The fourth Newspoll since the federal election credits the Coalition with a 51-49 two-party lead, unchanged on the last poll three weeks ago, with both major parties down on the primary vote – the Coalition by one to 42%, and Labor by two to 33%. The Greens and One Nation are both up a point, the former to 13% – their best result from Newspoll since 2015 – and the latter to 6%.
Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have deteriorated, either despite or because of his activities in the United States last week, his approval down two to 47% and disapproval up four to 43%. Anthony Albanese has bounced back four on approval to 39% after a six-point drop last time, but the report in The Australian does not relate his disapproval rating (UPDATE: Steady at 40%). Morrison’s preferred prime minister reading goes from 48-28 to 50-31, as respondents apparently becoming more inclined to pick a side.
The poll was presumably conducted as usual from Thursday to Sunday – no sample size is provided, but the norm is around 1600. More to follow.
UPDATE: The sample was 1658, of which 900 came from online surveys and 758 from automated phone polling. Also featured is a question on which relationship Australia should prioritise out of the United States and China, who came in at 56% and 25% respectively. The split was 70-18 among Coalition supporters, 46-32 for Labor, 60-24 among men and 51-26 among women.
At the end of the day the environment is an issue in social justice and economic security for the masses. These values are losing. They’ve been losing non-stop since 1996. This is not going to change. The Liberals are really completely on top of this. They get it. They do understand how to run the issue of environmental disruption in ways that favour them. They have a reactionary agenda. They are using environmental politics to run with that agenda.
PO
A mistake in refereeing a paper would not be enough to get a paper retracted.
Actually FredNK has already given a quick summary of why the paper was retracted – an incorrect error analysis, treating dependent errors as independent errors, leading the authors to underestimate the uncertainties in their results. So, the authors’ conclusion that heat uptake in the oceans is greater than measured by other means is no longer justifiable. However, it still means that heat uptake due to AGW is alarmingly large.
My reason for wanting to poke deeper is that there are now claims being made that the “paper was riddled with errors”, which is just not true.
Also, perhaps a deliberate confusion of formal “errors” on measurement with the more colloquial use of the term error. For this reason some people like to refer to uncertainties in measurement greater than “errors”.
UI – Greens do well? They added .2% from previous election … while the purchased votes of UA +3.4 and ON + 1.8 ….. so did not ‘do well’ IMHO
We have to be honest … the money/advertising speaks to the ‘great unwashed’ (or in our case, the great ‘reluctant to pay attention’)
The reluctant to pay attention will sit up and take notice only when the climate is dire to the point of armageddon and then they’ll say “Why the fuck didn’t our govt do something?”
Tricot…..you are overlooking the fact that the Greens campaign against Labor at all times and in all places. For the Greens, to campaign against Labor is a synonym for campaigning on the environment. They spin off a lot of Labor-hate. They actually spin off more Labor-hate than the Liberals do. They are a hate-manufacturing and distribution outfit.
This is utterly demoralising. It has made the environment a no-go zone in Australian politics. It means the Liberals will go on winning.
Tricot,
European Green Parties are much more central than in Oz.
Douglas and Milko, it should also be said that relentless checking and re-checking and openness is how science works. Everyone makes mistakes (or they wouldn’t be making anything), but science finds and fixes them, and then tells everyone so everyone benefits. That is the core of why science works and should be why it is trustworthy. Uncertainties are reduced and ignorance is pushed back.
jenauthor….the Greens did very well in the Senate election, winning a seat in each State and setting themselves up to hold a stable 12 Senate seats for the foreseeable. Governments are not made in the Senate, but they can be unmade there, as we’ve seen more than once in our political history. The Greens have a permanent bloc of anti-Labor numbers in the Senate. Dream come true for them.
TOFU CONVOY!
Instead of pissing off regional voters so that 30 of 34 of regional electorates in the large states are held by right wing MPs, the Greens have decided to change tactics completely.
This time they have decided that speaking truth to hypocrisy matters.
So they are going to target Greens millionaires for the smug arrogance with which they ignore the lived reality of those in precarious employment.
These Greens millionaires live in concrete and tarmac jungles with virtually no biodiversity left at all.
All the infrastructure for their services, food, clothing, water, energy and shit disappearance, is located IN SOMEBODY ELSE’S BACK YARD.
But that does not stop them telling others that they must make sacrifices for the good of biodiversity for all.
NOT.GOOD.ENOUGH.RICHARD!
D&M
The correct statement is that the oceans are soaking up monstrous amounts of additional energy AND that that particular paper contained statistical errors.
The Doubt Factory is still being subsidized by fossil fuel interests. So it ignores the large relevant fact and focuses on the tiny fact that a single paper contained an error.
We have institutionalised dysfunction in Australian politics. Labor are locked in to a permanent minority – an opposition minority. Even if by some fluke Labor were to win a General Election in the House of Reps, they will inevitably face a Senate that is determined to destroy the Majority in the Reps.
The system we have is broken.
LR,
Yes, very important point, and Player one also alluded to this. One reason I like this blog is that people here are knowledgeable about science, and so we can have sensible conversations about how science progresses, and the difference between dependent and independent errors.
Not surprising for a psephology blog, of course.
I still simmer with anger every time the “Carbon Tax” lies are repeated, especially by a Green, who should know better. Can’t even be bothered to repeat the deliberate mistake by the media and the Libs.
Your anger should be directed at Julia Gillard. She gave permission for it to be called a “Carbon Tax” on the night it was introduced, first interview (by Heather Ewart, 7.30).
I guess she wanted to avoid a semantic shitfight, so just said (in effect) “Call it what you want. You’re going to anyway.”
In Gillard’s own words (interviewed for The Guardian about her then upcoming book)…
“I’ve been honest in the book. You don’t serve three years and three days as prime minister and be someone in your early 50s without some sense of regret. The one that was the most damaging was the error in the terminology – conceding and not contesting the terminology of “carbon tax”.
Love her or not, this was Gillard’s personal assessment of her most damaging blunder.
Our media is obsessed with gotchas. A gotcha overrides even the obvious truth. A slip of the tongue, a poor choice of words, a reckless promise made to shut down a distracting line of questioning are elevated to the level of Holy Writ, quoted and requoted to infinite extent (“There will be no Carbon Tax etc.” was even quoted here, this morning, up-thread).
Otherwise competent journalists decided to render the policy’s actual outcome irrelevant, when compared to the cheap thrill of endlessly replaying an embarrassing gaffe made during a TV interview that hardly anyone watched at the time of its original broadcast. Even though the policy demonstrably worked, and worked well, it didn’t matter. The planet can go to Hell if it gets between a gotcha and an Australian journalist.
They all joined in the kicking, sniggering and bollocking. Every last one of them, from “quality senior writer” to “press pack ambulance chaser”. Gillard gave them permission to do so by failing to recognize that political coverage here rarely rises above slapstick schoolyard playground level.
P1
This isn’t true. The electorate has voted against climate action in three successive federal elections.
The Greens never do well in elections.
If they DID do well they would have formed a government in their own right some time during the past thirty years.
By 2040 at the earliest on current trends they might form a government. I doubt it. But stranger things have happened.
But, by then, if you listen to the Greens, it will be far too late.
So, obviously, the Greens never do well in elections.
Douglas and Milko @ #152 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 10:55 am
I meant that the IPCC had referenced the retracted paper instead of another paper by the same authors.
https://retractionwatch.com/2019/09/27/did-the-ipccs-new-oceans-report-mean-to-cite-a-now-retracted-paper/
One reason I like this blog is that people here are knowledgeable about science, and so we can have sensible conversations about how science progresses, and the difference between dependent and independent errors.
And one reason why Morrison & Co. have started a project to discourage teens from going to Uni., because the ignorant are more pliable.
There is nobody in the parliamentary ALP who is capable of changing the party’s course for the better. The best way to break the logjam is to open up all Labor pre-selections to all enrolled voters. Primaries would offer the prospect of renewal.
Late Riser,
Scott Morrison is probably in awe of Bjelke-Petersen, in the same way he hero worships Howard.
Jolyon Wagg says:
Monday, September 30, 2019 at 11:13 am
P1
And there is already “broad acceptance” in the electorate that climate action is necessary.
This isn’t true. The electorate has voted against climate action in three successive federal elections.
I think it’s worse than that. Voters know that climate change is real and that it is a threat to their well-being. But rather than vote for a party that might try to forestall climate change, instead they vote for the party that promises to place voters’ personal financial/economic interests ahead of the wider/common financial/economic interest.
The Liberals are very very good at encouraging voters to put themselves first and to put larger interests second.
Effectively, the Liberals can persuade voters that ‘even though more should be done, as little as possible’ is acceptable. The Liberals are very good at doing nothing while being seen to do something. This is an art form they have developed over the last century. Voters like it.
‘Nicholas says:
Monday, September 30, 2019 at 11:17 am
The essential thing is to have controlled rent…’
Rent control creates two classes of renters. The first is the existing class. The second is the new renters moving in. The first do well. The latter get screwed by the inevitable shortages as investors move out of the market.
Rick WilsonVerified account @TheRickWilson
Rick Wilson Retweeted Donald J. Trump
It’s funny you mention that. I feel the same way about you.
Donald J. TrumpVerified account @realDonaldTrump
His lies were made in perhaps the most blatant and sinister manner ever seen in the great Chamber. He wrote down and read terrible things, then said it was from the mouth of the President of the United States. I want Schiff questioned at the highest level for Fraud & Treason…..
Rick Wilson added,
Dear Republican friends: he’s lost it, and you know it.
And every single one of you stupid badtards who pretended to love him and embraced his crapulous regime will pay the price with your reputations until the end of time.
# ETTD
There is broad acceptance that global warming is already having bad consequences, that the consequences are going to get worse (in some vague linear way) and that everyone else ought to pay to stop it before it is too late.
Trump impeached? Iran had better watch its step.
C@tmomma @ #168 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 11:18 am
Yeah. My problem with the analogy is that Bjelke-Petersen was in control for a long time before the corruption got too big to hide. Bjelke-Petersen knew how to “feed the chooks” and Morrison does too.
Former Republican Party chair says Trump is ‘wetting his pants’ over whistleblower in latest tweets
Trump went off on another rant against the whistleblower, saying that he wants to meet the person spreading lies about him.
“What is this barrage of tweets just in the last couple of minutes with the president referring to the whistleblower in that language and saying he wants to meet his accuser, saying the person who gave him the information was a possible spy?”
“That’s the president wetting his pants a little bit,” Steele quipped. “This has him a little nervous. There’s real concern here
“This is not this great mystery of ‘who done it,’ ‘who did it’ and when and all this,” said Steele. “This is just a straight-up, the president having a conversation, this is who he had it with, this is who he talked about and that’s the problem. And so the president now, recognizing that his own administration started this by putting out a documents they thought was innocuous and unimportant, turned out to be a very important document sort of set in motion where we are now, and that’s been affirmed by the documents that we have subsequent from the whistleblower himself or herself that states very clearly and corroborates what’s already in the president’s memo. So, this is the president in a little bit of a panic here. The flashing tweets that keep coming out is his way of trying to get control of something that he’s losing a grip on.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/09/former-republican-party-chair-says-trump-is-wetting-his-pants-over-whistleblower-in-latest-tweets/
Nicholas says:
Monday, September 30, 2019 at 11:17 am
I doubt the Commonwealth has any power that would allow it to control rents.
We have a very conservative Constitution. To the extent that it’s not implacably conservative, this is because Labor managed to obtain some Amendments during WW2 or because the HC has construed the Constitution in ways that have favoured Commonwealth power.
Sadly. There will be no more amendments to the Constitution until Labor regains office again. This is most unlikely to occur given the repeated success of its enemies.
Is Trump sane I wonder……… he is certainly all about himself , lacks understanding of what is a conflict of interest is and lies. He is clearly unsuitable for public office.
and is I think amoral
It’s entirely debatable whether Trump is sane or not.
Douglas and Milko
Polls would be a lot more interesting if the data was published along with the methodology used to collect it. As it is they are basically random numbers.
Jolyon Wagg @ #163 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 11:13 am
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/08/australians-overwhelmingly-agree-climate-emergency-is-the-nations-number-one-threat
I think that 60% constitutes “broad acceptance” that action is necessary. The electorate didn’t vote “against” climate action. They voted “against” a party that was clearly divided internally on the issue.
And they will do the same again at the next election.
Nicholas
Primaries give you populists, not politicians.
A populist gives you what you want, no questions asked – a politician (a good one) persuades you that this is what you need, even if you don’t like.
Populism gives you Trump and Boris…and ‘Scomo’.
Democratic CoalitionVerified account @TheDemCoalition
This is gold.
The day before the #Ukrainegate transcripts were released, @ChrisChristie said that it would be impeachable if @realDonaldTrump said “do me a favor, go investigate Joe Biden.”
Trump said exactly that.
Pre-Transcript Release, Chris Christie Argued Trump Was Only in Trouble If He Said Something Like ‘Do Me a Favor…’
Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie proved prescient Wednesday morning on the set of Good Morning America. Just hours before the transcript of a phone call between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was released.
“For instance, if he’s saying, listen, do me a favor, go investigate Joe Biden, that’s one thing,” Christie offered, adding “If he’s saying, listen, I’m concerned about corruption, you’ve just gotten elected. we send hundreds of millions of dollars over there, you need to start looking at this, for instance, one of the things that occurred was the Hunter Biden situation, that becomes totally different.”
Guess what phrase the transcript included?
https://www.mediaite.com/tv/pre-transcript-release-chris-christie-argued-trump-was-only-in-trouble-if-he-said-something-like-do-me-a-favor/
Bushfire
That was the real point, wasn’t it.
P1
‘And they will do the same again at the next election.’
OK, so they’re never going to vote for action on climate change unless the party which promotes it has 100% agreement on the way forward.
Neither major political party in Australia has ever had this, so we might as well throw in the towel now.
P1
…and instead voted for a party stacked with climate-change deniers and a history of blocking any climate action. Sure…that makes sense!
Late Riser @ #174 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 11:27 am
What is interesting is that the ‘favoured mate’ corruption of the Morrison government is plain for all to see, they’re just better at explaining it away than was Bjelke-Petersen.
P1
One MP (@fitzhunter) speaks against a policy and “the whole party is divided”?
Charles Blow explains the only way Republicans will ever be able to redeem themselves
Trump’s “own admission and backed up by the quasi-transcript released by the White House and by the whistle-blower complaint, he abused the power of the presidency to enlist a foreign government to help him politically,” Blow opened his piece.
“No matter how much his defenders squirm — and they certainly are squirming — to justify or diminish that fact, it is nevertheless a fact. He did it,”
“Now, the decision falls to the Republicans in Congress, in the House but particularly in the Senate: On which side of patriotism will history record them? Will they stand for the Constitution and the rule of law or will they stand for partisanship and political expediency?” he asked.
I refuse to believe that the totality of the Republican Party system is corrupt beyond the possibility of contrition, that every single Republican senator would turn their backs on the country,” Blow continued. “Call me naïve. Or, call me hopeful for the future of the country. There must be some patriots, at least a handful, in the Republican Party. There must be some who have the courage — the guts! — to stand up for righteousness, to not look like hacks and hypocrites in the annals of history.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/29/opinion/trump-impeachment.html?emc=rss&partner=rss
See, here we go again regarding the Greens………..”the Greens never do well in elections” is the assertion, but I would call some 1 million or more in PV – as against the 800K National vote “doing well”. Oh that Labor could collar some/all of this million plus voting block! It is not going to happen any time soon.
I get is the fact that the Nationals and their hayseed/narrow-minded mates in the provinces absolutely hate the Greens but why the hostility here?
Dare I say it, but with the Labor vote as dire as it is – and I don’t see a big improvement any time soon. Labor and the Greens might just have to face the fact that alone, neither party can oust the LNP…………..the deck is stacked………….
BB
Good post.
Everyone else that’s why you have to stop saying climate policy failed in this country. It allows the media to continue the myth that the deniers rely on to prevent realistic climate policy.
Praise the Carbon price every presser and talk about it as how the LNP blocks real action on climate change.
Have pride in a policy that worked.
Don’t listen to UI or BW saying the Greens are not Labor’s ally. On this they are. As is Tony Windsor and Rob Oakshott.
This is the big cognitive dissonance that is blocking climate action. Denying success.
Bill Shorten @billshortenmp
2h
Rampant outsourcing, billions slashed, the NDIS needs help #WheresStuart
swamprat @ #182 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 11:39 am
Funny. Johnson has the look of a clever boy who is thoroughly pleased with himself.
Yes, Tricot, the deck IS stacked.
Michael West @MichaelWestBiz
1h
Deborah and other panel members ought to disclose the benefits which they, their trusts and their families derive from franking credits. Inquiry is a nonsense otherwise
phoenixRED @ #190 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 11:51 am
Charles Blow is naïve. Call made.
U.S. politics has always been a nakedly partisan thing.
Tricot
When a Party consistently fails to win government it is consistently failing.
Not consistently doing well.
The core test for ‘doing well’ is if a Party delivers its No 1 outcome.
Arguably, the Greens No 1 outcome is zero net emissions by 2030.
Anyone who thinks that the Greens are going to do well electorally and deliver their No 1 outcome has some significant issues with delusion management.
If 30 years of losses, with at least another 20 years of losses is ‘success’ then…
So, to sum up, there are four structural reasons why Labor is running into difficulties in the regions:
1. Foreign ag and tourism labourers who are cheap and who are being exploited ruthlessly and who do not have the vote. The figures are very rubbery but a reasonable estimate might be there are 500,000 such votes lost to Labor in the regions.
2. Mechanization reducing the regional workforce.
3. Change of status from worker to contractor/sole trader/small businessperson.
4. FIFO workers who vote back in their urbs.
Olga Lautman @olgaNYC1211
Meanwhile top story in Russian media
Prosecutor Lutsenko discussing how he got pressured by Giuliani to get Biden dirt despite telling Giuliani no laws were broken. They seem pissed at trump too
Former Ukraine prosecutor says he saw no evidence of wrongdoing by Biden
KYIV, Ukraine — Ukraine’s former top law enforcement official says he repeatedly rebuffed demands by President Trump’s personal lawyer to investigate Joe Biden and his son, insisting he had seen no evidence of wrongdoing that he could pursue.
In an interview, Yuri Lutsenko said while he was Ukraine’s prosecutor general he told Rudolph W. Giuliani that he would be happy to cooperate if the FBI or other U.S. authorities began their own investigation of the former vice president and his son Hunter but insisted they had not broken any Ukrainian laws to his knowledge.
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2019-09-29/former-ukraine-prosecutor-says-no-wrongdoing-biden
https://www.theage.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/former-labor-party-boss-noah-carroll-lands-kpmg-gig-20190930-p52w61.html
“The adoption of the Green carbon tax by Julia Gillard was politically very costly for Labor. It led to the election of Abbott.”
***
LOL! You may have conveniently forgotten the reason why Abbott was gifted power but the rest of the country certainly hasn’t.