Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings take a hit, but no change on the voting intention headline in the third poll since the great federal election miss.

As related by The Australian, the third Newspoll since the fall is unchanged on the second, conducted three weeks ago, in showing the Coalition with a two-party lead of 51-49. The primary votes are Coalition 43% (41.4% at the election), Labor 35% (33.4%), Greens 12% (10.4%) and One Nation 5% (3.1%, although they did not contest every seat at the election). All four are up a point compared with the previous poll, reflected in a four point drop in “others” to 5%. I’m struggling to identify the last time Newspoll had the Greens at 12% – certainly not at any point in the last term (UPDATE: It was in March 2016).

Scott Morrison is up a point on approval to 49%, after dropping three points last time, and his disapproval is up three to 39%, which is still three down on the first poll after the election. Anthony Albanese records a net negative rating for the first time, being down six on approval to 35% (after gaining two last time), and up six on disapproval to 40% (after dropping two last time). Morrison’s preferred prime minister lead is reportedly at 20%, compared with 18% last time, although the exact numbers are not yet provided (UPDATE: Morrison’s lead has increased from 48-30 to 48-28).

The poll comes with a glimmer of improved transparency, in that we are told exactly how many respondents came from its online survey (956) and automated phone poll (705) components. It was conducted from Thursday to Sunday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,523 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 23 of 31
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  2. It says something ….not sure what….that at least one of the bludgers can take the trouble to read very old posts and record them. This is not casual bludging. It’s research….to what end we can only surmise…

  3. Socrates @ #1025 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 7:29 am

    Morning all. Climate change is real and Qld coal is a major cause. But it is self interest, not lack of information that drives denial. This article highlights how that is happening at an international level. Time to give up on Kyoto’s failed multi-lateralism and tariff products of countries with high emissions.
    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/29/russia-china-climate-change-1691698

    Yup. It is quite unbelievable just how out of touch Australia is with what is happening elsewhere 🙁

  4. Greensborough Growler says:
    Wednesday, September 11, 2019 at 9:46 am
    briefly,

    You must have the Green’s cabal extremely concerned with your determined efforts to put put your views and their equally determined and pathetic attempts to silence you.

    Certainly seems that way, GG. I will persist. 🙂

  5. briefly
    says:
    Wednesday, September 11, 2019 at 9:48 am
    It says something ….not sure what….that at least one of the bludgers can take the trouble to read very old posts and record them. This is not casual bludging. It’s research….to what end we can only surmise…
    _______________________________________
    just to demonstrate what a fraud you are. What person of the Left wants Australia to withdraw from the UN Convention on refugees? I think all would hope that Australia attempt to live up to the convention.

  6. Yes, Australia should just withdraw from the convention. Then every other country can follow Australia’s lead. Boom: global refugee problem solved.

  8. “New @TheAusInstitute report: 80% of Australians realise we are already experiencing the impacts of climate change.”

    Rupert will be furious. what’s the point of running loss-making media (well, loss making until his political arm in government pays him millions in out of tender ‘contracts’ and tax concessions) if people are going to listen to scientists!!!

    Cue murdoch media pundits lamenting the state of science education and ABC bias as fooling 80% of the population. they’s also add ‘left-wing organisation’ as a prefix to every mention of the Australia Institute. if they report it at all.

  11. Greensborough Growler
    says:
    Wednesday, September 11, 2019 at 9:53 am
    adrian,
    We all know what you’ve got in your hand.
    ___________________________
    It’s interesting how many references GG makes to masturbation. We know that the Catholic Church has many times condemned masturbation:

    Pope Leo IX’s Ad splendidum nitentis (1054), the decree of the Holy Office dated 2 March 1679, Pope Pius XII’s Allocutio (Oct 8th, 1953), and Acta Apostolicae Sedis 48 dated 19 May 1956

    Is it possible that GG has never masturbated? He therefore thinks that such an act is a serious misconduct and shameful? is he just fascinated by something he has never done before? Either way, he’s a confused and possibly very frustrated old coot. 🙂

  12. Sally McManus @sallymcmanus
    ·
    10m
    Planes have an automatic warning “Pull up! Pull up!” that happens just before a crash. Morrison has been getting these warnings about the economy to urgently address low wage growth. Seconds from disaster he continues to ignore it

  14. nath

    Labor abandoning the Human Rights of AS is the reason it has been wedged so long on the issue.

    Unlike the Democrats in the US Labor has given in to letting human rights take second place to what they saw as political expediency.

    As a result they had had years of being beaten around the head on the issue and seen Australia being ruled by a racist extreme government.

    If Labor had upheld human rights first its arguments would have had a clear principle that would see them in very good stead to win the last election on refugees as we saw LNP voters in city areas rejecting those policies.

    Labor might not have been able to win the North Queensland seats but would have won everywhere else.

    Exactly the same story with climate change. political expedience takes over not the principle.
    There is a place for political expediency as a major party but there has to be a bottom line you don’t abandon.

    Defending Human Rights to the hilt should be one of them for Labor.
    The lack of defence of human rights has lead us down this dark road to the point now where raids on the media are accepted in the political sphere and Labor just waves through more powers to the government.

  15. lizzie @ #1097 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 9:45 am

    P1

    It does concern me that in their haste to prove to the media that Labor has “learned the lessons from defeat”, they may drop some bloody good policies.

    Yes, me too. However, all is not yet lost. I actually trust Labor will eventually see sense.

    I believe what we are seeing here on PB is some Labor partisans “trialling” a few alternative policy positions to see which ones are most likely to fool the punters … errr … change people’s voting intention.

    All we really need to do to is continue to point out the facts. So keep up the good fight!

  16. The Liberal Lite problem affects voters regardless of whether they are paying close attention to politics or not; regardless of whether they have strong political identities or not. The problem that it causes to Labor with regard to low info voters is that the message is not credible and compelling. For instance, when voters hear Labor say that it will increase health care funding (in a few areas of health care to a modest extent with conditions attached), that has much less impact than setting a goal of zero out of pocket fees for health care, with a strategy of massively increasing the size of the public health care system. Labor then weakens its message even more by promising bigger and somehow better surpluses. How will the typical low info voter reconcile the health care promises with the surplus promise? The messages are contradictory, which reduces their credibility. If people want austerity they can vote for the LNP. Why should Labor be trying to outdo the economic illiteracy and recklessness of the Libs?

    The Liberal Lite approach is not smart politics and it delivers sub-optimal policy. It should be abandoned but Labor is strongly wedded to it still. Labor will continue to lose until there are major personnel changes in the parliamentary ALP. Unfortunately the current pre-selection process makes that extremely unlikely. Primary elections for lower and upper house candidates would make the ALP much more responsive to the community and better positioned to drop policy frameworks that are proven failures.

  18. One of the reasons Labor should always defend human rights is because Unions are the lobbyists of the people. They are not corporations who have their own lobbyists.

    The people pay unions to lobby on their behalf over living in dignity with the whole concept of a living wage. This is a fundamental human right. So is Freedom of Assembly. See Poland for anyone that forgets how important human rights are for unions.

    If you support unions you must support human rights. As soon as you stop defending human rights you are not defending unions.

  20. Greensborough Growler @ #1100 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 9:46 am

    briefly,

    You must have the Green’s cabal extremely concerned with your determined efforts to put put your views and their equally determined and pathetic attempts to silence you.

    Give them buggery mate!

    +1

    I can’t be bothered. They bore me to tears. They are so repetitive and predictable.

    Instead of doing something concrete like going out and planting some trees to absorb some CO2, or getting themselves elected to their local council so they can influence policy, or maybe even go further than that and aim higher politically, what do we get? Day after day, after day, after day, after day, after day of back and forth and sneering about Labor and The Greens.

    I see Watermelon is back on the case again today, ably abetted by a sneering P1. Guys, what are you actually achieving in a concrete sense with your daily diatribes? Especially as it concerns your personally favourite topic, Climate Change and its causes and how Labor is hopeless when it comes to doing anything about it.

    We get it already! So why do you have to spend every day here virtue signalling about your own saintly positions when we got it the first hundred times!?!

    I simply refuse to engage any more. It’s a pointless exercise that just wastes time and achieves next to nothing.

    I’ll just keep on engaging in local campaigns that have real world outcomes. Which we’ve had a couple of big wins with recently. As I’m well aware, thank you very much, about what needs to be done and I don’t need sanctimonious pontificators on PB telling me what I already know and subscribe to.

  22. P1,

    Get back to us when there is widespread mainstream action in support of your dreary doom and gloom predictions. However, I’m pretty sure the world will continue on it’s current course despite your earnest rantings. Incremental change over time rules.

  24. I wont be. Lol!

    Rick Wilson
    @TheRickWilson
    ·
    18m
    When Trump finally fires Mike Pence, there will still be people in DC who are shocked.

    Don’t you people get it?

    This is a reality show, not a government.

  25. Primary elections for lower and upper house candidates would make the ALP much more responsive to the community and better positioned to drop policy frameworks that are proven failures.

    If the anti-Greens folks here really wanted to Greens to disappear, they would be advocating this.

    Of course, they’d rather not lose their all-purpose scapegoat.

  26. Jim Acosta
    @Acosta
    · 7h
    Senior admin officials say a factor in Bolton’s firing was that Trump and Pence were upset that Bolton’s team had made it sound as though the VP opposed the Taliban meeting at Camp David. VP made it clear in tweet he supported such a move.

  29. Penny Wong gets it:

    When a second Labor MP also raised concerns about the animal activist bill, Labor Senate leader Penny Wong backed Mr Albanese.

    “The argument that we are capitulating on major issues is a Greens’ tactic and we must take it on,” she told caucus.

  30. PatriciaKarvelas
    ✔
    @PatsKarvelas
    Govt confident there’s no “smoking gun” with Liu but she was told not to do the interview with Bolt, but did. Govt believes her office is out of ifs depth #auspol

  33. P1,

    Unfortunately, your nagging, hectoring and messianic fervour hasn’t worked very well to date in making your case.

    The Government and the voters are not particularly enamoured of your persuasive skills or interested in your alleged solutions.

    You know that doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result is one definition of insanity.

    So, what are you going to do about that?

  34. I see Watermelon is back on the case again today, ably abetted by a sneering P1. Guys, what are you actually achieving in a concrete sense with your daily diatribes? Especially as it concerns your personally favourite topic, Climate Change and its causes and how Labor is hopeless when it comes to doing anything about it.

    Labor’s the only party that can win government other than the Coalition. So if anything is going to be done about climate change it has to be done by Labor. For this reason, Labor’s policy in support of massively expanded fossil fuel extraction is concerning to anybody who takes climate change seriously. And so people are motivated to argue against it.

    The standard responses by loyalists are:

    1) ad-homenim / name-calling (“who cares what you say you’re just a Green”)
    2) climate denialist talking points (“only 0.000001%” etc)
    3) proudly declaring your disengagement from the conversation

    The quality of the responses speak to the merits of Labor’s policy.

  35. Player One @ #1127 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 10:21 am

    C@tmomma @ #1120 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 10:11 am

    I can’t be bothered. They bore me to tears. They are so repetitive and predictable.

    Can you honestly not see any irony in these statements?

    No. Explain it to me, P1. Explain to me how I go on day after day after day about something we are all well aware of because I have said it hundreds of times before just about every other day? Yet, when presented with a contrary opinion to my own dearly-held beliefs, I don’t simply attempt to sneer it away, instead of seeking either to discuss it sensibly and respect the fact that reality suggests otherwise to my sincerely-held beliefs and acknowledge same?

    Because, lord knows, so many of us here have presented the reality to you and all the other Green Dream Believers, and some fairly sensible and nuanced positions, only to be immediately pooh poohed because we don’t ‘get’ the extremity of the situation.

    Instead we are pilloried as being automatons from the Labor Right, whilst at one and the same time the Extreme Right and the Climate Change Ignorers are over there in the government. Where Labor isn’t. And they don’t receive a fraction of a percent of the attention that Labor does. I just fail to see why you all keep engaging in this pointless exercise and I see no irony in that at all.

  36. Cat

    When Labor people start using the LNP talking points on denying the role coal plays in climate change Labor people deserve all the contempt they get.

  37. Greensborough Growler @ #1133 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 10:31 am

    So, what are you going to do about that?

    Try and raise your consciousness from its current low ebb.

    I suggest you read the following article, posted yesterday by an Australian climate scientist who is currently working on the next IPCC report …

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/10/i-never-thought-id-see-the-australian-rainforest-burning-what-will-it-take-for-us-to-wake-up-to-the-climate-crisis

    This is playing out much faster than many of us scientists ever imagined

    Spoiler alert: The “c-” word appears twice in this article.

  38. guytaur @ #1131 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 10:27 am

    Cat

    Labor showing backbone and voting for tax increases and the essential services and running a Trudeau style campaign would be very welcome

    guytaur, it’s not backbone for Labor to advocate for tax increases, it’s insanity. You seem to have not got the very loud message from the electorate at the federal election that they can’t go for that, no can do.

    You are only one vote, guytaur, and the majority are not on your side.

  39. Cat

    It hasn’t done Trudeau any harm.

    If a Canadian politician can do it so can Labor. Back Wayne Swan. Do the tax and spend. Labor gets blamed for it anyway.

  40. Institute of Public Affairs @TheIPA
    19h

    Should the ABC be privatised? @evmulholland makes the case on Sky News:

    This young gentleman is the Director of Comms, @TheIPA, Former gov adviser (Which govt?).

    @asunderland
    ·
    15h
    Replying to @TheIPA and @evmulholland

    Unlike, I imagine, 99% of Australia, I actually read the IPA book which advocated the privatisation of the ABC. It was poorly written and argued, devoid of solid research, and largely inconsistent and ideologically driven, imho. But by all means knock yourself out.

  41. Player One @ #1137 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 10:39 am

    Greensborough Growler @ #1133 Wednesday, September 11th, 2019 – 10:31 am

    So, what are you going to do about that?

    Try and raise your consciousness from its current low ebb.

    I suggest you read the following article, posted yesterday by an Australian climate scientist who is currently working on the next IPCC report …

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/10/i-never-thought-id-see-the-australian-rainforest-burning-what-will-it-take-for-us-to-wake-up-to-the-climate-crisis

    This is playing out much faster than many of us scientists ever imagined

    Spoiler alert: The “c-” word appears twice in this article.

    As I said, P1, you’re not telling us anything we don’t know already. And, as I asked you, what are you doing about it in a practical sense, other than collecting the recycling at your place? Are you off grid yet? Do you use recycled rainwater for your toilet and washing? Have you advocated in your local community for the changes we all need to make at a local level? Is all the accommodation designed to minimise energy use?

    I have.

  44. Despite our continuing enrolment in the Convention, we run a gulag for refugees in which their conspicuous maltreatment is invoked anytime it suits the political purposes of the Lib-Libs. Like it or not, both Australia and those attracted to try their chances by boat were exploited by human traffickers.

    The Convention was not set up to become a trafficking device. But that is what it was turned into. The results include the election of Trump, Orban, Abbott, the further ascent of Le Pen, the return of the Right in Germany and Austria and the majority for Brexit. It’s clearly an obsolete instrument and it should be revised.

    Until it is revised, the very large numbers of displaced persons – a number that will only grow as global heating proceeds – will be mishandled. We should have the good sense and humanity to address this. The alternative is the deliberate and cruel repression of the dispossessed, the persecuted and the exiled.

  45. It being Wednesday, means it is National Press Club day.

    Mark Dreyfus will be delivering today’s speech. It’s on the need for a national integrity commission.

  50. Chuckle. Why don’t we confine our attacks to the Coalition?

    Aaron Dodd @AaronDodd
    11h

    Q. Why does Morrison always have a smirk on his face?

    A. It’s a time-saving measure. It’s so we can instantly dislike him rather than wait to hear him speak.

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