YouGov Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A Queensland-only federal poll from YouGov Galaxy splits the difference between the actual election result and the pre-election polling that singularly failed to predict it.

The Courier-Mail/Sunday Mail has followed up yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy state results, which were covered here, with the federal voting intention findings from the same poll. This records the Coalition with a 55-45 lead in the state, from primary votes of Coalition 40%, Labor 29%, One Nation 13% and Greens 12%. However, Scott Morrison records a commanding 46-23 over Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister.

According to taste, you can interpret the voting intention results as:

• An improvement for Labor on the election result, at which the Coalition recorded a thumping 58.6-41.4 two-party preferred win in the state, from primary votes of Coalition 43.7%, Labor 26.7%, Greens 10.3% and One Nation 8.9%;

• A surge to the Coalition compared with the last YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, which was conducted a week-and-a-half before the May 18 election and proved, like all pre-election polling from the state, to be very badly astray. That poll had the Coalition leading 51-49, from primary votes of Coalition 38%, Labor 33%, Greens 9% and One Nation 9%.

The latter result, which was similar to Newspoll state breakdowns of the time, is worth revisiting, as it more-or-less accurately predicted the vote shares for the minor parties (albeit a shade too low for the Greens), and may have done well enough for the major parties among women – but it very clearly dropped the ball among Queensland men, who plainly didn’t come close to the dead even two-party split attributed to them by the poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,780 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. Sanders did best in the primaries against Clinton in Red States….supported by Republicans and Independents who had no intention of voting Democratic in the Presidential race, but wanted to upset Clinton’s chances. Tactical voting against Clinton exaggerated Sanders’ support. Sanders has done far less well this time when faced with a large field of competitors.

    The Democratic Party should have encouraged a wider range of possible nominees in 2016. The race would not have been a choice between 2 candidates with very high “unfavourable” ratings and the result may have been quite different. They have not made the same error this time. The range of candidates is broad by any measure. A strong nominee able to unite Democratic Party and energise its partisan support will most likely emerge and then would be likely to defeat Trump.

  2. The delusion on this blog is scary.

    I will give you an idea how scary. Morning Joe this hour with ex GOP people on it are asking why did Biden decide to run.

    That’s the DNC choice of the “electability” candidate. Using the same type of thinking that lost Labor the last Federal election. Biden is commonly referred to as Clinton 2.0.

    In the states it’s very important to get out the base. That means you don’t win by being the “lesser evil” candidate. You have to stand for something.

    The establishment DNC is slowly coming to this realisation and is going to back Warren. That’s why she is my favourite at the moment for winning the nomination. Best able to unite the party.

    To give you an idea how out of touch people on this blog are with what’s happening in the US. Buttigieg who is now in the position of running for Vice President as his best option (Andrew Yang is polling better) as an establishment candidate is running on Medicare For All. He is the guy most funded by corporation money.

    Biden is so bad his campaign team strategy is to hide him from the voters because he gets tired later in the day and makes gaffes.

    The US is going to have either Warren or Sanders as their nominee unless a black swan event happens. Stop listening to Conservative Never Trumper’s. They are GOP people. They want a Democrat that’s going to save the GOP from itself. Voters want a Democrat that will fight for them.. the base will turn out for such a candidate. Biden is finished as soon as someone beats him in the polls. His whole electability argument gone. The basis of his campaign.

  3. Nath
    That is an interesting map, the reason why Clinton was strong in the south was because the Clinton’s are seen as southerner thanks to Bill’s time as Arkansas Governor.

  4. Briefly:

    The most direct and immediate impact on consumption would follow from purposeful spending by the public sector.

    Here’s how you do fast stimulus: end-of-week refund of the GST component (or part thereof) of retail EFTPOS transactions. Refund rate set weekly by a statutaory authority (like the RBA). Funded from uncovered money printing (sterilised by the GST headline rate)

  5. Mexicanbeemer
    says:
    Tuesday, September 3, 2019 at 10:57 pm
    Nath
    That is an interesting map, the reason why Clinton was strong in the south was because the Clinton’s are seen as southerner thanks to Bill’s time as Arkansas Governor.
    ________________________________
    I assumed it was African-American support for Clinton. But there is plenty of interest. I noticed the complete opposite result for two rust belt states very close together in culture and geography. Indiana which went for Sanders and Ohio which went for Clinton. Sanders support in W.Virginia is also interesting. I think I will look into it.

  6. I can propose it in WA Labor…will likely get Left support….Anne Aly, currently President of WA Labor Women would be up for it….I saw her last night….

  7. guytaur says:
    Tuesday, September 3, 2019 at 10:38 pm
    The delusion on this blog is scary.

    The delusion you exhibit is formidable, but not at all scary.

  8. caf
    says:
    Tuesday, September 3, 2019 at 11:05 pm
    It’s crazy the difference the Oklahoma / Texas border makes in that map.
    _______________________________
    Due to Sanders support in white areas and Clinton getting a huge share of Latino and African American voters? I had heard that race played a pivotal role in this primary but this map is bringing that out everywhere.

  9. The GST is a regressive tax. EGT’s concept would reverse the regressiveness. Consumers for whom the GST is the most punitive would derive relatively greater benefit from the rebate. Lovely idea.

  10. guytaur…the data is fine, but the info provided is completely irrelevant to the exchanges between the bludgers. That is, you claim there is ‘delusion’ but nothing you cite is at all relevant to your claim.

  11. Danama…. personally I’m not much invested in the US election. I like Warren and Harris. But I’m a very distant observer. If Sanders gets the gig the Republicans will probably win everything. Democrats won’t come out for him. But it’s not something we can influence. I have other things to think about.

  12. Democrats who don’t turn out to vote for Hillary: treacherous splitters.

    Democrats who don’t turn out to vote for Sanders: “true Democrats”.

    Much like those “true Laborites” who decided to use their votes to help Abbott slither into the Prime Ministership, come to think of it.

    “Loyalty” really is all in the eye of the outrageously hypocritical beholder!

  13. Briefly

    It is as accurate (perhaps more so) to say that it targets the rebate at those with the greatest propensity to spend, thus maximising the boost to consumption and thus helping business (via increased sales) and thereby the whole economy. Just as importantly, presented in this way it does not trigger downward envy.

  14. itsthevibe…

    Sanders has very high unfavourables because he has made his political living out of campaigning against Democrats. A lot of Democratic-identifying partisans do not read Sanders as being one of them. That is hardly their fault. He has campaigned against their favourites…insulted them and insulted their supporters too.

    Politics is a team sport. A lot of Democrats do not think Sanders has been on their team. He will have trouble invoking their support….and he will need it to win.

  15. This is going to hurt the Coalition:

    HCF, the nation’s largest non-profit fund, advised members on Monday it was clawing back higher fees charged by public hospitals in NSW and the ACT, leaving members there with out-of-pocket expenses of $320 per night.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/320-a-night-to-stay-in-a-public-hospital-after-two-funds-slash-rebate-20190903-p52nh9.html

    Private Health Insurance, one of the pillars of snobbery that marks you out as a Coalition voter (although, yes, I realise that a lot of working class people also struggle to have PHI, but also, increasingly it seems, they are gravitating towards the Coalition as a voting inversion occurs and former Labor-voting demographics flip to the Conservatives and the educated middle class flips to Labor and The Greens), it looks like it’s collapsing.

    It looks to me like PHI is being abandoned by the young and relatively healthy but not wealthy, because, if you aren’t getting pay rises, why bother? Thus it is increasingly being tailored to the wealthy Baby Boomers.

    Oh well, I guess they can use their Franking Credits to pay for it, eh? 🙂

  16. ‘In the states it’s very important to get out the base. That means you don’t win by being the “lesser evil” candidate. You have to stand for something.’

    Are you seriously saying that Clinton’s only platform was “I’m not Trump’?

    I’m always bemused (sorry) by people who say how great Obama was and then say Hillary lost because she offered ‘more of the same’.

    In other words, she was going to keep on doing what Obama was doing (I’d argue she’d have done it better, because, unlike Obama, she knew her way around Washington).

    If Obama was terrific, and Hillary was going to continue to deliver what he’d been delivering, then the only difference would be that it would be being delivered by a white woman.

  17. No more persiflage and spin (though Boris’ Brexiteers are trying, as leaked documents show), in the British parliament. They are calling a spade a bloody shovel:

    In a scathing resignation letter to Johnson, Dr Lee said the Brexit process “has helped to transform this once great party into something more akin to a narrow faction, where an individual’s ‘conservatism’ is measured by how recklessly one wishes to leave the European Union.”

    “Perhaps most disappointingly, it has increasingly become infected with the twin diseases of populism and English nationalism,” the letter said.

    …Johnson came under attack from another Conservative during the debate: former Chancellor Ken Clarke.

    Clarke said Johnson had an “obvious strategy” to set unrealistic conditions making a no-deal Brexit inevitable, and to “make sure as much blame as possible is attached to the EU and to this House for that consequence”.

    “Then as quickly as he can [he will] fight a flag-waving general election before the consequences of no-deal become too obvious to the public,” he said.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/johnson-government-fatally-wounded-as-raucous-parliament-debates-brexit-20190904-p52nob.html

    We live in interesting times.

  18. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    It’s all happening in the UK parliament as Johnson is not getting his own way.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/johnson-government-fatally-wounded-as-raucous-parliament-debates-brexit-20190904-p52nob.html
    Shoppers closed their wallets in July, pocketing cash or paying off debt with more than $3 billion in tax cuts that had been deposited into bank accounts, leaving retailers watching on as sales fell across the country reports the dynamic duo Wright and Bagshaw. The stagnation of wages is really biting now.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/government-braces-for-poor-gdp-result-as-shoppers-keep-wallets-shut-20190903-p52nj2.html
    “A $16 billion cash boost for consumers – so why aren’t we shopping?”, asks Elizabeth Knight. IMHO people who are relatively well off have no pent up demand and those that are no are too frightened to spend given their accumulated debt, diminished job security and stymied wage growth.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/a-16-billion-cash-boost-for-consumers-so-why-aren-t-we-shopping-20190903-p52njn.html
    There are two key reasons why Reserve Bank boss Philip Lowe decided to keep interest rates steady at Tuesday’s board meeting – and neither have anything to do with the ruddy good health of the Australian economy says the AFR.
    https://outline.com/H2Xgv6
    By doing what he did during the election campaign, Scott Morrison made his Christian faith part of his electoral appeal. So the government can hardly complain when it is invoked by the Opposition, says Phil Coorey.
    https://outline.com/p6Wg5L
    Dana McCauley tells us that lawyers are preparing to lodge compensation claims – potentially worth millions of dollars -on behalf of dozens of asylum seekers who say their medical treatment was delayed while they waited in Nauru and Papua New Guinea.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/government-facing-multimillion-dollar-refugee-compensation-claims-20190903-p52nem.html
    And David Crowe says that Albanese has upped the pressure on Morrison over the Tamil family’s deportation.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-ups-pressure-on-pm-over-tamil-family-s-deportation-20190903-p52nmk.html
    But breaking the rules for one family is unfair to everybody else trumpets Amanda Vanstone.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/breaking-the-rules-for-one-family-is-unfair-to-everybody-else-20190903-p52nf4.html
    And the Biloela family would be automatically barred from returning to Australia if deported – and even if Immigration Minister David Coleman chooses to intervene, the family could be left with a seven-figure debt to the Commonwealth, a former senior Immigration official says.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6363537/cruel-twist-in-biloela-tamil-family-case/?cs=14225
    Michelle Grattan says Morrison and Dutton are blocking their ears and gritting their teeth over the Tamil family issue. She’s not at all complimentary.
    https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-morrison-and-dutton-block-their-ears-and-grit-their-teeth-over-tamil-family-122866
    Helen Davidson explains why the treatment of the Biloela Tamil family distresses so many.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/04/no-explaining-why-the-treatment-of-the-biloela-tamil-family-distresses-so-many
    “I’m a ‘quiet Australian’, but Scott Morrison doesn’t speak for me”, says Warwick McFadyen.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/i-m-a-quiet-australian-but-scott-morrison-doesn-t-speak-for-me-20190903-p52nfx.html
    Alexandra Smith reports that two Liberal MPs have told Premier Gladys Berejiklian they will push the Coalition into minority government unless their abortion bill demands are met.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/liberal-mps-tell-premier-they-will-defect-to-crossbench-over-abortion-bill-20190903-p52njk.html
    After 44 years of deficits, we’ve a current account surplus. What went so right, ponders Peter Martin.
    https://theconversation.com/after-44-years-of-deficits-weve-a-current-account-surplus-what-went-so-right-122858
    The SMH editorial says that Morrison made a serious mistake on a historic trip to East Timor last week by refusing to address the injustice Australia is committing against two of the tiny island nation’s best friends and we should stop punishing Witness K for telling the truth.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/stop-punishing-witness-k-for-telling-the-truth-on-east-timor-20190903-p52nkt.html
    Consumer advocacy group CHOICE has called for immediate action to crack down on new-look payday lending operators, accusing the government of taking more than 1,000 days to act on an issue lawmakers have described as “urgent.”
    https://www.theage.com.au/money/banking/calls-for-urgent-government-crackdown-on-small-credit-contracts-20190903-p52nh1.html
    Matt Wade looks at how we have fared after the Gillard government’s white paper on the “Asian century” was released.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/how-s-the-asian-century-turning-out-for-you-20190903-p52ng2.html
    Former Chief Scientist Ian Chubb proclaims that this is no time for hunches – we need evidence and expertise in science.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/04/this-is-no-time-for-hunches-we-need-evidence-and-expertise-in-science
    “How much destruction is needed for us to take climate change seriously?”, asks Karen Aranoff.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/03/how-much-destruction-is-needed-for-us-to-take-climate-change-seriously
    Nice try Mr Taylor, but Australia’s gas exports don’t help solve climate change writes climate researcher Tim Baxter.
    https://theconversation.com/nice-try-mr-taylor-but-australias-gas-exports-dont-help-solve-climate-change-122715
    Child sex offenders could face life behind bars under laws to be re-introduced to federal parliament next week. Predators who commit serious crimes against children could also face mandatory minimum sentences, while repeat offenders would find it much harder to get bail reports Daniel McCulloch.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6363131/worst-pedophiles-could-be-jailed-for-life/?cs=14350
    Journalists from Nine Entertainment’s three major newspapers have written to management to “strongly object” to Nine hosting a $10,000 a head Liberal party fundraiser which they say compromises the mastheads’ reputation for independence.
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/sep/03/smh-age-and-afr-journalists-condemn-liberal-fundraiser-hosted-at-nines-tv-studios
    A significant shareholder in Australian casino heavyweight Star Group has strong links to a Hong Kong businessman banned from any involvement in rival Crown’s new Barangaroo facility due to concerns about his links to organised crime writes Nick O’Malley. Casinos tend to attract a certain type of person don’t they.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/star-casino-partner-has-close-ties-to-banned-businessman-20190902-p52n5h.html
    Christopher Knaus reports that Labor’s lawyers have accused a former state MP of betraying his obligations to the party by attempting to hide donations from a Chinese billionaire and banned donor, Huang Xiangmo.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/03/former-labor-mp-denies-cultivating-chinese-billionaire-to-secure-political-future
    The Greens have called for a Hawke-style humanitarian response for Hong Kongers living in Australia, as concerns grow for the safety of Australians living in the Chinese territory.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-pushed-to-offer-safe-haven-to-hong-kong-citizens-in-australia-20190903-p52nij.html
    Dana McCauley outlines how Australians insured with HCF face hundreds of dollars per night in out-of-pocket fees if they are admitted to NSW public hospitals as private patients in a private room after the health fund became the latest to slash benefits.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/320-a-night-to-stay-in-a-public-hospital-after-two-funds-slash-rebate-20190903-p52nh9.html
    Paul Budde looks at the hyping of 5G as an alternative to our substandard NBN.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/the-5g-answer-to-the-second-rate-nbn,13067
    Instances of private health insurers knocking back legitimate claims are indicators of Australia’s struggling, ad-hoc system, industry leaders say as the ACCC says it will drag Medibank to court, alleging the company’s budget provider, ahm, incorrectly told customers they were not eligible for certain benefits under their level of cover – when they actually were.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/wellbeing/2019/09/03/health-insurance-medibank-accc/
    A little-known but potentially important change of recent times has been a trend towards cheaper loans for people who have more equity in their property advises Clancy Yeates.
    https://www.smh.com.au/money/borrowing/cheaper-rates-for-big-deposits-as-banks-price-for-risk-20190828-p52lqh.html
    In a satirical piece Dave Donovan writes that in a major setback for transgender rights, Prime Minister Scott Morrison today placed a blanket ban on unisex toilets in Australia.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/pm-morrisons-blanket-ban-on-unisex-toilets-in-memory-of-engadine-maccas,13069
    Walmart will stop selling some types of ammunition and ask customers to not openly carry firearms in its aisles in the wake of two deadly shootings in its stores that pressured the nation’s largest retailer to alter its gun-sales policies. Too little too late!
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/walmart-to-stop-selling-some-ammunition-exit-handgun-market-20190904-p52nok.html
    The Brexit ultras cheer him, but the Boris Johnson pantomime will end, writes Rafael Behr.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/03/brexit-ultras-pantomime-boris-johnson
    Undeniable cracks are opening in the US economy as the trade war slams factories.
    https://outline.com/BYgRSv
    London Mayor Sadiq Khan never holds back when getting stuck into Trump.
    https://outline.com/gyJuPF

    Cartoon Corner

    A beauty from David Rowe. It looks like Dutton is drinking Terra Bitter.

    Cathy Wilcox’s good form continues.

    John Shakespeare takes aim at Morrison.

    Michel Leunig with one of his better contributions.

    From Matt Golding.




    Andrew Dyson and Trump’s trade winds.

    Glen Le Lievre and climate change.

    Mark David and the government’s economic model.

    Peter Broelman and Border Force management techniques.

    Great work from Fiona Katauskas.

    A good one from Zanetti as he makes a valid point.

    From Rocco Fazzari.

    Something similar from Glen Le Lievre.

    Jon Kudelka and a certain short-lived celebration.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/ac335fd61f039da74ddb6376bc4c4749?width=1024

    From the US








  19. Bye bye BoJo – loses the first vote of his PM-ship, with the Commons taking over control of the legislative agenda

    9s ago
    22:11
    MPs back move to allow bill to block no-deal Brexit by majority of 27

    MPs have backed the motion to allow a debate on a bill tomorrow that would prevent a no-deal Brexit on 31 October by 328 votes to 301 – a majority of 27.

  20. BK

    With their 5 year fixed terms, BoJo needs two thirds of Parliament to suspend that provision and proceed to an early election. This will not be pretty..

  21. It looks to me like PHI is being abandoned by the young and relatively healthy but not wealthy, because, if you aren’t getting pay rises, why bother? Thus it is increasingly being tailored to the wealthy Baby Boomers.

    That, and a recently privatised Medibank Private was so obsessed with cutting covered items on the quiet that they didn’t notice that credit card payments were failing for >= 9 months.

    The “you are no longer covered” email was the first indication that there was a problem…
    “Just pay for the 9 months of cover you didn’t have, and you’ll be sweet.” “Ah… No.”

  22. Jaeger @ #1294 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 7:28 am

    It looks to me like PHI is being abandoned by the young and relatively healthy but not wealthy, because, if you aren’t getting pay rises, why bother? Thus it is increasingly being tailored to the wealthy Baby Boomers.

    That, and a recently privatised Medibank Private was so obsessed with cutting covered items on the quiet that they didn’t notice that credit card payments were failing for >= 9 months.

    The “you are no longer covered” email was the first indication that there was a problem…
    “Just pay for the 9 months of cover you didn’t have, and you’ll be sweet.” “Err… No.”

    Ah, Medibank Private. Wasn’t that privatised under Joe Hockey’s watch as Treasurer, with one of their patented hard-arse capitalists in place at the top to run it?

    Not very smart though. A smash and grab for the cash without thinking it through, that another tenet of NeoLiberalism…wage stagnation…would get in the way of people having 9 months worth of premiums up their sleeve to pay for it. 😐

  23. Labour tactics clear now. They won’t give Johnson the 2/3 majority he needs to call an early election UNLESS he allows the Bill to not allow a No Deal Brexit to pass the House. 🙂

  24. Jaeger @ #1294 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 7:28 am

    It looks to me like PHI is being abandoned by the young and relatively healthy but not wealthy, because, if you aren’t getting pay rises, why bother? Thus it is increasingly being tailored to the wealthy Baby Boomers.

    That, and a recently privatised Medibank Private was so obsessed with cutting covered items on the quiet that they didn’t notice that credit card payments were failing for >= 9 months.

    The “you are no longer covered” email was the first indication that there was a problem…
    “Just pay for the 9 months of cover you didn’t have, and you’ll be sweet.” “Ah… No.”

    As soon as the legislation for privatizing Medibank Private went through, I transferred Health Insurance to a mutually owned alternative.

    One of my best financial decisions ever. Better coverage, better service and I know there isn’t some corporate vampire sucking on it.

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