Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

No change at all on voting intention in the latest Newspoll, which records a mixed bag of movements on the leaders’ personal ratings.

The Australian reports absolutely no change on voting intention in the latest Newspoll, which is now appearing predictably on a three-weekly schedule. The Coalition continues to lead 51-49 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 42%, Labor 33%, Greens 13% (maintaining a four-year high) and One Nation 6%. Scott Morrison is steady on 47% approval and up two on disapproval to 45%, while Anthony Albanese’s ratings continue to yo-yo, with approval down two to 37% and disapproval up four to 44%. Despite that, Morrison’s lead as preferred minister is now at 47-32, narrowing from 50-31. The field work period was presumably Thursday to Sunday, and the sample presumably between 1600 and 1700. UPDATE: The sample was 1634, consisting of 953 online and 681 automated phone poll surveys, the latter breakdown still being the only concession offered to greater transparency since the election.

Note also below this post Adrian Beaumont’s latest on Brexit and Canada.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,139 thoughts on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 4 of 23
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  1. Foods with the highest concentration of neurotoxins tended to be rice-based products, sweet potatoes and fruit juices, according to the report.

    “Even in the trace amounts found in food, these contaminants can alter the developing brain and erode a child’s IQ. The impacts add up with each meal or snack a baby eats,” said the analysis, as CNN reported.

    Four of seven infant rice cereals had a toxic form of arsenic in excess of the FDA’s threshold of 100 parts per billion (ppb).

    https://www.ecowatch.com/toxic-metals-baby-food-2641003126.html?rebelltitem=1#rebelltitem1

  3. C@tmomma

    Sorry to remind you but poll aggregation, which I used to be a big fan of, had it wrong in 2016 and here back in May. Apologies to William Bowe! I know you’ll hate this, seeing as how he endorses Bernie Sanders, but Michael Moore had it right three years ago, he’s quite good at reading the mood of the people outside of Washington and NY.

  4. lizzie at 7.23am

    Thanks for the article from The Age about clothes recycling. Great stuff! Didn’t know there were all those options available for worn out clothes: thought you just had to bin them. There are only so many rags for cleaning shoes or windows that you can make from old undies.

  5. lizziesays:
    Monday, October 21, 2019 at 12:38 pm

    Barney

    anything that shows him or the Government as being a hypocrite or lying.

    So he “takes offence” at anything at all said by Labor!!

    It’s a natural reflex when confronted by uncomfortable details.

  6. seeing as how he endorses Bernie Sanders, but Michael Moore had it right three years ago, he’s quite good at reading the mood of the people outside of Washington and NY.

    In the recent head to head polls done in Iowa, only Sanders beats Trump. And he regularly out polls Warren in these head to heads in some important states.

  7. Joanne Murphy

    My pleasure. Last week I went to the local Charity Shop and asked them what gifts were acceptable, and was told that the helpers take stuff home, and wash and mend it where possible. I was most impressed.

  8. janet albrechtsen
    @jkalbrechtsen
    We, at @australian, are in the democracy business. The role of newspapers is to educate the public because a free and democratic society depends on an educated people. That is why we are fighting for your right to know.

    I think she means your right to know the “truth” about the lefties.

  9. Bit rich for the likes Albrechtsen to waffle on about “free and democratic society” stuff when in the not-too-distance past, an editorial in the Oz stated ones of its aims, as a newspaper, was to destroy the Greens as a political force. Now, I have no particular brief for the Greens, but statement such as that, in an editorial, says it all from my perspective.
    As some joking say, ‘If I want to read about Liberal/National policies I can go straight to their website rather than pay to read it in The Australian’. Of course, the same applies to the sad old West newspaper which now has to rely upon Murdoch press mouthpieces for its sources of opinion. Of course, our local Paul Murray has free rein to vent at least twice a week…..

  10. Elizabeth Warren is a high risk candidate, she excites lefties/progressives but US politics is different because its culture is different. Most western countries were founded as nation states so are quite comfortable with the idea of a strong state but America was founded on different principles. Elizabeth Warren might be competitive but unless there is a shape decline in the US economy then the chances are Trump would be returned.

  11. Four Corners looks good tonight..

    Reprehensible conduct: The scandalous case of Lawyer X and the underbelly murder investigations
    “This is probably the single biggest scandal to hit the Australian justice system in history.” Editor

    Informer 3838 was the secret police weapon in the fight to end Melbourne’s murderous gangland wars. For years the public only knew of her as Lawyer X until she was unmasked as the high-profile barrister, Nicola Gobbo.

    Her clients were a who’s who of the “underbelly” world, including infamous gangsters like Carl Williams and Tony Mokbel. As the body count in the deadly criminal war climbed, she worked hard and partied hard, playing a dangerous double game.

  13. For you serious psephologists an attractively presented assessment of where Canadians stand on the eve of Monday’s federal election. The graphics are very impressive.

    https://abacusdata.ca/final-abacus-2019-canada-election-poll/

    You’ll note that the major political leader who has, by far, the best approval/disapproval rating wears a turban.

    You’ll forgive me for mistaking you for someone who gives a damn. U.S. politics are much more fun

  15. SK – your claim is misleading: from that Wikipedia article, this:

    “ The popular vote tally from most news organizations did not include Iowa, Maine, Nevada, and Washington. These states did not release the results of the popular vote from their caucuses. The media reports did include Florida, which neither Clinton nor Obama contested, and Michigan. Both states were penalized by the Democratic National Committee (DNC) for violating party rules. Michigan proved a source of controversy due to the change in the date of the primary election. Consequently, Obama and other nominees removed their names from the ballot yet Clinton did not. The DNC did not count the popular vote from Michigan, and evenly split the states delegates between Clinton and Obama. As a result, without the Michigan vote, Obama won the popular vote; whereas with the votes from Michigan, Clinton won the popular vote.

    3

    Nevertheless, regardless of how votes were counted, the candidates’ totals were within less than one percent of each other.

    4

    ”

    _______________

    Tripping down amnesia lane I have a vague recollection of all of that now.

  16. beguiledagain @ #163 Monday, October 21st, 2019 – 1:13 pm

    For you serious psephologists an attractively presented assessment of where Canadians stand on the eve of Monday’s federal election. The graphics are very impressive.

    https://abacusdata.ca/final-abacus-2019-canada-election-poll/

    You’ll note that the major political leader who has, by far, the best approval/disapproval rating wears a turban.

    You’ll forgive me for mistaking you for someone who gives a damn. U.S. politics are much more fun

    Anything but more useless Conservatives, the world already has enough of them.

  17. Bellwether
    And as Moore said on the weekend, the election should be about defeating ‘that which gave us Trump’. Now that Biden is slipping to second/third place, I don’t know if he has a comeback in him

  20. SK – your claim is misleading

    Not at all. Hilary did far better in the 2008 Dem primary popular vote than people think – as shown by your shock at my post. Wiki have her as winning the popular vote. RCP has her winning in one scenario and Obama only very slightly ahead (effectively a tie) in the other. And in context of the conversation about winning certain demographics – my claim is not misleading at all but rather a very pertinent, interesting and rarely known (or remembered) fact.

    You are welcome.

  22. This supposed war between the RW newspaper barons and the current RW government is essentially about one bunch of crooks facing off against another bunch of crooks.

    The only beneficiaries from blacking out newspaper pages are the suppliers of ink.

  23. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Monday, October 21, 2019 at 1:21 pm

    The link to the Canadian election didn’t work (503 error message)

    ——————————————————
    I got to the site both times when I clicked on the link in my original post and Bellwether’s.

  24. Bonza @ #167 Monday, October 21st, 2019 – 1:20 pm

    Bellwether
    And as Moore said on the weekend, the election should be about defeating ‘that which gave us Trump’. Now that Biden is slipping to second/third place, I don’t know if he has a comeback in him

    I think you’re right about Biden, he’s most likely done his dash and, rightly or wrongly, will be tainted by allegations against his son. Plus he has nowhere near the war chest of, say, Sanders or Warren.

  25. I’ll give you a shovel SK: keep digging

    I showed you facts, two published headline numbers showing she won and one showing a tie, you spun like a Morrison – footnotes, crossed fingers and all. Thanks for the shovel, I gave you a fist full of facts and you knocked yourself out.

  26. Mexicanbeemer @ #160 Monday, October 21st, 2019 – 1:11 pm

    Elizabeth Warren is a high risk candidate, she excites lefties/progressives but US politics is different because its culture is different. Most western countries were founded as nation states so are quite comfortable with the idea of a strong state but America was founded on different principles. Elizabeth Warren might be competitive but unless there is a shape decline in the US economy then the chances are Trump would be returned.

    Mind you, Trump is getting around nowadays like a Spanish bull with half a dozen banderillas hanging out of his neck and awaiting the final blow from the matador.

  27. Hanson’s superior intellect shines through…

    A defiant Pauline Hanson has maintained coral bleaching is a natural occurrence, in an exchange with the chief scientist of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority.

    (Canberra Times headline)

  28. For some PB commenters, there is minimal overlap between (a) “What I think America needs” and (b) “What most Americans think America needs”. Sanders falls squarely into (a). We need more polling to determine how well Warren and Biden might fare. I’m not convinced Warren can beat Trump, for the exact same reasons as Mexicanbeemer 1:11 pm.

  29. citizen

    She’s a little terrier when she thinks she knows what she’s talking about!

    Dr Wachenfeld explained that corals live in a variety of water temperatures over the world, with substantial differences even within the Great Barrier Reef.

    Corals bleach when stressed – such as when exposed to warmer than normal temperatures – and die if stressed for prolonged periods, he told the senator.

    “The fact that corals in Indonesia could withstand higher temperatures than corals on the central Great Barrier Reef is of no benefit to the corals of the central Great Barrier Reef when they die.”

    But Senator Hanson was not swayed

  31. lizzie says:
    Monday, October 21, 2019 at 1:58 pm

    ‘But Senator Hanson was not swayed’

    Hanson is the genuine article: thick as two planks.

  34. The Hong Kong anschluss pends.

    Samoa bought and paid for?

    But the Greens insist that nothing has changed in our security environment. Preparations for the Greens Kurdish model ADF ‘Light Mobile Force’ persist.

    It was well-meaning Peace and Friendship people just like the Greens who sent hapless Australian pilots up in Brewster Buffaloes to take on the Zeroes.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-21/china-and-samoa-ink-deals-ahead-of-pacific-island-economic-forum/11622096

  35. Two quick critiques by journos.

    Katharine Murphy
    @murpharoo
    2m
    Pretty amazing that the prime minister’s department don’t know who Scott Morrison told Donald Trump was the Australian point of contact for the Barr inquiry #auspol

    ***
    Michelle Grattan
    @michellegrattan
    2m
    Scott says media prosecutions shd not be on the whim of politicians. Porter said he would make the final decision

  37. Boerwar

    I rather like the Mr Twisty name.

    However, I am increasingly annoyed by the Morrison/Frydenberg assertion that Labor was going to impose xxx billion extra taxes if they won.

  38. Question time:

    Government member: “can the Minister inform the House what a wonderful job he’s doing”

    Minister: “bather blather blather…”

    Opposition member: “can the Minister explain…”

    Minister: “Bather blather blather (on unrelated topic), attacks Labor, blather blatger blather…”.

    Complete waste of time.

  39. From the SMH article on the new Parramatta-CBD Metro:

    “This crucial project will reduce the journey between Parramatta and the city to around 20 minutes with trains running every two minutes,” she said.

    The travel time for a journey from the CBD to Olympic Park will be 14 minutes.

    … which begs the question as to why the CBD is being stuffed full of (literally now) millions of inhabitants and workers.

    Sydney is not Manhattan. You do wonder why NSW is spending billions trying to make it so.

    Wouldn’t have anything at all to do with donor mates building the freeways and metros that ferry the proletariat to their office jobs in towers owned by other donor mates, of course.

    Like spending $60 million on knocking down a few Bridge toll kiosks to shorten the York St. traffic gridlock by 5 seconds didn’t.

  42. “ I gave you a fist full of facts and you knocked yourself out.”

    Wow, those ‘fist full of facts’ actually establish that your claim was actually misleading: four states didn’t give the numbers for the popular vote and of those that did, Clinton ended up ‘winning’ because every other candidate took their name off the ballot in Michigan because the state Democrat machine broke party rules, so the ‘primary’ was a nullity: – take Clinton’s ‘win’ from Michigan out of the count and Obama won the popular vote, for what it’s worth…

    Have I missed anything?

    Anyway, this is a minor kurfuffle.
    Nothing worth ‘arguing about’, surely …

    Peace and Love KJ. Peace and love.

  43. Anyway, this is a minor kurfuffle.
    Nothing worth ‘arguing about’, surely …

    Don’t give me that, you snotty faced heap of parrot droppings!

  45. Malcolm Farr @farrm51
    ·
    5m
    DPM McCormack calls Labor’s Catherine King “the chief rorter”. Then withdraws it when asked.
    Strange outburst by him.

  46. Mundo @12.04
    You have never met Morrison yourself as your assessment is somewhat askew.
    Morrison is a slow moving bus waiting for the brakes to fail.
    To overestimate him is to blunder large.

  47. lizzie:

    ‘Strange outburst by him.’

    Indicative of the pressure he’s under by core constituents over piss-weak drought assistance measures.

  50. “ You will have to forgive me you vacuous, toffee-nosed, malodorous pervert.”

    Steady on. I resemble that comment.

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