Hopes that the Australian polling industry might again have something to offer soon have been been raised by YouGov’s announcement on Thursday that it is overhauling its polling methodology, and pursuing the establishment of a local industry body along the lines of the British Polling Council.
On the first point, the pollster says it will “transition to the standard YouGov methodology for national and statewide polling”. This means an end to the mix of online and automated phone polling associated with Galaxy Research, the established local outfit that has been conducting Newspoll since 2015, and which YouGov bought out at the end of 2017. In line with its modus operandi internationally, YouGov will move entirely to online polling, enabling it to adopt a more detailed scheme of demographic weightings that will encompass variables “such as education and more sophisticated regional segments”.
We may already have received a taste of this with the recent YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, which was conducted entirely online and supplemented the traditional weighting model of “age interlocked with gender and region” with variables for education and voting at the previous election. This looks much like the pollster’s approach with its British polling, but with education taking the place of a “social grade” variable that holds those with managerial or supervisory jobs distinct from the rest of the workforce.
The notion of an Australian Polling Council offers the exciting prospect of industry standards that will require the publication of sample weightings and full demographic and regional breakdowns from each poll, such as can be seen in this recent YouGov poll of voting intention in Britain. The YouGov announcement says that “several other companies have agreed in principle to establish this council and an announcement will be made in due course”.
Also of note recently:
• The first batch of submissions to the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters inquiry into the recent federal election has been published. This does not include the Labor submission, but The Guardian reports it calls for the committee to investigate the impact on election campaigning of social media platforms, its specific concern being with the widespread circulation of claims through Facebook that it had “secret plans to introduce a death tax”.
• The Australian reports the Nationals federal council has endorsed a proposal floated a fortnight ago to all but purge the Senate of minor parties by breaking each state into six provinces that would each return a single Senator at a normal half-Seante election.
• The challenges to the election results in the Melbourne seats of Chisholm and Kooyong have been referred for trial in the Federal Court, which will likely take about three months to reach a determination.
I think that Greta must have some very steady adults to support her, letting her free but giving her confidence.
Boerwar @ #1798 Wednesday, September 25th, 2019 – 1:32 pm
No, but we can all spot the huge difficulty with your credibility when you use such tortuous logic as you just did. Including, I might add, the owner of this site who has already admonished you for the way you twist reality around to arrive at your “conclusions”.
No wonder the wombats are beating you.
Mexicanbeemer @ #1800 Wednesday, September 25th, 2019 – 3:38 pm
Their supporters are already lost causes. But what idiots like Newman do is make it perfectly clear that Greta scares the pants off them. The more people who see that, the better.
‘Danama Papers says:
Wednesday, September 25, 2019 at 3:44 pm
Boerwar @ #1798 Wednesday, September 25th, 2019 – 1:32 pm
Do you spot the tiny difficulty with the credibility of the Greens?
No,…’
Well, of course you don’t!
Avoiding social media means I do not have to be subject to the rantings of a deranged half wit ex afl player, washed up tv personality and irrelevant son of a motherless goat whose father smelt of elderberries.
Until lizzie copies such on PB.
Parenting 101
Simon Katich
First time I’ve ever done it, and never again, promise.
🙁
On my way to a Labor Party Homelessness Policy Action Committee meeting at NSW State Parliament House. Because you have to keep caring and trying your best to do something about the things you say that you are involved in politics for.
I note that the Green bleeding hearts who profess to care more than the rest of us are here doing nothing except what they do day after day -attacking Labor and their supporters. ヘ(^_^)ヘ
😉
subject – subjected to.
I’m with SK. Like I care about what some washed up bigot thinks about one of the world’s most dynamic individuals and iconic trailblazers.
https://newrepublic.com/article/154879/misogyny-climate-deniers
“According to Jeffress, climate change is nothing to worry about because God already promised not to destroy the world again with rising sea levels after the Great Flood.”
I thought that it was “fire next time”????? But of course that cant have any connection to Global Warming can it?? 🙁
It looks like John Bolton is leaking to the Washington Post about the Trump -Biden -Ukraine matter.
That’s one thing Trump has never learned -don’t sideline and then fire someone who knows where the skeletons in the closet are.
KayJay says:
Wednesday, September 25, 2019 at 2:52 pm
I think I prefer the Full Windsor Knot
Full windsor, it is a balanced knot, and it is not hard to do.
For all their faults Labor has done things to curb coal demand. The Greens have offered empty stunts and rhetoric.
C@tmomma
says:
Wednesday, September 25, 2019 at 4:03 pm
On my way to a Labor Party Homelessness Policy Action Committee meeting at NSW State Parliament House. Because you have to keep caring and trying your best to do something about the things you say that you are involved in politics for.
I note that the Green bleeding hearts who profess to care more than the rest of us are here doing nothing except what they do day after day -attacking Labor and their supporters. ヘ(^_^)ヘ
________________________
It’s pleasing that Labor is trying to do something for all the people it forced into poverty and homelessness with the Single Parenting Payment changes. Bravo.
The Labor-Greens ACT Govt has just legalised weed. Excellent.
Canberra as the Marijuana Capital of Australia reinforces all the stereo-types of the place being full of slow working dopes.
frednk @ #1815 Wednesday, September 25th, 2019 – 4:15 pm
One really needs a longer tie in circumstances where one is trying to knot the tie around the bull neck of an ex AFL unreconstructed boofhead where the said BH is resisting the restraints applied by tiny 16 year old female University Graduates (not Greta Th); the getting him onto a chair would not be easy although the effort would be worthwhile. The project would be made easy by another BH speaking convincingly and telling the first BH how handsome, strong and intelligent he is…………….
And so on …..
♫Dreaming – ♫ I’m always ♪ ♫ dreaming……
Just one of my little fantasies. 😎😇
P.S. Yes I have mastered the Full Windsor Knot.
lizzie @ #1812 Wednesday, September 25th, 2019 – 4:12 pm
Thanks for this, lizzie. It makes perfect sense to me. And it explains why a 16 year-old schoolgirl is precisely the right person to take the fight to these morons. They can’t help but make themselves look outraged, fearful and just plain ridiculous trying to oppose her.
But the best part is not that she makes doddering old white men look like fools (that’s just a bonus!) – it is that she is so effective at getting her message across…
… which is, of course, why they hate her so much.
Player One @ #1830 Wednesday, September 25th, 2019 – 4:36 pm
2 yrs 8mths until the next election.
Time for momentum to build among teenagers and enrol to vote.
I really think RDN should pick up the phone NOW to Peter Garrett and hand over the reins.
Modern Australia is a land built on myth …
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/25/we-are-talking-about-drought-proofing-again-they-are-simplistic-solutions-that-will-destroy-australia
Rick Wilson
@TheRickWilson
I hear the bus rumbling to life, and someone pushing Rudy under.
Quote Tweet
Aaron Blake
@AaronBlake
· 6h
BREAKING from WaPo team: Giuliani pursued shadow Ukraine agenda as key foreign policy officials were sidelined
I just read the WaPo article on Giuliani -Ukraine. It is comprehensive and it is damning.
Morrison may regret that his recent antics have succeeded only in making the world more aware of Australia’s efforts to stymie action on global warming …
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/commentisfree/2019/sep/24/australia-has-dodged-global-attention-on-fossil-fuels-because-of-assiduous-diplomatic-efforts
Oh, and one for those here who claim “it’s a demand problem, not a supply problem” …
People are starting to notice what we do, as opposed to what we say.
This will probably not end well for Australia 🙁
C@t
Yep. Trumps luck may have finally run out
But the CFMMEU and unions are the evil ones!
With a father like that, of course they would.
All these people have Asperger’s.
In this list, the only question I have, is how can they be sure, at this distance in time?
P1,
It looks to me like the authors of that article stopped at Economics 101 (Supply and Demand) and didn’t get to Economics 102 (Production).
For normal goods, when you increase supply *at a lower cost* the market equilibrium moves down the demand curve to a higher quantity and lower price. Tick!
However, in almost all natural resource extraction cases, we can safely assume that the market is in a state of productive efficiency. This is especially the case for industries with high start-up cost. For a specific example, google the ‘Golombek curve.’ Put simply, there is *no ability to increase supply at a lower cost.* All increases to supply will occur at a greater marginal price than existing projects.
Now, because potential new producers are not cheaper than existing, they have little to no impact on the equilibrium quantity or price – demand does not magically increase to meet this new, uneconomic supply.
Nathan Tinkler learnt about this the hard way in the coal market – when demand temporarily shrank, the most expensive coal producers went out of business, and that included Tinkler. Twiggy Forrest came close to repeating the lesson until the mine dam disasters in Brazil, which removed cheaper iron ore supply, saved his bacon.
Now, on to the positives – the huge market for hydrogen/ammonia in NE Asia, as a substitute for natural gas. This can be produced using renewable energy sources. We already have the commercial relationships, and the renewable energy potential, so let’s corner that market.
Victoria says: Wednesday, September 25, 2019 at 5:00 pm
C@t
Yep. Trumps luck may have finally run out
***********************************************
Trump has spent his whole life slippin and sliding out of EVERY situation he has been in be it marriage, military deferment, bankruptcy, business ventures etc etc – and he ain’t called Teflon Don for nothing …..
I’ll believe it when I see the FBI guys frogmarching Trump out of the White House in cuffs and bundling him into the back of a black paddywagon …
Like this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5htIRjdRjU
Lizzie
I am one who often posts snippets of twitter – and half started the Sam Newman one yesterday. On reading it again, I thought fuck you Sam – your words should only appear in a garbage can.
But I was tempted.
I thought the Trump Family were sitting in the correct place for them.
=)
There might have been told to sit there, I once had an usher tell me to take a seat then later realized the seat was marked reserved for the disabled.
Simon Katich says: Wednesday, September 25, 2019 at 5:31 pm
I’ll believe it when I see the FBI guys frogmarching Trump out of the White House in cuffs and bundling him into the back of a black paddywagon
Like this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5htIRjdRjU
*************************************************
YES Simon 🙂
and ……
Dandy Murray @ #1831 Wednesday, September 25th, 2019 – 5:25 pm
Of course there is. You are forgetting to take into account that coal has no future in the medium to long term. None. At least not thermal coal. Even the dumbest of coal companies knows this, and several of the dumbest and least profitable ones have already gone belly up, as the price of coal continues to plummet. Those companies that are left are at least clever enough to pretend otherwise, but their main job in the current market is to unload as much of the crap as they can – at any cost, however low – before it becomes completely worthless.
Boerwar @ #1804 Wednesday, September 25th, 2019 – 1:53 pm
Why is that? Because I’m a Green? If so then this is another example of you twisting reality to meet your conclusion.
Apart from the NSW state election in 2011 I have never put the Greens higher than #2 on either of the ballot papers. Labor has always been in first place. Always.
Your claim that the Greens will keep burning coal until 2040 is based on your notion that that is how long it will take for the Greens to win enough seats in parliament to become the government, despite the fact you have claimed countless times in the past that the Greens will never get to that position.
Now do you see how stupid you look? Everyone else does.
sprocket_
Yes, I thought twice and deleted it once, but it actually represented many more in the same vein by different d-heads. I think I must have led a very sheltered life in the company of the intelligent educated!!
Any adult in the ACT will be able to grow two cannabis plants per person, with a maximum of four per household.
They will also be allowed to be in possession of up to 50 grams of dry cannabis, or 150 grams of wet cannabis.
Cultivating cannabis through a Canberra winter will not be easy though, as any Canberra gardener can attest.
Amendments suggested by the Greens to allow the cultivation of hydroponic cannabis were voted down, along with amendments providing greater allowances to those growing cannabis for medicinal purposes.
There also remain plenty of rules around when and where cannabis can be consumed.
It cannot be consumed in public, or anywhere near children, and will also have to be stored somewhere inaccessible to children.
Cannabis plants will have to be grown somewhere not accessible to the public.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-25/act-first-jurisdiction-to-legalise-personal-cannabis-use/11530104
Lizzie
That study that was done recently about conservatives points it out scientifically.
The right has an Empathy Deficit. At its extreme you find the White Supremacist Hitler types.
Those attacking Thunberg are part of this. Fox had to fire or suspend a guest contributor for making such comments about her.
Apparently what’s ok for some Murdoch papers and “colourful identities” on the right does not meet the Fox standards.
That’s why they hate Thunberg. Their audience still has some empathy left.
Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, September 25, 2019 at 4:42 pm
….
I really think RDN should pick up the phone NOW to Peter Garrett and hand over the reins.
Could be wrong but I think the kids want action, not stunts.
frednk @ #1843 Wednesday, September 25th, 2019 – 5:59 pm
Also, most kids wouldn’t even know who Peter Garrett was.
FredNK
Well they are going to have to wait a long time for Labor to act.
Labor is doing with coal what it did with religious exemptions in NSW.
Those exemptions are still there. Conservative Tasmania now has the best such protections and Senator Abetz has made it clear he hates the fact.
The lesson is don’t throw in the towel. As the ACT is showing you win when you stick to your principles.
How about instead of attacking the Greens for pointing out the obvious facts about coal and what Queensland Labor is doing you join in attacking Morrison.
Oh no can’t have that. The workers might realise Labor is giving false hope.
‘Danama Papers says:
Wednesday, September 25, 2019 at 5:42 pm
Boerwar @ #1804 Wednesday, September 25th, 2019 – 1:53 pm
Well, of course you don’t!
Why is that?’
Because I did not expect you to allow any sort of political reality to intrude on your pipe dream.
The Greens got a jump when the Dems collapsed but have been eking out a fairly small trend increase since then. On the current trends the Greens will not be able to form government until 2040. That is being extremely generous to the Greens.
Promising to deliver something in a PHASED way to COMPLETION by 2030 when you won’t even be able to form government and START delivering before 2040 lacks all credibility.
Player One says:
Wednesday, September 25, 2019 at 6:01 pm
…
Also, most kids wouldn’t even know who Peter Garrett was.
True
Peter Garrett served two terms as president of the Australian Conservation Foundation. In his first term, from 1989 to 1993 ( Hawke government), significant results were achieved for many threatened areas of the Australian environment including Coronation Hill in Kakadu, Shoalwater Bay in Queensland, the Queensland Wet Tropics rainforest and Jervis Bay in NSW. In his second term, the ACF grew strongly, developed partnerships with non-government organisations, progressive business groups and companies, and expanded it’s campaigning into marine conservation and northern Australia.
All happened before the Greens came along and stuffed things up. I think the Australian Conservation Foundation has worked it out, realizing the Greens are a waste of space they seem to be getting back into the fray.
Oh and midnight oil.
Why call Peter? He is busy. Try Paul.
But I reckon they both flew away.
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, September 25, 2019 at 6:11 pm
….
Promising to deliver something in a PHASED way to COMPLETION by 2030 when you won’t even be able to form government and START delivering before 2040 lacks all credibility.
And that about sums it up; the policy documents don’t amount to a hill of beans, treating them seriously is a waste of time.
lizzie @ #1863 Wednesday, September 25th, 2019 – 3:14 pm
No that isn’t right. The area for wheelchair users is in front of the sign where it is easy for them to access.