Federal election preference flows

New figures from the AEC confirm the Coalition’s share of Hanson and Palmer preferences was approaching two-thirds, a dramatic increase on past form.

We now have as much in the way of results out of the federal election as we’re ever going to, with the Australian Electoral Commission finally publishing preference flow by party data. The table below offers a summary and how it compares with the last two election. They confirm that YouGov Galaxy/Newspoll was actually too conservative in giving the Coalition 60% of preferences from One Nation and the United Australia Party, with the actual flow for both parties being nearly identical at just over 65%.

The United Australia Party preference flow to the Coalition was very substantially stronger than the 53.7% recorded by the Palmer United Party in 2013, despite its how-to-vote cards directing preferences to the Coalition on both occasions. A result is also listed for Palmer United in 2016, but it is important to read these numbers in conjunction with the column recording the relevant party’s vote share at the election, which in this case was next to zero (it only contested one lower house seat, and barely registered there). Greens preferences did nothing out of the ordinary, being slightly stronger to Labor than in 2016 and slightly weaker than in 2013.

The combined “others” flow to the Coalition rose from 50.8% to 53.6%, largely reflecting the much smaller footprint of the Nick Xenophon Team/Centre Alliance, whose preferences in 2016 split 60-40 to Labor. This also contributes to the smaller share for “others”, with both figures being closer to where they were in 2013. “Inter-Coalition” refers to where there were both Liberal and Nationals candidates in a seat, some of whose preferences will have flowed to Labor rather than each other. The “share” result in this case records the combined Coalition vote in such seats as a share of the national formal vote.

While we’re here, note the blog’s other two recent posts: Adrian Beaumont’s account of Brecon & Radnorshire by-election, and my own in-depth review of the legal challenges against the election of Josh Frydenberg in Kooyong and Gladys Liu in Chisholm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,440 comments on “Federal election preference flows”

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  1. Late Riser

    You know what. I didn’t vote in the election.

    I was depressed even then with the prospect of whatsisname, and figured my vote wouldn’t make a scrap of difference in Monash aka McMillan

    Haven’t received a fine yet.

    Makes me wonder if my vote ever counted . . .

  2. Just signed on and read items 951-956. Can’t say they make much sense. I’ll check over the previous page and see if I can pick up the thread.

  3. Signing off again.

    Had the unfortunate experience of accompanying a friend to the the local surgery recently. Must have caught a cough from there. No sleep last night; bonus was hearing Steve Smith and Matthew Wade getting centuries. So, getting an early night tonight.

    Night bludgers.

  4. Pegasus @ #913 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 6:34 pm

    Mungo MacCallum is angry re Crown and corruption

    https://www.johnmenadue.com/mungo-maccallum-gambling-stench-hits-nostrils/

    But when the Greens and crossbenchers demanded a public inquiry the attorney general, Christian Porter, with the support of a supine Labor Party, knocked them back with an ineffective alternative that would shield the politicians and their staffers from scrutiny.

    This looks horribly like a stitch up – an escalation of the corruption it was supposed to prevent. It not just fails the smell test – it stinks to high heaven. And fact that both major parties have received lavish donations from Crown, and that at least two former ministers, the Liberals’ Helen Coonan and Labor’s Mark Arbib, have been given well-paid sinecures by the company, only compounds the stench.
    :::
    The coalition has reluctantly foreshadowed a version that would have more loopholes in it than Morrison’s code of ministerial conduct, and although Labor has promised something more robust, the events of last week have made that pledge seem extremely dubious.
    :::
    So back to the bipartisan blather about the need for national security, border protection and the rest of the bullshit masquerading as policy. The politicians on both sides seem determined to destroy the foundations of the system of government in the pretence of saving it.

    It’s a stench alright !

    The LibNat-Labor cartel arrangement is stinking up the parliament and their partisans are ok with it.

  5. In the Gold Coast hinterland, there are road signs aplenty warning drivers to be aware of koalas. No one I’ve spoken to have seen a koala for some twenty years. Perhaps the signs are a little late. We still, though, see the odd wombat, possum, plenty of screeching cockatoos, lorikeets, the odd eastern rosella.

  6. “BK, Aussies tonight? Smith to bowl a few leggies?”

    Wot..Poms to cop it from Smith with BOTH bat and ball??

    That would just be just soooooo cruel….but i like it. 🙂

  7. Was that an industry super funds are bad, AMP good segment on 7.30?

    Is this fair balance from the ABC.

    I thought retail funds & in particular AMP were nailed at the financial services royal commission.

    I must be confused.

  8. Rex Douglas:

    [‘It’s a stench alright!’]

    I have to agree with you. The investigation announced by Porter can’t get to the bottom of it. Labor must be more bold, even if it’s adversely affected. The MPs involved must be named and shamed, as well as the bureaucrats who facilitated the fast-tracking of visas for the Chinese so-called “Whales”.

  9. Mavis @7:49PM.

    “The investigation announced by Porter can’t get to the bottom of it.” Because it’s not meant to.

    “Labor must be more bold, even if it’s adversely affected.” Agree. It’s 3 years out from the election. The Government doesn’t want a proper enquiry – that’s a very good reason to have one.

    “The MPs involved must be named and shamed” … and drummed out of Parliament, but that won’t happen. Should any Labor MPs be caught up, boot them from the party.

    “as well as the bureaucrats who facilitated the fast-tracking of visas for the Chinese so-called “Whales”.” Yes, but make sure it’s not just the small fry taking the fall.

  10. sprocket_ says:
    Monday, August 5, 2019 at 9:07 pm

    Payne’s captaincy is keeping him in the side

    Apparently there’s been talk about Head being next in line.

  11. sustainable future says:
    Monday, August 5, 2019 at 2:29 pm
    Funny that 82% of the labor hating and LNP-enabling greens directed their preferences to Labor

    I’ll bet a more than 18% of labor voters preferenced the LNP above the greens.

    it’s almost as though some of the old labor right die-/blow- hards here don’t know what they are talking about.

    Green voters are systematically defrauded by the Greens Party. While their voters are Labor-positive in the whole, the Greens themselves thoroughly despise Labor, as we can see here at PB every hour.

    The Greens are Lib-kin. They hate Labor. They campaign against Labor at all times and in all places. They run errands for the Liberals.

  12. Hi kezza2! Good to see you up and Bludging again. 🙂

    I had a cough last week as well. Not many other flu-like symptoms though. I finally figured out that it was a really bad dose of hayfever with the plants flowering early due to a hotter than normal July. It both dried and irritated my throat so much I couldn’t stop coughing! So I tried an antihistamine. It helped. Not greatly, but it helped. Maybe that’s what is wrong with you as well? 🙂

  13. Since the Federal Election, I have become convinced that this country is just one economic crisis away from a revolution. Because the amount of distrust towards our politicians in this country, is simply phenomenal, especially among the young.

  14. zoomster says:
    Monday, August 5, 2019 at 4:53 pm
    Always find it flattering when someone suggests I’ve been paid to post.

    Must mean my posts are too awesome to belong to an amateur.

    I pay a regular sum – small, but regular – to our host. I pay to post. I think it’s only fair.


  15. Tristo says:
    Monday, August 5, 2019 at 9:23 pm

    Since the Federal Election, I have become convinced that this country is just one economic crisis away from a revolution. Because the amount of distrust towards our politicians in this country, is simply phenomenal, especially among the young.

    Ya revolutions work out so well.

  16. frednk @ #997 Monday, August 5th, 2019 – 9:26 pm


    Tristo says:
    Monday, August 5, 2019 at 9:23 pm

    Since the Federal Election, I have become convinced that this country is just one economic crisis away from a revolution. Because the amount of distrust towards our politicians in this country, is simply phenomenal, especially among the young.

    Ya revolutions work out so well.

    They’re working OK for Nathan Lyon atm!

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