The fourth Newspoll since the federal election credits the Coalition with a 51-49 two-party lead, unchanged on the last poll three weeks ago, with both major parties down on the primary vote – the Coalition by one to 42%, and Labor by two to 33%. The Greens and One Nation are both up a point, the former to 13% – their best result from Newspoll since 2015 – and the latter to 6%.
Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have deteriorated, either despite or because of his activities in the United States last week, his approval down two to 47% and disapproval up four to 43%. Anthony Albanese has bounced back four on approval to 39% after a six-point drop last time, but the report in The Australian does not relate his disapproval rating (UPDATE: Steady at 40%). Morrison’s preferred prime minister reading goes from 48-28 to 50-31, as respondents apparently becoming more inclined to pick a side.
The poll was presumably conducted as usual from Thursday to Sunday – no sample size is provided, but the norm is around 1600. More to follow.
UPDATE: The sample was 1658, of which 900 came from online surveys and 758 from automated phone polling. Also featured is a question on which relationship Australia should prioritise out of the United States and China, who came in at 56% and 25% respectively. The split was 70-18 among Coalition supporters, 46-32 for Labor, 60-24 among men and 51-26 among women.
Having watched his show the other day when he said that, I think that’s a fair call. This is esp because there is an actual nepotistic crime family sitting in the WH corrupting in plain sight, and the Hunter Biden thing gives Republicans grist for the they’re all the same-ism mill as we’ve seen over the weekend when GOP bot after GOP bot was trotted out for the Sunday shows to emphasise the $50K per month thing.
But that doesn’t change the fact that there actually is a nepotistic crime family sitting in the WH corrupting in plain sight, and nobody apart from Trumpist partisans imagines that Joe Biden would act similarly if he were president.
Douglas and Milko @ #994 Tuesday, October 1st, 2019 – 7:17 pm
Sorry, but that was probably just prostitution. Very few ordinary Japanese businessman could afford a real geisha encounter – which doesn’t involve sex in any case.
And yes, I have worked in Japan. It is an astounding place.
PO….as I’ve stated, I’m opposed to a carbon price. It’s not necessary and would arouse opposition to the very positive work already being done in renewables – work that has very wide community support and will lead to the displacement of fossil fuels.
A carbon price is another Green herring. I’m not going fishing.
GG
Ahh, the old unconscious biases problem. I should have explained that as I am female, I very quickly found myself back on the street.
I think I got some beer out of a machine, and some sushi and salads from a 7/11, and when back to my (small) hotel room to do some work.
RI @ #1003 Tuesday, October 1st, 2019 – 7:30 pm
We know. You instead want us stake our lives on your ability to foretell the future.
Not. Buying.
PO,
Sorry, it was a joke. At my expense.
It’s another one of those weird double-standards, where the person from the left always has a higher bar to clear than the person from the right. How many U.S. and foreign officials stayed in Trump-branded accommodation while traveling on official government business before Trump was president? How many since then?
But okay let’s forget about that and the fact that Trump tried to tie huge amounts of aid money to the supply of political dirt to use against his likely opponent because Biden’s son got a cushy do-mostly-nothing job possibly for no reason other than being a Biden. Obviously that makes the stuff Trump has done/is doing okay; he’s just threatening to withhold hundreds of million in foreign aid because he hates corruption so much. 🙄
Douglas and Milko @ #1004 Tuesday, October 1st, 2019 – 7:30 pm
I know you’re a girl.
I was taking the pisss.
Melon….rage and rage some more. The fact is that an embargo on the Galilee will make no difference to either demand for coal or the usage of coal.
In an accounting sense, demand = use. Evidently, opening up the Galilee will make a difference to the use of Galilee coal: if it is not mined, it will not be used, if it is, it will.
So behind all the deflection, to say that opening the Galilee will make no difference to the usage of coal is to say that every ton of Galilee basin coal that is burned will somehow correspond to a one ton reduction of coal burned from some other source. This is supposed to happen by virtue of whatever pricing mechanism equilibrates “demand” and “supply”.
That is an incredibly strong and unrealistic claim, which is why you are not making it explicitly. But the claim is implicitly required for it to “make no difference” whether or not Galilee basin coal is dug up and burned (as you’re advocating on behalf of ALP policy) or whether it stays put.
Some of us actually think that it matters for the climate whether the Galilee basin coal is burned or not. And yes you can make the case that technology and investment in alternatives are what really matter. But that’s essentially beside the point when you’re debating whether mountains of coal from this particular mine belong in the atmosphere or not. An atmosphere that’s already at crisis point.
Given that it’s already 2019 and our time is up, the idea of all this new coal being dug up and burned is absolutely demented and fills many people with horror. That anybody could know what’s actually going on and still feign indifference is almost more disturbing than mere vulgar denialism. And I can think of almost nothing more absurd than the suggestion that opposition to Adani is motivated by a desire to hurt the ALP, when the simple physics and chemistry of what’s being planned is so self-evidently destructive.
A pox on Biden’s son.
watermelon
It will be 2030 before we all know it.
Cremorne Orpheum Theatre is nice. Restored by Mike Walsh. With an old wurlitzer that, iirc, appears from out of the floor on special screenings.
Last movie I saw there was the pre-premiere preview 70mm screening of Tarantino’s The Hateful 8, in January 2016. Many walk-outs, mid-film. Me too, almost.
Took the grandsons. Thought it would be a treat for them.
AWFUL movie, TERRIBLE 70mm presentation (fuzzy sound, unfocused image, inept projection standards), SHITTY day all ’round at 42 Celsius in the shade.
The boys loved it (which is a worry).
Previous Orpheum visit to that was a David Stratton night, showing 2001: A Space Odyssey, again in 70mm. Highlight was an après movie Q&A with Kier Dullea and Gary Lockwood on-stage, hosted by Stratton. Sound was FAR too loud and piercing, focus was iffy, with a hotspot in the middle of the screen the size of Jupiter.
For one who saw 2001 at the glorious Plaza (Cinerama) cinema in Ultra Panavision 70 when it first came out, the flat screen Orpheum presentation was decidedly underwhelming. Other than that very first time, I have never been able to stay awake throughout that movie. But the Cinerama presentation? You had to be there.
The Plaza is now a McDonalds, and Gary Lockwood was a bit of a buffoon, however I have to admit Kier Dullea was fascinating.
Hunter Biden brought knowledge of international politics to the board…
LOL
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/01/religious-discrimination-bill-so-flawed-it-cannot-be-supported-anglicans-say
How much surprisiment..the Coalition produces legislation NO -One likes. 🙂
imacca @ #1014 Tuesday, October 1st, 2019 – 7:43 pm
Which was always the intention?
a r:
I don’t look at it as a double standard. Obviously a Democrat voter, supporter, and donor was concerned (rightly as it’s turned out), that Republicans would make hay with Biden’s son’s employment, allowing them to muddy the waters on the real crime Trump committed during his phone call with the Ukraine leader.
For me, Biden himself gave Republicans a further huge target to hit him with by demanding news outlets ban Giuliani from appearing. If ever an action looked like he had something to hide! Instead of shrugging off Giuliani’s drama and remembering that whenever the man appears in the media he does Trump no favours, he issued that media release at the height of the Hunter Biden stuff. Gun meet foot! Truly frustrating.
GG
😀
“Some of us actually think that it matters for the climate whether the Galilee basin coal is burned or not. ”
And as far as it goes you are right. Its just that in May 2019 it mattered MORE to get rid of a rotten denialist Coalition Govt. With that , pressure off the QLD ALP to approve anything Adani, Coal Huggers out of power in Canberra, and real policy on renewables that the ALP took to the election ready to go.
The OCD focus on Adani was a MASSIVE fail by the Greens as it allowed the Coalition to frame the issue away from Climate and onto Jobs in seats where Jobs mattered more to the punters than Climate.
Fwark…….. i wish the Greens would even try to appear to learn some actual lessons from the May election and not be such bang on and on and on boring bullshit peddlers.
Confessions @ #1016 Tuesday, October 1st, 2019 – 7:49 pm
Disagrre.
Unless Trump and his minions have concrete evidence, then the story dies and all that is remembered is that Trump was so scared of a Biden candidacy that he resorted to these tactics.
The Election is over a year away. But, Trump knows who he can’t beat!
Kids…
In May 2013, Biden joined the U.S. Naval Reserve, receiving an age-related waiver since he was over the age cut-off of 42.[19] He received a second waiver because of a past drug-related incident. Biden received a direct commission as an ensign, serving in a public affairs reserve unit based in Norfolk, Virginia.[20] In February 2014, Biden was discharged from the navy reserve after testing positive for cocaine use.[21] Biden claimed that he had ingested the cocaine involuntarily, but declined to contest the discharge before an appeals panel.[2]
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hunter_Biden
The Trump team will love this!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6CjCE0IsNWw
I don’t know if this has been posted yet, but this is an interesting story from 538 on how really big news events can throw political polling off, through a effect called “differential non-response bias”. Basically the idea is that these big news events can sometimes result in pre-existing supporters of one party, but not another, becoming more or less likely to respond to polls. This makes it look like public attitudes have changed, but that’s not actually the case.
Something to keep in mind when there’s a change in the polls here after a big news splash.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-a-big-enough-news-story-like-impeachment-could-warp-the-polls/
The ACT went 100% renewable equivalent today, I believe.
Next steps are recognized as reducing use and storage solutions.
I do wish the rest of youse would catch up.
One way of reducing energy use in the ACT may be for the Legislative Assembly not to bother its collective head with sitting too much: 39 sitting days for 2019.
Melon
In an accounting sense, demand = use.
This is not a useful idea. It ignores the price effect on both supply and demand.
The market for thermal coal is glutted. The price is falling, which will tend to reduce the production (the supply) of coal. The glut arises in the first place because of the substitution of gas and renewables for coal. If you want to propel a reduction in coal mining, reduce the price of coal. To do that, increase the rate and extent of substitution.
Substitution at the margin of renewables in electricity generation makes the generation of electricity from coal uneconomic. This is a function of steam engineering and physics and the economics of running turbines. Coal powered turbines only make money during a few hours each day. The rest of the time they at best break even or often lose money. If they cannot turn a dollar during those few hours of high demand, they must close on economic grounds. This is happening.
Add to the supply of renewables. Depress the price of electricity during daytime hours. Intensify the coal glut. Close mines.
This is an inexorable process. It is just irresistible.
In a market that is heavily glutted, add to the glut.
I did like Hillary Clinton on Colbert with audience chanting Lock Him Up.
My take on Biden is he is going to be out of the race. His campaign asking media not to have Rudy Guiliani on was not a good look.
Concrete evidence means nothing when it comes to the truth. There are still a plurality of Americans who believe that Obama is not a US citizen, and there are still Americans who believe Hillary Clinton operated a pedophile ring via a New York pizza parlour. The latter unbelievably even having found its way to PB via a regular idiot commenter last year.
Confessions @ #1027 Tuesday, October 1st, 2019 – 8:19 pm
1. Obama is gone.
2. Hillary who?
3. You should stop reading porn posts.
confessions
Yep. Trump is already running attack advertising about Joe and Hunter Biden.
Cracker Foreign Correspondent episode on now, about Greta Thunberg and the “young people’s” Climate movement.
It will drive the Nationals crazy, bonkers.
On Greta Thunberg’s push for Climate action… does anyone have a suggestion as to why all its leaders appear to be female?
There’s nary a young bloke to be seen anywhere.
GG
By election time it will be President Pence or President Pelosi.
Legally Trump is gone. Politically I think so too. Indication of this is McConnell saying yes to Impeachment trial. Rules did not stop him with Supreme Court picks.
“It will drive the Nationals crazy, bonkers.”
Crazier…More Bonkers….there BB …………. fixed that for you. 🙂
Although….Bonkers / Nats / Barnyard daS Beetenrooter is a bit word association yucky wot??
imacca, I’m not sure what lessons you want the Greens to draw. That they should support massive new coal mines? There are no circumstances under which anybody who believes in climate science could support the Adani mine. The LNP are deniers, you expect it from them. As for Labor, well I guess the argument is that they should adopt climate denialism at election time, but plan all along to break their promises. I think this is a bad strategy for all sorts of reasons, not least of which is that not even the first step (getting into power by pretending that Adani is okay) didn’t work last time.
And blaming the Greens makes about as much sense as blaming the kids doing the climate strike the other day. This is real, its happening, people want to stop it, and they’re not going to pretend otherwise just to assist Labor in its political strategy of saying different things to different electorates.
Stop reading porn posts? Wow.
Watermelon,
No one cares about the Greens.
Why are you so obsessed with their goings on.
It’s bizarre.
Fess
William will have to put up an age restriction
Confessions @ #1035 Tuesday, October 1st, 2019 – 8:45 pm
Bow!
Well waddya know …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-01/reserve-bank-governer-philip-lowe-further-rate-cuts-inevitable/11565464
… it turns out the economy is tanking, the reserve bank is rapidly running out of bullets, the government is doing bugger all, and the massive population growth we have seen in recent years is actually a bad thing for our cities and for unemployment!
I mean … who could possibly have predicted that? 🙁
Greensborough Growler @ #1036 Tuesday, October 1st, 2019 – 8:45 pm
You mean other than the Labor partisans here on PB? Who seem to be completely obsessed with them?
Mex, GG,
As a boy, I used to help my old man with his milk run. Up at 1am, back to bed at around 7am. I probably started when I was about 7yo, running around the suburbs in the dark of night.
The sky and sounds and smells during the period from 4am onwards is burned into my mind… pure bliss. And the clink of 4 freezing cold silver-top bottles in a wire bottle carrier.
For those that missed the advert.
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/09/28/i-approved-message-trump-releases-2020-campaign-ad-completely-fabricated-lie-about
Dandy Murray @ #1041 Tuesday, October 1st, 2019 – 8:48 pm
Terrific imagery!
Briefly… you’re trying to use economics to deny physics.
It ignores the price effect on both supply and demand.
The only thing that matters is the quantity. The atmosphere doesn’t care whether the additional coal was cheap or expensive. By blocking Adani you guarantee that at least one certain quantity of coal will be kept out of the atmosphere.
Now the rest of your comment is just a very long way of making the implausible argument, as I described earlier, that whatever quantity of new coal comes out of Adani will cause its own offset through some price effect taking a equal quantity of coal production offline – or conversely, that blocking Adani will cause another Galilee basin somewhere else in the world to come online that would otherwise not have.
If you want to make the argument that the quantity of additional coal from Adani will reduce the quantity of other coal by some equal and greater amount, then make that case. But you’re just hiding behind word salad, because you know it’s not a viable case.
And you’re not even making a real case so much as trying to change the subject to a different one. You obviously know Adani is a bad idea. The very day that Labor changes its position, you will change yours.
Melon
There are only two instruments available for the reconstruction of the energy market – or any market, really – and they are demand and supply.
In the thermal coal market, measures to reduce demand for coal are already working. The electricity market is over-supplied and this is reducing the price of electricity and in turn reducing the imputed energy value of coal.
If this is accentuated, the price of coal will continue to fall and supply will shrink in response.
If you restrict the supply of coal – use the other instrument – you will tend to reduce the glut. You will tend to increase the price. You will encourage mines to stay open.
If you want to use less coal, reduce demand for it. Reduce its price. Add to the production of electricity from non coal sources.
This is already working and is supported by the voting public. Energy prices will fall. GHG emissions will fall. This is a win-win. It will help pay for and give rise to new jobs for those displaced from mining.
Abandon the embargo.
“There are no circumstances under which anybody who believes in climate science could support the Adani mine.”
Absolutely. But you are missing the point.
How strange for a Greens advocate??
Just because someone is not our there responding the way YOU think they should (public displays of indignation, despair and and fanatic commitment to a high profile ethically pure position ) does NOT mean they are supporters of what you oppose. That’s the kind of “With us or Agin us” absolutist framing so beloved of the RWNuttjobies and BlueGreens.
They may well be opposing it as well, just in a more constructive and nuanced way. 🙂 Buts that’s not something the Greens seem to get as a concept is it?
“As for Labor, well I guess the argument is that they should adopt climate denialism at election time, but plan all along to break their promises.”
You are an idiot.
imacca @ #1046 Tuesday, October 1st, 2019 – 8:53 pm
Watermelon and Nicky are the Breit and Bart of PB.
imacca @ #1046 Tuesday, October 1st, 2019 – 8:53 pm
Hmm, let me guess…P1? Has about the right amount of sanctimonious snark. 😆
RI @ #1045 Tuesday, October 1st, 2019 – 8:52 pm
Oh … and subsides. You forgot about subsidies.
Oh … and taxes. You forgot about taxes.
Oh … and legislation. You forgot about legislation.
(etc etc)
Sheesh!
C@tmomma @ #1048 Tuesday, October 1st, 2019 – 8:57 pm
Ummm. What?