Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings take a hit, but no change on the voting intention headline in the third poll since the great federal election miss.

As related by The Australian, the third Newspoll since the fall is unchanged on the second, conducted three weeks ago, in showing the Coalition with a two-party lead of 51-49. The primary votes are Coalition 43% (41.4% at the election), Labor 35% (33.4%), Greens 12% (10.4%) and One Nation 5% (3.1%, although they did not contest every seat at the election). All four are up a point compared with the previous poll, reflected in a four point drop in “others” to 5%. I’m struggling to identify the last time Newspoll had the Greens at 12% – certainly not at any point in the last term (UPDATE: It was in March 2016).

Scott Morrison is up a point on approval to 49%, after dropping three points last time, and his disapproval is up three to 39%, which is still three down on the first poll after the election. Anthony Albanese records a net negative rating for the first time, being down six on approval to 35% (after gaining two last time), and up six on disapproval to 40% (after dropping two last time). Morrison’s preferred prime minister lead is reportedly at 20%, compared with 18% last time, although the exact numbers are not yet provided (UPDATE: Morrison’s lead has increased from 48-30 to 48-28).

The poll comes with a glimmer of improved transparency, in that we are told exactly how many respondents came from its online survey (956) and automated phone poll (705) components. It was conducted from Thursday to Sunday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,523 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

  1. Another way of looking at it is that while Australia’s GHG emissions are 1.28% of the total, if all the countries with GHG emissions of less than 2% of total combined, then that would account for about 1/3 of the total.

    Anyway, the planet is doing what the planet has to do. Incrementally or exponentially or whatever, but certainly not by happenstance. It needs to rid itself of the greed, and avarice, and the lack of insight, and arrogance, and the stupidity of faith, that is destroying it. That’s how negative feed back loops work. And it ain’t going to be pretty.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDo3J7fHaDY

  2. Player One says:
    Wednesday, September 11, 2019 at 11:44 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1186 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 11:36 am

    You’re just a cheerleader like P1, with little understanding of the Science you love to wave in the air.

    If you can’t be bothered even trying to understand the science, why do you post on the subject?

    😆 😆 😆 😆

    How many times have I had explain basic Meteorology to you?

  3. No wonder I turn so often to cooking shows so often. Never used to. But at least they have a story with a purpose, and everyone can agree whether the cake is burnt or not.

  4. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, September 11, 2019 at 11:59 am

    Barney

    I did not say close existing coal mines. I said don’t open new ones.

    The key word is new. Your counterpoint is thus irrelevant.

    Your having problems reading now!

    I said coal plants, not coal mines.

  5. Barney

    As I said irrelevant. No new Coal Mine. Stop Adani. Stop deregulating environmental tests just so it can proceed. Stop the green lighting of a new coal mine.

  6. Player One says:
    Wednesday, September 11, 2019 at 12:08 pm

    Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery @ #1202 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 11:59 am

    How many times have I had explain basic Meteorology to you?

    How many times have I tried to explain the difference between weather and climate to you?

    You may have “tried”, but as you have little idea, it was beyond you.

    Anyway, remember it being covered quite well by my professor in 2nd year.

  7. Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery @ #1210 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 12:15 pm

    Player One says:
    Wednesday, September 11, 2019 at 12:08 pm

    Barney in the rabbit hole of fuckwittery @ #1202 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 11:59 am

    How many times have I had explain basic Meteorology to you?

    How many times have I tried to explain the difference between weather and climate to you?

    You may have “tried”, but as you have little idea, it was beyond you.

    Anyway, remember it being covered quite well by my professor in 2nd year.

    Did your Dip Ed professor explain to you the difference between your and you’re?

  8. adrian

    I only found that one recently — such a contrast to the Aus version. Hard to explain to someone who hasn’t watched it, but less faux excitement, less exaggeration, less promo, and definitely not so many “celebrities”. Cheaper to make, I suspect. Quietly enjoyable.

  9. Amy

    The Big Aussie BBQ is on in parliament today, raising awareness for prostate cancer.

    Scott Morrison will attend.

    Prepare for Morrison with BBQ tongs photos. There will absolutely be a “how good” face.

  10. Oh dear. I don’t understand.

    @firstdogonmoon
    ·
    19m
    i’m excited for the ALP vote against declaring a climate emergency because I want to see how utterly batshit craven they can get – let’s take it all the way people – stand for something even if it is standing for nothing

  11. If the Australian Labor party decides to give more power to the ordinary members, say for example; ordinary members paying a small fee to join the party and they alone electing the party leadership.

    Then it makes the prospect of some radical backbencher becoming leader of the Labor Party. This happened in Britain with their Labour Party when the ordinary members were given sole power to elect the party leadership.

  12. @MarekRivers
    ·
    50m
    Thinking of dear Gladys Liu has me pondering the amount of vetting I had to endure to obtain & keep the highest security clearances working for DFAT. Parliamentarians have potential access to such material without any criminal, character, or reference checks. How Good Is That?

  13. lizzie @ #1213 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 12:19 pm

    adrian

    I only found that one recently — such a contrast to the Aus version. Hard to explain to someone who hasn’t watched it, but less faux excitement, less exaggeration, less promo, and definitely not so many “celebrities”. Cheaper to make, I suspect. Quietly enjoyable.

    Yes, the judges seemed to genuinely want to help the participants rather than trying for faux drama and controversy. Very refreshing.

  14. Big Aussie BBQ.

    I am expecting Michael Sukkar to be in attendance Tongs in hand for the photo shoot and then to duck off quickly away before actually turning over a snag occurs…

  15. Tristo

    That leader Mr Corbyn is in control of UK politics right now. Johnson is looking the right fool.

    Mr Corbyn could see the end of the Tory party as a result.

    Maybe giving members the vote over the leadership is actually the right way to go. Even though as I have said previously I like the Labor compromise.

  16. C@tmomma @ #1155 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 10:53 am

    I bet the toy drones are made out of plastic as well. Which is made from…fossil fuels. So, by contributing to the use of more fossil fuels they are going to be used to protest…the use of fossil fuels by airplanes and the emissions they create. 🙄

    The drone thing is stupid, but not because drones are made from plastic. A better way to protest air travel would be to not travel by air. Or buy the carbon offset when you book your ticket.

    briefly @ #1080 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 9:31 am

    My view on refugees is that they are politically-exploited by the Liberals and the Greens.

    Odd that when the Liberals and the Greens do things it’s always political exploitation. Of refugees. Of coal workers. Of whatever.

    But apparently Labor never exploits anything for political purposes. And their post-election pandering to the coal industry is purely genuine and not because Labor hopes to entice coal workers back into voting for them. 🙄

  17. From The Guardian:

    “Journalist: Will you be supporting the motion from the crossbench re this climate emergency?

    Terri Butler: Well, it’s actually up to the government to decide whether there will be a declaration of a climate emergency, and frankly, I don’t have any confidence that they even believe in climate change.

    They’ve had their own minister out there saying that he’s not sure whether manmade climate change exists, he doesn’t know whether it’s even real.

    How can we be confident that this government will take any action on climate change, or take any serious action whatsoever, when they’ve got science-denying ministers in their own frontbench, which is threatening the prosperity of our country.

    Journalist: Will you be voting for the motion?

    Terri Butler: Well, as I say, it’s a matter for the government whether there is a climate emergency declaration.”

    Thank the gods we have the Labor Party with its inspiring convictions and tenacity in holding the Government to account! (Possible sarcasm)

  18. Yep. I daresay Bolton wasnt liking the idea of the Taliban being invited to camp David.

    Rick Wilson
    @TheRickWilson
    ·
    8m
    Grandpa Ranty is going to spend his morning hoovering up adderal and ragetweeting.
    Quote Tweet

    Jo
    @JoJoFromJerz
    · 5h
    Replying to @TheRickWilson and @gtconway3d
    What’s the going bet on how long it takes @realDonaldTrump to start tweeting moronic vitriol at Bolton… tonight? Tomorrow, after his Fox and Friends Intelligence Briefing…?

    What will he nickname him?
    “Boring Bolton”
    “Mr. Mustache”
    Obviously, “not a fan”, is coming…

  19. A glorious Melbourne Spring day. Temperature hovering around 20, clear blue sky and a zephyr of a breeze. Just came back from a walk along the Plenty River. Plenty of new growth and a great selection of birdlife to observe. Life is great in the Paradise called Greensborough.

  20. The Australian Senate declaring a climate emergency means SFA.

    When you focus on the stunts, is it any wonder that too many Australians have decided to tune out, and have decided that none of it really matters?

  21. Victoria @ #1233 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 12:49 pm

    Yep. I daresay Bolton wasnt liking the idea of the Taliban being invited to camp David.

    Rick Wilson
    @TheRickWilson
    ·
    8m
    Grandpa Ranty is going to spend his morning hoovering up adderal and ragetweeting.
    Quote Tweet

    Jo
    @JoJoFromJerz
    · 5h
    Replying to @TheRickWilson and @gtconway3d
    What’s the going bet on how long it takes @realDonaldTrump to start tweeting moronic vitriol at Bolton… tonight? Tomorrow, after his Fox and Friends Intelligence Briefing…?

    What will he nickname him?
    “Boring Bolton”
    “Mr. Mustache”
    Obviously, “not a fan”, is coming…

    Trump’s game plan might be to take on the feral right war mongers to position himself as relatively moderate in comparison. This might be the beginning of a strategy to make himself more cuddly and appealing.

  22. Terri Butler is saying that stunts being voted down are as useless as a tinker’s cuss.

    The correct response is as she says, ‘the Coalition is in power, Morrison is the PM, why aren’t they doing something?’

    But this is too nuanced for Green supporting dunces to comprehend.

  23. sprocket_
    says:
    But this is too nuanced for Green supporting dunces to comprehend.
    ____________________________
    The stooges have been trumpeting Labor nuance for quite a while now. How’s it working out for you?

  24. @guytaur

    Indeed the British Conservative Party is being destroyed as we speak. I predict the Liberal Democrats will replace the Conservatives as the main ‘center-right’ party in Britain.

    In my opinion the Johnson government is exactly like what would happened to a Peter Dutton led Coalition government. Given our preferential voting system as opposed to first past the post in Britain, Labor would have won in a massive landslide in an election held, after a no confidence vote where some Liberal MP’s crossed the floor.

  25. sprocket_ @ #1237 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 12:56 pm

    Terri Butler is saying that stunts being voted down are as useless as a tinker’s cuss.

    The correct response is as she says, ‘the Coalition is in power, Morrison is the PM, why aren’t they doing something?’

    But this is too nuanced for Green supporting dunces to comprehend.

    But, it does give them the opportunity to regurgitate their mantras of mush of which they never seem to tire.

  26. And then Labor could support the Greens stunt, like they supported the unconstitutional National Integrity Commission Bill which actually passed the Senate. And now going nowhere due to lack of numbers in the Reps.

    How good is that!

  27. Frank Calabrese
    @Frankscan1965
    ·
    6m
    @GBoroughGrowler
    Yes I’m lurking -Mavis Davissays:
    Wednesday, September 11, 2019 at 11:05 am
    Some of the posts this morning are more usually seen after dark. I wonder if Labor stalwart Frank lurks?

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