Federal election preference flows

New figures from the AEC confirm the Coalition’s share of Hanson and Palmer preferences was approaching two-thirds, a dramatic increase on past form.

We now have as much in the way of results out of the federal election as we’re ever going to, with the Australian Electoral Commission finally publishing preference flow by party data. The table below offers a summary and how it compares with the last two election. They confirm that YouGov Galaxy/Newspoll was actually too conservative in giving the Coalition 60% of preferences from One Nation and the United Australia Party, with the actual flow for both parties being nearly identical at just over 65%.

The United Australia Party preference flow to the Coalition was very substantially stronger than the 53.7% recorded by the Palmer United Party in 2013, despite its how-to-vote cards directing preferences to the Coalition on both occasions. A result is also listed for Palmer United in 2016, but it is important to read these numbers in conjunction with the column recording the relevant party’s vote share at the election, which in this case was next to zero (it only contested one lower house seat, and barely registered there). Greens preferences did nothing out of the ordinary, being slightly stronger to Labor than in 2016 and slightly weaker than in 2013.

The combined “others” flow to the Coalition rose from 50.8% to 53.6%, largely reflecting the much smaller footprint of the Nick Xenophon Team/Centre Alliance, whose preferences in 2016 split 60-40 to Labor. This also contributes to the smaller share for “others”, with both figures being closer to where they were in 2013. “Inter-Coalition” refers to where there were both Liberal and Nationals candidates in a seat, some of whose preferences will have flowed to Labor rather than each other. The “share” result in this case records the combined Coalition vote in such seats as a share of the national formal vote.

While we’re here, note the blog’s other two recent posts: Adrian Beaumont’s account of Brecon & Radnorshire by-election, and my own in-depth review of the legal challenges against the election of Josh Frydenberg in Kooyong and Gladys Liu in Chisholm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,440 comments on “Federal election preference flows”

  1. Interesting critique by Erik Jensen on RN’s “Big Ideas” today, the essence of which is that Morrison has always been sure of himself, exuding confidence whereas Shorten, due primarily to having a relatively difficult childhood, hasn’t… And, this, according to Jensen, goes a long way to account for the election result. There is, of course, a lot more to Jensen’s assessment, but that’s the crux of it.

  2. Thanks, GG. He doesn’t want to go to $1 M, he only wants to go to ~$600k. So, he will have about 2/3 of the money required. He has no loans and a clean credit record. Anyway, thanks for the info. 🙂

  3. Re Mavis @3:25.
    I caught some of Eric Jensen’s talk. Very interesting. The other major point he made was that Labor’s message was complex and heavy with policy, compared to the simplicity of Morrison’s message. He suggestd that Shorten would likely have won against Morrison.

    He raised the question of whether Australia canever have another “policy” election.

    One thing which I think he missed (although I didn’t hear the whole talk) was the impact of heavy bias in much of the mainstream media, especially its focus on tearing down Bill Shorten.

  4. nath

    When it comes to Newstart some PBers will not accept facts but resort
    to anecdotes to rationalise their uninformed opinions.

    The irony is these same PBers deride anyone else as stupid, etc if they don’t fall in line with their worldview and don’t uncritically hail Labor as the one and only great party entitled to be in government.

    It has been forever thus here in this alternative universe.

  5. Mavis
    In an i/view , just before the election, Chloe Shorten said that Bill is actually very shy. I had always thought that so wasn’t surprised. It explains a lot – especially his way of not invading personal space on first meeting people as Morrison does.

  6. Cat,

    Sorry, I misunderstood the scenario.

    FHB buying an established property for $600k they would be up for around $2k in expenses.

    It’s a good LVR and if all you say is correct then he’d get a pretty good rate provided he can service the loan.

  7. Huh. I had to write the date on some broth just now. When did we stop remembering Hiroshima Day? (And Nagasaki Day in three days.) As a kid I recall it was at least a noteworthy side note to the news.

  8. Erik Jensen. The Prosperity Gospel: How Scott Morrison won and Bill Shorten lost (Quarterly essay ; June 2019)

    https://www.quarterlyessay.com.au/essay/2019/06/the-prosperity-gospel

    Promo

    What went wrong for Labor and how did Scott Morrison achieve his remarkable victory? In this dazzling report from the campaign trail, Erik Jensen homes in on the insecurities that drive Bill Shorten and the certainties that helped Scott Morrison win. He considers how each man reflects, challenges and comforts the national character.

    Who are Morrison’s “quiet Australians”? What did Shorten Labor fail to see? And will fear always trump hope in politics? The Prosperity Gospel sheds new light on the politics of a divided nation.

  9. The prosperity Gospel only works if there is prosperity.

    Once the economic cycle turns then these feel good wacky t0bbaccy cool aid solutions tend to dissolve before your eyes.

  10. John Lyons @TheLyonsDen
    ·
    2h
    AFP RAIDS: Happening soon: Will shortly reveal new information regarding the AFP raids this year. Will publish on ABC online as well as to @PatsKarvelas on News Channel at 4pm today.

  11. ACOSS welcomes social security commission bill and single parent review

    https://www.acoss.org.au/media_release/acoss-welcomes-social-security-commission-bill-and-single-parent-review/

    Monday August 20, 2018: Two private members bills to reduce poverty and inequality were introduced into Parliament today.

    Cathy McGowan introduced a bill to establish a social security commission, which has long been ACOSS policy. Andrew Wilkie introduced a bill to review the impact of removing Parenting Payment Single from single parents when their youngest child has turned eight, which data suggest has contributed to an increase in the rate of child poverty.
    :::
    “Newstart and Youth Allowance are indexed to CPI only, and, as a result, they do not cover the cost of the essentials. Newstart is now $175 per week less than the pension and has not been increased above CPI in 24 years.

    “This is why people, including 110,000 single parents ineligible for Parenting Payment Single, struggle to keep the lights on and put food on the table.

    “We also welcome Andrew Wilkie’s Bill to review the impact of the cut to single parents’ incomes when their youngest child turns eight and they are moved onto Newstart.

    “This review will hopefully shed some light on the terrible effect of drastically cutting single parents’ income. Child poverty increased by around 2 percentage points in the ten years to 2013-14, and a succession of family payment cuts is only making it harder for single parents to feed their children and give them the best start in life.

    “ACOSS calls for Newstart, Youth Allowance and related payments to be immediately increased by $75 per week and indexed to wages to help people keep the lights on and put food on the table. A social security commission would then guide the parliament on next steps for these payments to ensure they do not again fall behind.

  12. Late Riser says: Tuesday, August 6, 2019 at 3:49 pm

    Huh. I had to write the date on some broth just now. When did we stop remembering Hiroshima Day? (And Nagasaki Day in three days.) As a kid I recall it was at least a noteworthy side note to the news.

    *******************************************************************

    Japan remembers – the West prefers to forget

    Hiroshima Marks the 74th Anniversary of the Atomic Bombing

    (TOKYO) — Hiroshima marked the 74rd anniversary of the atomic bombing of the city with its mayor renewing calls for eliminating such weapons and demanding Japan’s government do more.

    The U.S. attack on Hiroshima on Aug. 6, 1945, killed 140,000 people. The bomb dropped three days later on Nagasaki killed another 70,000 before Japan’s surrender ended World War II.

    https://time.com/5644866/japan-hiroshima-atomic-bomb-anniversary/

  13. Pegasus says:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2019 at 3:46 pm

    PBers …..uncritically hail Labor as the one and only great party entitled to be in government.

    We’re very well aware that the Greens do not regard Labor as a creditable party of government. This is ingrained in the Lib-kin world-view and permits them to campaign for the election of Lib-Lib governments even though they stand for everything the Lib-kin claim to reject.

    The Lib-kin demonstrate a profound rejection of Labor. We all get that. Anyone who pays even cursory attention to Australian politics can see the dysfunction on the centre-left. The result is reactionary stagnation in Lib-kin Garden.

  14. It’s not just Newstart. Single parents are $271 per fortnight worse off – some history of policy changes under successive governments:

    December 2018: https://theconversation.com/its-not-just-newstart-single-parents-are-271-per-fortnight-worse-off-labor-needs-an-overarching-welfare-review-107521

    The cumulative effects of the policy choices since 2006 on the disposable incomes of single parent families are substantial.

    We have compared how much low-income parents currently receive, compared to what they would be receiving if these changes had not been made.

    Our calculations are conservative.
    :::
    Single parents still on Parenting Payment Single with two younger children have lost nearly $85 per fortnight; about 6% of their disposable incomes. For families with older children, the loss is about $271 per fortnight; a cut in disposable income of nearly 19%.

    In total there are around 360,000 families with children, Australia’s poorest, who are getting considerably less financial support.

    It has happened as a result of actions by both sides of politics under prime ministers Howard, Rudd, Gillard, Abbott and Turnbull.

    As with the decision to link Newstart to the consumer price index rather than wages, the effects of their decisions will widen over time. The poorest families, and their children, will increasingly fall behind the rest of the population.

    This process is already strongly entrenched.

  15. FMD
    Annual Hiroshima wankfest is in full swing.
    The Japanese started the Pacific War with the unprovoked invasion of China in 1937. That War killed an average of 10,000 civilians a DAY for eight years.
    Hiroshima was barely a fortnight’s worth of civilian casualties.
    Let the Japanese remember THAT!

  16. Poverty relief will not happen unless and until a Labor Government is elected. This prospect is opposed by the Greens, who campaign to defeat Labor. The Greens should take their share of responsibility for the prevalence of poverty, homelessness and financial stress among working people.

  17. I would like to congratulate all those Greens who made their spare bedrooms available to homeless persons using their new Homeless BnB App.
    This shows that the Greens are not content with unctious finger pointing and political slut shaming and that the Greens want to make a real difference.
    Well done the Greens for walking the talk!

  18. 7 Concerning Facts About Poverty in Australia, 15 October 2018

    https://anglicaresa.com.au/7-concerning-facts-about-poverty-in-australia/

    1. Three million Australians live below the poverty line

    2. More than 730,000 of those are children under 15

    The report found that “a major source of child poverty is the high poverty rate among sole-parent families, who must generally rely on a single income.”

    3. Children in single parent families are three times more likely to live in poverty

    Nearly 40 per cent of the 739,000 children who live below the poverty line come from sole parent households.

    4. More than 60 per cent of people on Youth Allowance live below the poverty line

    5. Just under 40 per cent of all recipients of the Disability Pension are living in poverty

    6. Only 17% of people living below the poverty line are homeowners

    Unsurprisingly, 49 per cent of Australians doing it tough reside in a private rental.

    7. Australia’s poverty rate (remains) the 14th highest in the OECD

    In line with the historical contempt we feel towards ‘tall poppies’, we’re remarkably average when it comes to keeping our citizens out of poverty.

    Yeah we’re outperforming big brother, the United States, but we’re not performing as well as we should be.

    After 27 years of sustained economic growth – something that no other developed country has achieved – we should be trending closer to our European counterparts when it comes to our poverty ratios.

  19. Poverty is a staple in Lib-kin Garden. Unless and until the dysfunction on the left is repaired there will be no possibility of relief from poverty. The Greens should own up and admit they have made fundamental political errors and re-set their strategy – a strategy that has been aimed at all times at reducing the Labor-Positive plurality. The Greens are authors of the repression of working people, though they will deny it. Their denial is simply another facet of the dysfunction they generate.

  20. C@tmomma @ #32198 Tuesday, August 6th, 2019 – 3:33 pm

    Mavis,
    Got a link for that? 🙂

    Here . It’s an interesting assessment. I particularly resonate with the fear and loathing of Shorten’s expressed insecurity – which Jensen posits as the reason why Shorten would have made a much better PM than cocksure pseudodad Scummo. The insecure fear and despise insecurity in others – hence Nath’s petulance.

  21. ABC spruiking nuclear energy as a solution to climate change across a number of their government promotion/news outlets today, with Ziggy whatsisname featured prominently.

    No doubt under instruction from the PM’s office.

  22. The IJA stockpiled food in Java while 2.5 million Javanese starved to death.
    Let the Japanese have an annual IJA Javanese Starvation Commemoration.

  23. rhwombat @ #1273 Tuesday, August 6th, 2019 – 4:45 pm

    C@tmomma @ #32198 Tuesday, August 6th, 2019 – 3:33 pm

    Mavis,
    Got a link for that? 🙂

    Here . It’s an interesting assessment. I particularly resonate with the fear and loathing of Shorten’s expressed insecurity – which Jensen posits as the reason why Shorten would have made a much better PM than cocksure pseudodad Scummo. The insecure fear and despise insecurity in others – hence Nath’s petulance.

    Hawke wasn’t insecure.
    Keating wasn’t insecure.
    Whitlam wasn’t insecure.

  24. The Japanese turned the battle for Manila into a civilian slaughterhouse. Not content with civilians as collateral damage, the IJA indulged in massacres of civilians during the battle.
    Around a million civilians were slaughtered in thst battle.
    Let the Japanese commemorate that!

  25. adrian @ #32222 Tuesday, August 6th, 2019 – 4:48 pm

    ABC spruiking nuclear energy as a solution to climate change across a number of their government promotion/news outlets today, with Ziggy whatsisname featured prominently.

    No doubt under instruction from the PM’s office.

    Now that coal is dying (as well as killing), and renewables have drunk Dr Strangelove’s milkshake by proving much, much cheaper, there’s not much more that Scummo The Ad Man can do for his fellow Christian Zionist Pompeo’s sponsors.

    In the wake of the Ohio shootings, I’m having flashbacks: Tin soldiers and Nixon coming, four nine dead in Ohio Kent State

  26. The Japanese DO celebrate the Burma Railroad. It cost an unnecessary death per sleeper.
    Loco 5631 – the first loco to drag a train from one end to the other of the Burma Railroad – across all those sleepers- has pride of place in the Yasukuni Shrine.

  27. I am more tha happy go celebrate the anniversary of Hiroshima Day.
    It helped put an end to the deaths of ten thousand civilians a day.
    Good stuff!

  28. The 1740 Batavia massacre (Dutch: Chinezenmoord, literally “Murder of the Chinese”; Indonesian: Geger Pacinan, meaning “Chinatown Tumult”) was a pogrom in which Dutch East Indies soldiers and native collaborators killed ethnic Chinese residents of the port city of Batavia (present-day Jakarta) in the Dutch East Indies. The violence in the city lasted from 9 October 1740 until 22 October, with minor skirmishes outside the walls continuing late into November that year. Historians have estimated that at least 10,000 ethnic Chinese were massacred; just 600 to 3,000 are believed to have survived.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1740_Batavia_massacre

  29. Nuclear power is one of those discussions that distracts us all every few years.

    Until the issues around cost, waste disposal, possible weapons proliferation and public attitudes to safety are addressed then it will never happen.

    I doubt a Nuclear Power Plant will ever be built in Australia.

    But, I’m not afraid to have the discussion and think the ABC is performing a public service by raising it through it’s various media platforms.

  30. Boerwar
    says:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2019 at 5:12 pm
    I am more tha happy go celebrate the anniversary of Hiroshima Day.
    It helped put an end to the deaths of ten thousand civilians a day.
    Good stuff!
    __________________________
    You are a sad strange man. I’ve never said this to an immigrant before, but really, just piss off.

  31. nath
    I am fairly well across various genocidal and quasi-genocidal behaviours by the Dutch in the NEI.
    I would appreciate a link.

  32. Just because the Japanese Army committed atrocities doesn’t mean that the death of innocent children who died in Hiroshima should be celebrated and cheered on by Boerwar. Just appalling.

  33. rhwombat @ #1274 Tuesday, August 6th, 2019 – 4:45 pm

    C@tmomma @ #32198 Tuesday, August 6th, 2019 – 3:33 pm

    Mavis,
    Got a link for that? 🙂

    Here . It’s an interesting assessment. I particularly resonate with the fear and loathing of Shorten’s expressed insecurity – which Jensen posits as the reason why Shorten would have made a much better PM than cocksure pseudodad Scummo. The insecure fear and despise insecurity in others – hence Nath’s petulance.

    Yeah. Too nice to be PM. People want you to be a borderline psycho, or they won’t respect you. Even supposed Labor members like mundo, who just can’t seem to handle subtlety.

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