Essential Research: leadership ratings, US and China, abortion law

Higher disapproval ratings for both leaders in the latest Essential poll, which also records lukewarm feelings towards the United States and cooler ones for China.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll again comes up empty on voting intention, but it does offer the pollster’s third set of leadership ratings since the election. As with Newspoll, these record a drop in Scott Morrison’s net approval rating, owing to a three point rise in disapproval to 37%, while his approval holds steady at 48%. However, Essential parts company with Newspoll in finding Anthony Albanese up on disapproval as well, by five points to 29%, with approval down one to 38%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows slightly, from 44-26 to 44-28.

Further questions suggest the public leans positive on most aspects of the “influence of the United States of America” (defence, trade, cultural and business), excepting a neutral result (42% positive, 40% negative) for influence on Australian politics. The same exercise for China finds positive results for trade, neutral results for culture and business, and negative ones for defence and politics. Asked which of the two we would most benefit from strengthening ties with, 38% of respondents favoured the US and 28% China.

The small sample of respondents from New South Wales were also asked about the proposed removal of abortion from the criminal code, which was supported by an overwhelming 71% compared with 17% opposed. The poll has a sample of 1096 and was conducted online from Thursday to Sunday.

Note also the post below this one, being the latest Brexit update from Adrian Beaumont.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,826 comments on “Essential Research: leadership ratings, US and China, abortion law”

  1. Dan Gulberry @ #1039 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 11:42 am

    Jeez the stockmarket is a funny old beast.

    Qantas (QAN) profit for 2019 financial year down 17%. It’s shares are up today by 3.37%;
    Webjet (WEB) profit for 2019 financial year up 46%. It’s shares are down today by 10.11%;

    Go figure.

    Qantas has to buy jet fuel to move bodies and other things in meatspace. Webjet monetises information and convenience. Read Zuboff.

  2. chris murphy @chrismurphys
    ·
    34m
    An identical twin that dresses the same! Surprise! Paedophile’s mate:
    “The Archbishop of Melbourne has dramatically claimed he still believes George Pell is innocent and suggested the cardinal’s surviving victim may have been abused by someone else.” #PellPaedophile

  3. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, August 22, 2019 at 11:34 am

    Barney in Makassar @ #119 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 9:56 am

    Guytaur,

    Your incoherence is actually quite amusing at times.

    I call it Pretzel Logic.

    Nah, it’s guytaur logic!

    It has similarities with Asian logic.

    At the moment I’m trying to rent a house.
    I saw it on Monday, but couldn’t look inside because the rental agent didn’t have the key. I arranged to go back yesterday, but the agent cancelled because the owner couldn’t be there.
    I asked, why the agent couldn’t get the key from her and show me the house.
    He responded, that she wouldn’t give it to him.

    So she’s engaged an agent to rent her property, but won’t give the agent the ability to show prospective renters the property.

    After proposing several times, which I had alrea advised I wouldn’t be available for, we’ve finally settled on next Monday evening at about the same time as I originally view the house last Monday.

    Complete the circle! 😆

    Does guytaur have any property holdings in Makassar? 🙂

  4. rhwombat @ #151 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 9:49 am

    Dan Gulberry @ #1039 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 11:42 am

    Jeez the stockmarket is a funny old beast.

    Qantas (QAN) profit for 2019 financial year down 17%. It’s shares are up today by 3.37%;
    Webjet (WEB) profit for 2019 financial year up 46%. It’s shares are down today by 10.11%;

    Go figure.

    Qantas has to buy jet fuel to move bodies and other things in meatspace. Webjet monetises information and convenience. Read Zuboff.

    My comment was meant to be tongue in cheek. I am fully aware that the reaction to profit announcements is based more on what the company says about its future prospects than it is about the announced figures for the previous year.

  5. Pauline suddenly has cold feet!!

    Robert Baird @rj_baird
    · 1h
    BREAKING: Pauline Hanson has had a change of heart on #Uluru. She’s told ABC Alice Springs she respects the decision to close the climb “because there’s no real safety”. (Although she would like it to remain open if safety was addressed).

  6. Firefox says:
    Thursday, August 22, 2019 at 11:35 am

    “Firefox,

    And yet you conflate the first and second Gulf Wars as being the same!”

    Perhaps you should go a re-read that post. I was quoting an article, the author of which was making the point that Labor supported the first Gulf War. Nowhere did the author say that it was for the same reasons as the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Nowhere. You have made that up yourself, along with wrongly attributing it to me when I was actually quoting a linked article.

    You chose to highlight those passages in which the author clearly suggests that Labor would have made the same choice because it had joined the first War.

    If you didn’t want to make that point, why did you highlight that part of the article?

  7. Barney in Makassar @ #135 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 11:07 am

    Having been part of fucking the place up, surely there exists a responsibility to restore a functioning Society?

    What’s that got to do with supporting our troops?

    And I don’t know. To the extent that that advocates further action in the Middle East, with more fighting, more collateral damage, and more civilian deaths it’s kind of like two wrongs trying to make a right.

    I think that when it comes to the situation in the Middle East there’s no ethical/responsible option available any longer. It was wrong to go there in the first place. Staying there won’t help things in any meaningful way. Leaving won’t undo what has already been done.

    So may as well do the simple, cheap, and easy thing. Leave, and let the rest of the chips fall where they may. And then demonstrate responsibility by allowing the whole sordid affair stand as a stark reminder of why we should not blindly follow the U.S. headlong into every ill-conceived war they want to start and exercising some restraint the next time they try to start one.

  8. lizzie says:
    Thursday, August 22, 2019 at 12:00 pm

    Pauline suddenly has cold feet!!

    Robert Baird @rj_baird
    · 1h
    BREAKING: Pauline Hanson has had a change of heart on #Uluru. She’s told ABC Alice Springs she respects the decision to close the climb “because there’s no real safety”. (Although she would like it to remain open if safety was addressed).

    Lightweight, not willing to suffer for her convictions. 😆

    Maybe they could install a chairlift for her?

    That would save any exertion on her part! 😆

  9. lizzie @ #1047 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 12:00 pm

    Pauline suddenly has cold feet!!

    Robert Baird @rj_baird
    · 1h
    BREAKING: Pauline Hanson has had a change of heart on #Uluru. She’s told ABC Alice Springs she respects the decision to close the climb “because there’s no real safety”. (Although she would like it to remain open if safety was addressed).

    There is bound to be a German word for the acute Rightwingfuckwitfatigue that has afflicted everyone from Poorleen to Trumplestiltskin (via Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Trumpson, Scummo’s snotting of the Pacific, not to mention the shit from The Parrot, The Beetrooter and wosisname-the-deputy-dawg), but it’s probably longer than the English portmanteau equivalent. There seems to be a lot of it about. Funny how the Cranky Cow Head has disappeared.

  10. It’s ok, we’re off, you guys can sort it out!

    Yep. With deep apologies for ever having shown up in the first place.

    We had no idea what we were doing in the first place, have no idea today, and will continue to have no idea regardless of however long we stay there. Remaining accomplishes no more than leaving, aside from putting a thin veneer of “look how responsible we are” on the whole situation. Until you peer underneath and find soldiers murdering civilians, and private paramilitary contractors murdering civilians, and so on and so forth.

  11. And our treatment of military veterans leaves a lot to be desired.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-26/calls-for-royal-commission-over-the-rate-of/11250452

    There are growing calls for a royal commission into the rate of suicide among military veterans. An official estimate is there have been more than 370 suicides involving current or former defence personnel since 2001. Despite ongoing reforms, the Department of Veterans Affairs is under fire over how it treats compensation claims and the toll it takes on those who have served our country.

  12. poroti, a r,

    That partly comes from the stupidity of the original decision to start the thing and then allowing the US to control the aftermath.

    The US’s attitude afterwards was about imposition rather facilitating.

  13. @ABCthedrum
    ·
    16h
    “I’m very firmly of the view we shouldn’t be involved in this. I accept that we may have an economic interest in this. The last time an American president told us to get in a conflict, it was a moral, legal and a factual failure,” @RichardCBeasley on the Strait of Hormuz #TheDrum

    Morrison rushed to his mate’s side. Couldn’t Marles have expressed a little reservation? If he did, it hasn’t been reported.

  14. Pegasus

    Most definitely. It is a real tragedy.

    Having said that, friend whose son is veteran of Iraq war received superb help here in Melbourne with a dedicated department at one of our main hospitals specialising in this area

  15. I wonder if Americans will ever get it with military/automatic weapons or guns in general ????

    Elementary school cheer squad parents raffling off an AM-15 automatic weapon as a fundraiser

    Just weeks after a mass shooting in Dayton, Ohio killed nine people, only 200 miles away in Richmond, the cheer squad is selling raffle tickets to sell a semi-automatic gun.

    Fox19 reported Wednesday that the Junior Lions Cheer Team have infuriated Heather Chilton, who’s 7-year-old daughter is on the squad for the first time.

    “This is absurd, you’re having elementary kids sell your AR-15. Why?” Chilton said. “I highly doubt that something would happen with the gun, but say it did. Say one of the kids in the high school got a hold of it — got the AR-15 or AM-15 and shot up a school with it, and I’m the one that sold the raffle ticket to his dad?”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/08/elementary-school-cheer-squad-parents-raffling-off-an-am-15-automatic-weapon-as-a-fundraiser/

  16. Very sad news regarding Tim Fischer.

    Arguably one of Australia’s most famous railway enthusiasts. I was lucky to meet him in person at the reopening of the Lakeside to Gembrook section of Victoria’s famous ‘Puffing Billy’ line in 1998. A true gentleman even though my political beliefs were further to the left. On the day he asked lots of technical questions about the line, locomotives, etc and clearly was thrilled to be there.

  17. Barney in Makassar
    says:
    Nah, it’s guytaur logic!
    It has similarities with Asian logic….
    _________________
    Great story Barney. You’ve taken an odd property owner and projected her idiosyncrasies onto the people of an entire continent. I’d call it ‘Australian ignorance’ but in this case it’s just ‘Barney stupidity’.

  18. Robert Baird @rj_baird
    · 1h
    BREAKING: Pauline Hanson has had a change of heart on #Uluru. She’s told ABC Alice Springs she respects the decision to close the climb “because there’s no real safety”. (Although she would like it to remain open if safety was addressed).
    ______________________
    You have to be amazed at the strength of prejudice in someone for travelling thousands of miles just to piss off indigenous people, and then agree with them, but only for other reasons.

  19. @samanthamaiden
    ·
    8m
    Barnaby Joyce leads tributes to former Nationals leader Tim Fischer. “He had a erudite understanding of some of the most peculiar facts and figures and he was driven by a laser-like compass for what is right and wrong,” Mr Joyce told The New Daily.

    Edit: how would Barnaby know? Just taking the opportunity to seek publicity.

  20. So it seems it may not have been George Pell after all …

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-22/melbourne-archbishop-says-he-believes-george-pell-is-innocent/11437882

    Apparently, it could have been another Melbourne Archbishop who just happened to be in the same church at the same time …

    Archbishop Comensoli told interviewer Neil Mitchell he was not questioning whether the man had been abused, but whether he was abused by Pell.

    “But I genuinely think that I can take on my knowledge of the man in terms of George Pell and accept what he has said to me. I can also take on what I’ve heard of [Witness J] and what he’s said in terms of abuse.”

    Mr Mitchell asked the Archbishop: “So you’re not questioning he’s been abused. You’re questioning whether it was George Pell?”

    “Yes,” the Archbishop replied.

    The police need to get onto this. It shouldn’t be too hard to narrow the field of suspects 🙁

  21. Simon Katich says:

    Just some balance to the reasonable farewells to Tim Fischer.

    He was abominable wrt Mabo. His fear mongering was terrible. This is only a small snippet of his work at this time.

    Yes indeed. Tim `bucket-loads of extinguishment’ Fisher’ never overcame the very negative opinion I formed about him over his fear mongering efforts.

  22. jansant
    @Jansant

    The Amazon has been burning for 3 weeks and nobody notices until a leader says something outrageous about it. 20% of the worlds air at threat from climate change and corrupt politics blatantly allowing illegal clearing, but it’s the moronic comment that gets media attention.

  23. lizzie @ #177 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 1:11 pm

    @samanthamaiden
    ·
    8m
    Barnaby Joyce leads tributes to former Nationals leader Tim Fischer. “He had a erudite understanding of some of the most peculiar facts and figures and he was driven by a laser-like compass for what is right and wrong,” Mr Joyce told The New Daily.

    Which is a polite way of saying he had Autism, like his son, Harrison.

    Mr Fischer also worked to improve support for autism, a condition he and his son Harrison had.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/people/2019/08/22/tim-fischer-dead/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=News%20Alert%2020190822

    Though I doubt it will be disparaged in the same way that Greta Thunberg’s similar condition has been.

  24. Vale Tim Fisher, the last scandal-free National Party leader?

    To give Fisher credit where it is due, when working in government I never heard anyone suggest he was corrupt. It is the passing of a bygone era.

  25. Pegasus says:
    Thursday, August 22, 2019 at 10:07 am
    FDOTM nails it. His critics would probably disparage him as a member of the “pop left” or use other popular prejorative labels such as “extremist”, “greenie”.

    There’s the technically correct term, Lib-kin.

  26. In the inky depths of the coal whispering business, Greg Evans deserves a gold medal for reverse astroturfing. The man’s a genius.

    Astroturfing is the trick of fabricating grassroots opinion. Too easy. What if instead you really are grassroots — say you’re under-employed, for example, after leaving a high paid job with the Minerals Council of Australia last November running their coal side (as Evans did), but you want to create a voice that’s more credible than “Greg from central NSW”?

    Since February, a staggeringly wide trail of media stories has featured a new industry body, the Coal Council of Australia, represented by its CEO, Greg Evans. The Australian is a particular fan when the CCA puts the boot into politicians on climate change.

    What a performer Evans is! At CCA he’s not just chief exec, he’s also secretary, chairman, chief bottle washer and in fact the entire council. Coal Council of Australia was not set up as anything, in reality. It’s just a business name Evans registered on January 25. Greg owns it, as what ASIC calls a sole trader.

    https://www.afr.com/rear-window/how-greg-from-nsw-became-mr-coal-20190820-p52j3h

  27. Soc, how about the verbal lashing Canavan just gave Aurecon. Stunning. Aurecon had only a minor part of Adani work, yet Canavan loses the plot over it.

    Sensitive much? He should go on Home and Away or Survivor with that drama queen acting style of his.

  28. Player One

    “Apparently, it could have been another Melbourne Archbishop who just happened to be in the same church at the same time …”

    Pell’s defenders are getting desperate. Pell is a huge framed six-feet four man who was a football ruckman in his youth. The suggestion that two choiristers who saw Pell nearly every week they sang (mentioned in the trial) could get him mixed up with anyone else when standing in front of him is laughable.

  29. A document obtained under Freedom of Information laws that mining giant Shenhua tried to stop being released confirms there was no need for the NSW Government to use more than a quarter of a billion dollars in taxpayer funds to buy out half a mining lease owned by the company on the fertile Liverpool Plains.

    Two years after first seeking information under the Government Information (Public Access) Act, Lock the Gate Alliance has obtained a key document that reveals Shenhua revised its application to renew its coal exploration licence on the Liverpool Plains and only sought renewal of 50% or less of its licence area, which is standard practice when mining licences are renewed.

    LTGA spokesperson Georgina Woods said the documents confirmed Shenhua only wanted and needed half of its exploration licence area to proceed with the controversial Watermark coal mine project and there was no apparent reason for the NSW Government to pay $262 million in taxpayer funds to the company.

    “With the release of this document we have confirmation that Shenhua revised its application for renewal of its Liverpool Plains licence and was seeking renewal of only 50% or less of the area,” she said.

    “But we are still utterly in the dark about why the Government then gave this company more than a quarter of a billion taxpayer dollars for a licence renewal over land it apparently didn’t want anyway.

    https://www.lockthegate.org.au/shenhua_didn_t_need_a_quarter_of_a_billion_dollars_from_nsw_taxpayers_gipa_investigation

  30. SK

    Yes I was in contrast to Canavan really pleased to see Aurecon took that position. Engineering companies are full of young science and engineering graduates fully aware of the science on climate change so they would have had internal pressure too.

    Canavan did indeed sound desperate. I wonder what he has personally at stake?

  31. “But we are still utterly in the dark about why the Government then gave this company more than a quarter of a billion taxpayer dollars for a licence renewal over land it apparently didn’t want anyway.

    Corruption. There seems to be a lot of it going around the Coalition government scene these days. You have to wonder also why Barnaby Joyce was such a vocal booster for the project.

  32. Have a crew laying fibre past our front yard. asked one of them what was going on as in putting another node in further along the street. Answer? nope, upgrading so FTTP can be connected. WTF didn’t they do that in the first place?.

  33. Socrates @ #188 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 1:36 pm

    Pell’s defenders are getting desperate. Pell is a huge framed six-feet four man who was a football ruckman in his youth. The suggestion that two choiristers who saw Pell nearly every week they sang (mentioned in the trial) could get him mixed up with anyone else when standing in front of him is laughable.

    But, but everyone knows that bishops are followed around constantly by pedophile doppelgangers just waiting for an opportunity to impersonate them, alone, in front of children. Everyone knows it! 🙄

  34. Soc, do you reckon GHD and or AECOM will cave in to pressure?

    I seem to recall a few years ago (or longer) GHD were struggling market share wise or financially…. do they need the mine design?

  35. a r @ #193 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 1:43 pm

    Socrates @ #188 Thursday, August 22nd, 2019 – 1:36 pm

    Pell’s defenders are getting desperate. Pell is a huge framed six-feet four man who was a football ruckman in his youth. The suggestion that two choiristers who saw Pell nearly every week they sang (mentioned in the trial) could get him mixed up with anyone else when standing in front of him is laughable.

    But, but everyone knows that bishops are followed around constantly by pedophile doppelgangers just waiting for an opportunity to impersonate them, alone, in front of children. Everyone knows it! 🙄

    Indeed. Next time you see a man hanging around a church dressed in Archbishop’s robes, put him under citizen’s arrest and call the police immediately!

  36. The Amazon has been burning for 3 weeks and nobody notices until a leader says something outrageous about it. 20% of the worlds air at threat from climate change and corrupt politics blatantly allowing illegal clearing, but it’s the moronic comment that gets media attention.

    Yeah. And that 70% ish of our air comes from Phytoplankton that are diminishing (probably due to climate change) faster than the Amazon is.

  37. nath says:
    Thursday, August 22, 2019 at 1:07 pm

    Barney in Makassar
    says:
    Nah, it’s guytaur logic!
    It has similarities with Asian logic….
    _________________
    Great story Barney. You’ve taken an odd property owner and projected her idiosyncrasies onto the people of an entire continent. I’d call it ‘Australian ignorance’ but in this case it’s just ‘Barney stupidity’.

    Showing your ignorance and lack of comprehension and understanding in a puerile attempt to score a point.

    What I light heartedly refer to as Asian logic is indeed a reflection of my lack of understanding of some of the different cultural norms that vary from place to place and when viewed from my own perspective often make little sense.

    As you wouldn’t appreciate, it’s a common part of living in any culturally different country and something you happily accept if you wish to continue living in these kinds of places.

    Thank you for projecting your vast wealth of knowledge in this area.

    You are pathetic!

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