Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

No change at all on voting intention in the latest Newspoll, which records a mixed bag of movements on the leaders’ personal ratings.

The Australian reports absolutely no change on voting intention in the latest Newspoll, which is now appearing predictably on a three-weekly schedule. The Coalition continues to lead 51-49 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 42%, Labor 33%, Greens 13% (maintaining a four-year high) and One Nation 6%. Scott Morrison is steady on 47% approval and up two on disapproval to 45%, while Anthony Albanese’s ratings continue to yo-yo, with approval down two to 37% and disapproval up four to 44%. Despite that, Morrison’s lead as preferred minister is now at 47-32, narrowing from 50-31. The field work period was presumably Thursday to Sunday, and the sample presumably between 1600 and 1700. UPDATE: The sample was 1634, consisting of 953 online and 681 automated phone poll surveys, the latter breakdown still being the only concession offered to greater transparency since the election.

Note also below this post Adrian Beaumont’s latest on Brexit and Canada.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,139 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 21 of 23
1 … 20 21 22 23

  1. Kakaru

    Like or hate him. It’s very clear Labour MP’s have joined the Tories in attacking Corbyn’s leadership.

    Despite that. Even with a terror attack and fence sitting on Brexit he still managed to reduce the Tories from a majority to a minority.

    Now Boris humiliated is begging Labour to call an election because Johnson can’t govern.

    Get Real

  5. Mavis says: Thursday, October 24, 2019 at 4:07 pm

    lizzie

    Noted. I don’t think much of Smith either. But I guess he’s better than Bronnie – but that ain’t hard.

    ***************************************************

    Mavis – In my lifetime – by miles – the best speaker was the ‘disgraced’ Peter Slipper

    From Wiki :

    Upon his election as Speaker, Slipper moved to restore various traditions of the office of Speaker. Most notably, Slipper took to wearing the traditional gown and bar jacket over his business attire. He also moved to reinstate the longer and more formal Speaker’s procession into the House involving the Serjeant-at-Arms and the Mace, something that hadn’t been seen in three decades. During his first formal procession into parliament, Slipper wore a gown, bar jacket, and a white bow tie with white bands. Slipper soon established a no-nonsense reputation; during his first Question Time, he expelled four of his former Coalition colleagues without warning.

  6. Did anyone ask why the federal government is rooting around on the City of Sydney website looking for dirt to attack a local government councillor?
    Seems a long way from their turf.
    Surely our Glad isn’t looking for dirt.

  7. “Despite that. Even with a terror attack and fence sitting on Brexit he still managed to reduce the Tories from a majority to a minority. ”

    Against Theresa May.

  10. The Blairites are repelling voters with their authoritarian behaviour. Boris can’t believe his luck.
    _________________________________

    Of course they are. Anywhere you go in the Labour strongholds throughout the UK you hear nothing but emotional outpourings by the common folk about the Blairites.

  12. @RI

    Ever since the Brexit referendum people in Britain have becoming increasingly radical on the the issue of Brexit. With Brexiter’s now often favouring a ‘No Deal’ Brexit and Remainers recently increasingly favouring revoking Article 50.

  13. Aqualung

    You’ll be happy to know that you have been ‘franchised’ and not ‘privatised’.

    What a load of BS!

    The NSW transport minister has denied the Berejiklian government is breaking an election pledge by privatising the remaining state-owned bus routes, arguing the shake-up is actually a “franchising”. (Canberra Times headline)

  16. Tristo says: Thursday, October 24, 2019 at 4:38 pm

    @RI

    Ever since the Brexit referendum people in Britain have becoming increasingly radical on the the issue of Brexit. With Brexiter’s now often favouring a ‘No Deal’ Brexit and Remainers recently increasingly favouring revoking Article 50.

    **********************************************************

    Many years ago Oscar Wilde wrote : To disagree with three-fourths of the British public is one of the first requisites of sanity.

  17. The Taylor motion:

    [‘Tony Burke:

    We need to know whether the forgery was tailor-made, because it looks exactly like that.

    Labor calls for police investigation into Angus Taylor

    The motion in full.

    [‘I seek leave to move the following motion –

    that the House:

    notes:

    the Prime Minister’s statement in the House on Monday this week that ‘Whether they’re politicians, journalists, public officials, anyone — there is no one in this country who is above the law’;

    the reported provision of a forged document to the Daily Telegraph by the Minister for Emissions Reduction in an attempt to influence the public duty of the lord mayor of Sydney;

    the creation and/or knowing use of a forged document in attempt to influence a public duty is a serious indictable offence under New South Wales law punishable by up to 10 years in prison;

    the failure to report knowledge of a serious indictable offence is also an offence under NSW law punishable by up to two years in prison;

    the Minister for Emissions Reduction has failed to explain his role in, or knowledge of, the creation and/or use of a forged document used in an attempt to influence the public duty of the lord mayor of Sydney; and the minister has refused to give straight answers to simple questions about these crimes, as if the public has no right to know; and

    having regard to the foregoing, calls on the prime minister to ask the NSW Police to investigate whether the Minister for Emissions Reduction has committed a crime.”]

  18. Tristo….you should consult a dictionary as to the meaning of the word ‘radical’.

    Brexit has driven a stake through the heart of radical opinion.

  19. phoenixRED:

    [‘Mavis – In my lifetime – by miles – the best speaker was the ‘disgraced’ Peter Slipper’]

    Agree, and although he had an axe to grind, he was fair to the core.

  20. citizen, the private operators tell the government they can save them squillions and make a profit. I believe TSA have discovered it’s one thing to make a claim it’s another to deliver. In other words they are not making money hence the attack on wages and conditions.

  22. C@tmomma:

    [‘Honestly, ‘Pretty Boy’ Taylor thought he got away with #Watergate and so he was Teflon-coated. He didn’t count on coming up against Clover Moore. ‘]

    He should’ve gone long ago. Let’s hope this will bring the lying p…k down.

  26. Queen Victoria
    @Vic_Rollison

    Clover Moore is reported to have questioned the figures with the Tele – in other words, she told them they were bullshit, and yet Daily Tele went ahead and made a news story out of them anyway. Good insight into what goes on at Murdoch media.

  28. Tristo @ #1012 Thursday, October 24th, 2019 – 3:38 pm

    Ever since the Brexit referendum people in Britain have becoming increasingly radical on the the issue of Brexit. With Brexiter’s now often favouring a ‘No Deal’ Brexit and Remainers recently increasingly favouring revoking Article 50.

    Except there’s nothing particularly radical about revoking Article 50. The status-quo is good the best anyone can get short of actually solving all the problems that having a Brexit won’t.

  29. Johnson and his team are hedging on the election. Will they? Won’t they?

    It is incredible that the oldest and most successful political party in any democracy polls just 35% against the most incompetent, divided and ineffectual set of opposition parties known in UK history. It is also extraordinary that the so-called Unionist party is willing to effectively cede part of the UK’s territory to the EU/Ireland with almost no consideration of this in the Parliament.

    It is also well worth noting that in Scotland, the birthplace of UK Labour, Labour is almost extinct as an audible political voice while in the UK as a whole, Labour polls less than 1/4 of the electorate.

    The political parties have really totally failed to adapt to the changes in social and political order, and have fallen for nostalgia. They are almost irrelevant to the needs of the times.

  30. AR

    That’s why Corbyn will do better next time. His position is put whatever parliament comes up with back to the people.

    It’s the only sensible way to join the leave and remain Labour voters together. It may even get the Lib Dems voters.

    This leaves Corbyn free to campaign against austerity and to fence sit.
    That’s if Brexit is still in limbo before the General election.

    Edit: Note I would prefer Labour to be a full on Remain party.

  31. lizzie @ #1027 Thursday, October 24th, 2019 – 4:55 pm

    Nine people have been found alive in the back of a truck on a British motorway, just hours after the discovery of 39 bodies inside a semi-trailer in Essex.

    The nine survivors were found in the back of a truck on the M20 motorway in Kent on Wednesday.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2019/10/24/nine-alive-britain-truck/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PM%20Extra%20-%2020191024

    You could probably find them every day of the week on the highways and byways of Britain. Funny how that’s why people voted for Brexit, to keep the furriners out, but they’ll keep on coming because Capital wants cheap labour and there’s always someone who’s willing to make a buck out of supplying it. Plus someone who can make more in a 1st World country, even at reduced rates, than they can in their own 3rd World country. Plus the toffs who push Brexit want to destroy environmental and worker regulations so that they can openly pay people in Britain less and the dumb clucks who voted for Brexit will be forced into the same corner that workers here have been forced into, where it’s a take it or leave it job proposition because if you don’t take it there’s one of those imported workers ready and willing to do the job for the lower rate.

  32. Labor and Greens should start using the word “austerity“ in their attacks against the LNP along with their pointed attacks on the lack of empathy I have seen on twitter.

  33. Whacko! The lawless Trump brought low by the law:

    New York: A US federal judge has stepped in where House Democrats have been unsuccessful so far, to gain access to records relating to Donald Trump’s dealings with Ukraine.

    District of Columbia Judge Christopher Cooper ordered the State Department to turn over Ukraine-related records – including communications between Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and President Donald Trump’s personal attorney, Rudy Giuliani.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/us-judge-orders-release-of-trump-s-records-dealings-with-ukraine-20191024-p533yv.html

  34. Paddy Manning dumps a bucket on Angus ‘Pretty Boy’ Taylor, and Scott Morrison:

    How much longer can Angus Taylor keep his job? The minister for energy and emissions reduction is a scandal-magnet who now stands at the centre of accusations of criminal conduct, which Labor said in Question Time today should be investigated by the NSW police. Guardian Australia’s revelation that the minister made claims regarding the travel expenses of Sydney Lord Mayor Clover Moore on the basis of a doctored document, which his office provided to The Daily Telegraph, is extremely damaging for the government. Taylor flatly denied allegations of forgery in the House today, and refused any demands for evidence he and his office had nothing wrong. His answers beggared belief.

    If Taylor avoids accountability for another scandal, it cements the impression that the hapless minister is above the law, protected by the prime minister himself. Taylor survived by the skin of his teeth today, as the government was forced to use its numbers to shut down debate before the House rose for another month off. But the pressure on Taylor will continue to rise until the public finds out: where did the fake document come from?

    Never mind, for the moment, that Taylor is the minister for energy and emissions reduction on whose watch both electricity prices and greenhouse gas emission have gone up. Never mind that he is the subject of a burgeoning controversy over the illegal clearing of protected grasslands by private company Jam Land, or that his explanation as to why he had a meeting with compliance officials from the environment department is still unravelling. Never mind that Taylor was implicated in the watergate scandal over an $80-million publicly funded water buyback from a private firm, Eastern Australia Agriculture, of which he was once a director and which is a wholly owned subsidiary of a Cayman Islands–based entity. Hell, never mind that Taylor habitually misleads the public about his government’s track record on climate action – the ABC called him a fact-check zombie today for repeating a false claim that won’t die about a supposed billion-tonne emissions turnaround – or how Australia is going to meet its Paris goals for 2030 down to the last tonne. Never mind the many train-wreck interviews. Never mind, in short, that Angus Taylor so far has proved to be an accident-prone, completely ineffective minister and a liability for the Morrison government.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2019/24/2019/1571892642/taylor-made

  35. The polls clearly show that the only way Labour will win the next election is if Corbyn goes. He will be gone anyway after yhe election so his best path is to go the same way Hayden did.

  36. I am not sure about pretty boy (not old bald and fat boy doesnt have a ring to it) but he is a white male farmer(ish) so photos of him alongside Clover Moore plays well to the base who wont go much further than the headline about some discrepancy in the travel spending of inner city council hippies.

  37. FredNK

    Trust you to be on the wrong side. Careerists over the base every time with you.

    The new reality is just something the careerists have to understand. Do what the members want or not be in the Labour Party.

    Edit: it’s math. The members have the numbers

  38. uytaur says:
    Thursday, October 24, 2019 at 6:18 pm


    FredNK

    Trust you to be on the wrong side. Careerists over the base every time with you.

    The new reality is just something the careerists have to understand. Do what the members want or not be in the Labour Party.

    Edit: it’s math. The members have the numbers

    And trust you to believe losing an election is a noble goal. The polls say Corbyn as as popular as ham at a Bar mitzvah. The polls also show Labour will lose. Not by a little.

  39. FredNK

    Polls are a snapshot of the past. That’s what they say before the last parliament vote and before we know if and when the EU will grant an extension.

    The DUP probably won’t do well in Northern Ireland.
    So the Tories must have a majority to get anywhere and we just don’t know how those polling numbers are going to change as the public realises how bad Johnson has been. If you just cared about Labour winning you would be hoping for a hard Brexit with the General Election delayed long enough for the Project Yellowhammer predictions to become reality.

    Edit: Reality. Labour has to unite behind Corbyn to stand a chance of winning. The members cast their votes no matter what you think.

  40. guytaur says:
    Thursday, October 24, 2019 at 5:17 pm

    Labor and Greens should….

    ……not be seen in the same sentence.

    The Greens are a Labor-hostile voice. They should be identified as such by Labor.

  41. Well, that was an interesting Drum. All the panellists except the journo were of Asian extraction (I’m not smart enough to know which nationality). It might not be the first time, but I hadn’t seen that before. All excellent contributions, on face recognition and Angus Taylor and the loss of truth in politics.

  45. guytaur
    If Corbyn is leader Labour will lose. No fancy words will change that.

    Corbyn may get his BEXIT, but he will not get his workers paradise because he will not be PM.

  46. FredNK

    You can post those snapshots of the past till the cows come home. It does not change the members rejected the Labour MP’s attempt to oust Corbyn at the recent conference.

    The careerists have to show unity

  47. adrian

    Not sure whether you’re mocking me, but Katie Allen is a newish Liberal MP who always starts off interviews with wtte I’ve only just arrived on the set so I haven’t read it.

  49. lizzie @ #1047 Thursday, October 24th, 2019 – 7:03 pm

    adrian

    Not sure whether you’re mocking me, but Katie Allen is a newish Liberal MP who always starts off interviews with wtte I’ve only just arrived on the set so I haven’t read it.

    No, not at all. Just showing my ignorance after I half heard some ABC reporter on PM try to minimise the Taylor affair.

  50. There is no evidence at all for the supposition that the Tories will incur voter wrath if things go bad after Brexit. The Tories will blame the Remainers, the Parliament, Labour, the EU and “the elite” for any trouble. They will say they have been able to deliver Brexit against every opposition and that they will deliver Britain from the consequences of obstruction and delay too.

    The Brexit party is sitting on 11-12%, a drop of about half from its peak. All the drop has gone to the Tories. The balance support will likely also mainly coalesce as pro-Tory votes if an election is called. In this case, the Tories will gain around 41-42-43% of the vote, more than enough to win a comfortable majority. Labour will be lucky to strike half of that. They could finish behind the Lib-Dems.

    The only respite for Labour will be if there is no election and the Tories bungle their Brexit deal. This is possible…but by far the greatest bungling here has been within Labour, who effectively have no position on the most important matter to affect the UK since WW2.

Comments Page 21 of 23
1 … 20 21 22 23

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *