Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings take a hit, but no change on the voting intention headline in the third poll since the great federal election miss.

As related by The Australian, the third Newspoll since the fall is unchanged on the second, conducted three weeks ago, in showing the Coalition with a two-party lead of 51-49. The primary votes are Coalition 43% (41.4% at the election), Labor 35% (33.4%), Greens 12% (10.4%) and One Nation 5% (3.1%, although they did not contest every seat at the election). All four are up a point compared with the previous poll, reflected in a four point drop in “others” to 5%. I’m struggling to identify the last time Newspoll had the Greens at 12% – certainly not at any point in the last term (UPDATE: It was in March 2016).

Scott Morrison is up a point on approval to 49%, after dropping three points last time, and his disapproval is up three to 39%, which is still three down on the first poll after the election. Anthony Albanese records a net negative rating for the first time, being down six on approval to 35% (after gaining two last time), and up six on disapproval to 40% (after dropping two last time). Morrison’s preferred prime minister lead is reportedly at 20%, compared with 18% last time, although the exact numbers are not yet provided (UPDATE: Morrison’s lead has increased from 48-30 to 48-28).

The poll comes with a glimmer of improved transparency, in that we are told exactly how many respondents came from its online survey (956) and automated phone poll (705) components. It was conducted from Thursday to Sunday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,523 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

  1. I have a feeling Anthony Albanese is going to get lucky, given the sort of economic downturn I have been predicting will happen in Australia in the next three years.

    The ‘Quiet Australians’ will certainly have baseball bats out for the Morrison government, after many losing their jobs and even homes in an economic crisis similar to what Ireland experienced during the Global Financial Crisis. Not to mention the Morrison government imposing mind numbing austerity to pay for a possible bank bailout.

    Even if Labor loses some inner city seats to the Greens, they could win many more in the outer suburbs and provincial cities.

  2. Then it makes the prospect of some radical backbencher becoming leader of the Labor Party. This happened in Britain with their Labour Party when the ordinary members were given sole power to elect the party leadership.

    God forbid.

    It’s okay, no doubt a Chris Bowen leadership will attract a huge influx of passionate new members.

  3. swamprat @ #1230 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 12:44 pm

    From The Guardian:

    “Journalist: Will you be supporting the motion from the crossbench re this climate emergency?

    Terri Butler: Well, it’s actually up to the government to decide whether there will be a declaration of a climate emergency, and frankly, I don’t have any confidence that they even believe in climate change.

    They’ve had their own minister out there saying that he’s not sure whether manmade climate change exists, he doesn’t know whether it’s even real.

    How can we be confident that this government will take any action on climate change, or take any serious action whatsoever, when they’ve got science-denying ministers in their own frontbench, which is threatening the prosperity of our country.

    Journalist: Will you be voting for the motion?

    Terri Butler: Well, as I say, it’s a matter for the government whether there is a climate emergency declaration.”

    Thank the gods we have the Labor Party with its inspiring convictions and tenacity in holding the Government to account! (Possible sarcasm)

    Good grief !

    They’re hopelessly paralysed.

  4. Player One @ #1246 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 1:02 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1241 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 12:59 pm

    But, it does give them the opportunity to regurgitate their mantras of mush of which they never seem to tire.

    Not to mention giving Labor yet another opportunity to look conflicted and weak, which seems to be their new mantra.

    That’s sure to win them the next election 🙁

    Labor playing adult in the room is a sure fire way to success.

    The Greens and their fellow whingers can blather on (which I know you’ll keep doing).

    Labor will just take the preferences and ignore the silly rhetoric.

    Cheers!

  5. sprocket

    “Terri Butler is saying that stunts being voted down are as useless as a tinker’s cuss.

    The correct response is as she says, ‘the Coalition is in power, Morrison is the PM, why aren’t they doing something?’

    But this is too nuanced for Green supporting dunces to comprehend.”
    ——————
    Do you believe any and all resolutions by Parliament are “stunts”? Or just the ones you feel uncomfortable about?

    I do not identify as a “Greens supporting” voter though I do support some of their policies.

    I am not denying, I may be a “dunce” in not recognising Labor’s superbly subtle and unerringly successful political tactics, nuanced to the hilt as they are. 🙂

  6. Michael Koziol @michaelkoziol
    ·
    3m
    Asked by @Paul_Karp if Labor will still guarantee it won’t vote for anything that waters down LGBTI rights, shadow AG Mark Dreyfus says: “I don’t want to give an absolutely clear answer to Paul’s excellent question.” #auspol #NPC

  7. Dreyfus:

    We do have to review the way in which we campaigned, we do have to review the policies we took to the people at the last election. That’s an entirely appropriate process for us to be engaging in.

    And might I say – we are not going to win the 2022 election by making announcements right here and now – or for me to make an announcement at the Press Club of what our policies are going to be.

    I suppose that’s fair enough.

  8. Watermelon @ #1159 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 10:55 am

    it’s not backbone for Labor to advocate for tax increases, it’s insanity

    It’s insanity to advocate for tax increases just so that the money can uselessly pad a budget surplus. Thanks Bowen! Can’t wait for you to become leader.

    Bowen was happy to let the starving and destitute on Newstart stay that way until he got his ‘bigger and better’ budget surpluses.
    That sums him up.

  9. lizzie @ #1259 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 11:17 am

    Michael Koziol @michaelkoziol
    ·
    3m
    Asked by @Paul_Karp if Labor will still guarantee it won’t vote for anything that waters down LGBTI rights, shadow AG Mark Dreyfus says: “I don’t want to give an absolutely clear answer to Paul’s excellent question.” #auspol #NPC

    How good is that at making a principled stance? Very nuanced indeed. Queensland coal miners will be lining up in droves to vote for that.

  10. Player One @ #1256 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 1:08 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1254 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 1:06 pm

    Labor will just take the preferences and ignore the silly rhetoric.

    When Labor’s policies begin to look as incoherent as the Greens, it is the Coalition that benefits, you nong!

    You’ve said that a great number of times for absolutely no impact. I doubt Labor will be taking advice from people like you who only have doom and gloom in their hearts and asinine commentary to offer.

  11. Greensborough Growler:

    Good to see Frank’s still around. Dem were the days. I was posting under a different screen name in those days but I can’t recall which one, could have been “Charlton”(?)

  12. The @Greens condemn in the strongest possible terms Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s announcement that he plans to annex nearly a third of the Occupied West Bank should he win the Israeli election next week.— Richard Di Natale (@RichardDiNatale) September 11, 2019

    Rather than shrinking into silence, the Australian Government should loudly condemn Netanyahu’s actions. Annexation is illegal under international law, just as Israeli settlements are.— Richard Di Natale (@RichardDiNatale) September 11, 2019

    The Israeli Prime Minister should recognise that this craven attempt to win re-election will only further isolate Israel.— Richard Di Natale (@RichardDiNatale) September 11, 2019

    Well said.

  13. Greensborough Growler:

    [‘I used to post using my indigenous name.’]

    May I ask what that was?

    From memory, you’ve contributed to this site since it opened. I can only recall you as Greensborough Growler.

  14. I didn’t realise that Gladys Liu is a Pentacostal mate.

    @AaronDodd
    51m

    I don’t care at all that #GladysLiu was born in China. I do however have serious concerns about;
    1. Her highly-suspect financial dealings
    2. Her Pentecostalism
    3. Her homophobia
    4. Her competence in general.
    #auspol

  15. lizzie @ #1274 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 1:56 pm

    I didn’t realise that Gladys Liu is a Pentacostal mate.

    @AaronDodd
    51m

    I don’t care at all that #GladysLiu was born in China. I do however have serious concerns about;
    1. Her highly-suspect financial dealings
    2. Her Pentecostalism
    3. Her homophobia
    4. Her competence in general.
    #auspol

    The perfect candidate for the you-know-which Party.

  16. The Australian Senate declaring a climate emergency means SFA.
    When you focus on the stunts, is it any wonder that too many Australians have decided to tune out, and have decided that none of it really matters?

    Adelaide City Council have put out a tender for a full risk assessment on the climate emergency impacts on Council.
    Yay?

  17. Greensborough Growler @ #1264 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 1:22 pm

    You’ve said that a great number of times for absolutely no impact.

    And you know that … how, exactly?

    I doubt Labor will be taking advice from people like you who only have doom and gloom in their hearts and asinine commentary to offer.

    And I’ll bet that they are paying much more attention to people like me than they are to people like you, who they already know will be voting Labor no matter what.

    Labor are not playing to you, in case you never realized that.

  18. June 2019
    The City of Sydney formally declares a ‘climate emergency’.

    Sydney is the latest council to declare a climate emergency, following global cities London, Auckland, Vancouver, and hundreds of others.

    The City of Sydney said it was the country’s first carbon-neutral council in 2007.

    By next year, it will use 100 per cent renewable energy and plans to meet its 2030 target of cutting emissions by 70 per cent six years early in 2024.

    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/city-of-sydney-officially-declares-climate-emergency-20190625-p520zd.html

  19. Michael McCormack appears to have sprinkled too much sugar on his weetbix this morning, as he gets very worked up at Joel Fitzgibbon over not caring about farmers. He screams that Fitzgibbon is “a disgrace”. Fitzgibbon gets upset. The chamber is upset, but at different things.

  20. What doing something does – horses for courses there of course, a horse is a horse of course of course – is that it makes you feel better.

    And feeling better is, like, good for you, per se. Health wise.

  21. Brett Worthington @BWorthington_
    ·
    1m
    Marise Payne says any suggestion that Gladys Liu isn’t a “fit and proper” MP is offensive, citing she won her seat at an election.

    I didn’t realise that every elected MP is automatically cleansed of all sin.

  22. Haven’t seen the stoush, but farmers are on the defensive. Their future is looking bleak, and their assertion that ‘they know best’ what’s good for the country isn’t going to stand the test of time. Expect more of this.

    (edit: minor grammar)

  23. It appears the MP for Chisholm is becoming more gaffe prone.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/liberal-mp-gladys-liu-says-she-was-not-clear-in-gaffe-ridden-interview-20190911-p52q93.html#comments

    She needs to smarten up quickly before the Opposition hone in on her competence, links, beliefs, etc.

    What sort of media training, etc is provided to new MPs.

    If I was the Opposition I would make the Member of Chisholm a definite target for attention in QT.

    Constantly.

    Given the relative thin majority the Morrisson government has there will be some seasoned MPs in the LNP less than impressed with the newly minted MP’s performance.

    Furthermore the recent stories in the Age here in Melbourne re the appalling treatment of a former Iranian asylum seeker by the husband and wife owners of a confectionery business in Box Hill which is smack in the middle of the MP for Chisholm’s seat … could be interesting.

  24. “Marise Payne says any suggestion that Gladys Liu isn’t a “fit and proper” MP is offensive, citing she won her seat at an election.”

    Then Marise must think that Eddie Obeid and Craig Thomsen were also “fit and proper” MPs, given their election. So should Labor not have expelled them?

  25. Tristo

    Like you I think we are headed for recession, as surely as Trump and Scomo are “compromised men”. I will struggle to feel sorry for those who voted for Scomo’s lies,since they were of the “appeal to greed” kind.

    In that regard, one place that is particularly suffering from disasters made more likely by the actions of its own poorly chosen governments, (whether LNP or ersatz Labor) is Queensland. They forget that in the past Gillard Labor bailed them out of cyclone damage repair bills with a $6 billion national tax levy, not to mention ongoing generous capital grants. With another multi-billion repair bill looming and summer not even here, I wonder if Scomo will be as generous?
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-19/climate-change-and-the-cost-of-qlds-summer-of-disasters/10826122

  26. Good to see Frank’s still around. Dem were the days. I was posting under a different screen name in those days but I can’t recall which one, could have been “Charlton”(?)

    Pick a name, any name, Mavis.

    For someone who claims to be able to remember exactly who was (and who allegedly wasn’t) posting 12 years ago, forgetting your own nom de plume from that time is a pretty yawning gap in your cover story legend of being one of the Old PB Guard.

    You seem to have played “sock-puppet” so many times that you’ve forgotten who you really are supposed to be… which is convenient, but hardly very convincing.

    If you’re going to tell a lie at least get your story straight first.

  27. So, there has been some goalpost shifting going on in Question Time today by Scott Morrison when it comes to his MP, Guandong Gladys.

    Apparently, it’s okay for her to have been a member of these Chinese organisations of influence, even if ‘in name only’ *cough*. The standard now, according to Morrison is whether ‘money was exchanged’ a la Sam Dastyari accepting money to pay his legal bills from an alleged Chinese Agent of Influence.

    Also, not whether one denies thrice the nature of China’s antics in the South China Sea (only to be put straight the next day via a press release released on Twitter out of the PMO with her name attached to it.

    I would add to this that I hope no one digs up whether Ms Liu received a per diem or honarium PAYMENT for her ghost presence on any of these Chinese organisations of influence. Scott Morrison might have to shift the goalposts some more.

  28. Quite a good character analysis of Boris Johnson.

    AJVC199110h ago
    Guardian Pick

    “”
    BoJo a fan of Ancient Greece; he will see the Greek myth in all this; a man consumed by his only desire.

    This was always a genuine issue with much of the prominent Brexiteers; they had this genuine zealot like belief that they only reason they were not getting the deal they wanted was because they did not collectively believe enough. They continued to double down and purge, believe harder, and nothing changed.

    Johnson’s undying belief was different, he is not capable of believing in anything other than himself with such vigour. And that has been his shining light.

    The fact will always remain, outside of the Single Market, May’s Deal is the best deal we will ever get. That is an immutable fact. No amount of belief will change the EU’s desire to protect the single market and ensure there is no hard border.

    Even Labour are coming around to this fact – “tweaking” May’s Deal.

    I suspect Johnson knew this, but his desire to become PM overrode any sense of patriotic duty and he made a Faustian pact with the ERG and Cummings to unleash absolute Chaos with this No Deal debacle. You can see it in his eyes, he knows what he has done, this Golem he has created.

    A man desperate to be loved, loathed. A man desperate for power, powerless, a man desperate for respect, ridiculed.

    He is a man trapped in his worst hell.

    Sadly we are sharing it with him.

  29. She’s actually admitting to being a member now?

    Yesterday the story was that she “couldn’t recall”, like “Mavis” can’t recall.

    So “nothing to see here” when an ex-official of an organization set up by the Chinese government specifically to infiltrate/ influence foreign governments – from as recently as 2015 – suddenly turns up as the miracle poster girl of the Morrison government?

  30. Rex is disappointed that the Chinese don’t duchesse the Greens, probably for 2 reasons:

    1. The Greens have no hope of ever gaining power.
    2. The Trotskyists have already infiltrated.

    And with the talk of Bibi Netanyahu annexing the West Bank Jordan Valley (which as an aside, I have been to), the long running program of the Israeli State in inviting junior MPs from both sides to visit Israel on fully paid study tours may pay dividends in times like these.

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