Newspoll: 50-50

The Coalition’s lead disappears altogether in the latest Newspoll, which also records a resounding bounce in Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings.

Newspoll has turned in a result for its three-weekly federal poll which, if nothing else, shows it’s not letting the May election result prevent it from publishing optimistic-looking numbers for Labor. As related in The Australian ($), the latest poll has the major parties tied on two-party preferred, after four successive results of 51-49 in favour of the Coalition.

The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 40%, with Labor up two to 35%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation up one to 7%. Anthony Albanese enjoys some encouraging movement on personal ratings, with approval up five to 42% and disapproval down seven to 37%. However, Scott Morrison’s ratings are little changed, with approval down one to 46% and disapproval down two to 43%, and his lead as preferred prime minister narrows only marginally, from 47-32 to 46-32.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1682.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,370 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. The Project is currently running a segment “An uninsurable future?” looking at the increasing number and intensity of natural disasters due to climate change.

    As another poster said, the business of insurance will trump RW ideology.

  2. Joanne Murphy @ #2186 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 5:50 pm

    Mexicanbeemer at 4.56pm: “Recently a Liberal member I work with told me that practically everyone in his branch saw climate change as a hoax.”

    That is very depressing. Are you able to shed more light on the demographics of that branch and how they’ve reached that conclusion? I’d like to think they were an isolated cabal rather than representative of the ordinary punters out there … Also do they give any thought to WHAT IF THEY ARE WRONG? ‘Cause if it’s a hoax, then one of the worst consequences is we hit peak fossil fuels much later and have them readily available for several more centuries. Scary huh. But if they are wrong, then thanks for wrecking us all on account of your dumb opinions folks.

    Arggghhhhhh seriously what is it with people???!!!!

    I question the intellectual capacity of ‘average voter’ too. A young lady I mentored through her science degree told me after the Federal election that she voted LNP because they had the best policies about climate change and she supports any party that will do anything about climate change. I’ve been sending her clips from various newspapers about LNP non-policy and climate change – you know – articles which have links to other authoritative documents. I got an email last night telling me that I needed to look at less biased reports and seek my news from better sources, such as channel 9 and sky news. No, she wasn’t joking. These days she spends a lot of time in the clubs and all she hears is sky news. Ditto my brother-in-law – every night at the pub socialising – all they hear is sky news.

  3. Taz your mentee obviously needs some training in information literacy and how to assess sources. I am sure the relevant library could provide some resources to put in front of her.
    I guess getting her to read and digest is the real issue

  4. Taz

    You must get her to explain what the ‘really good bits’ of the Coalition’s policy are. It would make for some fascinating listening .

  5. Ok! Posting the Adani questions again for the last time:

    1. Do you believe that opening the Adani mine will have no impact on coal supply and demand?
    2a. Do you support the approval of the Adani coal mine?
    2b. Do you support the approval of any other coal mines in the Galilee basin?

    Please, if you include explanations, still also just also say “Yes or No”. I sometimes have to read the replies many times to figure out which one you mean (and yes, I now realize I should have phrased the first question better, but your answer should be “No” if you believe Adani will impact EITHER on supply OR demand, or “Yes” if you think it will have no impact on either one).

    I have recorded responses from: Andrew_Earlwood, Jackol, RI (Briefly), frednk, Player One, Jolyon Wagg, a r, Mexicanbeemer, adrian, Don Key, lizzie, Steve777, Pegasus, Maude Lynne, guytaur, Firefox, Ballantyne

    frednk, I have reread your post and have now recorded you as Y Y N (not N Y N as I originally posted).

  6. Taz

    No point in fussing about corporate donors any more then. Murdoch already has the result of the next election all tied up through his media. Whatever the IPA and the RW want will happen.

  7. 730 showing quiet australians. These all seem like ordinary and average aussies who didn’t like Littlefinger.

    The obvious solution is not less Littlefinger but more Littlefinger.

  8. Bishop attacking Morrison from outside the tent?

    ‘Frustrated and angry’: Julie Bishop fears a ‘backlash against globalisation’

    The former foreign minister defends the “rules-based world order” and says Liberals believe “in choice and freedom”.

    (Nine/Fairfax headline)

  9. Quiet Australians is the term the Coalition is using in place of ‘the silent majority’ – which they dumped when the silent majority overwhelmingly voted for same sex marriage.

  10. guytaur @ #2200 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 5:23 pm

    JM

    See US polling. There are a lot of voters that think differently to you.

    First, we are not the US. Different factors in play here. The US might superficially look like Oz (or vice-versa), but in many ways it is a very different place culturally and politically (including the media environment).

    Though Scotty & Co are doing everything they can to reduce that difference. As did Howard. With some success.

    Second, few things would please me more than the US getting on board with effective action on climate change, because then we here in Oz, and most everywhere else, will do likewise.

    The US has always been the barrier to effective action. Until and unless they shift, there will be no effective action globally.

    Pretty sure that is not Labor’s fault.

    There are socialist Trump voters or Trump voters willing to vote for socialists. That includes knowing about the “Squad” and AOC’s Green New Deal.

    Let’s wait until they have actually voted in Nov 2020, shall we.

    People say all sorts of things outside the ballot box.

    It’s being seen as weak that’s the killer. Trump conned that he was strong. That got him votes.

    The reasons Trump was elected are more complex than that.

    Besides, Clinton did actually win the popular vote by a solid margin. In a fair election she would have won comfortably.

    Also, you still have not addressed why the Greens, with their strong climate change and broader environment policies are not benefiting at the ballot box from this supposed thirst for effective policy in these areas. Not even to the point they are picking up enough seats to at least hold the balance of power in the senate.

    Between that fact, and Labor getting repeatedly kicked in the teeth by the electorate, in no small part over attempts to introduce climate policy, it is crystal clear that the Oz voters are simply not ready for it yet (at least as of May this year).

    It is the voters you need to convince. Neither Labor nor the Greens, individually or collectively, can do diddly squat until the voters come around.

  11. So, the dilettante vigilante Greens want the return of the LNP in Queensland next year, huh? How unsurprising.

    I must say that that poster reminds me of nothing so much as a screaming Murdoch tabloid front page. Sitting at the feet of the master and learning his tricks.

  12. Nath,
    You forgot my guess:

    this also gives me the opportunity to add to list of the real identity of nath as speculated on PB:

    1. A liberal staffer
    2. A greens staffer
    3. Wayne
    3. Menzies Center intern
    4. William Bowe, or a ‘part of William’
    5. Michael Kroger
    6. Marcus Baastian
    7. Chris Kenny
    8. Shorten himself.

    A Senior Lecturer gathering data for an ARC DP2021, with the title “Splitting the Left: The role of erudite left-of-centre blogs in Australia in keeping th left arguing with itself”.

  13. “Quiet Australians is the term the Coalition is using in place of ‘the silent majority’ – which they dumped when the silent majority overwhelmingly voted for same sex marriage.”

    But whatever you call them, they’re still a very noisy minority.

  14. Campaigning like that C@t makes Adani inevitable because Labor in Queensland faces annihilation on its right flank it is opposes or even uses the economics of the project and environmental approvals levee to quietly drown the project before birth.

    The LNP know this as well, so a keen to amplify the differences with labor to drive the wedge home. These tactics are counter productive of the anti-coal cause , but it does provide the opportunity for the Greens to eat out some of Labor’s left flank.

    The Greens are always happy to sacrifice environmental protections to further their own political interest. This is all about padding Larissa’s arse on the red senate leather And doing in Jackie Trad in West End. Nothing else.

  15. Thanks for the reply people. If someone could come up with a system that capture’s the CO2 from smelting iron, farnarkle it about a bit and reintroduce it into the process as the carbon component of steel wouldn’t everyone and more importantly the planet win? I have no idea if it’s possible as it’s way above my year 9 level of chemistry. Anyhoo thanks again for the replies.

  16. laughtong @ #2227 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 8:21 pm

    Guardian is reporting that Behrouz Boochani, voice of Manus Island refugees, is free in New Zealand

    Yes, it’s an ongoing amazing story. As I read it, he’s on a one month visa to NZ, has also been accepted into the American refugee swap programme which is taking forever, and has vowed never to return to Manus or PNG.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/14/behrouz-boochani-free-voice-manus-island-refugees-new-zealand-australia

  17. Andrew_Earlwood @ #2226 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 8:17 pm

    Campaigning like that C@t makes Adani inevitable because Labor in Queensland faces annihilation on its right flank it is opposes or even uses the economics of the project and environmental approvals levee to quietly drown the project before birth.

    The LNP know this as well, so a keen to amplify the differences with labor to drive the wedge home. These tactics are counter productive of the anti-coal cause , but it does provide the opportunity for the Greens to eat out some of Labor’s left flank.

    The Greens are always happy to sacrifice environmental protections to further their own political interest. This is all about padding Larissa’s arse on the red senate leather And doing in Jackie Trad in West End. Nothing else.

    Oh, I know. What I also know is that, if they succeed, guess who they will blame for their victory? The Labor Party. It was the norty Labor Party wot lost the seat to The Greens. Not the LNP that have tightened the screws on Labor from the Right and that made a calculation in aid of political survival necessary for the Palacsjuk government.

    It’s so easy to despise both the LNP/Coalition AND The Greens these days. Both politically cynical to an outrageous degree.

  18. laughtong,

    Guardian is reporting that Behrouz Boochani, voice of Manus Island refugees, is free in New Zealand

    That is fantastic news indeed!

  19. Even I can’t work out what “ levee ”
    Refers to in my previous post. Damn autocorrect. I think I meant “processes” but I don’t know how that turned itself into levee.

  20. I have a survey I would like the answer to:

    Q) Have you stopped beating your wife yet?

    A1) Yes

    A2) No.

    Please send me your answers via a post to PB, and I will collate them and let you know the results.

  21. “Firefox,
    Is this a genuine Greens poster? Where is the criticism of the Liberals and Nationals?”

    ***

    Yes, it is an official Greens poster.

    Labor is in government in Queensland.

  22. “Not helpful. In case you missed it, the Coalition is in charge and has been in charge since 2013. They get responsibility for the mine. Tying it to Labor is just…mean. And wrong.”

    ***

    Labor is in government in Queensland.

  23. By happenchance, I had the misfortune today to read one of Murdoch’s rags – to wit, the “Courier-Mail”, in which Andy Bolt gave his “informed” opinion of the Victoria (beware of the adjective) Court of Appeal’s decision of Pell’s appeal, claiming, among other things, that the dissenting judge got it right as he was the only one who has knowledge of criminal law. Not only is his opinion absurd, but it also borders on contempt.

    Pell’s appeal now goes before the High Court, where the five or seven justices will hear the matter, few of whom made their mark in criminal law. The fact is that although it’s an advantage to hear a matter within one’s expertise, does Bolt, his ilk, really contend that those elevated to the highest court in the land can’t chew gum?

    _____________________________________________________________

    Shellbell: please stop referring to those charged with an indictable offence as ‘accused’. One morphs from “defendant” to “accused” upon arraignment – criminal law 101.

    ____________________________________________________________

    They may’ve been previously published, but I thank the moderator for providing commenting guidelines. It seems to me that it’s hard to proscribe the proclivity of some to gang up on certain contributors, particularly women. I’m from the old school – I abhor bullies.

  24. Douglas and Milko @ #2232 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 8:33 pm

    laughtong,

    Guardian is reporting that Behrouz Boochani, voice of Manus Island refugees, is free in New Zealand

    That is fantastic news indeed!

    D&M, the implication is that being in NZ might compromise his US exchange, and that he would then be dependent on asylum granted by NZ, and that is something you’d have to bet Adern would jump at.

    His work is just beginning, and his voice will haunt Morrison and Dutton, and Rudd, who pulled up the drawbridge as he was ‘en-route’.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-01/behrouz-boochani-how-refugee-challenged-system-with-words/10799884

  25. Douglas and Milko
    says:
    A Senior Lecturer gathering data for an ARC DP2021, with the title “Splitting the Left: The role of erudite left-of-centre blogs in Australia in keeping th left arguing with itself”.
    _________________________________________
    It is a collaborative project with A/Profs Pegasus, Rex and LVT.

    Honestly though, I don’t think it would pass the ethics committee. 🙂

  26. Anyone who stopped to think for half a second before jumping in with the usual kneejerk reaction would have realised it referred to the Qld Labor government.

  27. Ok, so since you’ve decided to weight back in to the debate over Adani, Cat, are you able to finally tell us whether or not you support the mine going ahead?

  28. Mavis @ #2242 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 8:38 pm

    By happenchance, I had the misfortune today to read one of Murdoch’s rags – to wit, the “Courier-Mail”, in which Andy Bolt gave his “informed” opinion of the Victoria (beware of the adjective) Court of Appeal’s decision of Pell’s appeal, claiming, among other things, that the dissenting judge got it right as he was the only one who has knowledge of criminal law. Not only is his opinion absurd, but it also borders on contempt.

    Pell’s appeal now goes before the High Court, where the five or seven justices will hear the matter, few of whom made their mark in criminal law. The fact is that although it’s an advantage to hear a matter within one’s expertise, does Bolt, his ilk, really contend that those elevated to the highest court in the land can’t chew gum?

    _____________________________________________________________

    Shellbell: please stop referring to those charged with an indictable offence as ‘accused’. One morphs from “defendant” to “accused” upon arraignment – criminal law 101.

    ____________________________________________________________

    They may’ve been previously published, but I thank the moderator for providing commenting guidelines. It seems to me that it’s hard to proscribe the proclivity of some to gang up on certain contributors, particularly women. I’m from the old school – I abhor bullies.

    Peggy’s a player beyond PB. She gets all the love she makes.

    Save your sympathy for the non combatants.

  29. Diogenes @ #2244 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 8:43 pm

    That poster could be referring to Qld Labor.

    It no doubt is. Which is why it is especially cynically egregious. Because you know who wants the Gallilee Basin, including the Adani Mine, opened up even more than Labor would in a 100 political lifetimes? The LNP. And they, and Clive Palmer, would love nothing more than The Greens to drive voters their way and away from Labor at the Queensland election next year. Then, if back in government, they could let rip.

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