Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings take a hit, but no change on the voting intention headline in the third poll since the great federal election miss.

As related by The Australian, the third Newspoll since the fall is unchanged on the second, conducted three weeks ago, in showing the Coalition with a two-party lead of 51-49. The primary votes are Coalition 43% (41.4% at the election), Labor 35% (33.4%), Greens 12% (10.4%) and One Nation 5% (3.1%, although they did not contest every seat at the election). All four are up a point compared with the previous poll, reflected in a four point drop in “others” to 5%. I’m struggling to identify the last time Newspoll had the Greens at 12% – certainly not at any point in the last term (UPDATE: It was in March 2016).

Scott Morrison is up a point on approval to 49%, after dropping three points last time, and his disapproval is up three to 39%, which is still three down on the first poll after the election. Anthony Albanese records a net negative rating for the first time, being down six on approval to 35% (after gaining two last time), and up six on disapproval to 40% (after dropping two last time). Morrison’s preferred prime minister lead is reportedly at 20%, compared with 18% last time, although the exact numbers are not yet provided (UPDATE: Morrison’s lead has increased from 48-30 to 48-28).

The poll comes with a glimmer of improved transparency, in that we are told exactly how many respondents came from its online survey (956) and automated phone poll (705) components. It was conducted from Thursday to Sunday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,523 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

  1. Cat

    I see you are full of excuses about reality. Morrison leads a government that has reached its use by date.
    This will certainly be the case by the next one.

    Oh dear. Labor right is not always right about how to win campaigns. How sad!

  2. So the “malignant narcissist, fat orange blob, with the self-esteem of a small pidgeon” has finally done something good for humankind by sacking Dr. Strangelove Bolton, thereby probably averting war with Iran. A Bravo Zulu for the dolt.

  3. “Climate protesters have said they plan to deploy toy drones to ground flights and draw attention to aviation emissions.”

    This is exactly what we DON’T need. What a friggin’ stupid idea.

  4. I bet the toy drones are made out of plastic as well. Which is made from…fossil fuels. So, by contributing to the use of more fossil fuels they are going to be used to protest…the use of fossil fuels by airplanes and the emissions they create. 🙄

  5. C@tmomma @ #1135 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 10:35 am

    Because, lord knows, so many of us here have presented the reality to you and all the other Green Dream Believers, and some fairly sensible and nuanced positions, only to be immediately pooh poohed because we don’t ‘get’ the extremity of the situation.

    Despite your continued (and boring) attempts to paint it so, this is not a Labor/Green issue. If anything, it is an entirely internal Labor issue, because of Labor’s incoherent policies in this space. Even your own past and present leaders disagree on it. Both the Greens and the Coalitions policies actually make some sense, provided you accept their premises (I don’t, but many clearly do). Labor’s does not.

    You should read the article I just posted for GG’s edification. If it does not at least alarm you (it scares the pants off me!), then you clearly don’t get the “extremity of the situation”.

  6. Kakaru

    Thats a report from Germany. I thought you would know what DW news stands for.

    Its an example of what to expect if you think citizens are just going to sit quietly and ignore the climate emergency.

  7. @redrabbleeroz tweets

    Imagine thinking it is funny that people believe individuals should not be subjected to speculative “loyalty” tests regardless of their actual political beliefs https://twitter.com/drewpavlou/status/1171582288393453568

    It’s so funny that the Australian far left now views defending Gladys Liu as an important progressive priority

    Step 1. Defend Liberal MP

    Step 2. ???

    Step 3. Worldwide Trotskyist socialist revolution

  8. it’s not backbone for Labor to advocate for tax increases, it’s insanity

    It’s insanity to advocate for tax increases just so that the money can uselessly pad a budget surplus. Thanks Bowen! Can’t wait for you to become leader.

  9. guytaur @ #1151 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 10:51 am

    Cat

    I see you are full of excuses about reality. Morrison leads a government that has reached its use by date.
    This will certainly be the case by the next one.

    Oh dear. Labor right is not always right about how to win campaigns. How sad!

    Oh, feel the burn from guytaur! 😆

    Not that anything you said was correct. Morrison is busy making the electorate feel relaxed and comfortable so he can settle in for a dozen or so years like his hero, Howard.

    Who’s not acknowledging this reality?

    Anyway, be my guest wasting yet another day attacking ‘the Labor Right’. You only exemplify your ridiculousness by doing so and using this as The Greens’ latest epithet du jour.

    But excuse me if I don’t get on the merry-go-round with you.

  10. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, September 11, 2019 at 10:38 am

    Cat

    When Labor people start using the LNP talking points on denying the role coal plays in climate change Labor people deserve all the contempt they get.

    I haven’t seen one person “denying the role coal plays in climate change.”
    The position being stated is the reality that at the moment coal is required for energy production.
    The Liberals use this to support no change, whilst commentators here use it as the starting point for the transition away from coal, that we are already seeing in our energy sector.

  11. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, September 11, 2019 at 10:38 am
    Cat

    When Labor people start using the LNP talking points on denying the role coal plays in climate change Labor people deserve all the contempt they get.

    Globally, coal contributes 10% of GHG emissions. These result from electricity production, of which coal represents 40%.

    These emissions will be displaced by the adoption of renewables. This is happening very rapidly. In WA, roof-top solar is now the largest collective source of electricity. The WA coal powered sector barely operates. Renewables will largely displace coal, oil and gas in electricity production and when this happens, electrification in transport will substantially reduce GHG emissions in that sector.

    In aviation, biofuels are already being trialled as a substitute for fossil-fuel-derived avgas.

    The answers here are substitution, renewables, innovation, cost reductions, asset replacement. Supply disruptions will actually have the opposite effect of the one for which their advocates hope. Tech innovation will change the energy economy.

    But never fear, coal has been demonised by the Greens. They will fight their demons….and make everything more difficult.

  12. C@tmomma @ #1141 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 10:44 am

    As I said, P1, you’re not telling us anything we don’t know already. And, as I asked you, what are you doing about it in a practical sense, other than collecting the recycling at your place?

    *sigh*.

    Are you off grid yet?

    Yes.

    Do you use recycled rainwater for your toilet and washing?

    Yes.

    Have you advocated in your local community for the changes we all need to make at a local level?

    Yes.

    Is all the accommodation designed to minimise energy use?

    Yes.

    I have.

    Good. You’ve made a start, even if you apparently don’t understand why.

    I won’t list all the additional things we have done. It wouldn’t really be fair, because I understand that many of them you would be unable to do.

  13. Mavis Davis:

    So the “malignant narcissist, fat orange blob, with the self-esteem of a small pidgeon” has finally done something good for humankind by sacking Dr. Strangelove Bolton, thereby probably averting war with Iran. A Bravo Zulu for the dolt.

    Another empirical confirmation of the Stopped Clock Theorem!

  14. Douglas and Milko:

    [‘I think Labor really does need to wait for the results of the review before coming out swinging. There are many opinions out there at the moment as to why Labor lost, but we need some measured analysis of what went wrong before deciding which issues to die in a ditch over.’]

    Entirely agree. That’s why I cautioned mundo to hold his fire until such time as the review’s completed.

  15. The lesson from the German example.

    When denied their voice citizens disrupt society. Hong Kong. This drone exercise. Convoys’s to Queensland and the like.

    Even painting No War on the sails of the Opera House.

    Not all these things are useful and constructive. Be in no doubt though citizens that keep having their voices denied by a minority of voters will act to disrupt society. In France they once went to the extent of using the Guillotine.

  16. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, September 11, 2019 at 11:11 am

    Barney

    You obviously have not been reading Briefly’s and BW”s posts.

    You have a problem with anything longer than a tweet, don’t you?

  17. Barney

    Nope. The defence of Labor regulating to open up the carbon bomb with the Adani Gateway Project is appalling.

    Its like Trump loosening standards so US citizens can’t have clean drinking water because profits matter more.

  18. Australians are all for action on climate change as long as it costs nothing and does not affect their jobs. That is the reality of life in the real world. A number of posters here may save themselves a lot of angst if they simply get that fact through their head.

    Jobs, job security, cost of living. They are the bread and butter issues that are important on polling day when the pencil hits the ballot paper. Action on climate change ? Not a vote changer.

    The battle around climate change has been lost just as the AS battle has been lost. The realities have been swallowed up by the noise, the claims and counter claims from both left and right and the over powering influence of self interested media and big business in this country.

    The solution ? I have no idea but I do not think huffing and puffing and demanding the end of coal, screaming and shouting in support of convoys of insignificance driving through regional Queensland and wearing anti Adani ear rings is the way to go.

    Australia had its opportunity to “ to the right thing “ re the treatment of AS and Australia had the opportunity to “ do the right thing “ on climate change but on both issues this country failed.

    All sides of politics should hang their heads in shame. Liberals, nationals, greens and labor are to blame. All are guilty of playing or having played politics while AS are left surviving in inhumane conditions and Australia and the world burns.

    The coalition will not do anything on either issue. The status quo suits them.

    The greens cannot do anything despite their ranting. They are happy with that outcome however. The status quo suits them.

    Labor is the only party that offers even a glimmer of hope but that glimmer is being shut out by the status quo rentseekers on the left and right.

  19. doyley

    You tried that lesser evil stuff with the last election. Voters went for the genuine evil.

    Try being on the right side of history you might actually start winning elections.

  20. Night time PBAD has has evolved to become daytime PBaggers.
    A certain irony exists in that most of the contributors tp PB, PBAD and PBaggers are probably all from that very small section of the inhabitants of this huge dry land that actually take time to reflect and care, despite how badly this reflection and care is expressed.
    If I’ve inadvertently included Nath in a compliment please forgive me.

  21. @RhwLeap_Org tweets

    “We suffer in the labour movement from believing that political action just means voting. We need to understand the role of voting and how we build power in society through mobilizations. We must think about political action differently.” – David Camfield

  22. Qld councillor just said that some fires were started by motor mowers. Perhaps they need tuition by Vic Emergency.

    Edit: we have been dealing with fire dangers for longer, perhaps?

  23. @GetUP tweets

    With 700,000 looking for work, 1.1 million looking for more hours and only 240,000 jobs available – many people have no choice to be on Newstart.

    We should not humiliate people for circumstances they cannot control. You can’t bully people into taking jobs that don’t exist.

    Barney.

    An example of a fact. Many are just not accepting because they want to punish the poor.

  24. caf @ #1171 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 11:16 am

    Natural gas-fired power plants, which have crushed the economics of coal, are on the path to being undercut themselves by renewable power and big batteries, a study found.

    It’s Bloomberg so I would treat it as a low-confidence data point when updating your priors, but still interesting.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-09/gas-plants-will-get-crushed-by-wind-solar-by-2035-study-says

    I absolutely agree that caution is required here. There are a growing number of fossil-fuel spruikers claiming that we don’t need to actually do anything because renewables will solve the problem. All they are really wanting, of course, is to delay any action at all, so that they can perpetuate the use of fossil fuels for as long as possible, and thereby maximize their profits at our expense.

    This message is one of the most effective tools the fossil fuel companies have yet found, because it resonates with (a) our natural tendancy to back away from making decisions on controversial subjects, or ones we don’t understand, (b) our tendancy to avoid making any tough decisions that might threaten our lifestyle, and (c) our sheer laziness in not wanting to do anything at all.

    However, gas was only ever going to be useful as a transition fuel, and the days for when it could be justified deploying it for that purpose are drawing to a close. This article says by 2035, but they are talking about fracking, which is expensive gas (not to mention not much better than coal for emissions).

    I would give conventional gas longer on economic terms alone – perhaps an additional 10 or 15 years.

  25. Action on climate change ? Not a vote changer.

    This is a massive over-generalisation. For example it seems likely that a lot of previously Coalition voters did switch their votes over climate change action – see the swings against the Coalition in those wealthy city seats – but unfortunately they were not in the right places and sufficient numbers to flip seats.

  26. P1 @ 11.08,
    Good to see. So, how are you going against the developers? The ones who see a tree as an impediment to their desire to exploit the landscape for gain?

    You know what I’m doing Sunday morning? Supporting a protest where one Indigenous nation is protesting another trying to take over their land and exploit it. I’m also going to become a member of a Labor Homelessness Action and Policy Committee.

    Real actions in the real world, so as to walk my talk. I just wish more people here on PB would do the same, as you seem to be doing, instead of thinking that attacking Labor will get them where they want to go.

  27. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, September 11, 2019 at 11:23 am

    Barney

    Facts are kind of like that.

    The science is in. You accept it or you don’t

    Nice tweet!

    However the Science is far from complete in how we ultimately deal with the problem of excessive CO2 in the atmosphere.

    You’re just a cheerleader like P1, with little understanding of the Science you love to wave in the air.

  28. caf @ #1183 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 11:33 am

    Action on climate change ? Not a vote changer.

    This is a massive over-generalisation. For example it seems likely that a lot of previously Coalition voters did switch their votes over climate change action – see the swings against the Coalition in those wealthy city seats – but unfortunately they were not in the right places and sufficient numbers to flip seats.

    Yes, this is the flip that has occurred. The Liberal and National parties have become the parties of the Blue Collar voter. Howard engineered this. Labor just needs to figure out how to flip the seats that have started to turn towards them.

  29. Voters are not going to get climate action from the Government because it won’t.

    Voters are not going to get climate action from the Greens because they can’t.

    Voters might get climate action from Labor but they chose instead to vote for the Coalition and the Greens.

    So they chose won’t and can’t.

    It is not all that complicated, BTW, if you ask the won’ts and the can’ts.

    It is Labor’s fault.

  30. @Noodles_Romanov
    #auspol here is what you’re missing re #IndueCard.

    Don’t just focus on the obvious corruption about who profits from the card itself.

    This is about the near monopolies being granted on where the #indue money can be spent. How much do I donate to become an indue approved vendor?

  31. C@tmomma @ #1185 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 11:34 am

    I just wish more people here on PB would do the same, as you seem to be doing, instead of thinking that attacking Labor will get them where they want to go.

    Labor could avoid that by adopting rational policies. At the moment, both the party and their rusted-on supporters are just making themselves a target for ridicule. This has got to stop, because I agree that Labor is our best alternative.

  32. Barney

    Nice way to try and make out that the science is not in.

    We know carbon emissions are rising. We know until recently Labor accepted the science. Even if some argued for political reasons we could not do what the science says because people won’t accept it.

    Now we have Labor partisans arguing burning coal is good for the world. So its great to loosen regulation to enable a mine for the profit of a few.

    Throwing a decade of Labor work under the bus.

  33. @GuardianAus Tweets

    I never thought I’d see the Australian rainforest burning. What will it take for us to wake up to the climate crisis? | Joëlle Gergis https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/10/i-never-thought-id-see-the-australian-rainforest-burning-what-will-it-take-for-us-to-wake-up-to-the-climate-crisis?CMP=soc_568&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1568166112

    These days as a climate scientist, the line of separation between the research I do in my professional life and the events unfolding in the world at large is growing ever thinner.

    The extreme events that our community has been talking about for decades are now becoming part of our lived experience, season after season, year after year across the entire planet. What we are seeing play out now is much faster than many of us ever imagined.

  34. Meteorologists have gone through their historical data and can find no precedent for the extreme weather events occurring in NSW & Queensland, in the first days of spring. Living in the Gold Coast hinterland is scary at this time. One of the problems is that you need Council approval to remove trees (overwhelmingly Eucalypts) close to your property, which is not forthcoming unless they’re dead or diseased. In the absence of a good deal of rain, I fear the worst this summer.

  35. Gladys needs “educating” in LNP prevarication.

    PatriciaKarvelas

    @PatsKarvelas
    Massive clean out of Gladys Liu’s office planned. Victoria’s Liberals believe she is unsupported and therefore unprepared #auspol

  36. caf,

    With all due respect I would think your post actually proves my point.

    Labor had a PV of 33.34%.

    Gutted in Queensland, beaten in Tassie, stomped on in WA and insignificant in NSW with swings to the liberals in labor “ heartland “.

    A few green Tories in Victoria voting for action on climate change achieved nothing and as you posted “ not in the right places and sufficient numbers to flip seats.”

    Cheers.

    Cheers.

  37. Politics is now boring because Shorten has no influence. It all turned to shit when he arrived on the scene back in 07 and never forget our revolving door of PM”s started with him and his 2 phones knifing Rudd.

  38. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, September 11, 2019 at 11:39 am

    Barney

    Nice way to try and make out that the science is not in.

    We know carbon emissions are rising. We know until recently Labor accepted the science. Even if some argued for political reasons we could not do what the science says because people won’t accept it.

    Now we have Labor partisans arguing burning coal is good for the world. So its great to loosen regulation to enable a mine for the profit of a few.

    Throwing a decade of Labor work under the bus.

    See you can’t understand nuance.

    No one is saying “burning coal is good for the world,” they saying at the moment it is necessary to burn coal to meet our energy requirements.

    What would happen if we turned off all our coal plants today?

  39. Player One @ #1123 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 10:17 am

    Greensborough Growler @ #1122 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 10:15 am

    Incremental change over time rules.

    Sorry, GG – climate change doesn’t work that way.

    GG is a dead set moron who is usually wrong in everything he so confidently predicts

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1199 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 11:54 am

    guytaur says:
    Wednesday, September 11, 2019 at 11:39 am

    Barney

    Nice way to try and make out that the science is not in.

    We know carbon emissions are rising. We know until recently Labor accepted the science. Even if some argued for political reasons we could not do what the science says because people won’t accept it.

    Now we have Labor partisans arguing burning coal is good for the world. So its great to loosen regulation to enable a mine for the profit of a few.

    Throwing a decade of Labor work under the bus.

    See you can’t understand nuance.

    No one is saying “burning coal is good for the world,” they saying at the moment it is necessary to burn coal to meet our energy requirements.

    What would happen if we turned off all our coal plants today?

    Oh the irony it burns!
    To give you a clue, no one is saying that we should ‘turn off our coal plants today’.

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