In through the out door

Sarah Henderson returns to parliament via a Senate vacancy and a hotly contested preselection, as Coalition MPs blow bubbles on electoral “reform”.

Two brief news items to relate on Australian matters, as well as which we have the latest of Adrian Beaumont’s increasingly regular updates on the constitutional mess that is Brexit.

Sarah Henderson, who held the seat of Corangamite for the Liberals from 2013 until her defeat in May, will return to parliament today after winning preselection to fill Mitch Fifield’s Victorian Senate vacancy. This follows her 234-197 win in a party vote held on Saturday over Greg Mirabella, a Wangaratta farmer and the husband of former Indi MP Sophie Mirabella. After initial expectations that Henderson was all but assured of the spot, Mirabella’s campaign reportedly gathered steam in the lead-up to Saturday’s vote, resulting in a late flurry of public backing for Henderson from Scott Morrison, Josh Frydenberg, Jeff Kennett, Michael Kroger and Michael Sukkar.

Also, The Australian reports Queensland Liberal Senator James McGrath will push for the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters, of which he is the chair, to consider abolishing proportional representation in the Senate and replacing it with a system in which each state is broken down into six provinces, each returning a single member at each half-Senate election – very much like the systems that prevailed in the state upper houses of Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia in the bad old days before the advent of proportional representation.

Ostensibly motivated by a desire to better represent the regions, such a system would result in a Senate dominated as much as the House of Representatives by the major parties, at a time of ongoing erosion in public support for them. The Australian’s report further quotes Nationals Senator Perin Davey advocating the equally appalling idea of rural vote weighting for the House. The kindest thing that can be said about both proposals is that they are not going to happen, although the latter would at least give the High Court an opportunity to take a stand for democracy by striking it down.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,838 comments on “In through the out door”

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  1. nath @ #2694 Tuesday, September 17th, 2019 – 4:51 pm

    Labor could have had a successful multi-term government but decided to depose a PM after a few bad polls because he didn’t have factional backing and was in the way of some very ambitious people who wanted to go up a peg or two.

    ‘he’ is Rudd I presume …?

    The man was a flop who had paralysed the Govt. He had to go.

    His resulting behaviour showed clearly his unsuitability to be PM.

  2. AM… Labor have to fight the Greens as hard as they fight the Lib-Libs. That’s the guts of it. The Lib-kin purport to be Labor-positive. They’re not. They’re Labor-hostile. It’s high time Labor set out to defeat the Greens with just as much commitment as the Greens show in their campaign against Labor.

  3. briefly @ #2702 Tuesday, September 17th, 2019 – 4:59 pm

    AM… Labor have to fight the Greens as hard as they fight the Lib-Libs. That’s the guts of it. The Lib-kin purport to be Labor-positive. They’re not. They’re Labor-hostile. It’s high time Labor set out to defeat the Greens with just as much commitment as the Greens show in their campaign against Labor.

    Labor should first focus on the enemy within – their donors.

  4. AM…I did not ‘mark down’ the Greens for campaigning to their mob. I simply remarked on what they’re doing. This is fair comment. It’s not a negative statement. Labor have responded in the past to the Greens by pretending they don’t exist. This is a failed strategy. The Lib-kin sap Labor’s strength all the time. It’s necessary for Labor to face to this and respond to it.

  5. “Mathias Cormann to front Senate over Gladys Liu”

    I can’t imagine that this will result in anything but a whole lot of Belgian waffle, defensive accusations against Labor, and Pontius Pilate-like washings of hands.

  6. Rex Douglas says:
    Tuesday, September 17, 2019 at 4:55 pm

    nath @ #2694 Tuesday, September 17th, 2019 – 4:51 pm

    Labor could have had a successful multi-term government but decided to depose a PM after a few bad polls because he didn’t have factional backing and was in the way of some very ambitious people who wanted to go up a peg or two.

    ‘he’ is Rudd I presume …?

    The man was a flop who had paralysed the Govt. He had to go.

    His resulting behaviour showed clearly his unsuitability to be PM.
    _______________________
    I was no fan of Rudd. But looking at it in purely party political terms dumping him was a disaster.

  7. nath @ #2706 Tuesday, September 17th, 2019 – 5:07 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Tuesday, September 17, 2019 at 4:55 pm

    nath @ #2694 Tuesday, September 17th, 2019 – 4:51 pm

    Labor could have had a successful multi-term government but decided to depose a PM after a few bad polls because he didn’t have factional backing and was in the way of some very ambitious people who wanted to go up a peg or two.

    ‘he’ is Rudd I presume …?

    The man was a flop who had paralysed the Govt. He had to go.

    His resulting behaviour showed clearly his unsuitability to be PM.
    _______________________
    I was no fan of Rudd. But looking at it in purely party political terms dumping him was a disaster.

    Labor got a bounce in the polls when Gillard was installed.

    It all came undone when the campaign of revenge ensued.

  8. ‘I notice that teachers are not allowed to talk about it.’

    They’re not? Must have missed the memo. Certainly have heard teachers talking about discussing it with their classes.

    The school even made time at assembly for announcements about it (admittedly, made by students).

  9. The Labor vote has been sliding gradually lower for four or five decades, and it’s now reaching crisis point. By my reckoning, there have been just two federal elections where the Labor vote was lower than it was in 2019. They were 1901 and 1903, before the duopoly asserted itself.

    It’s scary that so many Labor members won’t acknowledge this as a problem, or if they do that it’s a minor problem that’ll sort itself out if they can just communicate their message better. Or it’s all the Greens’ fault. And anybody with any advice can just flick off.


  10. guytaur says:
    Tuesday, September 17, 2019 at 4:17 pm

    Labor the party arguing why something can’t be done.
    Not the party fighting for change.

    Labor has to distance itself from the stunts, including exporting mining jobs to the USA.

    Labor has to sell the reality.

    If you think climate change is a real issue and it needs real solutions and the changes that are coming need competent management, that includes winding down coal employment as demand decreases and winding up the alternatives, vote Labor.

    If you think it isn’t happening vote Liberal.

    If you don’t think it is a serious issue, that a couple of stunts will do, vote Green.

    I’m sorry guytaur but the last statement is the reality, that is all the Greens can offer.

    The reality is, if you are serious about the issue and you have policy ideas you would be more effective joining Labor and getting involved in the policy committees.

    Yes there are a lot of members, you have to argue your case, which is not a bad thing, but if you get there, the result may have some affect on the outcome ( if Labor can overcome the damage being done by the Greens and the Liberals).

  11. It’s an understandable revenge. In any case a majority brought Rudd back when it suited them, so the propaganda about him being unsuitable to be PM is as hollow as if similar claims were made about Gillard when she was rolled.

  12. Zoomster

    Yes. I posted the Education Union tweet urging teachers to wear Green on Friday.

    I missed the teachers comment. Maybe they were talking about schools course work being changed to exclude education about the climate. Like those US dodgy ones that teach evolution is a crock.

    Whoever the commenter was.


  13. zoomster says:
    Tuesday, September 17, 2019 at 5:12 pm

    The school even made time at assembly for announcements about it (admittedly, made by students).

    As it should be, it is their show.

  14. nath @ #2711 Tuesday, September 17th, 2019 – 5:16 pm

    It’s an understandable revenge. In any case a majority brought Rudd back when it suited them, so the propaganda about him being unsuitable to be PM is as hollow as if similar claims were made about Gillard when she was rolled.

    Rudds re-installation was the end for me.

    You can’t sack a leader for incompetence (which he was re policy and leadership) then re-install him to save your own seat. It’s illogical.

  15. P1,

    Then you will have found your true home at last. Bliss for you.

    You’re just another aspirational, too good to participate and do the hard Yakka to effect change.

    It’s much, much easier for you to whinge from the sidelines. Actually doing something is just too much work for you I suppose.

    But, the rationalisation gymnastics you’ll provide for your decision should make an entertaining reading.

    Well done you!

  16. Perhaps the main Greens stunt at the 2022 election, which is only just around the corner, should be a Democracy Strike?

    After all, 90% of Australians persist in being wrong about the Greens. So they can all GAGF!

    Don’t run candidates. Don’t campaign. Don’t talk to the MSM. Don’t mention the election in social media. Make a bonfire of all their donations. Don’t sit in parliament. Resign all their MP and Senators. That sort of thing.

    Do an Aussie Sinn Fein.

  17. Rex

    There is definitely something illogical about we can’t tell voters the truth it means we will lose the election.

    This I assume is the same same about Labor and the LNP you go on about.

    Daniel Andrews on the East West Link in Melbourne and later with injecting rooms must be an aberration in the modern Labor party

  18. We have also had Brown of the Earthians, Milne the School Marm, and Di Natale (who built himself a brand new bungalow in the inner leafies), as well.

    Apparently no species were made extinct by Di Natale’s construction! How good is that?

    They were all about as popular as bedbugs with 90% of the electorate. What was it? Bad breath? Ridiculous policies? The hectoring? The supercilious condescension? What?

  19. ‘Ante Meridian says:
    Tuesday, September 17, 2019 at 5:12 pm

    The Labor vote has been sliding gradually lower for four or five decades, and it’s now reaching crisis point. By my reckoning, there have been just two federal elections where the Labor vote was lower than it was in 2019. They were 1901 and 1903, before the duopoly asserted itself.

    It’s scary that so many Labor members won’t acknowledge this as a problem, or if they do that it’s a minor problem that’ll sort itself out if they can just communicate their message better. Or it’s all the Greens’ fault. And anybody with any advice can just flick off.’

    Well, I acknowledge it. I don’t know any Labor supporters who don’t. There are a couple of ways to look at the situation. The first is that if Labor’s primary goes low enough the Coalition wins government. As it has done now for three elections in a row. The second way of looking at the situation is that the Greens are basically the difference between Labor’s before and after primary votes.

    I think we can safely assume that most of the loss of Labor’s primary vote went to the Greens primary vote.

    If so you might actually consider why, if splitting the vote this way is such a wonderful thing, the Coalition keeps gaining government.

    But anyway, keep bagging Labor. It seems to be working well for global warming, biodiversity and the Underclass!

  20. Rex.

    Sorry I forgot the good part about the Federal Party supporting Andrews over Dutton’s African Gangs thing. So we do know Labor can campaign with the truth Federally and help State Labor win an election

  21. nath
    “I was no fan of Rudd. But looking at it in purely party political terms dumping him was a disaster.”

    Unfortunately, I agree.

    Rudd was a dud, but dumping him was the greater of the two evils.

  22. frednk @ #2711 Tuesday, September 17th, 2019 – 5:15 pm

    … including exporting mining jobs to the USA.

    This would be a good line, if it wasn’t such complete and utter bollocks. If we are exporting jobs anywhere – which is debatable – it is certainly not to the USA.

    Labor has to sell the reality.

    Labor – or at least as Labor as portrayed by Labor people on this site – wouldn’t know what reality was if they fell over it 🙁

  23. My favourite election stunt is the G for Greens Dambusters.

    This one is absolutely guaranteed 100% to piss of the voters in 34 regional seats who are down to drinking their urine.

    Not that this matters to the Greens. They have no electoral prospects in the regional seats.

    The G for Greens Dambusters is all about wedging Labor in the Inner Leafies and growing the Greens vote at the current rate of around a per cent per election.

    That the consequences is an endless Coalition Government and open slather dam building is apparently neither here nor there for the Greens.

  24. guytaur @ #2722 Tuesday, September 17th, 2019 – 5:35 pm

    Rex.

    Sorry I forgot the good part about the Federal Party supporting Andrews over Dutton’s African Gangs thing. So we do know Labor can campaign with the truth Federally and help State Labor win an election

    Andrews is no saint, but he is far more politically assertive than Shorten ever was and I think voters respect that in leaders rather than a wishy washy approach.

  25. Greensborough Growler @ #2717 Tuesday, September 17th, 2019 – 5:23 pm

    You’re just another aspirational, too good to participate and do the hard Yakka to effect change.

    It’s much, much easier for you to whinge from the sidelines. Actually doing something is just too much work for you I suppose.

    Shall I list again the personal actions I have taken in response to the threat of global warming?

    No, on second thoughts, even I would find that too boring.

    Perhaps you could instead enrich us all by listing yours?

    That should fill the back of a postage stamp quite nicely!

  26. C@t

    However, what have the angry anti abortion crowds, led by Barnaby Joyce and Tony Abbott, two expert rabble rousers, achieved?

    From land clearing laws to threatened species to emissions reductions…. when it comes to the Coalition it is like the joke of which organ rules the human body…. the arsehole is almost always in charge.

  27. Orders from the Boss Lady.

    Pauline Hanson, who will be the deputy chair of the family court inquiry, also had this to say:

    “For those of you contemplating suicide, and facing potential family violence, I am asking you to stop.”

  28. I feel sorry for any Labor or Green MPs who sit on this committee with Kevin and Pauline and hope that they can bring some sense and argue that properly funding the Family Court is the single most important thing that they can recommend. Also that they will listen to the experts, ie the judges and registrars on the Family Court, the professional councillors who work with the Family Court, and not make it all “but men too”, and “we have to save the marriages at all cost”.

  29. Pell’s appealing.

    Appealing or seeking to appeal?
    Either way… what was the alternative? Sit it out and wear the conviction for life?

    Feels like Paine’s use of the DRS.

  30. simon holmes à court
    @simonahac
    ·
    9m
    please don’t say we need to save the planet!

    humans have been around for less than 1% of 1% of the earth’s existence — the earth will do just fine without us.

    what we’re trying to save is a climate that’s conducive to prosperous civilisation. not to be taken for granted!

  31. P1,

    Seriously, you think that is a comment of substance. You are so far up yourself, you’re coming out the other side.

    The sort of people I admire are Zoomster and Doyley who know the development of policy and implementation is difficult but still persist regardless. More power to their arms.

    You need to understand that you’re not the only person that does things at an individual level. Politics is about building a constituency. You have nothing to offer but glib oneliners to that process.

    You make lots of demands, but can’t be fussed doing the hardwork to make it happen at a political level. It’s much easier for you and your fellow travellers to whinge and say “Labor should”..

    The reality is that Labor won’t unless there are good, hardworking people prepared to do the hard yards. So you can abandon Labor. Big Deal. You were never really committed anyway. Our response is, “Don’t let the flyscreen hit you on the door on the way out”.

    Good luck with the Libs. I’m sure they’ll suit your inner denier. You and Craig Kelly will be great soulmates.

  32. re Robodebt

    The major problem with Robodebt has been that its main income assessment function is based on a fale premise, to whit, that a client’s income in a particular fortnight can be estimated by taking their annual income, as revealed in their Tax Return, and dividing by 26. The actual rules for receiving benefits are all based on income in a single, actual fortnight. All Newstart, Youth Allowance and Pension recipients are required to report their income (if any) each fortnight, and the payment they receive for that fortnight will be adjusted downwards if the income threshold is exceeded.

    Plainly, if a person on $52000 a year loses their job in, say, early February (week 30), having earned $30,000, it is totally unreasonable, and simply wrong in fact, to insist that, in the period from then to the end of the year, they were in receipt of $1150 a fortnight ($30,000/26), which they failed to declare. This is what the profoundly stupid Robodebt algorithm does.

    People who lose a job, go on the dole, then get another job, are hit with a demand to pay back all of the dole received, because of spurious, plain wrong, ‘averaging’. The robodebt algorithm would almost never get the calculation right.

    I have fought three cases like this, in person, for others, at The Entrance Centrelink Office. The attitude, and plain pig-headed ignorance of the staff is very hard to take.

    The Department of Human Degradation has been raising debts, and persecuting people based on false illogic.

  33. Katharine Murphy
    @murpharoo
    2h
    I strongly suspect the government will come to regret ever doing this. Just quietly #auspol
    ***

    Political Alert
    @political_alert
    · 2h
    The Prime Minister has announced the Government will undertake a Joint Parliamentary Committee of both the House and the Senate to conduct a wide-ranging inquiry into the family law system #auspol

  34. GG

    You know your party is in trouble when some partisans are claiming it’s beyond Labor to run a positive campaign on saving Life on Earth.

    You can even quote Sir David Attenborough about the Great Barrier Reef and the jobs threatened there. But no it’s too much for Labor.

    Instead it’s we must open a new coal mine.

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