The Courier-Mail/Sunday Mail has followed up yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy state results, which were covered here, with the federal voting intention findings from the same poll. This records the Coalition with a 55-45 lead in the state, from primary votes of Coalition 40%, Labor 29%, One Nation 13% and Greens 12%. However, Scott Morrison records a commanding 46-23 over Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister.
According to taste, you can interpret the voting intention results as:
• An improvement for Labor on the election result, at which the Coalition recorded a thumping 58.6-41.4 two-party preferred win in the state, from primary votes of Coalition 43.7%, Labor 26.7%, Greens 10.3% and One Nation 8.9%;
• A surge to the Coalition compared with the last YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, which was conducted a week-and-a-half before the May 18 election and proved, like all pre-election polling from the state, to be very badly astray. That poll had the Coalition leading 51-49, from primary votes of Coalition 38%, Labor 33%, Greens 9% and One Nation 9%.
The latter result, which was similar to Newspoll state breakdowns of the time, is worth revisiting, as it more-or-less accurately predicted the vote shares for the minor parties (albeit a shade too low for the Greens), and may have done well enough for the major parties among women – but it very clearly dropped the ball among Queensland men, who plainly didn’t come close to the dead even two-party split attributed to them by the poll.
nath, they ain’t what they are. The Party of Abetz, Abbott, Dutton, Craig Kelly, Connie F-R, Sukkar etc etc etc cannot be called a ‘Liberal Party’.
We are an international laughing stock with such a mis-named, gas lighting party.
The only useful take-home message worthy of the attention of the ALP from this poll is that: The Federal ALP has an important Queensland problem. They must fully focus on such Queensland problem, which has been going on since the times of the Howard Government at least. Even being able to take the Qld Federal 2PP down to 50%-50% at the next Federal election is likely to deliver Government to Albo and the ALP. This will require special attention to those voters who gave their first preference to Hanson or Palmer and then preferenced the LNP ahead of the ALP. They are the voters who have made sure that the LNP has such a massive command of Federal elections in Queensland that end up delivering the Federal government to the Coalition.
There is no time to waste… Queensland is the word!
can we sell queensland to Trump? please.
frednk says:
Sunday, September 1, 2019 at 1:22 pm
God Gerard Henderson is one bitter old man.
Apparently all on the left (whatever that means in 2019) should go on a guilt trip because Hitler signed an agreement with Russia in 1943.
The Non-Aggression pact was signed prior to the German invasion of Poland.
On August 23, 1939–shortly before World War II (1939-45) broke out in Europe–enemies Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union surprised the world by signing the German-Soviet Nonaggression Pact, in which the two countries agreed to take no military action against each other for the next 10 years. With Europe on the brink of another major war, Soviet leader Joseph Stalin (1879-1953) viewed the pact as a way to keep his nation on peaceful terms with Germany, while giving him time to build up the Soviet military. German chancellor Adolf Hitler (1889-1945) used the pact to make sure Germany was able to invade Poland unopposed. The pact also contained a secret agreement in which the Soviets and Germans agreed how they would later divide up Eastern Europe. The German-Soviet Nonaggression Pact fell apart in June 1941, when Nazi forces invaded the Soviet Union.
This aside, of course it’s misleading to describe the Soviet Union as Leftist. It was profoundly repressive. It was no more Leftist than Nazi Germany, where the Left-leaning opponents of Hitler were rounded up and imprisoned, tortured, enslaved and frequently murdered, just as Stalin’s opponents were also very violently repressed.
In Australia, the Communist Party aligned itself with Stalin and was both against the War and then for it. The CPA used the same kind of utterly specious arguments and language in order to politically discredit Curtin that the Greens now use against Labor.
The Greens and Henderson are on the same page in this respect. They both use falsifications to attack Labor.
This is Martin Place Sydney today, protesting against nath’s party who should be left alone cause they ‘are what they are’..
Alpo
One Nation voters like a People’s Bank.
One Nation voters are science deniers and pro gun.
Last State election supporting Adani was going to cost Labor election. Palasczuk changed course to oppose Adani. She won.
Labor is ignoring the election results of the last state election in a belief that the LNP myth Adani lost Labor the Federal election.
From election results it’s clear it was not climate policy. It was not opposing Adani that cost Labor the Federal election. Since Qld Labor has been supporting Adani they are losing in the state polling too. (Note election results mean much more than the polling)
Why are the protesters carrying pictures of Bushfire Bill?
Sprocket you should post more mocking memes of scomos bus tour of Qld. Turns out he did pretty well up there.
guytaur says:
Sunday, September 1, 2019 at 2:41 pm
Alpo
One Nation voters like a People’s Bank.
One Nation voters are science deniers and pro gun.
Last State election supporting Adani was going to cost Labor election. Palasczuk changed course to oppose Adani. She won.
Labor is ignoring the election results of the last state election in a belief that the LNP myth Adani lost Labor the Federal election.
From election results it’s clear it was not climate policy. It was not opposing Adani that cost Labor the Federal election.
This assertion is completely nullified by the actual empirical evidence, which shows that in the marginals where Labor lost the issues were jobs and incomes.
Adani is a green herring.
The Greens and their political siblings, the Liberals, have contrived to depict Labor as being weak on jobs. This cost Labor a lot of votes in the marginals, especially in the export-facing/resource-reliant parts of the country – Queensland, WA, the coal country in NSW, parts of Tasmania.
Workers in these parts of the country swung to the Liberals. They certainly didn’t do that because they wanted Labor to shut down their industries.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/labor-is-in-a-diabolical-situation-albanese-says-following-icac-revelations-20190901-p52mte.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1567312053
Labor will have to fix the mess in NSW before voters fix it for them.
If…
I wish Albo all the best. Intervention is required but the entrenched interests are strong
“God Gerard Henderson is one bitter old man.
Apparently all on the left (whatever that means in 2019) should go on a guilt trip because Hitler signed an agreement with Russia in 1943.”
funny that coming from a man who is such a fan of pig iron bob – who declared in the 1930s that we have much to learn from Mr Hitler (in terms of suppressing trade unions and suspending individual liberties for the benefit of capital)
Keneally gave an excellent speech at the Martin Place Asylum Seekers protest today.
No Australian’s will not be silent. No “Quiet Australian’s” here.
Briefly
The election results are crystal clear. Despite the myth making you are trying to propagate.
Last State election in Queensland Labor won the election.
Opposing expansion is not Shutting Down an industry
[“But from the evidence that has been given before ICAC this week, there is enough evidence in there to require a comprehensive response of structural reform of NSW Labor,” he said.’]
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/labor-is-in-a-diabolical-situation-albanese-says-following-icac-revelations-20190901-p52mte.html
guytaur @ #216 Sunday, September 1st, 2019 – 3:15 pm
KK is in serious danger of showing up her Labor colleagues if this passion, rage, fight, guts and enthusiasm from her continues. Richard Marles will have to wear a loud tie. That’ll show ’em..
lizzie @ #211 Sunday, September 1st, 2019 – 2:51 pm
🙂 Large. Watch out Dick KK’s comin’fer yer…..
lizzie @ #209 Sunday, September 1st, 2019 – 2:49 pm
Sweet Jesus, I worked it out.
Labor likes being in opposition.
It’s obvious.
The whole Asylum Seeker issue. Labor would be winning the debate without the secrecy.
We need a maximum change Republic. Treaty. Enshrine the public right to know in the Constitution. The US has its problems. That public right to know so the President is accountable is the thin thread holding the hope that the US is not a full blown dictatorship
“From the evidence, there is evidence”. Can’t argue with that!
sprocket_ @ #175 Sunday, September 1st, 2019 – 1:11 pm
‘NBN debacle is a good candidate as it clearly a Liberal owned failure’
If only it were that simple.
I’ve had many an argument with people who never understood the difference between Labor’s build of the NBN and the coalitions. All they know is it was a Rudd/Labor brainstorm and it’s shit.
Labor has dropped the ball badly here and needs to work on explaining why it’s the coalitions turkey and how it happened and use the words ABBOTT and TURNBULL a lot.
Mundo.
Labor should run an advertising campaign on the NBN. No politicians. Just pay for space to give Nick Ross to put the case.
That’s all Labor needs to do.
guytaur @ #225 Sunday, September 1st, 2019 – 3:42 pm
I hear they’ve got plenty of cash on hand for that…
Oakeshott Country @ #213 Sunday, September 1st, 2019 – 2:56 pm
I’m backing the dark elements to win any power struggle. Their form is too strong to ignore.
Rex.
I am sure Sir David Attenborough would be happy to appear in a campaign telling the danger the reef is in. All that is needed is his permission to use quotes from his recent show on the Great Barrier Reef.
It’s a whole different ball game when Morrison is attempting to discredit Sir David.
***
https://www.couriermail.com.au/business/cfmeu-calls-for-new-royalties-in-fight-to-combat-mining-companies-moving-to-machines/news-story/fac2c080c2de26c08302e90278cf594d
A historian (can’t remember who) once remarked that a worse mistake than not learning from history was to take the wrong lessons from it.
For decades after World War II, the right regularly mentioned the appeasement of Nazi Germany leading to that war, as the reason why the west now had to stand up to Communism. I can remember many people using this as justification for the United States and Australia wasting lives in the Vietnam war. As if a civil war in a post-colonial south Asian country could be equated with a European super power threatening to occupy a smaller country.
Reasons for Britain and France appeasing Hitler over his European conquests, particularly Czechoslovakia, have been debated ever since. The right’s favourite argument was it showed how weak those democratic nations were in their eagerness to avoid conflict.
There was some truth in that. World War I had ended about 20 years earlier, with much loss of life and destruction of the environment. Young men of military serving age in Britain, France and Australia had grown up with stories from that war told to them by their fathers and uncles.
The British prime minister, Neville Chamberlain, had a visceral horror of war and who could blame him?
But it was also true that many on the right saw Hitler as a valuable ally against communism. That was one reason why Britain could not bring itself to make a defensive alliance with the Soviet Union, which would have been the only way to have stopped Hitler, once he was at the gates of Poland.
The Soviet dictator, Joseph Stalin, was no friend of liberty, but he had a vested interest in stopping Hitler, who had made no secret of his heart-felt desire to destroy communism and turn the Soviet territories into settler lands for the German people.
The German-Soviet pact of 1939 was a desperate attempt by Stalin to prevent a Nazi invasion, following the failure of the west to make common cause with him. It was a mistake, as two years later Germany, now much stronger and battle-hardened after its European conquests, broke its word and invaded the Soviet Union anyway.
But to blame the left for this, or even exclusively the right, is just to selectively write history to suit today’s ideological culture wars.
There’s just too much stink on NSW Labor.
They seriously need nothing less than a total re-structure and re-branding.
Sir Henry Parkes @ #230 Sunday, September 1st, 2019 – 4:03 pm
History is usually written by the winners.
Judging people and events of other times using today’s situation as your defining filter is bad history too.
lizzie says:
Gerry Georgatos @GerryGeorgatos
19 years old impoverished single parent mother recently suicided. Robodebt $9000 contributed to the suicide. Bub left now without a mum and dad. This is the Australia I know; classist, elitist, exploitive, sexist, racist, all the -isms. 2000 suicides thus far this year.
————————————-
Surely there is more to that story because just how does a 19 year old achieve a $9000 debt. It is either a big mistake on Centrelink’s part or this person has been claiming more then they should have but $9000 does seem a lot.
lizzie @ #229 Sunday, September 1st, 2019 – 3:57 pm
Qld is the most backward and unintelligent state or territory in Australia… even more so than NSW.
No foresight, no imagination, no care.
It will be the generosity of other states taxpayers that will end up supporting them when their dirty jobs disappear.
Mexicanbeemer
Haven’t you read any stories about the way that Centrelink ‘calculates’ debts?
The Soviet Union is often seen as complicit with Nazism through its invasion of the Eastern territories of inter-war Poland. It is rarely considered that the Soviets only advanced as fas as the Curzon Line the internationally agreed and ethnically based Polish-Soviet border. They were retaking an area lost during the 1920-22 Polish Soviet War. This continues to be the border between Poland and Ukraine; Byelorus
The push for taxpayers to totally fund elections and ban corporate donations is hogwash. ICAC evidence shows the paper bags would still keep coming.
Tanya suggested that the control should be over how the money is spent rather than how it’s received (citing Palmer as an example). What do others think?
——————————
Lizzie
There is one possible way around it, make it that all donations need to be submitted to the AEC before being distributed to the intended target and make it that if someone doesn’t follow that is then disqualified from sitting in the parliament.
Lizzie
yeah and that is why the story deserves further investigating because $9000 does seem a high number for a 19 year old.
Oakeshott Country says: Sunday, September 1, 2019 at 4:29 pm
The Soviet Union is often seen as complicit with Nazism through its invasion of the Eastern territories of inter-war Poland
**********************************************************
It is absurd how often people in the West (primarily in the US) conflate the USSR and Nazi Germany. They were literally opposites. In fact — while American (and British and French) corporations such as IBM, Ford, GM, and even those for which US senator Prescott Bush (father of George H W Bush) was a shareholder were supporting the Nazis — the USSR played by far the biggest role in destroying Nazism.
In World War II:
◦419,000 Americans died,
◦451,000 Britons died, and
◦at least 26,000,000 Soviets died — 6200% more.
In 1942, Hitler had 178 divisions in the east; Rommel’s confrontation with British forces in northern Africa, which came to feature so much in British mythology, involved only 4 German divisions.
Imagine on D-Day if all those German divisions had been in France ……
The historical reality of World War II is that the USSR overwhelmingly defeated the Nazis. Even the colonialist, racist, anti-communist Churchill had to admit to this.
“
I have left the obvious, essential fact to this point, namely, that it is the Russian Armies who have done the main work in tearing the guts out of the German army.
—Winston Churchill, Speech in the House of Commons, 2 August 1944, “War Situation”
Military historians have always known that the main scene of the Nazis’ downfall was the Eastern Front, which claimed 80 percent of all German military casualties in the war.
A reasonably balanced piece on the two front runners of the Democratic Presidential campaign, Biden and Warren. Two different approaches. But, both seem to have a healthy respect for each other.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/29/biden-warren-debate-2020-1477959
So the position is:
1. Still mine the coal; but
2. Punish any company that tries to mine the coal more efficiently; and
3. Acknowledge that automation is inevitable yet oppose it anyways
That’s gonna win heaps of votes! 🙄
guytaur @ #225 Sunday, September 1st, 2019 – 3:42 pm
Agree 100,000%
And, I’ve been an advocate of a Labor education ad campaign on a range of issues for a long time.
The punters need spoon feeding or they don’t get it.
a r @ #242 Sunday, September 1st, 2019 – 4:50 pm
As always, these things are never linear or sequential.
Australians seem to support development as a concept and anyone or business that promotes the development of the nation is regarded favourably.
Many Queenslanders would perceive Adani as fitting that mould.
Labor need to be alert to that attitude.
I’d see the CFMEU claim as ambit.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/09/01/yougov-galaxy-55-45-federal-coalition-queensland/comment-page-5/#comment-3244431
The Soviet invasion of Eastern Poland and accompanying non-aggression pact, helped the Nazis. Poland would have taken more resources and a longer time to defeat without the Soviet invasion and the risk of war with the Soviet Union over Poland may have slowed Germany`s actions in relation to Poland (Germany in 1941, with France defeated and the UK fighting over home soil, looked a lot closer to invincible than Germany in 1939).
The Soviets were, while not as bad as the Nazis, very brutal rulers in Ukraine who murdered millions.
The non-aggregation pact also allowed for the Soviet takeover of the Baltic states, the Winter War in Finland and parts of Romania.
You have to hand it to Hendo. He runs an excellent unicorn.
All those Bludger posts about Hitler and Stalin later, can anyone remember what Hendo was trying to distract us from?
I watched Insiders and I can’t!
This is Gold! I think Peg has questions to answer.
https://www.spectator.com.au/2019/05/naive-nasty-noxious-and-negative-why-waste-a-vote-on-the-hypocritical-greens/
I see that Dirty Dick DiNatale is at it again.
No, no, no. I don’t mean he is at it again attacking the Coalition for wrecking the joint.
He is attacking Labor.
Greensborough Growler @ #247 Sunday, September 1st, 2019 – 5:22 pm
Really …?