Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

The fourth Newspoll since its wrong call at the election continues to credit the Coalition with only a modest lead on two-party preferred, with the minor parties continue to lift and Scott Morrison recording the opposite of a US visit bounce.

The fourth Newspoll since the federal election credits the Coalition with a 51-49 two-party lead, unchanged on the last poll three weeks ago, with both major parties down on the primary vote – the Coalition by one to 42%, and Labor by two to 33%. The Greens and One Nation are both up a point, the former to 13% – their best result from Newspoll since 2015 – and the latter to 6%.

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have deteriorated, either despite or because of his activities in the United States last week, his approval down two to 47% and disapproval up four to 43%. Anthony Albanese has bounced back four on approval to 39% after a six-point drop last time, but the report in The Australian does not relate his disapproval rating (UPDATE: Steady at 40%). Morrison’s preferred prime minister reading goes from 48-28 to 50-31, as respondents apparently becoming more inclined to pick a side.

The poll was presumably conducted as usual from Thursday to Sunday – no sample size is provided, but the norm is around 1600. More to follow.

UPDATE: The sample was 1658, of which 900 came from online surveys and 758 from automated phone polling. Also featured is a question on which relationship Australia should prioritise out of the United States and China, who came in at 56% and 25% respectively. The split was 70-18 among Coalition supporters, 46-32 for Labor, 60-24 among men and 51-26 among women.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,439 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

  1. Jetstar to Japan sounds like a living hell.

    You prefer the Southern Ocean?
    AirAsia to Medan wasnt pretty. But nothing beats Uzbek Airlines FRU to TAS where some seat backs were missing, the odd oxygen mask was seen dangling, the smell of urine pervaded the space and a strangely coloured smoke wafted through the cabin like Eeyores cloud.

    After that I cancelled my Dushanbe to Korog flight where the wings of the plane are said to disturb the snow from the adjacent cliffs as the plane takes a circuitous path in a pointless attempt to reduce the risk of errant Taliban missiles.

  2. Poliphilli….cheers. The new platform should be published any day now. As soon as it is I will either post a link or paste the text….the proceedings of Conference all have to be proofed and published in one go.

    All the best.. 🙂

  3. Gladys Liu and Josh Frydenberg have admitted that controversial Chinese-language signs instructed voters that the “correct” or “right” way to vote was to put a 1 next to the Liberal party candidate on ballot papers in the Victorian seats of Chisholm and Kooyong.

    In their responses to challenges against their election the Liberal MP and the treasurer claim the Liberal party’s acting Victorian director, Simon Frost, “intended” the signs to say “to make your vote count put a 1 next to the Liberal candidate” but admit the translation meant “correct way to vote”, “correct voting method” or “the right way to vote”.

    A retired social worker and climate campaigner, Naomi Leslie Hall, and the unsuccessful independent candidate for Kooyong, Oliver Yates, have brought the challenges to the election of Liu and Frydenberg, arguing the signs infringed electoral law provisions banning conduct that “misleads or deceives an elector in relation to the casting of a vote”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/02/gladys-liu-and-josh-frydenberg-admit-chinese-election-signs-instructed-right-way-to-vote

  4. Dr. Dena Grayson
    @DrDenaGrayson
    ·
    1m
    Total #coverup. If Team Trump has “done nothing wrong,” WHY ARE THEY LYING AND TRYING TO HIDE THE TRUTH⁉️

    #Ukrainegate
    #ImpeachTrump
    Quote Tweet

    Zoe Tillman
    @ZoeTillman
    · 6h
    NEW: A watchdog group asked a judge to issue an emergency order that the Trump admin preserve records of calls with foreign leaders. At a hearing today, DOJ wouldn’t immediately make a voluntary assurance to keep the status quo, to the judge’s puzzlement https://buzzfeednews.com/article/zoetillman/trump-lawsuit-call-records-foreign-leaders-impeachment
    Show this thread

  5. WOW!!!

    Gladys Liu and Josh Frydenberg have admitted that controversial Chinese-language signs instructed voters that the “correct” or “right” way to vote was to put a 1 next to the Liberal party candidate on ballot papers in the Victorian seats of Chisholm and Kooyong.

    Josh Frydenburg will be back but Gladys Liu will be gawn at the By-Elections which will now likely need to be held!

    (I admit I’m getting ahead of myself here. 😀 )

  6. Those challenges in Chisholm and Kooyong should have been a lay-down misere from the beginning. It’s not a technicality. It’s bleeding obvious those signs were designed to mislead voters whose English language skills and possible unfamiliarity with democratic processes makes them vulnerable targets.

  7. I assume a by election would have to happen and that its likely Liu could lose. Frydenberg I am not so sure on. Hopefully Labor Greens and Independent can agree on the candidate.

    I don’t care who wins as long as we get change. Then we can have real action on climate change with a carbon price and the policies of Bill Shorten. The question is should Mr Shorten return as it means he was successful as leader?

  8. What surprises me about the Chisholm signs in Chinese is that Labor, who also had a Chinese-Australian candidate, didn’t bring the case that Oliver Yates did, or complain to the AEC earlier.

  9. Let’s all raise our glasses in a birthday toast to one of the most decent and thoughtful United States Presidents. Jimmy Carter is 95 today (Tuesday North American time).

    History has been unkind to Carter because of the Iran hostage crisis. If the present incumbent of the White House had been there then he probably would have nuked Teheran.

    Few former Presidents have shown greater social awareness after leaving office than Carter. He and wife Rosalynn worked as volunteers with Habitat for Humanity, a Georgia-based philanthropy that helps low-income working people around the world to build and buy their own homes and access clean water.

    There have been suggestions that the senile clown Reagan and his campaign team used the hostages as political pawns in order to help them win the 1980 Presidential election and prevent a second Carter term.

    From Wikipedia:

    “One of the leading national issues during 1980 was the release of 52 Americans being held hostage in Iran since November 4, 1979.

    “Reagan won the election. On the day of his inauguration—in fact, 20 minutes after he concluded his inaugural address—the Islamic Republic of Iran announced the release of the hostages.

    “The timing gave rise to an allegation that representatives of Reagan’s presidential campaign had conspired with Iran to delay the release until after the election to thwart President Carter from pulling off an “October surprise”.

    “According to the allegation, the Reagan Administration subsequently rewarded Iran for its participation in the plot by supplying Iran with weapons via Israel and by unblocking Iranian government monetary assets in U.S. banks.

    “After twelve years of varying media attention, both houses of the U.S. Congress held separate inquiries and concluded that the allegations lacked supporting documentation.

    “Nevertheless, several individuals—most notably former Iranian President Abulhassan Banisadr, former naval intelligence officer and U.S. National Security Council member Gary Sick, and former Reagan/Bush campaign staffer and White House analyst Barbara Honegger—have stood by the allegation.”

  10. I wonder what effect the current troubles in Hong Kong might have on a Liu candidacy should a by-election be called in Chisholm. Given the revelations about Liu’s China connections since the election, she could have lost support from ex HK residents.

  11. C@t,

    My guess is that the Labor hierarchy thought a challenge would be a waste of time because voters don’t like being forced back to the ballot box on ‘technicalities’ (think section 44).

  12. citizen

    Don’t forget the Trump connections and China attacking Morrison.
    Who would win is interesting as tie Trump to dictatorship and Morrison to Trump bingo.
    You get both the Chinese CCP and Hong Kong voters. Hong Kongers for Freedom and democracy
    Chinese CCP because Morrison has seen great deterioration in the relationship.

  13. Michelle Grattan writes

    The dramatic revelation by the New York Times that Donald Trump pressed Scott Morrison in an early September phone call for help in an exercise of overt presidential politicking does not indicate any Australian Government wrongdoing.

    But it shows how Morrison’s bromance with the President brings its political embarrassments along with all that glitz and warmth.

    Last week the PM got himself caught up in a Trump-created political rally.

    Now he’s on the spot over this (typical) Trump call, which was about US Attorney-General William Barr seeking information for the justice department inquiry that the President hopes will discredit the Mueller probe into Russian interference in the 2016 election.

    A ‘Clinton errand boy’

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-02/donald-trump-mueller-probe-phone-call-messy-for-scott-morrison/11566422

  14. SK

    ‘ But nothing beats Uzbek Airlines FRU to TAS where some seat backs were missing, the odd oxygen mask was seen dangling, the smell of urine pervaded the space and a strangely coloured smoke wafted through the cabin like Eeyores cloud.

    After that I cancelled my Dushanbe to Korog flight where the wings of the plane are said to disturb the snow from the adjacent cliffs as the plane takes a circuitous path in a pointless attempt to reduce the risk of errant Taliban missiles.’

    A classic of the short form traveller’s tale!

  15. SK

    Nah that can’t be right a greenie giving us a Labor government if things work out.
    We know all things green are an enemy to Labor. We keep getting told so day after day. 🙂

  16. I had a thought today, I believe #stopadani represents more than just a movement. It represents a whole vision of what Australia could be as a country, to it’s followers. Because the #stopadani people wear clothing items and even jewelry with #stopadani on it. It reminds me so much of Americans wearing those Make America Great Again Hats. Make American Great Again represents a vision of what it’s followers believe what America should be. For followers of both these movements, wearing articles of clothing and even jewelry signify’s to other people, that they belong to this movement and it’s vision. Of course the visions these movements offer are very different. However the way they utilize their slogan are virtually the same.

  17. I was unaware that cross benchers get more time to ask their questions than opposition MPs.

    It was a concession to allow Bob Katter to possibly finish a question before his time expired.

  18. This one is more “Ugh” than “Wow”. Ann Ruston proves a worthy successor to Mary Jo Fisher.

    ““We can’t just keep on adding money to this bucket, because we’re not making a difference,” she was reported as saying.

    “Giving (people) more money would do absolutely nothing … probably all it would do is give drug dealers more money and give pubs more money.”
    https://indaily.com.au/news/2019/10/02/higher-dole-payments-would-go-to-drug-dealers-pubs-minister/

  19. It was a concession to allow Bob Katter to possibly finish a question before his time expired.

    Reverse effect. It was his concentration span that expired way before his allocated time. From that point on it is like the verbal equivalent of a drunk meandering home in the early morning darkness.

  20. Things are heating up in Washington:

    [‘Congressional Democrats and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo traded threats and accusations, while President Donald Trump questioned whether a leader of the probe should be arrested. Another senior Democrat said Trump should be imprisoned in “solitary confinement.”]

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/impeachment-inquiry-pits-congress-against-white-house-20191002-p52wz4.html

    Trump’s a very worried man, his bravado a sign of desperation.

  21. Socrates @ #1334 Wednesday, October 2nd, 2019 – 2:10 pm

    This one is more “Ugh” than “Wow”. Ann Ruston proves a worthy successor to Mary Jo Fisher.

    ““We can’t just keep on adding money to this bucket, because we’re not making a difference,” she was reported as saying.

    “Giving (people) more money would do absolutely nothing … probably all it would do is give drug dealers more money and give pubs more money.”
    https://indaily.com.au/news/2019/10/02/higher-dole-payments-would-go-to-drug-dealers-pubs-minister/

    What a vile individual that woman is!

  22. Mavis Davis @ #1336 Wednesday, October 2nd, 2019 – 2:40 pm

    Things are heating up in Washington:

    [‘Congressional Democrats and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo traded threats and accusations, while President Donald Trump questioned whether a leader of the probe should be arrested. Another senior Democrat said Trump should be imprisoned in “solitary confinement.”]

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/impeachment-inquiry-pits-congress-against-white-house-20191002-p52wz4.html

    Trump’s a very worried man, his bravado a sign of desperation.

    As is Mike Pompeo.

  23. Jaeger @ #1330 Wednesday, October 2nd, 2019 – 1:50 pm

    I was unaware that cross benchers get more time to ask their questions than opposition MPs.

    It was a concession to possibly allow Bob Katter to finish a question before his time expired.

    I think it’s because they don’t get as many opportunities as the Opposition. So I suggested the Opposition get as long as the Cross Benchers. 😀

  24. David Speers @David_Speers
    · 1h
    I’ll be interviewing Prime Minister @ScottMorrisonMP this afternoon. 4pm AEST on Sky

    I wonder which unicorn he’ll be pointing out today.

  25. Anne Ruston clearly doesn’t hear herself because the whole point of tax cuts is to give people more money it also shows she doesn’t understand that job seeking can be expensive.

    “Ruston has since told media that her remarks were made in the context of addressing individual barriers to employment.”

    This is bizarre and ignorance, to job search probably requires presenting as a well balanced person that isn’t desperate and has been actively attending networking events.

  26. Trump’s a very worried man, his bravado a sign of desperation.

    As is Mike Pompeo.

    Every tried to put a collar on a pet cat and take it for a walk? Try doing it on a feral cat who thinks you are trying to kill it.

    These peeps have no respect for anything but themselves. They will tear down any and every institution and risk all out war protecting the only thing that matters to them. This is page 1 of the 1 page despot manual. This is why you dont elect people like Trump.

  27. C@tmomma:

    [‘What a vile individual that woman is!’]

    Yes, she is, following the party line that the unemployed, those on Newstart spend their meagre benefits on drugs and/or alcohol. I hope the Labor spokesperson soon rebuts her nonsense.

  28. BK,

    What sort of an educationalist is this prick?
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-01/greta-thunberg-attacked-in-coffs-harbour-school-newsletter/11562726

    School Principal Rodney Lynn needs to re-read his Old Testament.
    No doubt someone in Sodom or Gomorrah said something similar to Principal Lynn’s reassuring statement:

    “Do not be afraid. Your world’s future is in the hands of God, not in the predictions of a little girl and false prophets.”

    just before his God carried out his fire and brimstone sentence on those cities.

    Not dissimilar to Greta Thunberg’s warnings, actually.

    edit: added BK’s link

  29. Simon Katich:

    [‘This is why you dont elect people like Trump.’]

    But they did… It’s now time to reverse said mistake. It’s going to be a difficult path but the Democrats have no choice now. Trump’s house of cards will sooner than later collapse due to the disloyalty he’s displayed to nearly everyone who he’s falsely deemed to have been disloyal to him – his support base not much more than his crooked mafia-like family.

  30. Dandy Murray:

    Have a skim of this Fraunhofer report

    I’e said it before (and I’ll say it again, in an attempt to up my insifferability quotient) but AU would be wise to create something like the four German research “societies” (Planck, Heimhloz, Leibniz, Fraunhofer). The CSIRO model is a relic (and being gutted, too)

  31. Yes, she is, following the party line that the unemployed, those on Newstart spend their meagre benefits on drugs and/or alcohol. I hope the Labor spokesperson soon rebuts her nonsense.

    Oh! I thought she was talking about the wasted handouts given to farmers!

  32. Fiona Katauskas
    6m
    Sure, blame the hog but nobody’s talking about how this all could have been prevented if the only the pig’s emotional support boa constrictor had been allowed on the plane in the first place

    The Independent
    @Independent
    · Nov 30, 2014
    Passenger escorted off US flight after 80-pound ’emotional support’ hog is disruptive http://ind.pn/1CrN63s

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