We now have as much in the way of results out of the federal election as we’re ever going to, with the Australian Electoral Commission finally publishing preference flow by party data. The table below offers a summary and how it compares with the last two election. They confirm that YouGov Galaxy/Newspoll was actually too conservative in giving the Coalition 60% of preferences from One Nation and the United Australia Party, with the actual flow for both parties being nearly identical at just over 65%.
The United Australia Party preference flow to the Coalition was very substantially stronger than the 53.7% recorded by the Palmer United Party in 2013, despite its how-to-vote cards directing preferences to the Coalition on both occasions. A result is also listed for Palmer United in 2016, but it is important to read these numbers in conjunction with the column recording the relevant party’s vote share at the election, which in this case was next to zero (it only contested one lower house seat, and barely registered there). Greens preferences did nothing out of the ordinary, being slightly stronger to Labor than in 2016 and slightly weaker than in 2013.
The combined “others” flow to the Coalition rose from 50.8% to 53.6%, largely reflecting the much smaller footprint of the Nick Xenophon Team/Centre Alliance, whose preferences in 2016 split 60-40 to Labor. This also contributes to the smaller share for “others”, with both figures being closer to where they were in 2013. “Inter-Coalition” refers to where there were both Liberal and Nationals candidates in a seat, some of whose preferences will have flowed to Labor rather than each other. The “share” result in this case records the combined Coalition vote in such seats as a share of the national formal vote.
While we’re here, note the blog’s other two recent posts: Adrian Beaumont’s account of Brecon & Radnorshire by-election, and my own in-depth review of the legal challenges against the election of Josh Frydenberg in Kooyong and Gladys Liu in Chisholm.
Terrorism expert Kayyem expresses complete disgust with El Paso mass shooting: Just ‘another American weekend’
On Saturday, CNN national security analyst Juliette Kayyem expressed her horror and disgust amid coverage of the mass shooting at the Cielo Vista Mall in El Paso, Texas in conversation with anchor Wolf Blitzer.
“So that’s what we’re looking at, as this unhappy — you know, another American weekend so to speak, with another active shooter case,” said Kayyem.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/08/terrorism-expert-kayyem-expresses-complete-disgust-with-el-paso-mass-shooting-just-another-american-weekend/
‘If thoughts and prayers worked, this would’ve been solved a long time ago’: Ex-police chief
Politicians offering “thoughts and prayers” following a mass shooting is not an adequate response, a top former law enforcement official explained on CNN on Saturday.
“This is totally out of hand in this country and something needs to be done, and at least the conversation started, in order to bring some of this to an end,” he continued.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/08/if-thoughts-and-prayers-worked-this-wouldve-been-solved-a-long-time-ago-ex-police-chief/
Invasive wombats v invasive humans.
Laughable, non?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/farm-bankruptcies-rise-as-trumps-trade-war-grinds-on/?utm_term=.e1c2ad9715c7
And there is a map showing the rise of family farm bankruptcies – states that Trump won in 2016 dominate. Democrats should be pushing the line that Trump’s trade war is hurting them, not helping them.
Mexicanbeemer @ #366 Sunday, August 4th, 2019 – 12:45 am
Think hairy rhinoceros without the horn(s). Probably rather different gut biomes too.
BW
The reaforestation program in China is a serious effort, primarily to try to eliminate the sandstorms which blanket Beijing and a secondary aim to lower the smog levels. The Comrades are using the command and control approach.
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1139006.shtml
A 21 year old white supremacist has just killed 20 people in a shopping centre in El Paso Texas.
https://heavy.com/news/2019/08/patrick-crusius/
sprocket_ @ #258 Sunday, August 4th, 2019 – 8:35 am
Yes, just reading about it. White Supremacist kills 20 in El Paso, the home of popular Democrat Beto O’Rourke, on the border between the USA and Mexico:
El Paso is located in western Texas, right on the border with Mexico. The diverse city has around 680,000 residents, and its population is 80% Latino. Its Mexican twin city Ciudad Juárez, sits directly across the large barrier that divides their downtown areas. More than 23,000 pedestrians cross from Ciudad Juárez to El Paso to work every day.
And the Mass Murderer drove 600 miles from Dallas, Texas to do it.
And dumbarse Trump’s response: ‘May God be with you!’ 😡
E. G. Theodore says:
Saturday, August 3, 2019 at 8:11 pm
…..
3. There is feedback of course, but the polar ice caps are largely the result (not the cause) of global temperature. In the absence of atmosphere the planet will be about -150 degrees Celsius (if I recall correctly, or maybe it’s 150 Kelvin); in event, effing cold. So the atmosphere provides a global warming effect essential for life, and it is the intensity of this global warming effect (in turn the result of the “thickness” of the atmosphere, due to CO2, methane, particulates etc.) that determines the temperature and whether there is any “ice left in the esky” so to speak.
Happy to own my post, but thank you for being so polite.
Yes, but the point is: the energy balance is not there, we are busy melting the ice which takes a lot energy, once done; what happens then?
As things stand we are busy melting the ice; which is taking the energy that is not being sent back to space because of the green house effect you so correctly describe.
When the ice is done what happens then? Where does the energy go?
I think the esky is a dam good way of describing just how far out out of balance things are. We haven’t seen nothing yet.
And while I am on about the consequences of all this, have a look at the historic temperature record going back a million years. After every temperature rise there is a sudden temperature fall. What is that about? Are our ports to be flooded or frozen. Whatever, we are in for one hell of a time.
Tariffs are interesting, I will not argue that they don’t lead to slower economic growth (but I am not sure that is a bad thing, we now build a lot of shit that gets chucked out). I think it is a safe bet it will lead to the same outcome seen in 1930, but 1930 happened for a reason. The thing is, if you are an unemployed steal worker, is 1930 going to be your concern. Trump is not up for reelection after all this has played out.
As to building modern missiles, I will assume all your statements are correct. I am not sure Europe will see it as anything other than a bloody scary development.
Except the white supremacist with the loudest online voice is currently in the White House and nothing can be done about him.
Listening to a heartbreaking program, Background Briefing, on Radio National about Parentsnext and it’s unfair and punitive treatment! As a single parent for many years, I find it terribly distressing and wish there were stronger advocates as I remember how exhausting and isolating it was. I was unaware of how cruel it is….wish Four Corners would take it up.
Quasar,
As a Single Mother on Social Security after my husband died, with 2 young boys to bring up on my own, my heart goes out to you.
All I can say is that the best way now for the atrocities of Parents Next to be exposed publicly, is to contact Fairfax9. They do investigations with the ABC.
The next PM of Australia is the guest on Insiders today
In a drought, who gets the water, a Nuclear Power Station, or Farmers, or the people? Or, dare I say it, the Environment?
.
Many thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.
From the BK files.
As a service to the community I now announce my provision of translation services to those struggling with gobbledygook.*
Because –👇👇👇👇👇
What this last means I know not. Could mean “the old folks are doing just fine and I really deserve a holiday in Bali” or maybe “I’ll be a son and a carer”. It could also mean that the
supposedCare Providers are allowing the could be clients enough independence to die without a “package”.*
gobbledygook
/ˈɡɒb(ə)ldɪˌɡuːk/
noun
informal
noun: gobbledygook; noun: gobbledegook
language that is meaningless or is made unintelligible by excessive use of technical terms.
“reams of financial gobbledygook”
synonyms: jargon, unintelligible language, obscure language; More
gibberish, claptrap, nonsense, rubbish, balderdash, blather, blether, argle-bargle;
informalmumbo jumbo, drivel, rot, tripe, hogwash, baloney, bilge, bosh, bull, bunk, guff, eyewash, piffle, twaddle, poppycock, phooey, hooey, malarkey, dribble;
informalcobblers, codswallop, cock, stuff and nonsense, double Dutch, tosh, cack;
informalhavers;
informalgarbage, flapdoodle, blathers, wack, bushwa, applesauce;
informalbunkum, tommyrot, cod, gammon, toffee;
vulgar slangshit, bullshit, horseshit, crap, bollocks, balls;
vulgar slangcrapola;
vulgar slangbulldust
“the authority wrote him a letter full of legal gobbledygook”
************************************************************
14℃ in Newcastle with a projected top of 17℃ – mostly sunny.
☕☮
From BK’s Dawn Patrol:
Poulton was not anti-Semitic by writing a brief on whether Frydenberg has dual citizenship. He’s subject to the same rules as every other parliamentarian. He should be referred to Disputed Returns where he’ll either sink or float. Morrison needs to zip it in the interim.
Barney in Makassar @ #231 Saturday, August 3rd, 2019 – 11:19 pm
Good luck with that.
Crabbe had been going well as host of Insiders until just now with that very cheap attempt at a gotcha with Albanese who passed the test.
“In a drought, who gets the water, a Nuclear Power Station, or Farmers, or the people? Or, dare I say it, the Environment?”
Whichever is the biggest donor to one or other Coalition party.
There is a great deal of confusion over the various committees and commissions which might investigate corruption. Ample rooms for potshots, unfortunately.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/where-s-the-outrage-there-s-a-bigger-problem-than-the-lame-inquiry-into-crown-20190802-p52del.html
Albo doing well on Insiders, showing his experience and command of detail
Steve777 @ #239 Sunday, August 4th, 2019 – 1:08 am
Our biggest problem is Lyre Birds. I had no idea how destructive they were during mating season (which is now!). They not only tear massive holes in the lawns and gardens, they rip fly screen doors and windows off the house. They can even scratch glass windows with their claws or teeth (not sure which – I’ve never gotten close enough to find out!). They do far more damage here than wombats.
Oh, and as for wombats running at 40kmh. Yes, maybe they can – for a few hundred metres. Then they stop. But they also stop as soon as you shine a torch on them. Then you can shoot them 🙁
I can’t see recognition for Aboriginal people in the constitution happening in my lifetime.
But it isnt corruption. Oh no. Corruption has become impossible to prove – which is most convenient for the corrupt.
KJ @9:18AM summarising a typical ministerial answer at Question Time.
Andrew Probyn is well to the Right of the two Murdoch employees on the Insiders couch
The case for the Voice was aired on The Drum on Friday. It seems so obvious to me, but of course I’m not a young conservative male with political ambitions via the IPA.
sprocket_ @ #271 Sunday, August 4th, 2019 – 9:31 am
He struggled on the Crowngate issue. All other topics he handled well.
Voters can’t let their partisanship cloud such clear instances of compromised positions. If we want our polity to be better we must keep the bastards honest by being honest ourselves.
I do hope this is a running joke.
I will join in.
My problem is the stunning Golden Whistler that wakes me each morning with a beautiful song and fabulous display as he calls for a mate that probably doesnt exist within his range due to the large scale habitat destruction, cats and various other stresses the little blighter has somehow managed to survive. The annoying creature will no doubt die from one of these stresses having never seen or heard of a female of his species.
Farr thinks it’s all a bit of a laugh. I think he’s spent too much time as an ‘insider’.
Don’t get me started on sulpher crested cockatoos
Thoughts and prayers has got to be the most useless words after someone has gone on a shooting rampage.
For these peeps it is no longer about right and wrong… it is a about fight and win. The Right are so mobolised in this game – broad spectrum and singularly focused. Yet they still manage to accuse the left of wargames on class. And the media are giddy to get their warriors on high rotation.
Erky perky?
Wilkie correctly explains why the inquiry into Crown by the Australian Commission for Law Enforcement Integrity will not be empowered to inquire into the alleged lobbying of MPs, bureaucrats to fast-track visas for Chinese high-rollers, some of whom are as shady as they come:
https://www.abc.net.au/7.30/andrew-wilkie-calls-for-broader-inquiry-into-crown/11369526
sprocket_ @ #282 Sunday, August 4th, 2019 – 9:40 am
Agree! They’re the wombats of the air!
Didn’t he though. His reasons for voting against the parliamentary inquiry were unconvincing, one of which was how many crossbench members would have been on the inquiry committee compared to the two major parties.
Victoria @ #282 Sunday, August 4th, 2019 – 9:40 am
‘Thoughts’ is fair enough. But even that is a joke as clearly there is not enough thought about the social destruction that comes with these atrocities.
I actually don’t have much sympathy for the majority of US citizens who back politicians that protect the firearm industry.
Whenever I hear Michaelia Cash speaking I feel like I’m watching an ep of Kath n Kim.
“I can’t see recognition for Aboriginal people in the constitution happening in my lifetime.”
I can’t see it happening in the next decade or so, certainly not in 3 years. The “Liberal” right, the IPA and Murdoch (but I repeat myself) will launch an ugly scare / disinformation campaign against it. If lost, it will go the way of the Republic.
We need to start with a legislative response and bed the thing down first, but I can’t see that happening while the Coalition remains in power.
Pegasus @ #287 Sunday, August 4th, 2019 – 9:47 am
His contempt for other reps other than the establishment Lib-Lab reps is a serious flaw in his character, in my opinion.
The other day I watched a neighbourhood disagreement that ended in a serious physical altercation – between 3 kookaburras, two magpies and a sulphur crested cockatoo. The cockatoo had three mates watching from a distance screeching their approval at the top of their voices.
Simon Katich @ #280 Sunday, August 4th, 2019 – 9:37 am
No joke. Lyre birds during mating season are like bush turkeys on meth 🙁
Thank you, Malcolm Farr! You have pinned on Scott Morrison the perfect description of this Prime Minister!
Flim Flam Man.
‘Dole bludgers’
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bludgeoning-the-jobless-it-s-a-work-of-decades-20190802-p52d8r.html
Player One @ #294 Sunday, August 4th, 2019 – 9:52 am
OMG! Poor you! We have a Bush Turkey mound in the back yard and no leaf or twig is left unturned by the male in building it up to gargantuan proportions! 😯
The Insiders panel pinned Labor on it’s flim flam pre-election and post-election positions re Newstart.
Peg and Rex
All Albo did was put the Wilkie stunt motion back in the box where it belongs – the Greens and Indies would do well to reach out and negotiate first (which they often do) rather than put up these stunt motions to rile up their Twitter bots
And speaking of flim flam, The Empty Suit is dreaming. The only way the Australian Greens are going to more then double their vote in 2 years is if they stop behaving like spoiled children and start acting like the adults they claim to be.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/greens-could-see-big-increase-in-vote-like-in-germany-di-natale-says-20190802-p52d93.html