Essential Research: budget surplus and economic management

Essential Research’s latest suggests voters still give the Coalition the edge on economic management, but are nervous about their prioritisation of surplus over stimulus.

It hasn’t yet appeared on the organisation’s website, but The Guardian had reports on Tuesday concerning the latest fortnightly poll from Essential Research, which is still holding its fire on voting intention. There’s the usual general report on the survey from Katharine Murphy, plus analysis from pollster Peter Lewis that features detailed tables for two of the key questions.

The headline finding is that 56% would favour prioritising economic stimulus at the cost of a later budget surplus to avoid a downturn, compared with 33% who favour a surplus as first priority. Other indicators of economic sentiment were more favourable for the government: only 29% of respondents deemed the government’s economic management the most likely cause of the IMF’s recent downgrade in Australia’s growth forecast, compared with 52% for factors outside the government’s control most likely to blame (comprising 42% for global factors and 10% for local ones), and 49% expressed greater trust in the Coalition to handle economic management compared with 34% for Labor (compared with 44% to 29% when the question was last asked in March). A question on the Extinction Rebellion movement found more favourable sentiment than you might have expected from following the news: 52% expressed support for the campaign, while 44% were opposed.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1033 respondents out of the pollster’s online panel.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,706 comments on “Essential Research: budget surplus and economic management”

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  1. I just wish people with progressive views would try to see things through the eyes of working class voters, and frame discussion about climate change in terms which are meaningful to suburban and working-class voters. Cheers
    _______________
    Take heart. Both parties seem wedded to the idea that the soul of the nation now resides in a nondescript court in an outer suburb full of ill-educated people with very definite opinions on all manner of things.


  2. Historyintime says:
    Sunday, November 3, 2019 at 11:40 am

    Labor doesn’t really need to change. It’s got a solid identity as a mildly reformist, mildly progressive political party. It fucked up in the 2019 election because the polling was wrong. The polling showed Labor’s somewhat aggressive and risky platform seemed to be working and the Shorten was not too much of a hindrance. In addition the Longman and Braddon by-elections seemed to show that Labor was on the right track.

    I agree with this, and it is why the Greens thought they could get away with the Queensland convoy of gas guzzlers. Labor would win and forgive and the anti labor party coalition could continue as a continual attack of a Labor government. Didn’t happen that way.

  5. Hello Nath. Elections aren’t won or lost in Marrickville. Or in Mosman. They are won or lost in places like Penrith and Parramatta. And the slur that voters in these suburbs are “ill-educated” and are living in “nondescript courts” is exactly the kind of stereotype that alienates these very voters.

  6. E. G. Theodore @ #1649 Sunday, November 3rd, 2019 – 7:10 pm

    I suggest we learn from the failure to prevent the smoking related lung cancer “epidemic” from spreading (shifting?) to Indonesia and apply the lessons (and others of course) to the case of coal.

    I suggest we learn from how Australia got its smoking epidemic under control ** – i.e. by taxing it.

    It works. Guaranteed.

    We need to do the same with coal.

    ** And you are talking to an ex-smoker.

  7. Pegasus:

    [‘I am looking forward to RI/Briefly’s rationalisation as to how that could be.’]

    I was shocked earlier in this thread where it was argued that RI (formerly know as “briefly”) was from the Left. If that be the case, Labor’s fooked.

  9. Parramatta Moderate:

    [‘Do you seriously think that climate change is a critical issue for these Australians?'[

    Most likely not -that is, until actuaries state their case.

  10. Pegasus

    But the idea that it’s the public that’s the drag on climate action is rubbish. Survey after survey over the past decade has shown that a majority of Australians want serious action – even if there are short term costs. The thing that needs explaining is why Labor has been so reluctant to offer it.

    This quote from the article you linked is utterly delusional. In three successive elections the public have voted against effective action on climate change. As a result, we have gone from a steady reduction in emissions under Labor to steadily increasing emissions under the LNP. What people say in surveys/polls is really pretty meaningless. Their actions are much more revealing.

  11. Player Onesays:
    Sunday, November 3, 2019 at 7:39 pm

    Parramatta Moderate @ #1648 Sunday, November 3rd, 2019 – 7:08 pm

    Do you seriously think that climate change is the critical issue for these Australians?

    You can ask this question on a site where most of us know how to interpret a poll?

    The use of the definite article indicates the number one critical issue.

    I never seen a poll on voting intention that has it anywhere near there when they rank issues that are most important in determining people’s vote.

  12. Parramatta Moderate, one need only observe the ALP’s fortunes within the past decade to see how far their adherence to the Lindsay Test has gotten them.

  13. It’s amazing how an upcoming election can suddenly change a series of tight fisted policies by the Tories.

    The latest is a promise by Johnson to remove the four year old freeze on the UK equivalent of Newstart payments. It joins promises to lift funding on the seriously underfunded NHS, poory funded public education and cuts to police numbers.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50278634

  14. No offense Simon, with reference to my throwaway line of you being ‘obtuse’. My comments after 1800 hours can be offensive. That’s why dear moderator has put me under observation.

  15. Lindsay Tanner, 2011:

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/life-after-the-circus-tanner-on-politics-20110429-1e0rr.html

    ”That era seems to have passed and we have descended into this world of announceables and gimmicks and stunts and I really believe the two prevailing rules of political behaviour now are: one, look like you’re doing something; and, two, don’t offend anyone who matters.

    ”So you end up in this kind of faux politics, where basically people are pretending, or they’re actually acting out roles in many areas and the content of the challenge is sidestepped because the price that would be paid for tackling a serious challenge is just too high.”
    :::
    “My key bit of advice is don’t put all your eggs in the one basket of internal Labor Party, labour movement machinations. Be active in political things that are outside the Labor Party – community organisations, campaigns, things that are compatible with being a Labor person with aspirations, and try and have some vestiges of a normal life.”

  16. Probably not drought-breaking, but some excellent rains in inland NSW. Bourke, on the Darling River, has recieved 94 mm since 9:00 yesterday.

  18. This is good.
    Not only are the Greens going to destroy most of the rural and regional economies for an annual loss of exports of $75 billion, the Greens Government is going to pay for universal free health care and universal free education for life. How much will this cost? Adani, of course.
    The Greens cost neither, of course, but this time they HAVE given some thought to the funding. This will be all be fixed by ‘progressive’ taxation.
    How much funding will be required?
    Adani, of course!

  19. “It’s amazing how an upcoming election can suddenly change a series of tight fisted policies by the Tories.”

    It’s a myth that Tories are careful with spending. It’s just that they hate spending on people and policies they don’t favour. And when it’s election time, the coffers are opened and it’s policies overboard. Just don’t ask where the money’s coming from. Of course nobody one does – that’s only ever asked of Labor. Whatever, it’ll be in next year’s budget should the voters be (to paraphrase Tony Abbott) stupid enough to re-elect them.

  21. The Green’s policies do not have to amount to much, never going to be implemented. Random ideas on a web page will do. No-one has to read them, let alone consider the consequences.

    You don’t need policy when your the junior party in the Anti Labor Coalition. The goal is to attack Labor, “not what Labor is doing” is enough real policy.

  23. frednk, boerwar and briefly…the three amigos who expend so much time and energy obsessing about the Greens, an irrelevant minor party that will never form a majority govermnent.

    Life is too short.

  24. Jolyon Wagg @ #1660 Sunday, November 3rd, 2019 – 6:23 pm

    Pegasus

    But the idea that it’s the public that’s the drag on climate action is rubbish. Survey after survey over the past decade has shown that a majority of Australians want serious action – even if there are short term costs. The thing that needs explaining is why Labor has been so reluctant to offer it.

    This quote from the article you linked is utterly delusional. In three successive elections the public have voted against effective action on climate change. As a result, we have gone from a steady reduction in emissions under Labor to steadily increasing emissions under the LNP. What people say in surveys/polls is really pretty meaningless. Their actions are much more revealing.

    There it is. What they say outside the polling station is irrelevant. How they vote inside it is what counts.

    As I have said before, I now think the Oz electorate will not move on climate change until and unless the USA does. So hope for a big Democrat win across the board in 12 months.


  25. Pegasus says:
    Sunday, November 3, 2019 at 9:26 pm

    frednk, boerwar and briefly…the three amigos who expend so much time and energy obsessing about the Greens, an irrelevant minor party that will never form a majority govermnent.

    Life is too short.

    Unfortunately the Anti Labor Coalition is successful. The junior party is a small but effective part.

  27. The government received a lot of kudos for implementing the vet discount card today. This is a cheap benefit as the government will not be paying for anything apart from printing the cards.

    I have been the beneficiary of similar schemes and the discounts are usually minimal, about 5-10% off the listed price and hardly worth going out of your way to get. Generally, I thought they were useless and I am sure vets will see it that way too, when the up-to 40% off never really happens.

    I suspect companies just consider the discount they give as a marketing cost of attracting another sale.

  28. Player One:

    I suggest we learn from how Australia got its smoking epidemic under control ** – i.e. by taxing it.

    It works. Guaranteed.

    We need to do the same with coal.

    ** And you are talking to an ex-smoker.

    If you can figure out how Australia can tax coal in Indonesia then you’re on a winner!

    Should we invade? The Poll-bludger Regiment! Bucephalus can command the M1A1 and perhaps Boerwar might be willing to blow the Flugelhorn! They have it coming after all. They won’t know what’s hit them! Let’s roll…

  29. frednk

    “the anti-labor coalition.”

    You’re just projecting your persecution complex. The whole world is against you. Every person and their dog has it in for you and there’s nothing you can do about it.

  30. Mavis (sometime Davis):

    I was shocked earlier in this thread where it was argued that RI (formerly know as “briefly”) was from the Left.

    This is a failure to distinguish between “being from the Left” and “being an idiot”. Briefly is clearly the former and clearly not the latter.

  31. The race for the Democratic presidential nomination is both competitive and fluid less than 100 days before the Iowa caucuses, with a stable trio of leading candidates and a fourth — Pete Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Ind. — now rising above a dozen others in the low single-digits, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.

    Democrats see former vice president Joe Biden as the strongest leader among the top candidates and also say he has the best chance of defeating President Trump. But he holds no advantage on five other attributes, including policy issues, bringing needed change and being mentally sharp. He remains atop the field, with Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) trailing, Warren within the margin of error.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-warren-and-buttigieg-rise-the-democratic-presidential-race-is-competitive-and-fluid-a-washington-post-abc-news-poll-finds/2019/11/02/4b7aca3c-fccd-11e9-8906-ab6b60de9124_story.html

  32. Citizen:

    It’s amazing how an upcoming election can suddenly change a series of tight fisted policies by the Tories.

    Mostly they know Brexit will be contractionary and want the pump primed and gushing in an attempt to compensate

  33. E. G. Theodore @ #1678 Sunday, November 3rd, 2019 – 10:08 pm

    Player One:

    I suggest we learn from how Australia got its smoking epidemic under control ** – i.e. by taxing it.

    It works. Guaranteed.

    We need to do the same with coal.

    ** And you are talking to an ex-smoker.

    If you can figure out how Australia can tax coal in Indonesia then you’re on a winner!

    If you really can’t figure this out, then you are a loser.

  35. Player One says:
    Sunday, November 3, 2019 at 3:51 pm
    A warning …

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-03/united-nations-chief-warns-asia-quit-addiction-to-coal/11667416

    And guess who supplies these countries with much of their coal?

    Australia is the world’s biggest coal exporter, with most Australian coal being sent to Asia.

    Indonesia is the world’s largest exporter of thermal coal, running to about 400 million tonnes, or 5% of world consumption. Australia exports about 200 million tonnes of thermal coal, of which 2/3 is produced in NSW and 1/3 in QLD.

    Australia is the largest exporter of metallurgical coal.

    The seaborne coal trade is small in comparison to the total demand for coal, with shipments by all exporters running to about 18% of total thermal coal consumed.

  38. E. G. Theodore says:
    Sunday, November 3, 2019 at 3:12 pm

    Breifly – I still find you annoyingly left wing! (But always open to ideas)

    Thank you, Red. Incorrigible is the word….and likewise, to be sure.

  39. RI @ #1685 Sunday, November 3rd, 2019 – 10:29 pm

    Indonesia is the world’s largest exporter of thermal coal, running to about 400 million tonnes, or 5% of world consumption. Australia exports about 200 million tonnes of thermal coal, of which 2/3 is produced in NSW and 1/3 in QLD.

    Australia is the largest exporter of metallurgical coal.

    The seaborne coal trade is small in comparison to the total demand for coal, with shipments by all exporters running to about 18% of total thermal coal consumed.

    Burn coal! More coal! Pleeeaase!

  40. Player One:

    If you really can’t figure this out, then you are a loser.

    Ok – explain how coal that is mined in Indonesia, traded in Indonesia and burned in Indonesia should be taxed by Australia. For example, how is the tax base calculated?

  41. “Progressive” ….. what the heck is that?

    Is it like how a “correctional institution” is so much better than a “prison” and more profitable (and honest?).

    Is a capitalist who knows a “gay” person a progressive?

    Is a police thug who recycles his garbage progressive?

    Is a Labor parliamentarian who votes against marriage equality progressive?

    Is a Liberal merchant banker parliamentarian who votes for marriage equality progressive?

    It’s a wonderful word.

    So inclusive.

    So liberal.

    So 21st century marketing.

  42. E. G. Theodore @ #1690 Sunday, November 3rd, 2019 – 10:46 pm

    Player One:

    If you really can’t figure this out, then you are a loser.

    Ok – explain how coal that is mined in Indonesia, traded in Indonesia and burned in Indonesia should be taxed by Australia. For example, how is the tax base calculated?

    I ask this question of everyone who promotes Australian coal: How is it that Australian coal is competitive on world markets, when it has to be shipped halfway across the planet to its customers, right past our biggest competitors?

    I know the answer to this question. Do you? 🙁

  43. “Progressive” ….. what the heck is that?

    Is a capitalist who knows a “gay” person a progressive?
    Unknown. We have no information on how the capitalist feels about gay people.

    Is a police thug who recycles his garbage progressive?
    He’s being progressive at least once a week.

    Is a Labor parliamentarian who votes against marriage equality progressive?
    Not during that vote.

    Is a Liberal merchant banker parliamentarian who votes for marriage equality progressive?
    Yes, during that vote.

  44. Player One:

    Burn coal! More coal! Pleeeaase!

    It would be great if we could tax coal worldwide (currently we can’t even manage to do so within Australia…)

    We could quintuple the size of the RAN and send them out to hunt down coal carriers. That could enable us to “tax” (piracy is such a nasty word) the fraction of thermal coal that is traded by sea (18% if Briefly’s figure is correct)

    What about the Chinese? – the miscreants have the temerity to sell coal to each other instead of putting it on ships like any decent nation would do. So we’ll need marines too. Perhaps we should try selling them Tasmanian opium on the sly? – could make a quick buck – it worked really well last time…

    (As you are well aware I think a net-neutral emissions intensity scheme would be of great benefit within Australian electricity production. However, that does nothing about rising demand in Asia)

  45. Indonesia sets Sep HBA thermal coal price at $65.79/mt, lowest since Oct 2016

    Author Fred Wang Anita Nugraha
    Editor Nurul Darni
    Commodity Coal

    Singapore — Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources set its September thermal coal reference price — also known as Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA — at $65.79/mt, down 9.5% month on month and down 37.2% year on year, the lowest since October 2016.

    Existing Chinese import curbs with an uptick in domestic coal production, weak seaborne demand from India, the ongoing trade dispute between US and China and lower coal demand from Europe were the main factors pulling down prices…

    https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/coal/091019-indonesia-sets-sep-hba-thermal-coal-price-at-6579-mt-lowest-since-oct-2016

    Coal demand for thermal purposes is weak and getting weaker….

  46. Player Onesays:
    Sunday, November 3, 2019 at 10:27 pm

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1661 Sunday, November 3rd, 2019 – 8:01 pm

    I never seen a poll on voting intention that has it anywhere near there when they rank issues that are most important in determining people’s vote.

    Have you not been listening? Or can you only hear things that echo your own delusions?

    So that’s why the Party advocating no action keeps getting re-elected! 😆

    I think you’re the one who needs to check their delusions.

  47. nath:

    “Progressive” ….. what the heck is that?

    It’s an American term resulting from their usual process of grammatical torture, which has for some unknown reason been adopted in other parts of the world, commonly by people lacking familiarity with their own language.

  49. When i was young, in Queensland Joh Jelke and Russel Hinze believed in “progress”.

    People like me who tried to fight for preserving Queensland’s architectural heritage were left wing anti-progressive.

    Still am 🙂

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