Forever blowing bubbles

More reform talk, this time involving suggestions MPs should be prevented from defecting from the parties for which they were elected.

Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters chair James McGrath has floated another reform bubble, this time proposing that parliamentarians should be prevented from resigning from their parties under pain of either facing a by-election or being replaced by the nominee of the party for which they were elected. The Australian helpfully summarises recent situations where this would have applied: “Jacqui Lambie and Glenn Lazarus from the Palmer United Party, Cory Bernardi and Julia Banks from the Liberal Party, Fraser Anning and Rod Culleton from One Nation and Steve Martin from the Jacqui Lambie Network”. University of New South Wales constitutional law expert George Williams is quoted noting potential constitutional issues, particularly in relation to the lower house.

The proposal brings to mind the passage in New Zealand last year of what is colloquially known as the “waka jumping bill”, insisted upon by Winston Peters of New Zealand First as part of his coalition agreement with Labour after the 2017 election. This requires a constituency MP who quits their party to face a by-election, while party list MPs must vacate their seats and have them filled by the next candidate along from the list at the election. The move was poorly received by academics and the country’s Human Rights Commissioner, as it effectively gives party leaders the ability to dispense with troublemakers. It was also noted that Peters himself broke away from the National Party to form New Zealand First in 1990, but changed his tune after a split in his own party in 1998. However, the McGrath proposal would seem to be quite a lot less pernicious in that it would only apply to those who leave their parties of their own volition.

In other news, I had a paywalled article in Crikey on Tuesday regarding the YouGov methodological overhaul that was discussed here on Sunday, which said things like this:

Of course, transparency alone will not be sufficient for the industry to recover the strong reputation it held until quite recently. That will require runs on the board in the form of more-or-less accurate pre-election polls, for which no opportunity will emerge until the Queensland state election still over a year away. It’s far from certain that YouGov will prove able to get better results by dropping the telephone component of its polling, notwithstanding that phone polling is less conducive to the kind of detailed demographic parsing that it apparently has in mind. Nonetheless, the movements the pollster records over time within demographic and geographic sub-samples will almost certainly offer insights into the shifting sands of public opinion, even if skepticism will remain as to how it sees the numbers combining in aggregate.

I’m not sure when exactly we will see the fruits of YouGov’s approach, but we’re due some sort of Newspoll result on Sunday or Monday, and the fortnightly Essential Research falls due on Tuesday – we’re still waiting for the latter to resume voting intention, but I was told a little while ago it would happen soon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,328 comments on “Forever blowing bubbles”

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  1. Is @murpharoo the only journo who calls out LNP lies on emissions?

    Morrison said few countries in the OECD could report to the general assembly that they had overachieved on their Kyoto commitments. He didn’t mention Australia was given special treatment in the Kyoto process – it was permitted to include carbon emissions from land clearing.

    He said emissions per person and the economy’s emissions intensity were at their lowest levels in 29 years. He did not tell the general assembly that emissions across the economy are rising in Australia, and have risen every year since the Coalition abolished the carbon price.

    Emissions in the electricity sector had fallen, he said: “In the year to March 2019, emissions from Australia’s electricity sector were 15.7% lower than the peak recorded in the year to June 2009.” But he did not mention that emissions in other sectors of the economy are rising, driven predominantly by an increase in liquefied natural gas production in Western Australia, and transport.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/26/scott-morrison-says-australias-record-on-climate-change-misrepresented-by-media?utm_term=RWRpdG9yaWFsX0F1c3RyYWxpYW5Qb2xpdGljcy0xOTA5MjU%3D&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=AustralianPolitics&CMP=aupolitics_email

  2. talian authorities have closed off roads and evacuated homes after experts warned that a portion of a Mont Blanc glacier is at risk of collapse.

    Stefano Miserocchi, the mayor of the town of Courmayeur, said “public safety is a priority” after experts from the Fondazione Montagna Sicura (Safe Mountains Foundation) in the Aosta Valley said up to 250,000 cubic metres of ice was in danger of sliding off the Planpincieux glacier on the Grandes Jorasses peak.

    “This phenomenon once again testifies that the mountain is in a phase of strong change due to climatic factors, therefore it is particularly vulnerable,” Miserocchi said in a statement.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/25/mont-blanc-glacier-in-danger-of-collapse-experts-warn

  3. How low can this person go?

    Boris Johnson has been branded a disgrace for dismissing pleas from Labour MPs to stop using inflammatory language in light of the murder of Jo Cox, telling one that it was “humbug” and another that the best way to honour her was to “get Brexit done”.

    Johnson caused uproar in the House of Commons after he responded dismissively to Labour MP Paula Sherriff, who made a heartfelt speech calling on him to stop using language such as “surrender”, “traitor” and “betrayal” in relation to Brexit.

    He also drew gasps when telling Labour’s Tracy Brabin, who was elected to Cox’s seat following the MP’s murder by a far-right extremist a week before the EU referendum, that “the best way to honour the memory of Jo Cox and to bring this country together is, I think, to get Brexit done”.

    Before her death, Cox had campaigned to remain in the EU. Her widower, Brendan Cox, swiftly condemned the prime minister’s remarks, saying it had left him feeling sick.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/25/pm-branded-a-disgrace-after-saying-best-way-to-honour-jo-cox-is-to-deliver-brexit

  4. Denise Shrivell @deniseshrivell
    ·
    28m
    So now the narrative is being created to say ‘tell your children it’s ok not to join their friends in believing climate change’ & ‘don’t worry – the Govt is looking after you’. This really weird stuff. Completely dystopian. #auspol

    ScoMo said he encouraged his girls to make up their own minds “on the facts”. Hmmmmm.

  5. On the renewable energy vs grid debate, the need to modernise the grid to cope with large scale renewable power is nothing new. It had already been determined that the net cost of renewable energy, plus storage, plus required grid modifications, is still cheaper than new coal plants and mines. See this AEMO report back in 2016.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-12/power-grid-in-need-of-multi-billion-dollar-upgrade:-report/8111468

    So why the hand wringing about the grid now? Because the COALition is now using a refusal to permit grid upgrades as another means of blocking more renewable power. Again this is nothing new – it started under Turnbull; see the above article too. It seems pretty clear that this is becoming a standard conservative play. See this article below for the US version. I doubt the COALition was smart enough to think up the idea on their own.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyinnovation/2017/03/29/electric-grid-modernization-we-dont-really-need-you-mr-president/#5125935f4dcd

    Neither the Liberals or the Republicans give a damn about the environment or the economy in their efforts to prop up the fossil fuel industries that so generously donate to them. Labor should be pointing this out.

  6. Johnson has contempt for the Court (and everything and everyone else that gets in the road of his monomaniacal lust for power). But is he in contempt of court when he opines that the 11 judges all got it wrong?

  7. [‘University of New South Wales constitutional law expert is quoted noting potential constitutional issues, particularly in relation to the lower house.’]

    I think the expert’s right, there being no reference to the two-party system in the Constitution. If a member decides to leave the party that he/she got elected on the back of, the remedy of sorts may be found when the person next faces election as, say, an independent – eg, Banks. The Senate is different to the House, at least as far as casual vacancies are concerned, the 1977 referendum requiring, as far as practicable, that the vacancy is filled by a person of the same political party. But as for changing parties while still serving in the Senate, I think McGrath will have as much trouble as Sisyphus. I don’t think his LLM thesis was on constitutional law.

  8. lizzie @ #56 Thursday, September 26th, 2019 – 9:43 am

    Denise Shrivell @deniseshrivell
    ·
    28m
    So now the narrative is being created to say ‘tell your children it’s ok not to join their friends in believing climate change’ & ‘don’t worry – the Govt is looking after you’. This really weird stuff. Completely dystopian. #auspol

    ScoMo said he encouraged his girls to make up their own minds “on the facts”. Hmmmmm.

    The really sad thing is that the most fearful kids are very likely the ones who have closed their minds, most likely at the instigation of parents who are themselves scared. Kids pick up on this kind of thing very quickly.

    But if they were instead being taught to recognize the problem and approach it with an open mind, it would soon become clear to them that we are not done quite yet, and need not be.

    Like Greta Thunberg, they might be angry – but they would not be terrified.

  9. “How much do the fossil fuel companies donate to Labor?”

    The contributions paid by unions full of members in fossil fuel industries are probably more the problem.

    Keating’s remarks on the chances of a horse named Self-Interest are relevant as usual.

  10. Why are the Greens so intent on gifting to the Coalition the last four regional seats in the large states that are still out of Coalition hands?

    If they succeed then the Coalition will only need to get 42 of the remaining 116 urban and peri-urban seats to keep increasing CO2 emissions, to kill the Reef, and to… well you all know the drill.

    What is the Greens Plan here?

    To scrounge a few additional votes in the inner urbs by righteously chest thumping about how they are going to destroy the cotton, defence, oil, gas, coal and uranium industries while drastically curtailing the irrigation-based industries? Not to mention the near-total destruction of the ADF?

    Is the game plan to harrumph righteously over their lattes while their bony arses accumulate red creases on stolen milk crates in the sheltered laneways of the leafy inner urbs?

    What?

    Because if they are going to deliver on their 2030 plan of zero net emissions they are going to have to go from around 10% of the vote to around 30% of the vote in the next two elections, at the latest.

    Is taking all the regional seats out of play part of the Greens Master Plan?

    How does that work, exactly?

  11. BW

    [But is he in contempt of court when he opines that the 11 judges all got it wrong?]

    No. Otherwise anyone who filed an appeal would be in contempt.

    Can’t Boris appeal to the European Court of Justice?


  12. Danama Papers says:
    Thursday, September 26, 2019 at 9:47 am

    Socrates @ #57 Thursday, September 26th, 2019 – 7:45 am

    Labor should be pointing this out.

    How much do the fossil fuel companies donate to Labor?

    And the other side of the coin; the Greens, the impotent little non action parties pathetic responses to help the Liberals maintain power.

    Why aren’t the Greens pointing it out? Because they are “can’t contribute to actual solutions” party, or because it is about undermining Labor to support the Liberals..

  13. Could this be the likely strategy?

    Jennifer RubinVerified account@JRubinBlogger
    45m45 minutes ago
    Why wouldn’t Sasse, Romney and others invite Pence in for a chat? Trump has to go. Pence can be president for 18 mos and agree not to run for re-election (he’d lose anyway). All of them can run for POTUS instead.

  14. Boerwar:

    [‘But is he in contempt of court when he opines that the 11 judges all got it wrong?’]

    Bumbling Boris is not in contempt for saying the Supreme Court got it wrong. He would be in contempt if he were to suggest improper purpose by the justices – eg, they only came to their decisions because they hate him.

  15. P1

    The grid has to be upgraded, people like you can delay the required action by using it as a political football. Make your contribution to the damage being done, or support the changes needed. The environment cannot afford this nonsense to continue.

  16. Good Morning

    Another day the LNP is in trouble on Climate Change policy and lo BW is here to muddy the waters with faux concerns about the Greens destroying Labor’s vote.

    No matter how many times he repeats it the Greens were not responsible for Labor’s election results.
    Labor campaigned badly.

    No quarter from the fossil fuel booster.

  17. frednk

    It doesn’t help Labor to run LNP talking points. The gold plating of the grid and the subsidies to do that were highlighted by Gillard.

    Its catastrophic failure of business knowing the uptake of renewables not to innovate for the future.
    Its failure of government to legislate to force them to. Of course this might mean admitting privatisation has failed as the market ignores the national interest in favour of profit.

  18. @GretaThunberg tweets

    It seems they will cross every possible line to avert the focus, since they are so desperate not to talk about the climate and ecological crisis.
    Being different is not an illness and the current, best available science is not opinions – it’s facts. ->

  19. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EkaKwXddT_I

    On the subject of Mr. Morrison’s children (may the good Lord bless and keep them always).

    He said it was important children have a “passionate independent view” but added:
    “I don’t allow them to be basically contorted into one particular view.
    “I also like to give them reassurance, because the worst thing I would impose on my child is needless anxiety. They’ve got enough things to be anxious about.”

    In effect he told them what to believe. Science yez gotta unnerstand is a matter of belief apparently.

  20. lizzie says:
    Thursday, September 26, 2019 at 9:43 am
    Denise Shrivell @deniseshrivell
    ·
    28m
    So now the narrative is being created to say ‘tell your children it’s ok not to join their friends in believing climate change’ & ‘don’t worry – the Govt is looking after you’. This really weird stuff. Completely dystopian. #auspol

    This looks like the start of a taxpayer funded propaganda (sorry, education) campaign to promote Morrison as the great leader and to try and brainwash the community over global warming.

    The man definitely has dictatorial tendencies.

  21. Final Confirmation of good news today

    @sarahgerathy tweets

    #BREAKING Abortion is now decriminalised in NSW after #nswpol passed a bill to remove it from the Crimes Act, overturning a law that’s stood for more than a century

  22. “He did not tell the general assembly that emissions across the economy are rising in Australia, and have risen every year since the Coalition abolished the [#Greens/Labor] carbon price.”

    Of course not.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/26/scott-morrison-says-australias-record-on-climate-change-misrepresented-by-media?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Edit: @nytimemike tweets

    NEW: The whistle-blower raised alarms about how the White House handled records of the conversation and the whistle blower identified multiple White House officials to corroborate his account. @charlie_savage @julianbarnes https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/25/us/politics/trump-ukraine-whistleblower.html

  23. “Jennifer RubinVerified account@JRubinBlogger
    45m45 minutes ago
    Why wouldn’t Sasse, Romney and others invite Pence in for a chat? Trump has to go. Pence can be president for 18 mos and agree not to run for re-election (he’d lose anyway). All of them can run for POTUS instead.”

    Probably because they know that Trump will likely win the next election.

  24. P1,

    I am inside this particular policy tent.

    You do not know what you are taking about.

    I do not have time to explain it right now, but I have to prepare some text on this matter shortly. I’ll share some of it here, if I remember.

    Fred’s right that this is an important issue, and putting economic barriers in the way of further renewable energy investment is in noone’s interest. You just don’t seem to understand what the alternatives are, and the costs of each.

  25. Dandy Murray @ #88 Thursday, September 26th, 2019 – 10:24 am

    I am inside this particular policy tent.

    You do surprise me.

    You do not know what you are taking about.

    I do not have time to explain it right now, but I have to prepare some text on this matter shortly. I’ll share some of it here, if I remember.

    Sure, sure. Do you want me to remind you?

    Fred’s right that this is an important issue, and putting economic barriers in the way of further renewable energy investment is in noone’s interest. You just don’t seem to understand what the alternatives are, and the costs of each.

    Nice strawman there. No way did I see that coming!

  26. guytaur
    Labor lost the election it is done and dusted. The real question is where to from here.

    Do we continue to see from the Greens the same nonsense as we saw from DP. An impotent party trying to get one or two more votes by hanging shit on labor. If that is the case Labor has to point out the environmental failings of the Greens, a lot of noise, no action and a policy position that is basically stopping action.

    It really is that simple.

    I suspect the Greens are not going to change.

  27. frednk

    Yeah the Greens so impotent you are still blaming them for Labor failure. At least Adam Bandt gives Labor credit on its success with the Carbon Price.

    No attack on Labor in the tweet at all.

    So much for the Greens always attack Labor.

    Edit: Conclusion. Anyone that parrots the line the Greens always attack Labor is full of BS and not talking reality and Labor’s actual interest.

  28. ScoMo quoted by KayJay

    I also like to give them reassurance, because the worst thing I would impose on my child is needless anxiety.

    The govt is doing everything necessary. Trust your Dad. And trust in Jesus.

  29. P1
    From Dandy Murray original post it was pretty obvious he knew what is was talking about. The electrical grid is a complicated beast. I look forward to Dandy Murray’s post detailing his thoughts on the issues, yours, not so much.


  30. guytaur says:
    Thursday, September 26, 2019 at 10:40 am

    ….

    No attack on Labor in the tweet at all.

    An event; he is to be congratulated. Hopefully it will become something we see regularly.

  31. https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/6850522

    Abstract:
    The demand response (DR) is a key technology in smart grid and can solve the transmission line congestion, defer generation plants construction, and increase the system stability. This paper proposes the operation scheme of an industrial load, which participates in DR, considering the electricity price and the labor costs. The proposed scheduling scheme economically shifts the operation time of the industrial load from the emergency DR (EDR) time to the off-peak time. The proposed algorithm is tested in a hardware in the loop Simulation (HILS) system with OPAL-RT. The HILS system was composed of agents to manage the distributed generation(DG), energy storage system (ESS), smart load, and MicroGrid Central Controller (MGCC) to control and monitor the whole system. The simulation results by MATLAB show that the proposed algorithm effectively manages the smart load in Real-time pricing and EDR and a communication test is performed in the HILS system.
    Published in: 2014 IEEE International Energy Conference (ENERGYCON)
    Date of Conference: 13-16 May 2014
    Date Added to IEEE Xplore: 10 July 2014
    Electronic ISBN: 978-1-4799-2449-3
    INSPEC Accession Number: 14432709
    DOI: 10.1109/ENERGYCON.2014.6850522
    Publisher: IEEE
    Conference Location: Caveat, Croatia

    There is no doubt its possible to have renewables as par t of the mix.
    Put simply for telling that to voter. Tesla Battery preventing blackouts and we have the technology on demand.

  32. Thanks for the update WB on YouGov’s efforts. It seems I have a “bee in my bonnet” about the effect of self-selection in polls. Is anyone aware of any work done to study the effect of self-selection or even better any process assembled to minimise or correct for self-selection? My premise (at this stage) is that self-selection might be less of an issue where voting is voluntary, and more of an issue where voting is compulsory.

  33. “An impotent party trying to get one or two more votes by hanging shit on labor.”

    I still haven’t worked this tired old retort out.

    Its like demanding that the Greens have no right to have a climate action position, and especially no right to promote it. Because doing that will offend the labor partisans when they inevitably call labor to account for being spineless on climate action.

    Its basically railing against the Greens for being too open and too honest about the need for climate action. Instead they ought to follow labor’s lead and be sneaky and deceptive about it – based on a fundamental belief that the Australian electorate will never warm (excuse the pun) to clear and honest climate action arguments. So the Greens are mocked and cursed for not falling in line with the wise labor policy of deliberate ambiguity as the only workable pathway for climate action. Whereby you have to lie to the electorate to trick them into electing you on the belief that you won’t act on climate – and only then can you betray them and reveal your true environmental colours.

    In essense: how very dare the Greens be trully and honestly ‘green’!

  34. Seeing this a lot on Twitter

    fsouth45 tweets

    @b_spectabilis Morrison continues to lie about Australia’s emissions.Julia Gillard’s govt. introduced a price on carbon, and emissions started to reduce with this proven mechanism.The Abbott govt. withdrew the policy.Emissions have been rising every year since that stupid decision. Insanity.

  35. You see, P1, the way that I read the article, and the AEMC and CEFC reports, is that the industry has finally realised that the only way forward is to treat customers not as a nuisance but as active power system participants.

    This work is paving the way to providing payments to customers who’s investments and actions help the grids, as much as it is opening the discussion on charging more from customers who drive higher costs through the same. Overall, this is going to be a good thing, because customers have, or will soon have, devices that can reduce hugely network costs, and significantly help to balance variable renewable supply. Plus we are doing it first in the world, with huge export potential for our innovators and technical experts.

    With the right policies in place, technologies like batteries and EVs present a great opportunity to reduce system-wide emissions and energy costs.

    But you can’t just magic-up the right policies in a technically complex system.

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