The Courier-Mail/Sunday Mail has followed up yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy state results, which were covered here, with the federal voting intention findings from the same poll. This records the Coalition with a 55-45 lead in the state, from primary votes of Coalition 40%, Labor 29%, One Nation 13% and Greens 12%. However, Scott Morrison records a commanding 46-23 over Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister.
According to taste, you can interpret the voting intention results as:
• An improvement for Labor on the election result, at which the Coalition recorded a thumping 58.6-41.4 two-party preferred win in the state, from primary votes of Coalition 43.7%, Labor 26.7%, Greens 10.3% and One Nation 8.9%;
• A surge to the Coalition compared with the last YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, which was conducted a week-and-a-half before the May 18 election and proved, like all pre-election polling from the state, to be very badly astray. That poll had the Coalition leading 51-49, from primary votes of Coalition 38%, Labor 33%, Greens 9% and One Nation 9%.
The latter result, which was similar to Newspoll state breakdowns of the time, is worth revisiting, as it more-or-less accurately predicted the vote shares for the minor parties (albeit a shade too low for the Greens), and may have done well enough for the major parties among women – but it very clearly dropped the ball among Queensland men, who plainly didn’t come close to the dead even two-party split attributed to them by the poll.
Thank goodness for Laura Tingle and Mark Kenny to set Gerard straight on the facts.
Pegasus @ #47 Sunday, September 1st, 2019 – 9:12 am
Given Labor already receive 80% of the Greens preferences, then it makes sense for Labor to pursue a bigger share of the ON vote.
Gosh, coming out with the predictable ‘promise’ early, aren’t they.
Before every state and federal election the line gets trotted out by the political duopoly.
When the power of government beckons, resolve tends to crumble.
Fran Kelly is being very snappy with Tanya this morning.
This is one reason I don’t listen to RN Breakfast. Fran Kelly continually talking over and interrupting her interviewees.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/what-exactly-is-the-labor-brand-these-days-an-aldi-shopping-bag-20190830-p52mh3.html
Ouch.
The Coalition and Labor in lockstep:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ministers-and-staff-charged-taxpayers-millions-to-travel-the-country-during-election-campaign-20190830-p52mip.html
Are the Greens advancing backwards?
You be the judge.
Comparing the latest election percentage with their best ever election percentages, the Greens are at their best ever in Queensland.
Beyond that, comparing their best outcome with their latest outcome, the Greens have:
lost 34% of their vote in the ACT
lost 27% of their vote in the NT
lost 25% of their vote in WA lower house
lost 20% of their vote in WA Upper House
lost 7% of their vote in New South Wales
lost 51% of their vote in Tasmania
lost 15% of their vote in Victoria
lost 12% of their vote in the Fed Reps
lost 22% of their vote in the Senate.
On this basis, some Greens presume to give Labor advice on how to improve Labor’s vote! IMHO, the Greens are cheeky little wombats.
Details
ACT
Highest ever vote 2008 = 15.6%
Current vote 2016 = 10.3%
Percentage loss of Greens votes from highest vote to current vote = 5.3%
Loss of votes as a percentage of highest ever vote = 34%.
NT
Highest ever vote 2008 = 4.17%
Latest vote 2016 = – 2.9%
Percentage loss of Greens votes from highest vote to current vote = 1.27%
Loss of votes as a percentage of highest ever vote = 27%.
Western Australia
Legislative Assembly
Highest ever vote 2008 = 11.92%
Current vote 2017 = 8.91%
Percentage loss of Greens votes from highest vote to current vote = 3.01%
Loss of votes as a percentage of highest ever vote = 25%.
Western Australia
Legislative Council
Highest ever vote 2008 = 11.08%
Current vote 2017 = 8.91%
Percentage loss of Greens votes from highest vote to current vote = 2.17%
Loss of votes as a percentage of highest ever vote = 20%.
New South Wales
State Lower House
2011 = 10.3%
Highest ever vote 2015 = 10.3%
Latest vote 2019 = 9.6%
Percentage loss of Greens votes from highest vote to current vote = .7%
Loss of votes as a percentage of highest ever vote = 7%.
Tasmania
State Lower House
Highest ever vote 2010 = 21.6%
Latest vote 2018 = 10.6%
Percentage loss of Greens votes from highest vote to current vote = 11%
Loss of votes as a percentage of highest ever vote =51%.
Victoria
State
Highest ever vote 2014 = 11.5%
Latest vote 2018 = 10.7%
Percentage loss of Greens votes from highest vote to current vote = 1.8%
Loss of votes as a percentage of highest ever vote =15%.
South Australia
State Assembly
2010 = 8.11%
Highest ever vote 2014 = 8.70%
Latest vote 2018 = 6.66%
Percentage loss of Greens votes from highest vote to current vote = 2.04%
Loss of votes as a percentage of highest ever vote =23%.
Federal Elections
Representatives
Highest ever vote 2010 = 11.76%
Latest ever vote 2019 = 10.4%
Percentage loss of Greens votes from highest vote to current vote = 1.36%
Loss of votes as a percentage of highest ever vote =12%.
Senate
Highest ever vote 2010 = 13.11%
Latest ever vote 2019 = 10.19%
Percentage loss of Greens votes from highest vote to current vote =2.92%
Loss of votes as a percentage of highest ever vote =22%.
Yikes!!
https://www.facebook.com/Alexwoods.13/videos/vb.100001755685433/2413154765419689/?type=2&video_source=user_video_tab
Ouch says the Greens leadership with a soul embedded within the confines of a soulless Liberal party.
I’m sorry to hear about Jane Matthews.
At the women in law awards last Friday week, she was spoken of incredibly fondly because of her incredible achievements .
I did not know that she was unwell. She was a contemporary of and sat on the bench with my father
“And there goes Firefox, back at me with a puerile ‘zinger’ of his own. ”
***
Don’t like the taste of your own medicine?
***
“Doesn’t alter the fact that The Greens are now less popular than One Nation in Queensland.”
***
That depends on the poll. The one from yesterday has them both on 13%. This is in Australia’s most conservative state. 12% is a very healthy result for us and shows strong growth.
Honestly, I’m surprised that One Nation aren’t higher after reading the comments section of The Courier Mail yesterday. The far right nutters up there aren’t exactly in love with the QLD opposition or their leader. There’s not a huge amount of enthusiasm behind Deb Frecklington from what I can tell.
Here we go again
https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/_/id/27505948/australia-consider-mitchell-marsh-matthew-wade-switch
Comparing their best outcome with their latest outcome, the Greens have:
lost 34% of their vote in the ACT
lost 27% of their vote in the NT
lost 25% of their vote in WA lower house
lost 20% of their vote in WA Upper House
lost 7% of their vote in New South Wales
lost 51% of their vote in Tasmania
lost 15% of their vote in Victoria
lost 12% of their vote in the Fed Reps
lost 22% of their vote in the Senate.
Let’s all listen to their political advice!
Boerwar:
And most of that loss has occurred under Tricky Dicky’s leadership.
Firefox
Enthusiasm behind all political leaders seems at an all time low. Lack of enthusiasm seems to have become the necessary trait for a shot at the title. The winner is the least alternative.
shellbell @ #64 Sunday, September 1st, 2019 – 9:42 am
I suppose the theory is that Australia need a dynamic shot player at 6 like Stokes who also bowls.
Usman for Harris at the top and Starc for Pattinson could be happening as well.
I would have thought that Religious Australians were noisy Australians.
‘C@tmomma says:
Sunday, September 1, 2019 at 9:47 am
I would have thought that Religious Australians were noisy Australians.’
The vast majority are just like you and me.
C@tmomma @ #69 Sunday, September 1st, 2019 – 9:47 am
Not nearly as noisy as the rabid bigots that infest places like PB.
How do you define ‘reasonable constraints’ by an employer on a religious employee!?!
Tingle raises the same question I have about the focus on christianity in this debate.
Gerald Henderson sticking to the party line. Catholics are being persecuted.
Greensborough Growler @ #71 Sunday, September 1st, 2019 – 9:49 am
It depends on your definition of bigotry. It’s complex.
I agree with Mark Kenny. The religious freedom bill is a solution looking for a problem.
Seems that Christian Porter deserves praise for his middle-of-the-road treatment of religious ‘freedom’.
But as Chris Kenny said, “What was the problem anyway?”
C@tmomma @ #75 Sunday, September 1st, 2019 – 9:52 am
Not really.
My favourite Gollism:
Goll
says:
Tuesday, April 2, 2019 at 4:03 pm
Nath
Your conclusions do not justify your continuously positive summation of the successful career of our next PM. My conclusion is that you have a seriously obsessive disorder. Just admit that Shorten has been very good at what he does best.In all likelihood Shorten is going to be around for a long time.Enjoy the next ten years served by a progressive and fair Labor government.
Confessions @ #73 Sunday, September 1st, 2019 – 9:51 am
Yes, I was hoping she might have given an example of a Muslim person Tweeting something outrageous, by way of an apposite example.
C@t:
Yep, Fierrvanti-Wells, Abetz and co should be careful what they wish for in terms of the legislation.
Gerard still partying like the Cold War is still with us.
Gerard says WW2 was caused by “the Left”. He never lets up, does he!
Boerwar, I’m not spending all day going round in circles with you and I really don’t feel the need to add anything to what I said yesterday…
***
It’s very easy to judge the performance of the two parties over the course of the decade. All you have to do is subtract the results of the 2007 election (which is what the numbers still were in 2009 when the decade started) from the results of the 2019 election.
House:
Greens 2019 (1,482,923) – 2007 (967,789) = a massive INCREASE of + 515,134
Labor 2019 (4,752,160) – 2007 (5,388,184) = a massive DECREASE of -636,024
2019: https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-24310-NAT.htm
2007: https://results.aec.gov.au/13745/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-13745-NAT.htm
Senate:
Greens 2019 (1,488,427) – 2007 (1,144,751) = a massive INCREASE of +343,676
Labor 2019 (4,204,313) – 2007 (5,101,200) = a massive DECREASE of -896,887
2019: https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/SenateStateFirstPrefsByGroup-24310-NAT.htm
2007: https://results.aec.gov.au/13745/Website/SenateStateFirstPrefsByGroup-13745-NAT.htm
Comparing their best outcome with their latest outcome, and despite Firefox’s desperate attempts to polish the lily, the Greens have:
lost 34% of their vote in the ACT
lost 27% of their vote in the NT
lost 25% of their vote in WA lower house
lost 20% of their vote in WA Upper House
lost 7% of their vote in New South Wales
lost 51% of their vote in Tasmania
lost 15% of their vote in Victoria
lost 12% of their vote in the Fed Reps
lost 22% of their vote in the Senate.
How much further the Greens have to advance before they disappear completely?
Are the Right laughing all the way to Government?
Gerard (from the ex-NSW IPA, now called ” The Sydney Institute”) gets in a reference to the Nazi-Soviet pact of the 1930s, AND manages to blame Labor for it.
10 points for chutzpah, Gerard.
They way Boerwar plays with numbers indicates that the ATO should be paying close attention to him.
Greensborough Growler @ #78 Sunday, September 1st, 2019 – 9:54 am
…If you see the world in black and white and your religious perspective of it, likewise.
But, hey, Greensborough Growler, we are all here well aware of your religious perspectives and devout Catholic Faith. However, it doesn’t make you, or your opinions about such matters more correct than anyone else. Something you would do well to keep in mind. Instead of just crafting one gimcrack put down, after another, of those with differing opinions.
Not that I think you will stop. 🙂
Good lord, firefox, you believe in pollls?
That’s so 2018.
lizzie @ #83 Sunday, September 1st, 2019 – 10:00 am
And, ‘supported by the Left in Australia’.
What he doesn’t elucidate about that point is that it was the Communist Party of Australia who supported Stalin…until the full horrors of it all made the scales fall from their eyes.
Firefox seems to think that pointing out that Labor is getting an electoral pizzling somehow demonstrates that the Greens are not going backwards!
This is Greensthink!
As noted elsewhere, there are swings and roundabouts and the Firefox clutches at the swings. So what if there is a bit of movement between elections?
The big picture is that comparing their best ever with right now, the Greens are going backwards.
Comparing their best ever to their current outcomes, the Greens have lost half their vote in Tasmania, a third of their vote in the ACT, a quarter of their vote in the NT, a quarter of their vote in the WA lower house, a fifth of their vote in the WA upper house and a fifth of their vote in the Senate.
On the basis of this superlative set of numbers, Di Natale promised that the Greens would be forming Government within 20 years!
nath
Love your humour! It’s obvious many don’t and take you way too seriously.
I think Boerwar deserves kudos for changing his repetitive stream. The question is how long will it be before he finds another anti-Greens tack.
Speaking for myself, I await with anticipation.
C@tmomma @ #72 Sunday, September 1st, 2019 – 9:50 am
Although the booties should come in a range of colours to suit various personalities. 😇😇☕
Peg’s Pride and Joy:
Comparing their best outcome with their latest outcome, and despite Firefox’s desperate attempts to polish the lily, the Greens have:
lost 34% of their vote in the ACT
lost 27% of their vote in the NT
lost 25% of their vote in WA lower house
lost 20% of their vote in WA Upper House
lost 7% of their vote in New South Wales
lost 51% of their vote in Tasmania
lost 15% of their vote in Victoria
lost 12% of their vote in the Fed Reps
lost 22% of their vote in the Senate.
Could it be that Greens voters are suffering cut and past fatigue?
“How do you define ‘reasonable constraints’ by an employer on a religious employee!?!”
Is the leather of good quality?
The studs bright and shiney.”
All bullshit of course. Govt wanting to be seen to do something as they have no actual policy and governance agenda. Seems to me at the moment this is legislation to chill any debate and give the vocal rentacostals and other religious bigots something to hide behind. All when we actually need a bit of freedom from religion.
Pegasus
says:
Sunday, September 1, 2019 at 10:10 am
nath
Love your humour! It’s obvious many don’t and take you way too seriously.
I think Boerwar deserves kudos for changing his repetitive stream. The question is how long will it be before he finds another anti-Greens tack.
________________________________
Perhaps he will find a study that indicates that the colour Green is fading in popularity amongst school children and that this augurs poorly for the Greens.
Geoff Watson makes a point worth considering: WHY would the Chinese government try to influence the NSW (or any other) state election?
I add one of my own, that I brought up last week: if the Opposition in NSW gets $100,000, how much does the government get?
And if the state parties score 6-figure cash donations, how much do the Feds earn from Chinese agents of influence? And why?
This applies especially to the parties that are becoming the habitual federal government: the federal Liberals and Nationals.
I doubt whether they get their moolah in plastic bags. More like a discreet direct deposit to a holding account in Switzerland or the Caymans you’d think.
lol polls
The biggie with religous freedom is that Islam is a religion.
As opposed to Boerwarthink! More unkind posters would probably suggest Borewarthink.