We now have as much in the way of results out of the federal election as we’re ever going to, with the Australian Electoral Commission finally publishing preference flow by party data. The table below offers a summary and how it compares with the last two election. They confirm that YouGov Galaxy/Newspoll was actually too conservative in giving the Coalition 60% of preferences from One Nation and the United Australia Party, with the actual flow for both parties being nearly identical at just over 65%.
The United Australia Party preference flow to the Coalition was very substantially stronger than the 53.7% recorded by the Palmer United Party in 2013, despite its how-to-vote cards directing preferences to the Coalition on both occasions. A result is also listed for Palmer United in 2016, but it is important to read these numbers in conjunction with the column recording the relevant party’s vote share at the election, which in this case was next to zero (it only contested one lower house seat, and barely registered there). Greens preferences did nothing out of the ordinary, being slightly stronger to Labor than in 2016 and slightly weaker than in 2013.
The combined “others” flow to the Coalition rose from 50.8% to 53.6%, largely reflecting the much smaller footprint of the Nick Xenophon Team/Centre Alliance, whose preferences in 2016 split 60-40 to Labor. This also contributes to the smaller share for “others”, with both figures being closer to where they were in 2013. “Inter-Coalition” refers to where there were both Liberal and Nationals candidates in a seat, some of whose preferences will have flowed to Labor rather than each other. The “share” result in this case records the combined Coalition vote in such seats as a share of the national formal vote.
While we’re here, note the blog’s other two recent posts: Adrian Beaumont’s account of Brecon & Radnorshire by-election, and my own in-depth review of the legal challenges against the election of Josh Frydenberg in Kooyong and Gladys Liu in Chisholm.
briefly
says:
I pay a regular sum – small, but regular – to our host. I pay to post. I think it’s only fair.
_________________________
It’s also good of you not to remind him that you pay, otherwise that might be considered a mild form of extortion.
GG
He was just as great a batsman before sandpaper. Whether he wants it or if they think he might come unstuck again is another thing.
I’d be worried that Head isn’t an automatic best team selection. I think you choose your best team and pick the captain from that. After Payne, Carey is regarded as a future captain.
Tristo says:
Monday, August 5, 2019 at 9:23 pm
Since the Federal Election, I have become convinced that this country is just one economic crisis away from a revolution.
You are entirely deluded. The Australian electorate prefers Tories. They always have. Labor has won just 4 times from Opposition in the modern era (since WW1). The victory in 1929 came at the end of the boom of the 1920s. The victory in 1972 came at the end of the long phase of Post-war prosperity. The victory in 2007 came after many years of uninterrupted economic growth. The single exception to this pattern was the election on Bob Hawke in 1983, following the severe recession that commenced in 1981 with the end of an short-lived resources boom.
If there is a serious recession the Liberals will find a way to exploit it. We already experience recessionary conditions in many parts of the economy – in the very parts that swung most emphatically to the Liberals in May this year.
Labour repression works in favour of the Liberals. They truly understand this. They live by it. Labor has to win despite the repression of labour rather than because of it.
Media Watch sinking it’s ‘teeth’ into regional councils starting up news outlets choosing to direct content to their communities.
Wonder if tonight’s 730Report advertorial for industry super funds will come under its ire.
Diogenes @ #1002 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 9:35 pm
Cummins!
It really is Under 12s. pad them up two at a time!
Tristo
Aren’t you confident that Richard Di Natale’s all out stunt-a-thon and attack on labor is going to yield the doubling of the Green vote as predicted by……Richard Di Natale.
Out of interest how did that guy end up being the leader of the party. A hand full off senators drew names out of a hat?
Confessions @ #1003 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 7:37 pm
Retail super funds!
Morning/evening all.
So Georgia Aquarium has two whale sharks, albeit in a very large pool. Discuss.
And how the hell am I supposed to do anything at this conference today with this test match going on.
Newstart question first up.
Jones throws to Falinski first up. He squibs it.
Australia has a bespoke welfare system. Who knew?
Even Maxwell would have been blushing after that shot by Roy. That’s just flushing your test career down the dunny.
Diogenes @ #1002 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 9:35 pm
I just don’t think he’s temperamentally suited to the captaincy and his involvement in Sandpaper affair showed naiivity and a lack of strategic thinking.
I’d just let him do what he does best and enjoy that.
AFR article written by Tony Maher, national president of the Construction Forestry Maritime Mining and Energy Union, is hardly an unbiased commentator.
He says
“It makes no sense to campaign on reducing emissions in India and China when we are doing such a poor job here at home. It’s the job of those countries to reduce their emissions, not ours. An Australian campaign to deny them coal wouldn’t reduce global emissions. They’d just grumble and buy it elsewhere.”
An argument in lockstep with the Coalition and other right wingers.
GG
I think Ray Lindwall was our last captain who was a fast bowler.
Lyon!!
The quanda audience makes clear it is not happy with both the major parties re Newstart inaction.
They will hate giving Sandy Smith the man of the match award.
I’m sorry but I don’t buy the ALP’s senators claim that the review was serious policy because on one hand she says they needed to see the books which is fair enough, but they also needed to know what people thought. Like you can take this government 2013 /14 review and work from that instead of waiting to win office.
In 2019 Australian coal production – both thermal and metallurgical – was 481.3 million tonnes, or 6.2% of world production, 7727.3 million tonnes. About 30% of Australian coal production is for metallurgical use. If all of Australian thermal coal production ceased and were not replaced by other supplies, global coal production would fall by about 4%.
Coal is a big deal. But it is nowhere near as big a deal as the Lib-Libs or the Lib-kin would have us believe.
Coal production is going to be phased out. This is inevitable. The global ecosystems cannot sustain the unrestrained rise in CO2 emissions. Coal will be the easiest and cheapest fossil fuel to replace. The retreat from coal will happen. It is already happening.
The economic problem we will have will be finding new work for those involved in the coal supply chain. The Liberals will simply dump the workers involved in this contraction. The Greens will rejoice in their liquidation. Labour repression will be applied to coal miners by the Lib-Libs and the Lib-kin, just as it was by Thatcher in the 1970s and 80s. Coal workers are being politically exploited now. They will be politically exploited in years to come. This is just inevitable as long as dysfunction on the centre left persists.
Question about Crown and why both major parties voted against the crossbenchers parliamentary inquiry.
Did Jason Falinski just say that the NSW ICAC is a kangaroo court with no foundation?
Pegasus says:
Monday, August 5, 2019 at 9:47 pm
How is he wrong?
It’s not even an argument, it’s a simple statement of fact.
But you’d get a warm fuzzy feeling if we didn’t export coal, even though it would have zero impact on global emissions.
Pegasus @ #1013 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 9:47 pm
You’re not unbiased either with your cut and paste and selective quoting and forever whining
Maher has a view that is worth discussing.
Only cowards are afraid of a legitimate debate.
Fessy
Yep words to that effect, he also claimed thousands of lives had been ruined, which seems to be an exaggeration.
Davidwh @ #1017 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 9:58 pm
Who’s they?
I believe it will be celebrated!
BinM
I note your repetitive whine about me and what I do.
Diogenes @ #1014 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 9:48 pm
I think Barry Jarman in 1968 and Rod Marsh in India have been our only wicket keepers as Test Captain and only as stop gaps in one Test. So, having a Wickie as permanent Skipper is unusual as well.
The answers from both major party politicians does not go down well with the quanda audience.
Good on Zali taking on the quasi corruption of this govt!
Todd Woodbridge is a good host but having a tennis player for cricket jars.
Pegasus says:
Monday, August 5, 2019 at 10:13 pm
So, unwilling to engage on the point.
GG
Gilchrist did a few games.
Falinski definitely left holding the can tonight.
Diogenes @ #1032 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 10:18 pm
You’re right. I was wrong about Marsh. So, my overall point is valid.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Australia_national_cricket_captains
Diogenes @ #1030 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 10:15 pm
Having John Alexander as a politician jars more!
The IPA has for a long time been a fan of nuclear but why bother when we already have a nuclear power station up and running beaming down on us each day.
Barney in Makassar @ #1029 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 10:15 pm
Always. Always.
An attempt at a withering put-down is the only reply you will ever get.
Mexicanbeemer @ #1034 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 10:32 pm
Because they can’t make any money out of it!
I mean, they must really jones over the fact that there is all this uranium in the ground in Australia and no Nuclear Power Stations to sell it to, or own. 😆
In breaking news, Stevie Wonder has been appointed as an Umpire for the Second Test!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EBNK-WLVUAEB6kv?format=jpg&name=900×900
Greensborough Growler says:
Monday, August 5, 2019 at 10:36 pm
At least he might hear the edges before the ball strikes the pad.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/08/whys-it-so-awkward-to-say-the-economy-is-great/595408/?utm_term=2019-08-05T10%3A00%3A29&utm_content=edit-promo&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR02fCy1FWYo93Z8bsSQ2JpsaDu9DkRzJCG9bRgPCUS8xA9hBdlRGVHREIM
There are 6.1 million unemployed in the United States and 9.0 million hidden unemployed. It is disgusting to describe the economy as “great”.
There is an obscene degree of inequality of wealth and income in the United States.
Public infrastructure and public services are grossly inadequate.
Tens of millions of people are crushed by debt.
It is profoundly stupid to describe the US economy as “great”.
https://njfac.org/index.php/2019/08/02/unemployment-data-july-2019/
Hmmm…getting hard to keep up with teh England fall of wicket. 🙂
briefly @ #1019 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 10:03 pm
Australia is the fourth largest coal producer worldwide, and is responsible for about 38% of the world’s total coal exports. We are (by various estimates) either the largest or the second largets exporter of coal. Around 90% of our coal is exported, and 60% of our coal is thermal coal – i.e. burnt purely for electricity generation.
In other words, Australian coal is indeed a “big deal” in world terms 🙁
Sources:
https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-top-10-coal-producers-
worldwide.htmlhttp://www.worldstopexports.com/coal-exports-country/
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/29/chinas-policies-put-australias-5bn-coal-export-earnings-at-risk
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-11/fact-check-are-there-54000-jobs-in-thermal-coal-mining/11198150
zoomster @ #900 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 6:05 pm
You don’t need to dig down a metre to wombat-proof a fence. All you need to do is lay wire netting on the wombat side of the fence – out to about half a metre is usually enough. Wombats are dumb creatures and always dig at the fence line. They cannot get though the wire netting and soon give up. They never seem to realize that if they backed up half a metre and dug there, they could easily dig under the wire netting.
Jimmy Anderson doesn’t look too enthused to be out there.
Peg,
You are not across all the facts.
Yes, Australian is a large exporter of coal. But most countries have their own local coal reserves, which do not show up on the seaborn coal figures you are quoting.
Also, high-quality Australian coal is blended with local supplies to drastically improve the efficiency of coal-fired generation in most countries that we export to. If we cut our supply, they *will* either replace it from more expensive suppliers, or just use more of their own. It’s unbelievable how much local brown coal is used in SE Asia, and how much is planned.
So, we should focus our efforts on providing these countries with an alternative supply of energy. You may have seem recent reports of undersea HVDC cables to Singapore and Indonesia, supplied with massive amounts of solar in NT and WA. This is the best best way to support our neighbours’ transition away from fossil fuels, in my mind.
Dandy Murray @ #1046 Tuesday, August 6th, 2019 – 12:03 am
Wow. You’ve really swallowed this guff hook, line and sinker, haven’t you?
“Australian Coal: Best for the planet!”
There is about 415GW of solar PV installed worldwide. But last year, about 100GW of new PV cells were manufactured. So PV manufacturing capacity continues to grow super-linearly, while cumulative capacity is still on an exponential curve.
There is no sign of this slowing down, and at this rate, it will quickly eat into thermal electricity generation worldwide.
The engineering challenge is transmitting the generated power to where it is needed.
No, P1, I’m looking at the real situation, not some magic recipe.
The key difference between what I’m saying and the coal lobby is this – Our best chance is tackle the demand for coal by making alternative supplies of energy available, and we should develop a national policy to support this. It could be done via hydrogen exports, but direct transfer of electrical power via the new generation of HVDC technology is really promising.
On the other side of the fence, the coal lobby do not want to undermine demand for coal.
“Greens biggest achievement: Voting against Malaysian solution therefore condemning refugees to Manus forever.”
Greens do not support Manus – Labor does. Albo won’t even call on the government to take up NZ offer to resettle them. That’s how gutless he is. Greens are in favour of processing and resettling refugees – on shore and in the community with adequate security checks or short term detention if need be. Off-shore detention and slow processing/resettling in countries that are not signatories to the refugee convention and have a history of repressive governments is not a ‘solution’ we are willing to support. Labor has failed in leadership on this issue for almost two decades now.