Federal election preference flows

New figures from the AEC confirm the Coalition’s share of Hanson and Palmer preferences was approaching two-thirds, a dramatic increase on past form.

We now have as much in the way of results out of the federal election as we’re ever going to, with the Australian Electoral Commission finally publishing preference flow by party data. The table below offers a summary and how it compares with the last two election. They confirm that YouGov Galaxy/Newspoll was actually too conservative in giving the Coalition 60% of preferences from One Nation and the United Australia Party, with the actual flow for both parties being nearly identical at just over 65%.

The United Australia Party preference flow to the Coalition was very substantially stronger than the 53.7% recorded by the Palmer United Party in 2013, despite its how-to-vote cards directing preferences to the Coalition on both occasions. A result is also listed for Palmer United in 2016, but it is important to read these numbers in conjunction with the column recording the relevant party’s vote share at the election, which in this case was next to zero (it only contested one lower house seat, and barely registered there). Greens preferences did nothing out of the ordinary, being slightly stronger to Labor than in 2016 and slightly weaker than in 2013.

The combined “others” flow to the Coalition rose from 50.8% to 53.6%, largely reflecting the much smaller footprint of the Nick Xenophon Team/Centre Alliance, whose preferences in 2016 split 60-40 to Labor. This also contributes to the smaller share for “others”, with both figures being closer to where they were in 2013. “Inter-Coalition” refers to where there were both Liberal and Nationals candidates in a seat, some of whose preferences will have flowed to Labor rather than each other. The “share” result in this case records the combined Coalition vote in such seats as a share of the national formal vote.

While we’re here, note the blog’s other two recent posts: Adrian Beaumont’s account of Brecon & Radnorshire by-election, and my own in-depth review of the legal challenges against the election of Josh Frydenberg in Kooyong and Gladys Liu in Chisholm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,440 comments on “Federal election preference flows”

  1. nath says:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2019 at 10:37 am

    Barney knows all about poverty. He lives like a King surrounded by it.

    You’re showing your ignorance and projecting yourself on others once again.

    You may like to flaunt your wealth and think it makes you better than others, but I have more respect for the people that have made me feel so welcome.

  2. A_E

    It may take several cycles for Labor to shift its brand values sufficiently to win on such a policy. But it must be done. The political exploitation by the Liberals of working people will continue. This is dead-set. Labor have to position themselves as the counter-brand and set out to sell the ethical, political and intellectual merits of their position.

    This is the path forward for Labor in the 21st century just as it was at the outset of the 20th.

  3. Victoria
    says:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2019 at 10:46 am
    Nath
    So what’s the problem then for a parent of a child who turns 8.?
    ______________________________________
    The old SPP implemented by Hawke and Keating was a brilliant safety net provision. It put child poverty ahead of any other consideration.

    A single parent with a child over 8 might get a job and stay in it for a while. That parent might lose that job when the child is 9, 10, 11 or whatever. On Newstart that child is at risk of experiencing poverty related effects.

    Under the Hawke/Keating system the SPP phased out when the child reached 16, when they could apply for youth allowance.

  4. Victoria
    says:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2019 at 10:46 am
    Nath
    So what’s the problem then for a parent of a child who turns 8.?
    ________________________________
    And John Howard agrees with you. Congrats.

  5. Fr Rod Bower sums things up perfectly when he tweets “Nothing will change in America. It is an empire in decline. They will continue to kill each other until their society collapses. So Sad.”

  6. nath

    From what I understand, single parents still get family benefit payments for each child until they turn 16 and then it becomes youth allowance.
    Again I don’t see the issue with other changes being made when a child turns 8. As the example given earlier, the one who lost 200 per fortnight was only 35 years of age. Surely she is able to work. It is better to become skilled during the prime of your life, rather than wait for your child to turn 16 and you are suddenly in your mid forties

  7. nath

    You’re seriously arguing that someone who sells their family home is feathering their nest?

    Houses which were bought for quite modest sums a few decades ago have increased dramatically in value.

    I doubt Macklin was behind some kind of government conspiracy to ensure that her home, and hers alone, increased in value.

  8. Victoria
    says:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2019 at 11:19 am
    nath
    From what I understand, single parents still get family benefit payments for each child until they turn 16 and then it becomes youth allowance.
    Again I don’t see the issue with other changes being made when a child turns 8. As the example given earlier, the one who lost 200 per fortnight was only 35 years of age. Surely she is able to work. It is better to become skilled during the prime of your life, rather than wait for your child to turn 16 and you are suddenly in your mid forties
    _________________________________
    That’s why most single parents do work. However, there are a range of people suffering from mental health issues, addictions and other issues who struggle in full time work and for whom the PP implemented under Hawke/Keating was far superior.

    If you prefer the model implemented by Howard and backed by Gillard that’s fine. I prefer the model that Hawke and Keating presided over.

  9. And I have a personal example of a single parent whose child turned 8 when the changes were made. It compelled her to go back and work 15 hours per week. Since then she has gone from strength to strength working in a very sought after role.
    She credits the changes to get her out of her comfort zone.
    She is in a better financial, emotional and mental position now as a result.

  10. Nath

    My example above had three children, and suffered mentally etc
    She started at 15 hours per week. Having a job actually helped her overcome her issues as she had a focus and felt good about becoming self sufficient.
    Being on Newstart does not help people in the headspace at all. It entrenches the victim mentality

  11. Victoria
    says:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2019 at 11:36 am
    Nath
    My example above had three children, and suffered mentally etc
    She started at 15 hours per week. Having a job actually helped her overcome her issues as she had a focus and felt good about becoming self sufficient.
    Being on Newstart does not help people in the headspace at all. It entrenches the victim mentality
    ________________________________
    I prefer to look at the numerous reports done since the changes were made that prove that poverty has increased for tens of thousands of families because of those changes.

    Don’t forget to send John Howard your congrats for implementing these changes.

  12. LONDON CALLING
    He was called a hero of the Liberals’ federal election win, and now deputy campaign director Isaac Levido is off to London’s Downing Street for a plum role inside the office of newly-minted Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

    A one-time staffer to Crosby Textor in Sydney and the UK, Levido also worked on a slew of US Republican Senate campaigns and inside Theresa May’s 2017 campaign war room, before returning to Australia to help engineer the Morrison Miracle.

    His next moves have been closely watched, with sources close to the political insider adamant his return to the UK would in no way include a return to CT’s UK offices.

  13. nath

    As I said, Newstart should only be a short term measure.
    No one can live on it indefinitely and nor should they if they don’t have a disability etc.
    I see the real issue with people becoming unemployed as they get older. Waiting for the aged pension is a long way away, and of course superannuation usually can’t be accessed until retirement.
    I agree that the current rate is too low, especially in these instances.
    That’s a policy area that Labor need to look at going forward, cos I can’t see the fiberals doing anything much unless it affects their base.

  14. I think the Labor concept of the Proud Working Class of the Mechanic’s Institute type went up with lace-up boots.
    I think the Libs have it right.
    They see Australia made up of: 10% Rich, and Deservedly So; 70% Middle Class – and with luck will become one of the Deservedly Rich; 10% Aspirations, looking to join the Middle Class and Deservedly Rich. The remaining 10% – Bottom of the Heap – any one of Dole Bludger, Trailer Trash, and Sundry Losers always whinging about how tough they are doing it rather than getting a job.

  15. Barney in Makassar @ #1093 Tuesday, August 6th, 2019 – 9:22 am

    ItzaDream says:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2019 at 8:43 am

    Barney in Makassar @ #1070 Tuesday, August 6th, 2019 – 7:33 am

    lizzie,

    Sounds a bit harsh¿

    I have one requirement;

    Demonstrates a real need to own a gun.

    To which the likely response would be ‘self defence’, and so it goes, round and round, till everyone owns a gun.
    ..

    I wouldn’t consider “self defence” as demonstrating a real need for a gun.

    For me a real need would be, you required one to perform your work or in the case of “sport and recreational” use, the owner would need to be a member of a club, where the gun would be stored when not being used. 🙂

    Agree Barney. I didn’t say a valid response, but the likely response (like arming teachers in schools), the end point of which is everyone ends up with a gun.

  16. “We are sickened by this monstrous evil,” said the president on Monday. We need, he said, to “find the courage to answer hatred with unity, devotion and love.”

    Nice sentiments. Too bad Trump said them in a flat voice, like he was recording a hostage video. And then, on the final reference, he referred to the city where the second shooting occurred as Toledo. Nothing shows how much you care more than misstating the name of the city where nine people died in a mass shooting, especially after you read it right from the teleprompter only minutes earlier.

    Trump is literally the last person who can bring comfort to the grieving, never mind solve the problem of gun violence in the United States. Our president is a failure as both a human being and a leader. We’ve seen it demonstrated time and time again.

    Trump has spent the better part of a decade inciting anger and hate. He’s our bully in chief. He went from pushing racist birther theories about President Barack Obama to calling Mexican and other Hispanic immigrants “rapists” and “animals” and “thugs.” He referred to migration to the United States as an “infestation” and “invasion.”

    …Please. There are mentally ill individuals who play violent video games in other countries too — people who spend too much time on the Internet imbibing violent rhetoric. There is only one country where this stuff is potentially implicated in mass shootings. The reason for this is because our nation lacks effective gun control, and the man in charge inflames the situation with dehumanizing language. That is Donald Trump, who can’t even be bothered to remember what city a mass murder occurred in. There are no words he can say to make this go away. He owns it.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/08/05/trumps-speech-was-like-hostage-video/

  17. Tricot

    I know so many young people who are very motivated. They work, study etc
    And even those who have finished their schooling, have gone back part time to attain new skills. There will always be the few that are not interested or motivated to do anything. In the long run, it is very bad for them.
    They need to be enrolled in a course or some traineeship programs etc. otherwise this habit will become entrenched and sets their whole life up for failure.

  18. And another way to ensure that young people are not set up to fail and live in poverty, is to support them whilst they still live at home.
    It gives them the opportunity to save most of their income before venturing out on their own. It is a great buffer that will hold them in good stead.

  19. Tricot says:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2019 at 11:51 am

    I think the Labor concept of the Proud Working Class of the Mechanic’s Institute type went up with lace-up boots.
    I think the Libs have it right.
    They see Australia made up of: 10% Rich, and Deservedly So; 70% Middle Class – and with luck will become one of the Deservedly Rich; 10% Aspirations, looking to join the Middle Class and Deservedly Rich. The remaining 10% – Bottom of the Heap – any one of Dole Bludger, Trailer Trash, and Sundry Losers always whinging about how tough they are doing it rather than getting a job.

    I’d say the biggest whingers are the middle classes, whose problems mainly arise from life choices.

    Of cause the Libs have got it right supporting the top 10% and those who have more than enough to live a comfortable lifestyle¿

  20. @samanthamaiden
    ·
    50s
    Greatest convo today with a federal MP
    MP: “Oh my God, I’ve just stepped in poo!
    ME: OK, I hope it’s not human. Are you OK? Anyway, my question is…

  21. Trump’s blooded hands –

    the language used by the alleged killer replicates language used by Trump, and his re-election campaign, not in any obscure forum but on his official Facebook and Twitter pages. The second sentence of the manifesto – “This attack is a response to the Hispanic invasion of Texas” – echoes white nationalist rhetoric falsely asserting that people of Latino or Hispanic descent represent an “invasion” in the United States.

    Trump’s campaign has used the word “invasion” to describe migrants seeking entry at the US-Mexico border in 2,199 Facebook ads since January

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/aug/05/trump-internet-facebook-ads-racism-immigrant-invasion

  22. I trust you all know who Sarina Russo is.

    MsRebeccaRobins @MsRebeccaRobins
    ·2h
    #auspol while Australians on #newstart are being called bludgers by our media and Morrison won’t increase welfare guess what, SARINA RUSSO WAS AT ROLAND GARROS FOR THE FRENCH OPEN DRESSED IN GUCCI . She’s a parasite sucking the life out of those on welfare with Morrisons approval

  23. The Australian share market has plummeted to an 18-month low and has now wiped off $90 billion in the last two days.

    The local market fell nearly 3 per cent in the first 15 minutes after a disastrous day on Wall Street where stocks fell as the US-China trade war escalated.

    The sell-off returned the local indices to levels last seen on June 7, with companies on the broader All Ordinaries index reportedly losing $57 billion in market value by 10.45am alone.

    The market turmoil appeared to flare up on Tuesday morning when the US Treasury Department said it had determined for the first time since 1994 that China was manipulating its currency.

  24. Of course, China will do whatever it can to manipulate its currency – it isn’t a capitalist society!

    The only ones that will suffer ultimately will be the American public.

  25. kirky

    The only ones that will suffer ultimately will be the American public.

    Who have already ‘suffered’ from the many years of Chinese currency manipulation. So the chance to get some retaliatory kicks in may appeal or even seem worthwhile………even if it isn’t.

  26. Victoria

    Whilst we are on Newstart anecdotes – admittedly a tiny sample – a client Mrs Sprocket counsels in country NSW (Young/Yass) used to be long term unemployed, separated from paedo partner in and out of jail, packet a day smoker, drinker and dope smoker, housing commission with a young daughter.

    When her daughter turned 8, she had to go on Newstart with all the attendant job interviews, training courses etc. There are few jobs in that part of the world, for her or her pals in similar positions. And along comes NDIS. Not only has this provided more contract work for service providers, but this has created vacancies along the supply chain – the work NDIS providers used to do.

    So our friend gets offered a job providing support services, takes it, settles into working, moves away from her disfunctional environment to another country town – buys a house (with support from Mrs Sprocket), gets her daughter into the local high school, repays her debts and takes control of her life again.

    Small sample, but had she not been forced into the NewStart regime, she’d probably be still in the old environment.

  27. sprocket_
    says:
    Small sample, but had she not been forced into the NewStart regime, she’d probably be still in the old environment.
    ___________________________
    Yep. These anecdotes are exactly what John Howard said would happen. It was all about the extension of neo-liberal self help rhetoric spreading into the welfare system which Hawke and Keating resisted. You should have voted Liberal earlier, say for Hewson, they were all about these anecdotes back then.

  28. ar
    “And fair enough, too. They started it!”

    Yes – unlike the population of China, Americans get to vote. The Chinese economy can tank, and the Communist Party will still reign supreme. Any dissent will be crushed.
    Trump may have autocratic tendencies, but he can’t control elections (even with Russian help). If the US economy shows signs of stress, and jobs are lost, the voters will vent their fury on election day.

  29. I thought you would have been praising Jenny Macklin, nath.

    Rather than going to the tired Liberal trope, which you clearly are rooting for.

  30. And fair enough, too. They started it!

    Hardly.

    Chinese friends have consistently laughed at naive US, and generally western, policy towards Chinese currency manipulation for at least two decades, saying “what do you think they [Chinese govt] are trying to do?”

    It’s been all about capital accumulation in China for at least 20 years, which is all about domestic employment. Makes our abandonment of a automotive industry look positively childish.

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