Various stuff that’s happening

Sarah Henderson reportedly struggling in her Senate preselection comeback bid, plus yet more on the great pollster failure, and other things besides.

Newspoll’s no-show this week suggests last fortnight’s poll may not have portended a return to the familiar schedule. Amid a general post-election psephological malaise, there is at least the following to relate:

• The great pollster failure was the subject of a two-parter by Bernard Keane in Crikey yesterday, one part examining the methodological nuts and bolts, the other the influence of polling on journalism and political culture.

Richard Willingham of the ABC reports former Corangamite MP Sarah Henderson is having a harder-than-expected time securing Liberal preselection to replace Mitch Fifield in the Senate, despite backing from Scott Morrison, Josh Frydenberg and Michael Kroger. According to the report, some of Henderson’s backers concede that Greg Mirabella, former state party vice-president and the husband of Sophie Mirabella, may have the edge.

• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has invited submissions for its regular inquiry into the 2019 election, which will be accepted until Friday, September 2019. Queensland LNP Senator James McGrath continues to chair the committee, which consists of five Coalition, two Labor and one Greens member.

Daniella White of the Canberra Times reports Labor is struggling to find candidates for next October’s Australian Capital Territory election, said by “some insiders” to reflect pessimism about the government’s chances of extending its reign to a sixth term.

• The Federation Press has published a second edition of the most heavily thumbed tome in my psephological library, Graeme Orr’s The Law of Politics: Election, Parties and Money in Australia. A good deal of water has passed under the bridge since the first edition in 2010, most notably in relation to Section 44, which now accounts for the better part of half a chapter.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,701 comments on “Various stuff that’s happening”

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  1. Rex

    Someone who moves across the country (or down) finds the weather/climate different and simply thinks it’s because they’ve moved house. There are others who are simply not environmentally aware, or too busy earning money, or dealing with personal tragedy. Others who think that everything in the media is untrue anyway.

  2. lizzie @ #1511 Sunday, August 18th, 2019 – 1:12 pm

    Rex

    Someone who moves across the country (or down) finds the weather/climate different and simply thinks it’s because they’ve moved house. There are others who are simply not environmentally aware, or too busy earning money, or dealing with personal tragedy. Others who think that everything in the media is untrue anyway.

    Ignorance is no excuse.

  3. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, August 18, 2019 at 1:13 pm

    Barney in Makassar @ #1510 Sunday, August 18th, 2019 – 1:11 pm

    Where is the intelligence in acting without thought?

    A trait common in LibNat and Labor partisans when approaching the ballot booth.

    How so?
    Everyone has their reasons and priorities in how they vote.

    Nearly 20% of Green voters prefer the L&NP who want to extend the life of existing coal plants and build new ones.

  4. Barney in Makassar @ #1516 Sunday, August 18th, 2019 – 1:21 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, August 18, 2019 at 1:13 pm

    Barney in Makassar @ #1510 Sunday, August 18th, 2019 – 1:11 pm

    Where is the intelligence in acting without thought?

    A trait common in LibNat and Labor partisans when approaching the ballot booth.

    How so?
    Everyone has their reasons and priorities in how they vote.

    Nearly 20% of Green voters prefer the L&NP who want to extend the life of existing coal plants and build new ones.

    Perhaps those voters are economic conservatives who prioritize the need to first address climate heating ..?

  5. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, August 18, 2019 at 1:25 pm

    Barney in Makassar @ #1516 Sunday, August 18th, 2019 – 1:21 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, August 18, 2019 at 1:13 pm

    Barney in Makassar @ #1510 Sunday, August 18th, 2019 – 1:11 pm

    Where is the intelligence in acting without thought?

    A trait common in LibNat and Labor partisans when approaching the ballot booth.

    How so?
    Everyone has their reasons and priorities in how they vote.

    Nearly 20% of Green voters prefer the L&NP who want to extend the life of existing coal plants and build new ones.

    Perhaps those voters are economic conservatives who prioritize the need to first address climate heating ..?

    So, how does that make them any different from any other voter?

  6. lizzie

    That was a pretty lame set of excuses. If anyone gave you those as reasons then unless they are ignorant/stupid they are bullshitting you. Busy being “shy tories” as it were when it comes to climate change and our role in causing it.

  7. lizzie says:
    Sunday, August 18, 2019 at 1:28 pm

    I think it’s time I groomed my poodle.

    Sorry! 🙂
    Probably time to go buy a new guitar. Bye!

  8. Barney in Makassar @ #1519 Sunday, August 18th, 2019 – 1:27 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, August 18, 2019 at 1:25 pm

    Barney in Makassar @ #1516 Sunday, August 18th, 2019 – 1:21 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, August 18, 2019 at 1:13 pm

    Barney in Makassar @ #1510 Sunday, August 18th, 2019 – 1:11 pm

    Where is the intelligence in acting without thought?

    A trait common in LibNat and Labor partisans when approaching the ballot booth.

    How so?
    Everyone has their reasons and priorities in how they vote.

    Nearly 20% of Green voters prefer the L&NP who want to extend the life of existing coal plants and build new ones.

    Perhaps those voters are economic conservatives who prioritize the need to first address climate heating ..?

    So, how does that make them any different from any other voter?

    They’re not voting 1 LibNat or 1 Labor …?

  9. Will Trump send aid convoys to Britain?

    BREXIT CHAOS

    No-deal Brexit will cause food, fuel, drug shortages: leaked cabinet papers

    1 hour ago by Kate Holton (SMH headline)

  10. poroti

    If anyone gave you those as reasons then unless they are ignorant/stupid they are bullshitting you.

    People like us can’t believe that there are those who just aren’t interested. Was that 20%?

  11. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, August 18, 2019 at 1:35 pm

    Barney in Makassar @ #1519 Sunday, August 18th, 2019 – 1:27 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, August 18, 2019 at 1:25 pm

    Barney in Makassar @ #1516 Sunday, August 18th, 2019 – 1:21 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, August 18, 2019 at 1:13 pm

    Barney in Makassar @ #1510 Sunday, August 18th, 2019 – 1:11 pm

    Where is the intelligence in acting without thought?

    A trait common in LibNat and Labor partisans when approaching the ballot booth.

    How so?
    Everyone has their reasons and priorities in how they vote.

    Nearly 20% of Green voters prefer the L&NP who want to extend the life of existing coal plants and build new ones.

    Perhaps those voters are economic conservatives who prioritize the need to first address climate heating ..?

    So, how does that make them any different from any other voter?

    They’re not voting 1 LibNat or 1 Labor …?

    So none, but their vote for the Greens is so important to them that they give their preference to a Party who in Government has wound back action on climate change as opposed to one that has actually implemented such action. 🙂

  12. Barney in Makassar @ #1529 Sunday, August 18th, 2019 – 1:50 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, August 18, 2019 at 1:35 pm

    Barney in Makassar @ #1519 Sunday, August 18th, 2019 – 1:27 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, August 18, 2019 at 1:25 pm

    Barney in Makassar @ #1516 Sunday, August 18th, 2019 – 1:21 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, August 18, 2019 at 1:13 pm

    Barney in Makassar @ #1510 Sunday, August 18th, 2019 – 1:11 pm

    Where is the intelligence in acting without thought?

    A trait common in LibNat and Labor partisans when approaching the ballot booth.

    How so?
    Everyone has their reasons and priorities in how they vote.

    Nearly 20% of Green voters prefer the L&NP who want to extend the life of existing coal plants and build new ones.

    Perhaps those voters are economic conservatives who prioritize the need to first address climate heating ..?

    So, how does that make them any different from any other voter?

    They’re not voting 1 LibNat or 1 Labor …?

    So none, but their vote for the Greens is so important to them that they give their preference to a Party who in Government has wound back action on climate change as opposed to one that has actually implemented such action. 🙂

    If more LibNat and Labor partisans put the Greens on top, do you think we’d get action on climate heating ..?

  13. lizzie,

    You are spot on with your last few posts.

    The majority of “ normal” Australians are just not interested in politics or much else apart from making ends meet on a daily basis. Right or not that is the way it is.

    Posters need to get into their brains that the mad political tragics here ( myself included ) are not normal. The rest of Australia does not dive into the entrails of daily politics like us. They have other things on their minds.

    Simply assuming a superior attitude and looking down on the “ mob” from the political mountain top with disdain simply serves no purpose. A number of posters need to realise that and move on from demanding the Australian voter do this, do that, accept a particular view and ignore everything else and accusing those who do not meet their high standards of being idiots etc etc.

    The real world beckons.

  14. doyley @ #1531 Sunday, August 18th, 2019 – 2:02 pm

    lizzie,

    You are spot on with your last few posts.

    The majority of “ normal” Australians are just not interested in politics or much else apart from making ends meet on a daily basis. Right or not that is the way it is.

    Posters need to get into their brains that the mad political tragics here ( myself included ) are not normal. The rest of Australia does not dive into the entrails of daily politics like us. They have other things on their minds.

    Simply assuming a superior attitude and looking down on the “ mob” from the political mountain top with disdain simply serves no purpose. A number of posters need to realise that and move on from demanding the Australian voter do this, do that, accept a particular view and ignore everything else and accusing those who do not meet their high standards of being idiots etc etc.

    The real world beckons.

    ” The majority of “ normal” Australians are just not interested in politics..”

    My opinion is that is the result of appalling politics by the two major parties.

    The people need a genuine leader to engage them with sincerity of good intentions for our communities.

  15. doyley

    Thank you. 🙂

    I am someone who has been worried about the rape of the environment since I was 10 yrs old. Unfortunately it hasn’t done me much good!

  16. Tom NicholsVerified account@RadioFreeTom
    18m18 minutes ago
    I could be wrong – it’s rare, you know, but it happens – but I’m assuming that Trump voters never defect. The “high floor, low ceiling” problem where he never loses many voters but never gains any, either. If that’s the case, third party voters come out of the Dems, not Trump. /1

    Tom NicholsVerified account@RadioFreeTom
    18m18 minutes ago
    And on that assumption, I’d rather see a coalition of all anti-Trump voters play the Electoral College strategically, and vote for the Dem as basically the candidate of a party of national salvation or unity government, or even as a caretaker govt, so long as Trump loses. /2

    Tom NicholsVerified account@RadioFreeTom
    17m17 minutes ago
    I also assume that people who might overcome their antipathy to Democrats if faced with no other choice by Trump would view a 3rd party candidate as a safety valve, in which they could wash their hands of the election but say they didn’t vote for Harris or Pete or whoever. /3

    Tom NicholsVerified account@RadioFreeTom
    17m17 minutes ago
    Heard that a lot in 2016:

    “I DIDN’T VOTE FOR TRUMP!”

    and then quietly

    “i didn’t vote for hillary either”

    Result: Trump

    /4x

    As Russia’s Democrat candidate I’m tipping Tulsi Gabbard to run as an independent candidate to siphon votes away from the Democrat and help re-elect Trump.

  17. Bouncers should be banned.
    They are an anachronistic throwback to the days when OH&S issues were regarded as for sissies only.
    To a certain extent they are still regarded as such today. Batters should not be forced to regularly (and literally) defend themselves from instant, violent death.

    The issue was essentially ignored in the Hughes review. No wonder his brother is still furious.

    I listened to a normally awesome podcast of the days events and they completely failed to grasp the fundamental point that BB is stating. Instead they eloquently reviewed the day in awe of the contest and the spectacle. FFS. You extend this further and you can use the same reasoning to defend hunger games.

    No, bouncers should not be banned. They are an essential tool in the bowlers box of tricks. It is essential because otherwise a batsmen can plan his footwork which will lose the balance between bat and ball under the current format.

    HOwever, It is not essential to have bouncers for a spectacle. Intimidation to the point of real risk of injury or worse is not essential to the game.

    A renewed effort by the administrators must occur to come up with a new set of rules that allows bouncers to continue but to a far lesser extent. Less bouncers = lower risk.

  18. And here’s some research to support Tom’s thoughts:

    Summary of Key Findings

    Having an Independent candidate in the 2020 presidential race dramatically improves President Donald Trump’s chances of reelection.

    In a head-to-head match-up of the 2020 general election, Trump trails a generic Democratic Party nominee among likely voters by 11 points, 37% to 48%, with 9% of voters undecided.

    With an Independent in the race, the election becomes a statistical tie between Trump and his Democratic Party rival, 34% to 32%, with 16% going to the Independent and 16% undecided.

    An analysis of voters who selected the Independent option after initially selecting Trump of the generic Democrat reveals that for every voter Trump loses, the Democrat loses 5.

    http://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/surveys/2019-02-26-independent-candidate-survey/

  19. C@tmomma @ #1541 Sunday, August 18th, 2019 – 2:29 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1531 Sunday, August 18th, 2019 – 2:10 pm

    lizzie @ #1533 Sunday, August 18th, 2019 – 2:08 pm

    doyley

    Thank you. 🙂

    I am someone who has been worried about the rape of the environment since I was 10 yrs old. Unfortunately it hasn’t done me much good!

    If that is the major concern of Labor and LibNat partisans then a change of #1 preference is required.

    Yeah right. 😐

    It’s true !

  20. Rex,

    If more LibNat and Labor partisans put the Greens on top, do you think we’d get action on climate heating ..?

    Most definitely, no!
    They’re no where near forming a Government.

    While if Labor had formed the Government, yes!

  21. Rex D

    I should be offended at your implication that I have been Lib/Lab same/same all my life (wot? for over 60 years??) but I’m too tired to be bothered. Taking offence is for hotheads.

  22. Thanks for that article BK. I remember that story in the Oz, as well as another similar story but that time featuring someone who’d been surfing at a local beach for years and hadn’t noticed any rising sea levels.

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