Update Wednesday morning: With Labour finally backing an election, the Commons overwhelmingly passed on Tuesday a bill setting the election for Thursday, December 12. An amendment to hold the election on December 9 was rejected by 315 votes to 295. The bill now goes to the House of Lords, where it is expected to pass quickly. The Commons will be dissolved next Wednesday.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at The University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
On Monday, despite some objections from French President Emmanuel Macron, the European Union agreed to a Brexit extension until January 31. However, Labour still does not appear to want an election, and so Monday’s vote on whether to hold an election will not achieve the two-thirds majority required.
However, the Liberal Democrats and Scottish National Party (SNP) will assist by voting for a bill setting a December 9 election date. Legislation only requires a simple majority to pass. The government is likely to support this bill if they cannot win Monday’s vote. Commentator Stephen Bush wrote that Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal is likely to pass eventually if parliament continues sitting, and so it makes sense for Remainers to vote for an election in the hope that the Conservatives will be defeated.
The Conservatives currently have a double digit lead over Labour in the polls. This partly reflects the greater unity of the Leave vote, with Labour and the Lib Dems both opposed to Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal and no-deal, but the Lib Dems appealing to pure Remainers. The Conservatives received a further boost after agreeing the deal with the EU. Voting with the Conservatives to hold an election could damage the Lib Dems with Remain voters.
As we all know, Leave won the 2016 Brexit referendum by 51.9% to 48.1%. The trouble since then has stemmed from Leave being undefined. But had there been a clear proposal for Leave at that referendum, it would probably have lost – see the Australian 1999 Republic referendum. There would have been people who wanted to Leave in principle, but not with that particular deal.
Now that there is a clear Brexit proposal, it will be attacked during an election campaign by both Labour and Nigel Farage’s Brexit party. And there is plenty about the deal to attack from a left perspective.
Bush wrote that the proposed deal would mean a hard Brexit. If the UK leaves under this deal, a no-deal Brexit could occur in December 2020 once the transition period ends. If the Conservatives win the next election, there will probably either be a high-divergence Brexit, or a no-deal Brexit by December 2020.
The more Labour can turn the election into a referendum on Johnson’s deal, the greater their chance of winning.
Left wins Argentine presidential election
At the October 27 Argentine election, the centre-left candidate, Alberto Fernández, defeated the conservative incumbent president, Mauricio Macri, by a 48.0% to 40.5% margin. 45% or more was needed to avoid a runoff. Polls had predicted a Fernández win by almost 20 points. Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who was a controversial left-wing president from 2007 to 2015, returns as vice president.
Left-wing parties have performed well in recent national elections in Portugal, Canada, Argentina, Switzerland and Bolivia (see below). Does this mean the general trend to the right globally can or will be halted?
Election updates: Israel, the US, Switzerland and Bolivia
Right-wing Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu was unable to form a government, and returned the mandate on October 21. On October 23, the Israeli president nominated the left-leaning Blue & White leader Benny Gantz to attempt to form a government, and he has four weeks from that date. Expectations are that Gantz will also fail, and that elections will be required for the third time in a year.
Most US states hold their elections concurrently with federal elections, but there are a few state elections on November 5. Virginia and New Jersey will hold legislative elections, while Kentucky and Mississippi hold gubernatorial elections. Given presidential leans of these states, I expect Democrats to hold New Jersey and gain Virginia’s legislature, but Republicans to hold Kentucky and Mississippi.
On my personal website, I wrote about the Greens’ surge at the October 20 Swiss election, where a unique system of executive government is used. Also covered: the left-wing Bolivian president was re-elected for a fourth successive term, the far-right dominates Hungarian local elections despite a setback in Budapest, and the far-right surges in German and Italian October 27 state elections.
I’m still hopeful it won’t quite be a one issue election. But if it is, labour are probably screwed – as a) the Lib-Dems will be the beneficiaries and b) they will happily and deliberately bring labour down in the process.
Hopefully forcing destitute voters to trudge off to queue in polling stations in the freezing cold while they could be going to christmas parties – will drive home the bitter memory of austerity of these last 10 years – and who do blame for it.
“The further Labour is ahead of the Lib Dems, the more likely Lib Dem voters will see Labour as the party they need to vote for to stop Boris’ Brexit.”
I wonder how much of the lib-dem polling numbers are labour voters siding with them while it doesn’t matter (ie outside an election cycle), but will move back to labour when it counts. Conceivably the BP polling is in a similar situation (from both sides). I guess polls from here on in may tell.
There are a number of comments here expressing unkind opinions about the Lib Dems. They seem to be based on the notion that the be-all and end-all of Lib Dem existence is Remain. This is mistaken. What they want is PR. With PR they get – they hope – a permanent place at the top table, always able to get Ministerial limos and spots on the telly. Under FPTP they get that once every forty years or so. All the time is better.
So the question is – does an election now help them get PR ? Well obviously not if Boris wins. But he could lose – or draw, which counts as losing – and then the Lib Dems can demand PR as the price of putting Corbyn in as a minority PM. That after all was the price they demanded of Cameron, though they foolishly settled for a referendum. They won’t make that mistake again.
If they wait another year or two, propping up this zombie Parliament, the odds on getting another hung Parliament fall. Either the electorate will get annoyed with the zombies and put Boris back in with a majority, or there’ll be a recession and Labour will get a majority. A Labour majority is no good to the Lib Dems.
Now is probably their best chance of getting a hung Parliament with Labour close enough to the Tories to form a government with Lib Dem and SNP support . They only need the Tories to lose 20-30 seats net, and that’s certainly possible. Adrian’s poll today had 34-26-18-11 for an 8 point Tory lead. Small 2.5% campaign swing to Labour 31.5-28.5 -18-11 for a 3 point Tory lead is enough for a small Lab-LibDem-SNP majority. Boris is a gaffe machine, let us not forget.
Although LibDems are certainly ardent Remainers, one should not assume that that’s their Holy Grail. If you offered them PR at the price of a No Deal Brexit, they’d bite your arm off.
Lee Moore, I’m sure thats a very well thought out post. Unfortunately everything hinges on the reader knowing what “PR” stands for – which I don’t. Sorry.
edit: oh I think its public relations right?
I thought it was some technical term.
Lee Moore, what is PR?
snap
Pr is. A system of voting where by the number of seats a party wins equates with the number of votes they receive proportional representation
proportional representation, ok.
I’m assuming that would get them more seats than they currently hold, with the same percentage of the vote.
In any case, FPTP is the pits.
mick Quinlivan @ #107 Thursday, October 31st, 2019 – 12:21 pm
Thank you, but I’m struggling. “Proportional Representation” must have some subtle ramifications. (not being sarcastic) The UK uses FPTP. To win you need a plurality of votes in a majority of seats. You become over represented. By definition that means everyone else (or maybe just about everyone else) is under represented. (This is where it becomes complicated.) Is there a threshold where you climb rapidly from no representation to over representation? Is that what PR means?
Never mind. I think I worked it out. PR is a Lib-Dem policy. Please ignore my previous comment.
Is this confusion over the meaning of PR fair dinkum?
See New Zealand and Germany for current working examples.
Ante Meridian @ #111 Thursday, October 31st, 2019 – 1:54 pm
My fault. Sorry. When I first read “What they want is PR” all I could think of was Public Relations, which made no sense. So then I thought it meant something to do with being in a coalition government. (PM means Prime Minister. What might Prime R be?) Then I overthunk it. Within the context of FPTP there must be a threshold where your overall vote share can equal your seat share. It wasn’t until I twigged that wanting PR simply means changing the FPTP system that I got the meaning. I had the wrong context.
Funny and a bit embarrassing .
Late Riser,
No worries. I have personal experience of being bewildered by acronyms that get tossed around on this site. It was just that you and Big A both seemed to be still confused after you worked out what PR stands for.
Lee Moore,
If you’re reading this, it’s a good idea to write an expression out in full the first time you use it to give readers something to refer to when you subsequently use initials.
Ante Meridian @ #113 Thursday, October 31st, 2019 – 2:13 pm
When I first started on this site I was just back in country after 20 years away. IPA was (and still is) a favourite beer. The anger at the IPA had me totally confused. 🙂
It took me ages to realise that SHY is a person. Then I had to work out which person.
Perception is reality? It still feels as if the British election is a Brexit Election, but this video says there is more to it. Brexit might be a means to an end, not an end in itself.
https://youtu.be/Qic0AP4R-4Q
Apologies. PR is proportional representation, for which there are at least 2,077 different systems, and every wonk has his favourite – about which he is passionate and will die in a ditch to defend. Some are very proportional – you get 2% of the vote you get 2% of the seats. Others are fairly proportional with wrinkles. All have some kind of a minimum threshold.
So for example in the 2019 elections to the European Parliament which was done on a Party List system in multimember constituency with between 4 and 10 seats to be had, the parties got :
Brexit Party 30.5% votes, 39.7% seats
Lib Dems 19.6% votes, 21.9% seats
Labour 13.7% votes, 13.7% seats
Green 11.6% votes, 9.6% seats
Conservative 8.8% votes, 5.5% seats
Scot Nats 3.5% votes, 4.1% seats
Welsh Nats plus various Irish 3% votes, 5.6% seats
Everybody else 9.3% votes, zero seats
So there’s a modest premium on being a big party in a particular constituency – which is why the Nationalists do OK, their vote is concentrated in a particular constituency (Scotland, Wales and N Ireland each being one single constiuency.) The cut off for being too small varies by constituency from about 10% in the biggest to about 20%in the smallest.
Anyway the point is not the particular system but that in any PR system it’s virtually* impossible for one party to get a majority on its own. (*I have a feeling the NZ Nationals got a tiny majority a couple of elections ago with something like 48% of the vote. )
And if you’re a party that usually gets 10%-20% of the vote, then a PR system means that you will almost always be required by one or other of the two big parties to make up a majority. So you always have a good chance of getting some Ministerial posts, and because both big parties will be desperate for your support, you get to punch above your weight..
Being a small party under PR is fun. Being a small party under FPTP is miserable.
you can have a system like Germany where you require a threshold of 5% to share in the seats. also you can have say 7 seats in an area so you need 14% in that area.\Yes the down side to or is that it is very difficult for any party to get a majority
The Scottish PR system is called an Additional Member System.
Electors have two votes. The first vote is for a single candidate to represent the constituency, elected by a simple FPTP system. There are 73 constituency MSPs elected.
The second vote is for a party and determines the make up of the overall Parliament. The country is divided into 7 regions with each region electing 8 MSPs for a total of 56.
A party gets MSPs in addition to any constituency MSP it has to bring its Parliamentary numbers up to its proportion of the second vote (within that region).
A party must get at least 4% of the vote to qualify for additional members.
The regional divisions can partly distort the strict proportionality of the results.
Latest Survation Poll
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1189683286307680262/photo/1
Conservative. 34% (+2)
Labour. 26% (+2)
Liberal Democrats. 19% (-2)
Brexit. 12% (-1)
SNP. 4% (nc)
Green. 1% (-1)
Other. 4% (nc)
Among all the other news of Bad Boris, brexit and an election, this one sneaked through. The UK green fund is being used to finance fracking in Argentina. This is news because back to Thatcher the UK Conservatives have supported action to halt climate change. Now they are back-pedalling. Boris really is Trump-lite, right down to the links to dodgy financiers.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/22/uk-to-use-1bn-meant-for-green-energy-to-support-fracking-in-argentina
There is plenty to attack, if Labour finds a spine.
The UK Labour Party’s tribal hatred for the SNP is on show again.
They have agreed with the Conservatives to run dead to support the Liberal Democrat candidate to try to remove the SNP Westminster leader, Ian Blackford.
The Liberal Democrats will never support a minority Labour Government whereas the SNP have already intimated they would.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/labour-and-tories-will-sit-back-to-let-lib-dems-oust-blackford-s77mrgtxj
mick Quinlivan,
Making it difficult for a single party to get a majority isn’t a downside. Parliaments are supposed to represent a diverse range of views and make decisions based on debate and (sometimes) compromise. They were not designed as a winner-take-all system where a small group at the top of a party with the numbers can rule unchecked. A parliament without an outright majority is actually closer to how the system was designed to work.
The Liberal Democrats will never support a minority Labour Government whereas the SNP have already intimated they would.
I don’t think that’s true at all. There’s an election on. The Lib Dems are fighting to win Tory seats, where they need to pick up the votes of moderate / Remainer disgruntled Tories. Since Corbyn is toxic to such folk, the Lib Dems can’t imply anything other than hostility to Corbyn.
After an election which finishes with say Labour 240, SNP 50, Lib Dems 40 (majority req’d 326) – with another election 5 years away, the LibDems will have no problem joining a Lab-SNP-LibDem government; or simply supporting a minority Lab government in return for a promise of PR (that would be “proportional representation.”) After they’ve got PR, the current FPTP dynamic, that their key target voters are moderate centre-right folk, disappears. Then they can pursue their real goal which is to supplant Labour as the main party of the left, a progressive non socialist party akin to the modern US Democratic Party.
Lee Moore
“ Then they can pursue their real goal which is to supplant Labour as the main party of the left, a progressive non socialist party akin to the modern US Democratic Party.”
———-
Isn’t most of the LDP rhetoric anti-Labour and pro-Tory?
They have shown a propensity to abandon everything for power. They may support Brexit in a Tory-Liberal Government 🙂
They are certainly not favouring SNP another pro-remain party. Also, the LDP is on record of never “allowing” another Scottish referendum.
A view of the potential difficulties facing the Conservatives election bid.
“ As Channel 4’s Krishnan Guru-Murthy put it: “All I’m predicting is that this isn’t nearly as predictable as everyone who got their predictions wrong before think it is now.”
This General Election will not just be about Brexit, it will unleash a backlog of anger and discontent, and the unelected PM – blind-sided by a cosy media – may be in for a surprise.
Here’s ten reasons to suggest the General Election won’t be as easy as everyone thinks:“
https://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2019/10/30/why-this-wont-be-a-coronation-for-boris/
Isn’t most of the LDP rhetoric anti-Labour and pro-Tory?
No, it’s certainly not pro-Tory. To the extent that it’s anti-Labour that’s tactical, as I explained. They are targetting the demographic that thinks Philip Hammond and Dominic Grieve are wonderful. This may of course be a smaller demographic than they think.
The bellacaledonia thing is pretty clueless. It’s certainly true that the election is very unlikely to be a Tory walkover. But the idea that the Tory campaign is going to be characterised by strutting arrogance is nuts. Boris has only got one trick, and that’s self deprecating humour.
The betting markets have it at 50% that the Tories get a majority. That means a 50% chance that they don’t. That seems fair enough with the current polls.
Thanks swamprat. It almost feels like the author of the article is trying to convince themselves. My take away is the overall uncertainty.
One of the comments made me smile.
LR, there were some good comments in that. My favourite one was this:
“Perhaps the Conservatives are generally more vulnerable to gaffes. After all, they cannot really afford to utter their core ideology in public. ”
Thats actually so close to the mark that I can’t even bring myself to laugh at it. Applies just as well to Aussie Tories
Big A, I had stopped reading the comments but you got me back to read the rest. Thanks for that. Those gaffe prone ideologues might represent “blind loyalty” and ignorance. To borrow from the Australian PM, the ones to watch for are the “quiet ones” who are smart enough to know they can’t do the required gymnastics.
Interesting. Perhaps the Brexit Party will split the Leaver vote.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/nov/01/general-election-news-latest-brexit-farage-restates-call-for-brexit-party-pact-with-tories-live-news
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/01/farage-to-johnson-join-forces-or-brexit-party-will-contest-every-seat
Farage got in first. Could Johnson make the Tories look even weaker by acceding? Fascinating dilemma. (I had thought Johnson had Farage’s measure. I take it all back.)
Well the 31 October has passed and Boris has failed to keep his promise. How disappointing. Trump’s flagrant attempt to influence a foreign election is appalling, yet we have almost grown used to such inappropriate behaviour. Corbyn plainly wanted Brexit himself, which has made him an ineffective opposition leader. Boris was May’s opposition. I see no good choices for stable leadership for Britain here. Brexit is an escapist fantasy, not a solution.
More UK polls. These are grim for Labour, but at least they’re ahead of the Lib Dems, and far ahead in Panelbase. The Ipsos one was taken before the election vote was passed.
Britain Elects@britainelects
·
11h
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 40% (+4)
LAB: 29% (+2)
LDEM: 14% (-3)
BREX: 9% (-2)
GRN: 3% (-)
via @Panelbase, 30 – 31 Oct
Britain Elects@britainelects
·
31 Oct
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 41% (+8)
LAB: 24% (-)
LDEM: 20% (-3)
BREX: 7% (-3)
GRN: 3% (-1)
via @IpsosMORI, 25 – 28 Oct
Britain Elects@britainelects
·
31 Oct
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 36% (-)
LAB: 21% (-2)
LDEM: 18% (-)
BREX: 13% (+1)
GRN: 6% (-)
via @YouGov
Chgs. w/ 25 Oct
Lets not draw too many conclusions from national poll % – its all the regional split and 1st vs 2nd races that, though i spose the Tories hitting 40% could be so high a number that a majority has to follow irrespective.
I would like to see a poll in a single seat that shows a Tory pickup from Labour. A trend of these in the north and a Boris bloodbath is truly on.
Farage hitting Boris’ deal from the right + an effective hit on the deal from the centre… that could change things a bit
EF: Yes. 40 days of campaigning still to go. Farage last night bowled a bouncer at Johnson.
AB: Do we know how national polls are “layered” onto 650 electorates? For example, does the national poll delta for each party since the previous election get added to the previous election result for an electorate, or is it more sophisticated?
In 2017, the Tories got 42.4%, but that wasn’t enough for a majority as Labour got 40.0%. There was a dramatic surge to Labour from mid-May (the election was June 8). The questions are whether Corbyn can improve his ratings like in 2017, and whether Boris’ deal stinks by Election Day.
LR, I think they use uniform national swing, but adjust for Scotland voting intentions
Thanks AB. So a bit nuanced for Scotland’s 59 seats. (I am continually surprised how small a proportion Scotland:59, Wales:40, and NI:18 are when compared with England:533.)
I’m struck by the following thought. I’ve heard that Johnson’s deal allows for a No Deal Brexit if no ratification (or something) happens during its transition period, which would default to a No Deal Brexit on December 31, 2020. So why is Farage pushing Johnson so hard at this stage? Why aren’t the Conservatives “talking” with the Brexit Party, to calm them down? Even if it is untrue that Johnson is actually planning for No Deal at the end of 2020, it would be a plausible way to pacify Farage until Johnson doesn’t need him any more. Perhaps Johnson’s casual betrayal of the DUP is having unanticipated ramifications. If so, yesterday’s press conference by Farage may well be theatre to cover a decision already made. The Brexit Party will campaign against the Tories, with the finesse of explicitly tying selected Tory MPs to his goals. ??
Lib-dems just announced they are standing in a seat that is held by a staunchly pro-remain labour candidate by a threadbare few hundred vote majority over the tories. Last election the lib-dems got 8% of the vote.
This is the party to stop brexit, apparently.
LR, Farrage is running with the “kicking the can down the road” argument. Presumably for him even the likelihood of a no-deal after a year is not enough, it has to be now.
That and of course he wants brand differentiation too.
Hilarious!
https://twitter.com/straylight08/status/1190390255783960578?s=19
My favourite line:
“But labour dont want the people to have their say”
Big A Adrian @ #144 Saturday, November 2nd, 2019 – 3:27 pm
The ad also says, “That’s why the Liberal Democrats will campaign to stay in Europe in the referendum.” Why risk something they already had? There’s obviously some political context I don’t know about. Wedging Labour?
@Adrian Beaumont
The Labour Party has a membership of close to 500,000, which will be out in force to actively hustle and campaign for the party. That is the equivalent of the Australian Labor Party having nearly 200,000 members.
Today’s polls suggest increasing polarisation between the Tories and Labour. Labour well behind at the moment, but we’ll see if that changes given an NHS-focused campaign. Note that the last ORB poll was in April, when Theresa May was still PM.
Britain Elects @britainelects
·
1h
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 40% (+3)
LAB: 28% (+4)
LDEM: 14% (-5)
BREX: 11% (-)
via @DeltapollUK, 31 Oct – 02 Nov
Britain Elects @britainelects
·
4h
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 36% (+10)
LAB: 28% (-1)
LDEM: 14% (+6)
BREX: 12% (-2)
via @ORB_Int, 30 – 31 Oct
Chgs. w/ Apr
Britain Elects@britainelects
·
5h
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+2)
LAB: 26% (+2)
LDEM: 16% (+1)
BREX: 9% (-1)
GRN: 2% (-1)
via @OpiniumResearch, 30 Oct – 01 Nov
This may be an indication that pollsters are overestimating Leave turnout: nobody turned up for a Doncaster pro-Leave protest.
https://www.thestar.co.uk/news/confusion-no-one-turns-huge-pro-brexit-demo-doncaster-825135
Two more UK polls. Brexit party tanks 6% in YouGov as Labour surges 6%, but Tories also up by 3%.
Britain Elects @britainelects
·
10m
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 39% (+3)
LAB: 27% (+6)
LDEM: 16% (-2)
BREX: 7% (-6)
via @YouGov, 30 Oct – 01 Nov
Chgs. w/ 30 Oct
Britain Elects Retweeted
ComRes @ComRes
·
1h
Our first #GE2019 Westminster voting intention of the campaign on behalf of the Sunday Express
CON 36% (+3)
LAB 28% (-1)
LD 17% (-1)
BRX 10% (-2)
Other 9% (-)
30th – 31st Oct
(changes from ComRes/
@britainelects poll, 19th Oct 2019)
Sunday is popular for UK polls (they’re published in the Sunday UK papers and released on Sat night UK time). There probably won’t be many more until next Sunday.