Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

The fourth Newspoll since its wrong call at the election continues to credit the Coalition with only a modest lead on two-party preferred, with the minor parties continue to lift and Scott Morrison recording the opposite of a US visit bounce.

The fourth Newspoll since the federal election credits the Coalition with a 51-49 two-party lead, unchanged on the last poll three weeks ago, with both major parties down on the primary vote – the Coalition by one to 42%, and Labor by two to 33%. The Greens and One Nation are both up a point, the former to 13% – their best result from Newspoll since 2015 – and the latter to 6%.

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have deteriorated, either despite or because of his activities in the United States last week, his approval down two to 47% and disapproval up four to 43%. Anthony Albanese has bounced back four on approval to 39% after a six-point drop last time, but the report in The Australian does not relate his disapproval rating (UPDATE: Steady at 40%). Morrison’s preferred prime minister reading goes from 48-28 to 50-31, as respondents apparently becoming more inclined to pick a side.

The poll was presumably conducted as usual from Thursday to Sunday – no sample size is provided, but the norm is around 1600. More to follow.

UPDATE: The sample was 1658, of which 900 came from online surveys and 758 from automated phone polling. Also featured is a question on which relationship Australia should prioritise out of the United States and China, who came in at 56% and 25% respectively. The split was 70-18 among Coalition supporters, 46-32 for Labor, 60-24 among men and 51-26 among women.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,439 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”


  1. nath says:
    Tuesday, October 1, 2019 at 10:13 pm

    Briefly, who cares if you are right. You are annoying and repetitive. You make me feel like digging for coal and burning it.

    And another round of Labor should because the Greens can’t from Natale?

  2. “The only question that matters is will blocking the Adani mine contribute positively or negatively to the world total quantity of greenhouse gas emissions? ”

    FAIL.

    In the real world you don’t stop something like the Adani mine by playing to the strengths of the enemy, as the Greens did in the lead up to the May election.

  3. “caf @8:17 pm
    Thank you. That identifies a part of the self-selection problem, “differential non-response bias”.”

    Ditto. Interesting info.

  4. “If the development of a cheap substitute for a commodity drives the market price below its production cost, the commodity will stop being produced.”

    That makes perfect economic sense. However, it’s a myth that the Coalition parties are good at things economic.

    The Liberal and National parties have been captured by fossil fuel interests. They’ll support coal whether it makes sense or not. Evidence the War on Renewables, even making a big deal about how ugly wind farms are, how renewables are unreliable. Even if that were true, you’d just keep coal power as a backup while pushing forwards with renewables. Then we have their absurd attacks on electric cars. The War on Renewables will be resumed if things get desparate. Then we’ve got the desparation in getting Adani up, against all economic sense. If no bank will touch it with a barge pole, why would the Australian Government? Quo buono (apart from Adani)?

  5. The rate of growth of PV cell production is still accelerating.

    Last year around 100,000MW were installed

    The year before that (2017) about 90,000MW were installed.

    This year’s forecast is for about 125,000MW of PV capacity to be installed. That’s more than all of Europe’s installed capacity, or more than 10x Australia’s installed PV capacity.

    Huge numbers.

  6. RI @ #1101 Tuesday, October 1st, 2019 – 10:03 pm

    I have an advantage over other bludgers, inasmuch as I have observed at close quarters what happens when a market for a raw material becomes saturated with a competing substitute. The demand falls. The price falls. Supply shrinks. Production declines to the point that it barely exists.

    I have seen it first hand. Prices falling by more than 80% under the influence of pressure from substitutes…falling to such levels that production of the original commodity cannot occur.

    This was driven by investment in substitutes. Remarkable and irresistible.

    You keep making very basic mistakes. The market for renewables will not become “saturated” – at least not of its own accord – for decades yet, if ever. Even your vaunted RenewEconomy acknowledges that. Decades which we simply do not have. Because in those decades we will continue to both burn and export coal. And gas. And oil.

    You also seem to believe that the market for fossil fuels – and also the electricity market – operate according to supply and demand. Nothing could be further from the truth. As I have pointed out to you before, these are amongst the most regulated, subsidized, taxed and gamed markets you could ever hope to imagine. They do not operate purely by supply and demand.

    And you certainly cannot expect an entire industry – with trillions of dollars in potentially stranded assets – to simply say “Oh well, we have been out-competed by solar panels and wind turbines, let’s all just shut down”. This is just mindbogglingly simplistic. They are fighting tooth and nail to keep their industries operating – and they can do so at very much lower rates of profit than they currently receive. Then what happens to your “competing substitutes”? This battle has barely even started yet.

    The world just doesn’t work the way you seem to think it does. Eliminating the use of fossil fuels cannot be done with a “business as usual” approach. At least, not in time to do any good 🙁

  7. You are spot on Steve777, but the hard truth for the fossil fuel companies is that the economics will get them very soon. See my previous post on the flood of PV cells coming to market.

  8. PO

    What you say is relevant. But the question still is what we should do. The answer is we must do things that are effective. We do not have any time or money or energy to spare. The embargo is not merely a distraction. It is a counter-productive campaign the pursuit of which has made things more difficult than they needed to be.

    This is a very serious matter. Nothing proposed by the enemies is serious. They are flagrantly idiotic.

  9. Let’s hope he doesn’t die. He’s conscious and was hit in the shoulder and in an excellent hospital. You just wonder where it will all end up.

    “As protests go on into the night, police senior superintendent Yolanda Yu Hoi-kwan has said the officer that shot an 18-year-old man with a live round did so because he “felt his life was under serious threat”.”

  10. RI @ #1115 Tuesday, October 1st, 2019 – 10:31 pm

    PO

    What you say is relevant. But the question still is what we should do. The answer is we must do things that are effective. We do not have any time or money or energy to spare. The embargo is not merely a distraction. It is a counter-productive campaign the pursuit of which has made things more difficult than they needed to be.

    This is a very serious matter. Nothing proposed by the enemies is serious. They are flagrantly idiotic.

    Your language betrays you – “embargo” … “enemies” … “idiotic”

    Your problem is that think this is primarily a (political? religious?) battle, in which all the goodness and truth is in one camp, and everyone else is idiotic, or an enemy, or out to defeat you.

    This is not the case. You cannot properly prosecute an argument if you believe so. Your logic is all twisted, in order to achieve the outcome you desire.

  11. …have observed at close quarters what happens when a market for a raw material becomes saturated with a competing substitute. The demand falls. The price falls. Supply shrinks. Production declines to the point that it barely exists.

    The Coalition wants Australia to be a Coal Superpower and a quarry to the World. A country that can’t make stuff. To be battered by the winds of supply and demand. When prices are high we have a severe case of Dutch Disease and more productive industries get squeezed out. And when they fall, we’re stuffed. There are lots of dirt poor resource-rich contries with rentier economies, the rents being kept by their elites. We risk joining them.

    Third world here we come.

  12. RI
    says:
    Tuesday, October 1, 2019 at 10:37 pm
    nath says:
    Tuesday, October 1, 2019 at 10:13 pm
    Briefly, who cares if you are right. You are annoying and repetitive. You make me feel like digging for coal and burning it.
    I’m very pleased to hear of it. Insufferable by name. Repetitious by nature. I will send you a shovel.
    __________________________
    If global warming and the end of humanity means the end of briefly then I’m afraid it is a price many will be willing to pay. This is necessary.

  13. RI @ #1120 Tuesday, October 1st, 2019 – 10:41 pm

    The demand in relation to the Galilee is for an embargo. It is made by Labor’s enemies. The demand is idiotic.

    See? If you start by assuming a demand is only being made by your enemies, no wonder you think it is idiotic. But the demand is being made by Labor people as well as Greens. Even by some Liberals. Once you realize that, your whole argument disintegrates.

  14. “News Corp reporting the big four banks have pocketed $550M so far this year by not passing on rate cute cut.”

    Well, they have huge costs compensating the victims of their malfeascance. They couldn’t possibly let profits suffer on that account could they?

  15. I’d guess in the human world that ideas follow demand and supply just as much
    Like the old ALP, do nothing, say nothing, be nothing – demand and interest falls, votes fall, supply of sensible people and policy shrinks

    I guess all those workers in fossil fuels and their communities should just be left to the whims of the market and no concept of energy policy or smart grid network across the country is required. No infrastructure or projects the government could fund, like to restore and build the resilience of the land.
    The magic hand of the market will sort it all out it seems, according to some. The govt has no questions to answer? Money has no influence in politics here. Just keep spruiking how Aussie carbon is so much better for the world than foreign carbon. Nothing to see here.

    Why does it feel like so many of the arguments run here by some seem really likely to turn up as LNP talking points over coming days?

    Some folks are out there trying to account for carbon everywhere to keep the carbon budget on track, even in mangroves and coastal seagrass beds.

    Don’t mind us just digging up this mountain of coal and burning it while you’re all working so hard to try to account for carbon changes in the earth and keeping climate change in check.

    Australia’s vast carbon sink releasing millions of tonnes of CO2 back into atmosphere
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/01/australias-vast-carbon-sink-releasing-millions-of-tonnes-of-co2-back-into-atmosphere

  16. Dandy

    Cool.

    Like the cells for solar batteries are certainly a race.

    I hope we win the race. Best way to replace the coal export market.

    It’s also a reason I don’t begrudge spending money on an Australian Space Industry. That also has huge benefits in manufacturing creation

  17. PV solar is a great technology….flexible, scaleable….capital dense or diffuse…easy to apply….quick pay back…low risk/unit…easy to emulate….accessible by households as well as larger units….commercially unstoppable…this is renewables for the masses….

  18. Quoll….you should read the climate change section in WA Labor’s environment policy chapter. We are on to the things you mention and more besides. We have avoided stunts, headlines and slogans.

  19. IR @ #1096 Tuesday, October 1st, 2019 – 9:52 pm

    ar

    Electricity is not asbestos.

    No, but coal fossil-fuel pretty much is.

    The idea that I was suggesting that people need to stop using electricity is ludicrous, and you know it.

    Although those death stats were interesting. 1400 deaths have been blamed on the Paris heat-wave alone.

    Watermelon @ #1079 Tuesday, October 1st, 2019 – 9:25 pm

    The only question that matters is will blocking the Adani mine contribute positively or negatively to the world total quantity of greenhouse gas emissions?

    Australia can only worry about Australia and Australia’s contribution to emissions. We can’t control “world total” emissions. The question that matters is what’s the best policy for Australia.

    The answer to that should be that we stop using coal for domestic energy production, and stop mining and exporting it for other countries. We should be leading the charge in abandoning fossil fuel, not dragging our feet because a hypothetical “someone else” will just sell the coal if we won’t.

    Not being dictator of the world, Australia can only do what’s right. For Australia.

  20. The answer to that should be that we stop using coal for domestic energy production,

    This is fine and good, and happening. I think we all agree it should happen faster than it is and would if the LNP were not in power.

    … and stop mining and exporting it for other countries. We should be leading the charge in abandoning fossil fuel, not dragging our feet because a hypothetical “someone else” will just sell the coal if we won’t.

    This is less clear cut. These “someone elses” are not hypothetical. They are the USA and Indonesia, to pick two of the big ones. And the short term substitution of our coal with someone else’s would happen.

    What we can do, however, is provide alternatives to coal and technical support implementing these alternatives to our trading partners. We are growing this nascent industry. There are no out-of-the-box solutions yet, but the technical solutions are getting closer, and the economics is already in their favour.

  21. ar

    Not being dictator of the world, Australia can only do what’s right. For Australia.

    This phrase could equally well have been used by a denialist. Global heating is a global challenge. We do not act or live in isolation. The challenge is to act. The political project pursued by the Greens has made action less possible. This is now an historical reality. It cannot be undone very soon, if at all.

    The problem here is defeat. We have been defeated politically, democratically. The question is what to do next.

  22. Steve777…..coal is a crude industrial commodity. Coal suppliers are price-takers most of the time and in most locations. There’s only one dominant form of value-added coal….and that is electricity. If it is not used as a fuel it will barely be used at all.

    This means it’s easier to displace coal from the economy than, say, oil, which has many other applications. The technologies required to displace coal exist and their uptake is accelerating. Because coal-burning is a very low-margin but capital-intense business, it is singularly vulnerable to these competing technologies.

    The easiest way by far to reduce coal burning is to allow/encourage/extend the use of renewable technologies. This is a matter of allowing market access. These technologies do not need to be immediately dominant to render coal uneconomic. If they are deployed at the high points of the marginal revenue curve they will soon eat into the sales derived from coal-driven electricity and repress coal demand. As the supply of electricity increases, the price will decline further and coal will become even more unprofitable. Competitive pressure will close down coal combustion. This has happened in WA, for example.

    It is precisely because of this that the Liberals have tried to obstruct renewables uptake; and likewise why Labor have promoted it. It is because of this that Howard closed down our nascent renewables sector in the 1990s and Abbott tried to rescind the RET. Labor have fought for the renewables industry. But you’d never know it from the way the Greens campaign.

  23. Most of it is being used to prop up passbook interest rates.

    Passbooks? Interest paid on savings?
    When was the last time you visited a bank, GG?

  24. Dandy Murray
    Thanks for the hint re missing money problem.


    From 2012-2017 more than 5000MW of coal plant exited Australia’s National Electricity Market (NEM). The average plant exit notice period was 5.2 months. Exit at scale peaked just as imbalances in the market for natural gas emerged. Compounding matters were Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) plantentry lags due to policy discontinuity in prior periods. By 2016/17, the culmination of coal plant exit, gas market imbalances and VRE entry lags produced more than 20 Lack of Reserve events across the NEM, three blackouts including a black system event in the South Australian region. Spot and forward electricity prices rose to record levels, viz. $90-$130/MWh compared to an historic average of $42.50.In this article, the lead-up to these abnormal trading conditions are traced back to policy decisions a decade earlier in the markets for electricity, natural gas and renewable energy. Lessons for other energy markets undergoing transformation include
    i). transparency over lumpy plant exit decisions,
    ii). climate change policy stability, and
    iii). clear policy limits to gas export capacityvis-à-vis domestic supply.

    https://www.eprg.group.cam.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/1821-Text.pdf

    For this interested in the performance of the eastern market this is a good page.

    https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-dashboard#nem-dispatch-overview

  25. As you would expect, Donald Trump is treating the Impeachment as a campaigning tool (well, he is a tool, so I guess so):

    While the campaign has not been officially designated as the central engine of Trump’s impeachment response, it has sought to take the mantle as the best-equipped to do so, according to a person familiar with the matter. The campaign, which has been operating since the first day of Trump’s presidency, has the manpower and experience to mount a rapid-response effort complete with video content, talking points and campaign ads, said this person.

    The Trump campaign released a television ad Friday that painted Democrats’ impeachment effort as an attempt to “steal” the election. The campaign said it was spending $10 million to air the ad on cable and online.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-amps-up-attacks-on-whistleblower-as-some-republicans-call-for-more-strategic-response-to-impeachment/2019/09/30/4ef4b5b8-e38e-11e9-b403-f738899982d2_story.html


  26. RI says:
    Wednesday, October 2, 2019 at 3:05 am
    ….

    It is precisely because of this that the Liberals have tried to obstruct renewables uptake; and likewise why Labor have promoted it. It is because of this that Howard closed down our nascent renewables sector in the 1990s and Abbott tried to rescind the RET. Labor have fought for the renewables industry. But you’d never know it from the way the Greens campaign.

    The Greens have made renewables a political Graveyard. Unfortunately Labor has to find a way of dealing with this before progress can be made.

  27. Oh, frednk, you’ve started yet another day of The Greens-Labor Climate Change/Renewables/Coal wars.

    *sigh*

    I was trying to avoid it myself.

    I hope you’re happy. You know it drives people nuts, and drives people away from the blog, don’t you?

  28. Anthony Albanese and Labor not muscling up to Scott Morrison and the Coalition, eh, mundo?

    Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese called on Mr Morrison to reveal his commitments to Mr Trump, given the US was Australia’s most important ally.

    “The Prime Minister needs to explain to the Australian people exactly what happened here, exactly what his role has been, what took place in terms of this phone call, so that it is made clear that the Australian Prime Minister is not involved in what is essentially a domestic issue in the United States,” Mr Albanese said.

    “What Scott Morrison can’t do here is do what he’s had a tendency to do in recent times, which is to dismiss questions which are legitimate from the media as just gossip or as just being in the bubble.

    “He needs to actually give some straight answers to what are very clear questions.

    “Scott Morrison needs to explain what happened, who said what to whom, whether any undertakings were made.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/need-some-straight-answers-morrison-facing-questions-over-trump-call-on-russia-probe-20191001-p52wot.html

  29. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    David Crowe and Matthew Knott say that Morrison has questions to answer after his offer to assist a divisive United States inquiry into the FBI after he confirmed a phone call from Trump seeking support.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/need-some-straight-answers-morrison-facing-questions-over-trump-call-on-russia-probe-20191001-p52wot.html
    The SMH editorial takes a dim view of Trump’s request.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/the-risky-charade-of-investigating-australia-s-plot-against-trump-20191001-p52wom.html
    And the AFR reckons everybody is collateral damage in Trump’s domestic battles.
    https://outline.com/3sC3Sy
    Michelle Grattan says, “Another Australian PM finds a phone call with Trump can land you on the sticky paper”.
    https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-another-australian-pm-finds-a-phone-call-with-trump-can-land-you-on-the-sticky-paper-124505
    Crowe thinks Morrison might pay a price for being too close to Trump.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-could-not-refuse-when-donald-trump-called-20191001-p52wiy.html
    Convicted felon and former Trump adviser George Papadopoulos has praised Prime Minister Scott Morrison for his co-operation with the Russia probe, insisting that Alexander Downer was “spying” on him and it was “payback time” reports Sam Maiden.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/10/01/george-papadopoulos-alexander-downer-russia-probe/
    Alexander Downer relayed information to the American chargé d’affaires in London in July 2016 about his now infamous conversation with George Papadopoulos, then a foreign policy adviser to Trump – a move that took the then prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, and senior colleagues by surprise write Katherine Murphy and Sarah Martin.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/01/downers-relaying-of-conversation-with-trump-aide-caught-pm-and-colleagues-by-surprise
    Murphy says Morrison’s words could mean something or nothing – but it’s clear Alexander Downer did the right thing.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/01/scott-morrison-leaves-voters-in-the-dark-as-trump-draws-australia-into-impeachment-insanity
    Sarah Martin writes that the latest Essential poll reveals 70% of Australians think Morrison was wrong to snub UN climate summit.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/02/essential-poll-70-of-australians-think-morrison-was-wrong-to-snub-un-climate-summit
    China’s big military parade had some surprises. Like a new range of ICBMs that can reach the US.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/guns-and-poses-china-s-military-front-and-centre-for-70th-anniversary-parade-20191001-p52woa.html
    As widely expected the big banks are not passing on the interest rate cut.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/big-banks-hold-back-on-rate-cuts-as-rba-worries-grow-20191001-p52wpt.html
    Here’s Jennifer Hewett’s take on the economy.
    https://outline.com/yRhxPe
    0.75% is a record low, but don’t think for a second the Reserve Bank has finished cutting the cash rate says Peter Martin.
    https://theconversation.com/0-75-is-a-record-low-but-dont-think-for-a-second-the-reserve-bank-has-finished-cutting-the-cash-rate-124499
    Shane Wright focuses on Philip Lowe’s references to jobs and wages.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-s-about-the-job-market-stupid-20191001-p52wna.html
    The AFR looks at how small businesses’ ability to get finance has become much worse amid all the confusion over the corporate regulator’s interpretation of responsible lending laws.
    https://outline.com/ZPJeSm
    And Philip Lowe admits the world’s central banks are fighting against a global appetite to save, which is far stronger than the appetite to invest. This presents some tricky choices for savers.
    https://outline.com/auwWdv
    Labor has asked the auditor general to investigate the government’s claimed $7bn in drought assistance, saying the response has been “ad hoc, confusing and lacking in direction”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/01/labor-calls-for-audit-of-governments-claimed-7bn-drought-package
    The NBN Co will have to lift its game or face bigger financial penalties for shoddy work, delays, and connection issues – if the consumer watchdog gets its way. Slugging them is one thing but it won’t fix the FTTN mess!
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/tech/2019/10/01/nbn-co-accc-rebates/
    While media attention has focused on domestic issues, a fundamental rethink is required on how business considers waste writes chemistry professor Thomas Maschmeyer who sees a resource opportunity.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/recycling-is-not-a-waste-problem-it-s-a-resource-opportunity-20190930-p52w8h.html
    The flaws in the Coalition’s religious discrimination bill are “so serious” it cannot be supported in its current form, the Sydney Anglican diocese has warned.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/01/religious-discrimination-bill-so-flawed-it-cannot-be-supported-anglicans-say
    Conservation groups say the latest environmental impact statement (EIS) for the federal government’s Snowy 2.0 project shows work on the site will have dire consequences for land around it.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/10/01/snowy-hydro-2-0-environment-report-criticised/
    Higher petrol costs are back on the agenda, thanks to the recent gyrations in global oil prices caused by an attack on Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure. It’s the “tax hike” consumers didn’t want writes Clancy Yeates.
    https://www.smh.com.au/money/planning-and-budgeting/oil-price-rise-is-the-tax-hike-consumers-didn-t-need-20190927-p52vg5.html
    New research shows almost 40 per cent of first-time buyers were given assistance from their parents or other family to raise deposit, or to act as guarantor for mortgage
    https://www.smh.com.au/money/borrowing/first-time-home-buyers-tap-their-parents-for-help-with-deposit-20190925-p52utk.html
    The furtive financial wizards from Brookfield may soon take $3 billion of retirement village loans to Bermuda, and taxpayer-funded nursing homes too, should their takeover bid for Aveo succeed. Their latest financial statements confirm this is all about buying key Australian assets and funnelling the profits to tax havens. Michael West reports.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/brookfields-aveo-takeover-australias-loss-and-bermudas-gain/
    Someone blew the whistle on Trump – if it happened in Australia we might never hear about it opines Ben Oquist.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/01/someone-blew-the-whistle-on-trump-if-it-happened-in-australia-we-might-never-hear-about-it
    Michaela Whitbourn reports from ICAC on yet more damaging evidence on NSW Labor activities.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/the-s-t-has-hit-the-fan-icac-told-of-secret-meeting-with-former-labor-mp-ernest-wong-20191001-p52why.html
    Amy Remeikis reports that women’s advocacy groups are pressuring the crossbench to reverse support for the latest family court inquiry, with concerns mounting the probe lacks legitimacy.
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/oct/01/womens-groups-urge-crossbench-to-reverse-support-for-hanson-led-family-court-inquiry
    Big Noise Jim Molan has won support from the conservative wing of the NSW Liberals for Arthur Sinodinos’ Senate vacancy, but will face a challenge from moderate candidates.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/molan-wins-backing-of-nsw-liberals-conservatives-for-canberra-return-20191001-p52wol.html
    An independent commission should set the rate of Newstart to end the politicisation of welfare payment rates in Australia, according to a broad group of social service organisations, health groups and charities reports Luke Henriques-Gomes.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/01/newstart-crisis-calls-for-independent-commission-to-set-rate-of-welfare-payments
    While the Coalition’s efforts against unions will diminish their ability to fight for workers’ rights, its anti-wage theft legislation will not stop employers from using wage theft as a business model says William Olson.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/coalitions-workplace-laws-to-diminish-unions-not-wage-theft,13158
    The UK Labour Party wants to abolish private schools – could we do that in Australia wonders Paul Kidson.
    https://theconversation.com/the-uk-labour-party-wants-to-abolish-private-schools-could-we-do-that-in-australia-124271
    In order to safeguard our democracy into the future, a “smart” technological and grassroots approach is needed to shift the balance back from its neoliberal swerve to the right, writes Paul Budde.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/democracy-social-media-and-neoliberalism,13162
    With an amazing display of arrogance and presumptuousness Tony Abbott has told Britons not to worry about the prospect of crashing out of the EU on October 31, telling the Conservative Party conference that a no-deal Brexit is “no big deal”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/no-big-deal-tony-abbott-tells-britons-not-to-worry-about-crashing-out-of-eu-20191002-p52wrg.html
    Meanwhile Abbott will join the high-powered board of the Australian War Memorial in the former prime minister’s first official appointment since his political career ended at the May 18 election. What did we do to deserve this?
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/tony-abbott-appointed-to-board-of-australian-war-memorial-20191001-p52wk1.html
    Trump’s chickens are coming home to roost as US manufacturing dives to a 10-year low on trade tensions.
    https://outline.com/JUYRJb
    Mike Pompeo has fired a broadside at House Democrats, saying State Department officials scheduled to appear this week before committees conducting the impeachment inquiry would not be made available until “we obtain further clarity on these matters.” This is building up for a big, big showdown!
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/pompeo-says-state-department-officials-won-t-show-up-for-impeachment-depositions-20191002-p52wrj.html
    Republicans are flailing as they seek a coherent strategy against Trump’s impeachment.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/oct/01/republicans-trump-impeachment-strategy
    But the very people who supposedly want Trump impeached the most, are the ones paving the way for his 2020 campaign, writes Daniel Safi.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/why-calls-to-impeach-will-probably-boost-trump,13159
    Boris Johnson’s hopes of entering into intensive and decisive Brexit negotiations next week could be dashed after he was sharply criticised in Dublin, Paris and Berlin for signalling plans for the return of a hard border on the island of Ireland.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/01/boris-johnson-plans-for-irish-border-checks-threaten-brexit-talks
    Strong, smart teen girls have had enough. No wonder men like Trump are rattled says Sasha Brown-Worsham.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/01/greta-thunberg-teenage-girls-donald-trump-opinion
    Here is today’s nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/truly-evil-conduct-camouflage-rapist-gets-21-years-20191001-p52wod.html

    Cartoon Corner

    A cracker from David Rowe!

    Nice work from Fiona Katauskas.

    From Matt Golding



    Zanetti just doesn’t get it.

    Glen Le Lievre and a work in progress.

    From Sean Leahy.



    Alan Moir and Johnson’s Brexit countdown.

    Jon Kudelka and Downer’s attire.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/eb8707f83def4eb30a74833eb5f3e0c4?width=1024

    From the US












  30. Morning all. Thanks BK.

    Two obvious question re: the banks and interest rate cuts – 1. if banks employ far fewer staff today (lower costs) how come their margin between borrowing and lending rates is larger now than it was in the sixties? 2. if banks in Europe can keep dropping rates as they approach zero, why can’t they here?

    Answer: our soft touch banking regulation is a dismal policy failure. Banks here are allowed to maintain unacceptably high profit levels, even when times are bad. That is not capitalism.

  31. frednk

    Thanks for the link – Simhauser is a good read. Nice to know that transport infrastructure is not the only area of massive policy failure in Australian engineering. There was an episode of Utopia recently that summed it up nicely. As well as Federal policy, theactions of State governments i.e. Qld and Vic, under both Labor and LNP governments, deserves scrutiny. Some in the bureaucracy are clearly pro-coal. It is their own jobs on the line. No coal power = no coal policy officers.

  32. Thanks BK

    ‘Strong, smart teen girls have had enough. No wonder men like Trump are rattled says Sasha Brown-Worsham.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/01/greta-thunberg-teenage-girls-donald-trump-opinion

    FWIW, it was noticeable in the Foreign Correspondent show last night that the School Strike movement leadership is dominated by teenage girls and (incidentally, IMO) that they are adept at harnessing social media to bypass trad comms. It was also evident that this leadership was not coming from the children of our growing Underclass. Its primary concerns are the concerns of the wealthy.

    The notion that ‘men like Trump’ are ‘rattled’ by Thunberg et al is ludicrous. For one thing, there is only one man like Trump. For another the Koch Bros, women like Rhinehardt, and men like Craig Kelly have not had their hold on power threatened to the least degree. Yet.

    Around 99% of the world’s school children did not go on School Strike.

    There is, IMO, something of an issue with School Strikers misinterpreting the public responses from the fossil fuel interests as demonstrating that the school strikers are powerful. It is at least partly legitimate to read the public responses as standard feeding the base by the right wing commentariat.

    To sum up, the School Strike is a work in progress and the outcome is far from clear.

    In Australia it might add a per cent or two to the Greens vote by energizing segments of the Youf Vote.
    But that will not deliver zero net emissions by 2030.
    It will not stop Adani.
    It will not deliver large scale storage.
    It will not close gas plants.
    It will not stop Australia’s coal exports.

    So, ‘rattled’? Not yet.

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