Newspoll’s no-show this week suggests last fortnight’s poll may not have portended a return to the familiar schedule. Amid a general post-election psephological malaise, there is at least the following to relate:
• The great pollster failure was the subject of a two-parter by Bernard Keane in Crikey yesterday, one part examining the methodological nuts and bolts, the other the influence of polling on journalism and political culture.
• Richard Willingham of the ABC reports former Corangamite MP Sarah Henderson is having a harder-than-expected time securing Liberal preselection to replace Mitch Fifield in the Senate, despite backing from Scott Morrison, Josh Frydenberg and Michael Kroger. According to the report, some of Henderson’s backers concede that Greg Mirabella, former state party vice-president and the husband of Sophie Mirabella, may have the edge.
• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has invited submissions for its regular inquiry into the 2019 election, which will be accepted until Friday, September 2019. Queensland LNP Senator James McGrath continues to chair the committee, which consists of five Coalition, two Labor and one Greens member.
• Daniella White of the Canberra Times reports Labor is struggling to find candidates for next October’s Australian Capital Territory election, said by “some insiders” to reflect pessimism about the government’s chances of extending its reign to a sixth term.
• The Federation Press has published a second edition of the most heavily thumbed tome in my psephological library, Graeme Orr’s The Law of Politics: Election, Parties and Money in Australia. A good deal of water has passed under the bridge since the first edition in 2010, most notably in relation to Section 44, which now accounts for the better part of half a chapter.
Being only 59, I consider myself a moral and political blank canvas.
Go ahead, Old Farts, convince me.
C@t:
People aged 25-37 are better educated than older generations.
https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/millennial-life-how-young-adulthood-today-compares-with-prior-generations/psdt_02-14-19_generations-00-00/
Not always.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jan/10/older-people-more-likely-to-share-fake-news-on-facebook
This suggests that many older people may lack the skills to interrogate the veracity of news and information they are reading.
Peg:
Please stop the cut & pasting. What the viewer needs to know is your in-depth analysis.
C@tmomma @ #1578 Sunday, August 18th, 2019 – 4:03 pm
I think Mr Quiggin has it about right. I’m only 57 and I know that most of the people my age left school at 15. That’s mainly because there were plenty of jobs available back then for young people, particularly apprenticeships.
CNN has an interesting article about the motives of many Hong Kong protesters. It is to do with the massive chasm between the living conditions of rich and poor, and the failure of the government to address the issue.
This is ultimately a legacy of British colonial rule and the ultra “free market” approach of over a century.
William Bowe says:
Sunday, August 18, 2019 at 5:47 pm
John Quiggin:
Looking at the array of ignorant and vindictive old men attacking Greta Thunberg and other young climate activists, the case for lowering the voting age is just about unanswerable. Anything that could be urged in justification of stopping 16 year olds, as a group, from voting, is equally applicable to those over 60 (a group to which I belong). Over 60 voters are, on average, poorly educated (the school leaving age in Australia was 15 when they went through and I assume similar in most places), and more likely to hold a wide range of false beliefs (notably in relation to climate change).
Worse, as voters the over 60s have ceased to act, if they ever did, as wise elders seeking the best for the future. Rather (on average) they vote in a frivolous and irresponsible way, forming the support base for loudmouthed bigots and clowns like Trump, Johnson and Hanson (the last of whom, unsurprisingly, supports an increase in the voting age). Substantively, they respond to unrealistic appeals to nostalgia, wanting to Make America Great Again, and restore the glories of the British Empire, while dismissing concerns about the future. If my age cohort were to be assessed on the criteria applied to 16 year olds, we would be disenfranchised en masse.
He’s talked me into it. I will give up voting on the basis that I’m too old. The future belongs to the young.
Confessions:
[‘This suggests that many older people may lack the skills to interrogate the veracity of news and information they are reading.’]
Maybe. I really don’t know. I will say, however, that the young seem to care more for material things than did the old. As a young man, for instance, we had a back-yard dunny – I could go on., but won’t bore you, with Redback.
Mark David is SO good!
[‘He’s talked me into it. I will give up voting on the basis that I’m too old. The future belongs to the young.’]
You seem to be easily pleased, briefly. And, please stop being so old.
Bushfire Bill @ #1601 Sunday, August 18th, 2019 – 6:57 pm
I think I can see into the heart of this contretemps. Old Farts come in many different varieties. Those of the socialist/communist variety between the ages of 80 and 81 seem to be forward looking and super empathic, wishing only the best for their fellow citizens.
Those between the ages of 57 and 80 on the other hand are likely to filled with rage and destructive thoughts; longing for the the glories of the past and offering curses and imprecations on the head of those with whom they disagree (everybody).
Then there the bastards
Young bastards who are likely to follow in the footsteps of there forebears and grown into old bastards.
Middle aged bastards who will mostly follow the asshole variety of bastardry, yea, even unto their death attempting to pass through the legendary eye of the needle.
Then there is the hope of the world young people who will be smitten with the curse of empathy and change the world.
Penny Wong is right, of course. Australian seaborne thermal coal contributes about 3% to global coal consumption, reflecting the fact that most coal is consumed near to its place of extraction. The problem for the coal sector in Australia is that demand is falling in the domestic market and will decline in the export sector too.
This prospect faces the entire fossil fuel extraction, transport and combustion chain. This chain faces obsolescence. We not only have to prepare for its closure, but also its replacement. This is going to be hard to do in an economy that will be deeply disrupted by the full impacts of climate change. We are nowhere near being well-prepared for this.
In Australia, we have continued to invest in sectors that face inevitable and very rapid decline, likely t the point of liquidation. The resource-intense states are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of continuing mal-investment. We will need a lot more than denialism to get us through.
Bushfire Bill:
[‘Being only 59, I consider myself a moral and political blank canvas.’]
Judging from your posts, I thought that you’re older than me – around thirty.
Coal contributes a minority share of Australian Scope 1,2 and 3 emissions. Emissions from gas and liquid fuels exceed those from coal.
But this will not stop the Lib-kin from seeking to politically exploit coal mining and coal miners, just as Thatcher did a generation ago. Labor has to defend coal miners just as UK Labour sought to defend miners against Thatcher.
The Lib-kin and Thatcher are cut from the same cloth.
Speaking of banning stupid old farts from voting, could it be made retrospective in the UK?
At my age a cheque for a billion dollars payable in 25 years’ time and which isn’t inheritable would be pretty useless.
Apropos about nothing much..
https://mobile.twitter.com/buitengebieden_/status/1163013061449568258/video/1
“Apropos about nothing much..”
🙂
Steve777:
[At my age a cheque for a billion dollars payable in 25 years’ time and which isn’t inheritable would be pretty useless.]
Please check dem damn nursing homes; they’ll do you right?
Peg:
Please stop the cut & pasting. What the viewer needs to know is your in-depth analysis.
He/she/it has none, other than “Labor bad.”
And that’s not really all that “in depth.”
Good god!
briefly @ #1614 Sunday, August 18th, 2019 – 7:44 pm
Coal is the most polluting of all the fossil fuels, and needs to be phased out aggresively, starting immediately. Fracking for gas is almost as bad, but conventional gas can and should be used as a replacement for coal until all fossil fuels used for electricity generation can be phased out altogether, worldwide.
I understand Labor’s dilemma on this issue, but pretending we can continue to export thermal coal at any level – or burn it ourselves – represents a failure to accept the magnitude of the problem we face.
Pretending that we can continue to burn coal for decades is just plain ridiculous.
sprocket_ :
[‘Apropos about nothing much..’]
Agree!
PO….of course coal should be phased out. This is certainly occurring in Australia. It’s about to start occurring in the largest markets for Australia seaborne coal too. This is taking place regardless of the efforts of the coal industry.
It’s well worth remembering that nearly all of Australia’s export industries were created by demand from abroad. They did not originate from our inspiration. They were brought into being and continue to exist because of foreign demand. When that demand declines our export industries will surely follow. Consider the example of wool. The industry flourished to serve textile industries in other countries. It declined as these industries shifted their production to other fibres. We like to think that we created our mining industries. We did not. We simply allowed them to be built to satisfy foreign demand. We are a quarry. The quarry will be shut down when their extracts are no longer in use. The day for coal is not far off.
The cost to the atmosphere is too great and emissions will be repressed. This is absolutely inevitable. We are only a few years away from this point, no matter that we all might believe it to be otherwise. The penalty for dumping into the atmosphere is not transparently priced into the world economy. But there is a price. It will soon have to be borne by the dumpers….and when the dumpers are forced to pay demand for carbon-rich fuels will collapse. This is unavoidable now.
Evening all. Stupid rain at the cricket!
Regardless of the politics, Quiggin is correct on the statistics. I am also in my fifties and when I left school only about 40% of the age cohort completed high school to grade 12. It only went past 50% in the 1980s when Hawke and Keating (who else?) offered families incentives to get kids to stay in school to complete high school. And less than 10% got to university in the Whitlam era. In an age when medicine means most live to 80+ not all the old are wise.
Of course, the extractors would like all the non-extractors to pay them to stop extracting. Such demands will surely be made. But they will be refused. The extractors will shift their production from carbon-rich to carbon-light energy. This will happen very quickly. Once one makes the shift the others will follow in a renewables-plunge.
briefly @ #1614 Sunday, August 18th, 2019 – 7:44 pm
Don’t care. Coal is a fossil fuel and like all other fossil fuels its use as an energy source must stop, on as close to an immediate basis as possible.
That statement is meaningless without a quantifier. Are you saying that gas and oil pollute more per kWh of energy generated? Per mole of fuel burned? Per unit of volume consumed? What?
Though yes, gas and oil fired generation also needs to stop, just as urgently as coal-fired generation.
That people have jobs in these sectors is neither here nor there. When we figured out that asbestos kills you, did we all say “but people have jobs mining and producing asbestos products, so we just have to keep using it”? No, because that would have been idiotic.
People with jobs in deprecated industries need to move to other industries. They should have access to help in doing so, absolutely. But the ones who insist upon living in denial, deliberately clinging to a dead industry, and having a whinge about their predicament aren’t entitled to any sympathy. Let alone the defense of an entire major political party.
sprocket
A “no deal” brexit has been Boris’ plan from the start. It suits his finance buddies in the City. They want to escape EU financial oversight. That is why he has torpedoed every offer from the EU. No wonder they do not want to offer him any more deals.
He doesn’t give a tosh what it does to jobs in Northern Ireland or Scotland, or the risk of a UK recession. Johnson is characterised as a buffoon, but I regard him as the ultimate cynic.
I always used to think that by the time I was this old I’d be wise…
Boris’ schemings:
“Brexit is their cloak to disguise political ambitions to change our country. Surrounded by individuals set on putting a torch to the old order, they are using propaganda to set the people against parliament and create chaos out of which will emerge a survivalist economy.”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/18/boris-johnson-brexit-ploy-extreme-rightwing-ideology-gina-miller
Love it! Love the intro…
Welcome to the Sydney Crime Museum,
the history site of a city founded by criminals.
http://www.sydneycrimemuseum.com
Bushfire Bill says:
Sunday, August 18, 2019 at 4:04 pm
Batting in cricket is pretty unique.
You have to try and hit a ball that usually bounces before you, so you need to judge both its direction and bounce.
If the ball is full then the batsman wants to go forward and try to hit the ball soon after it bounces. This minimalises any movement off the pitch and makes it easier to play the ball along the ground.
If the ball is short then the batsman wants to go back, so they have a bit more time to play it and judge how high it’s bouncing.
Now against fast bowling, if the bowler is pitching it up all the time, it’s relatively easy to play them because you’re ready to make a big step forward. The same is true if it’s always short.
By mixing it up the batsman is left in doubt and has to, play the ball from the bowler’s hand.
Unsurprisingly this is much more difficult as a batsman needs to react much quicker the length and decide whether to play forward or back. This can result in a false shot and their dismissal.
That is why bouncers are bowled.
briefly @ #1624 Sunday, August 18th, 2019 – 8:47 pm
We partly agree. Where we disagree is that you (and others, including most of Labor) seem to think it is sufficient to simply do nothing and wait for coal demand to drop, whereas I strongly believe that this is not sufficient – coal will continue to be in demand as long as countries like Australia are willing to sell it cheaply enough (which of course we will). And we will continue to burn thermal coal ourselves – at least until trade sanctions are imposed by more sensible countries who decide they actually want to try and survive global warming, and not just make a quick buck out of it.
Also, even if you are correct, it is a recipe for economic disaster for various parts of Australia to simply wait for demand to dry up and do nothing in the meantime. Whether we actively work for an end to coal, or just wait passively for other countries to do the hard yards for us, Labor should still be actively working to help the coal miners survive the imminent demise of their industry.
Labor talks the talk, but doesn’t yet seem willing to walk the walk 🙁
Briefly
Where do you get your data for coal emissions? Australian emissions reporting is designed to conceal the fact that coal causes most of our domestic emissions. Add in export coal and our coal industry is one of the world’s single largest contributors. Anything else is fiction.
“And while coal mining accounts for 9 per cent of scope 1 emissions (see top-right pie chart), it is the burning of coal for energy that remains Australia’s dirtiest industry, responsible for a whopping 54 per cent of emissions in 2013-14.”
https://reneweconomy.com.au/graph-of-the-day-australias-top-20-greenhouse-gas-emitters-98644/
Smith not there? Ruled out? Next test as well?
Mavis Davis (AD) says:
Sunday, August 18, 2019 at 7:10 pm
Comedy gold! 😆
“…When we figured out that asbestos kills you, did we all say “but people have jobs mining and producing asbestos products, so we just have to keep using it”? No, because that would have been idiotic.”
Of course it would be idiotic. But had it not been discovered that asbestos was poisonous until, say, 2000, that’s probably exactly what would have happened. Asbestos Miners would have hired lobbyists and made massive contributions to political parties, they’d have run advertising campaigns declaring that the Australian economy would collapse if we stopped using asbestos, that housing prices would soar astronomically*, the construction would come to a halt, that the science wasn’t proven, etc etc. The Australian would have published turgid 16,000 word op eds in support of asbestos…
Ditto if the dangers of smoking hadn’t been duscovered until 2000.
* they did anyway, but that’s another story
Spot on. Here’s Keating back in 1995 talking about his and Hawke’s government’s record on increasing school completion rates.
http://pmtranscripts.pmc.gov.au/taxonomy/term/9?page=15
Simon Katich says:
Sunday, August 18, 2019 at 9:12 pm
If it’s concussion then he’s out for 10 days and so he’s out of the next test.
Re BB @9:04PM
“Welcome to the Sydney Crime Museum,
the history site of a city founded by criminals.”
That recalls to me the TV series “Against the Wind”, set in Rum Corps era Sydney. I remember a line from Jon English’s character: “Everyone here is either a convict or should be one”.
Geoff Lemon doesnt write a lot about politics these days. But he still has it. He describes rat bag cricket commentary coming from RW media blogs (some might call them deplorable) as ‘expressions of…. economic anxiety. Isnt that what we call it now?’
Some chagrin in Albanese’s office that @Shorten_suite from Bill Shorten’s “media unit” is still a going concern. Is Shorten planning an ambush for Albo at the next annual conference using the CFMMEU as his weapon of choice? Will the Littlefinger leaking continue?
Steve Smith is going to be replaced on a like for like basis by Mitch Marsh.
If Jofra can play for England…. someone needs to make a quick call to Kohli.
UK papers calling it. Smith out.
Shellbell says:
Sunday, August 18, 2019 at 9:21 pm
Is that because both their given and surnames begin with same letter? 🙂
Simon Katich @ #1641 Sunday, August 18th, 2019 – 7:20 pm
Surely those experiencing economic anxiety aren’t tuned into the UK Ashes tour, but are trolling Israel Falou protagonists on news websites.
[“…When we figured out that asbestos kills you, did we all say “but people have jobs mining and producing asbestos products, so we just have to keep using it”? No, because that would have been idiotic.”]
Very arguably, we did.
Asbestos was first considered to be dangerous at the time of Pliny the Elder but certainly by 1900, its lethalness was reasonably established.
Manufacture in Oz finished in 1983.
And 5 letters each in both.
Smith’s replacement is Marnus Labuschagne who would be lucky to be top 20 among Australian batsmen .
Its also brings into focus the inexplicable decision in the last tour match to bat Marsh ahead of Labuschagne in the second innings after neither scored many in the first.
Confessions
Thanks. I had forgotten some of those details. Hawke and Keating did so many reforms for the long term good of the nation.
If only Labor today would take a similar view to finding alternative jobs for coal miners that they took with,say,waterfront reform. Retraining, compensating and/or re-employing the workers was far cheaper and far fairer than bribing the companies.
We already compensated coal miners and burners for a carbon price once under Gillard. They do not deserve two pay outs.