Hopes that the Australian polling industry might again have something to offer soon have been been raised by YouGov’s announcement on Thursday that it is overhauling its polling methodology, and pursuing the establishment of a local industry body along the lines of the British Polling Council.
On the first point, the pollster says it will “transition to the standard YouGov methodology for national and statewide polling”. This means an end to the mix of online and automated phone polling associated with Galaxy Research, the established local outfit that has been conducting Newspoll since 2015, and which YouGov bought out at the end of 2017. In line with its modus operandi internationally, YouGov will move entirely to online polling, enabling it to adopt a more detailed scheme of demographic weightings that will encompass variables “such as education and more sophisticated regional segments”.
We may already have received a taste of this with the recent YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, which was conducted entirely online and supplemented the traditional weighting model of “age interlocked with gender and region” with variables for education and voting at the previous election. This looks much like the pollster’s approach with its British polling, but with education taking the place of a “social grade” variable that holds those with managerial or supervisory jobs distinct from the rest of the workforce.
The notion of an Australian Polling Council offers the exciting prospect of industry standards that will require the publication of sample weightings and full demographic and regional breakdowns from each poll, such as can be seen in this recent YouGov poll of voting intention in Britain. The YouGov announcement says that “several other companies have agreed in principle to establish this council and an announcement will be made in due course”.
Also of note recently:
• The first batch of submissions to the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters inquiry into the recent federal election has been published. This does not include the Labor submission, but The Guardian reports it calls for the committee to investigate the impact on election campaigning of social media platforms, its specific concern being with the widespread circulation of claims through Facebook that it had “secret plans to introduce a death tax”.
• The Australian reports the Nationals federal council has endorsed a proposal floated a fortnight ago to all but purge the Senate of minor parties by breaking each state into six provinces that would each return a single Senator at a normal half-Seante election.
• The challenges to the election results in the Melbourne seats of Chisholm and Kooyong have been referred for trial in the Federal Court, which will likely take about three months to reach a determination.
UI @ #1727 Wednesday, September 25th, 2019 – 11:26 am
In terms of a relationship with Labor, the Qld CFMMEU is the greatest threat to its electoral fortunes and survival.
FIRST the Greens are going to triple their vote, which they will need to do to form government.
On even the most optimistic interpretation of current trends they will triple their vote some time in the 2040’s.
THEN they are going to gradually phase out the coal industry by 2030.
PLUS they quote Thunberg and Attenborough.
IN THE INTERIM THEY SLAG EVERYONE ELSE!
PLUS the Reef dies!
What a PLAN!
A short bio on the head of the UK Supreme Court:
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2019/sep/24/lady-hale-career-breaking-barriers-judiciary
Mavis Davis
Thanks for the link. An admirable woman.
On the other hand, it worked pretty well on Nixon. 🙂
[‘Labor needs the backing of the Greens to pass the bill, and they have offered conditional support.’]
An example of Labor and the Greens working cooperatively albeit conditionally:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/25/cannabis-set-to-be-legalised-in-australian-capital-territory-for-personal-use
She is indeed, lizzie.
THE mother of controversial animal activist Chris Delforce — the man behind the Aussie Farms activist map — is a senior figure in agriculture for the Federal Government.
The Weekly Times can reveal Dr Julie Delforce, whose son has vowed to continue to break the law in an attempt to shut down animal agriculture, is the director for agricultural productivity and food security for the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.
Dr Delforce’s taxpayer-funded role involves strengthening the quality of agricultural development initiatives across the Australian aid program.
https://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/news/national/aussie-farms-activist-chris-delforces-mother-is-a-leading-ag-official/news-story/51343969f5f88e46947e334f03d59d3b?fbclid=IwAR2k8ijTEAMbg99fEeiEew45QGx1o3w2TQ5iuJYDpPuY-gCNlkJiCFVytN0
Redlands,
So what!
My six lady Op Shop focus group were disgusted at how tightly Scott Morrison had wedged himself up Donald Trump’s backside, when I was in there today. They said it was disgusting, and embarrassing!
That’s quite a set of achievements by Lady Hale.
I like bit about her association with the bar:
I see UI and BW have recovered from their shock at Sir David Attenborough attacking Australia for supporting the opening of a new Coal Mine called Adani.
It’s still it’s all the Greens fault. Be afraid be very afraid.
Labor has to stop being a spineless blob and challenge the bloody denialists.
That includes posters like UI and BW and others here ignoring Sir David.
You are part of the problem. The rotten core in Labor that cost it the election because of being two faced on Adani.
Be in zero doubt it’s your empty words about money that Greta Thunberg was talking about. Playing demonise the Greens because they have a science backed policy of no new coal mines.
BW: “THEN they are going to gradually phase out the coal industry by 2030.”
a mere 10 years away – if it were achieved, it would be a spectacular achievement. But I guess thats not good enough. Presumably you would not be satisfied until the greens started demanding that we shut down coal completely tomorrow, and destroy our economy and the livelihood of thousands in the process?
In any case, 2030 is a lot different to 2040 – wouldn’t you agree? At least we got something out of you.
On Impeachment
It’s about time. There is no down side for rewarding the base in the US.
The Democrats win with the base turning out.
You can’t not act out of fear of consequences especially when it’s not about stains on a blue dress.
This is Nixon not Clinton
FWIW, Nixons impeachment process formally got underway about a year after his second term began although was started several months prior.
Instead of attacking the Greens Labor partisans should be jumping with glee.
Morrison stated he shares Trump’s values. He has tied himself irrevocably to Trump as Impeachment starts.
What brilliant memes are going to be there. Media should be asking what values. The pussy grabbing ones? The racist locking children in cages ones?
The let’s let a foreign government decide our foreign policy ones?
There is a very very rich narrative here to bring Morrison down with Trump.
guytaur:
[‘He has tied himself irrevocably to Trump as Impeachment starts.’]
Unless the evidence to support impeachment is overwhelmingly cogent, Trump won’t be impeached,
Senate Leader McConnell saying that it’s “witch-hunt”.
Mavis
The Republicans were saying exactly the same things at the start of the Impeachment process for Nixon. There was lower support for impeaching him than there is for Trump.
We will see. Today Speaker Pelosi has made it crystal clear. We will find out who is right. Impeachment has started.
“I see UI and BW have recovered from their shock at Sir David Attenborough attacking Australia for supporting the opening of a new Coal Mine called Adani.
It’s still it’s all the Greens fault. Be afraid be very afraid. ”
If we are to have any hope of formulating a strategy to reduce worldwide emissions, the galillee basin must not be opened up. No ifs or buts – there really is no choice on that. The greens are the only party who are adamant on this. Both majors either want to go full steam ahead with it or don’t want to talk about it.
Whats worse, is the people here apologising for labor’s gutless fence-sitting or outright support for Adani, claim to do it from a pro-climate action perspective: eg -the best way to get rid of Adani is to not talk about it and it will go away naturally; Adani is not economical, so let it go ahead and it will fail on its own. To the really absurd logic that says labor has to be pro-coal to get the coal-community votes – since thats the only way for labor to form government, and labor is the only party who will act on climate change.
And so, they attack Greens from the absurd perspective that somehow being openly pro-climate action and honest about whats at stake, and worst of all, calling out those who are being gutless fence-sitters – is the best way to ensure action on climate change will not happen. The solution? According to the resident strategists, at the very least you have to keep quiet about climate change, so as to not offend the many voters who benefit from the coal industry. But even this level of spinelessness is not enough to ensure success: you also have to lie by saying you are pro-coal, and ambivalent towards climate change – to get elected – thereafter you will betray the electorate by revealing yourself as really anti-coal and pro-climate action.
Oh that, and of course while at the same time relentlessly trolling and mocking the only party that is actually raising the issue and being honest about their intentions to act on climate change.
Yes. I just hope Pelosi is going off of more than media reports and speculation about what the whistleblower said (and that there’s hard evidence proving what the whistleblower said).
‘Big A Adrian says:
Wednesday, September 25, 2019 at 1:29 pm
BW: “THEN they are going to gradually phase out the coal industry by 2030.”
a mere 10 years away – if it were achieved, it would be a spectacular achievement. ‘
Your PLAN is to get elected by 2040 so that you can phase out coal by 2030.
Try and spot the problem.
guytaur:
Sixty-seven senators are required to convict Trump. Trump has 90% support among Republicans. I doubt whether they would risk the blowback from their base. I further think that it would be far better to beat Trump at the ballot box.
Andrew_Earlwood:
Noted.
ar
The Democrats announced Impeachment after Murdoch’s Wall Street Journal confirmed the other media reports.
All the Democrats have to do is turn their base out. Impeachment does that if you want to be political party about it. Just run it long enough. If both Trumps base and the Democrats base is infused with enthusiasm the Democrats win.
For those that missed it. Here is why Pelosi acted and remember Trump will have to testify. He is his own worst witness.
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/24/politics/democrats-impeachment-strategy/index.html
Senator: Deranged racist idiot says what?
Trump: What?
Senator: I rest my case.
BW “Your PLAN is to get elected by 2040 so that you can phase out coal by 2030.”
Sounds like a strawman. Where did you get that from? Did you just make it up like you made up the bit about Greens allowing coal mining until 2040?
Sterling rhetoric Big A A.
Now what’s your plan to win over a majority of the vote in a majority of the seats to achieve the Greens vision?
Genuine question. Asking for a friend. …
BW,
Not such a big problem.
Everything else would go backwards under a Greens regimes.
Why not time as well?
https://theconversation.com/politicians-who-become-lobbyists-can-be-bad-for-australians-health-124078
Re bases:
Trump has never gone beyond 44% approval since the first hundred days, nor below 50% disapproval since then. His base is limited, even if he gets them all out to vote.
The challenge for the Democrats is to ensure that the disapprovers get out and vote in the right places. Typically, the disapprovers who don’t vote are those disaffected by the whole political system. I think impeachment proceedings will help to energise those people.
Emerson just gave him a 48.
Fox a 45.
NBC a 45.
B+, A, A- rated (538) pollsters.
“Now what’s your plan to win over a majority of the vote in a majority of the seats to achieve the Greens vision?”
Be honest?
Absurdly, the same argument being run here on climate policy was also run on the asylum seeker debate: ie act like the liberals and appear heartless, otherwise you’ll never get voted in and therefore will never get to help the refugees.
What I think we can safely say is that this strategy is a proven failure: you’ve never got the red-neck vote through pretending to be heartless pricks, and worse, you just lose the progressives. This should not be a great revelation to anyone: double speak and spineless fence sitting on important generational issues like climate change will never go down well with the electorate.
Grow a spine and adopt a decisive, consistent and inspiring policy position for real action on climate change – would be my suggestion. To labor’s credit, I guess ditching Bill Shorten was an important step in that direction.
[“The Queen has been dragged by the Prime Minister’s unlawful prorogation into the place where, for decades, politicians have agreed she should never be — right into a domestic political argument.]
https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/media/humiliated-boris-johnson-faces-renewed-pressure-to-resign/news-story/53d142684d7df65c5d09ad2c14032bc2
[‘US President Donald Trump has responded to the Democrats’ fresh push to impeach him by embarking on a late night Twitter spree.’]
https://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/trump-impeachment-proceedings-announced/news-story/7d0b3aac875c766601cf8e8e2950953bhttps://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/trump-impeachment-proceedings-announced/news-story/7d0b3aac875c766601cf8e8e2950953b
E. G. Theodore @ #1749 Wednesday, September 25th, 2019 – 12:40 pm
I have just roused my self (be good now) from my after lunch nanny nap and am delighted to read your comment.
My investigation into the item in question will commence immediately as will hints to family as to my availability to attend a suitable soiree, funeral or mid winter ball where such attire could be displayed.
Although I believe that I have the power to thrill and delight my four year old great grandson with the intricacy of neckwear knotting.
Cravattes are not for me being of ever so humble origins.
Au revoir mon ami.
He’s a real one trick pony, isn’t he?
SK at 2.27
I was looking at the aggregated scores on 538. It may yet change to his benefit, but this reflects badly on Americans. But if impeachment proceedings are going to get him a victory on 2020, then I can’t see how he wouldn’t win anyway (subject to the economy not hitting rock bottom).
a r:
[‘He’s a real one trick pony, isn’t he?’]
Whoever founded Twitter has some explaining to do.
I think I prefer the Full Windsor Knot but the following item look OK although a Google shows a Mr. Clive Palmer resurrecting the Onassis knot – which for reasons of common decency I refrain from submitting to these sensitive pages.
More R & R for me. 😇☕
Scott Morrison is such an imposter of a decent man. He doesn’t give a damn about causing anxiety in kids.
[‘Joe Biden is making another false exculpatory statement. He said he was cleared. Maybe in his own mind or by the corrupt media. He has never been cleared or even investigated because the Clintons, Bidens et al believe they are all above the Law.
27.6K
8:45 AM – Sep 25, 2019 · Manhattan, NY’]
Rudy’s at it again. Delete the Clintons and Biden, insert Trump and Giuliani.
I hope that Marcia Langton’s critique of the Basic Welfare card will be published. She explained how the government did not carry through the original design by the Cunnanurra community.
Edit: at the Press Club today.
According to some, families that currently depend on coal for their livelihoods will be better off if their jobs disappear suddenly because of decisions in board rooms, with no transition period, no support, no investments in services and infrastructure in regional towns, no public sector job creation to make it easy for people to get different jobs, no provision of free education and training to help people move into different occupations.
The reasoning is that people only really care about whether a board room or a democratically elected government is calling the shots. The logic is that apparently people are very neoliberal by nature and would be content if their demise was due to a corporate decision rather than government decisions. According to these political geniuses the typical household in a coal mining town would rather have sudden turmoil with no support than gradual changes and heaps of support.
Labor runs a million miles away from owning their decisions. They want to con voters into believing that when coal mining jobs disappear it will be a purely corporate phenomenon with no connection to government policy.
Losing a livelihood sucks – no doubt about it – and voters will not give you credit because you are claiming that their pain has nothing to do with your policy stance. All that really matters to them is whether they end up with good livelihoods and services and whether they are well supported during the transition.
Labor is blowing this. As usual.
There is nothing clever, pragmatic, or mature about Labor’s approach to coal.
I think I might have mentioned this recently, a gap in the govt’s ability to plan for A.S.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/25/coalition-blocking-release-of-major-review-into-refugee-resettlement?CMP=share_btn_tw
I already had no time for Sam Newman, but I had no idea he was such an ignorant lowlife. OTOH if this is a trolling account, I apologise. (Edit: checked and it’s the ‘real’ Sam, facelift and all.)
lizzie @ #1791 Wednesday, September 25th, 2019 – 2:59 pm
Well, to be fair, he did specifically say he only wanted to protect “Australian” kids. The other kinds don’t suffer from it, apparently 🙁
‘Big A Adrian says:
Wednesday, September 25, 2019 at 2:15 pm
BW “Your PLAN is to get elected by 2040 so that you can phase out coal by 2030.”
Sounds like a strawman. Where did you get that from? Did you just make it up like you made up the bit about Greens allowing coal mining until 2040?’
No. I put the best possible gloss on the Greens current real rate of electoral improvement and pushed that out to 2040. I suggest you engage in your own reality test and do the same.
So, the extreme best real outcome for the Greens is that they triple their current vote to around 30% in 2040. They would then face a hostile Senate of course but they are well versed in abusing the Senate to bastardize OPs programs so they would know what awaits them there: the karma bus.
So the very earliest the Greens could conceivably Begin to phase out coal BY 2030 is to begin in 2040.
I say again. Do you spot the tiny difficulty with the credibility of the Greens?
lizzie @ #1796 Wednesday, September 25th, 2019 – 3:30 pm
Greta would be well pleased – she is clearly getting her message through to exactly the right kind of people. And those people are typically stupid enough to respond with such outrageous viciousness that everyone can clearly see them for exactly what they are.
Lizzie
Sam’s nickname is fossil and he openly supports Trump.
PlayerOne
The problem is that the people who matter to Morrison or Newman would be agreeing she is a brat.