Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

The fourth Newspoll since its wrong call at the election continues to credit the Coalition with only a modest lead on two-party preferred, with the minor parties continue to lift and Scott Morrison recording the opposite of a US visit bounce.

The fourth Newspoll since the federal election credits the Coalition with a 51-49 two-party lead, unchanged on the last poll three weeks ago, with both major parties down on the primary vote – the Coalition by one to 42%, and Labor by two to 33%. The Greens and One Nation are both up a point, the former to 13% – their best result from Newspoll since 2015 – and the latter to 6%.

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have deteriorated, either despite or because of his activities in the United States last week, his approval down two to 47% and disapproval up four to 43%. Anthony Albanese has bounced back four on approval to 39% after a six-point drop last time, but the report in The Australian does not relate his disapproval rating (UPDATE: Steady at 40%). Morrison’s preferred prime minister reading goes from 48-28 to 50-31, as respondents apparently becoming more inclined to pick a side.

The poll was presumably conducted as usual from Thursday to Sunday – no sample size is provided, but the norm is around 1600. More to follow.

UPDATE: The sample was 1658, of which 900 came from online surveys and 758 from automated phone polling. Also featured is a question on which relationship Australia should prioritise out of the United States and China, who came in at 56% and 25% respectively. The split was 70-18 among Coalition supporters, 46-32 for Labor, 60-24 among men and 51-26 among women.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,439 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Douglas and Milko
    says:
    Monday, September 30, 2019 at 1:11 am
    Roger Miller,
    How communist party preferences saved Menzies, maybe.
    http://andrewbartlett.com/sir-james-killen-moreton-menzies-and-mythology/
    Thanks for Andrew Bartlett’s take on this. It is well written, and probably as close as we will ever get to understanding the motives of those CPA voters whose preferences elected Jim Killen.
    ____________________________________
    There are going to be all sorts of perverse outcomes in a preferential voting system like ours. Because a handful of voters who put a communist party candidate first and then their preferences made their way to the Liberals does not mean that the ‘communists helped re-elect Menzies’. In that election 25 thousand people voted for the communists, most sent their preferences to the ALP. In contrast, 500,000 thousand people voted for the DLP and ultimately the Liberals. The people who elected Menzies in 1961 are the intellectual, and probably genetic ancestors of much of today’s ALP Right wing.

  5. Puff

    You went straight from caring for Arthur to caring for your Mum. Of course you’re feeling lost – you haven’t cared for yourself for over a decade.

    The loss of routine is one of the hardest things to deal with for a carer when their loved one dies. Your world has revolved around them.

    You need to build new routines – which is easier said than done, I know.

    While you explore the Big New World that’s opening up for you, the garden and the dogs need you. Enjoy the sunshine.

    You’ll eventually find other people who need you, too.

  7. It is a name that Orwell himself would have been proud of. More accurately it is a “Ban Farmers from Protesting Bill” or a “Chuck Dissenters in the Slammer Bill”.

    If this bill becomes law in its current form, it would almost quadruple the penalty for “aggravated unlawful entry on inclosed lands” from $5500 to $22,000 and add a three-year prison term for people who merely “hinder” a business while trespassing.

    The knitting nannas could go to jail for making their point peacefully and democratically.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/right-to-farm-bill-is-a-threat-to-democracy-that-affects-us-all-20190929-p52vwu.html

  8. nath

    ‘The people who elected Menzies in 1961 are the intellectual, and probably genetic ancestors of much of today’s ALP Right wing.’

    Today’s ALP right wing mainly consists of people who did exactly what their working class, Labor voting parents wanted them to do and went out and got a University education.

    They bettered themselves without forgetting where they came from and the kind of people they grew up with.

    It’s one of the tensions Labor has to deal with.

    *There are, of course, exceptions, which I’m sure you’ll beat up as if they represent the whole cohort. I

  9. “I keep seeing that Bob Brown is “launching another tour”. Is this fake news?”

    ***

    https://www.bobbrown.org.au/

    Considering how successful the Stop Adani Convoy was in highlighting the issue, I think there’s a good chance there may be something similar in the lead up to the QLD election. Adani is far from the only issue that the BBF campaign on though.

  14. lizzie @ #64 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 8:34 am

    C@t

    I wouldn’t say it was ineffective, considering it got the backs up of Qlders. Depends on the actual goal, of course.

    True. I was just thinking about the Northern Queensland voters who enjoyed saying, with their vote, FU! to Bob Brown and The Greens and Labor for being perceived to be too close to them and possibly ‘controlled’ by them as a result of Di Natale’s ‘demands’.


  16. Firefox says:
    Monday, September 30, 2019 at 7:52 am

    “Europe is supposed to be a green stronghold, but it looks like the same shit. A big enough vote to prevent action on climate change.”

    ***

    You used the wrong word. “Prevent” should be replaced with “DEMAND” in capitals, because that’s what Greens voters are doing. We demand action on climate change. We don’t support environmental vandalism like the ALP (Adani Labor Party).

    And once again, Labor should because the Greens can’t.

  17. zoomster
    says:
    Monday, September 30, 2019 at 8:28 am
    nath
    ‘The people who elected Menzies in 1961 are the intellectual, and probably genetic ancestors of much of today’s ALP Right wing.’
    Today’s ALP right wing mainly consists of people who did exactly what their working class, Labor voting parents wanted them to do and went out and got a University education.
    They bettered themselves without forgetting where they came from and the kind of people they grew up with.
    It’s one of the tensions Labor has to deal with.
    *There are, of course, exceptions, which I’m sure you’ll beat up as if they represent the whole cohort. I
    ________________________________________
    You could quite easily just point to the largest union of the Right Faction, the SDA, who were only re-admitted into the ALP in the 1980s after decades of trying to keep the ALP out of office.


  18. Firefox says:
    Monday, September 30, 2019 at 8:29 am

    “I keep seeing that Bob Brown is “launching another tour”. Is this fake news?”

    ***

    https://www.bobbrown.org.au/

    Considering how successful the Stop Adani Convoy was in highlighting the issue.

    Ya been real successful. Two finger solute from all, further delay on real action on climate change.

  19. The Adani convoy was a political success. It helped deliver Senate seats to the Greens. It helped the LNP win seats in Queensland and secured the Right in power. The Greens will do it again. They would be mad not to.

    The convoy of course will have no impact on whether or not the Galilee is ever mined. But this is not the point of the protests. The protest is principally about defeating Labor, who the Greens absolutely despise.

  20. Thank goodness Schiff is tasked with leading the impeachment inquiry and not the hapless Nadler. Another win for Pelosi in being able to sideline him.

    The confluence of two otherwise coincidental events — the embarrassing Lewandowski hearing followed in quick succession by the explosion of the Ukraine story — handed Pelosi an opening to sideline Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.) in favor of the more widely trusted head of the Intelligence Committee, Rep. Adam B. Schiff (Calif.), as Democrats launch the formal impeachment inquiry. And Pelosi has made clear that the investigation will focus narrowly on the Ukraine matter, a scandal she believes could be easily understood by the public.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/pelosi-turns-to-schiff-to-lead-house-democrats-impeachment-inquiry-of-trump/2019/09/28/ed6c4608-e149-11e9-8dc8-498eabc129a0_story.html

  21. Australia is further than ever from taking effective action at a national level with respect to climate change. We can thank the Greens for this.

  22. ‘The Bob Brown Relevance Deprivation Tour’

    ***

    Speaking of relevance deprivation, how’s your old mate Billy Shorten going? Haven’t heard from him in awhile. I can just see the huge crowds flocking to his campaigns in 5-10 years time.

  23. Another useless review after no action by the govt.

    “The only viable option to protect the welfare of Australian live exported sheep while the trade continues is to prohibit the highest risk months of the year … and introduce the revised heat stress risk assessment model, which the government has already committed to doing on multiple occasions,” a statement from the RSPCA said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/28/rspca-accuses-government-of-backflip-on-welfare-for-live-exports-from-australia?CMP=share_btn_tw

  24. Big hugs for Puff. Can’t really add much to the good advice already given other than it’s ok to put yourself first at times like this.

  25. The very dismal mechanics are that as the environment and the economy deteriorate the Greens will protest and the Liberal vote will increase. This is visible in the results in NSW at the election, where the Tory vote rose in drought-affected seats. Ecological and economic collapse will drive voters to the Right in our political array.

  28. “How Republicans have worked to prevent Impeachment since Watergate”.

    What we do have is another kind of system, one that the right wing in the U.S. has been constructing since Watergate: a system to make sure no Republican president is ever forced from office again, no matter what they do — even if they shoot someone on 5th Avenue. The right has devoted decades of careful, patient investment to creating this system, which has three main arms.

    First, there’s a gigantic media ecosystem, with Fox News at the apex and innumerable smaller creatures. Second, there’s an intelligentsia based in think tanks and Ivy League professorships funded by conservative foundations. Third, there’s a legion of right-wing judges carefully selected for monomaniacal partisan loyalty.

    Together they’ve created what Bruce Bartlett, a Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush staffer turned apostate, called “self-brainwashing.” “Conservatives now refuse to even listen to any news or opinion not vetted through Fox, and to believe whatever appears on it as the gospel truth,” Bartlett wrote in 2015. Nothing is true for Republicans unless the system says it is. If this system had been in place in 1974, Bartlett believes, “Nixon would have finished his term.”

    https://theintercept.com/2019/09/28/impeachment-republicans-nixon-watergate/


  30. Firefox says:
    Monday, September 30, 2019 at 8:46 am

    ‘The Bob Brown Relevance Deprivation Tour’

    ***

    Speaking of relevance deprivation, how’s your old mate Billy Shorten going? Haven’t heard from him in awhile. I can just see the huge crowds flocking to his campaigns in 5-10 years time.

    The Greens so proud of their success in delaying action on climate change and getting a federal Liberal government elected; good to see some honesty.

  33. Fess

    Admittedly Schiff was my pick for President. But I understand he had his hands full in Congress during this cycle. Maybe next time.

    I had a quick look at the sunday shows in the USA. The usual suspects are doing their level best to gaslight the nation.

  34. AirBNB has an advertisement promoting the advantages of ‘balance rules’ for home sharing.

    Michael J. Biercuk @MJBiercuk
    4m
    No you support your ability to penetrate the lucrative market in #Sydney.

    You don’t care if doing so circumvents protection for #tenants, turns apartment communities into hotels, or drives up rental prices by pulling long term rentals off the market. #rentersrights #property

  37. “Ya been real successful. Two finger solute from all, further delay on real action on climate change.”

    ***

    “Real action” hey. Now where have I heard that before…

    Supporting Adani is taking the kind of “real action” that Abbott would have been proud of.

  38. Lizzie

    A couple of people I know who live in apartments, say the most annoying aspect is the transient nature of the residents due to Airbnb

  39. Considering the tendency of voters to elect Right politicians, those activists who want to demand action on climate change should consider joining the Liberals. At least by doing so they will have some small chance of influencing events from within. In the current array their efforts are entirely self-defeating.

  40. Victoria

    Yes, no time to establish community. Very disturbing.

    I think Michael Biercuk has it right. Airbnb is taking advantage of other people’s investments, just like Uber.

  41. This latest poll seems to show nothing has changed much since the election and that the issues beloved by the media and activist PBers aren’t resonating that much. My best guess is that voters are interested in the economy, jobs and their children. So, it’s still all about the delivery of services to mainstream Australians.

    Sure there’s a little bit of a flurry around the various issues du jour. But, these will be long forgotten come the next election.

    Labor is doing the right thing by keeping their powder dry at this stage of the political cycle and reviewing their policies for the next big fight in a couple of years.

    The Greens and other fantasists can prosecute their “look at moi” strategy to their heart’s content. They might even be declared the winner of the current Phony War. Golf claps for them! It won’t mean that much in the long run.

  42. ‘Speaking of relevance deprivation, how’s your old mate Billy Shorten going?’

    Quietly working away. He’s organising a class action against the government atm.

    What’s di Natale up to? Anything useful?

  43. Lizzie

    It’s good if you want reasonably priced accommodation.
    Not so much if you have made your home in an apartment complex.
    Something I had briefly flirted with in my mind many moons ago.

    Now with the benefit of time, I have personally decided that should I live long enough, and my circumstances change etc. I am staying put in my current abode.


  44. Firefox says:
    Monday, September 30, 2019 at 9:00 am

    “Ya been real successful. Two finger solute from all, further delay on real action on climate change.”

    Ya I know, the Greens total contribution to action on climate” Labor/Liberals same same.
    They stood their with dumbfounded silence ( with whispers of same/same) as the Liberals pulled down the marine parks. Stood there with dumb founded silence ( with whispers of same/same) as Labor tried to get a price on carbon.

    And now we are going to have the man who opposes wind farms run another convoy.
    What a tiresome bunch.

  46. I recall the creation of the first federal Department of the Environment by Gough and his appointment of Moss Cass as Minister. The Right were outraged. Gough started this even though there was no constitutional power under which the Commonwealth could act. Hawke relied on the External Affairs power to intervene in Tasmania and prevent the Franklin dam. Labor has always had a leading role in environmental policy. But it has only cost them. This is a demoralising example of the saying….no good deed will go unpunished. Labor have been penalised for trying. No doubt.

  47. Soon the truth will out.

    House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam B. Schiff said Sunday that his panel has reached an agreement to secure testimony from the anonymous whistleblower whose detailed complaint launched an impeachment investigation into President Trump.

    The announcement from Schiff came on the same day that Tom Bossert, a former Trump homeland security adviser, delivered a rebuke of the president, saying in an interview on ABC’s “This Week” that he was “deeply disturbed” by the implications of Trump’s recently reported actions.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/intelligence-panel-has-deal-to-hear-whistleblowers-testimony/2019/09/29/fc22d084-e2e0-11e9-a6e8-8759c5c7f608_story.html

  48. https://www.mariecurie.org.uk/help/support/being-there/end-of-life-preparation/life-after-caring

    I found the above extremely interesting and informative. There are no one size fits all solutions. The key words for me are “life” and the concept of “being kind to oneself” has a radiating effect. Comforting others has the effect of comforting oneself. Having a friend (perhaps someone with whom you can cry) who willingly listens over a long period is a boon.

    The following will be oh so familiar to most who mourn or are suffering from bereavement.

    Here endeth the lesson. 9 O’Clock smoko. ☕

  50. Victoria @ #95 Monday, September 30th, 2019 – 9:11 am

    GG

    It’s the spring selling season. Not much stock available in our part of the world. Do you see that changing anytime soon?

    Interest rates are probably going to be cut again tomorrow. That’s not because the economy is firing on all cylinders.

    Morrison and Co need open the purse strings and start spending now. However, the pursuit of a surplus is all they care about.

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