Newspoll’s no-show this week suggests last fortnight’s poll may not have portended a return to the familiar schedule. Amid a general post-election psephological malaise, there is at least the following to relate:
• The great pollster failure was the subject of a two-parter by Bernard Keane in Crikey yesterday, one part examining the methodological nuts and bolts, the other the influence of polling on journalism and political culture.
• Richard Willingham of the ABC reports former Corangamite MP Sarah Henderson is having a harder-than-expected time securing Liberal preselection to replace Mitch Fifield in the Senate, despite backing from Scott Morrison, Josh Frydenberg and Michael Kroger. According to the report, some of Henderson’s backers concede that Greg Mirabella, former state party vice-president and the husband of Sophie Mirabella, may have the edge.
• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has invited submissions for its regular inquiry into the 2019 election, which will be accepted until Friday, September 2019. Queensland LNP Senator James McGrath continues to chair the committee, which consists of five Coalition, two Labor and one Greens member.
• Daniella White of the Canberra Times reports Labor is struggling to find candidates for next October’s Australian Capital Territory election, said by “some insiders” to reflect pessimism about the government’s chances of extending its reign to a sixth term.
• The Federation Press has published a second edition of the most heavily thumbed tome in my psephological library, Graeme Orr’s The Law of Politics: Election, Parties and Money in Australia. A good deal of water has passed under the bridge since the first edition in 2010, most notably in relation to Section 44, which now accounts for the better part of half a chapter.
You’ve misread Quiggan if you think he was advocating for disenfranchising the over-60s.
His point is about the weakness of the argument against extending the franchise to 16 and 17 year olds, not the saying that the same argument should be used against the over 60s.
“Steve Smith is going to be replaced on a like for like basis by Mitch Marsh.”
We must really need that fifth bowler.
I was going to ask Dio tonight if he had a view on the returning to bat of Smith last night. He did not look right and could have been further hurt. I thought the booing was very poor, but so was Australia’s medical management of Smith.
No Newspoll this week either?
David Briggs probably heard the nation lolling at the last one and retreated back into his cave.
I suspect this is the kind of statement to which Betteridge’s Law applies.
But but but…. he is top 5 batting averages in this years 2nd div county cricket. Not quite as good as Ryan Higgins (never heard of him? There is a good reason for that) but much higher than other nobodies….. like Bancroft.
Socrates:
I agree, we need to urgently transition our economy away from coal.
I’ve often wondered how a Hawke/Keating govt would respond to the challenges of today.
Possibly some technical difficulty with herding when you appear to be in a herd of one.
caf
says:
Sunday, August 18, 2019 at 9:35 pm
Is Shorten planning an ambush for Albo at the next annual conference using the CFMMEU as his weapon of choice?
I suspect this is the kind of statement to which Betteridge’s Law applies
________________________
What about the leaking? when can we expect some more?
Supply does not create demand. The reverse applies. Demand stimulates supply. When demand for coal falls – as it must – Australian coal production will decline. Australia could shut its industry tomorrow and that would make no difference to demand and total consumption. Demand is the issue.
There is a lot of effort going into creating alternative energy systems – systems that are substitutes for carbon-rich fuels. The success of these substitutes will depress demand for carbon-rich fuels. This is already happening and it’s happening in Labor-administered jurisdictions.
The Lib-kin frame of reference to this issue is not helpful. It obscures what’s actually occurring and the real imperatives in the energy economy.
I think Labuscagne is playing for Smith. Smith didn’t get a head injury as such. It hit his neck, only because he wouldn’t wear the proper helmet, which shouldn’t be allowed to happen in professional sport. My guess is he’s got severe bruising into his trapezius muscle and can barely move his neck.
The concussion substitute rules are:
‘The replacements can bat and bowl in place of a player with concussion or suspected concussion; match officials have to determine that the new player is a “like for like” replacement.’
Cricket Australia have become the first team to apply to the ICC for a concussion substitute under the new protocols which came into action on August 1 with Marnus Labuschagne confirmed as Smith’s replacement.
nath:
I reckon, despite whatever other flaws he may have, Bill understands the rules of the piñata – two swings then you pass the stick to the next kid.
From CA
“Steve has been closely monitored by medical staff overnight and this morning reported that after sleeping well, he woke with ‘a bit of a headache and a feeling of grogginess.'” a Cricket Australia statement said
“As part of the Cricket Australia concussion protocol, repeat concussion testing of Steve Smith was also performed this morning and demonstrated some deterioration from his testing which is consistent with the emergence of the symptoms he was reporting.
“On that basis Steve has been withdrawn from the match by team doctor Richard Saw and the Australia team will lodge an application for a concussion substitute with the ICC match referee in line with the ICC protocol.
“Cricket Australia statistics show that 30 percent of concussions in Australian cricket are delayed. It is not uncommon for players to pass their tests and feel well on the day of an injury and then display symptoms 24 – 48 hours later.
Dio
Thanks. So he wasn’t concussed but psychologically shaken?
caf
says:
Sunday, August 18, 2019 at 9:45 pm
nath:
I reckon, despite whatever other flaws he may have, Bill understands the rules of the piñata – two swings then you pass the stick to the next kid.
_______________________________
I wouldn’t think so. I think he’s seeing 2 close results and if Albo falls over, or is pushed a little into falling over, the ‘times will suit him’ on another go round. Of course he had to resign after the election, but derailing Albo will be his first challenge. the leak a few weeks ago that had Albo, Wong and Burke were against a Federal Integrity watchdog was pure Shorten. Also telling that Wong and Burke backed Albo against whatever surrogate Shorten was attempting to get up.
This is not the case. Both supply and demand have some elasticity. It is the combination of both supply and demand that drives consumption. If Australia shut its [coal] industry tomorrow, the market-clearing price would rise and consumption would be reduced (but not by the totality of Australia’s foregone production; some of the slack would be taken up by increased production elsewhere, and some by reduced consumption). Similarly, if some high-paying coal consumer stopped consumption tomorrow, the market-clearing price would fall and some of the slack would be taken up by increased consumption elsewhere (by some lower-paying consumer) rather than all by reduced production.
Barney thinks he the only person who’s ever played cricket.
That is why bouncers are bowled.
A short ball, whether mixed up with line-and-length and/or full tosses (or mullygrubbers, for that matter), is not necesssarily a bouncer. A bowler can still bowl a short, fast ball, without trying to take the batsman’s head off (or more accurately, cause fatal vertebral artery dissection).
Saying that it’s necessary for the game to include potentially lethal (and certainly physically intimidatory) bouncers, as a counter to longer length balls, is complete horseshit.
I can believe there are cricket tragics. What I can’t believe is the blood lust they so frequently display. The threat of violent death is their bread and butter.
THEIR bread and butter, THEIR cheap thrill… and fuck the poor sod who has to defend his life from 150 grams of unflinching cricket ball targeted at his head, travelling at an unavoidable 150 kilometres per hour.
Steve Smith could have been killed, as Phillip Hughes was killed, outright, instantly, right there in front of the cheering crowd, full of testosterone and second-hand ooh-aahs.
Luckily, Smith has been able to bow out of the current game. I suppose Barney would call him a wimp. Can’t take it. What a wuzz! Is Smith, in fact, badly injured? Who cares! Cricket will live on!
The difference between Smith’s fate and Hughes’ was probably one single centimetre. And still the circus crowd bays for blood and they write how vital the threat of instant death is to The Game.
Shame on you all.
I’m surprised Langer didn’t push for Shaun Marsh as a ‘like for like’ replacement of Smith.
caf
says:
Sunday, August 18, 2019 at 9:45 pm
nath:
I reckon, despite whatever other flaws he may have, Bill understands the rules of the piñata – two swings then you pass the stick to the next kid.
_________________________
Also, this kind of thinking is not how you become PM. I’m not sure any real Prime Ministerial aspirant would ever willingly hand over the stick when there’s the chance of candy.
Diogenes @ #1659 Sunday, August 18th, 2019 – 9:43 pm
So why is he feeling groggy?
#Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 51 (-2) ALP 49 (+2) #auspol
#Newspoll Morrison: Approve 48 (-3) Disapprove 42 (+6) #auspol
#Newspoll Albanese: Approve 41 (+2) Disapprove 34 (-2) #auspol
William
Thanks for the John Quiggin article. I think he has a point. As a member of the age group to which he refers, my experience is that a majority of friends/acquaintances of my age group vote as he suggests.
Only relatively few of my friends/acquaintances are even interested in discussions about progressive policies; the rest quickly shut down conversation by statements such as “how could you vote for someone who is going to steal franking credits” (last election) and resist discussions eg about the nature of franking credits. They proudly proclaim the basis of their voting decisions in terms of personal rather than societal considerations. Most of them are well off to very well off.
C@t
I am unsure why you quote Whitlam and tertiary education reforms of the early 1970s to argue with Quiggin’s figures. The national Yr 12 retention rate in 1981 was 35%, rising to 69% in 1989.
The 65% of the 1966 crop who did not complete secondary education would now be only 54 years old, well below your claim that Quiggin’s age figure should properly be around 70. Anyway, Quiggin speaks of average ages, which of course suggests that there are numerous people >60 yrs to whom he is not referring.
Polls. Meh.
He’s feeling groggy because hecwas hit in a critical part of his anatomy by a 150 gram ball travelling at 150 kph, purposely directed to do or threaten that exact damage.
If Australia shut its [coal] industry tomorrow, the market-clearing price would rise and consumption would be reduced (but not by the totality of Australia’s foregone production; some of the slack would be taken up by increased production elsewhere, and some by reduced consumption).
The quality of the product produced by using other sources of Coking Coal would also be a consequence. Maybe more buildings falling down. That’s why I think that Australia needs to be sophisticated in their response to the problem with Coal. Therefore, I believe we need to keep exporting our superior quality Coking Coal but nix the Thermal Coal exports-gradually, but not too gradually, so that we and the rest of the world have a chance to get up to speed with replacements for our Energy-generating assets.
Not sure what to say about politics today, so perhaps I take refuge in remembering the politics of the 60s and 70s, and the music, and hoping there are small nuggets of wisdom in that music.
Here is some Johnny Cash – someone who I once wrote off as being Country and Western, and therefore being beneath contempt.
I am not discovering what an interesting and complex musician and composer Cash was, and really enjoying his music. Also, cannot wait to travel the Appalachian trail!
So, here is some Cash:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t51MHUENlAQ
This may well be horseshit, but it is more interesting than the Pommy go slow…
The poll shows a two-point drop in the two-party-preferred vote for the Coalition since the electoral surge in July, which saw the government stretch its lead over Labor to 53-47.
At the time this was attributed largely to the government meeting its election pledge by getting its $158 billion income tax cuts through the parliament.
Since then popular support for the Coalition, according to the latest Newspoll, has dropped two points to 42 per cent, leaving it slightly ahead of the election result that delivered it victory on a primary vote of 41.4 per cent and a two-party-preferred vote of 51.5-48.5.
Labor’s primary vote jumped a point to 34 per cent in the latest survey.
However, this remains at historically low levels for the party and is only slightly above the election result of 33.3 per cent, which was the worst for Labor at an election in 85 years.
Popular support for One Nation also rose a point to 4 per cent compared with the last poll in July and is almost a full point ahead of the election result.
The biggest movement came from a fall in approval of Mr Morrison’s performance, with a six-point rise in the number of people dissatisfied to 42 per cent and a reduction in net satisfaction rating of plus-15 to plus-six points. While his personal numbers are still stronger than before the election, the shift marked a nine-point turnaround in the Prime Minister’s net satisfaction ratings since the last poll conducted from July 25-28.
Labor leader Anthony Albanese improved his stocks, with a two-point rise in satisfaction ratings matched by a two-point fall in those dissatisfied, which produced a net satisfaction rating of plus seven. Mr Morrison, however, remained the preferred prime minister at 48 per cent compared with 30 per cent for Mr Albanese, who fell a point since the last survey.
Credibility can only be lost once and never recovered!
BB
I think deliveries above the shoulder should be no balls.
#Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 42 (-2) ALP 34 (+1) GRN 11 (0) ON 4 (+1) #auspol
I take back my earlier snark, and it’s a good early sign that Newspoll appears to be bouncing around more like an actual random-sampling poll should now.
Psyclaw @ #1673 Sunday, August 18th, 2019 – 10:01 pm
You might be a lawyer but you sure as hell ain’t a mathematician.
I completed high school in 1977. I am now 60. Therefore, this statement is nonsense:
The 65% of the 1966 crop who did not complete secondary education would now be only 54 years old
Even if you generously have them leaving high school at 15 in the same year I left 6th Form that would mean that they would be 57 0r 58 now. Depending on how old they were when they started school.
Steve Smith has been withdrawn from the test match and Marnus Labuschagne has been approved as Australia’s concussion substitute.
briefly @ #1659 Sunday, August 18th, 2019 – 9:40 pm
Nonsense. Cheap supply creates demand. This demand will continue as long as we are willing to sell our coal for a pittance, which of course we are.
Your arguments are just another way of saying “let’s just do nothing, and hope others will do the work for us” 🙁
Labor will never win an election while they have this attitude. Nor do they deserve to.
Ask, and I shall receive. 🙂
Peeps figuring out PM Flim Flam full of hot air. Plus he leads a very nasty bunch.
Diogenes,
BB
I think deliveries above the shoulder should be no balls.
No balls, with a 1-ball forfeit. That is, the bowling side doesn’t get to re-bowl the ball.
But, as you would know, dead is dead. A no-ball is a trivial price to pay for threatening a life.
Oh, and I mentioned Whitlam’s University Education changes because they were a game changer that gave poorer families the chance at last to plan for their children to go to university. Hawke and Keating improved on his work.
Briefly
“Supply does not create demand. The reverse applies. Demand stimulates supply. ”
You must know it is not that simple. Economics books are full of counter examples to that ideal situation, which only applies to a competitive, well informed and non-monopolistic market. In the real world suppliers do things to stimulate demand, block rival producers, and deceive consumer and regulators. In an era of corporations exerting great influence over government, inefficient industries can and do manipulate legislation and markets to stay in business beyond their use-by date and prevent rivals establishing. Think of Ruperts efforts with the Liberals to nobble the NBN and preserve Foxtel. Call that supply responding to demand?
Likewise with coal – our politics is so distorted and bought that we have fifty year old coal power stations well beyond their economic life, still running when cheaper wind power should have replaced them by now. We have monopolies created by states having sold off distribution networks under dubious terms. And both the distribution networks and coal plants are mostly foreign owned, so the profits of this policy failure-induced rip-off do not stay in the country.
If a few coal workers have to change jobs to stop this rort then so be it.
New thread.
Alternate steel-making processes using hydrogen rather than coke are also in development:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652618326301
The biggest movement came from a fall in approval of Mr Morrison’s performance, with a six-point rise in the number of people dissatisfied to 42 per cent and a reduction in net satisfaction rating of plus-15 to plus-six points. While his personal numbers are still stronger than before the election, the shift marked a nine-point turnaround in the Prime Minister’s net satisfaction ratings since the last poll conducted from July 25-28.
This figure could have been changed by raising Newstart. Simple. As. That. The electorate doesn’t care about a bloody Surplus any more!
Don’t agree with your web comments. Alan Jones is highly respected by a large audience and likes women and has been a good friend to many. Yes, he didnt care for what Malcolm Turnbull did to get rid of Abbott as PM, due to climate change issues. Yet just look to where the family has invested, renewables of course with all the government subsidies when $700,000 for each windmill does not solve the utility costs for manufacturers, small business and home owners,
least of all the cash strapped oldies failing to heat their homes. This is the reality of policies
impacting on many. Great for the Saturday paper and the Guardian to make fun of those trying
to help with Get Up! working behind the scenes to discredit those impacted.
“Not sure what to say about politics today, “
The USA, the UK and Australia are ruled by clowns, liars and scoundrels…
And here is a song of hope, for me. another Pete Seeger, but I think the original was Woodie Guthrie?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HE4H0k8TDgw
@BB, earlier this afternoon:
“In accusing me of misquoting him Andrew Earlwood has accused me of wanting to limit F1 cars to 60kph, get rid of bowlers altogether, ban guitars (?), and turn cricket into a game played by robots (or was it Barney who reckons I said that last one?).
I didn’t say any of the above, of course. Andrew and Barney are making it up.
Andrew also pointed out that Smith only got hit because he played a “poor shot” ( which would have been a comfort to all the tail-enders who have bouncers bowled at them). This seems to be a “blame the victim” argument, to me.
Fast bowling is fine, and part of cricket. Most fast balls bowled, probably 80-90%, are not bouncers anyway. All I’m suggesting is that this percentage should be increased to 100%, before someone else gets killed trying to please spectators who get their rocks off watching life-and-safety-threatening behaviour in the workplace. Mustn’t upset the fans.
Alternatively, we could perhaps make it permissable for batsmen to sue for damages bowlers who deliberately hurt them. Let’s see how many bowlers persist in bowling deliberately at batsmens’ heads in order to cause fear of grevious bodily harm. And any that still do bowl bouncers could always use the, “Piss poor shot” explanation as a legal excuse. Let’s try it out in court!
Why not take this to a wider application? The casual king-hitter in Kings Cross could always say it wasn’t his fault the victim tripped and hit his head after being coward-punched. Or the mass murderer with an ARM-15 could argue that his victims “ducked poorly”.
Can anyone explain why bouncers are bowled (apart from being used as a physical threat, that is).”
_________________________________
Greeting from Albury, where I’ve just checking into my hotel after Being flight delayed by a couple of hours.
I’m not sure how I’ve actually accused you of misquoting me, but you seem to have missed my point altogether: confusing my passing ridicule for main Argument. Once again, I repeat: Smith bears some responsibility for refusing the neck guard and the remedy is to make it compulsory. Moreover, the device can probably be improved, as can helmet design more generally: see below for my ruminations on that particular topic.
I did not, repeat, not say Andrew that Smith only got hit because he played a “poor shot”. I think you are confusing me with Barnie. He got hit because even the best there is can make a mistake. Especially against genuine express bowling on a two pace pitch.
Bouncers are bowled to unsettle the rhythm and confidence of batsmen. Even with appropriate and effective protective equipment it is counter intuitive to stay in line and keep your eye on the rising ball. It takes skill and courage to do that, and a good array of bouncers, Yorkers, balls short of a length, those fuller, seamers and swinging balls, variations in pace are all important weapons in a bowlers Arsenal in what has rapidly become a batsman’s game in the last few decades.
Moreover there is a world of difference between a blow from a cricket ball that may smart, even leave a bruise, and one that causes grevious harm or even death. The former is part and parcel of the game: the risks of the later can be dramatically reduced by protective equipment (and its not just the bouncer that is potentially dangerous. Sweeping, massive cracks in the pitch and most dangerous of all – in close fielding – all pose really risks).
Turning to the protective gear issue. Smith doesn’t like the feel on the neck guard. Probably because it comes straight down at the back of the helmet behind the ear guards, and would rub against the neck, depending on the angle. Michael Clarke had the same response, but when he saw Rogers get hit on the neck wearing one he immediately started wearing it. Rogers reckons that the guard saved him from potential serious injury.
That said, I reckon that cricket helmet design is antiquated and is sorely in need of an overhaul. A typical helmet weights around 800grams. Most of that weight is in the thick outer layer – which does nothing to absorb the shock of being hit with a cricket ball, but do make the helmet more durable (which is actually a false safety outcome, as all helmets should be immediately thrown out is they get any significant blow). Cricket helmets should be desesigned to have more shock absorbing form and only the very thinnest outer hard layer. This would be much safer and also would cut the overall weight (even with the metal face grill and ear guards) in half. Also better ventilation could be built in.
Moreover, the neck guard could be improved. Instead of a small clip on device that hangs vertically behind the ear guard I reckon an integrated one piece foam helmet with a rear angled flange that runs behind the head between ear guards would be more comfortable and safer. The helmet would probably end up resembling a Roman Legionary helmet from the 1st to 3rd century.
From previous thread – @BB, earlier this afternoon:
“In accusing me of misquoting him Andrew Earlwood has accused me of wanting to limit F1 cars to 60kph, get rid of bowlers altogether, ban guitars (?), and turn cricket into a game played by robots (or was it Barney who reckons I said that last one?).
I didn’t say any of the above, of course. Andrew and Barney are making it up.
Andrew also pointed out that Smith only got hit because he played a “poor shot” ( which would have been a comfort to all the tail-enders who have bouncers bowled at them). This seems to be a “blame the victim” argument, to me.
Fast bowling is fine, and part of cricket. Most fast balls bowled, probably 80-90%, are not bouncers anyway. All I’m suggesting is that this percentage should be increased to 100%, before someone else gets killed trying to please spectators who get their rocks off watching life-and-safety-threatening behaviour in the workplace. Mustn’t upset the fans.
Alternatively, we could perhaps make it permissable for batsmen to sue for damages bowlers who deliberately hurt them. Let’s see how many bowlers persist in bowling deliberately at batsmens’ heads in order to cause fear of grevious bodily harm. And any that still do bowl bouncers could always use the, “Piss poor shot” explanation as a legal excuse. Let’s try it out in court!
Why not take this to a wider application? The casual king-hitter in Kings Cross could always say it wasn’t his fault the victim tripped and hit his head after being coward-punched. Or the mass murderer with an ARM-15 could argue that his victims “ducked poorly”.
Can anyone explain why bouncers are bowled (apart from being used as a physical threat, that is).”
_________________________________
Greeting from Albury, where I’ve just checking into my hotel after Being flight delayed by a couple of hours.
I’m not sure how I’ve actually accused you of misquoting me, but you seem to have missed my point altogether: confusing my passing ridicule for main Argument. Once again, I repeat: Smith bears some responsibility for refusing the neck guard and the remedy is to make it compulsory. Moreover, the device can probably be improved, as can helmet design more generally: see below for my ruminations on that particular topic.
I did not, repeat, not say that Smith only got hit because he played a “poor shot”. I think you are confusing me with Barnie. He got hit because even the best there is can make a mistake. Especially against genuine express bowling on a two pace pitch.
Bouncers are bowled to unsettle the rhythm and confidence of batsmen. Even with appropriate and effective protective equipment it is counter intuitive to stay in line and keep your eye on the rising ball. It takes skill and courage to do that, and a good array of bouncers, Yorkers, balls short of a length, those fuller, seamers and swinging balls, variations in pace are all important weapons in a bowlers Arsenal in what has rapidly become a batsman’s game in the last few decades.
Moreover there is a world of difference between a blow from a cricket ball that may smart, even leave a bruise, and one that causes grevious harm or even death. The former is part and parcel of the game: the risks of the later can be dramatically reduced by protective equipment (and its not just the bouncer that is potentially dangerous. Sweeping, massive cracks in the pitch and most dangerous of all – in close fielding – all pose really risks).
Turning to the protective gear issue. Smith doesn’t like the feel on the neck guard. Probably because it comes straight down at the back of the helmet behind the ear guards, and would rub against the neck, depending on the angle. Michael Clarke had the same response, but when he saw Rogers get hit on the neck wearing one he immediately started wearing it. Rogers reckons that the guard saved him from potential serious injury.
That said, I reckon that cricket helmet design is antiquated and is sorely in need of an overhaul. A typical helmet weights around 800grams. Most of that weight is in the thick outer layer – which does nothing to absorb the shock of being hit with a cricket ball, but do make the helmet more durable (which is actually a false safety outcome, as all helmets should be immediately thrown out is they get any significant blow). Cricket helmets should be redesigned to have more shock absorbing form and only the very thinnest outer hard layer. This would be much safer and also would cut the overall weight (even with the metal face grill and ear guards) in half. Also better ventilation could be built in.
Moreover, the neck guard could be improved. Instead of a small clip on device that hangs vertically behind the ear guard I reckon an integrated one piece foam helmet with a rear angled flange that runs behind the head between ear guards would be more comfortable and safer. The helmet would probably end up resembling a Roman Legionary helmet from the 1st to 3rd century.”
C@t
It would be wise when accusing someone else of port arithmetic to get your own algorisms correct.
The 65% of 15 year old students who left school in Yr 10 in 1981 were born in 1966. People born in 1966 turn 53 this year.
mundo showing his true colours as a supporter of The Greens and just another troll, I see.