In through the out door

Sarah Henderson returns to parliament via a Senate vacancy and a hotly contested preselection, as Coalition MPs blow bubbles on electoral “reform”.

Two brief news items to relate on Australian matters, as well as which we have the latest of Adrian Beaumont’s increasingly regular updates on the constitutional mess that is Brexit.

Sarah Henderson, who held the seat of Corangamite for the Liberals from 2013 until her defeat in May, will return to parliament today after winning preselection to fill Mitch Fifield’s Victorian Senate vacancy. This follows her 234-197 win in a party vote held on Saturday over Greg Mirabella, a Wangaratta farmer and the husband of former Indi MP Sophie Mirabella. After initial expectations that Henderson was all but assured of the spot, Mirabella’s campaign reportedly gathered steam in the lead-up to Saturday’s vote, resulting in a late flurry of public backing for Henderson from Scott Morrison, Josh Frydenberg, Jeff Kennett, Michael Kroger and Michael Sukkar.

Also, The Australian reports Queensland Liberal Senator James McGrath will push for the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters, of which he is the chair, to consider abolishing proportional representation in the Senate and replacing it with a system in which each state is broken down into six provinces, each returning a single member at each half-Senate election – very much like the systems that prevailed in the state upper houses of Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia in the bad old days before the advent of proportional representation.

Ostensibly motivated by a desire to better represent the regions, such a system would result in a Senate dominated as much as the House of Representatives by the major parties, at a time of ongoing erosion in public support for them. The Australian’s report further quotes Nationals Senator Perin Davey advocating the equally appalling idea of rural vote weighting for the House. The kindest thing that can be said about both proposals is that they are not going to happen, although the latter would at least give the High Court an opportunity to take a stand for democracy by striking it down.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,838 comments on “In through the out door”

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  1. Mr Vella-Arpaci allegedly stole the identities of people by riffling through their mail to obtain personal information.

    That information was then allegedly used to set up share trading accounts or new superannuation accounts. The investigators allege the new fake accounts then requested that money held in the old, genuine accounts were transferred to the new fake accounts.

    https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/melbourne-mother-21-charged-over-5-million-share-scam-20190917-p52s46.html

  2. briefly @ #2547 Tuesday, September 17th, 2019 – 12:46 pm

    Labor should vote against the Greens at every possible opportunity.

    Yes, that strategy will ensure that Labor continues to pick up preference flows of around 80% from Greens voters and can’t possibly backfire. 🙂

    Seriously, ~10% of the population gives their first preference vote to the Greens. ~0.2% of the population works in the coal industry. It’s not hard to work out which of those two groups it makes more sense to pander to. Labor is inexplicably pandering to the other one.

  3. Quoll

    The Greens only success is helping the Liberals keep power by providing the foil to paint Labor with.

    The Greens: we will make Labor do the Greens policy. Ya
    The Liberals: the Greens will make Labor do Greens policy. Boo

    Without being the Liberal’s useful idiots they Greens would have contributed nothing to Australian politics.

    It really is time for those interested in the environment to wake up and vote for actual action. Labor has delivered and at the state level is delivering. The Greens offer stunts and a foil used by the Liberal to keep power.

    I am open to counter examples.

  4. A reminder of the circumstances various animals and ecosystems have faced over the recent decade of mostly duopoly party, ALP-LNP, rule in Australia. It is of course all the Greens fault, constantly talking about it and pointing it out. Everything would be fine and out of mind, forgotten forever, not troubling us, if those Greens, scientists and many other people would just shut up about it all.

    This is what climate change looks like in Australia – in pictures
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/gallery/2019/sep/17/this-is-what-climate-change-looks-like-in-australia-in-pictures


  5. a r says:
    Tuesday, September 17, 2019 at 12:58 pm
    ..
    Yes, that strategy will ensure that Labor continues to pick up preference flows of around 80% from Greens voters and can’t possibly backfire.

    Which would suggest that 80% of Green voters are probable not keen on the Green’s policy of trying to destroy Labor.

  6. Imacca @12:13 PM.
    “If Shorten fronts anything like this the Govt will go all nasty / ridicule because its Bill. Which just emphasizes how cruel nasty and out of touch they are to prioritize nasty politics and “Kill Bill”over fixing the robodebt issue.”

    On past form, if there are legal problems with robdebt, the Government will lauch a huge campaign with Newsorp to double down on demonising and attacking welfare recipients, at the same time drafting retrospective legislation to address any legal problems which it will ram through the House and demand the Opposition pass as is in the Senate with minimal time for debate or review.


  7. Quoll says:
    Tuesday, September 17, 2019 at 1:00 pm

    A reminder of the circumstances various animals and ecosystems have faced over the recent decade of mostly duopoly party, ALP-LNP, rule in Australia
    ..

    And to prove my point Quoll steps up to the plate. Thank you

  8. ar….any association of Labor with the Greens taints the Labor brand. This has little to do with coal, which is just one of the many token issues the Greens use.

    The destruction of the Labor plurality is a result of the rise of the Greens. They are two sides of the one coin.

    There will be no hope for reformist politics in this country as long as the Greens ride shotgun for the Liberals. It’s always been difficult for Labor to win. It’s just about impossible now. The result is the reactionaries are installed in power and will hang on to it.

  9. Quoll:

    Tuesday, September 17, 2019 at 12:51 pm

    That was some rant. No doubt you’re feeling a lot better now you’ve got that off your chest.

    [‘…and apparently unemployed ALP drudges…’]

    More likely retired, or for whatever reason, have left the workforce – quite presumptuous of you.

  10. Kind of says that the Coalition believes droughts are going to be a permanent feature of Australia into the future that they have a designated Minister for Droughts. 😐

  11. Every time a legal challenge has been proposed against a robodebt assessment the government has cancelled the debt of the particular individual before it gets to court.

    No court case no chance for robodebt to be found unlawful and the government can just continue with it.

    Perhaps Shorten and Slater and Gordon will announce a class action to fuck up the government tactics.

  12. A post from that terribly ex Green MP

    @TonyHWindsor tweets

    We walked past the future eyes wide shut. https://twitter.com/mcannonbrookes/status/1173571589050261505

    @mcanonrooks tweets

    And just think how many jobs Australia could have here with our much longer ocean shelves… https://twitter.com/windoffshore/status/1173546428372791296

    @WindOffshore tweets

    New Norwegian report: The analysis shows that Norwegian-based industry for floating offshore wind has a value creation potential of between NOK 69 and 117 billion, with a potential employment effect of between 74,300 and 128,400 full-time equivalents. https://offshore-wind.no/news/flytende-havvind-kan-bli-norsk-milliardindustri/ https://twitter.com/WindOffshore/status/1173546428372791296/photo/1

  13. In case anyone has forgotten, in the century following WW1 Labor won federally from Opposition just four times. Of these wins, just one – the election of Hawke in 1983 – resulted in a successful multi-term Labor Government. The Governments of Scullin, Whitlam and Rudd all collapsed or were destroyed within 2 or 3 years. Labor changed Australia in the 20th century despite their disadvantages but the Liberals are changing the country back again. They are very good at campaigning, very good at winning, very good at fighting Labor. They have allies on the self-styled Left, the Greens, who also fight Labor all day/every day. We’re fucked by this dysfunction.

  14. lizzie:

    Tuesday, September 17, 2019 at 1:07 pm

    [‘What’s the Aussie equivalent of “steps up to the plate”?’]

    Probably to volunteer for an unpleasant task when no one else will.

  15. @TomMcIlroy tweets

    Gordon Legal will argue the Commonwealth must repay debts collected and provide compensation to people affected by robo-debt. Mr Shorten says a single algorithm can’t adequately assess thousands of debts #auspol

  16. [Perhaps Shorten and Slater and Gordon will announce a class action to fuck up the government tactics.]

    It is one thing for the ABC to spruik class actions as they used to do, but a pollie. Especially if it the standard action funded by foreign capital looking for above market returns.

    Gordon can just crowd fund an action to challenge the lawfulness of the process using a few test cases to cover the variables.

  17. Guytar
    A single algorithm can’t adequately assess thousands of debts, even if it wasn’t designed to find debts where none exist.
    There is so much that is wrong with this process,

  18. @murpharoo tweets

    .@billshortenmp says it would be smart for the government to suspend the scheme while this issue is considered in the class action #auspol

  19. You can come to the crease without batting immediately.

    Taking block means you are about to receive a delivery.

    I’d say that’s a better descriptor.

  20. @MikeySlezak tweets

    Next year, Australia is required to update its Paris commitment targets. They must “represent a progression over time” and reflect our “highest possible ambition”. Given that, I wonder what statements we’ll get from the government next week at the UN Climate Action Summit.

  21. Mr Shorten says a single algorithm can’t adequately assess thousands of debts #auspol

    Sigh. A single algorithm could do that, if it were properly designed and implemented for that purpose. That’s the whole point of an algorithm.

    The problem is that the government is using a (perhaps deliberately) deficient algorithm that finds inaccurate/inflated debt levels and that they’ve reversed the onus of proof so that debts are considered valid and owing until proven otherwise, not that an algorithm can’t be used to automate a task.

  22. William Bowe @ #2557 Tuesday, September 17th, 2019 – 1:03 pm

    Essential Research latest. Still no voting intention. Morrison’s approval ratings steady, Albanese’s down a bit.
    https://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Essential-Report-160919.pdf

    I think it’s a matter of when, not if, ScoMo’s credibility crashes quickly in the eyes of voters.

    He’s a snake oil salesman currently enjoying a honey moon period helped along by a comatose Opposition.

    The likes of Bolt et al will work towards replacing him with someone they deem appropriate, which I don’t think they feel ScoMo is.

  23. Hundreds of thousands of robodebt victims have payed up where they did not have any debt simply because the processes to challenge are opaque and arduous even for someone who is not amongst the most vulnerable in our society.

  24. My son was sent a Robodebt letter soon after he started work for the princely sum of $144.87. Who would waste their time challenging that? He just paid up.

  25. ‘A class action lawsuit will be launched against the Government over the Centrelink robodebt recovery system, alleging the scheme is illegal’ – source, ABC


  26. guytaur says:
    Tuesday, September 17, 2019 at 1:21 pm

    @MikeySlezak tweets

    Next year, Australia is required to update its Paris commitment targets. They must “represent a progression over time” and reflect our “highest possible ambition”. Given that, I wonder what statements we’ll get from the government next week at the UN Climate Action Summit.

    Very Good. Congratulations.

  27. ar

    Mr Shorten says a single algorithm can’t adequately assess thousands of debts #auspol

    Sigh. A single algorithm could do that, if it were properly designed and implemented for that purpose. That’s the whole point of an algorithm.

    Hmm – I still think you would need many algorithms to do the job properly. But maybe these are better termed functions.

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