UK election minus four weeks and Spanish election results

73 comments on “UK election minus four weeks and Spanish election results”

1. I submitted this article yesterday; it was posted later than usual.

   I don’t think Farage’s decision not to stand in Tory held seats makes much difference. The bottom line is that the Tory/Brexit vote needs to fall into at least the low 40’s for a realistic chance of depriving the Tories of a majority.

2. Big A from prev thread…

   Johnsons brexit deal is going to turn out very hard. Its a poor deal. If you want to soften or abandon then stopping a Tory maj is paramount. If you dont, then it would have been easy to have passed it without blood on hands back at the programme motion vote.

   Its all v well to want to go for a majority (and optics demand it) but if you know that is empirically impossible then you want as much influence as possible and to keep your job.

   Labour looking at 50 seat losses to the Tories. 80 of the Lib Dems 100 top target seats are Tory seats. Any seat where the Tories are polling in the 30s is winnable, particularly remain seats in that category.

   As it stands, LD might pick up 10 seats and Lab lose ~35, ie from where they started a disaster for both parties and a triumph for Johnson and the SNP to a lesser extent (that will mean nothing for Scotland if a Tory maj).

   Awful strategy to compete. Yes people should vote Labour acc to your thesis but they simply aren’t. So plan b is to take a massive loss? Textbook retarded.

3. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/12/lib-dem-candidate-stands-aside-to-avoid-nightmare-of-tory-win?CMP=share_btn_wa

   Here we go!!! Finally some evidence of intelligence. May it snowball from here.

   Only way to stop a tory majority, only thing that matters

4. EF: “Awful strategy to compete. Yes people should vote Labour acc to your thesis but they simply aren’t. So plan b is to take a massive loss? Textbook retarded.”

   If remainer’s main priority in this election was to stop brexit, then they would all vote lib-dem. But they simply aren’t – remainers are according to most recent polls over 50% of the voting population, yet lib-dems are polling under 20% and falling. And not even all of them would be thinking primarily about stopping brexit.

   The reality is, labour is simply a more popular party than the Lib-Dems, and for very good reasons. The lib-dems are a tory-lite, centrist party mainly for the elites. Labour appeals to a far more broader base, which includes people who oppose brexit- but don’t consider that issue alone the be all and end all for this election.

   The point is, labour provides the only viable avenue for leavers: they have an existing broad base in spite of brexit, and a labour government – either minority or majority – is the only practical chance remainers have of revoking brexit. Remainers should jump on board. And they should stop pretending that they can maintain this silly double act of championing remain while at the same time bashing the one party that can deliver remain for them.

5. This has the stink of dark back room deals by Tribble Haired Trump Junior and Farage.

   https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-12/nigel-farage-brexit-party-will-not-stand-in-tory-seats/11695236?section=business

6. Labour supporters on Twitter still hanging on to the hope that Boris will campaign as awfully as May and therefore ensure a Labour win. Geniuses.

7. Remainers should do what the French socialists did in 2002 – hold their nose and vote for a ‘bad guy’ (Corbyn), in the interests of stopping an even worse bad (brexit). Or at the very least they should stop this silly game of trying to convince people *NOT* to vote for him. They should be upfront and honest and just come out and say ‘yeah we all hate Corbyn, he’s a commie and dastardly anti-semite blah blah blah – but you know what, if you really want to stop brexit, you need to vote for him’. Or if they really feel that Corbyn is just too awful a prospect to be PM, then be honest and just come out and say that they think that, actually, brexit isn’t as bad as Corbyn – so vote for brexit.

   Kudos to that Canterbury candidate for standing aside. Still, this was a unilateral decision by the candidate, and no doubt the Lib-dem hieararchy are raving mad at him. Even just this week Lib-Dems have been crowing on twitter about how they were going to take the seat.

8. “Labour supporters on Twitter still hanging on to the hope that Boris will campaign as awfully as May and therefore ensure a Labour win. Geniuses.”

   I looked at the polling during the 2017 campaign, and while there was a dramatic surge for labour, by the end polls were on average still underestimating the labour vote by around 5 points. Its likely that labour’s vote is again being underestimated. Especially given labour are campaigning so hard towards the student vote, many of whom would only be registering to vote at the last minute. Are polls picking up this demographic?

   I’m sensing there may be a ‘quiet-Corbynist’ demographic out there. Whereby Corbyn is getting such bad press, and such incessent attacks from both the right and centre-left, that many Corbyn supporters may feel embarassed to declare their intention to vote for Corbyn to pollsters. Its possible there is also a demographic of centrists and centre-left who hate Corbyn and swear openly now that they won’t vote for him, but deep down know that in a choice between Boris+hard brexit and Corbyn, he is really their only choice. No hard evidence of course, just a theory of mine.

9. The only silver lining to the UK election is that it will mean the end of Corbyn, and Labour can replace him with someone who’s actually electable.

10. Ah yes, electable, that would be in the mould of such previous electoral superstars as Ed Milliband and Gordon Brown – right?

    Corbyn got 41% of the vote last election, after languishing in the mid 20s in polls only weeks before. That compares to 30% for Milliband in 2015 and 29% for Gordon Brown in 2010. Before the brexit impasse became the headline issue in UK politics (yes there really was a time), Corbyn was smashing the Tories in the polls. Even for a long time after that he still maintained an election winning lead over May. Its only since Boris took over and hoovered up most of the hard brexit vote have the tories surged ahead. But you are living in lala land if you think any other labour leader would have done any better under the circumstances. Labour was always going to be between a rock and a hard place under this current brexit fiasco, and nothing they could have done – including adopting an emphatic pro-remain stance – would have made things any better for them.

11. Corbyn got over 12 million votes in 2017. Labour has never got more votes than this since Blair’s landslide in 1997. Not even close really. Blair won 2 consecutive elections with less votes than Corbyn got in 2017. Corbyn would have been elected PM if the election had been held just about any time between the beginning of 2018 and August this year. During the 2017 election, against the most hostile press in the history of British politics, in addition to members of his own party openly undermining him, Corbyn single-handedly lifted Labour’s vote from the mid 20s to over 40% in the space of one month, causing the tories to lose their majority.

    Corbyn may be many things, but unelectable he is most certainly not.

12. In the first poll taken since Farage’s Brexit party withdrew from all Tory held seats, the Tories have a 14 pt lead. This YouGov poll factors in the candidate situation. Note that the Tory/Brexit combined vote fell from 49% to 46%. Reckon 4% of the 6% Brexit drop caused by withdrawal, and 2% by natural squeezing.

    Britain Elects @britainelects
    ·
    7h
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+3)
    LAB: 28% (+2)
    LDEM: 15% (-2)
    BREX: 4% (-6)
    GRN: 4% (-)

    via @YouGov, 11 – 12 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 08 Nov.

13. Three better polls for Labour, though they’re from more Labour-friendly pollsters. These were taken before the Brexit party decision. Tory/Brexit combined vote at 45-47% in these three polls.

    Britain Elects @britainelects
    ·
    2h
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 37% (+1)
    LAB: 29% (-)
    LDEM: 17% (-)
    BREX: 9% (-2)
    GRN: 3% (-)

    via @ComRes, 08 – 10 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 05 Nov

    Britain Elects @britainelects
    ·
    10h
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 35% (+1)
    LAB: 29% (+3)
    LDEM: 17% (-2)
    BREX: 10% (-2)
    GRN: 1% (-)

    via @Survation, 06 – 08 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 30 Oct

    Britain Elects @britainelects
    ·
    12 Nov
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 39% (+1)
    LAB: 31% (-)
    LDEM: 15% (-)
    BREX: 8% (-1)

    via @ICMResearch, 08 – 11 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 02 Nov

14. Chameleon-like self-labelled “centrists” (usually progressive + right in reality) would prefer to cut off their nose to spite their face. Their pragmatism is a charade. It’s propaganda they use to sell their position to the naive. They can tolerate conservatives (who they see as merely holding back the tide), but hold an ideological hatred of the left (who propose a different social order).

15. “Corbyn may be many things, but unelectable he is most certainly not.”

    This hypothesis will be tested on Dec 12.

16. Whenever foreign politics comes up here, it’s always interesting who people support. I find that the support will typically be for ideologically similar people across multiple countries. That’s a somewhat interesting coincidence when it comes from self-proclaimed pragmatists.

17. Us pragmatists/centrists will settle for 50% of something as opposed to 100% of nothing.

    When the revolution comes, we’ll be the first against the wall. But I’m not holding my breath.

18. Billary still looks like she is going to have another crack.

19. quite a few BP supporters hopping mad on twitter swearing they will boycott the election due to Farage’s “betrayal”. Includes one BP MEP.

20. “Us pragmatists/centrists will settle for 50% of something as opposed to 100% of nothing.”

    Its therefore strange that you oppose Corbyn. Well, I’m directing more towards the so called ‘centrist’ cabal of the lib-dems and others – who rather paradoxically are so absolutist when it comes to brexit. Corbyn is actually the ultimate pragmatist and centrist when it comes to brexit – he wants a better deal and then let the people decide whether or not to accept it. Ironic indeed that its the self-proclaimed ‘centrists’ who are demanding that he adopt the uncompromising, absolutist remainer position.

21. AB: ” These were taken before the Brexit party decision. Tory/Brexit combined vote at 45-47% in these three polls.”

    Which presumably wouldn’t change that proportion given that those who abandon BP as a result of the decision will just end up with the Tories?

    Still, 45-47% is getting close to that low 40s threshold that you suggested would be the point at which the Tories might lose government – so thats encouraging. I’m hopeful that as the election gets closer (and winter gets deeper), more and more former labour leavers will gravitate back to labour as Corbyn’s bread and butter campaigning on things like the NHS and housing will start to cut through in working class areas.

22. Kakuru is a centrist. That means his instinct is to surrender to conservatives. He hates people who have consistently advocated left-wing economic policies that would bring structural and systemic changes. People like Corbyn perplex him – Corbyn is not conservative and he does not surrender to conservatives – what’s up with that? Completely outside the limited imagination of a centrist.

23. In my experience self described ‘centrists’ are never from the centre, but rather well to the right of centre.

24. Pragmatism is, of course, usually just a label to sell a particular solution and dismiss others’ solutions. I mean, who labels a solution “pragmatic” and the others “extreme”? The person pushing the “pragmatic” solution, naturally. It’s an advertising gimmick.

    Fact is most self-labelled “centrists” aren’t proposing middle-of-the-road solutions (when they’re viable) but their own third solution, where their strategy to sell it is to convince others that it is a “pragmatic” mixture of other solutions, and the only way to get things done.

    Then there are cases where there a middle solution that works doesn’t actually exist. If there are two separate targets you can hit, is it “pragmatic” to aim between them and hit nothing? Someone who refuses to aim at one or the other isn’t a pragmatist, they’re ideologically (or possibly just stupidly) wedded to adding and dividing by 2.

    Similarly, if you look at a few mechanisms implemented over the last two decades (MRRT, PRRT, carry over credits from Kyoto, taking land clearing off the account for our emissions, etc), you’ll find that while maybe there were sensible compromises to be made, for some reason the compromises that were chosen worked to gut their outcomes, or gave opponents (then or later) a fig leaf to hide behind.

    I’m all for win-win, or even 50-50 solutions, where they exist and produce reasonable outcomes (that’s pragmatic). What I’m not for is non-existent middle solutions (that’s not pragmatic, just deluded), or third way chameleons dressed up as middle solutions coupled with dishonest portrayals of the problem and other proposed solutions at hand (that’s not pragmatic, just dishonest).

25. I’m sure there are people who are genuinely in the political centre. However, self-labelled “centrists”, whose use for being seen to be in the centre is the propaganda value, typically get there by squashing a multi-dimensional political argument down to one dimension, a process by which you can make anyone end up in the centre, and anyone appear extreme.

26. The adding of Leavers or Remainer votes in the polls is meaningless due to the FPP system. All that matters is the largest vote. BXP vote has been cratering since Boris became PM and nothing has changed that. The Conservative vote is on the up and is holding a 10% +/- 2% lead over Labour which looks like turning into approx 80 seat majority. BXP might pick up one or two Labour seats in the North but I doubt it. Lib Dems will pick up a few from the Conservatives and maybe Labour.

    I expect Labour to be reduced significantly but anyone claiming it is the death of them should take note of what happened in Queensland.

    Wales will be very interesting if irrelevant.

    Possible clean sweep of Scotland by the SNP coming up. Once again irrelevant.

    NFI what will happen in NI. They should probably focus on getting their own house in order before anything else.

27. There is also a difference between arguing for a compromise and being willing to compromise. Should the starting point really be that compromise is the solution?

    I’ve recently heard some politicians come out and state that the centre is the place to be. That’s political talk, for a conversation between politicians or maybe people who study politicians (poor things), not for a conversation with the public. The centre might well be the place where things end up, but starting off there is putting the cart before the horse.

28. Displayname
    “There is also a difference between arguing for a compromise and being willing to compromise. Should the starting point really be that compromise is the solution? ”

    No, compromise doesn’t have to be the starting point. But by the same token, your end point shouldn’t always be the same as your starting point. In politics, perfect is the enemy of good.

29. Few voters have strongly held beliefs about specific policies. The claim that there is a “sensible centre” in the populace is false. Electoral majorities can be persuaded to support, or at least go along with, a wide range of policy specifics. But they cannot support or go along with policy options that they never hear about, or that they only hear about in disparaging terms, because centrist politicians and media pundits are policing the conversation. We never really know in advance which policies are acceptable or unacceptable to the public. Even after an election in which a particular platform ostensibly lost, often it is not as simple as that – the election may have hinged on factors other than policy, or the policies may not have had the best advocates on that occasion. Therefore the best approach is to make a case on the merits instead of watering things down on the basis of a priori beliefs about public opinion.

30. Hilary in 2016 got more votes than Obama in 2008 but 130 fewer electoral colleges; Corbyn 2017 more votes than Blair in 1997 but ar least 100 seats fewer. More votes means nothing – population growth aside, its where you win them.

    Across Scotland, NI, Wales and the south of England the Tories will lose seats but not many to Labor. Tories need to win a swathe of seats in the north and midlands which are all held by Labor.

    Labor has two swings against it in a brexit dominated election – from remainers to the LibDems and from leavers to the Tories. Uniformly across all seats this will kill them (-100) but it isnt like that.

    There are a bunch of seats in the south where the Tories can lose to the LibDems but not to Labor, all Lab can be is a spoiler allowing Tories to retain. It costs them nothing to stand aside or run dead in such seats. Just minimises the Tory-LibDem swing needed.

    Where Lab are really up against it is where they are leaking votes two ways but never enough to the Lib Dem base for them to take the seat, but enough to make it much easier for the Tories to overtake them. It costs the LibDems nothing to run dead here.

    Run dead, lose nothing in seats you cant win order to significantly benefit in seats you can. Win-win for both parties. Dont even talk about it, just quietly do it… I can only hope thats what is really going on.

    Corbyn cannot win a majority because Labor lost 30+ seats in scotland to the snp that they are not winning back (no other leader could either, i agree that much)

    Its all about maximum opposition seats in the Commons. This group can control what if any brexit and also bring preferential voting in so that such run-dead arrangements are never required again.

    Only Boris can win a majority. Running pure and everywhere on all sides is the strategy the Tories are banking on. To play right into their hands is idiotic.

    This is too important an election with permanent implications to f### around with. Campaign hard where you need to and devote no resources where you dont.

    Hilary would surely have given up 3-4 million votes in NY and Cali for 100,000 extra votes in michigan, pennsylvania and Wisconsin. She’d be prez now.

    Play it smart. Stakes are too high. This is Corbyns last chance to make a play for pm, this is the only way (ie minority supported on at least some big issues he can win on)

31. Expat Follower

    “Across Scotland, NI, Wales and the south of England the Tories will lose seats but not many to Labor. Tories need to win a swathe of seats in the north and midlands which are all held by Labor.
    ————
    I doubt Labor will win any seats in the UK.

    For two reasons: it has to stand in seats and i doubt it can; and

    it is pretty bad at winning seats in Australia so why would it win seats in the UK against Labour, Tories, Lib Dems and SNP?

    It may do better in the US as a US Democrat where being a neo-liberal is quite compatible with being “left wing” and it’s already got the right spelling . lol lol lol

32. It i highly informative that the BBC, creaming about L300 million a year from Scotland through livence fees, will only broadcaste in Scxotland debates from two London based leaders (Tory/Labour) and the leader of the major Scottish party is excluded.

    The BBC is quite unappologetically a politicised State Broadcaster NOT a Public Broadcaster.

33. Farage deciding not to run candidates in Tory seats has outraged many of his candidates. I saw one claiming that Farage now owed him £10k. I think some of these might run as “Brexit Independents” and, if they have the organisation, might attract quite a few votes. As they would be outside of Farage’s control it could be interesting.

    https://scramnews.com/dumped-brexit-party-general-election-candidates-revolt-against-nigel-farage/

    Warning: scramnews does not sound like an authoratative site, but it must have more cred than the Daily Mail or Express.

34. I quite like this.

    Is batman the bad guy?

    https://youtu.be/C5-8HIWscfY

35. EF: “Across Scotland, NI, Wales and the south of England the Tories will lose seats but not many to Labor. Tories need to win a swathe of seats in the north and midlands which are all held by Labor.”

    A few thoughts:

    1. Labour doesn’t need to win a majority to form government, they don’t even need to gain seats, in fact they can afford to lose seats and still form government.

    2. Johnson is finished politically if he does anything but gain seats. With the DUP betrayed, he has virtually no chance of forming a minority government. This point becomes all the more stark when considering that the Tories are already expected to lose dozens of remain seats to SNP and Lib-Dems even before they manage to gain any.

    3. It is not beyond the realm of possibility for Labour to gain seats, namely a few very marginal seats in Scotland and a smattering of Tori remain seats – but I agree a labour majority seems well out of reach

    4. The Tory election strategy pretty much depends entirely on winning Labour leave seats in the midlands. Labour would have to be optimistic of holding these seats based on such factors as a) these are working class/industrial constituents who have endured 10 years of tory cuts and austerity – facing an election in which labour are directly appealing to working class bread and butter issues b) the fact that this is a winter/christmas election which must surely accentuate this factor (Boris stole my christmas?) c) a timely flood in that very area in which Boris seems to have been totally caught off guard and turned up a week late – in stark contrast to Corbyn’s siezing of the issue.

36. The good news for Labour in ComRes is that their vote share is headed by a “3”. The bad news is that the Tories gained more, for a 10-pt lead. It doesn’t look as if ComRes fully excluded Brexit from Tory-held seats. Tories plus Brexit at 47%. There’s also a Kantar poll from before the BP decision with a 10-pt Tory lead.

    Britain Elects @britainelects
    ·
    1h
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (+3)
    LAB: 30% (+1)
    LDEM: 16% (-1)
    BREX: 7% (-2)
    GRN: 3% (-)

    via @ComRes, 11 – 12 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 10 Nov

    Britain Elects @britainelects
    ·
    10h
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 37% (-2)
    LAB: 27% (+2)
    LDEM: 17% (-1)
    BREX: 9% (+1)

    via @KantarTNS, 07 – 11 Nov
    Chgs. w/ 15 Oct

37. In ComRes, we have Lib Dems plus Greens at 19%. Labour probably needs to restrict both parties to about a combined 10%.

38. looks like the BP slump hasn’t quite bottomed out yet – nor has the Lib-Dem’s for that matter. Until it does, expect the Tories polling to continue rising I suppose.

    I’d be interested to see some analysis done on where those voters fleeing BP are going to, including how many intend to vote at all (there was some twitter venting this week from BP voters saying they won’t be voting).

39. AB: “In ComRes, we have Lib Dems plus Greens at 19%. Labour probably needs to restrict both parties to about a combined 10%.”

    On the other hand, if the Lib Dems fall too much, they lose the chance of taking those Tory remain seats they are targeting in the south? Or do you think labour would then have a chance of picking those up instead? Is it a safe bet that voters leaving the Lib-Dems now are turning to labour?

40. The Spanish left-wing parties, the Socialists and Podemos, have agreed to form a govt. It will only have 155 of the 350 seats, so will be reliant on regionalists not messing it up.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/12/world/europe/spain-government-sanchez-podemos.html

41. Big A, there are far more Lab/Tory contests than LD/Tory contests. If the LD vote crashes, and that goes to Labour, Labour will be far more competitive in those contests.

    Also, I’m not sure seats the LDs win should be counted as part of the anti-Tory alliance given Jo Swinson’s anti-Corbyn rhetoric. They seem more of a Stop Corbyn party than a Stop Brexit party.

    Most LD supporters are strong Remainers who objected to Labour’s fence-sitting on Brexit, so I think they’ll back Labour over the Tories when push comes to shove.

42. I believe that a lot of BXP voters will come to their senses and realise that there is no point voting BXP and will vote Conservative in order to make sure a Brexit occurs. 60-80 seat Conservative majority at this stage – could go a lot bigger.

43. There’s much more vote at this stage with the Lib Dems and Greens than the BXP. If those “come to their senses” and realise they have to vote Labour to prevent a hard Brexit, Labour’s vote share will increase a lot.

44. Whether LibDems support Labour (happy Swamprat?) is not the issue, its whether there is a majority of seats to block Boris’ brexit plan that matters.

    Big A we broadly agree but its a bit of a zero sum game. Labour isnt going to lose much to anyone but Tories, so if they lose too many it means Tories v likely achieve a majority… unless at the same time these gains are offset by a bunch of Tory losses to LD /SNP.

    It might really help if Sinn Fein sat this one out and allowed 7 remainer mps to sit in the commons. Not happening.

    I dont see any Lab pickups in Scotland, if anything the few seats they hold there might go to the snp.

    If Corbyn can hang on to most in the north + midlands then hung parliament most likely.

    Frankly even a Tory minority govt will be ok in that this deal won’t pass. I can see the LibDems supporting Tories in an initial confidence vote but never on Brexit. Thats fine. Boris shd be a dead man.

    Its that small Tory majority result (that could easily have been prevented by some LibLab coopetition) that i dread. Soooo stupid.

45. Labour will be in opposition for 10 years after a 100 seat crushing defeat and lose 50 seats just in the working class brexit supporting north.

46. 10 years? That’s only two terms in the UK.
    The non-Right will never learn, unded first past the post they will not be able to form government in the lifetime of most people who are alive today.
    Glory be to God for Brexit! For Trump!
    Brexiteers step forward! Foreigners step out!

47. As in many a UK election, it could all come down to tactical voting.

    If Brexit is “the issue” (and that is questionable), then Remainers will support whoever out of the LibDems, PC, or SNP have a good chance of winning, but failing any having a realistic chance they will probably vote for Labour (or a “remainer Tory” should tbey have one).

    Similarly, Leavers will probably go Tory.

    Is the decision a clear one between Remainers and Leavers? Actually, I doubt it. There are still many shades of grey inbetween (e.g. soft Brixiteers who oppose a hard Brexit and would rather vote to remain, and Remainers who want a second referendum rather than the LD’s simple and undemocratic “stop Brexit”.

    As other matters will also no doubt come into play, it will no doubt be less clearcut than this.

    Tactical voting will be important – but which tactic for which objective?

48. Labour’s likely wipeout in the Midlands and North is the consequence of a decade or more being ignored by Labour as it has increasingly lurched to the trendy and intellectual left.

    There has been no effort by either Ed, Jezza or the folk and Unite and Momentum to focus on the very ‘not socialist’ every day concerns of these folk.

    Brexit has dulled that void.

    This is all a consequence of a failure to grasp that ‘the left’ doesn’t win election majorities in the Anglosphere. Only a platform pitched at ‘left, centre-left and centre’ has a chance.

    It’s a basic political lesson, but one that has been forgotten by progressive political forces in most of the Anglosphere.

    Canada and NZ are possible exceptions. Probably because the absence of the cancer that is Rupert Murdoch.

49. AE, Corbyn pretty much has done nothing BUT “focus on the very ‘not socialist’ every day concerns of these folk.” – hospitals, A&E under-resourcing, schools, public transport, cuts to emergency services…. etc etc

    have you been living under a rock?

50. the Tories will drop seats to snp, and ld……… the seats they hope to win from Labour have a pro labor bias is the vote for Brexit enough to change the inherent lean of the seats so they vote for the conservatives in place of Labor? also how much tactical voting will there be….. ? The conservatives need to govern in their own right with an absolute majority if they are in a minority they will not be able to find a playmate for coalition. I suspect another hung parliament.