Federal election preference flows

New figures from the AEC confirm the Coalition’s share of Hanson and Palmer preferences was approaching two-thirds, a dramatic increase on past form.

We now have as much in the way of results out of the federal election as we’re ever going to, with the Australian Electoral Commission finally publishing preference flow by party data. The table below offers a summary and how it compares with the last two election. They confirm that YouGov Galaxy/Newspoll was actually too conservative in giving the Coalition 60% of preferences from One Nation and the United Australia Party, with the actual flow for both parties being nearly identical at just over 65%.

The United Australia Party preference flow to the Coalition was very substantially stronger than the 53.7% recorded by the Palmer United Party in 2013, despite its how-to-vote cards directing preferences to the Coalition on both occasions. A result is also listed for Palmer United in 2016, but it is important to read these numbers in conjunction with the column recording the relevant party’s vote share at the election, which in this case was next to zero (it only contested one lower house seat, and barely registered there). Greens preferences did nothing out of the ordinary, being slightly stronger to Labor than in 2016 and slightly weaker than in 2013.

The combined “others” flow to the Coalition rose from 50.8% to 53.6%, largely reflecting the much smaller footprint of the Nick Xenophon Team/Centre Alliance, whose preferences in 2016 split 60-40 to Labor. This also contributes to the smaller share for “others”, with both figures being closer to where they were in 2013. “Inter-Coalition” refers to where there were both Liberal and Nationals candidates in a seat, some of whose preferences will have flowed to Labor rather than each other. The “share” result in this case records the combined Coalition vote in such seats as a share of the national formal vote.

While we’re here, note the blog’s other two recent posts: Adrian Beaumont’s account of Brecon & Radnorshire by-election, and my own in-depth review of the legal challenges against the election of Josh Frydenberg in Kooyong and Gladys Liu in Chisholm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,440 comments on “Federal election preference flows”

  1. nath

    I reckon the telling of “Just So” stories peaked under Howard. It was amazing the number of Coalition MPs and Ministers who had spoken within the last day or two to a constituent who had an amazingly ‘convenient’ tale to tell .

  2. I’m well into the fourth decade of avoiding News Corp products at all times. I don’t partake. I don’t even sip from them.

    I saw the Daily Tele at the supermarket checkout this morning, but I didn’t inhale.

  3. LEIGH SALES: Let me take you to another point. You that said Labor’s committed to addressing inequality in poverty. Yet also in government, recently, one of your most noted policies in the social arena was cutting payments for single mothers by $60 to $160 a week?
    BILL SHORTEN: I’ve said that that was a mistake.
    https://www.abc.net.au/7.30/bill-shorten-admits-mistake-on-cutting-payments-to/7249498

    FORMER senior Labor minister Jenny Macklin has told a gathering of single mothers the Gillard government “got it wrong” on cuts to single parent payments,
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/gillard-government-got-it-wrong-on-single-parent-payments-says-jenny-macklin/news-story/216615d31b6b50a85ab77b7e917950ad

  4. Seeing that Shorten as leader and Macklin as Shadow have apologised for their policy on single mothers, that leaves Victoria and Sprocket on the Liberal side of the debate now. Congrats.

  5. Maybe at his next branch meeting Sprocket can argue that the 8 year old cut off for the Parenting Payment is disadvantageous to single mothers and that as soon as the child reaches 6 months of age they should be put on Newstart. By his logic that will help even more mothers and children.

  6. So I’ve been offline.
    Anything happened? Labor made any announcements, pronouncements about how useless the government is? Any major statements about how Australia can’t afford to be going backwards? That sort of thing. Anything critical of the government, pushing back, keeping themselves relevant, passionate, enthusiastic….opposing stuff, suggesting alternatives?
    How’s that Albo going, getting himself out there, commenting, joking, pulling the odd stunt…?
    No?
    Oh well, maybe tomorrow.

  7. sprocket_ @ #1196 Tuesday, August 6th, 2019 – 12:45 pm

    Victoria

    Whilst we are on Newstart anecdotes – admittedly a tiny sample – a client Mrs Sprocket counsels in country NSW (Young/Yass) used to be long term unemployed, separated from paedo partner in and out of jail, packet a day smoker, drinker and dope smoker, housing commission with a young daughter.

    When her daughter turned 8, she had to go on Newstart with all the attendant job interviews, training courses etc. There are few jobs in that part of the world, for her or her pals in similar positions. And along comes NDIS. Not only has this provided more contract work for service providers, but this has created vacancies along the supply chain – the work NDIS providers used to do.

    So our friend gets offered a job providing support services, takes it, settles into working, moves away from her disfunctional environment to another country town – buys a house (with support from Mrs Sprocket), gets her daughter into the local high school, repays her debts and takes control of her life again.

    Small sample, but had she not been forced into the NewStart regime, she’d probably be still in the old environment.

    But you try getting that through to nasty nath.

  8. Dandy Murray @ #1200 Tuesday, August 6th, 2019 – 1:02 pm

    It’s been all about capital accumulation in China for at least 20 years, which is all about domestic employment. Makes our abandonment of a automotive industry look positively childish.

    How else is a developing nation supposed to become a developed nation? The wealth has to come from somewhere; China doesn’t exist for the West’s benefit.

  9. nath is verballing and attempting to sensationalise and draw absolutes from skerricks of information.

    Only to be expected from an avid reader of the SmearStralian.

  10. sprocket_
    says:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2019 at 1:40 pm
    nath is verballing and attempting to sensationalise and draw absolutes from skerricks of information.
    Only to be expected from an avid reader of the SmearStralian.
    ____________________
    Sprocket thought he knew the party line. Now he’s not so sure. What to think? What to believe? He needs directives from HQ on this asap.

  11. Sprocket you support a policy that Shorten and Macklin have apologised for. You are on the Liberal side of this debate. Accept your position.

  12. Hopefully the Morrison government won’t think of a way to exculpate the SAS for this, should it be proven to be true:

    NSW Supreme Court Justice Paul Brereton and staff representing the Inspector-General of the Australian Defence Force have interviewed witnesses in Kabul as part of their investigations into allegations of war crimes by Australian special forces soldiers. The allegations were revealed in an ABC investigation that subsequently prompted a raid by the Australian Federal Police on the national broadcaster in June. The allegations include an account of Australian SAS troopers responding to the killing of three Australian soldiers by killing three Afghans, with one of the victims alleged to have been either kicked or thrown from a high wall into a ditch while handcuffed and then shot, or shot first then thrown from the wall.

  13. Despite a couple of anecdotes about single mothers doing better under Newstart etc etc. The figures tell a different story:

    And the proportion of single parents employed went backwards during the global financial crisis, sliding to 53% and only recovering to 55% in 2017, despite the move of families from Parenting Payment Single to Newstart.

    https://theconversation.com/its-not-just-newstart-single-parents-are-271-per-fortnight-worse-off-labor-needs-an-overarching-welfare-review-107521

  14. ar
    “How else is a developing nation supposed to become a developed nation? The wealth has to come from somewhere; China doesn’t exist for the West’s benefit.”

    The Chinese government is looking after its own people. When the government isn’t interning, executing, and driving over its own people with tanks, its first priority is their well-being.

  15. How else is a developing nation supposed to become a developed nation? The wealth has to come from somewhere; China doesn’t exist for the West’s benefit.

    Ah shit AR, it’s pretty easy to turn that argument around the other way, no?

    That’s why trade and currency manipulation rules were developed in the first place.

    Currency manipulation is a prisoners dilemma. Either everyone agrees not to do it, or everyone does it and everyone looses.

  16. The Chinese government is looking after its own people. When the government isn’t interning, executing, and driving over its own people with tanks, its first priority is their well-being.

    You left off the sabre rattling at its neighbours and pushing the envelope on international territorial claims.

  17. Dandy M.
    “You left off the sabre rattling at its neighbours and pushing the envelope on international territorial claims.”

    The Chinese people love this. It shows the world what a great power China is. This is payback for the Opium Wars.

  18. “I reckon the telling of “Just So” stories peaked under Howard. It was amazing the number of Coalition MPs and Ministers who had spoken within the last day or two to a constituent who had an amazingly ‘convenient’ tale to tell .”

    You have a point nath. But I am disgusted in your pathetic attempts to bash Sproket over the head with this. His point – which you have gone out of your way to ‘miss’ – is equally valid. More so in my books.

    The trick is – indeed, the labor way must be – is to turn Sproket’s story from the mere anecdotal into THE normative outcome. THAT was one of the design goals of Working Nation and in between 1994 and when it was scrapped in about 1998 it worked. Brilliantly.

  19. C@t

    Yes. Another good outcome. But of course nath wants to continue beating a frickin boring as batshit drum. I’ve said my piece. Not going to engage nath further. It’s a waste of precious time

  20. Kakuru @ #1222 Tuesday, August 6th, 2019 – 2:05 pm

    Dandy M.
    “You left off the sabre rattling at its neighbours and pushing the envelope on international territorial claims.”

    The Chinese people love this. It shows the world what a great power China is. This is payback for the Opium Wars.

    Exactly. The Chinese never forgive, and they never forget, and they always plan exactly how to exact their revenge.

  21. I like the bit about Britain intending to crash out of the EU and after that, trying to negotiate some sort of deal with the Europeans. “Tough luck!” will be the likely response.

    Boris Johnson has no intention of renegotiating the withdrawal agreement and a no-deal Brexit is his “central scenario”, European diplomats have been told, amid hardening evidence in Westminster that the government is expecting to crash out of the EU.

    Brussels diplomats briefed after a meeting between the prime minister’s chief envoy and senior EU figures in Brussels said that Britain’s refusal to compromise was understood to have been clear to those attending.

    Instead David Frost, the government’s new chief Europe adviser, is said to have sought discussions on how negotiations could be reset after the UK crashes out on 31 October.

    “It was clear UK does not have another plan,” a senior EU diplomat said of the meetings with Frost. “No intention to negotiate, which would require a plan. A no deal now appears to be the UK government’s central scenario.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/05/no-deal-brexit-is-boris-johnsons-central-scenario-eu-told

  22. The Chinese people love this. It shows the world what a great power China is. This is payback for the Opium Wars.

    Yeah, I’ve been in that conversation too.

    Anyway, it’s after midnight in Georgia. Catch you all later.

  23. Victoria says:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2019 at 2:09 pm

    C@t

    Yes. Another good outcome. But of course nath wants to continue beating a frickin boring as batshit drum. I’ve said my piece. Not going to engage nath further. It’s a waste of precious time
    ___________
    Yep another good anecdote. Despite figures which I cited showing that single parent employment did not go up after the changes were made, therefore leading to less welfare support and increased poverty.

    That’s why Shorten apologised for the changes.

  24. Less support for single parents (mothers) also makes it likelier that women will stay with abusive partners rather than go it alone with inadequate support. Sprocket et al, wants it harder for single mothers to survive on welfare, making it harder for women to escape domestic abuse unless they have a job etc etc. Congrats.

  25. that’s why Whitlam introduced not only No Fault divorce but also the Single Mothers Pension. Making it possible for women fleeing marriage etc to survive without a partner.

  26. “That’s why Shorten apologised for the changes.”

    One wonders why you didn’t spend the last 6 years praising him for recognising Labor’s error and being up front and apologising for it.

    Its also important to remember that the architect of the change was that left wing renaissance man Swanny when he was in his full on surplus fetish phase. And Gillard, for the same reason. Indeed, its fair to say Gillard may well have lost caucus votes over this issue.

    But of course, continue to fulminate over Shorten and poor old Jenny Mackin by all means naff.

  27. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2019 at 2:33 pm

    “That’s why Shorten apologised for the changes.”

    One wonders why you didn’t spend the last 6 years praising him for recognising Labor’s error and being up front and apologising for it.

    Its also important to remember that the architect of the change was that left wing renaissance man Swanny when he was in his full on surplus fetish phase. And Gillard, for the same reason. Indeed, its fair to say Gillard may well have lost caucus votes over this issue.

    But of course, continue to fulminate over Shorten and poor old Jenny Mackin by all means naff.
    _________________________
    I said many times that if Shorten would have promised to restore the Whitlam/Hawke/Keating arrangement he would have my vote. He promised a ‘root and branch review’ instead. Clearly the ALP have moved away from what they did under Rudd/Gillard/Macklin but where they actually end up is anyone’s guess.

  28. No movement on Interest rates by the RBA today.

    However, the share market tumble today may be about to force the Feds to loosen the purse strings and provide some stimulation. If they don’t then there is a strong chance of a recession. If they stay with a “Surplus or bust” approach to economic management then Australia might be in for a bumpy ride.

  29. However, the share market tumble today may be about to force the Feds to loosen the purse strings and provide some stimulation. If they don’t then there is a strong chance of a recession. If they stay with a “Surplus or bust” approach to economic management then Australia might be in for a bumpy ride.

    A bumpy ride it is then. There’s no way in hell they will give up on their surplus fetish.

  30. Vic,

    Not too bad.

    Over the last couple of weeks all Lenders have reduced their hurdle rate for new loans by around 1.5%.

    This is helpful especially to First Home Buyers because it significantly improves their servicing capacity.

    A broad example of the impact is that up until now whenever a loan was being assessed the serviceability would be assessed as if the interest rate were 7.25%. That rate has reduced to around 5.75%. This means borrowers seeking a loan of $400k have the servicing target reduced by $6000 pa or $500 per month. This is a a big help for FHBs.

    On the other side expenses are being more closely scrutinised and relatively minor indiscretions on paying loans and credit cards are becoming show stoppers for buyers. My advice is that pay your bills on time and manage your financial commitments.

  31. Crikey. The Home Affairs department has added to its lengthy list of debacles with a train wreck appearance before the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security (PJCIS) on the government’s citizenship-stripping laws that appeared to signal a dramatic change in the way the government views citizenship.

    Appearing before the PJCIS on Friday afternoon, officials from the Home Affairs portfolio — the centre of a number of major bungles in recent years and currently the subject of significant national security concerns over its links with gambling giant Crown — inflicted significant damage on the government’s case for ever-greater powers to strip Australians of citizenship.

    Cheryl Kernot @cheryl_kernot
    2h
    “But Home Affairs assistant secretary Derek Bopping alarmed the committee when he flagged that H A now regards Aust citizenship for all citizens, regardless of place of birth, as a “privilege”, suggesting it could be withdrawn by the Govt at any time.

  32. Hi, GG, while you are in free advice mode 🙂 could you please give me an indication of how easy it would be for a young man to get a loan for his first house, who is permanently employed, about to inherit ~400k and looking to spend about 600k? Thank you. 🙂

  33. Vic,

    Depends on their situation

    1. Structure of family.
    2. Existing loans and commitments.
    3. Conduct of accounts.
    4. Income
    5. Deposit. (Under 80% LVR is best).
    6. Frills they require.
    7. Personal Expenses.

    Our best rate is 3.18% atm. So repayments are around $1725 per month.

  34. Cat,

    See my last post.

    However, it was Victorian based and I’m not overly familiar with FHB discounts in NSW.

    But, a million dollar purchase would have around $60k of expenses (stamp duty, conveyancing etc).

    Easiness of getting a loan depends on all the factors mentioned. Repayment capacity is critical. But, it’s not the only factor.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *