Time for part four in the series that reviews the result of the May 18 election seat by seat, one chunk at a time. As will be the routine in posts covering the capital cities, we start with a colour-coded map showing the two-party preferred swing at polling booth level, with each booth allocated a geographic catchment area by means explained in the first post in this series. Click for an enlarged image.
Now to compare actual election results to those predicted by a demographic linear regression model, to help identify where candidate or local factors might be needed to explain the result. I now offer a new-and-improved form of the model that includes interaction effects to account for the differences in demographic effects between the cities and the regions. The utility of the change, if any, will become more apparent when I apply it to regional seats, which confounded the original version of the model. The coefficients and what-have-you can be viewed here – the table below shows the modelled predictions and actual results for Labor two-party preferred, ranked in order of difference between the result and the prediction of the model.
The main eyebrow-raisers are that the model anticipates a stronger performance by Labor in nearly every Liberal-held seats, to the extent that blue-ribbon Higgins and Goldstein are both rated as naturally highly marginal. While this could prove a portent of things to come in these seats, it might equally reflect a model leaning too heavily on the “secular/no religion” variable to cancel out the association between income and Liberal support in the inner cities.
As in Sydney, the numbers provide strong indications of incumbency advantages, with both Labor and Liberal members tending to outperform the model and thus appear at opposite ends of the table. I suspect this reflects both the obvious explanation, namely personal votes for sitting members, and a lack of effort by the parties into each other’s safe seats. A tendency for parties to perform more modestly when a seat is being vacated is not so overwhelming as to prevent strong results relative to the model for Labor in Jagajaga and Liberal in Higgins.
With that out of the way:
Aston (Liberal 10.1%; 2.7% swing to Liberal): Aston attracted a lot of discussion after the 2004 election when the Liberals recorded a higher two-party vote than they did in their jewel-in-the-crown seat of Kooyong. Now, for the first time since then, it’s happened again, and by a fairly substantial margin (the Liberal-versus-Labor margin in Kooyong having been 6.7%). As illustrated in the above table, the swing places Alan Tudge’s margin well beyond what the seat’s demographic indicators would lead you to expect.
Bruce (Labor 14.2%; 0.1% swing to Labor): Located at the point of the outer suburbs where the Labor swing dries up, cancelling out any half-sophomore effect that may have been coming Julian Hill’s way after he came to the seat in 2016.
Calwell (Labor 18.8%; 0.9% swing to Liberal): Among the modest number of Melbourne seats to swing to the Liberals, reflecting its multiculturalism and location at the city’s edge. Maria Vamvakinou nonetheless retains the fifth biggest Labor margin in the country.
Chisholm (Liberal 0.6%; 2.3% swing to Labor): Labor’s failure to win Chisholm after it was vacated by Julia Banks was among their most disappointing results of the election, but the result was entirely within the normal range both for Melbourne’s middle suburbs and a seat of its particular demographic profile. The swing to Labor was concentrated at the northern end of the electorate, which may or may not have something to do with this being the slightly less Chinese end of the electorate.
Cooper (Labor 14.6% versus Greens; 13.4% swing to Labor): With David Feeney gone and Ged Kearney entrenched, the door seems to have slammed shut on the Greens in the seat formerly known as Batman. After recording high thirties primary votes at both the 2016 election and 2018 by-election, the Greens crashed to 21.1%, while Kearney was up from 43.1% at the by-election to 46.8%, despite the fact the Liberals were in the field this time and polling 19.5%. In Labor-versus-Liberal terms, a 4.2% swing to Labor boosted the margin to 25.9%, the highest in the country.
Deakin (Liberal 4.8%; 1.7% swing to Labor): While Melburnian backers of the coup against Malcolm Turnbull did not suffer the retribution anticipated after the state election, it may at least be noted that Michael Sukkar’s seat swung the other way from its demographically similar neighbour, Aston. That said, Sukkar’s 4.8% margin strongly outperforms the prediction of the demographic model, which picks the seat for marginal Labor.
Dunkley (LABOR NOTIONAL GAIN 2.7%; 1.7% swing to Labor): Together with Corangamite, Dunkley was one of only two Victorian seats gained by Labor on any reckoning, and even they can be excluded if post-redistribution margins are counted as the starting point. With quite a few other outer urban seats going the other way, and a part-sophomore effect to be anticipated after he succeeded Bruce Billson in 2016, it might be thought an under-achievement on Chris Crewther’s part that he failed to hold out the tide, notwithstanding the near universal expectation he would lose. However, his performance was well beyond that predicted by the demographic model, which estimates the Labor margin at 6.6%.
Fraser (Labor 14.2%; 6.1% swing to Liberal): Newly created seat in safe Labor territory in western Melbourne, it seemed Labor felt the loss here of its sitting members: Bill Shorten in Maribyrnong, which provided 34% of the voters; Maria Vamvakinou in Calwell, providing 29%; Tim Watts in Gellibrand, providing 20%; and Brendan O’Connor in Gorton, providing 16%. The newly elected member, Daniel Mulino, copped the biggest swing against Labor in Victoria, reducing the seat from first to eleventh on the national list of safest Labor seats.
Gellibrand (Labor 14.8%; 0.3% swing to Liberal): The city end of Gellibrand followed the inner urban pattern in swinging to Labor, but the suburbia at the Point Cook end of the electorate tended to lean the other way, producing a stable result for third-term Labor member Tim Watts.
Goldstein (Liberal 7.8%; 4.9% swing to Labor): Tim Wilson met the full force of the inner urban swing against the Liberals, more than accounting for any sophomore effect he might have enjoyed in the seat where he succeeded Andrew Robb in 2016. Nonetheless, he maintained a primary vote majority in a seat which, since its creation in 1984, has only failed to do when David Kemp muscled Ian Macphee aside in 1990.
Gorton (Labor 15.4%; 3.0% swing to Liberal): The swing against Brendan O’Connor was fairly typical of the outer suburbs. An independent, Jarrod Bingham, managed 8.8%, with 59.2% of his preferences going to Labor.
Higgins (Liberal 3.9%; 6.1% swing to Labor): One of many blue-ribbon seats that swung hard against the Liberals without putting them in serious danger. Nonetheless, it is notable that the 3.9% debut margin for Katie Allen, who succeeds Kelly O’Dwyer, is the lowest the Liberals have recorded since the seat’s creation in 1949, surpassing Peter Costello’s 7.0% with the defeat of the Howard government in 2007. Labor returned to second place after falling to third in 2016, their primary up from 14.9% to 25.4%, while the Greens were down from 25.3% to 22.5%. This reflected a pattern through much of inner Melbourne, excepting Melbourne and Kooyong.
Holt (Labor 8.7%; 1.2% swing to Liberal): The populous, northern end of Holt formed part of a band of south-eastern suburbia that defied the Melbourne trend in swinging to Liberal, causing a manageable cut to Anthony Byrne’s margin.
Hotham (Labor 5.9%; 1.7% swing to Labor): The swing to third-term Labor member Clare O’Neil was concentrated at the northern end of the electorate, with the lower-income Vietnamese area around Springvale in the south went the other way.
Isaacs (Labor 12.7%; 3.4% swing to Labor): What I have frequently referred to as an inner urban effect actually extended all along the bayside, contributing to a healthy swing to Mark Dreyfus. The Liberal primary vote was down 7.4%, partly reflecting more minor party competition than in 2016. This was an interesting case where the map shows a clear change in temperature coinciding with the boundaries, with swings to Labor in Isaacs promptly giving way to Liberal swings across much of Hotham, Bruce and Holt.
Jagajaga (Labor 6.6%; 1.0% swing to Labor): Jenny Macklin’s retirement didn’t have any discernible impact on the result in Jagajaga, which recorded a modest swing to her Labor successor, Kate Thwaites.
Kooyong (Liberal 5.7% versus Greens): Julian Burnside defied a general Melburnian trend in adding 2.6% to the Greens primary vote, and did so in the face of competition for the environmental vote from independent Oliver Yates, whose high profile campaign yielded only 9.0%. Labor was down 3.7% to 16.8%, adrift of Burnside’s 21.2%. But with Josh Frydenberg still commanding 49.4% of the primary vote even after an 8.3% swing, the result was never in doubt. The Liberal-versus-Labor two-party margin was 6.7%, a 6.2% swing to Labor.
Lalor (Labor 12.4%; 1.8% swing to Liberal): The area around Werribee marks a Liberal swing hot spot in Melbourne’s west, showing up as a slight swing in Lalor against Labor’s Joanne Ryan.
Macnamara (Labor 6.2%; 5.0% swing to Labor): Talked up before the event as a three-horse race, this proved an easy win for Labor, who outpolled the Greens 31.8% to 24.2%, compared with 27.0% to 23.8% last time, then landed 6.2% clear after preferences of the Liberals, who were off 4.6% to 37.4%. The retirement of Michael Danby presumably explains the relatively weak 5.0% primary vote swing to Labor in the seven booths around Caulfield and Elsternwick at the southern end of the electorate, the focal point of its Jewish community. The result for the remainder of the election day booths was 9.7%.
Maribyrnong (Labor 11.2%; 0.8% swing to Liberal): Nothing out of the ordinary happened in the seat of Bill Shorten, who probably owes most of his 5.0% primary vote swing to the fact that there were fewer candidates this time. Typifying the overall result, the Liberals gained swings around Keilor at the electorate’s outer reaches, while Labor was up closer to the city.
Melbourne (Greens 21.8% versus Liberal; 2.8% swing to Greens): The Greens primary vote in Melbourne increased for the seventh successive election, having gone from 6.1% in 1998 to 22.8% when Adam Bandt first ran unsuccessfully in 2007, and now up from 43.7% to 49.3%. I await to be corrected, but I believed this brought Bandt to within an ace of becoming the first Green ever to win a primary vote majority. For the second election in a row, Bandt’s dominance of the left-of-centre vote reduced Labor to third place. On the Labor-versus-Liberal count, Labor gained a negligible 0.1% swing, unusually for a central city seat.
Menzies (Liberal 7.2%; 0.3% swing to Labor): Very little to report from Kevin Andrews’ seat, where the main parties were up slightly on the primary vote against a smaller field, and next to no swing on two-party preferred, with slight Liberal swings around Templestowe in the west of the electorate giving way to slight Labor ones around Warrandyte in the east.
Scullin (Labor 21.7%; 2.1% swing to Labor): Third-term Labor member Andrew Giles managed a swing that was rather against the outer urban trend in his northern Melbourne seat.
Wills (Labor 8.2% versus Greens; 3.2% swing to Labor): The Greens likely missed their opportunity in Wills when Kelvin Thomson retired in 2016, when Labor’s margin was reduced to 4.9%. Peter Khalil having established himself as member, he picked up 6.2% on the primary vote this time while the Greens fell 4.3%. Khalil also picked up a 4.2% swing on the Labor-versus-Liberal count, strong even by inner urban standards, leaving him with the biggest margin on that measure after Ged Kearney in Cooper.
The government should simply allow its deficit spending to accumulate as excess reserve balances in the banking system. There is no need for the voluntary convention of accompanying deficit spending with bond issuance.
Confessions @ #242 Friday, August 9th, 2019 – 8:52 pm
Because they come along to be out and proud, so to speak.
The ones I really detest though are the likes of ‘Judge’ Jeanine Pirro. People, like Andrew Bolt as well, who used to be moderates, if not quite Left Progressives, who saw the NeoConservative wave coming and surfed it for fame and profit. Essentially, media *hores who have sold their souls. This was Pirro’s contribution today:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-mix-of-political-civility-and-conservative-rhetoric-aired-at-sydney-conference-20190809-p52fpt.html
Just vile stuff.
C@t:
No surprises there. Pirro, Tucker Carlson and Trump are all on a mutually beneficial social media feedback loop.
These events just amplify the true nature of these people which is why I’m not overly concerned with their scheduling. Usually what happens is that they over-reach when among their brethren and end up looking like complete tossers, totally anathema to civil society.
frednk @ #220 Friday, August 9th, 2019 – 7:49 pm
I tried. I nearly died of boredom. The big problem with Magic Money Theory is that it largely consists of platitudes dressed up as theory.
Lil Nas X?
Mavis Davis @8.36:
Thank you for the Orlinski link which I enjoyed.
The counter tenor for whom I have always had a soft spot was Alfred Deller. When he toured in 1964 I wa fortunate enough to attend a rehearsal of him with his Consort in the crypt of St Mary’s Cathedral before his Sydney concerts.I still remember it well.
Player One @ #254 Friday, August 9th, 2019 – 9:27 pm
Sex is alright, but it can’t beat the real thing!
The constraints that apply to the issuance of currency are politically-driven. The main pressures that operate are the choices to either protect capital or repress labour. That’s all it gets down to in the end.
Except….that isn’t the end.
In the end we need a real economy in which capital and labour are both deployed and derive gains. But the real economy consists of more than just capital and labour. It is premised on the existence of a stable physical environment. We are losing that stability. In an unstable physical environment the private capital sector cannot calibrate investment effectively and investment will necessarily contract.
Taken to its limit, in the absence of capital investment eventually there will be nothing but a subsistence-level labour-intense agrarian or paleo-economy. Ultimately, to prevent that, investment will have to become a socially-induced function. Since investment can be adduced from nothing – from the issuance of currency by the sovereign ex nihilo – it could become a publicly-decided rather than a market-decided process.
We should already be doing this….a lot of it….on a scale that includes all the sovereign issuers.
But simply to state that is to realise it will not be done. There is no consensus for that. We have many centuries of economic history to observe. We can see that market failure has been very common. This continues. Markets fail to correctly price the environment, among other things. The market will continue to do that and will continue to fail to invest appropriately as a result. We can also observe that investment has mostly been privately adduced. We have placed our future in the hands of an instrument – the market – that will necessarily fail.
Mexicanbeemer
Yes. What is government but an interpretation of the regulatory will of the same people who form the market? Money is one aspect.
C@t @ 9:19 – you seem to have misspelt “horses”.
Nicholas has introduced thinking about the economy – the system of production and its financial elements – that really do change the conventional, mystified way the economic ‘problem’ is depicted.
In the conventional understanding economic growth could never occur. And likewise their could never be a recession, still less a depression or permanent stagnation. Imperialism would not have been possible. The usual discussion of economics is a-historic. It does not explain what has actually occurred or why we have the economic history that we have. It does not explain how growth arises. It does not explain the role of public finance or account for the existence and origins of the monetary order.
It pre-supposes that markets are correct. But we know they get very important things wrong all the time. It pre-supposes that capital and labour are somehow ‘equal’ because they are inter-dependent. But we know this is not correct. There is no equality and the order is premised on accentuating inequality.
Economics is stale. It needs to be re-written to reflect what actually has happened and what is continuing to happen.
The biggest error of economics is to suppose that such a thing as climate change – global heating – cannot happen. This is to suppose that the economy cannot change the environment. But this is obviously wrong.
briefly, I agree. (Are echo chambers the same as a consensus?) Money is a tool. If we want to use money to manage our finite resources (and something has to be used) we need to monetise environmental sustainability. Damage and restoration must be part of the calculation, not just exploitation. At the moment we mine the environment of its riches. Eventually we will run out.
You also said:
I agree the economy can change the environment. But I think the environment can also change the economy. We need to link them together in our heads.
Market economics is a theoretical construct. “Free markets” don’t exist, they are like the “frictionless surfaces” that might be inviked in exam questions in basic physics.
Fior a start, markets mostly operate on fairly short time horizons – a decade or so sometimes, or maybe more like the duration of a CEO contract – 5 years. And if course, the markets aren’t free anyway. The powerful players make the rules.
“Are echo chambers the same as a consensus?”
Not quite. A consensus is where people you approve of agree. An echo chamber is where people you don’t approve of agree.
frednk says:
Friday, August 9, 2019 at 10:29 am
The thing is the idea the conventional economists are trying to sell (that banks make money because they lend) makes no dam sense.
It seems counter-intuitive. But it is the case that the creation of a loan (a liability in the account of the customer) gives rise to an asset (a deposit) in another account. Money is created by the creation of loans. This is not an observation in MMT. It is just what happens.
Lately…I agree entirely
Wild weather in Victoria dumps snow and snaps Frankston Pier near Melbourne – video
https://www.theguardian.com/global/video/2019/aug/09/wild-weather-in-victoria-dumps-snow-snaps-frankston-pier-near-melbourne-video
Snow falls on footy match at Canberra’s Manuka Oval
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/snow-falls-on-footy-match-at-canberra-s-manuka-oval-20190809-p52fr3.html
Snow@AFL: https://mobile.twitter.com/7AFL/status/1159774811083554817?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1159774811083554817&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ski.com.au%2Fassets%2Flib%2Fs9e%2Ftwitter.min.html%231159774811083554817
Cold, clear, starry and very windy in Sydney.
Test
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
This article that exposes the methods employed in play at Centrelink with respect to Robodebt reeks of lousy, lazy, compromised management. It flies in the face of Deming’s point 11 of his 14 points, namely “No more focus on achieving certain margins; that impedes professionals from performing their work well and taking the necessary time for it. Rushing through the work can cause production errors. Managers should therefore focus on quality rather than quantity.” It stinks!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/whiteboard-of-shame-robo-debt-compliance-officers-worked-to-targets-20190809-p52foq.html
Peter Hartcher explains what it was that impelled Andrew Hastie towards his stance on China.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/hastie-s-awakening-to-xi-s-bid-for-total-control-of-china-and-beyond-20190809-p52for.html
Laura Tingle says that Morrison has seemed to betray the bitter reality that the government doesn’t actually have any idea what to do about either the growing US-China tensions, or the growing Chinese belligerence which it now believes extends to building a new military base in Cambodia.
https://outline.com/KL7s9g
RBA governor Philip Lowe has revealed contingency planning is underway at the bank in case interest rates are cut to zero and it needs to consider unconventional monetary stimulus measures used overseas – quantitative easing.
https://outline.com/PG89qK
The New Daily tells us that Philip Lowe says Australia has a range of options available to lift the country’s stagnant wages, but they are at the mercy of the government.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2019/08/09/wages-growth-outlook-gets-worse-and-parliament-has-the-solution/
With some glee, I think, Michael Pascoe writes that Alan Jones is proving to be a very expensive shock jock for Macquarie Media with another multimillion-dollar provision in the company’s accounts for unspecified legal costs. He says that Macquarie, which is 54 per cent owned by Nine Entertainment, this week reported its net profit was nearly halved to $7.6 million.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/2019/08/09/alan-jones-nine-radio-defamation/
Nick O’Malley went to look at day 1 of CPAC.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-mix-of-political-civility-and-conservative-rhetoric-aired-at-sydney-conference-20190809-p52fpt.html
Here’s what Abbott had to say there.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6319964/abortion-law-reform-is-inhuman-abbott/?cs=14329
When Tony Abbott and Peta Credlin share billing with radical far-right figures, we should be concerned says John Wilson.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/09/when-tony-abbott-and-peta-credlin-share-billing-with-radical-far-right-figures-we-should-be-concerned
Crispin Hull says that Australia is extremely fortunate in the High Court that it has and tells us why.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6318809/australia-is-extremely-fortunate-in-its-high-court-we-should-celebrate-it/?cs=14258
The insolvent recycler SKM has left a Melbourne logistics firm holding 700 shipping containers filled with thousands of tonnes of recyclable waste from households all over Melbourne.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/transport-firm-left-with-700-shipping-containers-of-recycler-skm-s-waste-20190809-p52fox.html
Bevan Shields reports that Dutton has effectively told the Australian Federal Police to avoid raiding or investigating journalists who have been leaked confidential information, in a rare intervention ahead of a major public inquiry into press freedom. What timing!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/peter-dutton-orders-afp-to-lift-the-bar-for-investigating-journalists-ahead-of-major-inquiry-20190809-p52fos.html
Kirsten Lawson writes about Philip Lowe substantially upping pressure on governments to increase pay packets for public servants, blaming caps on public sector wage growth for suppressing wages across the board.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6319344/caps-on-public-service-wages-contributing-to-stagnant-growth-reserve-bank-head/?cs=14350
Ross Gittins tells us how the role of Treasury and other agencies has changed.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/how-politics-has-come-to-trump-economics-in-canberra-20190808-p52fb7.html
Paul Bongiorno begins this contribution with “The Trump presidency has been a wild ride for its ally Australia, and is becoming dangerously more bizarre by the day. Canberra is being railroaded into a confrontation with Beijing, which is clearly not in its economic or strategic interests. The Morrison government knows as much and is struggling to deal with America’s ambition in a way that assures Australia’s prosperity and security.”
https://outline.com/vfdx27
Elizabeth Farrelly is not at all impressed with the NSW as she says that forgiving land clearers because of drought is like comforting a fat child with chocolate.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/forgiving-land-clearers-because-of-drought-is-like-comforting-a-fat-child-with-chocolate-20190808-p52f64.html
“It’s the economy, stupid, but is that enough in Morrison’s challenging times?”, asks Kirsten Lawson.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6314025/its-the-economy-stupid-but-is-that-enough-in-morrisons-challenging-times/?cs=14329
Dana McCauley reports that the peak body for convenience stores has backed calls to relax the strict rules governing pharmacies to enable Australians to buy medicines at its 6500 stores, including 7-Eleven and Caltex. What could possibly go wrong?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/push-for-24-hour-convenience-stores-to-sell-prescription-medicines-20190809-p52fki.html
Elizabeth Knight outlines the new, long tern relationship between Australia Post and Qantas based upon bullish projections on online shopping.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/australia-post-boss-christine-holgate-s-bullish-e-commerce-bet-20190809-p52fm0.html
Tony Wright reminds us of the oil crises we faced in the past and how our energy security is now very much compromised.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/panic-buying-begging-trump-for-oil-no-worries-she-ll-be-right-20190807-p52eu1.html
The dual citizenship case of Josh Frydenberg deepens as questions are raised about his mother’s statelessness, writes Trevor Poulton.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-crux-of-the-frydenberg-case,12982
Alexandra Smith writes that after a bruising two weeks of debate inside and outside NSW Parliament, Gladys Berejiklian faces anger in her party room.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/berejiklian-left-with-a-bitterly-divided-party-room-after-abortion-debate-20190809-p52flq.html
“Why is the Australian energy regulator suing wind farms – and why now?” Samantha Hepburn answers the question.
https://theconversation.com/why-is-the-australian-energy-regulator-suing-wind-farms-and-why-now-121689
Mike Seccombe reveals how political parties are cashing in on gambling largesse.
https://outline.com/tUrEYL
Despite a revelation of maltreatment in detention centres, it was revealed that Home Affairs avoided charges over a death, writes Max Costello.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/detention-centre-maltreatment-revealed-while-home-affairs-avoids-charges,12983
A major global housing crash could lead to a credit crunch, analysts have warned, potentially hitting growth far harder than the trade war or a no-deal Brexit writes Tim Wallace from London.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/world-economy-faces-a-risk-that-s-far-bigger-than-trump-s-trade-war-20190809-p52ffs.html
The suspect accused of killing 22 people at an El Paso Walmart told authorities that he was targeting “Mexicans” and confessed to carrying out the shooting rampage when he surrendered to authorities, according to police.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/el-paso-suspect-said-he-was-targeting-mexicans-police-reveal-20190810-p52frr.html
A lecturer in terrorism studies, Kristy Campion, explains the motivations for racist extremists and warns that shutting down their platforms, such as 8Chan, won’t stop them.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/from-christchurch-to-el-paso-understanding-white-right-wing-terrorism-20190809-p52fke.html
And Nick O’Malley explains how extremists feed off each other to recruit and spread their propaganda.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/extremists-feed-off-each-other-to-recruit-and-spread-their-propaganda-20190809-p52fmw.html
While Rick Morton tells us how the Murdoch media fuels far-right recruitment.
https://outline.com/nRhPUz
Although a parliamentary inquiry is revisiting the possibility of nuclear power in Australia, recent history suggests any support is unlikely to gain critical mass. It’s a pipe dream says Royce Kurmelovs.
https://outline.com/83C2Bw
Boris Johnson’s chief of staff cancelled all leave for government advisers until 31 October in a missive on Thursday night, raising further speculation the government is planning for a forced snap election in the aftermath of the UK leaving the EU with no deal.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/09/no-10-cancels-staff-leave-raising-possibility-of-snap-election
An OECD report on the state of the world’s middle class explains a lot about the trouble for department stores.
https://www.theage.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/the-real-killer-of-big-stores-pressure-on-mid-income-family-budgets-20190808-p52f5v.html
Jane Caro writes that where once school principals were treated with deference and respect, today they are often met with aggression and conflict..
https://outline.com/DyNvRV
Jill Stark writes that despite significant progress for the rights of LGBTQIA people in recent decades, suicide rates in the community remain alarmingly high – and advocates warn that the religious freedom debate is only fuelling the crisis.
https://outline.com/xPAwJt
Supergrass Nicola Gobbo received death and rape threats when the underworld guessed she was a informer, with senior police fearing she’d end up in a “body bag”, yet she was still deployed by force command, a public inquiry has heard.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/informer-3838-threatened-with-rape-and-death-gobbo-should-have-wound-down-as-an-informer-20190809-p52fj2.html
A backlash is building over a picture posted by Melania Trump on Twitter that showed her and Donald Trump smiling broadly while holding a baby who was orphaned in the mass shooting in El Paso.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/aug/09/trump-el-paso-melania-orphan-baby-thumbs-up
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe and the lever that won’t be pulled.
Alan Moir has been on fire lately.
Simon Letch on land clearing.
Something similar from John Shakespeare.
John Shakespeare gives us Steven Smith.
A warning from Jim Pavlidis.
Also from Andrew Dyson.
Zanetti just can’t help himself.
Jon Kudelka with some concerns about privacy.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/e951151d81f557d69a37809b0590cffa?width=1024
From the US. They have been unrelenting lately.
I just refreshed the page and nothing changed so I thought I’d do a test. Seems as though everyone’s hands are too cold to type this morning. Bed is a good place to be. 🙂
BK the Eveready human battery is on the job though! Thank you!
Morning all. Thanks BK for your efforts this morning. On matters Epstein…very grubby details released overnight.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/09/documents-released-about-jeffrey-epstein-and-ghislaine-maxwell.html
Kirsten Lawson writes about Philip Lowe substantially upping pressure on governments to increase pay packets for public servants, blaming caps on public sector wage growth for suppressing wages across the board.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6319344/caps-on-public-service-wages-contributing-to-stagnant-growth-reserve-bank-head/?cs=14350
Well, duh! I knew this as soon as Eric Abetz, Abbott’s Employment Minister in charge of the Public Service, began his crackdown on PS wages. Some of the ‘pay negotiations’ from his time are still ongoing.
The Cons are a pack of hard-hearted bastards, but I guess they know that.
Philip Lawn is an Australian economist who has done excellent work on how to transition to a steady-state economy. In a steady-state economy the quality of output improves but resource throughput remains constant. If you Google Scholar Philip Lawn steady-state you should find his papers.
‘fess,
I have read Epstein shills in the media recently proclaim Maxwell was ‘such a charming, vivacious woman to be around’.
I guess her public face was like that. 😐
Economics is like a drug to you, isn’t it Nicholas? 🙂
C@t:
The documents fly in the face of Trump’s denial he had anything to do with Epstein, given his name appears on the flight log for a trip on Epstein’s private plane. Radio silence from the WH on these documents, and Orange Crush is back to tweeting about how racist other people are.
Thank you, Mavis and Briefly. ☺️
‘fess,
I just read that CNBC article. Apparently Ghislaine Maxwell was the daughter of the late media tycoon, Robert Maxwell! The one who fell overboard from his luxury yacht, never to be seen again.
What a prize grub Donald Trump is!
Donald Trump has been criticised for using a hospital visit in El Paso to boast about crowd numbers at a rally held several months ago. He made the comments while visiting the Texas city after a gunman killed 22 people in a shopping centre. He also hit out at Beto O’Rourke, an El Paso local and Democratic presidential candidate. Trump’s administration then turned the El Paso visit into a campaign video
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/video/2019/aug/09/trump-turns-el-paso-visit-into-campaign-ad-boasts-rally-numbers-video
C@t:
I just read that too.
From Michael West.
“Dear
@Accenture_ANZ
why did your Australian royalties bill jump by $68m to $156m last year? Do you agree this looks like an aggressive tax avoidance tactic to offshore your consulting profits (which come from Aussie taxpayers)? Who got this $156m? Thanks”
John Marsden immediately received criticism for his book about helicopter parents, but Jane Caro’s article in the Saturday Paper on the problems of school principals suggests that Marsden has it right.
“The bullying of school leadership by parents”
https://outline.com/DyNvRV
lizzie,
From my personal experience, being a helicopter parent works with one type of child but not the other. They either welcome your interest and encouragement, or they resent it.
As far as Principals go, I think they should employ mediators. Introduce a degree of separation between the angry bird parents and themselves. Then they could get on with doing their job running the school.
This man has so many things upside-down.
***
C@t
Mediators sound like a good idea.
Fantastic take-down of mealy-mouthed Trumpists trying to assert the El Paso murderer wasn’t a white supremacist and couldn’t have been influenced by Trump’s rhetoric, because he was worried about plastic waste, wanted a UBI and was opposed to oil drilling.
https://thebulwark.com/the-denialists/?amp&__twitter_impression=true
This importation of Trumpian conservative thinking is getting frightening. One commentator has compared our time to the 1930s, building up to the Hitler War.
“Conservatives” are finding “Too many of us have been voices crying in the wilderness.” when they and their allies own all the megaphones? What crap/
Unless they mean that their bellowing is so loud that there is no wilderness so remote that they can’t be heard.
lizzie
Marsden received criticism for some of the comments he made in the book, not for the premise of the book.
For example, he said that children being bullied were basically at fault because they were being bullied for being different. He also said that bullying had nothing to do with racism, because Asian kids who acted ‘white’ were bullied less than other Asians.
Today’s PvO. Are those cracks appearing in what was supposed to be Morrison’s iron grip on the partyroom post election?
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/pm-would-be-wise-to-weather-debate-on-super/news-story/63017d885493b78d353928c037d4b2b4
zoomster
OK. That didn’t come out in the interview with him that I saw.
Steve777 @ #290 Saturday, August 10th, 2019 – 8:32 am
Gold.
Well, obviously…
‘Sweaty Trump’ disgusts the internet after sopping-wet White House rant: ‘Upped his meth dose this morning’
President Donald Trump delivered a sweat-drenched rant Friday from the White House lawn — and repulsed social media users.
The president ranted about Hollywood, black athletes, gun safety laws, China and North Korea before leaving for a vacation at his New Jersey golf course, and he was visibly damp with sweat during the news conference alongside his helicopter.
The spectacle disgusted many viewers.
Sarcastic Whiskey @chicaluna916
trump is a sweaty mess. Someone needs to move him on before he strokes out.
CHADDA RHU @SUDDENLYSEXY
Sweaty trump is in a meltdown either his nose is running or he is about to explode.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/08/sweaty-trump-disgusts-the-internet-after-sopping-wet-white-house-rant-upped-his-meth-dose-this-morning/
Trump’s mind only focuses on ‘a putter, a cheeseburger and someone else’s credit card’: Trump biographer
President Donald Trump will not “lift a hand” to pass background checks, the author of the 2005 book TrumpNation: The Art of Being the Donald explained on MSNBC on Friday.
“I don’t think he cares about it morally. I don’t think he cares about it as policy and I don’t think he cares in any way about the victims of the shootings,” he said.
He realizes the NRA has essentially become the piggy bank of the GOP, giving exclusively to Republican candidates and officeholders, he likes that about them,” he continued.
“When you ask me to explain the organization in his mind, there is no organization. Inside his mind there’s a putter, a cheeseburger, someone else’s credit card and a porn video and the rest of it is just an empty space where he’s figuring out how he can occupy center stage and meet these other needs he has that are very self-centered and self-involved,”
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/08/trumps-mind-only-focuses-on-a-putter-a-cheeseburger-and-someone-elses-credit-card-trump-biographer/
So, a President is not allowed to have normal bodily functions! 🙂
Good morning.
Thanks BK for a very interesting Dawn Patrol.