Call of the board: Melbourne

More gory detail on the result of the May 18 federal election, this time focusing on Melbourne, where an anticipated election-winning swing to Labor crucially failed to materialise.

Time for part four in the series that reviews the result of the May 18 election seat by seat, one chunk at a time. As will be the routine in posts covering the capital cities, we start with a colour-coded map showing the two-party preferred swing at polling booth level, with each booth allocated a geographic catchment area by means explained in the first post in this series. Click for an enlarged image.

Now to compare actual election results to those predicted by a demographic linear regression model, to help identify where candidate or local factors might be needed to explain the result. I now offer a new-and-improved form of the model that includes interaction effects to account for the differences in demographic effects between the cities and the regions. The utility of the change, if any, will become more apparent when I apply it to regional seats, which confounded the original version of the model. The coefficients and what-have-you can be viewed here – the table below shows the modelled predictions and actual results for Labor two-party preferred, ranked in order of difference between the result and the prediction of the model.

The main eyebrow-raisers are that the model anticipates a stronger performance by Labor in nearly every Liberal-held seats, to the extent that blue-ribbon Higgins and Goldstein are both rated as naturally highly marginal. While this could prove a portent of things to come in these seats, it might equally reflect a model leaning too heavily on the “secular/no religion” variable to cancel out the association between income and Liberal support in the inner cities.

As in Sydney, the numbers provide strong indications of incumbency advantages, with both Labor and Liberal members tending to outperform the model and thus appear at opposite ends of the table. I suspect this reflects both the obvious explanation, namely personal votes for sitting members, and a lack of effort by the parties into each other’s safe seats. A tendency for parties to perform more modestly when a seat is being vacated is not so overwhelming as to prevent strong results relative to the model for Labor in Jagajaga and Liberal in Higgins.

With that out of the way:

Aston (Liberal 10.1%; 2.7% swing to Liberal): Aston attracted a lot of discussion after the 2004 election when the Liberals recorded a higher two-party vote than they did in their jewel-in-the-crown seat of Kooyong. Now, for the first time since then, it’s happened again, and by a fairly substantial margin (the Liberal-versus-Labor margin in Kooyong having been 6.7%). As illustrated in the above table, the swing places Alan Tudge’s margin well beyond what the seat’s demographic indicators would lead you to expect.

Bruce (Labor 14.2%; 0.1% swing to Labor): Located at the point of the outer suburbs where the Labor swing dries up, cancelling out any half-sophomore effect that may have been coming Julian Hill’s way after he came to the seat in 2016.

Calwell (Labor 18.8%; 0.9% swing to Liberal): Among the modest number of Melbourne seats to swing to the Liberals, reflecting its multiculturalism and location at the city’s edge. Maria Vamvakinou nonetheless retains the fifth biggest Labor margin in the country.

Chisholm (Liberal 0.6%; 2.3% swing to Labor): Labor’s failure to win Chisholm after it was vacated by Julia Banks was among their most disappointing results of the election, but the result was entirely within the normal range both for Melbourne’s middle suburbs and a seat of its particular demographic profile. The swing to Labor was concentrated at the northern end of the electorate, which may or may not have something to do with this being the slightly less Chinese end of the electorate.

Cooper (Labor 14.6% versus Greens; 13.4% swing to Labor): With David Feeney gone and Ged Kearney entrenched, the door seems to have slammed shut on the Greens in the seat formerly known as Batman. After recording high thirties primary votes at both the 2016 election and 2018 by-election, the Greens crashed to 21.1%, while Kearney was up from 43.1% at the by-election to 46.8%, despite the fact the Liberals were in the field this time and polling 19.5%. In Labor-versus-Liberal terms, a 4.2% swing to Labor boosted the margin to 25.9%, the highest in the country.

Deakin (Liberal 4.8%; 1.7% swing to Labor): While Melburnian backers of the coup against Malcolm Turnbull did not suffer the retribution anticipated after the state election, it may at least be noted that Michael Sukkar’s seat swung the other way from its demographically similar neighbour, Aston. That said, Sukkar’s 4.8% margin strongly outperforms the prediction of the demographic model, which picks the seat for marginal Labor.

Dunkley (LABOR NOTIONAL GAIN 2.7%; 1.7% swing to Labor): Together with Corangamite, Dunkley was one of only two Victorian seats gained by Labor on any reckoning, and even they can be excluded if post-redistribution margins are counted as the starting point. With quite a few other outer urban seats going the other way, and a part-sophomore effect to be anticipated after he succeeded Bruce Billson in 2016, it might be thought an under-achievement on Chris Crewther’s part that he failed to hold out the tide, notwithstanding the near universal expectation he would lose. However, his performance was well beyond that predicted by the demographic model, which estimates the Labor margin at 6.6%.

Fraser (Labor 14.2%; 6.1% swing to Liberal): Newly created seat in safe Labor territory in western Melbourne, it seemed Labor felt the loss here of its sitting members: Bill Shorten in Maribyrnong, which provided 34% of the voters; Maria Vamvakinou in Calwell, providing 29%; Tim Watts in Gellibrand, providing 20%; and Brendan O’Connor in Gorton, providing 16%. The newly elected member, Daniel Mulino, copped the biggest swing against Labor in Victoria, reducing the seat from first to eleventh on the national list of safest Labor seats.

Gellibrand (Labor 14.8%; 0.3% swing to Liberal): The city end of Gellibrand followed the inner urban pattern in swinging to Labor, but the suburbia at the Point Cook end of the electorate tended to lean the other way, producing a stable result for third-term Labor member Tim Watts.

Goldstein (Liberal 7.8%; 4.9% swing to Labor): Tim Wilson met the full force of the inner urban swing against the Liberals, more than accounting for any sophomore effect he might have enjoyed in the seat where he succeeded Andrew Robb in 2016. Nonetheless, he maintained a primary vote majority in a seat which, since its creation in 1984, has only failed to do when David Kemp muscled Ian Macphee aside in 1990.

Gorton (Labor 15.4%; 3.0% swing to Liberal): The swing against Brendan O’Connor was fairly typical of the outer suburbs. An independent, Jarrod Bingham, managed 8.8%, with 59.2% of his preferences going to Labor.

Higgins (Liberal 3.9%; 6.1% swing to Labor): One of many blue-ribbon seats that swung hard against the Liberals without putting them in serious danger. Nonetheless, it is notable that the 3.9% debut margin for Katie Allen, who succeeds Kelly O’Dwyer, is the lowest the Liberals have recorded since the seat’s creation in 1949, surpassing Peter Costello’s 7.0% with the defeat of the Howard government in 2007. Labor returned to second place after falling to third in 2016, their primary up from 14.9% to 25.4%, while the Greens were down from 25.3% to 22.5%. This reflected a pattern through much of inner Melbourne, excepting Melbourne and Kooyong.

Holt (Labor 8.7%; 1.2% swing to Liberal): The populous, northern end of Holt formed part of a band of south-eastern suburbia that defied the Melbourne trend in swinging to Liberal, causing a manageable cut to Anthony Byrne’s margin.

Hotham (Labor 5.9%; 1.7% swing to Labor): The swing to third-term Labor member Clare O’Neil was concentrated at the northern end of the electorate, with the lower-income Vietnamese area around Springvale in the south went the other way.

Isaacs (Labor 12.7%; 3.4% swing to Labor): What I have frequently referred to as an inner urban effect actually extended all along the bayside, contributing to a healthy swing to Mark Dreyfus. The Liberal primary vote was down 7.4%, partly reflecting more minor party competition than in 2016. This was an interesting case where the map shows a clear change in temperature coinciding with the boundaries, with swings to Labor in Isaacs promptly giving way to Liberal swings across much of Hotham, Bruce and Holt.

Jagajaga (Labor 6.6%; 1.0% swing to Labor): Jenny Macklin’s retirement didn’t have any discernible impact on the result in Jagajaga, which recorded a modest swing to her Labor successor, Kate Thwaites.

Kooyong (Liberal 5.7% versus Greens): Julian Burnside defied a general Melburnian trend in adding 2.6% to the Greens primary vote, and did so in the face of competition for the environmental vote from independent Oliver Yates, whose high profile campaign yielded only 9.0%. Labor was down 3.7% to 16.8%, adrift of Burnside’s 21.2%. But with Josh Frydenberg still commanding 49.4% of the primary vote even after an 8.3% swing, the result was never in doubt. The Liberal-versus-Labor two-party margin was 6.7%, a 6.2% swing to Labor.

Lalor (Labor 12.4%; 1.8% swing to Liberal): The area around Werribee marks a Liberal swing hot spot in Melbourne’s west, showing up as a slight swing in Lalor against Labor’s Joanne Ryan.

Macnamara (Labor 6.2%; 5.0% swing to Labor): Talked up before the event as a three-horse race, this proved an easy win for Labor, who outpolled the Greens 31.8% to 24.2%, compared with 27.0% to 23.8% last time, then landed 6.2% clear after preferences of the Liberals, who were off 4.6% to 37.4%. The retirement of Michael Danby presumably explains the relatively weak 5.0% primary vote swing to Labor in the seven booths around Caulfield and Elsternwick at the southern end of the electorate, the focal point of its Jewish community. The result for the remainder of the election day booths was 9.7%.

Maribyrnong (Labor 11.2%; 0.8% swing to Liberal): Nothing out of the ordinary happened in the seat of Bill Shorten, who probably owes most of his 5.0% primary vote swing to the fact that there were fewer candidates this time. Typifying the overall result, the Liberals gained swings around Keilor at the electorate’s outer reaches, while Labor was up closer to the city.

Melbourne (Greens 21.8% versus Liberal; 2.8% swing to Greens): The Greens primary vote in Melbourne increased for the seventh successive election, having gone from 6.1% in 1998 to 22.8% when Adam Bandt first ran unsuccessfully in 2007, and now up from 43.7% to 49.3%. I await to be corrected, but I believed this brought Bandt to within an ace of becoming the first Green ever to win a primary vote majority. For the second election in a row, Bandt’s dominance of the left-of-centre vote reduced Labor to third place. On the Labor-versus-Liberal count, Labor gained a negligible 0.1% swing, unusually for a central city seat.

Menzies (Liberal 7.2%; 0.3% swing to Labor): Very little to report from Kevin Andrews’ seat, where the main parties were up slightly on the primary vote against a smaller field, and next to no swing on two-party preferred, with slight Liberal swings around Templestowe in the west of the electorate giving way to slight Labor ones around Warrandyte in the east.

Scullin (Labor 21.7%; 2.1% swing to Labor): Third-term Labor member Andrew Giles managed a swing that was rather against the outer urban trend in his northern Melbourne seat.

Wills (Labor 8.2% versus Greens; 3.2% swing to Labor): The Greens likely missed their opportunity in Wills when Kelvin Thomson retired in 2016, when Labor’s margin was reduced to 4.9%. Peter Khalil having established himself as member, he picked up 6.2% on the primary vote this time while the Greens fell 4.3%. Khalil also picked up a 4.2% swing on the Labor-versus-Liberal count, strong even by inner urban standards, leaving him with the biggest margin on that measure after Ged Kearney in Cooper.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,431 comments on “Call of the board: Melbourne”

Comments Page 7 of 29
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  1. Barney in Makassar @ #299 Saturday, August 10th, 2019 – 9:16 am

    So, a President is not allowed to have normal bodily functions! 🙂

    Of course not.
    The old military BS comments about sweat went like this.

    Th OR’s wives sweat.
    Sergeants and above Non-Coms wives perspire.
    and
    Officers wives Glow.

    Are you likely to be back in Orstraya in the near future. I as because I am planning a galah festival for Poll Bludgers (and their glowing wives) in the near future. 😇☕

  2. For President Donald Trump and his Republicans, national security is irrelevant, while political security is paramount. Trump has ignored Russian attacks on our election system, dumped one of the most important nuclear treaties in history, alienated our oldest allies, and lavished unseemly, even creepy affection on the leader of North Korea — a great guy, really, with a “beautiful vision” for his country — while getting nowhere on Pyongyang’s growing nuclear threat.

    Meanwhile, at home, the president has to be forced to stand in front of a teleprompter and recite a speech about the unacceptability of white nationalism, like a little boy required to repeat a forgotten lesson in front of the whole class. Many of us who had to watch him doubtless felt as uncomfortable as he looked trying to give that statement. His visits to Dayton and El Paso this week were supposed to be comforting but, as usual, they were merely crass and self-serving.

    Neither the president nor his party care about threats to the public, whether they come from home-grown white supremacists, mentally unstable young men with military-grade hardware, Russian military intelligence, North Korean nuclear weapons, or his own appointees, for whom the Constitution and the rule of law are, at best, annoyances.

    The GOP has mutated from the party of national security to the party of national insecurity.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2019/08/08/republicans-fail-america-mass-shootings-foreign-threats-column/1952671001/

    He goes on to say only Democrats today are the realists when it comes to national security. And that the WH and Republicans in Congress only acknowledge real and present danger as threats to their hold on office, or anything that might drive Trump to his phone to tweet or fire someone. Warnings from intel officials about foreign attacks, or innocent civilians being mowed down as they go about their business are just PR problems. OTOH banal Fox and Friends lightweight commentary is treated by Team Trump as serious advice that requires immediate executive action or tweeting. How scary dangerous is that?!

    Looking forward to seeing how Nichols goes on Real Time today.

  3. Morning bludgers

    It is a wet cold morning in my neck of the woods.

    Much appreciation BK!

    Meanwhile the world continues to inhabit this bizarro world.
    Trump continuing to display the treasonous narcissistic sexual deviant that he is.
    Boris Johnson continuing with the charade that brexit is actually possible without wrecking the UK.

    Here we have Morrison answering questions as platitudes and getting away with it. Imagine either Rudd,Gillard as PM being able to do so. It truly is nauseating

  5. Michael J. Biercuk @MJBiercuk
    ·
    19m

    And to those offended by the choice of language which highlights uncomfortable parallels to the early days of Nazi occupation in Europe, I politely decline to prioritize your comfort over the safety and wellbeing of the immigrant children currently dying in detention.

  6. Fess

    I would argue that Trump and the GPO are the party of national insecurity cos they sold out the USA. It is quite simple really.

    And the issues surrounding this administration started with this premise even before he was elected as President.

  9. Paul Barratt @phbarratt
    27m
    Strong self-confident Ministers like Anthony, Dawkins, Hawke, McLachlan, wanted to be challenged, wanted to know exactly what their senior officials advised, then made their own decisions and trusted officials to carry them out wholeheartedly.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/how-politics-has-come-to-trump-economics-in-canberra-20190808-p52fb7.html?btis

    The balance of policy influence has shifted to the political offices and external stakeholder groups, with the public service becoming more information providers and implementers of government decisions, he says.

    “The government, therefore, is left without a strong source of genuine policy advice. The consequent lack of a consistent economic narrative over the last decade is plain for all to see.”

  10. Fess

    Several GOP reps are resigning at next election cos they see that their party has hitched their wagon to Trump and they are stuffed. And as Rick Wilson so eloquently put,ETTD.
    Behind closed doors, there is panic in the GOP. The big question is will their party survive the era of Trump

  11. KayJay says:
    Saturday, August 10, 2019 at 9:26 am

    …

    Are you likely to be back in Orstraya in the near future. I as because I am planning a galah festival for Poll Bludgers (and their glowing wives) in the near future. ☕

    Thank you for your most kind invitation. Unfortunately one is unlikely to be in your vicinity in the near future as one is too preoccupied sweating. 🙂

  13. Vic:

    And the ones not retiring are fully onboard Team Trump, mirroring his rhetoric, talking points and bellicose behaviour. Even doing a complete 180 turnabout on their previous statements about Trump in order to recontest – eg Ben Sasse.

  14. Doug Cameron @DougCameron51
    ·
    5m
    Chief Govt propagandist @ScottMorrisonMP
    says VET “needs to be agile,it needs to be modern, it needs to be up to date”
    I say it needs TAFE, it needs increased funding and employers who invest in their workforce.

  17. Trump departs for another golf vacation — putting the total taxpayer cost over $111 million

    President Donald Trump departed Washington, DC for his latest golf vacation on Friday.

    “Donald Trump’s presidential golf costs have topped $110 million in his 2 1/2 years in office

    It is his 18th golf trip there since taking office. Sunday will mark his 67th day at that course and his 199th day at a golf course he owns.”

    https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/trump-obama-golf_n_5d45c72de4b0acb57fcd4eb8

  18. Personally I think the Australian laws achieve the Right balance.

    The advocates highlight that there would be no cost to the system, but that means it would only be available to those who could afford it, so they don’t seem to care about poor women who share their desire.

    If gender selection was available for all, then that leads to the potential of creating a gender imbalance within different Societies, where one gender is preferred over the other.

    I can’t see how that would be a benefit to the Society.

    IVF sex selection sparks ethical debate

    https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-10/ivf-australia-sex-selection-procedure/11387160

  20. Mediators added to school incidents/situations/disputes/bullying would seem to be adding another level of fuel to an already existing fire. There exists many levels of contact/mediation before a school principal is imported into a case.
    Schools have classroom teachers, advisors, counselors, nurses, social workers,, year masters and welfare designations within schools that routinely deal with problems as they arise.
    The nut-case parents, intent on bluster and brawn have their own untethered issues and generally don’t have the students best interest as their focus.
    In this ‘day and age’ teachers, students and parents should continue to be supported but there is probably not a need ‘to re-invent the wheel’.

  21. from Chris Kenny .. “if you are going to heed the IPCC advice to turn vegetarian for the climate, what are you going to feed your rottweiler?”

    Chris Kenny is not one of my favourite people, but that thought had crossed my mind as my dogs eat far more meat than I do.

  22. “Unfortunately one is unlikely to be in your vicinity in the near future as one is too preoccupied sweating.”

    People who say “one” when referring to themselves also don’t sweat.

  23. Steve777 says:
    Saturday, August 10, 2019 at 10:19 am

    “Unfortunately one is unlikely to be in your vicinity in the near future as one is too preoccupied sweating.”

    People who say “one” when referring to themselves also don’t sweat.

    Well one just did and one most certainly does! 😆

  24. Back in the day, trade training was carried out entirely by tradespeople (men) who would charge their apprentices for the skills imparted and require the apprentices to sign indentures for the term of their training. The purpose was to protect the earnings of the skilled. The cost of training was borne by the trainee and their families. This applied to all kinds of occupations, including non-manual occupations such as drafting. Trainees were bound to their employers/trainers. They were often very badly paid and exploited.

    The Lib-Libs appear to want to take skill training back to the 19th century or even earlier. This will have very deleterious consequences for the economy and for the socialisation of young people as they mature and enter the workforce. This is yet another example of the failure of the market system to deliver outcomes that are economically constructive.

    The consequences of this are already very apparent in important parts of the economy, including especially in metal trades. The Lib-Libs are really hopeless at this stuff. Just utterly hopeless.

  26. phoenixRED @ #297 Saturday, August 10th, 2019 – 9:03 am

    ‘Sweaty Trump’ disgusts the internet after sopping-wet White House rant: ‘Upped his meth dose this morning’

    President Donald Trump delivered a sweat-drenched rant Friday from the White House lawn — and repulsed social media users.

    The president ranted about Hollywood, black athletes, gun safety laws, China and North Korea before leaving for a vacation at his New Jersey golf course, and he was visibly damp with sweat during the news conference alongside his helicopter.

    The spectacle disgusted many viewers.

    Sarcastic Whiskey @chicaluna916
    trump is a sweaty mess. Someone needs to move him on before he strokes out.

    CHADDA RHU @SUDDENLYSEXY
    Sweaty trump is in a meltdown either his nose is running or he is about to explode.

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/08/sweaty-trump-disgusts-the-internet-after-sopping-wet-white-house-rant-upped-his-meth-dose-this-morning/

    Real men sweat.

    Shooting victims expire!

  27. lizzie @ #23 Saturday, August 10th, 2019 – 10:19 am

    from Chris Kenny .. “if you are going to heed the IPCC advice to turn vegetarian for the climate, what are you going to feed your rottweiler?”

    Chris Kenny is not one of my favourite people, but that thought had crossed my mind as my dogs eat far more meat than I do.

    Because, so I’ve heard, that “Safe Schools” and the like, programs will turn all women to their extreme feminine side (no I don’t know what that means either); the ladies so enhanced could feed their now unwanted male familiars to their dogs. What would happen with homosexuality (male) is still a matter of debate and will possibly require the assistance of ..

    to work out the finer details. Perhaps Mr. C. Kenny Esq. might like to volunteer his body in the interests of science.

    Currently 14℃ in Newcastle. Winds WNW 43 KPH. Good day for keeping warm and reading whodunnits. ☕

    P.S. Please forgive my confused language. I blame the Gummint. 😈

  30. I have to travel to Albury for work next week. A Dash8 flight tomorrow afternoon (joy) followed by a week in an icebox. Living the dream …

  31. Frankly, Morrison is probably looked upon as a “dickhead” by many of his MPs.

    For a start, he’s religious. Not mainstream religious, but nutty religious, a Happy Clapper. Athiest (which would account for most), Catholic and High Church Anglican MPs will see him as peculiar, to be tolerated at best. Jews don’t like Happy Clappers because Happy Clappers put up with Jews only as stepping stones to the End Times (to be discarded once their biblical role is played out).

    Second, he’s dorky. Morrison’s “Daggy Dad” personna is real, unsophisticated, unpopular and unattractive. He’s not a leader, but more of a loner. In fact whenever he has found himself in leadership positions, he’s been sacked.

    Third, related to the last point, because he’s a loner he doesn’t consult (and maybe a good dollop of the converse too). If you see media stories written about how consultative he is in Cabinet (which are starting to appear), then he’s not consulting, rather reverting to type. Turnbull was supposed to have run a consultative Cabinet. That didn’t do him much good, nor will it do Morrison any good.

    Fourthly, Morrison is tricky, not to be trusted. He got to where he is by backstabbing Turnbull. While useful to the hard men of the right, it was supposed to be Dutton who got the gig. Morrison’s trickery will have been noted.

    Fifthly, he has an overwhelming intensity, a manic personality. He comes on way too strong, all the time. This is tiring, except in very small doses. Morrison thinks he overwhelms people with his combination of intellect, glibness, charm, intensity and force of argument. But he just pisses them off. He’s vain about his personality, but has none. Hands up those who can sit through a Morrison TV interview and make any sense of it afterwards? Anyone? Thought not.

    In summary, Morrison is classic “dickhead” material. Now, there are lots of dickheads around, some even on this board, but they’re not Prime Minister, and they’re not trying to convey an impression of unassailable authority based on a majority of precisely one vote in the House.

    Morrison was supposed to lead the Party to defeat, not victory; to make a go of campaigning for show, lose, and then let Dutton take over. Morrison as PM is NOT the plan. He will only frustrate the hardliners and piss off the voters, probably sooner rather than later.

    To summarize: he’s is not likeable, personable or team-spirited. He blathers so much it’s exhausting to be near him. He follows one of those funny American religions. He is a loner, and too secretive. He’s tricky and untrustworthy. He patronises people. He has no sense of humour (can you imagine him successfully carrying a joke all the way through to the punchline?).

    And he has a political margin of one vote. Why else do you think he changed the Liberal Party leadership rules? He knows he’s vulnerable.

    You’d have to believe in miracles to think he’ll last too long.


  32. briefly says:
    Friday, August 9, 2019 at 10:18 pm

    frednk says:
    Friday, August 9, 2019 at 10:29 am
    The thing is the idea the conventional economists are trying to sell (that banks make money because they lend) makes no dam sense.

    It seems counter-intuitive. But it is the case that the creation of a loan (a liability in the account of the customer) gives rise to an asset (a deposit) in another account. Money is created by the creation of loans. This is not an observation in MMT. It is just what happens.

    And double book keeping exposes it as the nonsense it is.
    Think about it mate. There money is moved by there is no creation.
    Conservation of money is the best the banks have to offer.

    But the attempt to hide the reality does deeper then that; they would have one believe money is created by the dynamic of the system.

    Once you accept it is bullshit you no longer get a headache trying to find the creation. And once you have stopped trying to accept the bullshit, MMT makes a lot of dam sense.

    All money and I Mean all, is created by the government. Assets are the things government and the private sector create. Money has value when you can swap it for assets.

    We have had a very severe bout of asset inflation. That is a very severe bout of devaluation of the currency held in private hands.

    Educated population is an asset.
    Healthy population is an asset.
    A legal system that works is an asset.
    A rail system that work is an asset.
    A hospital is an asset.
    An electricity grid, public or private is an asset.
    A building private or public is an asset.
    and so it goes.

  33. Andrew_Earlwood @ #328 Saturday, August 10th, 2019 – 10:46 am

    “Book now. Send cash to KayJay Enterprises.”

    Will there be taro card readings by Dare to Tread?

    Thank you. You have raised a question that has me in a quandary (without a paddle). I occasionally have great grand children visiting, aged from 16 down to 4.

    I have lots of fidgets and the like and a 1500 piece jigsaw puzzle.

    Do kids still play monopoly and would Taro Cards be suitable for these very advanced children ?

    What’s Totem Tennis?

  34. Bushfire

    I think I could even put up with Morrison (while agreeing with most of your description) if we could dispense with his no-good cabinet. Frydenberg, Taylor, Tehan, MacCormack and the rest. Ugh!

  35. The Lying Friar at work.

    Kristina Keneally @KKeneally
    ·
    12m
    As federal Health Minister in 2004, Tony Abbott said that there were 100,000 abortions in Australia — except that figure was completely wrong, as it included miscarriages & stillbirths. Frankly, his words then were grossly insulting to grieving parents.

  38. [‘The territory [Hong Kong] has become one of the world’s most significant financial centres and commercial ports. It was estimated to be the world’s tenth-largest exporter, ninth-largest importer, and seventh-largest trading entity, and its legal tender… is the world’s 13th-most traded currency. Hong Kong hosts the largest concentration of ultra-high-net-worth individuals of any city in the world.’]

    China’s approach to HK is fraught. Commercial activity flourishes where a country closely adheres to the rule of law. Thus, for instance, before a business invests in a country, it needs to be assured that there’s an independent judiciary to settle all manner of disputes associated with conducting business.

    The proposed law to extradite suspects to the mainland is anathema to the rule of law: China’s judiciary’s a joke, the regime influencing its decisions. And, although “Handy” Andie’s recent missive was over the top, the Tiananmen Square massacre revealed that the Communist Party will not turn a blind eye to dissent. With troops mustering on the mainland, the proverbial could hit the fan any day.

  39. Mavis Davis

    I have always thought that the UK was foolish to give HK to China, and anyone who thought the double standard would work was a complete fool.

  40. It is a very good summary of the events, explains why the AER is full of hot air, but it doesn’t explain why the AER is trying to make a fool of itself. I suspect it is political and it is a press release that has something to do with the 4 million dollar campaign by the coal industry trying to convince us coal is good. It certainly isn’t technical.

    https://theconversation.com/why-is-the-australian-energy-regulator-suing-wind-farms-and-why-now-121689

  46. .@fahrenthold reports that the Trump Org still uses undocumented workers in construction crews working on the company’s winery and its golf courses from New York to Florida.

    ‘If you’re a good worker, papers don’t matter’: How a Trump construction crew has relied on immigrants without legal status

    OSSINING, N.Y. — For nearly two decades, the Trump Organization has relied on a roving crew of Latin American employees to build fountains and waterfalls, sidewalks and rock walls at the company’s winery and its golf courses from New York to Florida.

    President Trump “doesn’t want undocumented people in the country,” said one worker, Jorge Castro, a 55-year-old immigrant from Ecuador without legal status who left the company in April after nine years. “But at his properties, he still has them.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/if-youre-a-good-worker-papers-dont-matter-how-a-trump-construction-crew-has-relied-on-immigrants-without-legal-status/2019/08/09/cf59014a-b3ab-11e9-8e94-71a35969e4d8_story.html?noredirect=on

  47. lizzie:

    [‘I have always thought that the UK was foolish to give HK to China, and anyone who thought the double standard would work was a complete fool.’]

    You’re right about the ‘double standard’ not working, but Britain had no choice once the lease expired.

  50. The Chinese showed great restraint in waiting for the Lease to expire. They could have marched in at any time. Particularly since it was the British who destroyed and looted many Chinese treasure troves during the Anglo-Chinese wars. Most notably the sack of the Summer Palace. British art collections are full of the stolen artworks.

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