The heat is on

An issues poll finds concern about climate change up since the May federal election, and national security down.

One sort-of-poll, and three items of Liberal preselection news:

• The latest results of the JWS Research True Issues survey records growing concern about the environment and climate change, which is now rated among the top five most important issues by 38% of respondents, compared with 33% in June and 31% a year ago. There is diminishing concern about immigration and border security (26%, down from 30% in June and 34% last November and defence, security and terrorism (18%, down from 20% in June and 29% a year ago). A range of measures of general optimism and perceptions of government performance produced weaker results than the June survey, which appeared to record a post-election spike in positive sentiment.

• Jim Molan will shortly return to the Senate after winning a party vote last weekend to fill the New South Wales Senate vacancy caused by Arthur Sinodinos’s resignation. Molan scored 321 votes to 260 for former state party director Richard Shields, adding a second silver medal to his collection after being shaded by Dave Sharma in Wentworth last year. This was despite Molan’s attempt to retain his seat from number four on the ticket at the May election by beseeching supporters to vote for him below the line, to the displeasure of some in the party (and still more of the Nationals, who would have been the losers if Molan had succeeded). Molan was reportedly able to secure moderate faction support due to the apprehension that he will not seek another term beyond the next election.

• The Victorian Liberal Party is embroiled in a dispute over a plan for preselection proceedings for the next federal election to start as soon as January, which has been endorsed by the party’s administrative committee but is bitterly opposed by affected federal MPs. The committee is determined not to see a repeat of the previous term, when preselections were taken out of the hands of branch members to head off a number of challenges to sitting members. Those challenges might now come to fruition, most notably a threat to Howard government veteran Kevin Andrews, whose seat of Menzies is of interest to Keith Wolahan, a barrister and former army officer. Tim Wilson in Goldstein and Russell Broadbent in Monash (formerly McMillan) have also been mentioned as potential targets. According to Rob Harris of The Age, votes in Liberal-held seats could happen as soon as late February, with marginal seats to unfold from April to August and Labor-held seats to be taken care of in October.

Matthew Denholm of The Australian ($) reports Eric Abetz and his conservative supporters believe they have seen off a threat to his position at the top of the Liberals’ Tasmanian Senate ticket, following elections for the state party’s preselection committee. Abetz’s opponents believed he should make way for rising star Jonathan Duniam to head the ticket, and for the secure second seat to go to Wendy Askew, one of the Tasmanian Liberals’ limited retinue of women MPs.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,475 comments on “The heat is on”

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  1. lefty e @ #2299 Saturday, November 23rd, 2019 – 1:55 pm

    Check Sacha Baron-Cohen out of character for the first time on video, and tearing Facebook et al a fresh one. Compelling viewing:

    “Sacha Baron Cohen: Facebook would have let Hitler buy ads for ‘final solution’”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=887&v=ymaWq5yZIYM&feature=emb_logo

    Yes, ‘fess linked to this at about 8.30 this morning. Well worth spending about 25 minutes watching it.

  2. No, the worst thing in the Lieberals’ book is a Liberal Rat. They are more vindictive than Labor. In this case the ‘rat’ is named Oliver Yates. In the real world he is a principled man. You can see why Buce has nothing but contempt for him.

  3. fred

    Just so you don’t have to struggle with search engines:

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/asias-powerhouse-fuels-global-surge-in-coal-use/news-story/036671a2882cacfec880d7b0fdd0d480

    “ From January last year to June this year, countries outside China decreased their total coal power capacity by 8.1 gigawatts through steady retirements and an ongoing decline in the commissioning of new coal plants. But across the same period China increased its coal fleet by 42.9GW, and as a result the global coal fleet overall grew by 34.9GW.

    In short, the increase in China’s coal-fired capacity across the 18-month period was equal to about eight times Australia’s total electricity capacity of 51GW.”

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/hungary-rules-out-treasurer-josh-frydenberg-as-citizen/news-story/f455ca99d65fea558110200d1b92eaca

    “ The Hungarian government has confirmed Josh Frydenberg has no “established” claim to citizenship in new correspondence ­likely to damage a climate activist’s High Court challenge testing the Treasurer’s eligibility to sit in federal parliament.

    The Weekend Australian ­understands Mr Frydenberg ­received a letter from the Hungarian Prime Minister’s ­Office this week ruling out dual-citizenship following searches of the central European nation’s records.”

  4. I don’t know why we would worry about China – or anyone for that matter – building new coal-fired power stations.

    The “three amigos” here on PB have assured us all that world coal demand is going to decline … any minute now ….

  5. Dandy

    You may disagree with it but I do make cogent and sound argument as to why I think Warren will win the Democratic Nomination.

    You will note I have said Johnson needs a clear majority to win the UK election and get his no deal Brexit.

    I think these are as firm and cogent as you can get.

    Just as I have said Adani has been turned into a symbol of Labor’s environmental policy. Just like tax and spend is the LNP and many pundits commentary on Labor and economic management.

    With Adani I have only argued it’s environmental credentials at stake. Instead Labor should be backing its successful carbon price. Pointing out the rise of emissions since Labor was in power.

    On the latter Albanese has listed what the government has done with the new party leader trend started by Jacinda Adern with a two minute listing of his view of the LNP. Emission rises was in there.

  6. guytaur,
    You would be well advised to heed the words here:

    Since 2000, the combination of stagnation, widening inequality, and the increasing cost of maintaining elite status has arguably had a more pronounced impact on the professional elite than on the working class, which was already largely marginalized by that point. Elites outside of the very top found themselves falling further behind their supposed cultural peers, without being able to look forward to rapidly rising incomes for themselves.

    This underappreciated reality at least partially explains one of the apparent puzzles of American politics in recent years: namely, that members of the elite often seem far more radical than the working class, both in their candidate choices and overall outlook. Although better off than the working class, lower-level elites appear to be experiencing far more intense status anxiety.

    The election of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), to Congress offers a clear demonstration of this. Her strongest support came from comparatively affluent, “gentrifying” neighborhoods. Her opponent, the establishment Democrat Joe Crowley, did better in poorer areas.

    Likewise, there is more “socialist” organizing in Silicon Valley and elite college campuses today than in working-class exurbs. Elizabeth Warren outpolls the comparative moderate Joe Biden by nearly two to one among voters with college degrees and among voters earning over $100,000 per year. (Bernie Sanders is near the top in both categories as well.) Many of the most aggressive proposals associated with the Left—such as student loan forgiveness and “free college”—are targeted at the top 30 percent, if not higher. Even Medicare for All could potentially benefit households earning between $100,000 and $200,000 the most; cohorts below that are already subsidized. Moreover, as Matthew Yglesias has pointed out, “In the past five years, white liberals have moved so far to the left on questions of race and racism that they are now, on these issues, to the left of even the typical black voter.” Identity issues are often considered separate from economics, yet economic anxieties are almost certainly contributing to these trends among white liberal professionals. Whatever the underlying merits of “woke” critiques and causes might be, these postures are mainly adopted in intra-elite competition for positions and influence.

    The personal trajectory of Elizabeth Warren, an avatar of this class in many ways, almost perfectly represents the political trajectory of the professional class: first they abandoned the Republican Party and then continued to move further into the left wing of the Democratic Party. Warren, in fact, is one of the few members of the professional elite to display anything close to what might be called “class consciousness.” Her 2004 book The Two-Income Trap focused mainly on the increasing pressures faced by middle-class households, and her policy remedies have grown progressively more ambitious since then. These shifts have been accelerated among younger generations, who never enjoyed the decades of growth for elites before 2000.

    The recent leftward movement of the upper middle class recalls the rightward drift that occurred in the 1970s and 80s. This previous movement was arguably more decisive politically than any awakening of the infamous “middle American radicals”—political priorities are almost always set by the affluent, after all—and could also be interpreted as a response to changing economic circumstances for the professional class. In David T. Bazelon’s formulation, the shift to supply-side Republicans and neoliberal Democrats represented a “new strategy” for the professional elite.

    Note to moderator- I haven’t quoted this in its entirety and I do not have a link, my son sent it to me. 🙂

  7. The Weekend Australian ­understands Mr Frydenberg ­received a letter from the Hungarian Prime Minister’s ­Office this week ruling out dual-citizenship following searches of the central European nation’s records.”

    Surely there’s no hint of a quid pro quo here?

    Tony Abbott doubles down on praise for Hungary’s far-right PM Viktor Orbán

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/13/tony-abbott-doubles-down-on-praise-for-hungarys-far-right-pm-viktor-orban

  8. Confessions

    I think Buttigieg has the best chance of getting into the top tier. However don’t ignore the national polls. Biden may be Clinton 2.0 but remember that’s what we got in 2016 from the Democrats.

    Sanders has a strong position. Just like Trump did. It’s just Sanders is the real deal not the con.

    I think the Democrats won’t do as the GOP did. So I think eventually the Democrats will compromise and vote for Warren. I just don’t think Buttigieg will win if Biden does fail.

    Apparently so do two Billionaires and Duvall.
    Michael Moore who told us about those swing states disagrees with me and is backing Sanders.

  9. Giuliani associate willing to tell Congress Nunes met with ex-Ukrainian official to get dirt on Biden

    Parnas was working to push a pair of unfounded claims: that Ukrainians interfered in the ’16 election on behalf of Democrats and that Biden was acting corruptly in Ukraine on behalf of his son Hunter. According to Parnas’s lawyer, Parnas said Nunes worked to push similar claims.

    There is no evidence the Bidens acted inappropriately. Nor is there evidence that Ukraine interfered in the 2016 election. Yet these claims have been a key part of the public defense of Trump put forth by Nunes and other Republicans during the impeachment hearings this month.

    Parnas’s lawyer says Parnas is also willing to talk about a series of meetings he took part in at the Trump International Hotel in DC about Ukraine. claims he was part of a “team” which met several times a week in a private room on the second floor of the Trump Hotel.

    The group, according to Parnas’s lawyer, included Rudy Giuliani, Lev Parnas, the journalist John Solomon, and the married attorneys Joe diGenova and Victoria Toensing.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/22/politics/nunes-vienna-trip-ukrainian-prosecutor-biden/index.html

  10. Cat

    Lots of words by someone who did not heed the lesson from the recent elections. Hopefully it continues to fool the GOP.

    Sanders held a rally just before the Kentucky election.

    The GOP tried using that bogeyman in that and the other November elections. Totally failed.

    Anyone telling you Sanders and AOC will lose the election for the Democrats is therefore blowing smoke up your butt.

    Edit: Thats like Labor winning elections in Queensland with Bob Brown and John Setka next to Bill Shorten at the campaign launch.

  11. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, November 23, 2019 at 2:33 pm
    I reckon ‘quid pro quo’ will be the ‘word’ of the year in 2020.

    I was thinking of saying “this sounds a bit suss” but “quid pro quo” sounded much more appropriate in the current political environment!

  12. guytaur,
    Spoken like a true middle class boy who has probably never been out of inner city Sydney on a train to Mount Druitt in his life. 🙂

  13. It seems Sanders is pulling ahead of Warren in the latest polls. I wasn’t sure if he’d recover after his heart attack, but perhaps that speaks to the strength of his messaging. I like how he spoke about criminal liability of the fossil fuel industry. Climate change is the main reason I’ve been following this after losing hope in Australia taking leadership

  14. Cat

    Spoken by the great deflector.

    Go for the smear and discredit. The election results in Kentucky after Sanders held his rally there are crystal clear.

    No matter how hard you try you can’t change those facts.

  15. Labor and the LibNats doing the business for thermal coal exporters is as murderous as the GOP/Dems doing the business for the NRA.

  16. Bonza.

    Yes.

    It’s fun to watch some Sanders supporters attacking Warren for being a sellout to corporate Democrats over Medicare. News to Billionaire’s I would think. 🙂

  17. guytaur @ #2323 Saturday, November 23rd, 2019 – 2:44 pm

    Cat

    Spoken by the great deflector.

    Go for the smear and discredit. The election results after in Kentucky after Sanders held his rally there are crystal clear.

    No matter how hard you try you can’t change those facts.

    Bernie Sanders won the election for the Democrats in Kentucky!?!
    Lol. Now you are even making up your own ‘facts’. Though I think you’ve been doing that for quite a while. Then you pretend they are ‘facts’ as you constantly refer back to them.

    guytaur,
    There are none so blind as those who will not see how much of a bourgeoise tosser they are. The truth is probably more like most of Kentucky didn’t even know and didn’t even care that Bernie Sanders had a rally in their state, especially when it came time to cast their vote.

    I thought you had grown up a little bit. Apparently not.

  18. Bucephalus,

    “ The Hungarian government has confirmed Josh Frydenberg has no “established” claim to citizenship in new correspondence ­likely to damage a climate activist’s High Court challenge testing the Treasurer’s eligibility to sit in federal parliament.

    The Weekend Australian ­understands Mr Frydenberg ­received a letter from the Hungarian Prime Minister’s ­Office this week ruling out dual-citizenship following searches of the central European nation’s records.”

    2 points:
    1. “­understands Mr Frydenberg ­received a letter” means the reporter didn’t see it. It’s just a press release. We are expected to take the word of a member of the Liars Party that such a letter, if it exists, has been reported correctly;
    and
    2. an ” “established” claim” whatever that is, doesn’t fully meet the requirements of S44 which talks about being “entitled to the rights or privileges of a subject or a citizen of a foreign power”. Entitlement, you see, not “established claim”.

    That’s the trouble with using the Oz as a resource. You miss part of the story.

  19. Cat

    You are the blind one.

    I did not pretend Sanders was running in the Democratic Campaign.

    You keep up the deflection. It doesn’t change the facts.

    I will repeat them for you.

    Senator Sanders held a rally in Kentucky just before the election campaign.
    The GOP used Sanders and AOC as the bogeyman.
    The Democrats won the election in Kentucky.

    Therefore it’s logical to conclude the scarey bogeyman failed to stop a Democrat win.

    Edit: Note no nasty attacks to discredit you based on where you live or what you assume my income level is.

  20. Warren doesn’t really support Medicare For All. Her policy is the same as Biden’s: to aim for a public option. She merely supports the slogan of Medicare For All. She has finally come out openly to say that she will only push for Medicare For All in the third year of her presidency. Remember that the party that controls the White House normally loses seats in the House and Senate in the mid-term elections. So she is saying that she will enact Medicare For All not at the start of her presidency, when the Democrats are likely to be at their strongest in the House and Senate, but two years later when Democrats are in a weaker position in the House and Senate. This signals clearly that Warren doesn’t care about Medicare For All.

  21. citizen @ #2293 Saturday, November 23rd, 2019 – 1:41 pm

    lizzie says:
    Saturday, November 23, 2019 at 11:23 am
    Hugh Riminton @hughriminton
    · 3h

    Scott Morrison’s new $3.8b infrastructure spend will benefit 59 electorates. 43 are Coalition seats, reports ⁦@australian⁩. https://theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/roads-cash-splash-a-win-for-coalition-seats/news-story/c31e48af95bf5967e0234783deb3851c

    For example, a new train station in Hastie’s electorate instead of a more needed new station in a Labor electorate.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-22/lakelands-train-station-funded-while-karnup-on-the-backburner/11726754

    I expect Labor will have a lot to say about this in the coming days.
    No I don’t.
    Why say it then?
    Oh, I dunno, I can dream.

  22. EXPOSED: Paper trail between Pompeo, Giuliani and Trump revealed in State Department documents

    The U.S. State Department has released thousands of pages of documents from a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requested by American Oversight. They are documents that Congress has demanded but the State Department refused to hand over, so American Oversight sued under the FOIA laws and was able to obtain the documents.

    American Oversight @weareoversight

    It’s clear why Mike Pompeo has refused to release this information to Congress.

    It reveals a clear paper trail from Rudy Giuliani to the Oval Office to Secretary Pompeo to facilitate Giuliani’s smear campaign against a U.S. ambassador.

    “If you look at these documents you can understand why Mike Pompeo wouldn’t want Congress to have them and why Congress has been complaining for the last two weeks that they haven’t received, [These] are basically his call sheets showing multiple phone conversations with Rudy Giuliani at what looks to be the beginning of this scheme to smear the ambassador.

    We have other lawsuits already pending and soon more to come that are going to focus on different aspects of this scandal …..these are just the first disclosures, and for our first round to connect this scandal directly to the oval office is pretty significant.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/11/exposed-paper-trail-between-pompeo-giuliani-and-trump-revealed-in-state-department-documents/

  23. Defecting Chinese spy who revealed espionage in Australia has ‘legitimate claim for asylum’, Labor says

    Wang ‘William’ Liqiang reportedly gave statement to Asio detailing Chinese operations in Australia

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/23/defecting-chinese-spy-who-revealed-espionage-in-australia-has-legitimate-claim-for-asylum-labor-says

    The spy, Wang “William” Liqiang, is the first Chinese intelligence operative to blow his cover. He has reportedly offered a trove of inside information, including on intelligence operations within Australia.

    Albanese said the reports were “of real concern” and that he would seek a briefing from security agencies.

    “We need to make sure that Australia’s national sovereignty is protected,” he told reporters. “We will await processes with the government and one of the things that we will be seeking next week is a briefing from the appropriate authorities on these issues.”

  24. phoenixRED,
    Trump the propagandist is now going full bore with his latest conspiracy theory against the Democrats:

    Washington: An FBI lawyer is suspected of altering a document related to surveillance of former Trump campaign adviser Carter Page, a person familiar with the situation said.

    US President Donald Trump, who has long attacked as a “hoax” and a “witch hunt” the FBI’s investigation into ties between Russia and his 2016 presidential campaign, immediately touted news reports about the accusation to allege that the FBI had tried to “overthrow the presidency.”

    …The allegation against the lawyer was first reported by CNN. The Washington Post subsequently reported that the conduct of the FBI employee didn’t alter Horowitz’s finding that the surveillance application of Page had a proper legal and factual basis, an official told the Post, which said the lawyer was forced out.

    “This was spying on my campaign – something that has never been done in the history of our country,” Trump told Fox & Friends on Friday, US time. “They tried to overthrow the presidency.”

    …The New York Times and the Post have reported that the investigation is expected to find mistakes by lower-level officials within the FBI but will not accuse senior leaders of being motivated by political bias.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/fbi-lawyer-suspected-of-altering-russia-probe-document-20191123-p53det.html

  25. While you would be foolish to trust the polls too much these days, it does seem most likely that Jeremy Corbyn will lose the UK election. Given that his opponent is Boris “Buffoon” Johnson, this seems a little hard to believe, but this article may help explain why …

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/22/jeremy-corbyn-labour-neutral-second-brexit-vote

    UK Labour seems not to have learned the lesson from AUS Labor’s election fiasco … i.e. that you don’t win elections by attempting to walk both sides of the street. Sometimes, it is better to pick a side … any side. At least it demonstrates you believe in something 🙁

  26. Re Frydenberg the article in the Guardian is detailed and seems to conclusively show Frydenberg is in the clear regarding citizenship. Extensive searches were carried out and did not show his mother held Hungarian citizenship.

    Surely PB’ers are happy to accept information published in the Guardian?

  27. C@tmomma says: Saturday, November 23, 2019 at 3:37 pm

    phoenixRED,

    Victoria says: Saturday, November 23, 2019 at 3:37 pm

    PhoenixRed

    *********************************************************

    Drip, Drip, Drip ……… another day, another scandal exposed …..

    As American Oversight say – more to come – …..these are just the first disclosures, and for our first round to connect this scandal directly to the oval office is pretty significant.”

  28. PhoenixRed

    Still every chance mango Mussolini will resign before impeachment vote. But of course, it isn’t just about him, but all the presidents men and beyond.

  29. Oh dear. Easy to be paranoid, but if Albo says the Chinese man may have a case for asylum, am I worried that Dutton’s immediate reaction will be to say no?

  30. Victoria says: Saturday, November 23, 2019 at 3:57 pm

    PhoenixRed

    Still every chance mango Mussolini will resign before impeachment vote. But of course, it isn’t just about him, but all the presidents men and beyond.

    ***************************************************

    I am having a laugh at Trumps weekend schedule and twitter responses on Rick Wilsons

    Still don’t know how he does it. Grueling schedule

    He’s going to end up at Walter Reed if he keeps up this insane schedule

    Busy weekend bribing senators and eating Big Macs.

    SOTUS – Slacker of the United States

    Five weeks and no golf?? Something is really wrong with his health

    etc

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