YouGov Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A Queensland-only federal poll from YouGov Galaxy splits the difference between the actual election result and the pre-election polling that singularly failed to predict it.

The Courier-Mail/Sunday Mail has followed up yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy state results, which were covered here, with the federal voting intention findings from the same poll. This records the Coalition with a 55-45 lead in the state, from primary votes of Coalition 40%, Labor 29%, One Nation 13% and Greens 12%. However, Scott Morrison records a commanding 46-23 over Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister.

According to taste, you can interpret the voting intention results as:

• An improvement for Labor on the election result, at which the Coalition recorded a thumping 58.6-41.4 two-party preferred win in the state, from primary votes of Coalition 43.7%, Labor 26.7%, Greens 10.3% and One Nation 8.9%;

• A surge to the Coalition compared with the last YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, which was conducted a week-and-a-half before the May 18 election and proved, like all pre-election polling from the state, to be very badly astray. That poll had the Coalition leading 51-49, from primary votes of Coalition 38%, Labor 33%, Greens 9% and One Nation 9%.

The latter result, which was similar to Newspoll state breakdowns of the time, is worth revisiting, as it more-or-less accurately predicted the vote shares for the minor parties (albeit a shade too low for the Greens), and may have done well enough for the major parties among women – but it very clearly dropped the ball among Queensland men, who plainly didn’t come close to the dead even two-party split attributed to them by the poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,780 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

Comments Page 27 of 36
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  2. Zoomster

    Your reply shows how you have not seen the change happening. Saying Biden is Clinton 2.0 is winning the progressives the nomination. Along with his gaffes.

    The corporate candidates like the polished Buttigieg (very impressive) are losing. He is corporate due to the fundraising method. He is a long long way behind Biden. Of the individual donors not beholden to the corporations and willing to take them on and restrict them Warren is leading.

    Thats not saying Clinton had no issues she campaigned on.

  4. Thanks BK

    Your British democracy at work?
    A prime minister who was chosen by around 90,000 Tory members.
    A prime minister whose main policy setting is based on a bought and paid for referendum that was held three years ago.
    A prime minister who has prorogued Parliament so that MPs can’t have a say.
    A prime minister who has yet to win a vote in the Commons.

  8. A serious question that I have not heard commentators make. Is Jeremy Corbyn PM?
    Does the Parliament vote giving control of the agenda make him PM or does he need a formal coalition?

  11. Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 7:56 am

    frednk
    The Daily Mail’s ‘RIP Democracy’ is LOLworthy.

    Probable upset that it looks like the 58 day thing is going down.

  12. One way of looking at Brexit is that it is yet another symptom of the rise of regionalism in Europe (in this case English regionalism), the rise of the supranational corporates, the growing triumph of capital over labour, the rise of individualism, the hollowing out of the middle class and the rise of social media over traditional MSM comms.

    If all those are more true than not, then Brexit is a matter of time and form rather than not.

  13. Re Guytaur @7:55. Boris Johnson is UK PM until and unless he resigns. We have the Do Neal Brexit vote tomorrow, which the Government is likely to lose. Indications are that there will be an election with Boris as PM.

    The situation has parallels to the Medivac legislation here.

  14. grace pettigrew @broomstick33
    ·
    2m
    Dutton could issue #Bileola family with a bridging visa today, so they can go home and work towards citizenship, as many already do .. or does Dutton have a special animosity towards Tamils, many have already been dumped back into Sri Lanka never to be heard of again #auspol

  15. Steve

    Thanks. I thought so but wanted to confirm. It really does mean its going to be a No Deal Brexit v Socialism election. We are going to see what scares the British the most. Immigration or Socialism.

  17. The Tory Party branches are having none of Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings (neither is Phillip Hammond):

    In a challenge to the PM, Mr Hammond was reselected in Runnymede and Weybridge by executive members of the Conservative Association at a private meeting last night.

    Earlier today he slammed the government’s ‘aggressive’ tactics, saying the PM will have the ‘fight of a lifetime’ if he tries to deselect him. ‘I am going to support the Bill… I think we have the numbers,’ he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

    He also launched an excoriating attack on maverick No10 Brexit chief Dominic Cummings. ‘This is my party, I am going to defend my party against people who are at the heart of this government who care nothing about the future of the Conservative party,’ he said.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7423931/Speaker-John-Bercow-tees-huge-Brexit-showdown-GRANTING-Remainer-debate.html

  18. Labour MPs have launched an unexpected bid to revive Theresa May’s Brexit deal.

    The group of 17 backbenchers including Stephen Kinnock, Caroline Flint, Sarah Champion and Dan Jarvis said they would seek to use a delay to Brexit to get the package through.

    ‘A further extension to the timetable to leave the EU will leave most of the country banging their head against a brick wall,’ they said.

    ‘Most people are fed up of hearing about Brexit and just want the referendum result of 2016 to be honoured.’

    If MPs agree to give Commons time to the cross-party Bill tomorrow the group will seek to amend it to require the publication of the version of the draft Brexit deal produced after weeks of talks between the Tories and Labour under Theresa May.

    ‘These amendments allow colleagues to rally around the opportunity to push forward with cross-party agreement,’ the MPs said.

    ‘We all recognise that British politics desperately needs to rediscover the importance of compromise.’

  19. “The daily mail has gone feral”

    Just substitute the names and pictures and it could be Sydney’s Daily Telegraph in the leadup to this year’s State and Federal elections.

    The Daily Mail also seems to be running a campaign / holy war against Prince Harry. He must have said or done something that they deemed left wing.

  21. Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper agreed to divert the military construction funding to build 175 miles of President Trump’s border wall under emergency authorities.

    This is a developing story. It will be updated.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2019/09/03/pentagon-to-take-money-from-127-projects-to-pay-for-3-6-billion-in-border-wall-construction/

    We already know Trump has taken funds from emergency management which would ordinarily go to support communities devastated by storms, flooding etc to put towards the silly border wall. This could get interesting.

  27. Steve777 @ #1319 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 8:19 am

    “The daily mail has gone feral”

    Just substitute the names and pictures and it could be Sydney’s Daily Telegraph in the leadup to this year’s State and Federal elections.

    The Daily Mail also seems to be running a campaign / holy war against Prince Harry. He must have said or done something that they deemed left wing.

    He believes in Climate Change. 😐

  29. This is the kind of message that is becoming more and more common. Much of the security legislation is overkill. (Refer The Drum last night.)

    @noplaceforsheep
    3m
    Every bit of legislation over the last twenty years has led to this situation with the Biloela family & the ALP has signed off on the lot. I haven’t forgotten what you’ve done, @AustralianLabor

  30. Wendy Bacon @Wendy_Bacon
    ·
    8m
    Both #LNP & #Labor have let us down by failing to question #ASIO claims for more powers that remove our basic protection. Read more in Brian Toohey’s book Secrets & listen to I/V NBreakfast

  31. lizzie

    Oh dear. Now the right wing lot are going to call you a Green. You are not toeing the party line exposing public reaction to Labor actions.

    __________________________________________
    @nandoodles tweets

    So @PayPal just banned the KKK and Fox News chose to cover it w/ a @foxandfriends clip called “PayPal Bans Conservative Sites, Faces Backlash”

    Because at @FoxNews, the KKK is just a conservative group.

    https://www.foxnews.com/tech/paypal-ku-klux-klan-donation

  34. A Greens MP gets stuck into the leader of the House for manspreading.
    ______________________________
    I feel a little sorry for the leader of the House here. testicular compression is an issue and relief is sometimes needed.

  35. Train wreck interview with Sabra Lane on emissions by Angus Taylor on this mornings AM

    @GrogsGamut tweets

    What the go with the au pairs https://twitter.com/srpeatling/status/1169019863945437184

    @srpeatling tweets

    PM Scott Morrison on Biloela family: “To have a fair immigration program you don’t create special cases because twitter says so….I understand why Australians feel so strongly about this and I don’t question their compassion in raising this case.”

    Mr Morrison describes the situation in the House of Commons as akin to managing “a bagful of angry cats”.

  36. Stephen Spencer @sspencer_63
    10m
    If you’re a Nine journalist this is a pretty frightening statement. A senior cabinet minister openly declaring that Nine “support(s) the Liberal and National side of politics”.

  37. I posted this comment in other thread.

    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 8:54 am
    It would be very sweet if Boris Johnson was not PM for very long, and Brexit does not happen at all. Very sweet indeed.

  38. lizzie @ #1329 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 8:40 am

    This is the kind of message that is becoming more and more common. Much of the security legislation is overkill. (Refer The Drum last night.)

    @noplaceforsheep
    3m
    Every bit of legislation over the last twenty years has led to this situation with the Biloela family & the ALP has signed off on the lot. I haven’t forgotten what you’ve done, @AustralianLabor

    Honestly, people like this need to get some perspective. If they just realised that Labor votes for this legislation, not because they support it wholeheartedly, but because there are big wedges that the Coalition and the Murdoch media have created over many, many years and if they did vote against it it might please people like this but the vast majority of the electorate would go with the ‘Soft on Terrorists’ line peddled at them.

    It may not have gotten through to well-educated women like this but it was the less well-educated women mainly who deserted Labor for the Coalition at the last federal election. It stands out like dogs ball now why Scott Morrison used his campaign launch to talk all about his wife Jenny, his mum and his girls. We mocked him at the time but he was narrowcasting to those women that Liberal internal polling had obviously picked up were swinging his way.

    Now, Dr Jennifer Whatshername can bleat all she likes about stuff like this, but at the end of the day, in order for Labor to have a chance of winning a federal election, they need to ignore the squeaky wheels like ‘NoPlaceForSheep’ and listen to the ‘Quiet Australians’ like the women who spend more time on facebook than Twitter, and work to win them back. As Labor actually has their needs at the heart of their policies.

    NoPlaceForSheep, being a well-educated woman, should realise that constantly attacking Labor like this for the next 3 years will get her, and Labor nowhere. As it’s only Labor that will give her even half of what she wants. But only if they are in government!

  42. 🙂

    If Angela Merkel is watching this lamentable performance by Boris Johnson she’ll be wishing there was a German word for taking pleasure in the failure of others.
    2:23
    367.3K views
    Embedded video

  46. My guess is that Johnson is getting exactly what Cumming, Farage and the English Raving Looney Right want: an english populist election run as a referendum between hard Brexit and May’s Brexit.

  49. I just don’t see – from opinion polls in the UK and comment from BBC – that there is enough support in the UK to get Labour into power in its own right.
    My guess is that enough of the British public who bother to vote, will probably support the Tory party again, and, by dent, Bojo as PM.
    The “old” Labour party, once strongly supported in the north of England and in Scotland is no more.
    “Old” Labour voters – those in the decayed industrial areas of the north are consumed by “keeping those Poles/Romanians/Bulgarians and assorted Eurotrash” out of England’s green and pleasant land.
    True say, the comfortable people in places like the West of the UK, have the option of voting Lib-Dem, but this indirectly will help keep the Conservatives in power.
    According to the BBC, the UK is so riven by partisan support such that the concept of Broad Church politics has died in the UK just as it has in Oz and many other Western democracies.
    It is for these reason many here and elsewhere are so pessimistic about where politics is going in the coming 5-10 years.

  50. Boerwar

    Agreed. That is what they want.

    The Lib Dems will do well in this general election, but Corbyn is really toxic.
    Another Labour leader would change the game somewhat.

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