Newspoll: 50-50

The Coalition’s lead disappears altogether in the latest Newspoll, which also records a resounding bounce in Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings.

Newspoll has turned in a result for its three-weekly federal poll which, if nothing else, shows it’s not letting the May election result prevent it from publishing optimistic-looking numbers for Labor. As related in The Australian ($), the latest poll has the major parties tied on two-party preferred, after four successive results of 51-49 in favour of the Coalition.

The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 40%, with Labor up two to 35%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation up one to 7%. Anthony Albanese enjoys some encouraging movement on personal ratings, with approval up five to 42% and disapproval down seven to 37%. However, Scott Morrison’s ratings are little changed, with approval down one to 46% and disapproval down two to 43%, and his lead as preferred prime minister narrows only marginally, from 47-32 to 46-32.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1682.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,370 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. Pegasus @ #2149 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 4:32 pm

    A Greens motion voted down by both major parties:

    https://twitter.com/larissawaters/status/1194499918502584320

    Liberals & Nats & Labor refused to support @MehreenFaruqi and my motion thanking communities, supporting firies &calling for action because apparently acknowledging the link between our fossil fuel exports & the climate crisis is “politics”. When did science become “politics”?

    Seriously, after yesterdays supportive effort of calling fieries wife bashers you really think anyone has any regard for faux messages of support from the Greens.

  2. Bert

    At a guess I would say that adding carbon to the steel will be as per normal .It does not end up as CO2 whereas removing the oxygen from the iron ore with carbon does.

  3. Guy Ballard
    @DingoResearch
    ·
    20h
    Late this afternoon a huge smoke plume appeared south east of Armidale.

    It’s from a research site where we have spent the best part of a decade studying predators.

    I’m not trying to overshadow the immense personal loss of people losing homes or worse but this is terribly sad.

  4. GG

    Seriously, after yesterdays supportive effort of calling fieries wife bashers you really think anyone has any regard for faux messages of support from the Greens.

    More rational people are capable of seeing this for the egregious slur it is.

    I understand why you are working overtime to propagate lies and misrepresentations about the Greens.

    Have a good day.

  5. Posting the Adani questions again for anyone else who wants to participate:

    1. Do you believe that opening the Adani mine will have no impact on coal supply and demand?
    2a. Do you support the approval of the Adani coal mine?
    2b. Do you support the approval of any other coal mines in the Galilee basin?

    William, if you have a problem with this, by all means delete this and I won’t repost it. Otherwise I will repost once more later today to catch bludgers who log in after work, and then collate and post the responses tomorrow.

  6. Greg Jericho twitter

    The appropriate time for journalists to mention the impact of climate change and to be asking politcians about their policies is *every* *single* *day*

  7. Greensborough Growlersays:
    Thursday, November 14, 2019 at 3:37 pm

    If they are still picking Warner then they definitely should be picking Bancroft (49 against PAK while everyone else capitulated).

  8. Peg
    Recently a Liberal member I work with told me that practically everyone in his branch saw climate change as a hoax.

    Player One
    1. Do you believe that opening the Adani mine will have no impact on coal supply and demand?

    It will impact the supply of coal but I don’t see it making much difference to demand.

    2a. Do you support the approval of the Adani coal mine?

    No, its clear from Adani’s own behavior that they cannot obtain the finance for the project without government subsidies, beyond that this project has relied heavily on government which raises question marks about the project’s sustainability. There is also a question of the need for this supply as existing coal mining regions seem able to meet customer needs and we know technology and costs are favoring the rise of renewable energy.

    2b. Do you support the approval of any other coal mines in the Galilee basin?

    Depends on whether the supply is needed and whether it can fund itself while satisfying environmental requirements. Has Westpac pointed out due to advances in technology and renewables may make the need for this new coal field unnecessary.

  9. Player One @ #2156 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 4:41 pm

    Posting the Adani questions again for anyone else who wants to participate:

    1. Do you believe that opening the Adani mine will have no impact on coal supply and demand?
    2a. Do you support the approval of the Adani coal mine?
    2b. Do you support the approval of any other coal mines in the Galilee basin?

    William, if you have a problem with this, by all means delete this and I won’t repost it. Otherwise I will repost once more later today to catch bludgers who log in after work, and then collate and post the responses tomorrow.

    1. No.
    2a. Fuck no.
    2b. You’ve got to be joking.

  10. Bucephalus @ #2159 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 4:55 pm

    Greensborough Growlersays:
    Thursday, November 14, 2019 at 3:37 pm

    If they are picking Warner then they definitely should be picking Bancroft (49 against PAK while everyone else capitulated).

    I have no problem with either being eligible for selection. However, Bancroft doesn’t have runs or a history of making runs to justify his selection.

  11. a suspected arsonist has reportedly been arrested after an army Black Hawk helicopter chased him through Sydney’s Royal National Park.

    The 6th Aviation Regiment unit was returning to Holsworthy base on Wednesday after helping in the bushfire effort in the Blue Mountains when they saw a man acting suspiciously, The Daily Telegraph reported.

    The crew alerted police and kept the man in sight, finding his hiding place.

    I hope his insides melted with fear.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/nsw/2019/11/14/death-toll-nsw-bushfires/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PM%20Extra%20-%2020191114

  12. Player One

    1. Do you believe that opening the Adani mine will have no impact on coal supply and demand?

    No idea. (Sounds like a red herring.)

    2a. Do you support the approval of the Adani coal mine?

    No.

    2b. Do you support the approval of any other coal mines in the Galilee basin?

    No.

  13. Pegasus @ #2155 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 4:41 pm

    GG

    Seriously, after yesterdays supportive effort of calling fieries wife bashers you really think anyone has any regard for faux messages of support from the Greens.

    More rational people are capable of seeing this for the egregious slur it is.

    I understand why you are working overtime to propagate lies and misrepresentations about the Greens.

    Have a good day.

    Just the facts Peggy. Just the facts!

    Almost didn’t recognise Larissa without her Adani earings.

    https://7news.com.au/politics/domestic-violence-advocate-slammed-for-claiming-bushfire-battling-firefighters-return-home-to-beat-partners-c-555985

  14. What contribution could Downer possibly make?

    @BelindaJones68
    5m
    Oh, FFS!
    @AlexanderDowner is on #thedrum tonight, dammit, I was really looking forward to tonight’s show bcuz @vanbadham’s on!

    On second thoughts, odds are he’ll say something really bloody obnoxious & Van will tear him a new one, now THAT will be worth watching!

  15. P1 @4:41PM.

    I didn’t see the earlier post and responded to what I thought was general discussion on Adani.

    1. Do you believe that opening the Adani mine will have no impact on coal supply and demand?
    It will obviously increase supply, but not necessarily demand.

    2a. Do you support the approval of the Adani coal mine?
    Provided that it meets full planning and environmental requirements including cleaning up the the end of production. Also subject to no Government support, subsidies or tax concessions of any kind.

    2b. Do you support the approval of any other coal mines in the Galilee basin?
    As for Adani. See 2a.

  16. There can only be one reason for the government to change its funding of bushfire mitigation from the present ad hoc to a permanently increased basis: the reality of Climate Change.

    To permanently increase bushfire funding due to Climate Change is to invite inevitable follow-up questions as to why coral is bleaching, why energy policy is stuck at a roadblock made of coal, why emissions are increasing, why we are not co-operating fully and genuinely with international efforts at countering Global Warming, and so on.

    To concede even one square inch of ground on Climate Change, no matter how minor or distant the corner where that ground may be, means defeat.

    Persuasion will never work. The only thing they will understand is commercial force: increased insurance premiums, abandoned (or no) investments, international trade sanctions. Belief, or otherwise, in Climate Change will then be unnecessary. They’ll drown in a sea of red ink if they don’t act.

  17. Re-posted from this morning

    This also happened yesterday: Sherele Moody, who started the petition calling for Pauline Hanson to be removed from the latest family violence inquiry, which was tabled into the Senate by Larissa Waters, said this as part of a press conference:

    “After a cataclysmic event like this, domestic violence peaks,” she said. “Women become extremely unsafe, when generally the men return home from the fires and subject them to domestic violence.”

    Moody made her comments while standing next to Waters, causing the Greens senator to issue this statement later in the afternoon:

    The Greens absolutely do not support the statement made today by Sherele Moody that firefighters are responsible for an increase in domestic violence during times of disaster.

    Ms Moody is not affiliated with the Greens and does not speak for us. Today’s press conference with Senator Waters was held to receive a petition regarding the Family Law Inquiry. Ms Moody chose to make comments regarding matters unrelated to the press conference without our prior knowledge.

  18. I’m so sick of these experts thinking that they know everything:

    Elouise Fowler
    @ElouiseFowler

    A major report published by the British medical journal The Lancet found a baby born today will face higher risks of disease and undernutrition because of climate change

  19. Peg,

    A late reply, but all I can say is bloody good thing too!

    Australia being recognised

    https://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/sweden-dumps-aussie-bonds-as-country-not-known-for-good-climate-work-20191114-p53agw.html

    Sweden’s central bank has sold off bonds from parts of Australia and the oil-rich Canadian province of Alberta because it felt that greenhouse gas emissions in both countries were too high.

    Riksbank Deputy Governor Martin Floden said on Wednesday the bank would no longer invest in assets from issuers with a large climate footprint, even if the yields were high.

    I think that the only thing that will jolt Australian voters out of their topper on climate change is a boycott by countries who are taking action.

  20. There are many places in WA where agricultural firms can no longer insure against fire and storm risk.

    The coal sector is already unbankable. Agriculture cannot be far behind. There are commercial parts of the marine environment that are not merely unbankable. They have vanished.

  21. adrian @ #2174 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 5:20 pm

    I’m so sick of these experts thinking that they know everything:

    Elouise Fowler
    @ElouiseFowler

    A major report published by the British medical journal The Lancet found a baby born today will face higher risks of disease and undernutrition because of climate change

    Scaremongers just got to scare.

    Life expectancy in Australia now 82.5 years.

    Boomers refuse to die.

  22. “To concede even one square inch of ground on Climate Change, no matter how minor or distant the corner where that ground may be, means defeat.”

    So Barnaby putting change down to the suns magnetic field, and that leading to bushfires means the war is won!!! How Good Is the Beetenrooter!! 🙂

  23. “Player One says:
    Thursday, November 14, 2019 at 4:41 pm
    Posting the Adani questions again for anyone else who wants to participate:

    1. Do you believe that opening the Adani mine will have no impact on coal supply and demand?
    2a. Do you support the approval of the Adani coal mine?
    2b. Do you support the approval of any other coal mines in the Galilee basin?”

    Like MB above, I see Adani’s coal increasing the supply, which will drop the value and hence the prices.
    I can’t see how it will change the demand.
    To do so there would have to be an alternative to its use which is then priced out of the market.

    More likely, the Adani mine, which will be one of the most highly automated in the world (ultra low employment), will produce very cheap coal, especially given the QLD gov’t subsidies.
    It will compete for diminishing markets, pushing other Australian mines out of business.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/23/australian-thermal-coal-exporters-warned-of-falling-demand-from-india

    2a. Yes, but only provided there are no subsidies, payment holidays or any other gov’t concessions of any sort; which, of course, would mean it would never get operational.

    2b. No. The Fed. gov’t needs to act in Australia’s best interests, and that means no more great big holes in ground left for future taxpayers to look after.

  24. D&M

    Totally agree. Trying to put up legislation re secondary boycotts to curb internal protesters, is one thing… international boycotts are out of his control to regulate.

    We will increasingly be seen as an international pariah.

  25. Pegasus @ #2172 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 5:16 pm

    Re-posted from this morning

    This also happened yesterday: Sherele Moody, who started the petition calling for Pauline Hanson to be removed from the latest family violence inquiry, which was tabled into the Senate by Larissa Waters, said this as part of a press conference:

    “After a cataclysmic event like this, domestic violence peaks,” she said. “Women become extremely unsafe, when generally the men return home from the fires and subject them to domestic violence.”

    Moody made her comments while standing next to Waters, causing the Greens senator to issue this statement later in the afternoon:

    The Greens absolutely do not support the statement made today by Sherele Moody that firefighters are responsible for an increase in domestic violence during times of disaster.

    Ms Moody is not affiliated with the Greens and does not speak for us. Today’s press conference with Senator Waters was held to receive a petition regarding the Family Law Inquiry. Ms Moody chose to make comments regarding matters unrelated to the press conference without our prior knowledge.

    The Greens not doing their due diligence on people they choose for their campaigning opportunities again I see. 😐

  26. Pegasus and D&M

    “international boycotts are out of his control to regulate.
    We will increasingly be seen as an international pariah.”

    Yes, we will. This is just the start. We are not big enough the cause other countries concern about consequences of boycotting our exports.
    More likely, it will be local boycotts by consumers of things like our wine.
    I recall not wanting to buy items from South Africa at the height of the anti-apartheid campaigns. The feeling did not go away. With social media such boycotts will be easier to organise, and more effective.

    Our exporters are in for a rough ride.

  27. Mexicanbeemer at 4.56pm: “Recently a Liberal member I work with told me that practically everyone in his branch saw climate change as a hoax.”

    That is very depressing. Are you able to shed more light on the demographics of that branch and how they’ve reached that conclusion? I’d like to think they were an isolated cabal rather than representative of the ordinary punters out there … Also do they give any thought to WHAT IF THEY ARE WRONG? ‘Cause if it’s a hoax, then one of the worst consequences is we hit peak fossil fuels much later and have them readily available for several more centuries. Scary huh. But if they are wrong, then thanks for wrecking us all on account of your dumb opinions folks.

    Arggghhhhhh seriously what is it with people???!!!!

  28. C@tmomma @ #2184 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 5:47 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2183 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 5:37 pm

    A pretty balanced piece about Day 1 of the Impeachment proceedings.

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2019/11/13/trump-impeachment-house-070840

    Thanks, GG. It looks like Devin Nunes and Jim Jordan acting like vaudevillian clowns isn’t working for the Repugs. 😀

    Because the proceedings are being live telecast across all the major networks the Pollies need to do something to provide colour, movement and entertainment to gain attention.

    They are playing to public opinion and not the facts of the case being prosecuted.

    But, as I said the piece from politico has a very balanced legalistic base.

  29. PvO got stuck into Frydenberg and the government on Ch 10 news – “19,000 jobs lost in one month”. Said it means greater welfare payments, lower tax receipts, surplus in trouble.

    Morrison is going to need our “thoughts and prayers” as the economy tanks, climate change manifests itself, aged care is in crisis, the NDIS is a shambles…

    On the other hand we could urge this:

  30. Mexicanbeemer @ #2160 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 4:56 pm

    It will impact the supply of coal but I don’t see it making much difference to demand (etc)

    I am interpreting this as:
    1: No.
    2a: No.
    2b: Yes.

    adrian @ #2161 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 5:03 pm

    Interpreting as:
    1. No.
    2a. No.
    2b. No.

    Maude Lynne @ #2180 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 5:34 pm

    Interpreting as:
    1. No.
    2a. Yes.
    2b. No.

    Pegasus @ #2173 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 5:18 pm

    Goodness! An easy one!:
    1. No
    2a. No
    2b. No

    Steve777 @ #2168 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 5:09 pm

    Interpreting as:
    1. No.
    2a. Yes.
    2b. Yes.

    Don Key @ #2164 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 5:07 pm

    No idea. (Sounds like a red herring.)

    A difficult one. But I think it is fair to interpret this as:
    1. No.
    2a. No.
    2b. No.

    All of you please advise if this was not what you meant.

    I will be going back through the posts again later, so if you believe your post is clear enough, but I missed it, no need to repost – I will pick it up later.

  31. guytaur @ #1834 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 6:42 am

    …Labor keeps being seen as weak on the environment.
    That keeps losing Labor elections.

    So, the voters are repeatedly choosing to continue the most blatant & ruthless environment trashing era of government we have ever seen (Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison), in order to punish Labor for (allegedly) being weak on the environment.

    If true, then the voters are fucked up beyond all help.

    Or, far more plausibly, environment friendly policies, especially biggies like climate change, are simply not election winners so far in Oz history, and arguably are actually election losers.

  32. Bancroft is not in the top 50 in first class averages or runs this years and bats like a cautious snail.

    His test batting average is Mitch Marsh standard without the occasional flourish.

  33. Mexicanbeemer @ #2191 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 6:22 pm

    PlayerOne
    1. No to demand, yes to supply
    2. No
    3. Maybe but lending towards no

    Ok. Changing yours to:
    1. No (this means you think it WILL have SOME impact, either on supply OR demand).
    2a. No.
    2b. No.

    Firefox @ #2194 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 6:30 pm

    I guess you mean:

    1. NO!!!
    2a. NO!!!
    2b. NO!!!

    guytaur @ #2193 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 6:28 pm

    1. No.
    2a. No.
    2b. No.

  34. JM

    See US polling. There are a lot of voters that think differently to you.

    There are socialist Trump voters or Trump voters willing to vote for socialists. That includes knowing about the “Squad” and AOC’s Green New Deal.

    It’s being seen as weak that’s the killer. Trump conned that he was strong. That got him votes.

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