Federal election preference flows

New figures from the AEC confirm the Coalition’s share of Hanson and Palmer preferences was approaching two-thirds, a dramatic increase on past form.

We now have as much in the way of results out of the federal election as we’re ever going to, with the Australian Electoral Commission finally publishing preference flow by party data. The table below offers a summary and how it compares with the last two election. They confirm that YouGov Galaxy/Newspoll was actually too conservative in giving the Coalition 60% of preferences from One Nation and the United Australia Party, with the actual flow for both parties being nearly identical at just over 65%.

The United Australia Party preference flow to the Coalition was very substantially stronger than the 53.7% recorded by the Palmer United Party in 2013, despite its how-to-vote cards directing preferences to the Coalition on both occasions. A result is also listed for Palmer United in 2016, but it is important to read these numbers in conjunction with the column recording the relevant party’s vote share at the election, which in this case was next to zero (it only contested one lower house seat, and barely registered there). Greens preferences did nothing out of the ordinary, being slightly stronger to Labor than in 2016 and slightly weaker than in 2013.

The combined “others” flow to the Coalition rose from 50.8% to 53.6%, largely reflecting the much smaller footprint of the Nick Xenophon Team/Centre Alliance, whose preferences in 2016 split 60-40 to Labor. This also contributes to the smaller share for “others”, with both figures being closer to where they were in 2013. “Inter-Coalition” refers to where there were both Liberal and Nationals candidates in a seat, some of whose preferences will have flowed to Labor rather than each other. The “share” result in this case records the combined Coalition vote in such seats as a share of the national formal vote.

While we’re here, note the blog’s other two recent posts: Adrian Beaumont’s account of Brecon & Radnorshire by-election, and my own in-depth review of the legal challenges against the election of Josh Frydenberg in Kooyong and Gladys Liu in Chisholm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,440 comments on “Federal election preference flows”

Comments Page 5 of 29
1 … 4 5 6 … 29

  3. Boerwar says:
    Saturday, August 3, 2019 at 6:34 pm
    There were no wombats at all on the flats 50 years ago. Zip. They are a locally-invasive species and they are doing serious economic and environmental damage.
    ———————
    It’s a bit rich a Boer calling a wombat an invasive species in Australia, what?

  6. Boerwar @ #165 Saturday, August 3rd, 2019 – 7:01 pm

    The wombats are in plague proportions because they are no longer hunted for fiod, because they have invaded a new area, because they have year round high nutrition food and because we provide them with beautiful river bank digs. They have killed well over a thousand of our environmental plantings. They are a serious economic and environmental pest.

    Murder them.

  7. The preference flows – ON and to a slightly lesser extent UAP voters, while generally right wing, are also angry voters Their anger was turned against the Coalition in 2016 but against Labor in 2019. I’d like to now why. Personally I think it was because Labor made ON and UAP an issue in 2019 and reaped the inevitable backlash. Also, maybe they just didn’t like Turnbull personally in 2016.

    The ALP should try to get the lefter leaning ON/UAP voters back. I don’t know how though.

  8. Boerwar @ #184 Saturday, August 3rd, 2019 – 7:52 pm

    I note in passing that the Bludgers who host wombats know them as being destructive while those who don’t host wombats are ready with much gratuitous bullshit.

    I host wombats. Lots of wombats.

    But unlike you, we accept that if there is a temporary imbalance in wombat numbers, it is most likely our fault, not theirs.

  9. Nicholas:

    Medicare For All would put out of work a very large number of people employed by the private health insurance industry.

    Even Norway, which spends massively (and appropriately) on public health cover, is about 20% private by price to the populace.

    Australia is something like 35% private (so 65% public) and doesn’t have Norway’s ability to fund public provision vision at 80%. The much lauded Canadians are 70% public

    We should aim to:
    1 – increase public healthcare spending by about 1% of GDP (about 15B annually) which will bring us into line with comparable nations and (with appropriate spending) result in a significant increase in quality and perhaps breadth;
    2 – fund generalist dental (probably) and eyecare (possibly) from public spending;
    3 – establish Comonwalth funded comprehensive cancer centres (and perhaps cardiology centres) in medical precincts all five large cities plus Canberra (the five major city centres would have a significant research role, the Canberra centre would have even more of a research role and would run data collection) and with links into regional satellite facilities, in some cases interstate (Hobart and Luunceston would be satelllites of Melbourne, and Darwin probably a satellite of Adelaide), another reason it needs to be national. This would be high-quality spending that in addition provides state government with fiscal relief and reduction of the “blame game” and also (as a national system) militates against the various “dark forces” in state based public hospitals (e.g. NSW fiefdoms);
    4 – compel private health providers to fund outpatient radiotherapy, instead of the current ridiculous arrangement where private radiotherapy out of pocket matches the Medicare safety net threshold exactly…
    5 – publicly fund supervised exercise as day (two hour) inpatients within a proper setting (so no fly by nighters, plus multi-disciplinary treatment, thus in hospitals) including by monopsony purchase from private hospitals (which should become a profitable activity for them, appropriately so since it reduces costs and improves outcomes significantly). Exercise (both aerobic and apparently resistance) is important in cancer (for rehab, for reducing recurrence and for mitigating metastatic disease on active therapy) and presumably for cardiology. Supervised exercise is better in cancer (the results of a large French study at ESMO 2018, perhaps in colon and rectum disease, which seems to be particularly suspectible to exercise for some reason). Supervision by multi disicplinary teams (hence why hospital coordination is required) including medical oncologists (who are usually incredibly fit), oncology part-specialised GPS, physios, oncology specialised exercise physiologists, and oncology dietitians (many French trails include diet and amusingly this can get to the point of specifiying particular wines, presumably the of trial surplus get snaffled by the investigators);
    6 – find some way (or rediscover the rhwombat way!) to keep chronic infection related admissions to two days, thus reducing hospital costs (on a marginally profitable acitivity in the private sector) and improving patient QoL. The current process is: i) at admission dose broad spectrum IV antibiotics plus sample blood and urine; ii) informed guess as to what it is and so switch to infection specific IV antiobiotics (plus possibly continue broad spectrum as a back stop); iii) can take up to six days to culture from the samples (to identify the bacteria definitively) and there is a preference not to switch to oral antibiotics until identification plus resistance/sensitivity is definitive.

    This will probably result in private share being somewhere in the mid twenties as a percentage, which is about optimal for things that are highly appropriate for public funding. Getting private share down to 20% requires a very high level of public spending (which Norway and no-one else achieves, due to incredible wealth in the public sector, in turn indirectly based on enormous oil revenues being taxed properly).

    It would also be a significant increase in healthcare employment, contrary to Nicholas’s suggestion.

  11. On the Global Warming debate, the problem is that solution will not come from climate scientists. They can guide us on what needs to be done to mitigate and reduce our ongoing influence, but the actual solution, more than likely, still lies in the realm of science fiction and a completely different field of science. 🙂

  12. Barney in Makassar @ #211 Saturday, August 3rd, 2019 – 9:47 pm

    On the Global Warming debate, the problem is that solution will not come from climate scientists. They can guide us on what needs to be done to mitigate and reduce our ongoing influence, but the actual solution, more than likely, still lies in the realm of science fiction and a completely different field of science. 🙂

    The solutions to global warming are simple and well known. But until someone figures out how to make a buck from not selling fossil fuels, they will remain unimplemented.

  13. Player One says:
    Saturday, August 3, 2019 at 9:49 pm

    Barney in Makassar @ #211 Saturday, August 3rd, 2019 – 9:47 pm

    On the Global Warming debate, the problem is that solution will not come from climate scientists. They can guide us on what needs to be done to mitigate and reduce our ongoing influence, but the actual solution, more than likely, still lies in the realm of science fiction and a completely different field of science.

    The solutions to global warming are simple and well known. But until someone figures out how to make a buck from not selling fossil fuels, they will remain unimplemented.

    Really!
    If we stopped burning fossil fuels today, Global Warming would continue.

    To alleviate the impact Global Warming we need to reduce the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere so as to bring down the rate of warming.

    We don’t have the ability to that yet.

  17. imacca says:
    Saturday, August 3, 2019 at 10:09 pm

    “We don’t have the ability to that yet.”

    Interesting work going on i the field though.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08824-8

    And if someone can refine the process and make graphene??

    Yep, lots of fascinating ideas and research, but the suggestion that we have a solution, just demonstrates ignorance of what the problem is.

  18. “but the suggestion that we have a solution, just demonstrates ignorance of what the problem is.”

    All part of the toolkit. 🙂 But anything like this or some of the more way out “geoengineering” solutions suggested isn’t going to do the job..problem is already just too big.

    Large emissions reductions will reduce the rate at which the problem gets worse. Fwark, we are now well out of the range where there is going to be a good outcome 200 years down the track. Best we can hope for is maybe some kind of “least worst” outcome but that’s worth going for.

  19. imacca says:
    Saturday, August 3, 2019 at 10:32 pm

    “but the suggestion that we have a solution, just demonstrates ignorance of what the problem is.”

    All part of the toolkit. But anything like this or some of the more way out “geoengineering” solutions suggested isn’t going to do the job..problem is already just too big.

    Large emissions reductions will reduce the rate at which the problem gets worse. Fwark, we are now well out of the range where there is going to be a good outcome 200 years down the track. Best we can hope for is maybe some kind of “least worst” outcome but that’s worth going for.

    Yep, decarbonising is just the first necessary step.

  20. Barney in Makassar @ #213 Saturday, August 3rd, 2019 – 9:58 pm

    If we stopped burning fossil fuels today, Global Warming would continue.

    If we stopped burning fossil fuels today, the climate would stabilize at around 2 degrees warmer than it is today. Dangerous, but survivable.

    If we do not, we are on track for somewhere between 4 and 6 degrees warming. This is not survivable.

    Sure you can imagine all sorts of science fiction scenarios, but each one comes with a significant number of unknowns as to whether it will work at all, a significant cost, and an even more significant risk that we may end up doing more harm than good.

    By far the simplest, cheapest and least dangerous answer is simply to stop burning coal now, and stop burning other fossil fuels as soon as possible.

  22. “By far the simplest, cheapest and least dangerous answer is simply to stop burning coal now, and stop burning other fossil fuels as soon as possible.”

    How about, more practically, stopping land clearing now and start planting those 1.5 trillion trees, phase out coal and other fossil fuels ASAP (ie. absinthe being realistic globally over the next 50 years)? Then adopt a global ‘two child’ policy.

  25. “Hundred million or more to go.”

    You are out by an order of magnitude. We are talking in the trillions, not billions, not millions more trees.

    But it’s good Bonnie Scots are doing their bit.

    Ethiopia is planning on planting 4 billion. Good.

    But if this is to work, the heavy lifting has to be done by six countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Russia and the United States.

  28. Andrew_Earlwood
    says:
    Saturday, August 3, 2019 at 11:10 pm
    “Hundred million or more to go.”
    You are out by an order of magnitude. We are talking in the trillions, not billions, not millions more trees.
    _________________________________
    I’m talking about one project in one area of Scotland.

  29. If reckon the Causa Bella of the Australian environmental movement should get back to its roots: stopping land clearing and reversing it with a 200 – 400 billion tree planting plan.

  30. “I’m talking about one project in one area of Scotland.”

    Yes. Good. But see my edited post and the one following.

  31. P1,

    The 2 degrees figure is not a limit, it’s target that is mentioned in relation to where should try be by the end of the century if we take appropriate action around decarbonisation.

    The Earth will continue warming beyond 2 degrees after this, there is no magic switch to turn the warming off.

    That is why people are endeavoring to find ways to remove CO2 from the atmosphere.

    When the amount of CO2 starts declining then the rate of temperature increase should start declining. Note, this means that the temperature is still increasing, but at a slower rate.

  32. I’m shocked by the “Shut the fuck up, C@t.” post.

    Moderating this blog would send you round the twist. A little swearing from the moderator is to be expected. And the person it was aimed at can take it.

    Now I am off to find some absinthe…. I think I stashed some Becherovka somewhere. I cant watch Broad win a test (with both ball and bat) sober. If only Bancroft had hit the pegs from 3m! Hopeless sandgroper.

  38. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Sunday, August 4, 2019 at 12:45 am

    When I think of Wombats, I kind of wonder what the giant wombats the Diprotodon were like.

    An even easier target!

  39. Have to say I don’t think of wombats that often. The problem here is Bush Turkeys digging up the gardens. This week, one built up a huge mound.

  40. One billion trees, if they were planted about 4 metres apart (so about 16 sq metres per tree) would occupy an area about a quarter the size of Tasmania. 200 billion would cover Qld, NSW, Vic and Tasmania.

  42. When I think of Wombats, I kind of wonder what the giant wombats the Diprotodon were like.
    if their habits are anything like the modern version they would be like the earth moving equipment used at some of the big mines.

  43. I did not understand why there was so much objection to a Voice for the Indigenous. Now I do. Is Morrison also a member of the IPA, or just a supporter? Is the IPA terrified of losing their power?

    Aboriginal leader Noel Pearson has blasted the “child soldiers” of the Institute of Public Affairs for campaigning against an Indigenous voice to Parliament and spreading “lies” about how it would operate.

    Mr Pearson, who founded the Cape York Institute for Policy and Leadership, accused the libertarian think tank of dispatching young men to tear down the proposed voice, a major recommendation of the 2017 Uluru Statement from the Heart on reconciliation.

    Cape York leader Noel Pearson lashed opponents of the Indigenous voice at the Garma Festival in Arnhem Land.

    The IPA – which has close links with the Liberal Party and counts many MPs as members – is opposed to an Indigenous voice to Parliament, whether it is in inserted into the constitution or only in legislation.

    Its representatives – many of whom are white men in their 20s and early 30s – travelled to Canberra last week to lobby against the proposal, meeting with about two dozen Coalition MPs and distributing an as-yet-unpublished research paper on the subject.

    The proposed voice would create an elected body which would give input to Parliament but would not be able to create, amend or veto legislation.

    The IPA argues the voice would be illiberal and divisive, and furthermore that race should not be a part of the constitution. To that end it supports removing the so-called “race power” in section 51 of that document.

    In a scathing address to the Garma Festival in north-east Arnhem Land, Mr Pearson accused the think tank and conservative commentators such as News Corp columnist Andrew Bolt of acting in bad faith.

    “Our cause is being sucked into the cruel vortex of these useless conflicts between white progressives and white conservatives,” he said.

    #

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/child-soldiers-noel-pearson-blasts-institute-of-public-affairs-for-campaign-against-voice-20190803-p52dkm.html

  44. Of the six countries with the potential to plant large numbers of trees: Australia is heavily engaged in broad scale clearing, Brazil ditto. Canada and the US are losing billions of trees to bark beetles. Russia is losing millions of trees to Arctic wildfires. China?

  45. Someone mentioned on here that a wombat moves around like a slow moving mouse or words to that effect. If I ever see a mouse in my house with that build doing 40Km/h, I’m moving. Got bowled over by one once. I haven’t got a clue where s/he was going but was in one hell of a hurry to get there. Went through me like a dose of salts.

  46. The IPA is a Conservative Cult. Hence the Child(Boy) Soldiers. Modeled along the lines of ISIS, with Mind Bombs in place of real ones.

  47. Jeez England are getting desperate. They’ve brought in bouncers at Steve Smith to try and make him crumble. 😯

  48. As tree clearing is expanding at an increasing rate than it would appear that at some future time everything turns to muck.
    The various governments around the world get elected to allow people to have more than their share.
    Australia voted to allow people to continue to accumulate more than their share.
    Briefly, it would seem is correct.

  50. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Carrie Fellner exposes more as she reports that four apartment blocks at the centre of Sydney’s building standards crisis were signed off by private certifiers who have a track record of disciplinary action against them.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/serial-offenders-signed-off-on-apartment-blocks-20190803-p52div.html
    The Liberal Party, its ideological ally the IPA and Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp have done a remarkable job of pushing the false narrative of superior Liberal economic management. The Labor Party has invited submissions to its 2019 campaign review. Alan Austin, offers a solution.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/propaganda-prescription-how-australia-can-get-its-economic-mojo-back/
    “I told you so!”, says Peter Fitzsimons unloads on the stadium fiasco.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/i-promised-to-put-a-sock-in-it-but-stadiumsplurge-i-told-yers-so-20190802-p52dfb.html
    Nick O’Malley on Kevin Rudd declaring that he is delighted by the investigation into Crown casino.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/rudd-declares-he-is-delighted-by-investigation-into-crown-casino-20190803-p52dk7.html
    Alexandra Smith tells us how a split has emerged within the churches over a bill to decriminalise abortion in NSW, with the Uniting Church the first mainstream denomination to support the proposed new laws.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/churches-divided-over-bill-to-decriminalise-abortion-20190803-p52djw.html
    Two law academics explain why doctors’ rights to object to abortion should be protected.
    https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/health-and-wellness/doctors-rights-to-object-to-abortion-should-be-protected-20190802-p52dc9.html
    As question time becomes political theatre, does it still play a vital role in government asks the Canberra Times.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6308703/as-question-time-becomes-political-theatre-does-it-still-play-a-vital-role-in-government/?cs=14350
    Big miner BHP is again reviewing its membership of the Minerals Council of Australia lobby group following disagreements over environmental policy.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/aug/04/bhp-could-quit-minerals-council-after-clashes-over-climate-policy
    Tony Wright bemoans the work of decades – bludgeoning the jobless.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bludgeoning-the-jobless-it-s-a-work-of-decades-20190802-p52d8r.html
    Lawyer and Labor Party member Trevor Poulton was the victim of defamatory comments made by the Prime Minister, accusing him of anti-Semitism after writing a brief on the dual citizenship of Josh Frydenberg. Independent Australia was given a copy of a letter written by Trevor to Scott Morrison as a response to the remarks.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/trevor-poulton-responds-to-defamation-by-scott-morrison,12966
    Michael Pascoe says we shouldn’t be fooled by a teeny, tiny retail sales blip.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2019/08/02/retail-blip-foolish/
    Australia’s department store sector is in the midst of a mass extinction, and only one of the two major players is expected to survive – albeit in a drastically revamped format.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/consumer/2019/08/02/myer-david-jones-relevant/
    The Guardian reveals that the government passed over some of Australia’s most eminent cultural figures in order to appoint a mining executive to the ABC board in 2017, despite the fact that she was not recommended by an independent selection process.
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/aug/03/abc-board-secret-shortlist-of-candidates-ignored-in-favour-of-mining-executive-revealed
    Liam Mannix tells us how one scientist is trying hard to burst the on-line bubble in which the anti-vaxxers exist. All power to him!
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/anti-vaxxers-live-in-an-online-bubble-this-scientist-wants-to-burst-20190803-p52djr.html
    The acting CEO of NDIS has promised to clear a big application backlog and defended opposition to a sex therapy ruling.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/aug/03/ndis-promises-to-clear-application-backlog-and-defends-opposition-to-sex-therapy-ruling
    Dingoes have long been considered a natural pest, but perhaps it’s time we worked with them instead of against them, writes Peter Mirschin.
    https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/dingoes-save-wildlife-and-improve-stock-grazing,12967
    Michael Koziol reports that aboriginal leader Noel Pearson has blasted the “child soldiers” of the Institute of Public Affairs for campaigning against an Indigenous voice to Parliament and spreading “lies” about how it would operate.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/child-soldiers-noel-pearson-blasts-institute-of-public-affairs-for-campaign-against-voice-20190803-p52dkm.html
    Australia’s peak aged care body is calling on the government to mandate a maximum home care package waiting period of 90 days, which it says would reduce the risks to older people as well as the strain on their caregivers. There is a huge gap to overcome.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6306898/where-is-the-outrage-peak-aged-care-body-calls-for-90-day-maximum-home-care-waits/?cs=14225
    Canberra should “link arms” with the US to form a united front against China’s economic “sins”, says Obama’s assistant secretary of state.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/far-more-than-a-trade-war-obama-s-asia-adviser-sounds-ominous-warning-to-australia-on-china-20190803-p52djl.html
    Oh, another mass shooting in the US. And would you believe an AK-47 was used? So there will be a deluge of thoughts and prayers and exhortations that now is not the time to talk about gun control.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/aug/03/el-paso-shooting-texas-walmart

    Cartoon Corner

    Reg Lynch on the vilification of dole bludgers.

    From Matt Golding.






    Zanetti at Edgebaston.

    Glen Le Lievre on NewStart.

    From the US



Comments Page 5 of 29
1 … 4 5 6 … 29

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *