Slicing and dicing

Hope at last that some good might come out of the Australian polling industry’s chastening experience at the May federal election.

Hopes that the Australian polling industry might again have something to offer soon have been been raised by YouGov’s announcement on Thursday that it is overhauling its polling methodology, and pursuing the establishment of a local industry body along the lines of the British Polling Council.

On the first point, the pollster says it will “transition to the standard YouGov methodology for national and statewide polling”. This means an end to the mix of online and automated phone polling associated with Galaxy Research, the established local outfit that has been conducting Newspoll since 2015, and which YouGov bought out at the end of 2017. In line with its modus operandi internationally, YouGov will move entirely to online polling, enabling it to adopt a more detailed scheme of demographic weightings that will encompass variables “such as education and more sophisticated regional segments”.

We may already have received a taste of this with the recent YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, which was conducted entirely online and supplemented the traditional weighting model of “age interlocked with gender and region” with variables for education and voting at the previous election. This looks much like the pollster’s approach with its British polling, but with education taking the place of a “social grade” variable that holds those with managerial or supervisory jobs distinct from the rest of the workforce.

The notion of an Australian Polling Council offers the exciting prospect of industry standards that will require the publication of sample weightings and full demographic and regional breakdowns from each poll, such as can be seen in this recent YouGov poll of voting intention in Britain. The YouGov announcement says that “several other companies have agreed in principle to establish this council and an announcement will be made in due course”.

Also of note recently:

• The first batch of submissions to the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters inquiry into the recent federal election has been published. This does not include the Labor submission, but The Guardian reports it calls for the committee to investigate the impact on election campaigning of social media platforms, its specific concern being with the widespread circulation of claims through Facebook that it had “secret plans to introduce a death tax”.

• The Australian reports the Nationals federal council has endorsed a proposal floated a fortnight ago to all but purge the Senate of minor parties by breaking each state into six provinces that would each return a single Senator at a normal half-Seante election.

• The challenges to the election results in the Melbourne seats of Chisholm and Kooyong have been referred for trial in the Federal Court, which will likely take about three months to reach a determination.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,017 comments on “Slicing and dicing”

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  1. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, September 25, 2019 at 6:05 pm

    FredNK

    Well they are going to have to wait a long time for Labor to act.
    Labor is doing with coal what it did with religious exemptions in NSW.

    In Queensland we all have to wait for the pantomime to finish. A pantomime required to drive home two basic facts.

    1) The Greens do not set Labor policy.
    2)Without Labor the Greens are a complete and utter waste of space.

    Now that you have pissed of pretty much every Queenslander how is your “Stop Adani” campaign going. You two bit losers.

  2. BW

    I see it still hurts you to the core that the Carbon Price worked.
    The ACT still showing Labor and the Greens are natural allies.
    NSW about to end having abortion illegal. Led by Independent Labor and Greens working together.

    Netanyahu in trouble. Johnson praying for a Brexit extension to delay resigning as PM as his party implodes. Trump finally facing Impeachment.

    It must be hard dealing with such progressive gains around you.

  3. FredNK

    You don’t speak for all Queenslanders.
    Neither do Murdoch journalists. Adani only impacted the election for Labor because of Labor.

    Not because of any Green stunts as you call them. You and Queensland Labor saying yes let’s open new coal mines is the problem. Read Sir David Attenborough or go back and watch his 7:30 interview. That’s the Adani coal mine he is talking about.

    Last I looked he was not a member of an Australian political party.

  5. Rex
    You missed the message of the last election
    Teenagers DID enrol to support Labor’s push for Gay Marriage
    As a result VICTORY was assured

  8. guytaur

    No I don’t speak for all Queenslanders, in fact I don’t speak for any.

    One thing is for sure, you efforts has pretty much resulted in two fingers solute from all. You get no thanks from the Liberals, how sad.

    Greens are left bleating Labor should do this, Labor should do that, every bleat highlighting how impotent the greens are, the very reason for the pantomime.

    Oh and look at our glorious policies on our nice green coloured web site.

    The Greens have been a complete and utter failure at moving conservation forward. It has all moved to a crawl. A party devoted to screwing over Labor instead of their claimed focus, conservation.

  9. The main message of the last election was that the Coalition nobbled 27 of the big state regional seats.

    The Coalition-leaning Indies nobbled another three. Labor survived in four.

    This left the Coalition with only having to grab 46 of the the remaining 116 peri-urban and urban seats.

    Labor is easily tarred with the Greens brush.

    The Greens intend to destroy entirely the following regional industries: cotton, uranium, coal and gas. They intend to damage other regional industries including the irrigation based industries.

    We could all wait until 2040 for the Greens to begin their phased destruction of all coal, oil and gas industries to be completed by 2030. But that one seems to lack a certain chronological rigour.

    One of the elements that is totally missing from the Greens 2030 target is where they are going to find the $50 billion a year in import income currently being delivered by the industries they are pledged to destroy.

  10. The main message from the last election was Labor failed in its campaigning.

    Yet here we still have Labor people here blaming the Greens for a stunt. They wonder why they lost the election. Talk about falling for the right wing campaign hook line and sinker. So good a campaign Labor people are adopting it.

    Edit: in other words stop whinging because the Greens ran a better campaign


  13. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, September 25, 2019 at 6:47 pm

    …

    Edit: in other words stop whinging because the Greens ran a better campaign

    The Greens ran a campaign against Labor. That is a pretty solid justification for Labor to point our the failure of the Greens to contribute any meaningful action towards the difficult problems we face. The environment cannot afford the last election again.

  17. P1:

    Those companies that are left are at least clever enough to pretend otherwise, but their main job in the current market is to unload as much of the crap as they can – at any cost, however low – before it becomes completely worthless.

    They won’t sell stockpiled coal below the cost of transportation as they would be losing money on every ton(ne)

    And they won’t supply coal below the cost of production (digging etc.) plus transportation as they likewise would be losing money on every ton(ne)

  19. FredNK

    Lying to the workers about their future job prospects and being part of the problem by opening new coal mines means it will be a flood of ex Labor voters joining the Greens. Enjoy eating all that humiliating punishment on Newstart that you have inflicted on the workers by supporting the automated coal mine with few jobs and money going to a multimillionaire

    Enjoy betraying your kids and grand children. All to hold out false hope and leave the workers in the lurch. From Labor it will be the same story every time a new coal mine is proposed.

    No transition plans for them just chucking onto whatever is left of Newstart after the Tories have finished with it.

    That’s what you are backing.

    Edit: Pointing out what Labor can’t do because of poor campaigning is not the fault of the Greens. They expected Labor to win.


  20. Player One says:
    Wednesday, September 25, 2019 at 6:59 pm

    frednk @ #1863 Wednesday, September 25th, 2019 – 6:54 pm

    The environment cannot afford the last election again.

    True enough. Labor needs to seriously lift its game.

    I think the pantomime being played out in Queensland to underline the Greens do not set Labor policy and that they are irrelevant and impotent is a good start.

    Hopefully next election it will be easier to deal with the Green stunts used by the Liberals to undermine Labor.

    We will see.

  21. Labor was out campaigned by Scrott and the mainstream media.
    Many voters didn’t trust or like Bill. (including Labor voters)
    Scrott’s everyman dumbarse schtick worked a treat.
    Voters thought Labor was going to take stuff off them (see 1 above)
    Labor didn’t effectively counter the coalition bullshit. Didn’t even try.
    Deep down, Labor is scared of tories.

    Result, Labor loses the unloseable election.
    Blind Freddie saw it coming from week one.

  23. EGT,

    Exactly.

    They may continue to produce at below their average total cost per tonne and incur a short-run loss relative to sunk fixed cost, but they won’t produce at prices below their short run variable costs, which are the costs of digging and transporting the black stuff.

    Economics 102.

    Next lesson: Dynamic efficiency and the role of technical innovation.

  25. FredNK

    That’s not the fault of the Greens. They were truth telling.

    It’s Labor failing with its campaigning and your going on day after day about the Greens is a case in point.

    It was the LNP campaign that outdid Labor not the Greens.
    The LNP won by pointing out how you couldn’t trust Labor.
    Must have had good focus groups.

  26. Mundo

    Yes you are right about Labor. They still let the media and LNP talk about the failure of climate policy in Australia.

    This will continue because Labor is too busy blaming the Greens rather than accepting the Carbon Price and the Tesla Battery worked.

    When Labor accepts those two facts they will be on the start of the road to an election victory

    Edit: There are still Labor people bleating about failed legislation in Rudd’s time rather than being proud they got a carbon price in place

  28. In my view the full list as to why Labor lost:
    1) You don’t do economic reform in an election campaign; there a too few to support and a hell of a lot to oppose. Morrison did to Shorten what Keating did to Hewson
    2) Clive spent 60 million shitting on Shorten.
    3) The Greens made it too easy for the Liberals to use the Greens against Labor.
    4)Many voters didn’t trust or like Bill. (including Labor voters)
    5)Labor was not supported by Murdoch, it still matters a little.
    6)Scrott’s everyman dumbarse schtick worked a treat.

  30. “Blind Freddie saw it coming from week one.”

    No, hardly anyone saw it. Least of all the pollsters and pundits, with maybe a few exceptions. First Dog was one, as I recall.

    What the polls were showing was that Labor was going backwards from the start of the political year (return from Xmas slow time). The polls said that halt stopped at 51-49 about 6 weeks out, but the slide continued mostly unnoticed.

    Labor’s campaign was hopeless. The lies and disinformation spread by the Government and its media allies was as expected. Labor did nothing effective to counter it.


  31. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, September 25, 2019 at 7:21 pm
    ..
    Tesla Battery worked.

    I am interested in this story, what has the Tesla battery got to do with the Greens?

  32. Morrison was half right when he said that Greta’s speech has caused a lot of anxiety out there.

    The bit he got wrong is that the most anxious people are the RWNJs and vested interests who are afraid that their control of the narrative on climate change is slipping away bit by bit.

    These people have no recourse except to make outrageous claims about the mental health of the young lady.

  34. Frednk
    All politics is local
    Labor threw away Robertson and Lindsey at the pre-selection
    They lost multiple regional Queensland seats and almost Hunter by not being transparent about their coal policy
    As a result they started out in a position that made victory difficult

  35. a r says:
    Wednesday, September 25, 2019 at 7:28 pm

    Drop the third point and I’d pretty much agree with those.

    It is unfortunate the Greens will not accept what they have done. If they don’t, Labor is going to have to deal with them, Queensland Labor is showing the way.

  36. So, ScoMao’s two best international mates are in the shit constitutionally, within the space of 36 hours.

    And the Chinese are ready to take the gloves off, telling the world that Australia will be the first to suffer when it gets really nasty.

    Everybody needs a fall guy.

    Scotty? Are you there? Hello?


  37. Oakeshott Country says:
    Wednesday, September 25, 2019 at 7:35 pm

    Frednk
    All politics is local
    Labor threw away Robertson and Lindsey at the pre-selection
    They lost multiple regional Queensland seats and almost Hunter by not being transparent about their coal policy
    As a result they started out in a position that made victory difficult

    You have to be fair, it was always going to be difficult. The Liberals are trying to tell all that coal has a future and the only reason your job is under threat is because Labor are beholden to the Greens.

  38. FredNK

    Labor has to stop believing the LNP about the beholden to the Greens line.
    Any time the Greens back sensible Labor policy the post Gillard Labor party runs a mile.

    Correct policy or not. Yes I am slightly exaggerating but not by much.
    Labor has to stop being scared of the Green bogeyman. Just like it has to stop being scared about boats or African Gangs.

    Then there is no wedge. There is a principled position to have pride in to take to the election.
    Being scared about the Greens bogeyman let Labor be wedged on coal.
    As a result Labor told the voters you can’t trust us.
    Then those fake Facebook adverts on death taxes found fertile ground.

  43. ‘Labor has to stop believing the LNP about the beholden to the Greens line.’

    It’s irrelevant whether Labor believes this or not. It’s whether the voters believe it.

  45. Good news for fans of Breaking Bad (and if you’re not a fan I don’t want to know you). On October 11 Netflix will be releasing a sequel movie to the hit series titled El Camino: A Breaking Bad Movie.

    It appears to pick up directly after the events depicted in BB with Jessie (Aaron Paul) now on the run from law enforcement. Skinny Pete and Badger also appear, and the interwebs is ablaze with rumours that Walter White (played to perfection by Bryan Cranston in the series) didn’t actually die, and he’ll be making an appearance as well.

    The trailer doesn’t shed much light on what happens but is very intriguing. Very intriguing indeed.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JLUn2DFW4w

  47. Zoomster

    Until Labor stops believing it they have no hope of convincing voters that believe the LNP.

    Step 1. Labor was successful on climate policy. The Carbon Price worked. Labor worked across the political divide for the only policy that delivered lower electricity prices and lower emissions.

    The LNP have refused to work across the political divide. The LNP are the roadblock of climate denial.

  48. “I see it still hurts you to the core that the Carbon Price worked.”

    You that flat out mad, Guytaur.

    None of us are hurt that the carbon price worked. We all loved the carbon price and mourned it’s axing. All of us.

    We are all hurting that our fellow countrymen and countrywomen deserted the progressive plurality to the turn of 1,500,000 overnight once the deal was struck in march 2011.

    Labor leadershit didn’t cause that one little bit. Ultimately labor leadershit was entirely reactive to the obvious fact that those 1,500,000 were simply not coming back under the Gillard regime.

    It’s a melancholy fact that the first round of labor leadershit in June 2010 probably ended up as the killer of two labor prime minister’s careers prematurely: it certainly seriously damaged what should have been a 4-5 team government. However, despite leadershit 1.0 those 1,500,000 lost voters were prepared to give of first female PM the benefit of the doubt right up to the carbon price deal in March 2011. After THAT they never came back – even when it was implemented, even when the sky didn’t fall in on them. Even though they were overcompensated for the costs associated. Rudd 2.0 stemmed the bleeding: labor still won 55 seats – more than the 1996 wipeout, but that’s about it.

    Looking forward the brutal unfair political factoid, which you simply won’t grasp, is that your brand of politics is toxic. Ebola levels of toxic – to all those lost voters. Especially in all those seats that you dismiss as being verboten and unimportant because of ‘the science’. Meanwhile, despite the immutable science … how good is scomo!

    We all need to find a way to get those voters back. To make common cause again. To learn the art of compromise. Frankly mate, even if everything works out miraculously and the centre left plurality wins government again, the Greens are going to face exactly the same choice they faced in 2009: will they accept a compromise they deem ‘weak’ because – once again labor + Greens will not be enough. Will they blow it again?

  49. I think BK will have to introduce a Dickhead of the Day award. Today was Sam Newman. Tomorrow it needs to be Karl Stefanovic. He has had a verbal swing at Greta Thunberg now. 😡

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