Federal election preference flows

New figures from the AEC confirm the Coalition’s share of Hanson and Palmer preferences was approaching two-thirds, a dramatic increase on past form.

We now have as much in the way of results out of the federal election as we’re ever going to, with the Australian Electoral Commission finally publishing preference flow by party data. The table below offers a summary and how it compares with the last two election. They confirm that YouGov Galaxy/Newspoll was actually too conservative in giving the Coalition 60% of preferences from One Nation and the United Australia Party, with the actual flow for both parties being nearly identical at just over 65%.

The United Australia Party preference flow to the Coalition was very substantially stronger than the 53.7% recorded by the Palmer United Party in 2013, despite its how-to-vote cards directing preferences to the Coalition on both occasions. A result is also listed for Palmer United in 2016, but it is important to read these numbers in conjunction with the column recording the relevant party’s vote share at the election, which in this case was next to zero (it only contested one lower house seat, and barely registered there). Greens preferences did nothing out of the ordinary, being slightly stronger to Labor than in 2016 and slightly weaker than in 2013.

The combined “others” flow to the Coalition rose from 50.8% to 53.6%, largely reflecting the much smaller footprint of the Nick Xenophon Team/Centre Alliance, whose preferences in 2016 split 60-40 to Labor. This also contributes to the smaller share for “others”, with both figures being closer to where they were in 2013. “Inter-Coalition” refers to where there were both Liberal and Nationals candidates in a seat, some of whose preferences will have flowed to Labor rather than each other. The “share” result in this case records the combined Coalition vote in such seats as a share of the national formal vote.

While we’re here, note the blog’s other two recent posts: Adrian Beaumont’s account of Brecon & Radnorshire by-election, and my own in-depth review of the legal challenges against the election of Josh Frydenberg in Kooyong and Gladys Liu in Chisholm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,440 comments on “Federal election preference flows”

  1. More division re Setka

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/trades-hall-head-defies-union-leadership-chants-john-setka-is-here-to-stay-20190806-p52eer.html

    Prominent union leader Luke Hilakari has put further pressure on Labor and the unions by offering full-throated support to controversial unionist John Setka as the Morrison government proposes new laws to crack down on unions.

    Mr Hilakari, secretary of Victoria’s Trades Hall Council was filmed last week leading a chant of hundreds of union activists last week with the words, “John Setka, here to stay”.

    The chant, at a closed doors meeting at Melbourne’s Trades Hall on July 30, comes a little over a month after Mr Setka was convicted of harassing his wife, Emma Walters, and breaching a court order.

    Mr Hilakari is a member of the executive of the ACTU, whose leader, Sally McManus, has called for Mr Setka to stand down from the union movement.

  2. Boerwar
    says:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2019 at 5:21 pm
    I can’t see a problem with celebrating the end of the murder of 10000 civilians a day.
    __________________________________________
    You’re not celebrating the Surrender of Japan. You’re celebrating the death of thousands of innocent people as some game you are playing on here being a contrarian on provocative topics.

  3. nath
    It was not just the IJA. It was a sustained national effort over a period of eight years.
    Focusing on Hiroshima is the way this same nation avoids national accountability for the deaths of 10,000 civilians a day over eight years.
    Fuck that for sick joke.

  4. Boerwar
    says:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2019 at 5:31 pm
    nath
    You have been sucked in good and proper.
    I bet you cheer when Japanese Ministers visit the Yasukuni Shrine..
    _________________________
    Not really. I lost distant family members, great uncles, to the Japanese Army. I still don’t cheer what happened at Hiroshima. Whether it was necessary or not, that is a matter for historians to debate. But even if it was necessary to achieve the Japanese surrender I will still not cheer it.

  5. Boerwar @ #1303 Tuesday, August 6th, 2019 – 5:29 pm

    Focusing on Hiroshima is the way this same nation avoids national accountability for the deaths of 10,000 civilians a day over eight years

    Come on now, “10,000 civilians a day over eight years” is ~29 million, which appears to account for essentially all of the “civilian deaths due to military activity and crimes against humanity” that occurred in WW2. You can’t credibly put all of that at Japan’s feet.

    The reality is that all participants in WW2 did shitty things. Including rapes, massacres, and deliberately targeting civilian populations. When you firebomb a major city the civilians that die are targets, not “collateral damage”.

    Which doesn’t make any of WW2’s atrocities right or okay. But it wasn’t just Japan.

  6. The limitation of these anecdotes about Newstart is that for every one of this group who is able to get a job there are several who cannot because the jobs just are not there. Only the federal government can ensure that involuntary unemployment is eradicated.

  7. Ben Davison
    @ClubeGaffer

    There’s a wages crisis.
    Morrison attacks unions
    There’s a poverty crisis.
    Morrison attacks the unemployed
    There’s an environmental crisis.
    Morrison attacks environmentalists
    There’s a crisis of corruption in our democracy.
    Morrison attacks journalists
    See the pattern?

  8. Even if Hiroshima shortened the war by a single day it is worth celebrating.
    Inter alia it saved the mass daily rapes of thousands of captive women.

  9. Nicholas @ #1308 Tuesday, August 6th, 2019 – 5:42 pm

    The limitation of these anecdotes about Newstart is that for every one of this group who is able to get a job there are several who cannot because the jobs just are not there. Only the federal government can ensure that involuntary unemployment is eradicated.

    Where is the evidence that it’s involuntary?

  10. I am more tha happy go celebrate the anniversary of Hiroshima Day.
    It helped put an end to the deaths of ten thousand civilians a day.
    Good stuff!

    This is an utterly ghoulish comment.

  11. ar
    FMD!
    You want to argue the toss about whether the Japanese War killed 25 million or 30 million people!
    Your moral equivalence is pathetic.
    The Japanese treatment of conquered populations was far worse than that of the Allies.
    The irony is that Hiroshima probably saved millions of Japanese civilians – going on the Okinawa experience.

  12. The true ghouls here are the Kool Aid clan who ignore the daily rapes, the daily tortures, the daily starvations, the Sandakan massacres, the 10,000 civilians a day who were dying, and who insist on wringing their hands about Hiroshima.
    Mealy mouthed hypocrites.

  13. “I can’t see a problem with celebrating the end of the murder of 10000 civilians a day.”

    I doubt the Japanese were in any position to still be murdering 1000 civilians a day by the time Hiroshima happened.

    Hiroshima is remembered because it was a nuclear attack and something we should be especially be vigilant in preventing any more of. It is literally a threat to our species.

  14. The Japanese failure to sincerely satisfy the victims of ww2 is a genuine topic of discussion that is not advanced by BW’s attitude towards Hiroshima.

    I also note that another nation that seems unable to deal with its collaboration with another Axis power:

    The above cannot be viewed as unrelated to the consistent Dutch refusal to admit the disinterest of the Dutch wartime government and Queen Wilhelmina in exile in London regarding the fate of Dutch Jews. The same goes for the massive collaboration of Dutch bureaucracy with the Germans in the occupied Netherlands…. Rabbi Cooper also wrote that it had been brought to his attention “that the Netherlands has neither admitted the negligence of its World War II government and the collaboration of the bureaucracy with German occupiers, nor offered any apologies. I believe the Netherlands is the only occupied country during the war where this is the case.”

    https://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Op-Ed-Contributors/The-Netherlands-A-country-which-refuses-to-admit-its-guilt-toward-the-Jews-351234

  15. The Boer’s engaging in a bit of historical revisionism to substantiate his tired dogma.

    Nath’s right, and only a dead set moron, climate change denying dead shit, would buy the Boer’s fallacy strewn view of history.

  16. Big A Adrian @ #1318 Tuesday, August 6th, 2019 – 6:18 pm

    “I can’t see a problem with celebrating the end of the murder of 10000 civilians a day.”

    I doubt the Japanese were in any position to still be murdering 1000 civilians a day by the time Hiroshima happened.

    Hiroshima is remembered because it was a nuclear attack and something we should be especially be vigilant in preventing any more of. It is literally a threat to our species.

    Past performance is a pretty good indicator of future results in this instance.

    The Nuclear attacks on Japan are remembered because they ended WW2

  17. adrian @ #1322 Tuesday, August 6th, 2019 – 6:22 pm

    The Boer’s engaging in a bit of historical revisionism to substantiate his tired dogma.

    Nath’s right, and only a dead set moron, climate change denying dead shit, would buy the Boer’s fallacy strewn view of history.

    You really have problems outside your personal unhinged obsessions don’t you?

  18. And if there’s one country more than any others that needs to emulate the Japanese model, to learn the value of an apology, it’s the Netherlands.

    By now, almost all the European countries that were occupied by the Germans during World War II have admitted to their collaboration with the Nazi regime. Most have apologized, including, most recently, Luxembourg. The one major exception is the Netherlands,

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/its-time-for-the-netherlands-to-apologize-1438196083

  19. “The Nuclear attacks on Japan are remembered because they ended WW2”

    a myrh IMO. The Soviet invasion of Manhukuo was far more influential in ending the war.

    Others may disagree, but for me Hiroshima is worth commemorating because it ushered in a terrifying new era of nuclear threat, which is literally a threat to our species. It has nothing to do with apologising for Japan’s crimes.

  20. The point about Japan in WW2 was, as mentioned above, Japan was in no state to continue the slaughter, as they were on the brink of collapse by the time the bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

    Anybody who has been to the memorials and museums in those cities, and seen a glimpse of the reality of what happened, would not be so callous in their view of history.

  21. I was once talking to a war veteran that went to Japan after the bombs, and he said to me that while he hated the Japanese for how they behaved during the war but what he saw in those cities should never be allowed to happen again.

  22. At exactly fifteen minutes past eight in the morning on August 6, 1945, Japanese time, at the moment when the atomic bomb flashed above Hiroshima, Miss Toshiko Sasaki, a clerk in the personnel department of the East Asia Tin Works, had just sat down at her place in the plant office and was turning her head to speak to the girl at the next desk.

    So begins John Hersey’s Hiroshima, following the lives of six survivors from the day the bomb was dropped.

    It was written for The New Yorker and planned to run over four issues, but was published as one read in one issue, without any of the usual content, and with a cover giving no clue as to the contents. It was subsequently published in book form.

    It is available on-line.

  23. nath says:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2019 at 6:19 pm

    For the vast majority of Dutch the choice was cooperate with the Germans or die. The whole country was starved.

    The defeat of Japan through the dropping of the Nuclear Bombs is well worth celebrating – an evil regime was destroyed and Japan is a peaceful ally and large economic power and millions of casualties were avoided.

  24. I don’t buy the theory the Japanese were close to surrendering, they would have fought to the last, we get a hint of this in their refusal to apology for their actions during the war and in China during the 1930s.

  25. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2019 at 6:43 pm

    My Nana refused to eat rice or Asian food until she died in 1988 “because of what they did to our boys”. Anyone who doesn’t know why she said that needs to do some reading.

    Not nearly enough of the Japanese leadership were prosecuted for their war crimes.

  26. The All Ords was down 2.45% today.

    Let’s keep things in perspective though, year to date it’s up 14.66%. The Accumulation Index (which factors dividends as well as share prices into it) was also down 2.45%, however it’s up 17.04% since December 31, 2018.

    Just for perspective’s sake.

    And to illustrate the point even better, since the Index was first set on December 31, 1979, the following events have occurred.

    Recession of 1982/3;
    The crash of 1987;
    The Asian meltdown of 1989;
    Gulf War Mk I, 1991
    Another recession in 1992;
    The Dot Com bubble bursting 2000/1;
    September 11, 2001
    Iraq War Mk II, 2003 to the present;
    GFC, 2008;
    Brexit, 2016;
    Trump becomes POTUS, 2016.

    Throughout all of these events, the All Ordinaries Index (prices only) is up 6.55% p.a. as of today’s close. The All Ordinaries Accumulation Index (price plus dividends) is up 11.23% p.a.

    Just to keep things in perspective and why you should always invest for the LONG term. And by long term, I mean an absolute minimum of 10 years. 20, 30 or even 50 years is a lot better time frame though.

    Remember that old saying, “Time is money”? This is what that saying means to the smart money people.

    Keep calm. Do not panic.

  27. Interesting survey, not surprised many people don’t know what the rate is and that is why I reckon a rise wouldn’t hurt the government politically as much as some people think it might.

  28. Big A Adrian says:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2019 at 6:37 pm

    “a myrh IMO. The Soviet invasion of Manhukuo was far more influential in ending the war.”

    This is utter tripe without any historical evidence to support the claim. It is made up by anti-Nuclear Campaigners in order to delegitimize the use of the nuclear bombs.

  29. The U.S. attack on Hiroshima on Aug. 6, 1945, killed 140,000 people. The bomb dropped three days later on Nagasaki killed another 70,000 before Japan’s surrender ended World War II.

    You forgot this bit: “… and then the war ended, with Japan remaining at peace and enjoying prosperity ever since.”

    I suppose you’re arguing that it would have been far better for the war to go on, with millions more – mostly Japanese civilians – bombed, burned, shot, bayoneted, and starved by the Allies, or murdered by they’re own side, just so we could avoid using The Bomb.

    There certainly are some screwed-up mentalities around here.

  30. I hold no brief for the Netherland’s failure to apologize for its treatment of Dutch Jewry in World War 2.
    It has only very recently been dragged kicking and streaming to paying compensation for maasacres conducted by the KNIL in the NEI.

  31. The refusal of the parliamentary Liberals to countenance The Voice shows a lack of respect for the Indigenous Nations. We need to change this. We cannot call ourselves a multicultural society until everyone is accepted.

  32. AR
    Putting aside pointless debates about who was more moral, I think Boerwar’s claim about civilian deaths caused by the Japanese army in WWII is broadly correct. The Sino Japanese war (1937-45) he referred to started two years earlier and the early death toll from events like the rape of Nanking was horrific. The total civilian death toll was a lot more than the deaths reported for WWII (1939-45).
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties

    Japan got off pretty lightly reputationally after the war. Their troops probably killed more civilians than the Germans including large scale massacres in Korea, Philippines, Vietnam and Singapore as well as China. Of course this does not count the huge toll from the holocaust and Nazi death squads in occupied countries.

    Also while I do not condone nuclear weapons, I have not read any evidence the Japanese intended to surrender before the bombs. Their troops in China and Luzon were still killing thousands per day right up to the ceasefire, just as Boerwar said.

  33. Bucephalus says:
    My Nana refused to eat rice or Asian food until she died in 1988 “because of what they did to our boys”. Anyone who doesn’t know why she said that needs to do some reading.

    Not nearly enough of the Japanese leadership were prosecuted for their war crimes.
    ——————————————
    Its a common misconception by many people that all Asians liked or supported the Japanese, when in reality most of them didn’t like them in the slightest.

    The Chinese and Koreans hate them with a passion and I’m not sure if the view among others is any less hostile. Asian are just as divided as the Europeans are.

  34. Today was, mostly.

    Uncertainty and doubt is not the same as insecurity. There is no security in certainty. If you’re not ready to doubt then you’re not ready to think. And, sombre reflection is nothing to celebrate.

    Tomorrow is remorseless.

  35. lizzie @ #1343 Tuesday, August 6th, 2019 – 7:04 pm

    The refusal of the parliamentary Liberals to countenance The Voice shows a lack of respect for the Indigenous Nations. We need to change this. We cannot call ourselves a multicultural society until everyone is accepted.

    We’ll change this when the Liberal National parties are good and ready and not before.
    Unless the opposition and others can bring stinging effective pressure to bear.
    But I can’t see that happening since Labor rolled over so Scrott can rub it’s tummy.
    Albo fights tories only in his dreams now.
    And only then with a feather duster and a Batman mask.

  36. nath
    A couple of months after the the fall of Holland the Dutch fascists were holding a large open air celebration. To complement this, the Germans flew a formation of german bombers low over the picnic. The fascists cheered, just as Mosley’s mob would have done in the UK.
    For the nonce, various members of my extended Dutch family suffered terribly during the Nazi occupation.

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