Federal election preference flows

New figures from the AEC confirm the Coalition’s share of Hanson and Palmer preferences was approaching two-thirds, a dramatic increase on past form.

We now have as much in the way of results out of the federal election as we’re ever going to, with the Australian Electoral Commission finally publishing preference flow by party data. The table below offers a summary and how it compares with the last two election. They confirm that YouGov Galaxy/Newspoll was actually too conservative in giving the Coalition 60% of preferences from One Nation and the United Australia Party, with the actual flow for both parties being nearly identical at just over 65%.

The United Australia Party preference flow to the Coalition was very substantially stronger than the 53.7% recorded by the Palmer United Party in 2013, despite its how-to-vote cards directing preferences to the Coalition on both occasions. A result is also listed for Palmer United in 2016, but it is important to read these numbers in conjunction with the column recording the relevant party’s vote share at the election, which in this case was next to zero (it only contested one lower house seat, and barely registered there). Greens preferences did nothing out of the ordinary, being slightly stronger to Labor than in 2016 and slightly weaker than in 2013.

The combined “others” flow to the Coalition rose from 50.8% to 53.6%, largely reflecting the much smaller footprint of the Nick Xenophon Team/Centre Alliance, whose preferences in 2016 split 60-40 to Labor. This also contributes to the smaller share for “others”, with both figures being closer to where they were in 2013. “Inter-Coalition” refers to where there were both Liberal and Nationals candidates in a seat, some of whose preferences will have flowed to Labor rather than each other. The “share” result in this case records the combined Coalition vote in such seats as a share of the national formal vote.

While we’re here, note the blog’s other two recent posts: Adrian Beaumont’s account of Brecon & Radnorshire by-election, and my own in-depth review of the legal challenges against the election of Josh Frydenberg in Kooyong and Gladys Liu in Chisholm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,440 comments on “Federal election preference flows”

  1. The only really effective way to reduce coal production is on the demand side. Reducing the demand for coal by providing substitute energy sources will work. Falling demand will lead to lower production. Since this is going to happen in any case and the results will include contraction in the coal supply chain in Australia we should try to make sure we’re on the right side of that transition.

    The Liberals are trying to forestall the transition at all costs and will both elevate and exploit the fears of those who will be affected by change. The Lib-kin are also in the fear-manufacturing trade, which leads to postponement of the transition.

    We should recall that it is in the first place the demand for coal that has given rise to production. Supply from Australia has been expanded to meet demand rather than the other way around. Production will fall when demand falls. Demand can and will be changed. It is already changing. The same is true of other fossil fuels. As the price of substitutes falls demand for fossil fuels will fall and so will fossil fuel production. We should get into the production of substitutes while we can…while demand for them is emerging. We should locate capital in the energy industries of the future rather than strand it in the industries of the past.

  2. Dandy

    Not sure where you get that info from because if our coal is the best on the planet then those importers wont want to go elsewhere, its not like cars or shoes.

    We don’t always sell the best product as Fortescue found out a year or two ago when the Chinese rejected some of their product forcing them to blend the lower quality with the better quality coal or they were stuck with a product no one wanted.

  3. Hi Mex,

    Not sure where you get that info from because if our coal is the best on the planet then those importers wont want to go elsewhere, its not like cars or shoes.

    They won’t want to use other sources of coal because it will cost them more, but it’s not a hard constraint on their use of imported coal for power production.

  4. sustainable future says:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2019 at 12:30 am

    “Greens biggest achievement: Voting against Malaysian solution therefore condemning refugees to Manus forever.”

    The Lib-kin voted with the Lib-Libs. They voted to ensure the defeat of the Gillard government in the Senate, paving the way for the restoration of the Lib-Lib regime; paving the way for the taking and keeping of a permanent population of political hostages by their alter-egos, the Abbott regime and its successors. The Lib-kin enabled the policies of concentration and punishment that have been pursued by their colleagues, the Liberals…policies from which the Lib-kin make political profits and which they use to attack their main enemies, Labor.

    The cargo of prisoners held for the purposes of political exploitation would not exist were it not for the contemptible depravities of the Lib-kin.

  5. Rex Douglas, at 16:14 yesterday you asked which firearm would have been used on wombats. i would guess that a fair amount would have been culled with the mark 111 lee enfield .303 british.

  6. When there are multiple suppliers you don’t have to be bright to see the solution is the reduction in demand. Tony Maher is not saying we should not be reducing demand, for that sort of policy nonsense look towards the Greens and there opposition to renewables. It’s the birds.

    The Greens stunt-o-thon and their continual attacks on Labor do not make sense from a policy point of view unless you accept they are nothing more than Liberal enablers.

    They are not in government, not likely to be in government, they don’t have many senators, they don’t have to have a sane policy position. They develop their nobel words in secret, they elect their Leaders in secret; for all we know the mineral council funds them.

    They are impotent when it comes to environmental policy, all they can do is keep the Liberals in power and they work hard at it.

    I note Pegasus has not attempted a list of Green achievements, there are a few. Helping the Liberals win the 2019 election should be in the top 10, sinking any attempts to solve the refuge issue would have to be there, preventing labor implementing a market based solution to put a price on CO2, that would have to be a major achievement. Come on Peg have a go.

  7. @frednk

    The Greens would need to shift their ideology more towards what the Democratic Socialists of America, who Alexandria Ocasio Cortez is a part of, in order to get more than say 13-14% of the vote.

  8. From the AFR – Donald being owned by the Comrades..

    A weaker yuan and a stronger dollar pose challenges for US companies that do substantial business in China, as it effectively raises the cost of their goods for Chinese customers.

    China’s commerce ministry said Chinese companies have stopped buying US agricultural products and that China will not rule out imposing import tariffs on US farm products that were bought after August 3.

    Shares of S&P 500 technology companies, which are heavily exposed to Chinese markets, dropped 4.5 per cent.

    Apple shares slid 5.3 per cent as analysts warned that the newly proposed tariffs may hurt demand for the iPhone, while the Philadelphia semiconductor index dropped 4.8 per cent.

    Several investors viewed China’s willingness to allow the yuan to drop below the seven-per-dollar level as a direct response to Mr Trump’s announcement of 10 per cent tariffs on an additional $US300 billion of Chinese imports.

  9. President Trump urged the nation Monday to condemn bigotry and white supremacy after a pair of mass shootings and focused on combating mental illness over new gun-control measures in remarks delivered from the White House.

    “In one voice, our nation must condemn racism, bigotry and white supremacy,” Trump said. “Hatred warps the mind, ravages the heart and devours the soul.”

    His nationally televised comments followed a weekend of carnage in El Paso and Dayton, Ohio, that left 31 people dead and scores wounded. The shooter in El Paso appears to have posted an anti-immigrant screed on an online message board, and authorities are seriously considering charging him with federal hate crimes.


    Trump should lead from the front. Stop racist tweeting and stop stoking hatred at his rallies.

  10. Dow down 767, 2.9%
    NASDAQ down 3.47%
    Bitcoin to $11,746, up 7.43%
    Bond yields at near record lows
    An idiotic blowhard in the Whitehouse

  11. Rick WilsonVerified account@TheRickWilson
    4h4 hours ago
    If you take Trump’s words from the teleprompter as anything close to reality you’re a damn fool.

    You know he is going to start throwing shit out of his monkey cage when he tires of adult supervision.

    For Trump the truth is always in the asides.

  12. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Peter Hartcher tells us that There are good reasons why Australia should not accept the Trump administration’s request to join its Persian Gulf patrol. But there is a vital principle at stake – freedom of navigation. Ge says we will be deployed because Trump created the crisis and he now wants the rest of the world to help manage the problem that is of his own making.
    The Age reveals that authorities believe that Crown investment companies were used to launder drug funds.
    It looks like the Liberal Party right wing faction is at it again with branch stacking.
    Tax cuts won’t pry open household wallets. Only wages growth can says Greg Jericho. He supports his position with some horrible looking charts.
    Financial markets have buckled after China escalated the trade war with the US, sending American stocks careening toward the biggest drop of the year and sparking a rally in global bonds. Gold surged with the yen. And the Aussie futures suggest a 100 point fall for today.
    The AFR reports that the Dow tumbled more than 900 points and all three major indexes dropped more than 3 per cent as Wall Street headed towards the biggest rout of the year, triggered by the slide in the yuan and increasing heat in the US-China trade war.
    Stephen Bartholomeusz writes that overshadowed by Donald Trump’s escalation of his trade conflict with China last week was the release of US trade data that shows, again, that his trade wars aren’t working. He says Trump is escalating a trade war he isn’t winning.
    It’s Trump’s base that is being hurt as China stops buying US crops in retaliation.
    The latest eruption in the US-China trade dispute pushed a widely watched Treasury-market recession indicator to the highest alert since 2007.
    Neil McMahon reviews last night’s Q and A where Morrison’s slogan ‘have a go to get a go’ got a real bollocking.
    Air Vice-Marshal John Blackburn says that what we are seeing here with Taylor’s announcement about buying millions of barrels of oil from America’s fuel reserve under an emergency strategy to lower the risk of Australia plunging into an economic and national security crisis is marketing instead of real action and a clever accounting move to avoid having to address our real fuel security problem.
    Meanwhile energy giants are arguing for more local oil drilling.
    Jennifer Hewett reckons that if we want an energy solution we shouldn’t ask a politician.
    And Michael Pascoe writes, “Don’t tell the coal-huggers, but Australia’s investment in renewable energy is keeping our economic growth ticking over”. He outlines how the $9 billion increase in renewable energy construction over the three years to 2019-2020 has been greater than the growth in road, rail or other infrastructure.
    And Rob Harris reports that Angus Taylor will unveil a suite of measures designed to shore up domestic gas supplies to protect Australia’s manufacturing industry and reduce power prices.
    Yesterday’s aged care royal commission grimly exposed what happens when for-profit subcontractors get their fingers into it. And the regulator did not fare well either.
    Dana McCauley writes that the world’s top union leader says the Morrison government’s union-busting legislation has sent “shockwaves around the world”, calling on the Senate crossbench to block it to protect workers’ rights.
    Alexandra Smith reports that senior government ministers including the Attorney-General Mark Speakman remain undecided over a bill to decriminalise abortion in NSW, as MPs prepare to debate the reforms today.
    The ACCC chairman has dismissed concerns that some of its proposals to crimp the power of Facebook and Google will inhibit innovation and expose tech secrets.
    Why a code of conduct may not be enough to change the boys’ club culture in the Liberal Party.
    This heartfelt contribution comes from a woman who “murdered“ her son but it was an agonising choice, not a crime.
    Sam Maiden writes on how Kristina Keneally has raised concerns about a loophole that requires the state to issue birth and death certificates for late-term abortions as “medically and ethically confusing”.
    Rod Meyer tells us that the tax office is writing to 17,700 self-managed superannuation funds concerned that they are overexposed to property and are breaching legal obligations on investment.
    Peter Hannam reports on how the Berejiklian government has quietly altered rules for managing grasslands in the state’s south just weeks after a scientific committee deemed them to be critically endangered, a move which has been blasted by environmental groups.
    Along with pensioners, Newstart recipients and low-income earners, the Morrison Government has now abandoned retailers reports Alan Austin.
    Lisa Martin reports that the Coalition is being warned that a renewed push to tighten the character test for visa holders could see a fivefold increase in the number of people facing deportation, with residents from New Zealand and humanitarian refugees disproportionately affected.
    Lee Duffield considers the relevance of the Temporary Exclusion Bill in light of right-wing extremist Raheem Kassam’s Australian visit.
    This group of academics explain why the latest ‘job snob’ claims don’t match the evidence.
    Matthew Knott opines that there is no sign those in power in the US will take even the most basic actions to prevent these mass shootings happening again. One of the country’s two major political parties engaged in a collective project of diversion, delay and denial he says.
    Shane Wright, with the government looking at a bid for the 2032 Olympics, wonders what the games are good for.
    The Washington Post provides proof that Trump may be uniquely unwilling to curtail racist acts of violence.
    The Guardian reports on how Trump blames ‘glorification of violence’ but not guns after the mass shootings.
    According to Moustafa Bayoumi Trump’s response to the weekend massacres show he is an ethical black hole.
    Blame the scroungers. Blame the migrants. The UK Guardian’s John Harris explains how Britain fell for austerity.
    And Emma Brockes says Boris Johnson’s shtick is merely the arrogance that comes from privilege.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe on Pompeo’s visit.

    Cathy Wilcox translates Trump’s response to the shootings.

    John Shakespeare on the rebadging of NSW.

    From Matt Golding

    Mark David wheels Barnaby out.

    Zanetti in the Oval Office.

    Jon Kudelka on Palmer.

    From the US

  13. The next Labor Prime minister will be Paul Howes and he’s not even in parliament yet.
    Relax folks it’s at least 9 years away, maybe six but I doubt it.
    Either that or half the current parliamentary Labor mob will throw their lot in with the LNP and apply for jobs in the front office. And what’s left of the ALP will merge with the Greens and ….

    Otherwise I’m feeling pretty good about things this morning.
    Go Albo!!
    Maintain the rage and enthusiasm son.

  14. i haven’t watched qanda for weeks, but I decided to make the effort last night because I thought the panel might encourage interesting questions, as it did, although there were very few because the answers went on too long and got nowhere. Goldie was very fired up and set out many of the welfare problems, but was drowned out by Adam Creighton from the Australian. Falinski did the usual Liberal waffle, e.g. we feel your pain but the best type of welfare is a job. Gallagher looked uncomfortable and didn’t seem to be well prepared. However, to me the show was dominated by Tony Jones’ encouragement of Zali Steggall, who waved her hands enthusiastically but really said nothing except that more independents in the parliament would fix everything.

    Tony Jones was OK when he was pursuing pollies on Lateline, but his attitude is too confrontational for a “chat show”.

    /rant ends.

  15. Another coal lover.

    The West Australian @westaustralian
    · 15h
    Former PM John Howard has warned of “climate change zealotry” during his keynote speech to the Diggers and Dealers forum, saying the issue has become a “substitute religion”: (link: http://bit.ly/2KjHBgd) bit.ly/2KjHBgd

  16. It’s typical of Morrison that he’s enthusiastically supporting an Olympic Games in SE Qld when he won’t be around to bear the cost (well, we hope not, it will be in 2032). Just a distraction from the real problems of the country.

    But that’s $15 billion not being spent on something else. That’s $15 billion not being spent on local police, on erosion control across Queensland’s beaches, on support for the state’s farmers, on improving local education outcomes or even providing tax relief to existing businesses and residents.

    When the cauldron is extinguished, the rings have come down and the tourists have returned home, all that is left for the locals is a $15 billion-sized hole.

    Economists Robert Baade and Victor Matheson, in a paper released just ahead of the Rio Games, said the “overwhelming conclusion” for cities that host an Olympics is that they end up financial losers.


  17. Morning all. Thanks BK. Australia finally looks to be headed in the right direction with our leaders really lifting their game. But enough of cricket.

    Only foreign policy seems to be “all the way with Dumbo”. We are sleep walking into one, possibly two foreign wars that have nothing to do with our national interest. Meanwhile our domestic economy keeps sliding, with only demonisation of immigrants and the unemployed to distract us from it. Sad 🙁

  18. @mundo

    I am predicting some huge events happening in Australian politics in the next few years. Recently I have come to believe that Australia is only an economic crisis away from a political revolution or some sort.

  19. Barney in Makassar @ #1070 Tuesday, August 6th, 2019 – 7:33 am


    Sounds a bit harsh¿

    I have one requirement;

    Demonstrates a real need to own a gun. 🙂

    To which the likely response would be ‘self defence’, and so it goes, round and round, till everyone owns a gun.

    Typing that silly throw away line actually made me go looking, not extensively, and gun ownership in the USA is subject to the usual survey inaccuracies, but one summary goes like this:

    * 32-42% of Americans live in households with guns, depending on survey

    * a decades long trend downwards in gun ownership has now stopped

    * 30% of Americans own guns

    * white urban male republican would tick the likely gun owner boxes

  20. Tristo @ 8:39:
    “I am predicting some huge events happening in Australian politics in the next few years. Recently I have come to believe that Australia is only an economic crisis away from a political revolution or some sort.”

    Should things go very pear-shaped, Australia will lurch populist right.

  21. Steve777

    Should things go very pear-shaped, Australia will lurch populist right.

    Whatever that means, I think we’re already on the way there.

  22. Doug Cameron @DougCameron51
    It’s time to change unfair right of entry laws that result in workers being denied effective union advice and representation. These bad laws account for the bulk of ABCC cases against CFMEU.
    Labor should admit we got it wrong and campaign to change bad ROE and bargaining laws.

    The governments union busting operation the ABCC has spent $400,000 of taxpayers money pursuing the CFMEU after 2 officials had a cup of tea on a site with their mate. A full bench of the Federal Court has dismissed the ABCC’s appeal against findings they acted unreasonably.

  23. And now the Brexit debacle is about to be added to the Middle East crisis and the USA-China trade war. October 31 is not too far away.

  24. Extinction Rebellion


    “We declare it our duty to act on behalf of our children … we declare ourselves in rebellion against our government,” one protester chanted to the crowd.

    Extinction Rebellion spokesperson Tom Howell told the ABC it was a citizen’s duty to rebel.

    “We cannot be ignored.

    “People are uncomfortable with disrupting other people’s lives but it is the best option we have left to get people talking about the climate emergency, to get the government responding to it and to kind of make the economy pay attention to it because if people can’t go to work then the economy can suffer.

    “Every other form of dissident (sic) has failed.

    “We’ve had our petitions, we’ve had marches, the government is not representing the people,” he said.

    These grassroots community campaigns will escalate.

    In response the government of the day will implement yet more repressive legislation that aim to limit public dissent.

  25. Political donations


    Just 20 per cent of $25 million donated to Tasmanian political parties in the past decade has been publicly disclosed, according to a new report from the University of Tasmania’s Institute for the Study of Social Change.

    The report also recommends donations be reported within seven days in the 12 months prior to the latest day an election can be called
    The state has the weakest political donations laws in the country, but the report released today recommends a significant overhaul to bring Tasmania into line.
    “We just don’t know who has funded the political campaigns of major parties, and that does tend to erode confidence and trust in the political system and in our democracy.

    “Voters can make an informed choice if they’re aware of who is contributing to the political campaigns of candidates and parties.”

  26. Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol particularly the Cartoons.

    The First Dog item put up yesterday was interesting.

    The blazingly obvious solution to budgetary problems – homelessness and unemployment seems to have been overlooked.

    What is required. Enforce the rules around pensions, NDIS, Newstart so that many more of the less well off are forced into homelessness. Amend laws so that parent with children can be accommodated in prisons together.
    Enforce the job seeking rules so that all job seekers fail and then remove those people from the payment system.
    This will have the benefit of
    Creating eyesore centres in the major urban populations from which the blight need removal. Also those now without dosh will be robbing and stealing to support the mandatory drug use they embrace. Chant — Lock em up – Lock em up (repeat)
    Arrest, convict and sentence the offender to lengthy prison terms.
    This will result in the building of new, huge prisons so requiring employment for those long term unfortunates who are not among the convictees.
    Boosting the newly employed will be the guards and required support staff for the prisons.
    By this time there will be no requirement for Newstart or the various Support Payments as all the former recipients will be safely housed (away for old winters song) warm and cozy in a big house right near you.
    The result no homeless – no need for pensions – huge savings and great rejoicing in the land of Oz.



    After a police tip-off, Australian Border Force officers last week inspected a shipping container from the US and found 207kg of methamphetamine hidden in an industrial machine. The drugs have an estimated value of $155 million.

    Apply the regimental calculator I figure that 1 gram of meth sells for about $748 – how much of this stuff must be coming in in tiny lots ❓

    Tulip bulb soaking time. Great excitement chez KayJay. ☮ ☕

  27. ItzaDream says:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2019 at 8:43 am

    Barney in Makassar @ #1070 Tuesday, August 6th, 2019 – 7:33 am


    Sounds a bit harsh¿

    I have one requirement;

    Demonstrates a real need to own a gun.

    To which the likely response would be ‘self defence’, and so it goes, round and round, till everyone owns a gun.

    I wouldn’t consider “self defence” as demonstrating a real need for a gun.

    For me a real need would be, you required one to perform your work or in the case of “sport and recreational” use, the owner would need to be a member of a club, where the gun would be stored when not being used. 🙂

  28. Privacy and civil liberty versus our protection and national security:


    It was bound to happen, and it did. Poorly crafted legislation – designed to allow national security agencies to collect information with the aim of protecting Australians from terrorists – is now reportedly being exploited by a range of different government agencies for other purposes.
    So where to from here? Besides amending the law, it is also time for a wider public debate over the correct balance between our privacy and civil liberty on one hand, and our protection and national security on the other. This is especially important as we become more and more reliant on digital technology to live and work. Just imagine the privacy implications with 5G, when more personal devices are connected to the internet like your smart meter, light bulbs and toaster.

    Warnings about what would happen were ignored by both major parties who passed the legislation.

  29. If we had a federally funded, locally administered Job Guarantee in place, offering a rich array of jobs that are tailored to the needs and preferences of job-seekers, contributing valuable output to the community in the fields of social and community work, environmental services, artistic and cultural work, and small-scale public works, Newstart would effectively become obsolete. We could still keep Newstart in place as an option but very few people would take it if they were guaranteed a suitable job in their local community.

  30. Barney in Makassar @ #29479 Tuesday, August 6th, 2019 – 9:22 am

    ItzaDream says:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2019 at 8:43 am

    Barney in Makassar @ #1070 Tuesday, August 6th, 2019 – 7:33 am


    Sounds a bit harsh¿

    I have one requirement;

    Demonstrates a real need to own a gun.

    To which the likely response would be ‘self defence’, and so it goes, round and round, till everyone owns a gun.

    I wouldn’t consider “self defence” as demonstrating a real need for a gun.

    For me a real need would be, you required one to perform your work or in the case of “sport and recreational” use, the owner would need to be a member of a club, where the gun would be stored when not being used. 🙂

    In other news, just to hand, Franco is still dead and gun love is still a perversion.

  31. Raising the pensionable age might seem logical to economists, but that simply means that unemployed older workers simply have to stay on the criminally low Newstart for longer.

  32. The sun starts to set on the Afghanistan debacle……….
    U.S. preparing to withdraw thousands of troops from Afghanistan in initial deal with Taliban

    The plan has taken shape after months of negotiations between the Taliban and Zalmay Khalilzad, an Afghan-born American diplomat who was appointed by the Trump administration last year to jump-start talks. Officials said an agreement could be finalized ahead of the Afghan presidential election in September, though they cautioned that Taliban leaders could delay and that significant challenges remain.

  33. https://newmatilda.com/2019/08/06/talk-to-the-totalitarian-hand-state-responses-to-the-torture-of-julian-assange-morally-disengaging-media-and-what-it-means-for-us-all/

    The second path heads down totalitarian terrain, currently being blazed by the Trump administration, wherein governments decide who is free to speak and who is not, including who is a ‘journalist’ and who is not, by granting themselves the power to silence those who make them look bad. This pathway not only spells death to democracy and the public’s right to know, it is a recipe for state-sanctioned abuse.
    People kept in the dark about their government’s activities, however, are in no position to demand anything of their governments at all, as political philosopher Hannah Arendt reminds us. Down the pathway of governmental secrecy, citizens can kiss goodbye not only to respect for human rights, but to holding their leaders accountable over any issue in which the interests of the elites and the majority clash, whether fossil fuels, climate emergency, racial and economic inequality and injustice, endless wars, mass surveillance or any other public interest matter one might care to name.
    When states seek to get away with murder and other forms of state-sanctioned abuse, in addition to issuing empty system-justifying platitudes, perpetrators must incite what psychologists call moral disengagement.
    According to psychological research, moral disengagement is stoked by dehumanising and demonising targets among other things. Which is where the establishment media comes in.

    Along with perpetrators and bystanders, psychological understandings of atrocity and collective violence point to instigators as playing a critical role. Instigators are those who control the flow of information. In other words, those who control the media.

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