Newspoll’s no-show this week suggests last fortnight’s poll may not have portended a return to the familiar schedule. Amid a general post-election psephological malaise, there is at least the following to relate:
• The great pollster failure was the subject of a two-parter by Bernard Keane in Crikey yesterday, one part examining the methodological nuts and bolts, the other the influence of polling on journalism and political culture.
• Richard Willingham of the ABC reports former Corangamite MP Sarah Henderson is having a harder-than-expected time securing Liberal preselection to replace Mitch Fifield in the Senate, despite backing from Scott Morrison, Josh Frydenberg and Michael Kroger. According to the report, some of Henderson’s backers concede that Greg Mirabella, former state party vice-president and the husband of Sophie Mirabella, may have the edge.
• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has invited submissions for its regular inquiry into the 2019 election, which will be accepted until Friday, September 2019. Queensland LNP Senator James McGrath continues to chair the committee, which consists of five Coalition, two Labor and one Greens member.
• Daniella White of the Canberra Times reports Labor is struggling to find candidates for next October’s Australian Capital Territory election, said by “some insiders” to reflect pessimism about the government’s chances of extending its reign to a sixth term.
• The Federation Press has published a second edition of the most heavily thumbed tome in my psephological library, Graeme Orr’s The Law of Politics: Election, Parties and Money in Australia. A good deal of water has passed under the bridge since the first edition in 2010, most notably in relation to Section 44, which now accounts for the better part of half a chapter.
I’m not sure Lizzie. Breaking eggs and small prey items by that method is common to a number of different foraging-predator bird species and video isn’t clear enough for me to make out. I’m not sure it has the beak or plumage of the seriema. Certainly looks different to the Secretary bird.
Vale Polly. 🙁
There’s one thing that Victorians and West Australians agree on – Graham “Polly” Farmer was one of the greatest footy rucks ever.
A proud Noongar man, he revolutionised football against a backdrop of racism & paved the way for the AFL greats we know today.
He’ll be sorely missed. pic.twitter.com/HqS8tTBYVP
— Dan Andrews (@DanielAndrewsMP) August 14, 2019
I would think the Queen would have far more influence in the U.K than Australia, keeping in mind that when parliament is sitting she has a one hour meeting each Tuesday with the PM and has the PM’s phone number.
Some lucky future historians will see how much influence she really has but if the Spider letters are anything to go by then the royals are probably more centralist than the tories and reactionary righties would like.
On Kerr, It is a pity those letters are not released as I suspect we would see Kerr was hounding the palace like a love sick boy seeking attention until the palace said okay.
From what we know of the Queen, she seems to be someone that is more a traditional conservative than a ranting reactionary.
A_E
On age, the Queen is within 5 years of becoming the longest monarch.
Mexicanbeemer
I seem to remember that in the 20C the Queen is said to have remarked wtte that she couldn’t understand why Australia was so slow in becoming a Republic (or it might have been Phillip, of course!).
lizzie says:
Mexicanbeemer
I seem to remember that in the 20C the Queen is said to have remarked wtte that she couldn’t understand why Australia was so slow in becoming a Republic (or it might have been Phillip, of course!).
————————————-
From memory I think it was the Queen that said it, and Charles might have said something similar.
I get the impression that their first priority is their little island and see the commonwealth as a group of nations which now includes countries the U.K/England never ruled as more important than whose thrones they hold.
Queen Camilla.
No Swampy. I will not support a restoration of the Stuarts.
The real King of England is:
Simon Abney-Hastings, 15th Earl of Loudoun
A descendant of George Plantagenet, Duke of Clarence.
Mexicanbeemer
My impression is that the Queen is very proud of the growth and strength of the “Commonwealth of Nations” under her aegis.
I think its kind of cute he lives in the great city of Wang.
Jacobites, right or wrong?
I can see now why the PMO cropped the original photo. It shows him with that sociopathic gurning grin walking past the school children of Tuvalu protesting about the Climate Change waters lapping at their back doors, slowly swallowing their islands.
Not a good look when you put it in that context.
The Canberra Times article (above) speculating about the ACT election in October 2020 needs a bit of background.
The CT for a while now has run article after article critical of every small thing the ACT government allegedly does wrong. Unfortunately for the CT, its dead tree circulation is anaemic and it now imposes a limit of five free articles per month limit on its website under the new owner Australian Community Media. How long it continues to exist as a newspaper is a matter of speculation.
An alternative online (free) news source is RiotACT https://the-riotact.com which nowadays employs a number of journalists, presumably on a freelance basis. The quality of articles is generally good and more balanced than the CT, although some readers’ comments are “interesting”.
It might be challenge for Labor to win a sixth term next year but as usual the Liberals continue to be underwhelming. Aside from some issues at the Canberra Hospital (what State doesn’t have a problem with hospitals?) they keep raising matters of limited concern to voters. The Liberals continue to have a toxic hard right culture and being associated with Zed Seselja is no benefit to them. They now have credibility gap by promising no rate rises for four years while maintaining all government services at the same level (rates have been rising for some years as the ACT transitions from reliance on stamp duty as a major source of revenue).
The Liberals leader recently did a major backflip after heavily opposing the first stage of light rail at the 2016 election by promising to build stage two cheaper and faster than the government (sounds like the NBN!). Stage one has came in under budget and passenger number have exceed forecasts. [Here I must acknowledge that Boerwar has expressed quite some opposition to light rail.]
Who will win the 2020 election is anybody’s guess at present. However the present government presents as a competent administration and is not averse to stoking unease about what the Morrison government might do to Canberra and linking the local Liberals to this.
Another Morrison appointment who doesn’t know what he’s talking about. How good is Morrison at concealing the truth!
Paddy Manning nails the Climate Change Denialism/Coal Industry Boosterism at the heart of the Morrison government:
https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2019/14/2019/1565751010/red-line-coal
Tristo says:
Wednesday, August 14, 2019 at 3:49 pm
@Jolyon Wagg
The Republican movement should have put into their model, that a President must be elected or dismissed by a minimum two-thirds vote of both Houses of Parliament.
A 2/3 majority in both Houses is considerably more stringent than now applies to the G-G, who can be appointed or dismissed at will by the person who has the confidence of the House. Such a person may not necessarily even have a majority in the House.
The choice is really simple: If the Head of State is directly elected, they could have no powers in relation to the Legislature; if they’re appointed by the Legislature and retain the powers (the formal and the reserve powers) now vested in the G-G, they must be able to be dismissed as easily as the PM can be dismissed.
It’s extremely unlikely that voters will ever agree to delegating their elective rights to the Parliament, which means the Head-0f-State would have to be directly elected. A directly-elected Head-of-State would have to be deprived all powers, both within the Parliament and as an Executive. This would mean the Constitution would have to be re-written. Alternatively, an elected Head-of-State would become superior in every respect to the legislature. This would be a very radical departure and would be opposed by the legislature.
The chances of adopting a Constitutional form that is republican in both style and substance is almost nil.
The most valuable constitutional change would be the addition of a Bill of Rights. We should create constitutional rights to decent employment, housing, health care, education, freedom of speech, freedom of religion etc.
Nicholas @ #165 Wednesday, August 14th, 2019 – 6:48 pm
Don’t forget privacy, due process, assembly, and association.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/08/14/various-stuff-thats-happening/comment-page-5/#comment-3234616
The Governor-General cannot actually be dismissed by the PM. The PM can only advise the Queen to dismiss the Governor-General. As proven by Kerr, the PM can be sacked by the Governor-General before the PM can advise the Queen of anything.
Removing the power of the unelected Queen and Governor-General by transferring the executive and Legislative functions of the Queen and Governor-General to the House of Reps (similar to the system in the ACT). This would create a monarchy in name only (similar to Sweden and Japan), unless the monarchy was officially scrapped as well.
The current debate is being weighted down by the presidentialists, weighing down the removal of unelected political power with complicated debates about how to choose a president and their powers and formal abolition of the monarchy.
Sadly it’s already raining heavily at Lord’s. The forecast is pretty grim until about mid-afternoon, so already there might be some thoughts about tinkering with selection for a four-day Test.
A little while ago Entsch was claiming that the biggest threat to the GBR was plastic floating down from Asia.
Then Morrison announces a very small sum ($20m?) to somehow stop Australia’s plastic recycling items going to Asia.
There seems to be a connection here. So for only $20m, the Morrison government will save the GBR???
How f*cking ungood is that.
I wonder what happened to the $500m handed to the Great Barrier Reef Foundation?
Jackol:
Should they be absentees? (Possibly that’s a merit) Or should we have our own Kings? Resident here. I’d back King Harry, particularly since it emerged that it would infuriate Nigel Farage
mikehilliard @ #224 Wednesday, August 14th, 2019 – 7:00 pm
Administration fees.
Yes absolutely. Discussing a list of economic, social, civil and political rights, conducting extensive community dialogue events all over the country over a period of a couple of years, and coming up with a Bill of Rights to put to the people would be worth doing. What concerns me about the Head of State issue is the poor pay-off for such a big investment of political capital. It doesn’t matter very much if our nominal Head of State is an English monarch or an Australian jobs-for-the-boys hack or an Australian celebrity.
It’s keeping their very colourful website alive at least. But it obviously wasn’t enough. Every page on the website has a big red “DONATE NOW” button.
Tristo says:
Wednesday, August 14, 2019 at 3:49 pm
@Jolyon Wagg
The Republican movement should have put into their model, that a President must be elected or dismissed by a minimum two-thirds vote of both Houses of Parliament.
——————
From memory that was my main issue and eventual reason for voting no because I felt there needed to be a mechanism such as a two-thirds vote of both Houses of Parliament to force either a new election or for any constitutional issues to be issued to the H.C for their determination as a means of breaking any deadlock between the PM and President.
C
The real costs of the Light Rail will probably settle the next ACT election.
That, and being totally screwed on rates to pay for it while developers made marvellous windfall gains.
I entertained you all with the thrilling tale of my travails with the NSW Department of Education.
It turns out that, when I had to re register, because I had been registered before, the system created two zoomsters. This was further complicated by the fact that each person registered has two numbers with the Department.
My original problem, in 2017, was caused by this. I have an email from then saying that, having removed the extraneous number, it’s all been sorted and I’m cleared to teach. Which is what I thought was the end of the problem.
But – aha! – that only removed one of the superfluous numbers, and for some reason having the extra number (I wait with interest for a letter from the Minister explaining this…) meant that my registration wasn’t recognised.
It’s all sorted now BUT
….from the day it was sorted, I have had work EVERY DAY.
So I take it that, had it been sorted two years ago, I would have had a steady stream of work in NSW.
I think I need a good lawyer!
From memory that was my main issue and eventual reason for voting no because I felt there needed to be a mechanism such as a two-thirds vote of both Houses of Parliament to force either a new election or for any constitutional issues to be issued to the H.C for their determination as a means of breaking any deadlock between the PM and President.
Blah… blah… blah… you got gamed by Howard, 20 years ago, and now there’s bugger-all chance of getting anything related to an Australian republic even considered seriously for at least another generation.
I hope you’re happy in your counting of angels gathered for a debate to be conducted on the head of a pin.
Brilliant.
The current system is republican in nature and monarchist in form. The people elect a college that selects one of its own to temporarily exercise the powers of the monarch. That delegate can be removed without notice. This is as it should be. They exercise very great power but have no tenure. I like that. If the holder of great power also has a firm tenure they will become despotic. The problem with monarchs is the drift to absolutism, to tyranny, to the repression of opposition. Our form is not so easily amenable to tyranny even though it has the appearance of a monarchic system.
The substance is democratic, though the Senate has too much power and the House too little.
The real problem in the constitution is the excessive power of the Senate, which may send the House to an election without itself also going to an election. The Senate should not be able to reject or withhold supply without facing a whole dissolution. As well, the Senate is a “continuing” chamber elected on rotation. This gives it a reactionary character. We should consider abolishing the Senate.
BB
Thanks but you can take a big breathe because I didn’t get gamed by Howard, I actually read all the material and couldn’t get passed how they were to deal with a deadlock between the Parliament and the President.
Making this worst, then head of the Republicans Malcolm Turnbull could not explain why there was no attention paid to it during the creation of the republican model.
Knowing that the first constitution was rejected forcing the pro-federation crowd to work through various issues that historians and constitutional lawyers say actually improved the constitution then I fully expected the same effort from the Australian Republican Movement.
Its not my problem if they have failed in fixing what I think can be solved fairly easily by introducing a way to force issues to the HC or to an election.
Bucephalus:
[‘I don’t care who the Monarch is as long as they continue to do their job the same way as the previous Monarchs have.’]
If the POW does accede to the throne, before Camilla succeeds in knocking him out with a vodka-induced ashtray, he deserves a go, based solely on his green credentials. But overall, the monarchy’s a self-serving bunch of nincompoops. You display, for a monarchist, an almost appalling lack of British monarchial history. “The Firm” has learned a lot since 1649: adaption.
mex….the problem with politicians is not appointing them. It is dismissing them. It should not be easier to dismiss a PM than to dismiss a Head of State. If a Head-of-State has a superior tenure than the PM then inevitably the H-o-S will make an alliance with the opponents of the PM, as Kerr did.
The H-o-S has to be able to be sacked without cause, without notice, without recourse….just as applies to the PM.
Briefly
I agree there needs to be a process or you run the risk of creating an absolute ruler that can’t be removed. From memory the provision I had issue with was s58 or s54 or something similar.
C@tmomma @ #193 Wednesday, August 14th, 2019 – 5:00 pm
Rubbish He’s just evidence of what absolute f**kwits the rest of them are.
a r @ #226 Wednesday, August 14th, 2019 – 7:08 pm
It’s okay, Labor’s on it like a dog with a b…..oh, wait….
……and the very last place that disputes between the legislature and the executive should be resolved should be the High Court. This could only damage the Court…
The Crown – and therefore the Parliament of which it is an intimate part – was very badly damaged when Kerr involved himself in the dispute between the Senate and the House. The dispute-resolution mechanism there was for the House to be dismissed by the Crown. This was totally unsatisfactory. The Senate should have been the chamber that faced the people, not the House. The Crown took sides. It should never have had to do so. It’s either outside politics or not. Impartiality goes beyond pretence.
The problem is the excessive powers of the Senate. However, as long as the Lib-Libs, their clones, allies, surrogates, substitutes, ensigns, mannequins and shotguns have the numbers in the Senate, this will not likely be changed.
briefly @ #233 Wednesday, August 14th, 2019 – 7:37 pm
Abolish the only (roughly) proportionally representative chamber of government? No thanks.
‘Labor has seized on the findings of an Infrastructure Australia audit, saying the Coalition has failed to deliver on its promise of a faster and cheaper NBN.’
Now, for crisakes Labor don’t fuck it up.
Go hard.
Don’t give up.
You have everything to gain.
This opportunity has been coming since Abbott and Turnbull stuffed the project.
Now stand up for yourselves or go home.
Bushfire Bill @ #232 Wednesday, August 14th, 2019 – 7:30 pm
To think a majority of the electorate is going to vote for a proposal that doesn’t give them a direct vote in who will be the head of state is utterly delusional.
Mavis Davis (AD)
mundo:
[‘It’s okay, Labor’s on it like a dog with a b…..oh, wait….’]
I understand your concern, but it might be prudent to until wait until Albanese removes his training wheels.
Mavis Davis (AD)
mundo:
[‘It’s okay, Labor’s on it like a dog with a b…..oh, wait….’]
I understand your concern, but it might be prudent to wait until Albanese removes his training wheels.
Tristo – watch out for the Black Helicopters- you’re on the list.
Police State – oh FFS.
a r says:
Wednesday, August 14, 2019 at 7:54 pm
briefly @ #233 Wednesday, August 14th, 2019 – 7:37 pm
We should consider abolishing the Senate.
Abolish the only (roughly) proportionally representative chamber of government? No thanks.
The Senate is a crooked chamber elected on a reactionary basis, exercising obstructionist powers in relation to the democratically apportioned House; powers that place the House in an inferior position with respect to tenure. But of course, as long as the Lib-Libs, their clones, allies, lookalikes, siblings, mannequins, substitutes, puppets, echoes, kinfolk and shotguns have the numbers in the Senate, reform will never happen.
The Senate is unabolishable because the Constitution grants each state`s voters veto over reducing their states proportionate representation in each chamber. So even if every voter on the mainland voted to abolish the Senate, the Tasmanians could and would still block it. The Senate as a house of review of the government is so well established and popular that a referendum to abolish it probably would not pass in any state, as (at the very least) minor parties and independents from across the political spectrum would campaign against it.
Tom the first and best says:
Wednesday, August 14, 2019 at 8:03 pm
The Senate is unabolishable
Then its powers should be clipped.
Mexicanbeemer
Perfection is the enemy of change.
You didn’t get a republic; you haven’t got a republic and you won’t get a republic.