around half that?

    Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

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