Federal election preference flows

New figures from the AEC confirm the Coalition’s share of Hanson and Palmer preferences was approaching two-thirds, a dramatic increase on past form.

We now have as much in the way of results out of the federal election as we’re ever going to, with the Australian Electoral Commission finally publishing preference flow by party data. The table below offers a summary and how it compares with the last two election. They confirm that YouGov Galaxy/Newspoll was actually too conservative in giving the Coalition 60% of preferences from One Nation and the United Australia Party, with the actual flow for both parties being nearly identical at just over 65%.

The United Australia Party preference flow to the Coalition was very substantially stronger than the 53.7% recorded by the Palmer United Party in 2013, despite its how-to-vote cards directing preferences to the Coalition on both occasions. A result is also listed for Palmer United in 2016, but it is important to read these numbers in conjunction with the column recording the relevant party’s vote share at the election, which in this case was next to zero (it only contested one lower house seat, and barely registered there). Greens preferences did nothing out of the ordinary, being slightly stronger to Labor than in 2016 and slightly weaker than in 2013.

The combined “others” flow to the Coalition rose from 50.8% to 53.6%, largely reflecting the much smaller footprint of the Nick Xenophon Team/Centre Alliance, whose preferences in 2016 split 60-40 to Labor. This also contributes to the smaller share for “others”, with both figures being closer to where they were in 2013. “Inter-Coalition” refers to where there were both Liberal and Nationals candidates in a seat, some of whose preferences will have flowed to Labor rather than each other. The “share” result in this case records the combined Coalition vote in such seats as a share of the national formal vote.

While we’re here, note the blog’s other two recent posts: Adrian Beaumont’s account of Brecon & Radnorshire by-election, and my own in-depth review of the legal challenges against the election of Josh Frydenberg in Kooyong and Gladys Liu in Chisholm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,440 comments on “Federal election preference flows”

  1. William Bowe @ #1336 Tuesday, August 6th, 2019 – 4:57 pm

    Essential Research’s fortnightly survey covers Newstart – voting intention holiday ongoing.
    https://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Essential-Report-050819-V2-1.pdf

    Some interesting numbers involved in that. It turns out that increasing Newstart will not be a vote loser for the government. Also interesting is how close the numbers are for both Labor and Greens voters. Even a majority of Coalition voters agree with increasing it.

    No more prevarication, no more promises to “conduct a review”. Just fucking do it.

  2. Boerwar

    I am related to a retired NSW Labor MP whose wife is Dutch. She grew up in a village between Arnhem and Nijmegen during the war, and saw the British columns arrive in 1944. (Thankfully the frontline settled down past their house, which remained intact.). They successfully sheltered some Jews in their barn cellar, despite billeting some German army officers in the house! They got on ok with the regular German army, but the SS and Gestapo were a completely different story.

  3. The Japanese religion of Bushido militarism, as has been pointed out, has the effect of killing millions who got in their way. Two thirds of Australians who died in the Pacific theatre died in Japanese captivity for example.

    And for those involved, like my family who were interned in China in the occupied European concessions – were thrilled when the atomic bomb brought an abrupt end to the war. It may seem weird, evil and even gruesome to read those thoughts today. But for people who had seen friends summarily beheaded for not bowing to Japanese soldiers, any end to that occupation was going to be cheered.

    Thankfully, the atomic bomb snuffed out that Japanese evil – as bad as Nazism and Islamic State. And ever since, Japan has been a model citizen and a leading contributor to global peace.

  4. Maybe the British fascists were different from the Dutch fascists. Churchill wasn’t taking any chances. He had Mosley locked up.

  5. Socrates
    Mum’s family billeted SS officers while hiding a jewish girl. The sheer stress of living with this minute by minute death sentence traumatized Mum for life.

  6. Adrian
    I was not suggesting the Japanese were in a fit state. That is not the question. I am suggesting that, wisely or not, they had no intention of stopping before Hiroshima. Whether Nagasaki was also needed is much more debateable.

    Also on the general question of who killed whom in WWII apart from the Germans, I recommend the book Bloodlands, which Xanthippe gave me. It is grim but fascinating, detailing all the ethnic cleansing that happened in eastern Europe at the end of the war, most killings NOT carried out by Germans or Soviets. For example Czechs killed tens of thousands of ethnic Germans when the German speaking population was expelled in 1945-46.

  7. Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2019 at 7:29 pm

    Socrates
    Mum’s family billeted SS officers while hiding a jewish girl. The sheer stress of living with this minute by minute death sentence traumatized Mum for life.

    ______________________
    Yet you have no sympathy for the children killed at Hiroshima. In fact you celebrate it.

  8. Boerwar

    Good on her but yes that must have been terrifying. As my relatives said, there was a world of difference between the SS and the Wehrmacht. Some veterans I met years ago who served in North Africa and New Guinea said the average Japanese troops were much worse than the latter. They even murdered New Guinea natives.

  9. BW

    Yes I have -I was just looking at some Bushido ideology in context..

    “So, what led to the resurgence of Bushido in the 1930s? One reason, Benesch argues, was that imperialist theories about it — propagated during the late Meiji Era by nationalist critics such as Inoue Tetsujiro — had been incorporated in school textbooks from 1910. This effectively incubated a specific version Bushido in the minds of an entire generation, one that would provide an answer to the coming political problems.

    As the ’30s dawned, a mood of national uncertainty descended on the country. It followed the start of the Great Depression and the Manchurian Incident of 1931, the beginning of Japan’s drawn out and ever-expanding wars in China. Alongside this change in mood, nationalist sentiments took hold, fueled by the U.S. Immigration Act of 1924, which banned all Asian immigrants to the U.S.; the perceived slights of the Naval Limitation Treaties; and the 1932 Lytton Report, condemning Japan’s machinations in Manchuria. Government propagandists and intellectuals began turning to Bushido for direction.
    …..

    However, the most extraordinary development related to Bushido during this decade lay in the reemergence of “Hagakure,” a previously obscure collection of 18th-century samurai maxims and anecdotes. When earlier theorists had written of the samurai code, they mostly concentrated on the writings of radical scholar Yoshida Shoin and Confucian scholar Yamaga Soko.

    “Hagakure” is a collection of samurai “wisdom” spoken by provincial clerk Yamamoto Tsunetomo for the benefit of the retainers in the local clan. Opening with the line, “The way of the samurai lies in death” and promoting the idea that a samurai must be prepared to die for his lord, “Hagakure” would become a kind of bible for the Imperial Japanese Army and Navy. Before the ’30s, it had never been printed in full, but that changed as it was drawn into more nationalist interpretations of Bushido in the prewar period.

    In 1938, a laudatory commentary on the “Hagakure” was published by Jiro Matsunami and, in 1940, the eminent philosopher Tetsuro Watsuji published an abridged version for soldiers to take to war.

    What influence did books about Bushido and the “Hagakure” have on Japan’s soldiers in World War II? Prewar theorists argued that surrender to any enemy was unforgiveable under the samurai code. But, during the war itself, it was unclear whether soldiers refused to surrender because they actually believed in “Bushido” or, rather, feared being killed by the Americans or their own side for waving a white flag. Imperial Bushido also helped justify the brutal treatment meted out to Allied prisoners-of-war.

    But the ideology played another, perhaps more serious, role in WWII: it seemed to fuel Japan’s determination to fight to the very last man and woman. This ferocious doggedness would influence the Allies’ decision to drop nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/culture/2016/07/23/books/bushido-samurai-code-goes-war/#.XUlI9ox_WfA

  10. Greensborough Growler @ #1361 Tuesday, August 6th, 2019 – 7:26 pm

    adrian @ #1356 Tuesday, August 6th, 2019 – 7:21 pm

    The idea that Japan was in a fit state to continue the war prior to Hiroshima, is far from settled among historians.

    https://www.thenation.com/article/why-the-us-really-bombed-hiroshima/

    if you’re contention is the Japanese went to gun fight armed with a knife, then frankly no one gives a damn.

    If you’re too stupid to know the difference between your and you’re, I don’t give a damn.

    Also too stupid to read or comprehend the article that I linked to. And you call others cretins!

  11. Socrates @ #1363 Tuesday, August 6th, 2019 – 7:29 pm

    Adrian
    I was not suggesting the Japanese were in a fit state. That is not the question. I am suggesting that, wisely or not, they had no intention of stopping before Hiroshima. Whether Nagasaki was also needed is much more debateable.

    Also on the general question of who killed whom in WWII apart from the Germans, I recommend the book Bloodlands, which Xanthippe gave me. It is grim but fascinating, detailing all the ethnic cleansing that happened in eastern Europe at the end of the war, most killings NOT carried out by Germans or Soviets. For example Czechs killed tens of thousands of ethnic Germans when the German speaking population was expelled in 1945-46.

    Did you read the article to which I linked?

  12. adrian @ #1368 Tuesday, August 6th, 2019 – 7:41 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1361 Tuesday, August 6th, 2019 – 7:26 pm

    adrian @ #1356 Tuesday, August 6th, 2019 – 7:21 pm

    The idea that Japan was in a fit state to continue the war prior to Hiroshima, is far from settled among historians.

    https://www.thenation.com/article/why-the-us-really-bombed-hiroshima/

    if you’re contention is the Japanese went to gun fight armed with a knife, then frankly no one gives a damn.

    If you’re too stupid to know the difference between your and you’re, I don’t give a damn.

    Also too stupid to read or comprehend the article that I linked to. And you call others cretins!

    Boo!

  13. From The Journal of Historical Review, May-June 1997 (Vol. 16, No. 3), pages 4-11.

    https://www.ihr.org/jhr/v16/v16n3p-4_Weber.html

    A Beaten Country

    Apart from the moral questions involved, were the atomic bombings militarily necessary? By any rational yardstick, they were not. Japan already had been defeated militarily by June 1945. Almost nothing was left of the once mighty Imperial Navy, and Japan’s air force had been all but totally destroyed. Against only token opposition, American war planes ranged at will over the country, and US bombers rained down devastation on her cities, steadily reducing them to rubble.

    What was left of Japan’s factories and workshops struggled fitfully to turn out weapons and other goods from inadequate raw materials. (Oil supplies had not been available since April.) By July about a quarter of all the houses in Japan had been destroyed, and her transportation system was near collapse. Food had become so scarce that most Japanese were subsisting on a sub-starvation diet.

  14. Spr
    Bushido.
    One of my father’s (with his mate) tasks on the Burma Railroad was filling a water tank from a river some way from the Camp. They were not guarded.
    Later in the day a truck would arrive and take them and the tank back to the Camp.
    When the filled the tank they foraged for bush tucker in the jungle.
    One day, while they were foraging, they were ‘captured’ by a company marching up country.
    After some ferocious treatment they were marched to the Camp. They thought for sure that they were going to be the major entertainment at a head chopping do.

    When they arrived the Camp Commandment gave the Japanese Company Commander a public belting for interfering with his prisoners.
    He gave Dad and his Oppo a packet of smokes each.
    Honour thus being restored the daily beatings and deaths at the Camp continued as before.

  15. adrian
    Apology accepted. Applying Western standards to Japanese ability to fight on does not pass the pub test.
    I suggest you read up on the Okinawa Campaign for a more realistic view of what was going to happen

  16. adrian, you seem to be trying to make the case that it didn’t make any sense for the Japanese to continue fighting.

    I don’t believe it had anything to do with whether it made any sense. The Japanese military were more than keen to continue fighting, whatever the cost, whatever the outcome.

    The surrender itself almost didn’t happen, even after Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ky%C5%ABj%C5%8D_incident

  17. adrian:

    [‘If you’re too stupid to know the difference between your and you’re, I don’t give a damn.’]

    It does nothing to enhance your argument to remonstrate with posters for their spelling, grammar, syntax, punctuation. Only lawyers & pedants are in interested in same, and even some of them are slackers. As long as one can comprehend the argument of others, that’s sufficient.

  18. Jackol, I am just listening to the experts – you know, actual historians. Not wikipedia.

    Try reading the link I provided. There are many other historians who have come to the same conclusion, irrespective of the pub test. Whatever that may be.

  19. mundo:

    [‘Just watched PJK on the telly. I know why Albo and Bill disappoint me.’]

    I heard on RN today (“Big Ideas”) that Keating privately conceded that Shorten wouldn’t prevail. The current political players, from both sides of the divide, pale relative to Hawke, Keating.

  20. So this happened in WA parliament today. Well done.

    Terminally ill Western Australians would be able to legally end their lives under proposed laws to be introduced to State Parliament by the McGowan Government.

    If passed, the legislation would make WA the second state in Australia to legalise euthanasia, after Victoria in 2017.

    The bill, which will be introduced today, is far from guaranteed to pass Parliament and is set for intense debate, with MPs to be given a conscience vote.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-06/voluntary-assisted-dying-bill-introduced-to-wa-parliament/11386512

  21. Adrian

    Thanks I just read the article. Interesting. No argument the Japanese were effectively beaten but I had not read before that they intended to surrender. I do not doubt that there was politics in the decision to use the bombs.

    I do not suggest that two wrongs make a right, but I still wonder if the deaths from the atomic bomb were any worse than the alternatives. As the article says, more Japanese civilians died in the fire bombing of Tokyo.

  22. BW

    It’s remarkable that any of us are here to chew the polling and political fat.

    My grandfather for example had a job with the Shanghai Water Board, which in part involved collecting samples from sewerage farms and taking them back to the lab. He was sometimes subject to a Japanese game where soldiers would stop him, and tell him to drink the samples. He would refuse, and they would point guns at his head and scream at him to drink it. When he said no, it was his job to take the samples back – they would laugh, slap him on the back and send him on his way.

    He lived to escape and tell the tale, unlike many others.

  23. Anyone who believes that the US dropped two nuclear devices on Japan to end the war against Japan is naive in the extreme. There were many motives, but that was not one of the them. Methinks their prime motive was to establish a post war hegemony over the USSR. There were numerous options available to the Americans but they went straight to the most drastic one. They could have established a blockade. Japan had less than two weeks of food and fuel reserves. The problematic issue behind continued Japanese resistance was the post war status of their emperor. They were worried that he would be over thrown. Solution? Make the concession that he could continue and Japanese resistance would have been confined to the fanatic element. This is exactly what the US ended up doing, but only after using the bomb.
    The Americans had cracked the Japanese codes and for months and were privy to their messages. They well knew that the Japanese had approached the USSR to act as intermediaries in a peace settlement, but chose to ignore it. There are so many more arguments to make, but I’m not going on with them because I don’t have time but… If was good enough for MacArthur, Eisenhower and Leahey to be against the decision to use the bomb. it’s good enough for me.

  24. sprocket_ @ #1385 Tuesday, August 6th, 2019 – 8:32 pm

    BW

    It’s remarkable that any of us are here to chew the polling and political fat.

    My grandfather for example had a job with the Shanghai Water Board, which in part involved collecting samples from sewerage farms and taking them back to the lab. He was sometimes subject to a Japanese game where soldiers would stop him, and tell him to drink the samples. He would refuse, and they would point guns at his head and scream at him to drink it. When he said no, it was his job to take the samples back – they would laugh, slap him on the back and send him on his way.

    He lived to escape and tell the tale, unlike many others.

    If you really want to despair, look up Unit 731 and other members of the “Epidemic Prevention and Water Purification Department”. Note the US response.

  25. clem attlee @ #1386 Tuesday, August 6th, 2019 – 8:42 pm

    Anyone who believes that the US dropped two nuclear devices on Japan to end the war against Japan is naive in the extreme. There were many motives, but that was not one of the them. Methinks their prime motive was to establish a post war hegemony over the USSR. There were numerous options available to the Americans but they went straight to the most drastic one. They could have established a blockade. Japan had less than two weeks of food and fuel reserves. The problematic issue behind continued Japanese resistance was the post war status of their emperor. They were worried that he would be over thrown. Solution? Make the concession that he could continue and Japanese resistance would have been confined to the fanatic element. This is exactly what the US ended up doing, but only after using the bomb.
    The Americans had cracked the Japanese codes and for months and were privy to their messages. They well knew that the Japanese had approached the USSR to act as intermediaries in a peace settlement, but chose to ignore it. There are so many more arguments to make, but I’m not going on with them because I don’t have time but… If was good enough for MacArthur, Eisenhower and Leahey to be against the decision to use the bomb. it’s good enough for me.

    Sure, the moon landing didn’t happen either.


  26. mundo says:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2019 at 4:56 pm

    It’s all happening now, rolling back super, nuclear power…er hello, Labor party….hello…are you there?……..hello…..

    While the greens campaign against labor for the Liberals, they ask, why is labor not campaigning for the policies the impotent Greens profess to support in the noble irrelevant writings.

  27. Boer, everything I wrote in on the historical record. The crack pots inhabitant the yes argument. Ha, ha you are even at odds with MacArthur, lol!

  28. Rex Douglas
    Those that vote one green and 2 labor clearly have not worked out they are voting for a anti Labor party. That the word Green is a smoke screen to hide the fact.
    That the word Green has little to do with the environment or the words secretly produced for their website.

  29. Seems like Greens are campaigning for things that the majority of Australians, even LNP voters, support, according to the poll from WB above.

    Increase Newstart, end Robodebt amongst those who even know about it, and it seems those on lower income are more supportive. Also a big majority thought that spending $4B /yr on Newstart was a better priority than $12B /yr tax cuts for the highest income earners. Even a majority of Coalition voters.

  30. Yep IHR is the organisation that offered $50,000 to anyone who could prove that the holocaust occurred. Weber, Adrian’s “expert” is a leading neo-Nazi with dodgy qualifications in history

  31. I love this snippet of psychopathic thinking…

    There were numerous options available to the Americans but they went straight to the most drastic one. They could have established a blockade. Japan had less than two weeks of food and fuel reserves.

    Why kill 160,000 people quickly with a couple of bombs (and then end the killing), when you can slaughter millions (plus a million or so of your own soldiers) by slowly starving your enemy to death over the next couple of years?

    There are some twisted, I’d say outright psychopathic numpties here who’d rather kill millions than save all of their lives (including a million or so from your own side) just so said idiots can feel all pious about their homicidal ideas of what’s supposedly “moral”.

    This kind if thinking ends with smug insanity in all directions: from anti-vaxing hysteria, to 2nd Amendment gun nuts who see mass shootings as the noble price of “freedom”, to Global Warming legislation sacrificed because it wasn’t perfect enough, to the stillbirth of the Malaysian Solution, to the loss of a working Republic in 1998 in favour of a fairy tale polity that will never happen.

    All in the name of purity.

    Tell the millions of Japanese who *weren’t* killed by starvation, flamethrowers, bullets, bombs, high explosive artillery shells or disease because the war had ended in August 1945, rather than 1946 or 1947 that (if only they’d known!) it would have been far better for them to have died gruesome deaths so that nuclear proliferation might – just might – have been delayed 6 months.

  32. There is nothing like the nuclear bombings to bring out the most hysterical of commentary. The Tokyo fire bombings killed as many and caused more damage than Hiroshima. But they were conventional warfare and didn’t get Japan to surrender so they don’t whip up the loons like the nuclear activists.

  33. adrian
    Perhaps if you read wikipedia you would have noticed that you are an uncritical spokesman for an anti-Semitic, Holocaust denying group.

    “The Institute for Historical Review (IHR), founded in 1978, is an organization based in California, United States, best known for publishing articles and books promoting Holocaust denial. It is considered by many scholars to be central to the international Holocaust denial movement. IHR promotes antisemitic viewpoints, and has links to neo-Nazi organizations.”

    Congratulations!! Keep up the good work. Add that to your credentials.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *